So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.
Expect a poll boost for May.
A half decent opposition, etc., etc....
Theresa May confirmed the aid budget but there will be a review into how it is spent. She affirmed pensioners were £1250 better off and gave no indication on the content of the manefesto relating to the triple lock and certainly no mention of VAT. And by the way, I did listen to her live
Before anyone jumps to conclusions let us wait for the manifesto and at least it will be the genuine article not like labour's ridiculous 'rolling manifesto'
Sounds to me like you're jumping to conclusions that Labour's rolling manifesto will be ridiculous.
The concept of a rolling manifesto is ridiculous, its content will be even worse
I think it will be too, however we haven't seen it yet, and I was pointing out that an admonishment of jumping to conclusions was included in the same sentence which already jumped to one. It might be the correct one, but then so might the one being admonished.
Betfair Sportsbook have not, as yet, cancelled my modest 25/1 bet on the LibDems winning Richmond Park, although by the same token they haven't relisted this and many other constituency markets. Not so Paddy Power, their sister company, who have the LibDems on offer at 8/13 with the Tories available at 5/4. Btw, shouldn't the Tories re-take this seat, bearing in mind Zac Goldsmith's previous 23,000+ majority? I suppose that might well depend on whether he messes things up for the Blue Team again by standing as an independent
So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.
Expect a poll boost for May.
A half decent opposition, etc., etc....
Oh please, pensioners are not being screwed over by any means and we're still in deep economic shit, if one good thing that comes of this is that the Tories don't duck some hard decisions for fear of upsetting the grey vote, it shall be worth it.
As a member of the grey vote I very much agree. The triple lock was, in my view, an unnecessary gimmick put forward by a couple of rich kids who didn't understand the concerns of those richer in years. After the election the new government should ditch it and they will find that doing so will not cost them a single vote.
4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
Depends on who PC put up as the candidate. If it's Leanne Wood those odds look about right. However, I doubt if she'll actually stand when the crunch comes.
Labour's campaign showing about as much evidence of success as the Corbyn Relaunch thus far.
And Labour now has 47 days left in which to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and sustained by the support of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
Listening to May today she was playing the competence card with an appeal for every vote to strengthen her in Brexit negotiations with Prime Ministers, Presidents and Officials throughout Europe. When she said this I momentarily put Corbyn in the same position and I couldn't help but laugh outloud. My wife asked why I had suddenly laughed and I told her and she also collapsed with laughter.
Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?
Yeah but that was in the (supra)national interest :
I remember some Conservative MEP published a list of which MEPs got audited by the European parliament.
Every single one was an EUsceptic.
Coincidence I tell ya!
(To give them some credit, the Court of Auditors of the EU, which has refused to sign off on EU accounts for a couple of years is fiercely independent. Its head went on to be (briefly) a UKIP MEP.)
Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?
Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.
And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.
The truth is that 520 to 480 is not that close: almost 10% more people voted one way than the other.
Percentages matter. But 52:48 is not actually that close.
Thanks for the reply, Robert. I know that percentages matter. But I am still interested in the answer to my question.
The answer is that - assuming resources scale linearly with population - then percentages, and only percentages, matter.
I guess I am questioning the assumption of scaling linearly.
That's probably a sensible assumption to challenge. In a group of 20, 14 people will be actively engaged in the decision and persuasion process. In a group of 20 million, because people feel they will not be heard and can have no influence, it's probably only half a million or so.
Which also tells you that you probably need a particularly tight demos in a large entity, but can get away with a much more diverse one in a small entity (such as Switzerland).
Betfair Sportsbook have not, as yet, cancelled my modest 25/1 bet on the LibDems winning Richmond Park, although by the same token they haven't relisted this and many other constituency markets. Not so Paddy Power, their sister company, who have the LibDems on offer at 8/13 with the Tories available at 5/4. Btw, shouldn't the Tories re-take this seat, bearing in mind Zac Goldsmith's previous 23,000+ majority? I suppose that might well depend on whether he messes things up for the Blue Team again by standing as an independent
PaddyPower have relisted (same company, same odds, same issue). They also haven't cancelled my bet, but the new odds are 8/13 Olney, 5/4 Tory. No "Independent" option and I think it unlikely - Zac was independent in name only and fully supported by the local party - even someone with his vanity won't stab them in the back.
I think the odds are too tight on Olney, presumably to balance the books.
I'd be annoyed if they cancelled. The odds added up yesterday - they'd not intended to put 1/25 and instead put 25/1 due to fat fingers - they'd just forgotten there was a by-election. And I don't think they will now - they would've done it before relisting or very soon thereafter.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
Michael Crick: if Corbyn loses the election he may WANT to continue as Labour leader.
Fixed it for you...
Edit - come on voters of Islington, do your duty to your country and the Labour Party and vote ABC.
That would be both hilarious and save Labour a major headache.
I note he won the seat on 40.4% in 1983 and is on 60% now. Well done him (admittedly that was an SDP thing).
It would be fitting if the man who is about to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1931 were to emulate the unfortunate Henderson and lose his own seat.
If Jon Ashworth were the lone Shadow Cabinet survivor he could then do a Lansbury and take over.
The fact I have tipped him at 80/1 as next Labour leader is irrelevant in this post!
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Harrow the independant labour vote went mainly to the conservatives
Michael Crick: if Corbyn loses the election he may WANT to continue as Labour leader.
Fixed it for you...
Edit - come on voters of Islington, do your duty to your country and the Labour Party and vote ABC.
That would be both hilarious and save Labour a major headache.
I note he won the seat on 40.4% in 1983 and is on 60% now. Well done him (admittedly that was an SDP thing).
It would be fitting if the man who is about to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1931 were to emulate the unfortunate Henderson and lose his own seat.
If Jon Ashworth were the lone Shadow Cabinet survivor he could then do a Lansbury and take over.
The fact I have tipped him at 80/1 as next Labour leader is irrelevant in this post!
Labour are not going to lose Islington North.
The "horrified remainers" are mainly in the much more salubrious (& marginal) Islington South.
"Listening to May today she was playing the competence card with an appeal for every vote to strengthen her in Brexit negotiations with Prime Ministers, Presidents and Officials throughout Europe."
I think that line will serve her well. It will encourage the formerly non-voters who turned out to vote "out" in the referendum to turn out again to see the job done. It will also attract those who voted UKIP in 2015 for much the same reason.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
Anyone under the misapprehension that teachers are a bunch of Trots, should have a look at the reaction on EduTwitter to the Labour PEB with the fake 'lesson' on school cuts.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
Labour's campaign showing about as much evidence of success as the Corbyn Relaunch thus far.
And Labour now has 47 days left in which to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and sustained by the support of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
Slightly worrying for Labour that only 36% feel that at all, to be honest. Particularly given the publics attitude to politicians in general.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
32 and 22 are bullish for the opposition parties; is our enthusiasm finally getting to Robert?
Michael Crick: if Corbyn loses the election he may WANT to continue as Labour leader.
Fixed it for you...
Edit - come on voters of Islington, do your duty to your country and the Labour Party and vote ABC.
That would be both hilarious and save Labour a major headache.
I note he won the seat on 40.4% in 1983 and is on 60% now. Well done him (admittedly that was an SDP thing).
It would be fitting if the man who is about to lead Labour to their worst defeat since 1931 were to emulate the unfortunate Henderson and lose his own seat.
If Jon Ashworth were the lone Shadow Cabinet survivor he could then do a Lansbury and take over.
The fact I have tipped him at 80/1 as next Labour leader is irrelevant in this post!
Labour are not going to lose Islington North.
The "horrified remainers" are mainly in the much more salubrious (& marginal) Islington South.
I'm easygoing. Watching the Jezziah and the pseudo-Colonel both lose would be even better!
I have been mulling over PC targets by the way. On the assumption they have had a rare burst of sanity I am assuming they will particularly target four seats - Rhondda, Llanelli, Ynys Mon and (a longer shot in my view) Ceredigion. I imagine on a really good night for them Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent might come into play too, but those look very remote chances.
Is there any word or even rumour on candidates in those seats yet? I was particularly wondering if Helen Mary Jones might be persuaded to fight Llanelli. If she were that seat looks quite vulnerable to me.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
32 and 22 are bullish for the opposition parties; is our enthusiasm finally getting to Robert?
Anyone under the misapprehension that teachers are a bunch of Trots, should have a look at the reaction on EduTwitter to the Labour PEB with the fake 'lesson' on school cuts.
Scathing doesn't even begin to cover it.
Just did a search for that phrase, immediately came across this comment
Aaaargh, #edutwitter is still dominated by backward looking, Tory traditionalists. How can u teach in state school & be a Tory?
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Do you think that Westminster North might see the same pattern or is it too socially polarised ?
So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.
Expect a poll boost for May.
A half decent opposition, etc., etc....
Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
They don't want to piss off India before getting a trade deal.
I think nothing goes to India now, apart from tailing off a few female emancipation projects in rural areas.
If we want a trade deal with South Sudan though...
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
Do you have a source for that? Not that I'm doubting you, I would just be interested to read it.
Just seen it. OMG. So Labour intends to patronise voters into submission.
I hope Mr Dancer's space cannon is fully serviced I think almost everyone involved in Labours campaign might need to be fired into the heart of the Sun.
I was happily surprised that it was on message, Education the theme of the day, but using school children as proxy for the electorate is ill advised to say the least.
The Greens' PPB depicting the politicians as children was much better.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
Don't you believe it. There is a lot of anger in Wales with labour's mismanagement of the NHS and education and that is before Corbyn comes into the picture. Also remember Wales voted leave
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Is that 22% of the vote you are predicting for the Lib Dems there, Mr. Robert? How many seats do you think they will get? I only ask as last time you predicted 11 seats minimum and 22% for a party that has consistently polled at or below 10% for the past few years seems a stretch.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
32 and 22 are bullish for the opposition parties; is our enthusiasm finally getting to Robert?
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
I also wonder about that. The wildcard is May. If she can frame it as an election about her, she's got a better chance. From her and the campaigns announcements so far, it appears they've twigged that.
A lot of the switchers seem a lot more comfortable with saying they're voting for May rather than voting Tory.
And yet again there is this implicit idea that somehow Leave won by deception or by cooked books or whatever.
Leave won because the public voted to leave. Binary choice, binary result. People were not tricked and no amount of money spent would probably not have changed it.
Those who voted leave wanted to have greater control over the government, rules and laws of their country. Its called nation state sovereignty versus having less control.
Get over it.
France: Missing jigsaw pieces over last nights events. There is some question on the detail of the IS claim,in particular the name. Theres others involved perhaps facilitated/encouraged but possibly someone did not execute as expected, or yet. Little doubt so far though that there is an IS angle but just how central the cell role is is now less certain.
I don't know, but we all know there are thousands upon thousands who think the same thing, it is bizarre. It's not like sometimes such people say things like that in the heat of the moment, they consistently think it after plenty of reflection. And yes, I know there are people who think all leftists are scum of the earth.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Do you think that Westminster North might see the same pattern or is it too socially polarised ?
I don't know the constituency well enough to have a judgement.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Any chance for the LDs in Hampstead? they had a good candidate last time.
Anyone under the misapprehension that teachers are a bunch of Trots, should have a look at the reaction on EduTwitter to the Labour PEB with the fake 'lesson' on school cuts.
Scathing doesn't even begin to cover it.
Just did a search for that phrase, immediately came across this comment
Aaaargh, #edutwitter is still dominated by backward looking, Tory traditionalists. How can u teach in state school & be a Tory?
How indeed?
Because Angela Rayner is an even bigger twat and even thicker than Nicky Morgan, who knows bugger all about education in general and the problems facing the state sector in particular and who would wreck state schooling entirely in twelve months (as I pointed out yesterday with a certain asperity towards a couple of less than well-informed supporters of hers)?
It's just a thought. Not one that will occur to a group as unselfaware as Labour members, of course.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
Same here. Tough to follow through on that.
With respect you do not know Wales. Remember I live in Wales under labour, am awaiting a bilateral hernia operation and do not expect it be done in under 18 months
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
Don't you believe it. There is a lot of anger in Wales with labour's mismanagement of the NHS and education and that is before Corbyn comes into the picture. Also remember Wales voted leave
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Any chance for the LDs in Hampstead? they had a good candidate last time.
No. Sadly their excellent candidate did not do well.
And yet again there is this implicit idea that somehow Leave won by deception or by cooked books or whatever.
Leave won because the public voted to leave. Binary choice, binary result. People were not tricked and no amount of money spent would probably not have changed it.
Those who voted leave wanted to have greater control over the government, rules and laws of their country. Its called nation state sovereignty versus having less control.
Get over it.
.
Some people wanted different things, some probably were tricked by misleading campaigning, but of course misleading happens on all sides, and each sides points out where the other side is misleading, so people exist in a space where they can assess the claims and counter claims, they just choose not to.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Is that 22% of the vote you are predicting for the Lib Dems there, Mr. Robert? How many seats do you think they will get? I only ask as last time you predicted 11 seats minimum and 22% for a party that has consistently polled at or below 10% for the past few years seems a stretch.
I believe RCS is giving a prediction for the Hampstead and Kilburn constituency.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Is that 22% of the vote you are predicting for the Lib Dems there, Mr. Robert? How many seats do you think they will get? I only ask as last time you predicted 11 seats minimum and 22% for a party that has consistently polled at or below 10% for the past few years seems a stretch.
In Hampstead! My post should have made that clear :-)
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
Do you have a source for that? Not that I'm doubting you, I would just be interested to read it.
Until Monday comes, here is a helpful table of Welsh marginals culled from elsewhere:
I'm not sure what the full list of ten is going to turn out to be. I've previously seen reports highlighting eight potential Labour losses: Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, and Cardiff Central.
Such an outcome would result in a Labour wipeout in North Wales.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
I've a nagging suspicion that the Lab-Con switchers just won't bother to vote when push comes to shove.
Don't you believe it. There is a lot of anger in Wales with labour's mismanagement of the NHS and education and that is before Corbyn comes into the picture. Also remember Wales voted leave
4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
Depends on who PC put up as the candidate. If it's Leanne Wood those odds look about right. However, I doubt if she'll actually stand when the crunch comes.
PP's odds have now weakened to 4/6. Irrespective of the opposition, were Labour to lose Rhondda, that really would represent a disaster on a truly massive scale. FWIW Baxter has them almost 17% ahead of Plaid on 43.7% vs 27.0% I'm backing Labour to hold but DYOR.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Do you think that Westminster North might see the same pattern or is it too socially polarised ?
I don't know the constituency well enough to have a judgement.
Is that some form of London district snobbery or are you just being shy ?
PB would be a lot quieter if people who didn't have enough knowledge of a subject refrained from passing judgement.
4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
Depends on who PC put up as the candidate. If it's Leanne Wood those odds look about right. However, I doubt if she'll actually stand when the crunch comes.
PP's odds have now weakened to 4/6. Irrespective of the opposition, were Labour to lose Rhondda, that really would represent a disaster on a truly massive scale. FWIW Baxter has them almost 17% ahead of Plaid on 43.7% vs 27.0% I'm backing Labour to hold but DYOR.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
Paddy Power has increased its over/under fulcrum bet on Tory seats to 384.5. equivalent to the Blues securing a majority of +/- 120 seats ...... a huge target, priced at 5/6 either way. I'm struggling to see them doing this well, but DYOR.
Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
How many Conservative Remain voters do you think will go to the Lib Dems?
Very few....
I think the Conservatives will see their total number of votes fall slightly, while Labour will lose 30-40% of theirs. The LibDems will probable double or treble their votes, but still finish well off the pace in third.
42:32:22
Do you think that Westminster North might see the same pattern or is it too socially polarised ?
I don't know the constituency well enough to have a judgement.
Is that some form of London district snobbery or are you just being shy ?
PB would be a lot quieter if people who didn't have enough knowledge of a subject refrained from passing judgement.
It's an unusual seat - a core of large council and ex-council estates; all the tower blocks you see when driving out of London along the A40 Westway, mixed with some very wealthy areas along the fringes of Notting Hill in the south and St John's Wood in the north. Usually I'd guess it would be reasonably solid for Labour, but if the tower blocks don't bother to turn out and the Waitrose shoppers of SJW and NH look elsewhere, who knows....
Defecting during the campaign would be kinda fun....
I hear she is planning on defecting two minutes before close of nominations, and that Nick Palmer ex-MP will be calling on the people of Broxtowe to support her.
"Listening to May today she was playing the competence card with an appeal for every vote to strengthen her in Brexit negotiations with Prime Ministers, Presidents and Officials throughout Europe."
I think that line will serve her well. It will encourage the formerly non-voters who turned out to vote "out" in the referendum to turn out again to see the job done. It will also attract those who voted UKIP in 2015 for much the same reason.
And to think that so many Labour sympathisers had a good snigger about Ukip, back when their party was in its pomp. Thought the split on the Right would cripple the Tories permanently. How wrong they were.
In the long run, Ukip has turned out to be a huge asset to the Conservative Party. First a lot of the nuttier Tory members jumped ship to back it, which can only have helped Cameron to get elected as leader. Then, it started creaming off ex-Labour voters who wouldn't contemplate voting for the Conservative Party itself, but were prepared to switch to a socially conservative alternative. And now, finally, it would appear that Ukip has acted as a gateway drug for Lab to Con switchers: as the Ukip vote declines, virtually all of the departing 2015 Ukip voters appear to be moving over into the Tory column, not splintering along the lines of their former allegiances.
Given that Ukip won nearly 4 million votes in 2015, even if May can only secure the backing of half of them that'll still be almost 2 million extra supporters - easily more than the entire SNP vote, and not too far short of the entire Lib Dem vote at that election. That's a very substantial boost.
Yes, I suppose it will be much easier to walk away from Labour for many if they are in a seat where the realistic winning alternatives are the Lib Dems, Greens or Plaid.
In Wales labour voters are more likely to go to the conservatives. Welsh poll due on monday shows upto 10 mainly conservative gains from labour
Do you have a source for that? Not that I'm doubting you, I would just be interested to read it.
Until Monday comes, here is a helpful table of Welsh marginals culled from elsewhere:
I'm not sure what the full list of ten is going to turn out to be. I've previously seen reports highlighting eight potential Labour losses: Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, and Cardiff Central.
Such an outcome would result in a Labour wipeout in North Wales.
Thank you, that is interesting.
I'm increasingly out of touch with Wales. However, although not officially marginal I could see them losing both Swansea West (to the LDs) and Llanelli (to Plaid) under the right circumstances while holding Ynys Mon (where they tend to be very loyal to sitting MPs - no incumbent defeated in 67 years),
Defecting during the campaign would be kinda fun....
I hear she is planning on defecting two minutes before close of nominations, and that Nick Palmer ex-MP will be calling on the people of Broxtowe to support her.
I heard Anna two days ago and she was fulsome in her support for Theresa May
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
Which is why I have been saying that the default PB assumption that a defeated but sane party will somehow gift Cooper or some such the leadership this autumn is perhaps a tad optimistic.....
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
I shall not be voting Labour here in Norwich North on May 4th - nor on June 8th.
Defecting during the campaign would be kinda fun....
I hear she is planning on defecting two minutes before close of nominations, and that Nick Palmer ex-MP will be calling on the people of Broxtowe to support her.
I heard Anna two days ago and she was fulsome in her support for Theresa May
4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
Depends on who PC put up as the candidate. If it's Leanne Wood those odds look about right. However, I doubt if she'll actually stand when the crunch comes.
PP's odds have now weakened to 4/6. Irrespective of the opposition, were Labour to lose Rhondda, that really would represent a disaster on a truly massive scale. FWIW Baxter has them almost 17% ahead of Plaid on 43.7% vs 27.0% I'm backing Labour to hold but DYOR.
Have PP got individual constituency markets ?
If so could you give a link as I can't find them.
On PP's website go to A-Z Betting > Politics > English Constituencies A - D, etc. NB Scotland, Wales & NI constituencies ar listed separately.
Anyone under the misapprehension that teachers are a bunch of Trots, should have a look at the reaction on EduTwitter to the Labour PEB with the fake 'lesson' on school cuts.
Scathing doesn't even begin to cover it.
Just did a search for that phrase, immediately came across this comment
Aaaargh, #edutwitter is still dominated by backward looking, Tory traditionalists. How can u teach in state school & be a Tory?
How indeed?
Because Angela Rayner is an even bigger twat and even thicker than Nicky Morgan, who knows bugger all about education in general and the problems facing the state sector in particular and who would wreck state schooling entirely in twelve months (as I pointed out yesterday with a certain asperity towards a couple of less than well-informed supporters of hers)?
It's just a thought. Not one that will occur to a group as unselfaware as Labour members, of course.
Angela Rayner was called out on Twitter for her inability to spell and differentiate between 'there, their and they're' and retorted with some 'university of life, me' rubbish.
As a teacher, I was horrified (which the young middle class hobby socialist in my family was bewildered by).
I don't vote Tory, but exhibiting a basic grasp of the English Language and respect for our education system is a pre-requisite for anyone looking for my support as Ed. Sec or Shadow Ed.Sec.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
Which is why I have been saying that the default PB assumption that a defeated but sane party will somehow gift Cooper or some such the leadership this autumn is perhaps a tad optimistic.....
If Corbyn won another leadership election Labour would split. The new party could well become the official opposition. I think he'll lose, though.
"Listening to May today she was playing the competence card with an appeal for every vote to strengthen her in Brexit negotiations with Prime Ministers, Presidents and Officials throughout Europe."
I think that line will serve her well. It will encourage the formerly non-voters who turned out to vote "out" in the referendum to turn out again to see the job done. It will also attract those who voted UKIP in 2015 for much the same reason.
And to think that so many Labour sympathisers had a good snigger about Ukip, back when their party was in its pomp. Thought the split on the Right would cripple the Tories permanently. How wrong they were.
In the long run, Ukip has turned out to be a huge asset to the Conservative Party. First a lot of the nuttier Tory members jumped ship to back it, which can only have helped Cameron to get elected as leader. Then, it started creaming off ex-Labour voters who wouldn't contemplate voting for the Conservative Party itself, but were prepared to switch to a socially conservative alternative. And now, finally, it would appear that Ukip has acted as a gateway drug for Lab to Con switchers: as the Ukip vote declines, virtually all of the departing 2015 Ukip voters appear to be moving over into the Tory column, not splintering along the lines of their former allegiances.
Given that Ukip won nearly 4 million votes in 2015, even if May can only secure the backing of half of them that'll still be almost 2 million extra supporters - easily more than the entire SNP vote, and not too far short of the entire Lib Dem vote at that election. That's a very substantial boost.
I was at a closed presentation by the LibDems' former campaign supremo pre-2015 which included a slide about UKIP headed 'introducing our new best friend'. Even then I was somewhat sceptical, and it remains my view that in a lot of Tory held seats it was mostly a chunk of our voters that went out and voted for ukip. I can only hope that this time both they and the party will show a bit more sense.
I'm easygoing. Watching the Jezziah and the pseudo-Colonel both lose would be even better!
I have been mulling over PC targets by the way. On the assumption they have had a rare burst of sanity I am assuming they will particularly target four seats - Rhondda, Llanelli, Ynys Mon and (a longer shot in my view) Ceredigion. I imagine on a really good night for them Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent might come into play too, but those look very remote chances.
Is there any word or even rumour on candidates in those seats yet? I was particularly wondering if Helen Mary Jones might be persuaded to fight Llanelli. If she were that seat looks quite vulnerable to me.
Plaid certainly have an opportunity -- but they have a history of missing opportunities. The seats they hold all look safe, offering them the remarkable opportunity to attack elsewhere.
If Leanne Wood stands, I would expect both Rhondda and Llanelli to tilt to Plaid. If Leanne doesn’t stand, then the candidate last time (Shelley Rees-Owen) nonetheless got a 9 per cent swing from Labour. Labour could still be in some trouble.
I do hope Helen Mary Jones can be persuaded to fight Llanelli.
I am more optimistic about Ceredigion, where Mark Williams has been embroiled in his own election expenses travails. I think it could fall.
I suppose Ynys Mon might fall to the Tories, if the folk there have forgotten how the last Tory MP for Ynys Mon was hauled off to prison. Whatever, Albert Owen has done remarkably well in holding it for 4 elections with wafer-thin majorities. But his race has been run, and I’d still make Plaid favourites for that seat.
One of the best performances in the Welsh Assembly election was in Blaenau Gwent, where Nigel Copner reduced the Labour majority to 650. So, I’d agree Blaenau Gwent is an opportunity.
Also, Ann Clwyd is (I gather) getting very frail, and so I’d be surprised if she ran in Cynon Valley. No doubt, Labour will impose some completely unsuitable candidate from London with the flimsiest connection to the constituency ....
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I thought the Tory party becoming the Miliband Labour Party was the whole point?
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
The Conservative Party has a fantastic history of absorbing political threats to its position into its movement.
Comments
Not so Paddy Power, their sister company, who have the LibDems on offer at 8/13 with the Tories available at 5/4.
Btw, shouldn't the Tories re-take this seat, bearing in mind Zac Goldsmith's previous 23,000+ majority? I suppose that might well depend on whether he messes things up for the Blue Team again by standing as an independent
Edit - come on voters of Islington, do your duty to your country and the Labour Party and vote ABC.
Hampstead is an almost certain loss.
Keir Starmer may well see his vote go up, though.
You know his time is up when he becomes a joke
(To give them some credit, the Court of Auditors of the EU, which has refused to sign off on EU accounts for a couple of years is fiercely independent. Its head went on to be (briefly) a UKIP MEP.)
I note he won the seat on 40.4% in 1983 and is on 60% now. Well done him (admittedly that was an SDP thing).
http://tinyurl.com/k9ztpn3
Which also tells you that you probably need a particularly tight demos in a large entity, but can get away with a much more diverse one in a small entity (such as Switzerland).
I think the odds are too tight on Olney, presumably to balance the books.
I'd be annoyed if they cancelled. The odds added up yesterday - they'd not intended to put 1/25 and instead put 25/1 due to fat fingers - they'd just forgotten there was a by-election. And I don't think they will now - they would've done it before relisting or very soon thereafter.
If Jon Ashworth were the lone Shadow Cabinet survivor he could then do a Lansbury and take over.
The fact I have tipped him at 80/1 as next Labour leader is irrelevant in this post!
The "horrified remainers" are mainly in the much more salubrious (& marginal) Islington South.
I think that line will serve her well. It will encourage the formerly non-voters who turned out to vote "out" in the referendum to turn out again to see the job done. It will also attract those who voted UKIP in 2015 for much the same reason.
Scathing doesn't even begin to cover it.
42:32:22
http://m.bathchronicle.co.uk/bath-man-under-investigation-for-tory-death-tweet/story-30285491-detail/story.html
I have been mulling over PC targets by the way. On the assumption they have had a rare burst of sanity I am assuming they will particularly target four seats - Rhondda, Llanelli, Ynys Mon and (a longer shot in my view) Ceredigion. I imagine on a really good night for them Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent might come into play too, but those look very remote chances.
Is there any word or even rumour on candidates in those seats yet? I was particularly wondering if Helen Mary Jones might be persuaded to fight Llanelli. If she were that seat looks quite vulnerable to me.
Aaaargh, #edutwitter is still dominated by backward looking, Tory traditionalists. How can u teach in state school & be a Tory?
How indeed?
If we want a trade deal with South Sudan though...
The Greens' PPB depicting the politicians as children was much better.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
A lot of the switchers seem a lot more comfortable with saying they're voting for May rather than voting Tory.
Leave won because the public voted to leave. Binary choice, binary result. People were not tricked and no amount of money spent would probably not have changed it.
Those who voted leave wanted to have greater control over the government, rules and laws of their country. Its called nation state sovereignty versus having less control.
Get over it.
France: Missing jigsaw pieces over last nights events. There is some question on the detail of the IS claim,in particular the name. Theres others involved perhaps facilitated/encouraged but possibly someone did not execute as expected, or yet. Little doubt so far though that there is an IS angle but just how central the cell role is is now less certain.
It's just a thought. Not one that will occur to a group as unselfaware as Labour members, of course.
https://www.city-journal.org/html/french-coming-apart-15125.html
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
https://twitter.com/anna_soubry/status/855492824028127232
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hampstead_and_Kilburn_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/855352870983618560
I'm not sure what the full list of ten is going to turn out to be. I've previously seen reports highlighting eight potential Labour losses: Ynys Mon, Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, and Cardiff Central.
Such an outcome would result in a Labour wipeout in North Wales.
I'm backing Labour to hold but DYOR.
PB would be a lot quieter if people who didn't have enough knowledge of a subject refrained from passing judgement.
If so could you give a link as I can't find them.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
I'm struggling to see them doing this well, but DYOR.
In the long run, Ukip has turned out to be a huge asset to the Conservative Party. First a lot of the nuttier Tory members jumped ship to back it, which can only have helped Cameron to get elected as leader. Then, it started creaming off ex-Labour voters who wouldn't contemplate voting for the Conservative Party itself, but were prepared to switch to a socially conservative alternative. And now, finally, it would appear that Ukip has acted as a gateway drug for Lab to Con switchers: as the Ukip vote declines, virtually all of the departing 2015 Ukip voters appear to be moving over into the Tory column, not splintering along the lines of their former allegiances.
Given that Ukip won nearly 4 million votes in 2015, even if May can only secure the backing of half of them that'll still be almost 2 million extra supporters - easily more than the entire SNP vote, and not too far short of the entire Lib Dem vote at that election. That's a very substantial boost.
I'm increasingly out of touch with Wales. However, although not officially marginal I could see them losing both Swansea West (to the LDs) and Llanelli (to Plaid) under the right circumstances while holding Ynys Mon (where they tend to be very loyal to sitting MPs - no incumbent defeated in 67 years),
But never a LIVE WITHIN YOUR MEANS lock.
NB Scotland, Wales & NI constituencies ar listed separately.
As a teacher, I was horrified (which the young middle class hobby socialist in my family was bewildered by).
I don't vote Tory, but exhibiting a basic grasp of the English Language and respect for our education system is a pre-requisite for anyone looking for my support as Ed. Sec or Shadow Ed.Sec.
If Leanne Wood stands, I would expect both Rhondda and Llanelli to tilt to Plaid. If Leanne doesn’t stand, then the candidate last time (Shelley Rees-Owen) nonetheless got a 9 per cent swing from Labour. Labour could still be in some trouble.
I do hope Helen Mary Jones can be persuaded to fight Llanelli.
I am more optimistic about Ceredigion, where Mark Williams has been embroiled in his own election expenses travails. I think it could fall.
I suppose Ynys Mon might fall to the Tories, if the folk there have forgotten how the last Tory MP for Ynys Mon was hauled off to prison. Whatever, Albert Owen has done remarkably well in holding it for 4 elections with wafer-thin majorities. But his race has been run, and I’d still make Plaid favourites for that seat.
One of the best performances in the Welsh Assembly election was in Blaenau Gwent, where Nigel Copner reduced the Labour majority to 650. So, I’d agree Blaenau Gwent is an opportunity.
Also, Ann Clwyd is (I gather) getting very frail, and so I’d be surprised if she ran in Cynon Valley. No doubt, Labour will impose some completely unsuitable candidate from London with the flimsiest connection to the constituency ....
I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
It has been around a very long time for a reason.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics