If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I thought the Tory party becoming the Miliband Labour Party was the whole point?
Hence the reason I'm not sure about donating money for the election effort now.
Angela Rayner was called out on Twitter for her inability to spell and differentiate between 'there, their and they're' and retorted with some 'university of life, me' rubbish.
As a teacher, I was horrified (which the young middle class hobby socialist in my family was bewildered by).
I don't vote Tory, but exhibiting a basic grasp of the English Language and respect for our education system is a pre-requisite for anyone looking for my support as Ed. Sec or Shadow Ed.Sec.
Even I, known to my friends as the grammar Fuehrer, am not going to make that a deal breaker. After all, a dyslexic can still be highly intelligent. Although of course an inability to spell can be a sign of intellectual laziness (Michael Winner apparently is hopeless).
But the fact that she knows nothing about education and her policies, wilfully or not, would cause enormous avoidable damage to massage her ego and fulfil her vision of class warfare - that, for me, is a deal breaker. She doesn't care about children, she cares about forcing her views on people regardless of the cost much of which would fall on the poorest in society. She is as a result utterly unfit to hold public office.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
Which is why I have been saying that the default PB assumption that a defeated but sane party will somehow gift Cooper or some such the leadership this autumn is perhaps a tad optimistic.....
If Corbyn won another leadership election Labour would split. The new party could well become the official opposition. I think he'll lose, though.
Agreed. I will join the party. It is indeed ironic that a Labour party member since 1979 [ minus 4 years ] is almost hoping for a shellacking to get rid of the mafia which dominates it currently.
I am not even a social democrat. I consider myself a democratic socialist.
Wonder if the Daily Mail will be going to go to war with Theresa May tomorrow?
I think they might, probably over dumping the tax lock. Not smart politics and hopefully there will be enough internal strife to force May and Hammond into a u turn to keep it. The Tories are the party of low tax and fiscal responsibility, not tax and spend.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I thought the Tory party becoming the Miliband Labour Party was the whole point?
Hence the reason I'm not sure about donating money for the election effort now.
Cameron was happy to allow the LibDems to nudge Osborne's spending profile up to more or less exactly what Waltzin' Ed was proposing pre-2010 - making a nonsense of all Labour's howling about austerity and cuts ever since. May clearly expects to be able to do the same without the inconvenience of a coalition. Read the small print in the Tory manifesto about taxes (insofar as there is any) and tax reliefs very carefully indeed....
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
I actually fancy them quite strongly in a couple of seats, but think they will poll 6-7% overall
Wonder if the Daily Mail will be going to go to war with Theresa May tomorrow?
I think they might, probably over dumping the tax lock. Not smart politics and hopefully there will be enough internal strife to force May and Hammond into a u turn to keep it. The Tories are the party of low tax and fiscal responsibility, not tax and spend.
Whoever wins the election will be forced toward high tax and responsibility.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
Indeed, a slightly dispiriting piece!
There was another piece I saw linked to on PB a few weeks back about how the US trend towards irreligion was actually making politics more divisive (for example, how the uncivil Trumpian flavour of conservatism was particularly popular among "evangelical-identifying" voters who were actually not particularly religious but saw themselves as "Christian" as a cultural tag that distinguished them from e.g. Muslims) ... that was pretty dispiriting too, but also a cracking read.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
If May wants to win a lot of marginal seats and keep them, tben her manifesto is never going to be a right wing wet dream.
Wonder if the Daily Mail will be going to go to war with Theresa May tomorrow?
I think they might, probably over dumping the tax lock. Not smart politics and hopefully there will be enough internal strife to force May and Hammond into a u turn to keep it. The Tories are the party of low tax and fiscal responsibility, not tax and spend.
They will be unhappy about the tax lock, restricting pensioner perks and particularly keeping 0.7% of GDP on foreign aid.
May and Hammond should fasten their seatbelts... Things will get bumpy.
Plaid certainly have an opportunity -- but they have a history of missing opportunities. The seats they hold all look safe, offering them the remarkable opportunity to attack elsewhere.
If Leanne Wood stands, I would expect both Rhondda and Llanelli to tilt to Plaid. If Leanne doesn’t stand, then the candidate last time (Shelley Rees-Owen) nonetheless got a 9 per cent swing from Labour. Labour could still be in some trouble.
I do hope Helen Mary Jones can be persuaded to fight Llanelli.
I am more optimistic about Ceredigion, where Mark Williams has been embroiled in his own election expenses travails. I think it could fall.
I suppose Ynys Mon might fall to the Tories, if the folk there have forgotten how the last Tory MP for Ynys Mon was hauled off to prison. Whatever, Albert Owen has done remarkably well in holding it for 4 elections with wafer-thin majorities. But his race has been run, and I’d still make Plaid favourites for that seat.
One of the best performances in the Welsh Assembly election was in Blaenau Gwent, where Nigel Copner reduced the Labour majority to 650. So, I’d agree Blaenau Gwent is an opportunity.
Also, Ann Clwyd is (I gather) getting very frail, and so I’d be surprised if she ran in Cynon Valley. No doubt, Labour will impose some completely unsuitable candidate from London with the flimsiest connection to the constituency ...
Thank you for the info about Blaenau Gwent, I didn't know that. I'll add it to the watch list.
I have to say however I think you are optimistic about Ceredigion. Mark Williams used to be my MP and he's pretty good. Expenses row or not, I think with the major student vote and the Remain victory he should be safe enough. Admittedly it looks tight on paper but that's a seat where personalities really do matter.
Of course it may depend on the candidate. If Plaid put up a definitely local figure like my old friend Mark Strong, they may be able to swing the narrative that way.
Edit - Cynon Valley would be a hell of a steal too, Ann Clwyd or no!
I'm easygoing. Watching the Jezziah and the pseudo-Colonel both lose would be even better!
I have been mulling over PC targets by the way. On the assumption they have had a rare burst of sanity I am assuming they will particularly target four seats - Rhondda, Llanelli, Ynys Mon and (a longer shot in my view) Ceredigion. I imagine on a really good night for them Merthyr and Blaenau Gwent might come into play too, but those look very remote chances.
Is there any word or even rumour on candidates in those seats yet? I was particularly wondering if Helen Mary Jones might be persuaded to fight Llanelli. If she were that seat looks quite vulnerable to me.
Plaid certainly have an opportunity -- but they have a history of missing opportunities. The seats they hold all look safe, offering them the remarkable opportunity to attack elsewhere.
If Leanne Wood stands, I would expect both Rhondda and Llanelli to tilt to Plaid. If Leanne doesn’t stand, then the candidate last time (Shelley Rees-Owen) nonetheless got a 9 per cent swing from Labour. Labour could still be in some trouble.
I do hope Helen Mary Jones can be persuaded to fight Llanelli.
I am more optimistic about Ceredigion, where Mark Williams has been embroiled in his own election expenses travails. I think it could fall.
I suppose Ynys Mon might fall to the Tories, if the folk there have forgotten how the last Tory MP for Ynys Mon was hauled off to prison. Whatever, Albert Owen has done remarkably well in holding it for 4 elections with wafer-thin majorities. But his race has been run, and I’d still make Plaid favourites for that seat.
One of the best performances in the Welsh Assembly election was in Blaenau Gwent, where Nigel Copner reduced the Labour majority to 650. So, I’d agree Blaenau Gwent is an opportunity.
Also, Ann Clwyd is (I gather) getting very frail, and so I’d be surprised if she ran in Cynon Valley. No doubt, Labour will impose some completely unsuitable candidate from London with the flimsiest connection to the constituency ....
Plaid flatter to deceive and always perform much better at Assembly elections in comparison with elections to Westminster. I was always an opponent of Welsh Devolution and derive a certain wry satisfaction from the trap it it has proved to be for Labour.By being in power in Cardiff for so long it is hardly surprising that much of the blame for problems in Health & Education is directed there - rather than at the Government at Westminster. A good shellacking might begin to persuade the party in Wales to turn its back on the Assembly.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
I actually fancy them quite strongly in a couple of seats, but think they will poll 6-7% overall
under 10% at 1/3 w Coral is a nice bet IMO
Hartlepool and? They did come pretty close in Thurrock and a few others, but surely the Tories will tear strips out of them in most seats?
4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
Depends on who PC put up as the candidate. If it's Leanne Wood those odds look about right. However, I doubt if she'll actually stand when the crunch comes.
PP's odds have now weakened to 4/6. Irrespective of the opposition, were Labour to lose Rhondda, that really would represent a disaster on a truly massive scale. FWIW Baxter has them almost 17% ahead of Plaid on 43.7% vs 27.0% I'm backing Labour to hold but DYOR.
Have PP got individual constituency markets ?
If so could you give a link as I can't find them.
On PP's website go to A-Z Betting > Politics > English Constituencies A - D, etc. NB Scotland, Wales & NI constituencies ar listed separately.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Isn't he the one who told us the 2016 local elections weren't midterm?
Angela Rayner was called out on Twitter for her inability to spell and differentiate between 'there, their and they're' and retorted with some 'university of life, me' rubbish.
As a teacher, I was horrified (which the young middle class hobby socialist in my family was bewildered by).
I don't vote Tory, but exhibiting a basic grasp of the English Language and respect for our education system is a pre-requisite for anyone looking for my support as Ed. Sec or Shadow Ed.Sec.
Even I, known to my friends as the grammar Fuehrer, am not going to make that a deal breaker. After all, a dyslexic can still be highly intelligent. Although of course an inability to spell can be a sign of intellectual laziness (Michael Winner apparently is hopeless).
But the fact that she knows nothing about education and her policies, wilfully or not, would cause enormous avoidable damage to massage her ego and fulfil her vision of class warfare - that, for me, is a deal breaker. She doesn't care about children, she cares about forcing her views on people regardless of the cost much of which would fall on the poorest in society. She is as a result utterly unfit to hold public office.
The correct response from her would be humility and demonstration of a commitment to learning as an adult, setting an example to others. It was the breathtaking arrogance and dismissiveness of the need to learn anything that was horrifying to me.
Policy wise, its the same old cluelessness as the rest of the stuff coming from Camp Corbyn. Announcing FSM for all KS2 is one thing, but what is the impact on Pupil Premium funding? Do they even understand how schools are funded and performance measures work?
The lack of detail is amateurish, their operation on both sides of the border gives the impression that the interns are running the show. The Twitter feed of the SLab Comms Head is a horror show. Make you nostalgic for Ali Cam.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
I thought it an interesting and well argued article - it reflects my long held view that the French elite is anti-American because they see themselves and their country in the reflection.
I lived in the 18th at about the same time that you were exploring the world outside the centre and it really is two countries. No real hint of non-white in any material way inside the peripheriqie.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Justin has also been predicting 35 for Labour - but in fairness that was predicated on a 2020 election and Labour firing Corbyn first (also he says he isn't a Labour supporter).
I think one of the most shattering things for a lot of Labour people, both in canvassing and in the results, will be finding out just how much people hate them. And because they believe themselves to be right in every particular and on the side of natural justice, a lot of them really will find it hard to deal with. They will almost certainly deal with it by finding excuses of how it can't have been them.
Which does of course make it less likely they will blame following a man who makes Petain look like a model of democracy and sense for their defeat. More likely to blame the MSM, the banks, big business, the Jews...
Their nervous breakdown over it could be very nasty.
Which is why I have been saying that the default PB assumption that a defeated but sane party will somehow gift Cooper or some such the leadership this autumn is perhaps a tad optimistic.....
If Corbyn won another leadership election Labour would split. The new party could well become the official opposition. I think he'll lose, though.
I agree. Still find it odd that Corbyn seems to delight in leading his party to a humiliating defeat. A peculiar form of masochism - or related sexual deviancy perhaps!
Cushioned by the sort of majority almost all PB'ers are predicting, what reason is there for thinking that May's first budget this autumn, with five more years in the bag, will be anything other than seriously painful as far as both taxes (and tax reliefs) and spending are concerned?
Angela Rayner was called out on Twitter for her inability to spell and differentiate between 'there, their and they're' and retorted with some 'university of life, me' rubbish.
As a teacher, I was horrified (which the young middle class hobby socialist in my family was bewildered by).
I don't vote Tory, but exhibiting a basic grasp of the English Language and respect for our education system is a pre-requisite for anyone looking for my support as Ed. Sec or Shadow Ed.Sec.
Even I, known to my friends as the grammar Fuehrer, am not going to make that a deal breaker. After all, a dyslexic can still be highly intelligent. Although of course an inability to spell can be a sign of intellectual laziness (Michael Winner apparently is hopeless).
But the fact that she knows nothing about education and her policies, wilfully or not, would cause enormous avoidable damage to massage her ego and fulfil her vision of class warfare - that, for me, is a deal breaker. She doesn't care about children, she cares about forcing her views on people regardless of the cost much of which would fall on the poorest in society. She is as a result utterly unfit to hold public office.
The correct response from her would be humility and demonstration of a commitment to learning as an adult, setting an example to others. It was the breathtaking arrogance and dismissiveness of the need to learn anything that was horrifying to me.
Policy wise, its the same old cluelessness as the rest of the stuff coming from Camp Corbyn. Announcing FSM for all KS2 is one thing, but what is the impact on Pupil Premium funding? Do they even understand how schools are funded and performance measures work?
The lack of detail is amateurish, their operation on both sides of the border gives the impression that the interns are running the show. The Twitter feed of the SLab Comms Head is a horror show. Make you nostalgic for Ali Cam.
Ah, now I understand. Yes, my attitude under those circumstances would have been the same except I would probably have made some highly pointed remarks about how it was small wonder she felt the need to take drastic measures to avoid sitting exams!
The answer to the question in your second paragraph is 'no' - but I think you already knew that!
For your last paragraph - I think you're very harsh. What makes you think interns would do this badly?
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Looks interesting. My favourite writer Theodore Dalrymple often contributes to this journal.
I'm part way through it and its certainly worth reading:
' Perhaps the current situation is an example of the economic law named after the eighteenth-century French economist Jean-Baptiste Say: a huge supply of menial labor from the developing world has created its own demand.
This is not Guilluy’s subject, though. He aims only to show that, even if French people were willing to do the work that gets offered in these prosperous urban centers, there’d be no way for them to do it, because there is no longer any place for them to live. As a new bourgeoisie has taken over the private housing stock, poor foreigners have taken over the public—which thus serves the metropolitan rich as a kind of taxpayer-subsidized servants’ quarters. '
1) Using children in a PPB is usually a bad idea - its cringeworthy in so many ways.
2) "Under the next labour government no child will be in a class of over 30" is a really stupid thing to promise. I know smaller classes are generally a better idea, but even the Infant Class Size limit is far too rigid for the situation, and I doubt a Labour government could resolve the issues so fast to 'promise' that no child would be in a class of over 30.
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
The Conservative Party has a fantastic history of absorbing political threats to its position into its movement.
It has been around a very long time for a reason.
Two years ago the Conservative Party absorbed the Lib Dems and now they're expected to absorb UKIP into the party while potentially keeping the bulk of the Lib Dems seats. Who could have imagined that a few years ago?
As an aside, the next two months surely marks the end of UKIP. They're going to end up without MPs, without councillors, (longer term without MEPs), and without a purpose. Professor the Lord Nuttall is going to struggle to turn this ship around.
And you think even against this backdrop the Conservatives will lose votes overall? Turnout would need to be massively down for that to happen. Add in direct Labour -> Tory movement and it seems very unlikely indeed.
In Hampstead, yes, because the turnout will be down.
My forecast was for Hampstead!
Too late to backtrack now Robert.
Hey everyone, Robert Smithson thinks Corbyn will get 32%!!!!!
Lots of Labour supporters have been predicting scores in the 30s. The infamous Mr Wisemann was convinced it would be 35 Tory 34 Labour because Corbyn is such a fine, principled man. But then he also believed Stalin was a great leader who much improved the lives of the people of the USSR.
Isn't he the one who told us the 2016 local elections weren't midterm?
He's the one who thought 40 million deaths were a necessary price for the establishment of Socialism, and simply refused to believe that economic growth was faster under the Tsars than under Stalin, to the point of wilfully refusing to look at the confirmatory information I referred him to.
He also said when suffering from mouth ulcers that they were so bad he wouldn't even wish them on Tories.
I believe he also predicted a landslide for Ed Miliband.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
I thought it an interesting and well argued article - it reflects my long held view that the French elite is anti-American because they see themselves and their country in the reflection.
I lived in the 18th at about the same time that you were exploring the world outside the centre and it really is two countries. No real hint of non-white in any material way inside the peripheriqie.
Fifteen years ago I cycled from London to Paris. On the way into the centre we got lost in a Banileu and it was scary. It was a million miles from Peckham or the dodgy parts of London. People with no transport, no hope, no jobs. Even then you could see they were fertile breeding grounds for radical Islam.
Add to this the challenges of globalisation. For these people without skills, and with a strong sense of grievence, the end of manual labour in France is an absolute disaster.
Of course, it is not clear what Melanchon or Le Pen can do to turn it around. Hand outs won't help. And hitting a recalcitrant child may shut them up temporarily, but it does nothing to improve their lot or integrate them more with French society.
A question with a Welsh theme - what's the state of play in Montgomeryshire these days? Is it now a safe Conservative seat with standard UNS characteristics, or are there still some local idiosyncrasies?
Thank you for the info about Blaenau Gwent, I didn't know that. I'll add it to the watch list.
I have to say however I think you are optimistic about Ceredigion. Mark Williams used to be my MP and he's pretty good. Expenses row or not, I think with the major student vote and the Remain victory he should be safe enough. Admittedly it looks tight on paper but that's a seat where personalities really do matter.
Of course it may depend on the candidate. If Plaid put up a definitely local figure like my old friend Mark Strong, they may be able to swing the narrative that way.
Edit - Cynon Valley would be a hell of a steal too, Ann Clwyd or no!
Personalities certainly matter in Ceredigion.
Last time there was a lot of mud-slinging (predictably enough, most of the mud was slung by the LDs).
I am not sure it enhanced the reputation of Mark Williams, so I shan’t be sorry if he loses.
Though, I’d prefer to see the end of Chris Bryant (or better still Stephen Kinnock, but that unfortunately looks very unlikely. We’re probably stuck with him for the next 20 years).
As for Cynon Valley, Labour are no doubt preparing to parachute Mr Wisemann, or a similar unrepentant Stalinist, into the constituency.
1) Using children in a PPB is usually a bad idea - its cringeworthy in so many ways.
2) "Under the next labour government no child will be in a class of over 30" is a really stupid thing to promise. I know smaller classes are generally a better idea, but even the Infant Class Size limit is far too rigid for the situation, and I doubt a Labour government could resolve the issues so fast to 'promise' that no child would be in a class of over 30.
In an ideal world no child would be in a clas of over 20. It makes a big difference.
However, his policies if enacted by wrecking the private sector and imposing vast additional unfunded costs on the state sector would more or less guarantee no child would be in a class of under 40.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
I thought it an interesting and well argued article - it reflects my long held view that the French elite is anti-American because they see themselves and their country in the reflection.
Yes, that's an interesting PoV and not one I'd thought of before - but the article does make a point of it.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
A very interesting article, and a lot of which I agree with. Corbyn does actually have a point about the system being "rigged", the trouble is his prescription is not likely to fix things but exacerbate them. May gets it to, but I doubt she can get the Tories to take serious action, too many sacred cows would have to perish.
My expectation is that things will keep getting worse.
Quite the most scary thing I have seen in a long time. Somebody in Lab HQ thinks the idea of a teacher indoctrinating school children with one sided (and incorrect) party political ideology horrifies me.
However much I detest the alteration streak I see in May, and get frustrated at the bumbling of some of her ministers, she will get my support in this GE.
A question with a Welsh theme - what's the state of play in Montgomeryshire these days? Is it now a safe Conservative seat with standard UNS characteristics, or are there still some local idiosyncrasies?
I think Glyn Davies now has that seat as his personal possession for as long as he likes.
When he retires, the LDs might have an opportunity to regain it. Although by then, boundary changes will finally have transformed it out of existence.
There is certainly the possibility that a redrawn mid-Wales seat may be favourable for the LDs.
Let’s hope you find someone more suitable than Lembit the Clown in due course.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
Last time there was a lot of mud-slinging (predictably enough, most of the mud was slung by the LDs).
I am not sure it enhanced the reputation of Mark Williams, so I shan’t be sorry if he loses.
Though, I’d prefer to see the end of Chris Bryant (or better still Stephen Kinnock, but that unfortunately looks very unlikely. We’re probably stuck with him for the next 20 years).
As for Cynon Valley, Labour are no doubt preparing to parachute Mr Wisemann, or a similar unrepentant Stalinist, into the constituency.
Thing is, although like many Liberal Democrats Williams does the nasty personal stuff far too well, he also is a hard working MP on a personal level and good at the door to door/face to face stuff. So I think he will have a big enough reservoir of support to hang on. (When he was first elected he helpfully had that slimy crook Alun Davies as the Labour candidate - so he didn't need to go negative or personal as people were literally pointing and laughing at the Labour Party for doing it and naturally, as it was Davies, cocking it up on a grand scale).
Now if it were Wisemann in Cynon Valley and he lost - that would be funny!
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
I thought it an interesting and well argued article - it reflects my long held view that the French elite is anti-American because they see themselves and their country in the reflection.
I lived in the 18th at about the same time that you were exploring the world outside the centre and it really is two countries. No real hint of non-white in any material way inside the peripheriqie.
Fifteen years ago I cycled from London to Paris. On the way into the centre we got lost in a Banileu and it was scary. It was a million miles from Peckham or the dodgy parts of London. People with no transport, no hope, no jobs. Even then you could see they were fertile breeding grounds for radical Islam.
Add to this the challenges of globalisation. For these people without skills, and with a strong sense of grievence, the end of manual labour in France is an absolute disaster.
Of course, it is not clear what Melanchon or Le Pen can do to turn it around. Hand outs won't help. And hitting a recalcitrant child may shut them up temporarily, but it does nothing to improve their lot or integrate them more with French society.
I went to a place called Clichy-Sous-Bois a few times. I saw a youth walking down the street casually holding a big ol' chain in one hand. Didn't make much eye contact.
1) Using children in a PPB is usually a bad idea - its cringeworthy in so many ways.
2) "Under the next labour government no child will be in a class of over 30" is a really stupid thing to promise. I know smaller classes are generally a better idea, but even the Infant Class Size limit is far too rigid for the situation, and I doubt a Labour government could resolve the issues so fast to 'promise' that no child would be in a class of over 30.
In an ideal world no child would be in a clas of over 20. It makes a big difference.
However, his policies if enacted by wrecking the private sector and imposing vast additional unfunded costs on the state sector would more or less guarantee no child would be in a class of under 40.
Didn't Blair pledge a specific class size in 1997? If memory serves he got close enough to claim success on it too.
I haven't understood why defecting MPs are a valuable thing at this point in a parliament. All it means is that they won't be standing for their original party at the GE, isn't it?
A question with a Welsh theme - what's the state of play in Montgomeryshire these days? Is it now a safe Conservative seat with standard UNS characteristics, or are there still some local idiosyncrasies?
I think Glyn Davies now has that seat as his personal possession for as long as he likes.
When he retires, the LDs might have an opportunity to regain it. Although by then, boundary changes will finally have transformed it out of existence.
There is certainly the possibility that a redrawn mid-Wales seat may be favourable for the LDs.
Let’s hope you find someone more suitable than Lembit the Clown in due course.
Quite the most scary thing I have seen in a long time. Somebody in Lab HQ thinks the idea of a teacher indoctrinating school children with one sided (and incorrect) party political ideology horrifies me.
However much I detest the alteration streak I see in May, and get frustrated at the bumbling of some of her ministers, she will get my support in this GE.
Labour abandoned the slogan 'The Tories are the real extremists' amid fears it would highlight Jeremy Corbyn's links to groups like Hamas and the IRA, sources have told The Telegraph.
Quite the most scary thing I have seen in a long time. Somebody in Lab HQ thinks the idea of a teacher indoctrinating school children with one sided (and incorrect) party political ideology horrifies me.
However much I detest the alteration streak I see in May, and get frustrated at the bumbling of some of her ministers, she will get my support in this GE.
Political indoctrination in schools is illegal
And so it should be, I just don't think that ban will last if we ever have a Coybne let government.
This is an absolutely bloody fantastic long read, agree with it or no. Read it. It's about globalisation, social/economic/cultural trends, and the disintegration in French political system that has made the rise of the FN possible - even inevitable. It applies just as well to Brexit or Trump.
I particularly love the phrase la gauche hashtag. That's genius.
Again, read it. Read it and disagree if you like, but it's worth the reading.
Very interesting. I spent some time in the banlieues about a decade ago, so the territory is familiar. I am glad we don't have ghettoization to the extent of France, but it does point to a possible future. I don't know if anyone really has an answer to globalization yet.
I thought it an interesting and well argued article - it reflects my long held view that the French elite is anti-American because they see themselves and their country in the reflection.
I lived in the 18th at about the same time that you were exploring the world outside the centre and it really is two countries. No real hint of non-white in any material way inside the peripheriqie.
Fifteen years ago I cycled from London to Paris. On the way into the centre we got lost in a Banileu and it was scary. It was a million miles from Peckham or the dodgy parts of London. People with no transport, no hope, no jobs. Even then you could see they were fertile breeding grounds for radical Islam.
Add to this the challenges of globalisation. For these people without skills, and with a strong sense of grievence, the end of manual labour in France is an absolute disaster.
Of course, it is not clear what Melanchon or Le Pen can do to turn it around. Hand outs won't help. And hitting a recalcitrant child may shut them up temporarily, but it does nothing to improve their lot or integrate them more with French society.
I went to a place called Clichy-Sous-Bois a few times. I saw a youth walking down the street casually holding a big ol' chain in one hand. Didn't make much eye contact.
The Wikipedia article on Clichy-sous-Bois points out that "Clichy-sous-Bois is not served by any motorway or major road and no railway and therefore remains one of the most isolated of the inner suburbs of Paris." Sounds like nothing more than a holding cell for its "population ... of African heritage" - yet still better than Burkina Faso or wherever, which is an interesting tension the article pointed out.
You do get to hear gunshots in London (perhaps not chez RCS?) but never seen someone casually walking down the street with a chain like that.
Labour abandoned the slogan 'The Tories are the real extremists' amid fears it would highlight Jeremy Corbyn's links to groups like Hamas and the IRA, sources have told The Telegraph.
1) Using children in a PPB is usually a bad idea - its cringeworthy in so many ways.
2) "Under the next labour government no child will be in a class of over 30" is a really stupid thing to promise. I know smaller classes are generally a better idea, but even the Infant Class Size limit is far too rigid for the situation, and I doubt a Labour government could resolve the issues so fast to 'promise' that no child would be in a class of over 30.
There's also the small matter of the shambles that is teacher recruitment and the general reluctance of graduates to apply for ITT. I can't even promise parents that we can run certain subjects at GCSE/A Level next year at the moment, never mind teacher to pupil ratios.
Labour abandoned the slogan 'The Tories are the real extremists' amid fears it would highlight Jeremy Corbyn's links to groups like Hamas and the IRA, sources have told The Telegraph.
Can't be true, surely?
I said things can get worse for Labour due to their campaign, I didn't expect to see such clear cut evidence so soon. That would have been a near fatal mistake, but they need to keep dodging such bullets for the next seven weeks.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Are Labour really appealing for candidates on Twitter?
Makes sense - on Twitter, Labour not only are on course to win this election, they won the last one too, so it should be easy to find suitable candidates.
A question with a Welsh theme - what's the state of play in Montgomeryshire these days? Is it now a safe Conservative seat with standard UNS characteristics, or are there still some local idiosyncrasies?
I think Glyn Davies now has that seat as his personal possession for as long as he likes.
When he retires, the LDs might have an opportunity to regain it. Although by then, boundary changes will finally have transformed it out of existence.
There is certainly the possibility that a redrawn mid-Wales seat may be favourable for the LDs.
Let’s hope you find someone more suitable than Lembit the Clown in due course.
What do you mean, "You"??
Aren’t you an LD?
The LDs took Montgomeryshire for granted, first imposing an ultra-authoritian misfit who is no longer even in the LD party, and then a practical joker who was going through a midlife crisis.
Neither appeared to have the remotest connection with the constituency, or Wales (or even Liberalism in the case of Alex Carlile).
I am not surprised the LDs lost Montgomeryshire. If they want it back, they are gonna have to improve the candidate selection.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Next up for Jeremy - abolish University fees at a cost of 10 billion
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Next up for Jeremy - abolish University fees at a cost of 10 billion
That's surely a given he is going to announce that.
Under McMao's plans they are already going to borrow some mental amount of money, so what's another 10 billion. And it will stuff the Lib Dems and Tories in one move. 650 Labour seats here we come.
I know I'm banging on about this but Ladbrokes is letting you cover 0-49 LD seat @ 1.10
Can someone formulate the scenario over the next 7 weeks were they get 50+ seats because my imagination isn't strong enough.
Well yes, I can see it happening, Just there are 80 ish Lab seats that voted remain, in may cases strongly 60%+ remain, so if the Labour party continued to collapse and tried to move clumsily to adopt some extreme leave rhetoric, they could pick up 30-40, + 5 Con +5 SNP + hold all 9 they have, and you get to mid 50s.
Not saying its likely but a 10% chance, yes probably.
Could also be massive anti conservative tactical voting turning 30 con seats lib dem
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Next up for Jeremy - abolish University fees at a cost of 10 billion
That's surely a given he is going to announce that.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Next up for Jeremy - abolish University fees at a cost of 10 billion
That's surely a given he is going to announce that.
Followed by Nationalisation of Railways
Just the railways? As a true socialist, surely will do BT, leccy and water as well.
A question with a Welsh theme - what's the state of play in Montgomeryshire these days? Is it now a safe Conservative seat with standard UNS characteristics, or are there still some local idiosyncrasies?
I think Glyn Davies now has that seat as his personal possession for as long as he likes.
When he retires, the LDs might have an opportunity to regain it. Although by then, boundary changes will finally have transformed it out of existence.
There is certainly the possibility that a redrawn mid-Wales seat may be favourable for the LDs.
Let’s hope you find someone more suitable than Lembit the Clown in due course.
What do you mean, "You"??
Aren’t you an LD?
The LDs took Montgomeryshire for granted, first imposing an ultra-authoritian misfit who is no longer even in the LD party, and then a practical joker who was going through a midlife crisis.
Neither appeared to have the remotest connection with the constituency, or Wales (or even Liberalism in the case of Alex Carlile).
I am not surprised the LDs lost Montgomeryshire. If they want it back, they are gonna have to improve the candidate selection.
Gave up voting 10 years ago, except for the Referendums, and that was a waste of time as well. I am only here for the invective and the money making opportunities.
If the government get rid of the tax lock then I'll probably reconsider the donation I've been pondering. Not impressed by the government so far.
The tax lock is far too restrictive, it needs to be modified. It boxes the government in and they may need additional wiggle room.
It should be restrictive. I want the government to work within a straght jacket and have a very tight spending envelope. If they start to increase taxes to pay for day to day spending then when does the Tory party stop being the Tory party and start being the Labour party?
I think an overall tax burden lock is fine but not allowing yourself to shift the balance of tax is crackers. It was insane at the last election and would be even more insane to not take the opportunity to liberate the government from it.
So what do we, as a party, stand for if we start raising taxes to fund government spending? No thanks. Bring back the posh boys, all is forgiven.
George Osborne raised taxes a plenty. VAT for instance. I've never been the type of Tory that doesn't accept that occasionally raising tax is essential. I think reconfirming the tax lock as it stands would be crackers especially if the economy stutters.
Then take the axe to spending. The economy is out of intensive care, we don't need to raise taxes to balance the books, the chancellor just needs the balls to cut in working benefits and housing benefit paid to working people.
Next up for Jeremy - abolish University fees at a cost of 10 billion
That's surely a given he is going to announce that.
Followed by Nationalisation of Railways
Just the railways? As a true socialist, surely will do BT, leccy and water as well.
Successive ToryGovernments felt it was very much in the national interest to have the Railways, Gas , Electricity and Water in the Public Secor. Were they all deluded Marxists too?
Labour abandoned the slogan 'The Tories are the real extremists' amid fears it would highlight Jeremy Corbyn's links to groups like Hamas and the IRA, sources have told The Telegraph.
Can't be true, surely?
Corbyn's greatest casualty: we will never see The Thick Of It again.....
Comments
And about 150 unnamed others. At least.
But the fact that she knows nothing about education and her policies, wilfully or not, would cause enormous avoidable damage to massage her ego and fulfil her vision of class warfare - that, for me, is a deal breaker. She doesn't care about children, she cares about forcing her views on people regardless of the cost much of which would fall on the poorest in society. She is as a result utterly unfit to hold public office.
I am not even a social democrat. I consider myself a democratic socialist.
under 10% at 1/3 w Coral is a nice bet IMO
There was another piece I saw linked to on PB a few weeks back about how the US trend towards irreligion was actually making politics more divisive (for example, how the uncivil Trumpian flavour of conservatism was particularly popular among "evangelical-identifying" voters who were actually not particularly religious but saw themselves as "Christian" as a cultural tag that distinguished them from e.g. Muslims) ... that was pretty dispiriting too, but also a cracking read.
May and Hammond should fasten their seatbelts... Things will get bumpy.
Re-run anybody?
I have to say however I think you are optimistic about Ceredigion. Mark Williams used to be my MP and he's pretty good. Expenses row or not, I think with the major student vote and the Remain victory he should be safe enough. Admittedly it looks tight on paper but that's a seat where personalities really do matter.
Of course it may depend on the candidate. If Plaid put up a definitely local figure like my old friend Mark Strong, they may be able to swing the narrative that way.
Edit - Cynon Valley would be a hell of a steal too, Ann Clwyd or no!
Policy wise, its the same old cluelessness as the rest of the stuff coming from Camp Corbyn. Announcing FSM for all KS2 is one thing, but what is the impact on Pupil Premium funding? Do they even understand how schools are funded and performance measures work?
The lack of detail is amateurish, their operation on both sides of the border gives the impression that the interns are running the show. The Twitter feed of the SLab Comms Head is a horror show. Make you nostalgic for Ali Cam.
How, when they weren't even the official Leave campaign?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLcwhgrxTWs
I lived in the 18th at about the same time that you were exploring the world outside the centre and it really is two countries. No real hint of non-white in any material way inside the peripheriqie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBt5wfJci18
The answer to the question in your second paragraph is 'no' - but I think you already knew that!
For your last paragraph - I think you're very harsh. What makes you think interns would do this badly?
' Perhaps the current situation is an example of the economic law named after the eighteenth-century French economist Jean-Baptiste Say: a huge supply of menial labor from the developing world has created its own demand.
This is not Guilluy’s subject, though. He aims only to show that, even if French people were willing to do the work that gets offered in these prosperous urban centers, there’d be no way for them to do it, because there is no longer any place for them to live. As a new bourgeoisie has taken over the private housing stock, poor foreigners have taken over the public—which thus serves the metropolitan rich as a kind of taxpayer-subsidized servants’ quarters. '
2) "Under the next labour government no child will be in a class of over 30" is a really stupid thing to promise. I know smaller classes are generally a better idea, but even the Infant Class Size limit is far too rigid for the situation, and I doubt a Labour government could resolve the issues so fast to 'promise' that no child would be in a class of over 30.
That's so cringe worthy.
He also said when suffering from mouth ulcers that they were so bad he wouldn't even wish them on Tories.
I believe he also predicted a landslide for Ed Miliband.
All in all, a bit of an idiot.
Add to this the challenges of globalisation. For these people without skills, and with a strong sense of grievence, the end of manual labour in France is an absolute disaster.
Of course, it is not clear what Melanchon or Le Pen can do to turn it around. Hand outs won't help. And hitting a recalcitrant child may shut them up temporarily, but it does nothing to improve their lot or integrate them more with French society.
Last time there was a lot of mud-slinging (predictably enough, most of the mud was slung by the LDs).
I am not sure it enhanced the reputation of Mark Williams, so I shan’t be sorry if he loses.
Though, I’d prefer to see the end of Chris Bryant (or better still Stephen Kinnock, but that unfortunately looks very unlikely. We’re probably stuck with him for the next 20 years).
As for Cynon Valley, Labour are no doubt preparing to parachute Mr Wisemann, or a similar unrepentant Stalinist, into the constituency.
However, his policies if enacted by wrecking the private sector and imposing vast additional unfunded costs on the state sector would more or less guarantee no child would be in a class of under 40.
My expectation is that things will keep getting worse.
However much I detest the alteration streak I see in May, and get frustrated at the bumbling of some of her ministers, she will get my support in this GE.
When he retires, the LDs might have an opportunity to regain it. Although by then, boundary changes will finally have transformed it out of existence.
There is certainly the possibility that a redrawn mid-Wales seat may be favourable for the LDs.
Let’s hope you find someone more suitable than Lembit the Clown in due course.
Good evening, everyone.
Thing is, although like many Liberal Democrats Williams does the nasty personal stuff far too well, he also is a hard working MP on a personal level and good at the door to door/face to face stuff. So I think he will have a big enough reservoir of support to hang on. (When he was first elected he helpfully had that slimy crook Alun Davies as the Labour candidate - so he didn't need to go negative or personal as people were literally pointing and laughing at the Labour Party for doing it and naturally, as it was Davies, cocking it up on a grand scale).
Now if it were Wisemann in Cynon Valley and he lost - that would be funny!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39665212
At this rate they might soon be able to pay back the money they took from Michael Brown...
Personally I think Richmond Park has been mis-priced again. Tories should be comfortable, though not heavy, favourites. 5/4 is a gift.
(quite an awful PPB).
Can someone formulate the scenario over the next 7 weeks were they get 50+ seats because my imagination isn't strong enough.
Labour abandoned the slogan 'The Tories are the real extremists' amid fears it would highlight Jeremy Corbyn's links to groups like Hamas and the IRA, sources have told The Telegraph.
Can't be true, surely?
You do get to hear gunshots in London (perhaps not chez RCS?) but never seen someone casually walking down the street with a chain like that.
Not likely mind, but 1.10 implies 91% chance.
The LDs took Montgomeryshire for granted, first imposing an ultra-authoritian misfit who is no longer even in the LD party, and then a practical joker who was going through a midlife crisis.
Neither appeared to have the remotest connection with the constituency, or Wales (or even Liberalism in the case of Alex Carlile).
I am not surprised the LDs lost Montgomeryshire. If they want it back, they are gonna have to improve the candidate selection.
Under McMao's plans they are already going to borrow some mental amount of money, so what's another 10 billion. And it will stuff the Lib Dems and Tories in one move. 650 Labour seats here we come.
Not saying its likely but a 10% chance, yes probably.
Could also be massive anti conservative tactical voting turning 30 con seats lib dem
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/19/no-one-knows-anything-what-to-do-ifwhen-mrs-may-wins-todays-vote/