Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation in LeaveE

12357

Comments

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited April 2017
    MikeL said:

    May surely cannot go into a GE with Labour promising to keep the pensions triple lock and not raise taxes (up to a certain level of income) and yet the Conservatives not making the same commitments.

    If she does, she'll be attacked relentlessly.

    Anything could happen.

    She could, and she should - with the leads she has in the polls, particularly the personal comparisons on leadership and economic competence, she should still walk away with a sizable increase in majority even if Labour promises to retain those policies.

    Would that not be better for the country rather than committing to poor policies to get a larger majority, then be forced into embarrassing u-turns later? (If one thinks they are good policies, of course that is a different matter)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    chestnut said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    Bloody hell, Donald Trump is honouring another of one Barack Obama's promises

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855518447668776960

    Preposterous bollocks (just like the Daily Express stories that claim the opposite). Trump is a narcissist with the attention span of his handbag designing daughter. The USA will pursue free trade agreements with whoever it can, and whoever it benefits, as and when.

    The Times is morphing, rather sadly, into the contrary, broadsheet version of the Daily Mail, in its anti-Brexit positioning.

    To get a decent objective view of Brexit one is forced to read the more boring, business pages of the FT. Incredibly.
    The Times, seems to have, moved to a more anti US/ left wing position, since the independent stopped printing. most of the reads of the pint edition seem to have moved to the Times, and the times seems keen to accommodate them.

    Maybe I'm just being cynical?
    The Times backed Remain - though in fairness, they are carrying the story about the UK being unhappy wth the inferior standards of animal welfare within the EU with a potential ban on exports for slaughter in the offing.

    It looks like EU religious exemptions for slaughter might be in the UK's firing line as well.
    My assessment of the US national interest on trade deals with the EU and UK is that they will want both, ideally as soon as possible.

    The EU is the larger economic prize, but it will be harder to negotiate, take longer and come with lots of exclusions and conditions.

    The UK will offer deeper and more flexible access to its markets, and strike that deal more quickly.

    Meanwhile, the UK and EU are planning to settle themselves within 5 years. So I imagine the US would want the new order to come into effect roundabout the same time, ideally.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    That Sun front page just makes me want to vote Conservative. Clever.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Far too many people here seem absolutely convinced that no unlikely thing can ever happen when, if the last year at has taught us nothing else, we ought to know that unlikely s**t happens all the time.

    The Tories getting 50% in the election is quite unlikely... :o
    Why do you say that?
    My 2 cents:

    1. The historical trends are unfavourable. No party has gained 50% since WW2, and the winning party %age has trended sharply downhill.

    2. The Tories got 36% just 2 years ago. Britain is an equable country and we are an equable people. I can't see the Tories putting on 14% in such a short space of time, especially when so little has changed. Don't laugh: Labour were already pretty useless last time, and Brexit although huge is still only one factor among many others.

    3. Although Labour are tanking, the Tories aren't the only game in town. There is still the LibDems, Greens and Ukip, so ex-Labour voters do have other options. Having said that, it's likely that none of those parties, especially Ukip, will put up a full slate of candidates, so that'll push the Tories a bit closer to 50.

    If I were a betting man I'd plump for 43%...
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Theresa May is calculating that large numbers of voters (and the press) have nowhere else to go, so is seeking as free a hand as possible. She is prepared to sacrifice some seats to give herself the power to do more without having made inconvenient commitments.

    Good strategy.

    Dave went for that strategy in 2010.

    Should we start bracing ourselves for Tim Farron as Deputy PM?
    Sky just reported on UKIP in Dagenham and UKIP voters are going conservative. Indeed over the last few days Sky and BBC live reports from across the Country show a huge move to Theresa May - the last time I witnessed anything like this was Tony Blair in 1997
    It won't happen if she protects aid and leaves the door open to more tax on Mr and Mrs Average and pensioners.
  • Options
    marke09 said:

    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Bloody hell, Donald Trump is honouring another of one Barack Obama's promises

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855518447668776960

    Preposterous bollocks (just like the Daily Express stories that claim the opposite). Trump is a narcissist with the attention span of his handbag designing daughter. The USA will pursue free trade agreements with whoever it can, and whoever it benefits, as and when.

    The Times is morphing, rather sadly, into the contrary, broadsheet version of the Daily Mail, in its anti-Brexit positioning.

    To get a decent objective view of Brexit one is forced to read the more boring, business pages of the FT. Incredibly.
    Isn't The Times "your" paper? You'll be going the same way as Kelvin Mackenzie if you aren't careful! ;)
    Please don't quote me (really). I love my paper and honour my employer, Mr Rupert Murdoch (PBUH). And I absolutely love saying I WRITE FOR THE TIMES. Yes. THE TIMES OF LONDON. All over the world, this opens doors and eyes. Fab.

    But I suspect a small bunch of the editorial team have been seized by Remoaner madness.

    Hopefully they will revert to sanity soon.
    Times increasing its cover price by 20p from tomorrow
    Just took out an 8 week trial for £8 so covers the campaign and option of £24 per month if I want to continue
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    There is little reason why information transfer needs to happen in a classroom at all these days. The best method, particularly for High School onwards, is to use class-time for discussion, engagement and selection of interesting problems to address, and let the kids research the information on their own (individually or in study groups) outside. Presentations of their work can then be used to assess the quality of their information sources, if that is a worry, but still with more emphasis on critiquing and improving their ability to manipulate data and present it in useful ways, rather than simply proof of data acquisition.

    Flipped classroom is well worth a google on these issues.

    "The Blob" in the UK is essentially conservative, but in 15-25 years time I can imagine that the learning experience here will be completely transformed - and the teaching profession with it.

    Another interesting factor is big online learning providers (likely to be tied in with existing educational publishers, and/or exam boards) using AI/Machine Learning perhaps supplemented with cheap, well-educated English-speaking online tutors from developing countries like India to make internet-based learning far more interactive than current offerings allow. (We are talking a world of difference beyond Khan Academy or MyMaths and the likes, certainly within the next 10 years. May suit some subjects more than others, of course.)

    I understand your daughter did very well essentially working for herself (in a carefully structured environment). I imagine she found the transition to independent learning at college much easier to boot.
    Just graduating, Deans List from GWU (one of the top schools), very early entry into medical school and invited to apply for Rhodes and Marshal scholarships. Slacker.

    But you are right, her experience in distance learning helped her immeasurably in the transition to college.

    I highly recommend a short book - A New Culture of Learning - Cultivating the Imagination for a World of Constant Change (Thomas and Brown, 2011)

    https://www.amazon.com/New-Culture-Learning-Cultivating-Imagination/dp/1456458884
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Sky just reported on UKIP in Dagenham and UKIP voters are going conservative. Indeed over the last few days Sky and BBC live reports from across the Country show a huge move to Theresa May - the last time I witnessed anything like this was Tony Blair in 1997

    Corbyn potentially seven weeks from No. 10 is a very different proposition from who you might vote for in 2020.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    That Sun front page just makes me want to vote Conservative. Clever.

    It makes me more inclined to than the 'crush the saboteurs' Mail page, but I wonder about the wider impact - how much wiggle room are these new TMay fans prepared to give her before they bolt?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    I think I might have to turn off all media and not read PB....knee knocking here at the thought of PM Corbyn.
  • Options
    Ave_it said:

    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?

    Yes, Panelbase are doing Scotland only polls, Survation GB wide polls, but rarely.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,283
    Dadge said:

    2. The Tories got 36% just 2 years ago.

    You have to put that in the context of UKIP getting 12.6%. What I find most extraordinary is that anecdotally many floating protest voters - the archetypal none-of-the-aboves - seem to be going for May.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Does anyone know if we are getting tracker polls? Or are pollsters still licking their wounds?

    To quote someone who loves AV and writes articles for a website on betting on politics.

    'Pollsters have gone off trackers, like sex, they prefer it good than quick'
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Is Panelbase another word for system3?
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    MikeL said:

    May surely cannot go into a GE with Labour promising to keep the pensions triple lock and not raise taxes (up to a certain level of income) and yet the Conservatives not making the same commitments.

    If she does, she'll be attacked relentlessly.

    Anything could happen.

    My guess is she's dipping her toe in the water to see the reaction. She didn't rule out the triple lock, sensibly. Regardless, there's nothing on this Earth that will propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. May could increase taxes by 50% and he still wouldn't make it.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    RobD said:

    Does anyone know if we are getting tracker polls? Or are pollsters still licking their wounds?

    I hope not - at least not the type that were discredited in 2015 and 2016.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    Theresa May is calculating that large numbers of voters (and the press) have nowhere else to go, so is seeking as free a hand as possible. She is prepared to sacrifice some seats to give herself the power to do more without having made inconvenient commitments.

    Good strategy.

    Dave went for that strategy in 2010.

    Should we start bracing ourselves for Tim Farron as Deputy PM?
    Sky just reported on UKIP in Dagenham and UKIP voters are going conservative. Indeed over the last few days Sky and BBC live reports from across the Country show a huge move to Theresa May - the last time I witnessed anything like this was Tony Blair in 1997
    It won't happen if she protects aid and leaves the door open to more tax on Mr and Mrs Average and pensioners.
    And that will pale into insignificance with Corbyn's 500 billion bill
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Anyway I think we have lost goodnight
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Suggests she will aim to be more Merkel than Thatcher but she wins either way
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    SeanT said:

    Bloody hell, Donald Trump is honouring another of one Barack Obama's promises

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855518447668776960

    Preposterous bollocks (just like the Daily Express stories that claim the opposite). Trump is a narcissist with the attention span of his handbag designing daughter. The USA will pursue free trade agreements with whoever it can, and whoever it benefits, as and when.

    The Times is morphing, rather sadly, into the contrary, broadsheet version of the Daily Mail, in its anti-Brexit positioning.

    To get a decent objective view of Brexit one is forced to read the more boring, business pages of the FT. Incredibly.
    Indeed to state Trump is prepared not to rule out an EU trade deal means nothing considering it took the EU 7 years to even do a deal with Canada and it has to get through all the EU institutions and Congress
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    This is the Sun throwing their weight around. The Mail will likely do the same. Regardless of the merits of the policy proposals, May should be using this opportunity to win the election entirely on her own terms, and give her freedom to govern as she wants. Changing policy now because it angers the Sun just indicates that she will be at their beck and call throughout her premiership.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,844
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Hammond is a disaster.
    I continually fail to understand this attitude - May surely signs off on anything her Chancellor proposes, if you think he is a disaster, you think she is a disaster.

    The papers will not be happy unless we pay no taxes at all while seeing no reduction in any service or investment, sooner or later a prime minister has to suck it up and either cut spending drastically, or tell their own supporters to deal with the rises already if they want to keep their own godsdamned spending, which you bet they do, since they moan like absolute babies whenever anything other than the foreign aid is proposed to be cut, and if any tax is proposed.

    I'm part convinced the 0.7% is only kept as a sort of lightning rod. That its some kind of conjuring trick, as people are so angry about it they don't notice other things to be angry about.

    Regardless, whinging about the 0.7% has become the right's version of 'NHS, NHS, NHS' to me - I can concede issues about it that may well need addressing, but I am just so sick and tired of the moaning.
    I assume the potential tax rises are due to the projected fiscal squeeze of Brexit. The basic problem is that Leave was sold on a no cost prospectus. Mrs May hasn't yet dared to spell out the real compromises people will have to make as a consequence.

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same. I'm uncynical about Mrs May's motives in this instance. I believe she is doing what she thinks is right.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    I think I might have to turn off all media and not read PB....knee knocking here at the thought of PM Corbyn.

    You're this worried with a 20% poll lead? You have no need to be. The public rejected Brown and Miliband - they sure as hell aren't going to elect an unhinged, dimwitted, 70 year old far left terrorist sympathiser. These headlines are the early firing shots of a very long campaign. The Sun are sabre rattling - they don't want to see Corbyn in Downing Street any more than we do.

    As Corporal Jones said 'don't panic!!'.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    You are no longer bullish on the CON gain Bootle market? :o
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    Ave_it said:

    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?

    And Populus? Seems a lot of the "names" are our of the game now?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Hammond is a disaster.
    I continually fail to understand this attitude - May surely signs off on anything her Chancellor proposes, if you think he is a disaster, you think she is a disaster.

    The papers will not be happy unless we pay no taxes at all while seeing no reduction in any service or investment, sooner or later a prime minister has to suck it up and either cut spending drastically, or tell their own supporters to deal with the rises already if they want to keep their own godsdamned spending, which you bet they do, since they moan like absolute babies whenever anything other than the foreign aid is proposed to be cut, and if any tax is proposed.

    I'm part convinced the 0.7% is only kept as a sort of lightning rod. That its some kind of conjuring trick, as people are so angry about it they don't notice other things to be angry about.

    Regardless, whinging about the 0.7% has become the right's version of 'NHS, NHS, NHS' to me - I can concede issues about it that may well need addressing, but I am just so sick and tired of the moaning.
    I assume the potential tax rises are due to the projected fiscal squeeze of Brexit. The basic problem is that Leave was sold on a no cost prospectus. Mrs May hasn't yet dared to spell out the real compromises people will have to make as a consequence.

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same. I'm uncynical about Mrs May's motives in this instance. I believe she is doing what she thinks is right.
    Isn't she committed to keeping the percentage of GDP the same? Which means the budget grows if GDP grows?

    Unless we have five years of no GDP growth it means the budget will grow - and if there is five year of no GDP growth we'd have far greater worries than what the aid budget is.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    What if labour start to go over 30% and the tories high 30% in future polls,should we be worried ;-)

    Pathetic start to the tories campaign and a decent start from corbyn,when does lynton crosby take charge ;-)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Hammond is a disaster.
    I continually fail to understand this attitude - May surely signs off on anything her Chancellor proposes, if you think he is a disaster, you think she is a disaster.

    The papers will not be happy unless we pay no taxes at all while seeing no reduction in any service or investment, sooner or later a prime minister has to suck it up and either cut spending drastically, or tell their own supporters to deal with the rises already if they want to keep their own godsdamned spending, which you bet they do, since they moan like absolute babies whenever anything other than the foreign aid is proposed to be cut, and if any tax is proposed.

    I'm part convinced the 0.7% is only kept as a sort of lightning rod. That its some kind of conjuring trick, as people are so angry about it they don't notice other things to be angry about.

    Regardless, whinging about the 0.7% has become the right's version of 'NHS, NHS, NHS' to me - I can concede issues about it that may well need addressing, but I am just so sick and tired of the moaning.

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same..
    I presume their reasoning will be that in order to keep it at 0.7% the sterling amount will go up.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    Thought they did from 1979 to 1983 ?
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Hammond is a disaster.
    I continually fail to understand this attitude - May surely signs off on anything her Chancellor proposes, if you think he is a disaster, you think she is a disaster.

    The papers will not be happy unless we pay no taxes at all while seeing no reduction in any service or investment, sooner or later a prime minister has to suck it up and either cut spending drastically, or tell their own supporters to deal with the rises already if they want to keep their own godsdamned spending, which you bet they do, since they moan like absolute babies whenever anything other than the foreign aid is proposed to be cut, and if any tax is proposed.

    I'm part convinced the 0.7% is only kept as a sort of lightning rod. That its some kind of conjuring trick, as people are so angry about it they don't notice other things to be angry about.

    Regardless, whinging about the 0.7% has become the right's version of 'NHS, NHS, NHS' to me - I can concede issues about it that may well need addressing, but I am just so sick and tired of the moaning.
    I assume the potential tax rises are due to the projected fiscal squeeze of Brexit. The basic problem is that Leave was sold on a no cost prospectus. Mrs May hasn't yet dared to spell out the real compromises people will have to make as a consequence.

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same. I'm uncynical about Mrs May's motives in this instance. I believe she is doing what she thinks is right.
    I listened to Theresa May today and she did confirm the foreign aid budget but a review will take place on how it is spent. She also said pensioners had had a £1250 rise (as a pensioner I can confirm that) but made no comment on the triple lock at all. As for tax it is just plain common sense.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812

    This is the Sun throwing their weight around. The Mail will likely do the same. Regardless of the merits of the policy proposals, May should be using this opportunity to win the election entirely on her own terms, and give her freedom to govern as she wants. Changing policy now because it angers the Sun just indicates that she will be at their beck and call throughout her premiership.

    Quite frankly, I'm glad they do.

    If it weren't for challenge from the Mail, Sun and the Telegraph, most Conservative Prime Ministers would tack to the Left over time.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    Ave_it said:

    Informed opinion saying no overall majority!

    Foreign aid policy a disaster!

    Looks like may and Hammond will turn against hard working successful people and increase handouts!!!

    It's certainly going to be a very "hard sell" to hike taxes on working people, cut benefits to British pensioners, watch the NHS and schools systems fall into ruins whole continuing to shell out millions in foreign aid.

    Presumably May and Hammond know what they're doing so we'll see how it shakes out....
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?

    And Populus? Seems a lot of the "names" are our of the game now?
    1) Populus are gun shy after their failure in the EURef

    2) Populus do the fieldwork for Sir Lynton's polls I believe
  • Options
    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    chestnut said:

    Theresa May is calculating that large numbers of voters (and the press) have nowhere else to go, so is seeking as free a hand as possible. She is prepared to sacrifice some seats to give herself the power to do more without having made inconvenient commitments.

    Good strategy.

    Dave went for that strategy in 2010.

    Should we start bracing ourselves for Tim Farron as Deputy PM?
    Sky just reported on UKIP in Dagenham and UKIP voters are going conservative. Indeed over the last few days Sky and BBC live reports from across the Country show a huge move to Theresa May - the last time I witnessed anything like this was Tony Blair in 1997
    It won't happen if she protects aid and leaves the door open to more tax on Mr and Mrs Average and pensioners.
    And that will pale into insignificance with Corbyn's 500 billion bill
    These people left Corbyn and Labour years ago. Labour are not a consideration.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    What if labour start to go over 30% and the tories high 30% in future polls,should we be worried ;-)

    In all seriousness I think that sort of trend will happen at some point, even if it does not get as close as that. There have been polls putting the lead at below 10, and even if an outlier there will be more outliers, and the Tories have had such a great start with 20+ leads, and Lab are statistically bound to have a good day or two across 7 weeks. If the LDs have good locals and the Tories not as good as thought, there'll be more gentle nerves, so there will be opportunity for people to think Con won't win outright, or at least not by massive amounts.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?

    And Populus? Seems a lot of the "names" are our of the game now?
    1) Populus are gun shy after their failure in the EURef

    2) Populus do the fieldwork for Sir Lynton's polls I believe
    That final EURef poll giving REMAIN a 10% lead was very odd...
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2017

    What if labour start to go over 30% and the tories high 30% in future polls,should we be worried ;-)

    Pathetic start to the tories campaign and a decent start from corbyn,when does lynton crosby take charge ;-)

    Maybe he has, a terrible Con campaign will solve the complacency problem...
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:
    "Miss, my dad says Jeremy Corbyn's a crazy old trot. What's a trot?"
    Miss miss my dad says Jeremy Corbyn's supports the IRA...who are the IRA?
    Miss , my dad says Theresa May is a lying bitch!
    Just goes to show how childish saying that is.
    Which part of the sentence do you not agree with ? Lying or bitch ? The word ugly wasn't even used !
    At least you don't go around wishing she was dead. A small redeeming feature.
    I was not aware that anyone had wished her dead.
    It's all in the PB archive, Justin.
    Well I would be interested to read that! The only person I have wished that on is Tony Blair .
    They are all here, you looking forward to her becoming blind, losing limbs etc.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/19/no-one-knows-anything-what-to-do-ifwhen-mrs-may-wins-todays-vote/
    But you said 'dead'!
    Yeah, you mentioned something about a polonium pill?
    I also suggested there might well be an antidote to that!

    Chelation is the only know way to remove ingested polonium from the body. Given the high energy of its alpha radiation, I doubt whether chelation can be effective within a timeframe that might save a patient who has been deliberately poisoned with it.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Isn't it about time for an opinion poll or two?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Jason said:

    MikeL said:

    May surely cannot go into a GE with Labour promising to keep the pensions triple lock and not raise taxes (up to a certain level of income) and yet the Conservatives not making the same commitments.

    If she does, she'll be attacked relentlessly.

    Anything could happen.

    My guess is she's dipping her toe in the water to see the reaction. She didn't rule out the triple lock, sensibly. Regardless, there's nothing on this Earth that will propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. May could increase taxes by 50% and he still wouldn't make it.
    Very true great opportunity to raise whatever she likes Stick VAT on new house building over a certain amount in certain areas as it is already on anyone wishing to build an extension.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tyke johnno I agree CON are imploding like Huddersfield promotion push! We need clear working class right wing policies on helping hard working class people or we will go sub 30%!
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Do Panelbase and Survation still do polls?

    And Populus? Seems a lot of the "names" are our of the game now?
    1) Populus are gun shy after their failure in the EURef

    2) Populus do the fieldwork for Sir Lynton's polls I believe
    That final EURef poll giving REMAIN a 10% lead was very odd...
    Their final private poll gave Remain a 20% victory, and Lord Cooper decided to taunt a few Leavers, apparently.
  • Options
    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    As UKIP are only considering fighting in a few seats where are they going to go
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    I am somewhat confused as to whether May wants to be the continuity Cameron or Cameron is shit candidate. Her biggest supporters are definitely in the latter group, but others insist she is still broadly the former.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Yorkcity said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    Thought they did from 1979 to 1983 ?
    The first time was not a Conservative government, but Conservative opposition
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No female Conservative party leader has ever lost a General Election.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    As UKIP are only considering fighting in a few seats where are they going to go
    Home.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    As UKIP are only considering fighting in a few seats where are they going to go
    Stay at home.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    Isn't it about time for an opinion poll or two?

    I'm expecting mega polling Saturday night.

    But you should remember

    1) Polls cost a lot of money, especially the phone ones, and papers don't have finite budgets

    2) Polling as a whole has been as accurate as a Imperial Storm Trooper in recent events.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yorkcity - two elections after winning one
  • Options

    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    As UKIP are only considering fighting in a few seats where are they going to go
    Home.
    To the Brexit party
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Isn't it about time for an opinion poll or two?

    I'm expecting mega polling Saturday night.

    But you should remember

    1) Polls cost a lot of money, especially the phone ones, and papers don't have finite budgets

    2) Polling as a whole has been as accurate as a Imperial Storm Trooper in recent events.
    Seems a long time since we could look forward to YouGov's daily poll.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No conservative government have had the bonus of upto 4 million UKIP votes
    You're kidding yourself if you think they are going to land in the Tories' laps if May appears to be continuity Cameron.
    I am somewhat confused as to whether May wants to be the continuity Cameron or Cameron is shit candidate. Her biggest supporters are definitely in the latter group, but others insist she is still broadly the former.
    I think she's viewed as the custodian of sensible Brexit in the true spirit of Brexit by those who support her.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ave_it said:

    Tyke johnno I agree CON are imploding like Huddersfield promotion push! We need clear working class right wing policies on helping hard working class people or we will go sub 30%!

    This is the Ave_It! we know and love.
  • Options
    Almost like some people are forgetting Cameron won a majority despite UKIP polling 4 million
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    What if labour start to go over 30% and the tories high 30% in future polls,should we be worried ;-)

    Pathetic start to the tories campaign and a decent start from corbyn,when does lynton crosby take charge ;-)

    Can not see it Tyke they are like York City fighting to stay in the national league.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218

    What if labour start to go over 30% and the tories high 30% in future polls,should we be worried ;-)

    Pathetic start to the tories campaign and a decent start from corbyn,when does lynton crosby take charge ;-)

    If people want to cut overseas aid and taxes and immigration they certainly won't go to Corbyn if they don't think May is giving enough red meat, they will go to UKIP and at least that means May has more of a mandate of her own without being dependent on the right
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,844
    edited April 2017
    PISA, who collect comparative international data on educational outcomes, do so to identify common trends amongst the best performing education systems and promote best practice. They reckon class sizes don't make a difference but teacher pay does. The implication being that you're better using your inevitably limited education budgets to fund fewer but better teachers.

    Putting it another way, if teachers want those generous salaries, the deal is they take on larger classes.

    I'm pretty sure parents are keen on smaller class sizes however.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    At least one of them looks like they are on drugs...

    https://twitter.com/alliehbnews/status/855541237125963778
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No female Conservative party leader has ever lost a General Election.
    And no female Labour party leader has ever ... oh ....
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    Almost like some people are forgetting Cameron won a majority despite UKIP polling 4 million

    Dave will be remembered fondly in years to come as a genuine democrat.

    I'm going to shut up now. I'm talking too much. Apologies one and all.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Go MTimT! I wish may were like trump!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Yorkcity said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    Thought they did from 1979 to 1983 ?
    Their vote share actually fell, slightly, but - thanks to the Alliance - they won a lot more seats.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Sun getting a bit of May bashing in early.

    I'm sure we won't have to wait too long for Corbyn to get the brickbats chucked at him.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    Thought they did from 1979 to 1983 ?
    Their vote share actually fell, slightly, but - thanks to the Alliance - they won a lot more seats.
    The Tories also increased their seat total in 1955 and 1959
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,844

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    SeanT said:

    More importantly, The Sun is not happy with TMay. That WILL worry her

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855524532182036482

    The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.

    Hammond is a disaster.
    I continually fail to understand this attitude - May surely signs off on anything her Chancellor proposes, if you think he is a disaster, you think she is a disaster.

    The papers will not be happy unless we pay no taxes at all while seeing no reduction in any service or investment, sooner or later a prime minister has to suck it up and either cut spending drastically, or tell their own supporters to deal with the rises already if they want to keep their own godsdamned spending, which you bet they do, since they moan like absolute babies whenever anything other than the foreign aid is proposed to be cut, and if any tax is proposed.

    I'm part convinced the 0.7% is only kept as a sort of lightning rod. That its some kind of conjuring trick, as people are so angry about it they don't notice other things to be angry about.

    Regardless, whinging about the 0.7% has become the right's version of 'NHS, NHS, NHS' to me - I can concede issues about it that may well need addressing, but I am just so sick and tired of the moaning.
    I assume the potential tax rises are due to the projected fiscal squeeze of Brexit. The basic problem is that Leave was sold on a no cost prospectus. Mrs May hasn't yet dared to spell out the real compromises people will have to make as a consequence.

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same. I'm uncynical about Mrs May's motives in this instance. I believe she is doing what she thinks is right.
    Isn't she committed to keeping the percentage of GDP the same? Which means the budget grows if GDP grows?

    Unless we have five years of no GDP growth it means the budget will grow - and if there is five year of no GDP growth we'd have far greater worries than what the aid budget is.
    Yeah but the same inflationary uprating applies to everything. It's meaningless to say EVERY budget item is increasing.
  • Options
    What a difference a day makes, or even a few hours.

    Reading the posts on here this evening (not least those of Ave_it who seems to have jumped ship) and you could easily convince yourself that the forthcoming GE is going to be a mightily close run thing!
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:

    PISA, who collect comparative international data on educational outcomes, do so to identify common trends amongst the best performing education systems and promote best practice. They reckon class sizes don't make a difference but teacher pay does. The implication being that you're better using your inevitably limited education budgets to fund fewer but better teachers.

    Putting it another way, if teachers want those generous salaries, the deal is they take on larger classes.

    I'm pretty sure parents are keen on smaller class sizes however.

    I believe this is also the OECD prescription. Will try to avoid repeating points I made downthread but the I can't see this trade-off ever being explored in the UK, particularly with teachers also getting the additional planning/assessment/ongoing training time they get in some of the more successful countries taking the route of high class size/high pay/highly educated practitioners. If class sizes do go up, it'll be cost-cutting (or related, recruitment/retention) reasons alone.
  • Options
    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    For God sake,the con's should be on the front foot with 20% lead but what have had is theresa running away from tv debates,Theresa running away from pension lock,Theresa running away from tax hikes and the only firm hard stance is on oversea's aid - which is a vote loser in my opinion.

    What we have got is corbyn on the front foot,pull your f-king finger out Theresa.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    AndyJS said:

    Isn't it about time for an opinion poll or two?

    I'm expecting mega polling Saturday night.

    But you should remember

    1) Polls cost a lot of money, especially the phone ones, and papers don't have finite budgets

    2) Polling as a whole has been as accurate as a Imperial Storm Trooper in recent events.
    Wonder by they bother when it is a forgone conclusion.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    Whose expectations? Sub 60 majority or all the way down to no progress at all?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    Thought they did from 1979 to 1983 ?
    no, the Tory share declined 1.5%. The reason for the majority was a split opposition.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    My phone is like conservative cos it's gone down to 25% (battery) so goodnight enjoy no pensions and LAB government
  • Options

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    What particular expectations would those be?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    TSE is a quasi-Tory :)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The Sun I think is wrong in saying the international aid budget will increase. Mrs May is committing to keeping it the same. I'm uncynical about Mrs May's motives in this instance. I believe she is doing what she thinks is right.

    Isn't she committed to keeping the percentage of GDP the same? Which means the budget grows if GDP grows?

    Unless we have five years of no GDP growth it means the budget will grow - and if there is five year of no GDP growth we'd have far greater worries than what the aid budget is.
    Yeah but the same inflationary uprating applies to everything. It's meaningless to say EVERY budget item is increasing.
    GDP grows in real terms, which means locking something as a percentage of GDP is not inflationary uprating. It is a real terms increase and that does not apply to everything.

    If we average 2.5% real terms growth over the next five years (ambitious to be fair) then that means the budget will have increased by over 13% in real terms over the life of the Parliament.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/855543289034006528

    The Brexiteers seem awfy quiet about this, especially given how vocal they were when Obama said it...
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    Whose expectations? Sub 60 majority or all the way down to no progress at all?

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    What particular expectations would those be?
    The headline of my piece is

    'Why you shouldn't expect a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide this time'
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,844

    FF43 said:

    PISA, who collect comparative international data on educational outcomes, do so to identify common trends amongst the best performing education systems and promote best practice. They reckon class sizes don't make a difference but teacher pay does. The implication being that you're better using your inevitably limited education budgets to fund fewer but better teachers.

    Putting it another way, if teachers want those generous salaries, the deal is they take on larger classes.

    I'm pretty sure parents are keen on smaller class sizes however.

    I believe this is also the OECD prescription. Will try to avoid repeating points I made downthread but the I can't see this trade-off ever being explored in the UK, particularly with teachers also getting the additional planning/assessment/ongoing training time they get in some of the more successful countries taking the route of high class size/high pay/highly educated practitioners. If class sizes do go up, it'll be cost-cutting (or related, recruitment/retention) reasons alone.
    Thanks. Nitpick. PISA is the OECD.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    edited April 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ave_it said:

    Remember no conservative government has ever increased its share of the vote two elections in a row congratulations pm corbyn

    No female Conservative party leader has ever lost a General Election.
    I was too young to vote for Thatcher in 1987 (I was only 11!).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    edited April 2017
    If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    I think Theresa May should increase the age for free bus passes from 60 to 65 and risk losing some votes. She can afford to lose a couple of seats if that's what happens.
  • Options
    My second piece for Sunday is a right humdinger.

    It is entitled

    'Why X will be the most important constituency result this general election'
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    I'd like to stress I've already written a piece saying why the Tories are going to under perform expectations at the general election.

    Whose expectations? Sub 60 majority or all the way down to no progress at all?
    I know it will not happen but if May ended up with roughly the same majority it would have seemed pointless to many.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    For God sake,the con's should be on the front foot with 20% lead but what have had is theresa running away from tv debates,Theresa running away from pension lock,Theresa running away from tax hikes and the only firm hard stance is on oversea's aid - which is a vote loser in my opinion.

    What we have got is corbyn on the front foot,pull your f-king finger out Theresa.

    These posts are reminding me of Casino R's reported missives to Matthew Elliot during the referendum....

    I.e. Well meaning but entirely unnecessary :-)
  • Options
    Jason said:

    I think I might have to turn off all media and not read PB....knee knocking here at the thought of PM Corbyn.

    You're this worried with a 20% poll lead? You have no need to be. The public rejected Brown and Miliband - they sure as hell aren't going to elect an unhinged, dimwitted, 70 year old far left terrorist sympathiser. These headlines are the early firing shots of a very long campaign. The Sun are sabre rattling - they don't want to see Corbyn in Downing Street any more than we do.

    As Corporal Jones said 'don't panic!!'.
    One of my Green voting, Corbyn sympathetic friends asked me for a prediction - I said Lab would really tank once the right wing tabs got their file of Loony Left Jez n' John stories from the 1980s out.

    Most people aged over 45 living in England have a clear memory of an active PIRA targeting civilians, and won't be aware of Jezza's past associations as he was an insignificant backbencher.

    The British public shat it in the polling booth at the prospect of Kinnock, as he was Welsh and ginger, so Chairman Jez has got no chance.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    But I suspect a small bunch of the editorial team have been seized by Remoaner madness.

    Or they are right, and you just haven't figured it out yet.
    I'm a Protestant. They are Catholics. This is the Reformation. There isn't any "debate" to be had on matters of theology. I am intrinsically right, and you Remainers are, by definition, utterly wrong and loathsome, and condemned to eternal perdition.

    This is where we are. Because we won the referendum. And you lost.

    We prevail. Bye bye.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I spoke to my mother yesterday (very much lifelong suburban Tory voter, still anti Brexit but not considering LDs at all) and she was genuinely worried that Corbyn would get in via some sort of agreement with the LDs and SNP. She doesn't think the tories will win. I was quite surprised because it seems like such a foregone conclusion, but maybe that message hasn't caught on with the non anoraks yet?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,283
    Scott_P said:

    The Brexiteers seem awfy quiet about this, especially given how vocal they were when Obama said it...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/jan/21/boris-johnson-trump-wants-to-put-britain-at-front-of-line-video

    The foreign secretary added, ‘I think the new President (of the United States) has said that he wants to put Britain at the front of the line’
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,921
    Ave_it said:

    Tyke johnno I agree CON are imploding like Huddersfield promotion push! We need clear working class right wing policies on helping hard working class people or we will go sub 30%!

    Look, Theresa, I appreciate the policy changes, honestly.

    Keeping foreign aid, lovely. Ending the triple lock for all pensioners except my Dad, fantastic.

    Yes, I know, you'd rather have my vote than four million of those what did you call them, working class plebs. You really shouldn't be rude to those people who read the Sun and the Mail and drive white transit vans.

    Well, I suppose, but the Conservative Party can't just be the Party of the daughters of clergymen, can it ?

    You might be right - perhaps Mr Corbyn won't be so bad.

    No, really, thanks for everything but I still won't be voting Conservative, sorry.

    Regards to Philip - oh, he'll be voting Lib Dem too, will he ?

    Good Night.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618

    My second piece for Sunday is a right humdinger.

    It is entitled

    'Why X will be the most important constituency result this general election'

    Ilford North :lol:
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
  • Options
    Ave_it said:

    My phone is like conservative cos it's gone down to 25% (battery) so goodnight enjoy no pensions and LAB government

    Is this really the same Ave_it? Still if TSE can consider switching sides, then so I suppose can he.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?

    If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
This discussion has been closed.