politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?
Comments
-
Despite an expected lower percentage vote ruthless targeting could be the way to go. Hartlepool and Rotherham could be in play?isam said:Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Uncle Lynton has also shown that you can take people'd preformed judgements and reframe them in different ways to drive voting behaviour. If the Tories just pile on Corbyn and McDonald, they might as well be running the Lib Dems' campaign for them.FrancisUrquhart said:
We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etcCarlottaVance said:Professor Tim Bale:
Indeed, she’s not just going to win; she’s going to win big. Contrary to common wisdom, bookies don’t necessarily know better than opinion pollsters when it comes to predicting political events, but they know a racing certainty when they see one. Within minutes of the PM’s announcement, one national chain was giving odds of 2/9 on an overall majority for the Conservatives, with Labour out on 14/1.
To those Corbynistas who think the public will warm to Jeremy and his policies once they see more of him: Not. Going. To. Happen. If the Labour leader and his team think they’ve had a raw deal from the media – and from the Tories – since he took over, they ain’t seen nothing yet. Even on a level playing field (and it won’t be one) they’d still stand no chance: they’re miles behind on the economy, serious difficulties in the NHS haven’t yet fed through electorally, and Labour is seen as neither trustworthy nor competent. Game over
https://theconversation.com/snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier-76362
Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.0 -
Did anyone take the 8/11 no UKIP seats a while ago w Ladbrokes? Hills are 4/11 now
EDIT and Lads are 2/50 -
Even if people haven't made up their minds who actually thinks Corbyn will do better with more exposure?FrancisUrquhart said:We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etc
Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have, very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.0 -
Or Paddy Ashdown saying he'd eat his hat if ...AnneJGP said:
It really worries me when people are as definite as that - too reminiscent of Famous Last Words.Jason said:
I don't think any sensible PM would turn down an open goal at a general election, which is exactly what the Tories have presented to them. She is Brown-esque in some ways, but her masterstroke was embracing Brexit, unequivocally, after the result. Corbyn and Labour did not do that, and still don't.SeanT said:
Are you OK, hun?Yorkcity said:
Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?SeanT said:
It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.SimonStClare said:G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.
Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.
We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.
She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
I usually dread general elections, especially the last two when none of us were really certain of the result. Not this time. I say with absolute certainty that there is nothing on this planet that could propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. Gary Glitter has a better chance of being PM than he does.0 -
I do not want to see Corbyn massacred.0
-
Yes, will it be the biggest Tory landslide since 1983 or 1931?Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
0 -
ROFLsurbiton said:
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.HYUFD said:
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbynjustin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
She is still a lying bitch.
the party of Blair and Campbell go ape about lies0 -
Chirac was not a Thatcherite like Fillonydoethur said:
Last time that happened Jospin's supporters supported Chirac with the pithy slogan 'vote for the crook not the fascist.'HYUFD said:
If it were to be Fillon v Le Pen it could well be President Le Pen which would effectively end the EU and leave nothing to Brexit from anyway, though it still looks unlikelyAndyJS said:
It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.SeanT said:Just ridiculously close
@amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
More
Last poll from us in France:
Fillon 22%
Le Pen 21.5%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 19%
3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille
Could still work...0 -
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,0000
-
I do. A close to ELE is requiredJonathan said:I do not want to see Corbyn massacred.
0 -
Has that Lord who does his own political modelling and predicted the Tories would win a majority in 2015 given his view on the outcome of the 2017 general election yet?0
-
Only the mentalitists in maomentum...But they also think the Zionist cartel running the media are faking polls which are showing the real picture which sees 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.glw said:
Even if people haven't made up their minds who actually thinks Corbyn will do better with more exposure?FrancisUrquhart said:We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etc
Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have, very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.0 -
4/7 under 10% and 10/11 Nuttall to go in 2017 prob value nowLordWakefield said:
Despite an expected lower percentage vote ruthless targeting could be the way to go. Hartlepool and Rotherham could be in play?isam said:Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If UKIP get no seats and the Tories have a huge majority he will prob go I reckon.0 -
How about Boston and Skegness for a UKIP gain? A resoundingly strong leave area where the Tory MP was remain.0
-
Arrogance, not confidence (though I'm sure she has that too)CarlottaVance said:
Rupert Myers @RupertMyers
It's a sign of Theresa May's confidence, not weakness, that means she feels no need to debate Jeremy0 -
I'm not proposing to give my views until I've had chance to place some bets.ydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
Mr. Isam, got a smidge longer on under 10% for UKIP (1.66). I'd be surprised if they exceeded that. It was 12-13% or so last time, and that was with Farage, pre-referendum.0
-
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)MarkSenior said:Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
0 -
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good betydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
RobD said:
Is it really necessary to call her that?surbiton said:
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.HYUFD said:
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbynjustin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
She is still a lying bitch.
No she is a teller of untruths but who will care.RobD said:
Is it really necessary to call her that?surbiton said:
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.HYUFD said:
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbynjustin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
She is still a lying bitch.0 -
I suppose this makes me the slimy and slippery person you allude to, but I think Theresa May has become a lot more interesting today. She executed a very risky, and as you say, dodgy manoeuvre, as far as I can tell brilliantly. She has strengthened her position enormously.justin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
It will be a Brexit election but I don't think it will make any difference to the Brexit outcome one way or the other. The EU is driving the pace on the negotiations. It's not exactly take it or leave it - the EU will make proposals, the UK will push back here and there, there will be a haggle and then they will agree something close to what the EU originally proposed. A big majority does however make Theresa May's life a lot easier in signing up to the nearly inevitable.
0 -
-
Blair was a Tory...Alanbrooke said:
ROFLsurbiton said:
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.HYUFD said:
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbynjustin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
She is still a lying bitch.
the party of Blair and Campbell go ape about lies
0 -
Meanwhile both Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are calling TMay frit, and asking broadcasters for an empty chair debate0
-
If UKIP are 16/1 again I'm having it!
https://twitter.com/tim_aker/status/852098731398893568
https://twitter.com/tim_aker/status/8521760431547801610 -
No.GIN1138 said:
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.0 -
I only accepted this on face value as I assumed no one was going to go the effort of making a Jamie McGrigor parody account.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Begorrah, Top o' t' mornin, etc etcCarolus_Rex said:
Me too, but I doubt that goes for Mrs C, judging by her avatar!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rex, I did consider that, but as I (on the very rare occasions I have a drink) tend to have had Scottish I go for their spelling.
Herself drinks neither whiskey nor whisky (although -ey is the correct ending as everyone knows)
Where's me shillelagh?
0 -
Allowing Farage to return.isam said:
4/7 under 10% and 10/11 Nuttall to go in 2017 prob value nowLordWakefield said:
Despite an expected lower percentage vote ruthless targeting could be the way to go. Hartlepool and Rotherham could be in play?isam said:Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If UKIP get no seats and the Tories have a huge majority he will prob go I reckon.0 -
two chihuahuas barkScott_P said:Meanwhile both Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are calling TMay frit, and asking broadcasters for an empty chair debate
nobody frightened0 -
Sturgeon standing for Westminster?Scott_P said:Meanwhile both Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are calling TMay frit, and asking broadcasters for an empty chair debate
0 -
Jezza steps down, someone, anyone, even La Thornberry takes over and it's game on.
What is he thinking as he looks in the mirror these days??!!0 -
Just a point. I believe:
The SNP (or any party) cannot abstain from the FTPA/GE vote, as it's based on the number of seats.
If they abstain , then it counts as a vote against.
0 -
I would rather watch new top gear on repeat than that!!!!Scott_P said:Meanwhile both Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are calling TMay frit, and asking broadcasters for an empty chair debate
0 -
All council areas voted for devolution in 1997 (O & S was the narrowest margin at 57% Yes).IanB2 said:
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good betydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O & S and D & G voted no to tax raising powers, the only 2 areas to do so.0 -
It was in favour of devolution but against tax-raising powers, IIRC.IanB2 said:
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good betydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
That said, the SNP have a local issue to work with there. Even if they miss out there, they should take one of the other three, from Labour.0 -
-
Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
16:560 -
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm0 -
TV ads made entirely of Jezza speaking ...david_herdson said:
I'd work on the assumption that Corbyn will do that for them. No need to go too hard on him proactively. Just wait for the media to ask him about the IRA, or for him to lose his rag, or flounder over how his policies don't add up. Then publicise it.Animal_pb said:
The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.david_herdson said:
Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.kle4 said:
Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debateSimonStClare said:G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.
Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.
For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
And against that, run on the same Brexit program May's been outlining for months.0 -
REAL poll from France.
#Macron 23.5 (+0.5
#LePen 22.5 (0
#Fillon 19.5 (0
#Melenchon 19 (-0.5
0 -
You've missed out 1935.HYUFD said:
Yes, will it be the biggest Tory landslide since 1983 or 1931?Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
0 -
LOL!!!williamglenn said:Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm0 -
Admittedly for candidates other than Carmichael: the Lib Dems massively increased their vote shares in the two equivalent Holyrood seats AFTER the Carmichael affair blew up.ydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
Tories must be well over 50% in England and Wales outside London.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Julian Huppert to restand in Cambridge and Sir Bob Russell will decide this week whether to stand again in Colchester .0
-
Having checked back I was actually distantly recalling 1979, when only O&S voted heavily against the deal, with the borders areas also being more narrowly against. Neverthless if the GE north of the border turns into an IndyRef GE then I can't see the SNP ousting Carmichael (who is a smart and engaging guy).david_herdson said:
It was in favour of devolution but against tax-raising powers, IIRC.IanB2 said:
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good betydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
That said, the SNP have a local issue to work with there. Even if they miss out there, they should take one of the other three, from Labour.0 -
Hold on but the keenly tuned bbc anneta has been telling us that the public don't want this all day.Richard_Nabavi said:Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
16:56
0 -
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.GIN1138 said:
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.0 -
I've been wondering that for a while nowTOPPING said:What is he thinking as he looks in the mirror these days??!!
0 -
Doesn't look like massive LD gains.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
You can waffle as much as you like about the NHS, but if the public think you are going to fuck the economy you got bugger all chance.SeanT said:
Oh my word. Look at this:Richard_Nabavi said:Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
16:56
There was a question about which team is best able to manage the economy.
Theresa May and Philip Hammond: 51%
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: 12%
Has any opposition gone into an election with worse polling, headline AND subsidiary, than this?0 -
Just what is the Tory polling score in provincial Brexitania ?0
-
Yes but most of the average CLP membership is a load of £3 Corbyn cultists who wouldn't know how to deliver a leaflet if they tried. Their dreaming is about meet harsh reality.Jonathan said:
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)MarkSenior said:Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
0 -
Islington North is more volatile.SeanT said:
No. BTL on politics.co.uk:williamglenn said:Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm
Lac Dirk
May's seat is a Remain area, isn't it? Can she be PM if she's not even elected?
Like · Reply · 9 · 2 hrs
Sarah Lafferty
Wow I actually had NOT even considered that
Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Em Bird
As a (reluctant) constituent, I think the chances of her losing her seat are miniscule.
Yes, Maidenhead voted pretty overwhelmingly to remain in the EU but I don't think that same majority will turn against May. She consistently polls at 65+% of the electorate here. She is also, it has to be said, a really good local MP, always responsive and active in the community. It would be the biggest electoral shock ever.
Sorry!0 -
I expect Swansea West was strongly Remain, and Swansea East strongly Leave. A small microcosm of Labour’s problems.ydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
In Swansea West, all that will happen is that the local MP will run his own strongly Remain campaign. I am not even sure the LibDems will make third place, let alone first.
The LibDems are not going to find it easy to pick up seats from Labour -- after all, they never have.
Corbyn may be a Leaver, but all that will happen is that the Labour MPs in the University seats will say that they are strongly Remain.
For example, in Cambridge, I think Dan Zeichner will retain the seat. The LibDems have been falling back on the Council.0 -
He is so dense light bends around him...So probably why do I not have a reflection? Or more likely...The machine that makes the mirror work must be broken...I.blame Tory cuts.TOPPING said:Jezza steps down, someone, anyone, even La Thornberry takes over and it's game on.
What is he thinking as he looks in the mirror these days??!!0 -
Once the campaign gets going we're bound to get a rogue poll at some point with them above Labour. It's just a question of serendipity after that.Jonathan said:
Doesn't look like massive LD gains.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
No.williamglenn said:Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm0 -
In my area they've been more active than they have since 01.rottenborough said:
Yes but most of the average CLP membership is a load of £3 Corbyn cultists who wouldn't know how to deliver a leaflet if they tried. Their dreaming is about meet harsh reality.Jonathan said:
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)MarkSenior said:Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
0 -
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=46&LAB=25&LIB=11&UKIP=8&Green=&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015
Con Maj 158, which I think sounds about right. The seats might be different - e.g. Tooting remains Labour but Bassetlaw goes blue.0 -
Probably over 50% in England, including London.Pulpstar said:
Tories must be well over 50% in England and Wales outside London.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I don't think the swings will be uniform. In fact, between the Tories and LD, it will be a bit of reverse of 2015. Labour will get a negative swing against the Tories. How many seats Labour will lose, I am not sure.Jonathan said:
Doesn't look like massive LD gains.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
NowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetime..
NOW IS THE TIME!
'Five times Theresa May ruled out a snap general election'
http://tinyurl.com/lsfx95y0 -
About as bad as Hague/Major.SeanT said:
Baxtered, that gives a Tory majority of.... 160.Jonathan said:
Doesn't look like massive LD gains.AlastairMeeks said:
Jesus.
Labour on 157.0 -
Mr. Senior, Huppert must stand a strong chance of reclaiming Cambridge.0
-
Polls I have been looking at recently generally put the Tories in the high 40s in England, so a figure of 50% or so excluding London is quite plausible. They seem to have been above 50% in the rest of the South for some time.Sean_F said:
Probably over 50% in England, including London.Pulpstar said:
Tories must be well over 50% in England and Wales outside London.AlastairMeeks said:
Also:
https://twitter.com/CapX/status/854364327004057600
Happy days!0 -
From Twitter:
"David Herdson @DavidHerdson 3m3 minutes ago
Today's ICM poll (over 75s):
Con 85
LD 6
Lab 5
Oth 3"0 -
I think May would get more than 14million votes at 46% with a 70% turnout.0
-
AndyJS said:
From Twitter:
"David Herdson @DavidHerdson 3m3 minutes ago
Today's ICM poll (over 75s):
Con 85
LD 6
Lab 5
Oth 3"
0 -
-
My mother-in-law has spoken from middle england and although she didn't quite use Sean's language skills, it was along the same line. She also said May has basically said: "Back me to delivery a working Brexit, or choose Corbyn to do it".SeanT said:Theuniondivvie said:NowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetimeNowisnotthetime..
NOW IS THE TIME!
'Five times Theresa May ruled out a snap general election'
http://tinyurl.com/lsfx95y
And yet polls show 55% approve of her election, and just 15% oppose
No one gives a fuck about this POLITICIAN CHANGES MIND shocker0 -
She was in the debates in 2015. Did you miss it ?CarlottaVance said:
Sturgeon standing for Westminster?Scott_P said:Meanwhile both Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon are calling TMay frit, and asking broadcasters for an empty chair debate
0 -
No but as a resident I expect her majority to drop back down to around the 20k mark with the LDs re-taking 2nd.Sean_F said:
No.williamglenn said:Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm0 -
I'm almost convinced. But they don't have to vote *against*, do they? They have to not vote in favour. If I was one of these MPs I wouldn't be in Westminster helping the government with their parliamentary arithmetic. I'd be back in my constituency, preparing for the election.SeanT said:
The tories have 330 MPs, they need 430 to win the vote (2/3 of the Commons). They will have all the NI parties and LD MPs voting for a GE, and (it seems) the SNP as well.Scott_P said:
It would take a monumental rebellion in Labour - at least 3/4 of Labour MPs to vote against Corbyn, to stop this GE. Ain't gonna happen.0 -
Zero chance of SNP taking O&SIanB2 said:
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good betydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
The Green share is pretty good, I imagine, if the SNP is at 5%.Pulpstar said:
Tories must be well over 50% in England and Wales outside London.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The Chinese have been on the line...they want to know how you get so much support for a single party without fixing the polls.AndyJS said:From Twitter:
"David Herdson @DavidHerdson 3m3 minutes ago
Today's ICM poll (over 75s):
Con 85
LD 6
Lab 5
Oth 3"0 -
Tories on 48%?AlastairMeeks said:
0 -
Mr. JS, that elderly lead is staggering.0
-
During the campaign I look forward to President Trump hugging the Prime Minister on the steps of 10 Downing Street.
Titter .....0 -
NHS, economy? So not about mandates for Brexit then?FrancisUrquhart said:
You can waffle as much as you like about the NHS, but if the public think you are going to fuck the economy you got bugger all chance.SeanT said:
Oh my word. Look at this:Richard_Nabavi said:Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
16:56
There was a question about which team is best able to manage the economy.
Theresa May and Philip Hammond: 51%
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: 12%
Has any opposition gone into an election with worse polling, headline AND subsidiary, than this?0 -
We have to guess that Uncle Lynton and Co have been busy polling about May's U-Turn, how to play it and what tone to set for the GE campaign.0
-
Been braced for Tory govt till 2030. This makes things better. Think the next five years will be brutal for whoever wins.SeanT said:
Yes. Labour will be saved by FPTP.Jonathan said:
About as bad as Hague/Major.SeanT said:
Baxtered, that gives a Tory majority of.... 160.Jonathan said:
Doesn't look like massive LD gains.AlastairMeeks said:
Jesus.
Labour on 157.
Long haul back from 157 though. Ten years to a majority? Means Tory government until 2027.
Must warm your heart, that thought.0 -
Which is why it would be a surprise. Differential turnout might just do it though. One to watch.FF43 said:
Admittedly for candidates other than Carmichael: the Lib Dems massively increased their vote shares in the two equivalent Holyrood seats AFTER the Carmichael affair blew up.ydoethur said:
Some possible surprises:AlastairMeeks said:
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.Richard_Nabavi said:This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.0 -
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?surbiton said:
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.HYUFD said:
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbynjustin124 said:I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
She is still a lying bitch.0 -
How "comfortable" is "comfortable" though? I mean are we talking Major 1992? Thatch 79? Or Blair 2005? Or Thatch 1983? Or Blair 1997?JackW said:
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.GIN1138 said:
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.0
