Labour are going to get done like a dockside hooker. Even if the polls are overstating the tories, they're not going to be overstating them by that much.
And yet polls show 55% approve of her election, and just 15% oppose
No one gives a fuck about this POLITICIAN CHANGES MIND shocker
My mother-in-law has spoken from middle england and although she didn't quite use Sean's language skills, it was along the same line. She also said May has basically said: "Back me to delivery a working Brexit, or choose Corbyn to do it".
It's like weighing up a 3 star hotel in Costa del Sol vs a 1 star hotel in North Korea for your summer holidays this year...
One could be ok, but probably be a bit shit with the toilets might not work that well and the shower runs out of hot water vs possibility of being on the wrong end of thermo-nuclear war.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
Have you not got the memo (from Deutsche Bank)? The implication of May's move today is that Brexit will be an even slower and more drawn out affair than it would have been otherwise.
People who remember Labour in the 1970s not keen on a repeat then.
But Justin Short Straws was telling me yesterday that it was the Tories, the Tories, the Tories with their 3 day week and high taxation that people remember about the 1970s....
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
Also, every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country has been saying "you've got no mandate for Brexit", "you've got no mandate for Brexit" roughly every six seconds 24/7, well, now she's about to get a mandate, and they will have to shut the F up.
The irony is that she'll get a mandate for a hard Brexit, and then deliver a soft one.
A week is a long time in politics never mind 7 weeks. But I think it's very likely she gets a increased majority and a substantial one at that.
Not expecting a 1997 sort of crushing though. That sort of crushing could happen with Corbyn leading Labour, but unlikely imo. Everything would have to go catastrophically wrong for Labour during the campaign.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
Have you not got the memo (from Deutsche Bank)? The implication of May's move today is that Brexit will be an even slower and more drawn out affair than it would have been otherwise.
You really are big on the Appeal to Authority today, aren't you? The widow of a Polish MP this, Deutsche Bank that. What with DB being so fucking useless at their supposed core competence (money laundering and Libor rigging without getting caught), I'll pass on their political forecasting skills.
Also, every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country has been saying "you've got no mandate for Brexit", "you've got no mandate for Brexit" roughly every six seconds 24/7, well, now she's about to get a mandate, and they will have to shut the F up.
You would think they would be happy, Brexit could be thwarted in 7 weeks time if they get their act together.
People who remember Labour in the 1970s not keen on a repeat then.
But Justin Short Straws was telling me yesterday that it was the Tories, the Tories, the Tories with their 3 day week and high taxation that people remember about the 1970s....
but he's definitely not a Labour supporter. Definitely.
John Major's vote share in 1997 was still above 30%. It was actually marginally greater than Ed Miliband's in 2015.
The polling has Labour currently in the mid-20s, and nearly all the polling averages in the run up to General Elections in the modern era have overestimated Labour's support and underestimated that of the Tories. Labour is only likely to be saved from an apocalyptic rout by all those supermajorities in under-sized urban redoubts.
Three questions:
1. How much harder will it be for them ever to recover if the Liberal Democrats can make any further significant headway? An advance from their current position of around 10-11% well into the mid-teens would probably come at the expense primarily of Labour's remaining centre-left support, rather than from Tory voters. 2. How much harder will it be for Labour once a post-GE Tory Government finally puts boundary reform through Parliament? 3. Just as 30% appears to be the absolute floor of the Conservative vote, even when they are being put through the wringer, is it now also Labour's *ceiling*? Even if they somehow come to their senses after a good battering and replace Corbyn with someone more sensible, how bad is the long-term reputational damage to the party likely to prove?
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
Also, every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country has been saying "you've got no mandate for Brexit", "you've got no mandate for Brexit" roughly every six seconds 24/7, well, now she's about to get a mandate, and they will have to shut the F up.
The irony is that she'll get a mandate for a hard Brexit, and then deliver a soft one.
She will deliver whatever the EU decides, fundamentally. The election won't make much of a difference one way or the other. But it makes her life easier in dealing with her partisans.
Well Jezza's car crash performance on Good Morning Britain this morning seems like months ago now....what is your biggest mistake.....not answering, not answering, oh ok, I have made far too many to decide on one...
Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)
Yes but most of the average CLP membership is a load of £3 Corbyn cultists who wouldn't know how to deliver a leaflet if they tried. Their dreaming is about meet harsh reality.
In my area they've been more active than they have since 01.
Mr. Jonathan, isn't your area Horsham, West Sussex? If so, Labour party activists being active may not amount to much. By the same token I gatecrashed an emergency meeting of the Hurstpierpoint Labour membership in the pub this lunchtime. He didn't mind as he was stuck on three down in the crossword.
Q4. The Prime Minister has previously been adamant that she did not want to call an early General Election. Which one of the following do you most agree with? Base: All respondents
The situation has changed and it is right that the Prime Minister has changed her mind.: 54 Nothing has changed the Prime Minister is wrong to subject the British people to another election. 21
Will you be re-invigorating your ARSE for the 2017 general election?
No.
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.
How "comfortable" is "comfortable" though? I mean are we talking Major 1992? Thatch 79? Or Blair 2005? Or Thatch 1983? Or Blair 1997?
Are you naughtily attempting to a post retirement ARSE evaluation ?!!? ..
In truth the PM has a manageable majority presently. Comfortable is 30+ . Ted managed quite easily from 70-74.
The size of May's majority will be determined by differential turnout. Labour voters sitting on their hands and Jezza/Sturgeon pulling voters to the Tory column. It's likely to be a bloodbath for Labour. Very comfortable to landslide. Min 60-160 Con majority.
Jezza will be putting the case for how the country could be run. Emphasis on the could be, or hypothetically.
He won't be putting the case. He'll just zoom around shouting tired slogans about 'privatised NHS' to packed out church halls of cultists, while the rest of the country quietly prepares to slaughter him.
Am I right in saying that boundary changes from 2015 have not yet passed into law.If so then the June 8th election will be fought on existing boundaries -that mean the Tories will get less help than they thought.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
But similarly, will new MPs that have been incumbent for only 2 years get the usual incumbency bonus?
Some initial thoughts on factors which might cause particular constituencies in England & Wales to deviate substantially from UNS. Obviously very subjective at the moment, but refining this and quantifying the effects might be the way to go in modelling this election (in each case 'better' means "better than UNS would indicate"). In no particular order:
1. Region; Midlands better for Con and worse for Lab. SW better for LD and worse for Con 2. High Remain vote in referendum better for LD at expense of either Lab or Con 3. High UKIP vote share in GE2015 better for Con (at least in the south of England, maybe not in former Labour strongholds) 4. High non-white demographics better for Lab, high WWC demographic worse for Lab 5. LD will do a lot better in seats where former well-established LD MPs are restanding, less well in former seats where there's a new candidate
Will you be re-invigorating your ARSE for the 2017 general election?
No.
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.
How "comfortable" is "comfortable" though? I mean are we talking Major 1992? Thatch 79? Or Blair 2005? Or Thatch 1983? Or Blair 1997?
Are you naughtily attempting to a post retirement ARSE evaluation ?!!? ..
In truth the PM has a manageable majority presently. Comfortable is 30+ . Ted managed quite easily from 70-74.
The size of May's majority will be determined by differential turnout. Labour voters sitting on their hands and Jezza/Sturgeon pulling voters to the Tory column. It's likely to be a bloodbath for Labour. Very comfortable to landslide. Min 60-160 Con majority.
WOW! OK thanks Mr Jack, Will see how it plays out.
Will the Broad casters threaten to empty chair May in the same that was suggested in 2015 re-Cameron?
In 2015 the broadcasters colluded to bounce Cameron into a series of TV debates, he basically told them to foxtrot Oscar. – I doubt there’s time to organise TV debates this time.
Orkney and Shetland are two separate constituencies in the Scottish parliament and had elections last year. Some on here forecast that the Libs would only hold one of the two seats. (Indeed, some asked if the LibDems would end up with any Holyrood seats.)
The results were:
Orkney: LibDems 67.4% +31.6%
Shetland: LibDems 67.4% +19.9%
(Not a typo, they really did get 67.4% in both the Orkney and Shetland constituencies.)
Anyone who thinks that O&S will be anything other than the simplest of LibDem holds is a blitering idiot. I'd expect the LDs to poll north of 60% in the seat.
So, the Grey Vote has robbed the young of their EU citizenship, and now looks like depriving them of their hopes of a proper Socialist government.
Can an outbreak of voting by the young be far away? What will the manifesto look like? - No MPs over the age of 30 25 - No voting rights over the age of 30 25
Orkney and Shetland are two separate constituencies in the Scottish parliament and had elections last year. Some on here forecast that the Libs would only hold one of the two seats. (Indeed, some asked if the LibDems would end up with any Holyrood seats.)
The results were:
Orkney: LibDems 67.4% +31.6%
Shetland: LibDems 67.4% +19.9%
(Not a typo, they really did get 67.4% in both the Orkney and Shetland constituencies.)
Anyone who thinks that O&S will be anything other than the simplest of LibDem holds is a blitering idiot. I'd expect the LDs to poll north of 60% in the seat.
Amusing fact: when Jim Wallace stood in the first Orkney Scottish Parliament elections in 1999, he got... (drumroll)... 67.4%.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Orkney and Shetland are two separate constituencies in the Scottish parliament and had elections last year. Some on here forecast that the Libs would only hold one of the two seats. (Indeed, some asked if the LibDems would end up with any Holyrood seats.)
The results were:
Orkney: LibDems 67.4% +31.6%
Shetland: LibDems 67.4% +19.9%
(Not a typo, they really did get 67.4% in both the Orkney and Shetland constituencies.)
Anyone who thinks that O&S will be anything other than the simplest of LibDem holds is a blitering idiot. I'd expect the LDs to poll north of 60% in the seat.
Amusing fact: when Jim Wallace stood in the first Orkney Scottish Parliament elections in 1999, he got... (drumroll)... 67.4%.
Do they even bother to count the votes? "Aye, looks to be about sixty seven point four of the vote there, Hamish...."
Wonderful! Labour now has about seven weeks essentially to convince the English electorate to back a Far Left minority Government led by Corbyn, McDonnell, Thornberry and Abbott, and dependent for its survival on the votes of Scottish Nationalists, whom the bulk of said electorate loathe. Good luck with that one.
I shan't dare to believe it absolutely until the results are in, but the Tory version of Blair '97 has to be on now. Watching Labour burn - and a richly deserved fate it will be.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
I agree. I don't understand what Corbyn now has to gain from staying leader.What does he have to gain from being roted from May? He must know that he will be successfully challenged post 9th June. So why not go now and avoid the personal humiliation?
Am I right in saying that boundary changes from 2015 have not yet passed into law.If so then the June 8th election will be fought on existing boundaries -that mean the Tories will get less help than they thought.
People who remember Labour in the 1970s not keen on a repeat then.
But Justin Short Straws was telling me yesterday that it was the Tories, the Tories, the Tories with their 3 day week and high taxation that people remember about the 1970s....
Perfectly true - the period of major industrial strife was in the early to mid 1970s under Heath. The mid to late 70s was much more quiet until the Winter of Discontent at the end!
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
I agree. I don't understand what Corbyn now has to gain from staying leader.What does he have to gain from being roted from May? He must know that he will be successfully challenged post 9th June. So why not go now and avoid the personal humiliation?
I am not so sure he will go without trouble. A few of his comrades will be safe. Most of the loonies are in safe seats. If Corbyn doesn't go and , in fact, survives, I'm afraid the party breaks up.
Comments
One could be ok, but probably be a bit shit with the toilets might not work that well and the shower runs out of hot water vs possibility of being on the wrong end of thermo-nuclear war.
Harry ColeVERIFIED ACCOUNT @MrHarryCole 2 mins2 minutes ago
Labour messaging latest: "hope, justice, and social justice for all".
errr... catchy.
Not expecting a 1997 sort of crushing though. That sort of crushing could happen with Corbyn leading Labour, but unlikely imo. Everything would have to go catastrophically wrong for Labour during the campaign.
The polling has Labour currently in the mid-20s, and nearly all the polling averages in the run up to General Elections in the modern era have overestimated Labour's support and underestimated that of the Tories. Labour is only likely to be saved from an apocalyptic rout by all those supermajorities in under-sized urban redoubts.
Three questions:
1. How much harder will it be for them ever to recover if the Liberal Democrats can make any further significant headway? An advance from their current position of around 10-11% well into the mid-teens would probably come at the expense primarily of Labour's remaining centre-left support, rather than from Tory voters.
2. How much harder will it be for Labour once a post-GE Tory Government finally puts boundary reform through Parliament?
3. Just as 30% appears to be the absolute floor of the Conservative vote, even when they are being put through the wringer, is it now also Labour's *ceiling*? Even if they somehow come to their senses after a good battering and replace Corbyn with someone more sensible, how bad is the long-term reputational damage to the party likely to prove?
The situation has changed and it is right that the Prime Minister has changed her mind.: 54
Nothing has changed the Prime Minister is wrong to subject the British people to another election. 21
In truth the PM has a manageable majority presently. Comfortable is 30+ . Ted managed quite easily from 70-74.
The size of May's majority will be determined by differential turnout. Labour voters sitting on their hands and Jezza/Sturgeon pulling voters to the Tory column. It's likely to be a bloodbath for Labour. Very comfortable to landslide. Min 60-160 Con majority.
"Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."
lol the maxim is real.
* yes I know there is a lot of debate of if this is true or not.
1. Region; Midlands better for Con and worse for Lab. SW better for LD and worse for Con
2. High Remain vote in referendum better for LD at expense of either Lab or Con
3. High UKIP vote share in GE2015 better for Con (at least in the south of England, maybe not in former Labour strongholds)
4. High non-white demographics better for Lab, high WWC demographic worse for Lab
5. LD will do a lot better in seats where former well-established LD MPs are restanding, less well in former seats where there's a new candidate
Con maj > 100: 24
Con maj < 100: 29
Con-Ld coal: 3
And other permutations......Lab maj not asked......
If anything, it's a little too understated...
Orkney and Shetland are two separate constituencies in the Scottish parliament and had elections last year. Some on here forecast that the Libs would only hold one of the two seats. (Indeed, some asked if the LibDems would end up with any Holyrood seats.)
The results were:
Orkney:
LibDems 67.4% +31.6%
Shetland:
LibDems 67.4% +19.9%
(Not a typo, they really did get 67.4% in both the Orkney and Shetland constituencies.)
Anyone who thinks that O&S will be anything other than the simplest of LibDem holds is a blitering idiot. I'd expect the LDs to poll north of 60% in the seat.
Can an outbreak of voting by the young be far away? What will the manifesto look like?
- No MPs over the age of
3025- No voting rights over the age of
3025Macron 24 (=)
Le Pen 23 (-1)
Fillon 18.5 (+1.5)
Melenchon 18 (=)
http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/sondage-presidentielle-macron-le-pen-creuse-ecart-fillon-devant-melenchon-7788189207
Another One Bites the Dust? (Labour leaders' swan song....)
new thread
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/854372692723720192
Wonderful! Labour now has about seven weeks essentially to convince the English electorate to back a Far Left minority Government led by Corbyn, McDonnell, Thornberry and Abbott, and dependent for its survival on the votes of Scottish Nationalists, whom the bulk of said electorate loathe. Good luck with that one.
I shan't dare to believe it absolutely until the results are in, but the Tory version of Blair '97 has to be on now. Watching Labour burn - and a richly deserved fate it will be.
Tory ....... 345.5
Labour .... 195.5
LibDem ..... 25.5
UKIP ........... 0
So pretty much as you were!
Very disappointing for Mrs May if this were indeed to be the outcome.