In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
That's a big call.
As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.
However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
As I said before the LDs need to focus on the seats that voted Remain like Truro & Falmouth. In Devon, Totnes voted Remain and they might have a chance there even though they haven't won it before.
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
If Jo Swinson got back in, she would be red hot favourite for next leader.
Jon Nicholson seems like one of the better and more affable SNP MPs though, so I think he'd have some incumbency advantage. Michelle Thomson may well be more vulnerable given her various screw ups post election, and Edinburgh is surely fertile ground for the yellow peril.
I can't comment on Jon Nicholson (don't know him) but agree on Edinburgh West, with either Mike Crockart or Alex Cole-Hamilton I would expect a serious attempt to get the seat back.
When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?
No.
Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" !
Arguably the second GE later that year was also 'snap', as Wilson sought to move from hung parliament to majority territory. He managed it - by 3 seats. Both main parties lost vote share though, to the Liberals....
I thought that despite their "One More Heave" election slogan that October, Feb was actually better for the Liberals?
That was the year that got me first interested in politics.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.
But a 7 week campaign is hardly a short campaign - indeed it is more than twice the length of both 1974 elections.
By today's standards it's incredibly short, because normally we see the election coming many months beforehand, so the campaigning starts early (long before the "official" campaign).
The GE of May 2015 essentially began on Jan 1st, 2015 - five LOOOONG months of electioneering.
This is just seven weeks. Short. Sharp. Shiny. Yay.
2010 was very similar, as well.
This is also (somewhat obviously, I think) compared to any of our near neighbours - US one lasts for what seems like *years*.
Is Gorton By-election off - contractory tweets coming from MEN.
There must be a standoff between the "writ has been moved, can't be unmoved" lawyers and the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" lawyers?
From wiki:
If the polling day for a by-election is overtaken by a dissolution of Parliament, the writ is automatically cancelled; the last such occasion was in 1924 when a writ for a by-election in London University was issued during the recess on 22 September 1924. Four candidates were nominated when nominations closed on 1 October, with polling scheduled for 13–17 October;[10] When the Government fell over the Campbell Case, the Prime Minister obtained a snap dissolution on 9 October, and the by-election did not take place.[11]
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
Vince Cable to stand - be interesting if the conservatives in Broxtowe let Anna Soubry stand as a conservative, also Nicky Morgan in Loughborough
Both are personally popular in the constituencies. I've noted that the more heated opinions about them appear to be inversely related to the proximity to the constituencies.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
This is no election for staying at home, Joff. The LibDems would be privileged to have your support.
Within minutes of the announcement I had an email from a local Labour voter offering to deliver leaflets for us 'just this time' to send Labour a message about Brexit and Corbyn. You'll be in good company.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.
Of course he makes sense - he's a political dipshit.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
Paradoxically, a thumping majority may lead to a softer Brexit.
If the LDs lose a seat I think it might be Southport. There was a big UKIP vote there last time which might transfer to the Tories.
The UKIP vote collapsed in Southport last May and went to the Lib Dems who won all 7 wards in the parliamentary seat easily
i doubt the UKIP vote went to the LDs. What was the turnout?
We know that all LDs always vote, come rain or shine, in all elections. it's in their DNA. Surely ex-Kippers stayed home, couldn't be bothered, and the fervent LD voters all trooped down to the church hall as ever.
In a general the turnout will be up, but given all LDs voted in the locals anyway, their absolute vote can't go up...Kippers will come and vote blue
Having said that it feels unlikely that any of the 2015 LD wins will go to anyone else. core of the core.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
That's a big call.
As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.
However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.
I'm looking at about 365 to 380 for the Conservatives.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I think the Lib Dems could spike up to 20% nationally in this GE.
But, I'm not sure how that'd affect seat tallies, and might assist Tory gains in several Labour areas too.
Is Gorton By-election off - contractory tweets coming from MEN.
There must be a standoff between the "writ has been moved, can't be unmoved" lawyers and the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" lawyers?
From wiki:
If the polling day for a by-election is overtaken by a dissolution of Parliament, the writ is automatically cancelled; the last such occasion was in 1924 when a writ for a by-election in London University was issued during the recess on 22 September 1924. Four candidates were nominated when nominations closed on 1 October, with polling scheduled for 13–17 October;[10] When the Government fell over the Campbell Case, the Prime Minister obtained a snap dissolution on 9 October, and the by-election did not take place.[11]
OK that sounds definitive, insofar as Wiki can ever be such.
So the question becomes, when is the latest date for a dissolution that would allow June 8th to go ahead?
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.
Who leads a movement is hugely important, particularly in this day and age, in terms of where it is going and if that is a good thing.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.
The movement doesn't get the purse strings and nuclear button
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.
Who says she would go no-confidence? If the opposition don't want to oppose in a GE then they have just emasculated themselves without even needing an election.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.
Not only is he stupid, he is also a bad politician. May, she maybe is a liar, but she is a devious politician. How many Tory corpses has she left behind ?
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
Out of interest... What have you got against the lib Dems?
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
Paradoxically, a thumping majority may lead to a softer Brexit.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
The softest Brexit is likely to come from TMay having a decent majority.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
That's a big call.
As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.
However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.
I'm looking at about 365 to 380 for the Conservatives.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)
Mike and myself will be trying to persuade Alastair to do a daily thread during the election campaign.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I think the Lib Dems could spike up to 20% nationally in this GE.
But, I'm not sure how that'd affect seat tallies, and might assist Tory gains in several Labour areas too.
Base case for me is back to 2010, in votes, and more or less in seats (a few won't be regained because the former MP has walked and the organisation decayed). Then the question becomes how will the campaign play out? May has made this the Brexit Election; she has a strong message to play but the weakness of less unity behind her on that issue than it currently appears. The LibDems by contrast can be clear and pretty much united. And what's Labour gonna say?
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.
Who says she would go no-confidence? If the opposition don't want to oppose in a GE then they have just emasculated themselves without even needing an election.
Seriously, at times like this politicalbetting comes into its own. Just a small opportunity to express my gratitude to mike and all who keep it running.
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con lose 15 to LD Con gain 60 from Lab Con gain 5 from SNP
I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.
But a 7 week campaign is hardly a short campaign - indeed it is more than twice the length of both 1974 elections.
By today's standards it's incredibly short, because normally we see the election coming many months beforehand, so the campaigning starts early (long before the "official" campaign).
The GE of May 2015 essentially began on Jan 1st, 2015 - five LOOOONG months of electioneering.
This is just seven weeks. Short. Sharp. Shiny. Yay.
2010 was very similar, as well.
This is also (somewhat obviously, I think) compared to any of our near neighbours - US one lasts for what seems like *years*.
We have been denied a 2020 electoral supershow - UK and US GEs in the same year.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.
You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.
Getting 'annihilated' is something most progressives do NOT want. It would be a long road back from such a defeat. A 200-220 seats Labour party will still mean the end of Corbyn and a respectable base to fight from.
Seriously, at times like this politicalbetting comes into its own. Just a small opportunity to express my gratitude to mike and all who keep it running.
Think of all those we'd bore to tears in real life without the outlet.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
Wrong. Most of the UKIP votes came from the LibDems.
When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?
No.
Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" !
Arguably the second GE later that year was also 'snap', as Wilson sought to move from hung parliament to majority territory. He managed it - by 3 seats. Both main parties lost vote share though, to the Liberals....
The Labour vote went up in the October election -the Liberals fell back compared with February.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
Paradoxically, a thumping majority may lead to a softer Brexit.
I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.
Didn't she say she would stand down at the next GE?
I think she did but she probably didn't expect it to be this soon. Her constituency is likely to be very keen for her to stand again. I quite like her. She's feisty.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?
surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
This is no election for staying at home, Joff. The LibDems would be privileged to have your support.
Within minutes of the announcement I had an email from a local Labour voter offering to deliver leaflets for us 'just this time' to send Labour a message about Brexit and Corbyn. You'll be in good company.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
That's a big call.
As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.
However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.
I'm looking at about 365 to 380 for the Conservatives.
Do you fancy Luton South?
TBH, I think it's just out of reach, whatever the polls are saying.
Seriously, at times like this politicalbetting comes into its own. Just a small opportunity to express my gratitude to mike and all who keep it running.
Think of all those we'd bore to tears in real life without the outlet.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)
Mike and myself will be trying to persuade Alastair to do a daily thread during the election campaign.
We just haven't told him yet.
Let's perhaps keep it under wraps just a little bit longer.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.
I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.
The softest Brexit is likely to come from TMay having a decent majority.
No! No! No! The Italian based rentier thinks having May in hock to the right wing loons of her party is the way to secure a soft Brexit.
Why, no one, least of all him, knows, but there we are....
Not heard anything yet – the next couple of weeks will require a lot of soul searching by MPs, I suspect we’ll soon hear many announce their imminent departure. Clegg is a maybe IMHO.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)
Mike and myself will be trying to persuade Alastair to do a daily thread during the election campaign.
We just haven't told him yet.
Let's perhaps keep it under wraps just a little bit longer.
It's not me that needs to be told. It's my other half. That's an altogether more challenging proposition.
I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.
I believe she has said today that she will stand again.
2h Mhairi Black MP @MhairiBlack I will be standing again in GE. This is our opportunity to once again reject the Tories’ agenda and provide a strong voice for Scotland.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
Bit surprised. The PB Tories are talking their majority down. They are in 150 territory.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
Eastbourne voted heavily for Leave so I think a LD gain is not particularly likely. Interesting that the UKIP share in the polls isn't down much at all, to around 11% from 13% at GE2015. Yet they seem to be struggling to find candidates for the local elections.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
Wrong. Most of the UKIP votes came from the LibDems.
Inasmuch as that's the case (and I don't think it's as simple as that), that doesn't mean they'll go back to the LibDems. The political landscape has radically changed.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?
surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
Farron is one of the best campaigners there is. OK he may not be as much a heavyweight politico as Clegg, but then Farron won't be pitching to be PM, or even DPM. Is May a better campaigner than Cameron? Is Corbyn a better campaigner than Miliband? Yes...exciting times.
A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.
Well, it's a theory.
Doesn't really work when Corbyn is more of a leaver than anyone short of Farage.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
Interesting that the UKIP share in the polls isn't down much at all, to around 11% from 13% at GE2015. Yet they seem to be struggling to find candidates for the local elections.
UKIP has already hit their Brexit iceberg. They may be still floating at the moment...
Comments
As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.
However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.
All you get is Torrrr....crrrhhhhhhhchhhhhs.....NHS....NHS...crrhrhhshshrhrshhs
Or Sir Talbot Buxomley
That was the year that got me first interested in politics.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-conservatives-could-take-12908799
So 2 Tory gains in sight
This is also (somewhat obviously, I think) compared to any of our near neighbours - US one lasts for what seems like *years*.
If the polling day for a by-election is overtaken by a dissolution of Parliament, the writ is automatically cancelled; the last such occasion was in 1924 when a writ for a by-election in London University was issued during the recess on 22 September 1924. Four candidates were nominated when nominations closed on 1 October, with polling scheduled for 13–17 October;[10] When the Government fell over the Campbell Case, the Prime Minister obtained a snap dissolution on 9 October, and the by-election did not take place.[11]
Within minutes of the announcement I had an email from a local Labour voter offering to deliver leaflets for us 'just this time' to send Labour a message about Brexit and Corbyn. You'll be in good company.
Vote Labour! JC4PM
We know that all LDs always vote, come rain or shine, in all elections. it's in their DNA. Surely ex-Kippers stayed home, couldn't be bothered, and the fervent LD voters all trooped down to the church hall as ever.
In a general the turnout will be up, but given all LDs voted in the locals anyway, their absolute vote can't go up...Kippers will come and vote blue
Having said that it feels unlikely that any of the 2015 LD wins will go to anyone else. core of the core.
She had already announced her decision to stand down in 2020.
But, I'm not sure how that'd affect seat tallies, and might assist Tory gains in several Labour areas too.
So the question becomes, when is the latest date for a dissolution that would allow June 8th to go ahead?
Who says she would go no-confidence? If the opposition don't want to oppose in a GE then they have just emasculated themselves without even needing an election.
One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/854328244576944128
My surprise is at the odds being offered by other punters.
The softest Brexit is likely to come from TMay having a decent majority.
We just haven't told him yet.
Better than 2010 is quite achievable IMO.
Seriously, at times like this politicalbetting comes into its own. Just a small opportunity to express my gratitude to mike and all who keep it running.
surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
https://twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/854298973494018049
Why, no one, least of all him, knows, but there we are....
2h
Mhairi Black MP @MhairiBlack
I will be standing again in GE. This is our opportunity to once again reject the Tories’ agenda and provide a strong voice for Scotland.
UKIP has already hit their Brexit iceberg. They may be still floating at the moment...