Wonder if the first polls with the work after this announcement will see an uptick for Labour - accepted wisdom is they might drop lower as people really, truly contemplate voting Labour, but fact is a lot of people like COrbyn, and plenty of others love Labour or hate the Tories so much, that they might in fact do the oppositie - realise they don't want a Tory majority even if it means voting Corbyn, and there is an uptick.
Wonder if the first polls with the work after this announcement will see an uptick for Labour - accepted wisdom is they might drop lower as people really, truly contemplate voting Labour, but fact is a lot of people like COrbyn, and plenty of others love Labour or hate the Tories so much, that they might in fact do the oppositie - realise they don't want a Tory majority even if it means voting Corbyn, and there is an uptick.
It'll be fascinating to see how much the LDs tick up over the next few weeks.
Seriously, are people saying that a large majority is needed to make sure that Brexit is done 'right'? Surely the reverse is true in a healthy democracy. This is the very time that extra scrutiny is needed. Maybe I am just old fashioned!
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.
I'm no fan of May, but do you really think that sort of hyperbole helps beyond emotional release?
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.
I'm no fan of May, but do you really think that sort of hyperbole helps beyond emotional release?
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure by him and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
Any news from Ed? Surely there is a safe seat somewhere with someone who fancies a few quiet years in House of Lords?
Safe seat for Labour with Corbyn leading the party....
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
Erm...she's proposing a GE. NO new powers. No dictatorship. She could lose. She could lose her own seat. Unlikely - but she's offering a free choice. It's not exactly the Enabling Act. You seem to be confused. And it's certainly true that a pre-Brexit parliament in a post-Brexit world is a mess. We need a clearing of the air.
Wonder if the first polls with the work after this announcement will see an uptick for Labour - accepted wisdom is they might drop lower as people really, truly contemplate voting Labour, but fact is a lot of people like COrbyn, and plenty of others love Labour or hate the Tories so much, that they might in fact do the oppositie - realise they don't want a Tory majority even if it means voting Corbyn, and there is an uptick.
It is going to take a hell of a big tick to make much difference.
Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.
The dislike of Corbyn will be greater than the 'desire' for the lib dems.
How's their mansion tax policy these days?
It's not ony that. Zac wasn't standing as a Conservative, he'd made himself unpopular because of what was seen as a silly gimmick of a by-election and also his inept mayoral campaign, and in any case by-elections are generally easier for oppostion parties (especailly the LibDems) than GEs. So the starting base of a 4.5% LibDem majority is probably not enough for them to hold the seat IMO.
Zac was standing in a bye election so he could oppose government policy on Heathrow. I am amazed as many Tories voted for him as they did.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure by him and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
Any news from Ed? Surely there is a safe seat somewhere with someone who fancies a few quiet years in House of Lords?
Safe seat for Labour with Corbyn leading the party....
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.
Surely the people are going to turn out in their millions to prevent Brexit, so her language won't matter.
Seriously, are people saying that a large majority is needed to make sure that Brexit is done 'right'? Surely the reverse is true in a healthy democracy. This is the very time that extra scrutiny is needed. Maybe I am just old fashioned!
You are quite right. It makes it easier for May, which has advantages for the country in some respects, but it is not needed.
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con lose 15 to LD Con gain 60 from Lab Con gain 5 from SNP
Result: Con maj circa 100.
Is that the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon I hear in the distance?
Really? Berwickshire is likely, but I'd be struggling to find five gains in Scotland. Also, Mundell is on a tiny majority in Dumfries, so a possible loss there.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
I think you are dreaming there elected dictator will happen.Just as some described Harold Wilson in 1966 However his hundred majority and his popularity did not last long.When you hear a politician like May do a complete lie and say it's for the good of the country you know it's total bollox .Only weeks ago said we needed time to bring the country together.Not further referendums and snap elections.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.
No. It could, conceivably, be the language of the demagogue, but that's not the same thing. And the country will make up its own mind.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure by him and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
Any news from Ed? Surely there is a safe seat somewhere with someone who fancies a few quiet years in House of Lords?
Safe seat for Labour with Corbyn leading the party....
I'm seriously struggling to think of one...
Sounds like Hull West is now available. Fairly local for Ed
When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?
No.
Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" !
Arguably the second GE later that year was also 'snap', as Wilson sought to move from hung parliament to majority territory. He managed it - by 3 seats. Both main parties lost vote share though, to the Liberals....
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
Erm...she's proposing a GE. NO new powers. No dictatorship. She could lose. She could lose her own seat. Unlikely - but she's offering a free choice. It's not exactly the Enabling Act. You seem to be confused. And it's certainly true that a pre-Brexit parliament in a post-Brexit world is a mess. We need a clearing of the air.
It's her rhetoric that's telling in the context of Josias' comment. I am not keen on elected dictatorships of any stripe, but Theresa May's imminent one is not the only one we have had in recent years and I wouldn't expect a politician to voluntarily limit their own powers. George Washingtons are unusual.
The Tories are a 45pts party again, thanks to some of the UKIP vote going back but also because May has connected to an extraordinary extent with voters, including former Labour voters. She is, according to the latest YouGov poll almost as popular with poorer voters as she is with the affluent. Authenticity, experience and style is at the root of it and she connects in the north of England. She’s a reluctant Remainer now determined to get on with it. A lot of voters agree. Outside London this is electoral gold dust for the Tories.
I wonder if the Blairite and Brownite 'big beasts' in the Labour party will down tools during the campaign?
It can be argued it's in their interests to see Corbyn and the old-fashioned socialist left destroyed.
If Corbyn gets mullered a Labour centrist leader - even facing a big Tory majority, and given the extraordinary backdrop of Brexit - could be well placed to possibly be PM in 2022.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
Erm...she's proposing a GE. NO new powers. No dictatorship. She could lose. She could lose her own seat. Unlikely - but she's offering a free choice. It's not exactly the Enabling Act. You seem to be confused. And it's certainly true that a pre-Brexit parliament in a post-Brexit world is a mess. We need a clearing of the air.
It's her rhetoric that's telling in the context of Josias' comment. I am not keen on elected dictatorships of any stripe, but Theresa May's imminent one is not the only one we have had in recent years and I wouldn't expect a politician to voluntarily limit their own powers. George Washingtons are unusual.
And precisely what powers that other PMs haven't had is May proposing for herself?
1979 was a 'crisis' election in that it followed a no confidence vote but it probably only took place a few months before a GE - by convention - would have been called anyway (the previous one being in October 1974).
Carswell is f*cked, all his machinations and scheming and he is cut off at the bo**cks!
He can't win Clacton as an Independent or Conservative without UKIP voters.
Delicious revenge, he will now have to get a proper job in 6 weeks time..
You are showing a vast amount of ignorance. If you knew anything about UKIP voters you would know that a large number of them are making the same journey as Carswell and even those who might stay with the party long term, are talking about voting Tory to ensure Labour and the Lib Dems don't get to derail Brexit. If Carswell stood as a Tory (a big if) he would definitely win Clacton.
I see the BBC line is there is voter fatigue......Given most people won't even really processed that there is a GE / when it is, that is quite a claim.
I think Con Maj 70-90. Betting is a mug's game (especially with my record of calling things wrong), so I won't put any money on it, but I'd be interested to see how I feel in seven weeks when I am back from the United States.
In contrast to Richmond Park, I think he'll regain his seat quite comfortably.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
Erm...she's proposing a GE. NO new powers. No dictatorship. She could lose. She could lose her own seat. Unlikely - but she's offering a free choice. It's not exactly the Enabling Act. You seem to be confused. And it's certainly true that a pre-Brexit parliament in a post-Brexit world is a mess. We need a clearing of the air.
It's her rhetoric that's telling in the context of Josias' comment. I am not keen on elected dictatorships of any stripe, but Theresa May's imminent one is not the only one we have had in recent years and I wouldn't expect a politician to voluntarily limit their own powers. George Washingtons are unusual.
And precisely what powers that other PMs haven't had is May proposing for herself?
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
Erm...she's proposing a GE. NO new powers. No dictatorship. She could lose. She could lose her own seat. Unlikely - but she's offering a free choice. It's not exactly the Enabling Act. You seem to be confused. And it's certainly true that a pre-Brexit parliament in a post-Brexit world is a mess. We need a clearing of the air.
It's her rhetoric that's telling in the context of Josias' comment. I am not keen on elected dictatorships of any stripe, but Theresa May's imminent one is not the only one we have had in recent years and I wouldn't expect a politician to voluntarily limit their own powers. George Washingtons are unusual.
And precisely what powers that other PMs haven't had is May proposing for herself?
They've all gone mad. It's amazing that even the likes of Meeks, SO and TSE are saying this is a good decision but the most persistent doom mongers have gone completely insane. This election secures Brexit, and most probably a much softer Brexit than would have happened before today now that the PM won't be beholden to the Tory right.
A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.
A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.
In contrast to Richmond Park, I think he'll regain his seat quite comfortably.
One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.
They might not turn up at all. UKIP engaged a lot of first time voters and long time non-voters.
I wonder if the Blairite and Brownite 'big beasts' in the Labour party will down tools during the campaign?
It can be argued it's in their interests to see Corbyn and the old-fashioned socialist left destroyed.
If Corbyn gets mullered a Labour centrist leader - even facing a big Tory majority, and given the extraordinary backdrop of Brexit - could be well placed to possibly be PM in 2022.
What happened under Foot in 1983 was that the moderates mostly stayed loyal or quiet, but as the campaign went on and Labour's poll rating continued to flatline, a number of them cracked under media pressure and started to speak out during the campaign. Which of course made things worse.
Will be interesting to see if history repeats. Thirty years on the media pressure is more relentless and invisibility much more difficult.
Kate McCannVERIFIED ACCOUNT @KateEMcCann 4 mins4 minutes ago
Labour source tells me veteran MP Alan Johnson won't be standing in the June general election
Shame, I wonder if the postie has done enough to be shuffled over to the red seats?
Yes. Most ex-cabinet ministers will be offered a peerage. The only exceptions tend to be those who've disgraced themselves and those with only fleeting service. Neither objection is valid in Johnson's case.
A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.
Well, it's a theory.
For which party?
SW - Liberals London - Libs and Labour
UKIP will revive and stop Remain Tories winning in some SE seats.
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.
Well, it's a theory.
For which party?
SW - Liberals London - Libs and Labour
UKIP will revive and stop Remain Tories winning in some SE seats.
Seems a little bit fanciful. I think the Remainers need to get used to the idea of Brexit sooner rather than later. Before today there was a 1% chance it would get blown off course, today it's 0.0001%.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
Lowest drop in the LD vote in the country, I believe.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
Lowest drop in the LD vote in the country, I believe.
Got some serious tactical voting going on in her favour.
The Guardian's reaction seems to be BUT IT'S SO UNFAIR, WON'T ANYONE THINK OF THE LABOUR MPs??!!
Heh.
Polly could have had a good export business going with her patented clothes-pegs. A lot of French voters will need some for the second round, and Labour canvassers could hand them out here.
The Guardian's reaction seems to be BUT IT'S SO UNFAIR, WON'T ANYONE THINK OF THE LABOUR MPs??!!
Heh.
You have to feel for the Guardianistas.....7 years of hurt....every major election bar Khan getting elected going against them, from GE, to Boris, to AV, to Brexit, to Corbyn...
Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
If Jo Swinson got back in, she would be red hot favourite for next leader. Steve Webb has said he wouldn't stand again and a new candidate has been selected for his South Gloucs seat.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
I don't see why not. Con consistently polling around mid-20s in Scotland. Could see the Borders go blue and longer shots in Edinburgh and the NE.
On the other hand, Lab could end with zero seats in Scotland for the first time since 1900.
Dumfries & Galloway, Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, possibly a seat in Edinburgh...starts to get tricky after that and none of these are sure things.
Steve Webb and Jo Swinson must be sorely tempted to have another bash at their former seats too.
I was mocked on here for saying Jo Swinson had a good chance of surviving the LD Apocalypse and while I was wrong a loss by only 2000 votes was pretty good going.
If Jo Swinson got back in, she would be red hot favourite for next leader.
Jon Nicholson seems like one of the better and more affable SNP MPs though, so I think he'd have some incumbency advantage. Michelle Thomson may well be more vulnerable given her various screw ups post election, and Edinburgh is surely fertile ground for the yellow peril.
In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.
Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.
The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.
Comments
Diane adds "Pollsters have failed to adjust for the Corbyn factor"
You mean it's even worse?
I'm seriously struggling to think of one...
I'm thinking Tories by 60-80.
Increased his vote share from 2015, and surely rump Labour will fall for him this time.
But wasn't 1979 a crisis election, as it was precipitated by a vote of No Confidence?
https://reaction.life/early-election-theresa-maybe-brilliant/
It can be argued it's in their interests to see Corbyn and the old-fashioned socialist left destroyed.
If Corbyn gets mullered a Labour centrist leader - even facing a big Tory majority, and given the extraordinary backdrop of Brexit - could be well placed to possibly be PM in 2022.
Also the Brexit vote had a huge turn-out.
https://twitter.com/JamieMcGrigor/status/854326301452374016
On the other hand, Lab could end with zero seats in Scotland for the first time since 1900.
Well, it's a theory.
Lib Dems on 81%.
Will be interesting to see if history repeats. Thirty years on the media pressure is more relentless and invisibility much more difficult.
London - Libs and Labour
UKIP will revive and stop Remain Tories winning in some SE seats.
St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".
Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.
SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.
Con maj 80-90 I reckon
If Clarke stands down and Skinner doesn't win, who's father of the house?
And UKIP to do better than last time?
Seems a little bit fanciful. I think the Remainers need to get used to the idea of Brexit sooner rather than later. Before today there was a 1% chance it would get blown off course, today it's 0.0001%.
15:01, Lib Dem email arrived at 13:00, 2 hours earlier.
https://twitter.com/northumbriana/status/854323092289712130