Corbyn doesn't care about winning, it's all about the movement and his view getting Labour back to where he thinks it belongs.
Union barons surely will oust him after the GE, but unless they get back to being a center/center left party again they won't win another election. Need a sneaky, very crafty, highly intelligent, charismatic potential leader to re-brand Blairism in another name (without people noticing) and take the party along with him/her. The electorate will vote for it.
Corbyn goes and gets replaced with someone from the same brand of Labour it won't make no difference.
It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.
It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
I think what changed was that Mrs May decided it was a risk worth taking, not that the fundamentals had changed. I do genuinely think she changed her mind rather just biding her time.
I think she has realised just how tough the Brexit deal is: (a) going to be to do; (2) to sell to the swivel-eyed right. She has to have her own mandate.
Yes. As I said, you should be genuinely cheered by this. TMay is saving Labour. A crushing defeat of Corbyn will mean the end of the Hard Left for a generation. Meanwhile, TMay will have space to engineer the softish Brexit she clearly wants, and a much stronger mandate overall - both Brexity and otherwise.
The country will regain a proper, much-needed Opposition. The SNP will lose a few seats.
And FFS get Ed Balls in to the Commons, and make him your leader. You could win in 2022.
Today is a good day for UK politics. And fun for us geeks, too.
Hopefully not only will Corbyn get stuffed and go, but hopefully Labour will be able to squish the Maomentum nutters before they get embedded within the powerbase of Labour and means that they don't become the party of Corbynistas for the foreseeable future.
The concern is that Corbyn is simply replaced by McMao or Clive Lewis.
When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?
Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
The horror story for Labour is them taking a horror-show battering in a couple of weeks - only to have Corbyn pop up and do it all over again to them in June. "What part of Fuck Off Corbyn don't you get?" say the voters...
So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.
Good news for the Lib Dems down west.
According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.
A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....
Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
The nationally posted locally received direct mail was probably more effective. I have lost track of where that issue sits in the investigations.
When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?
Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
The horror story for Labour is them taking a horror-show battering in a couple of weeks - only to have Corbyn pop up and do it all over again to them in June. "What part of Fuck Off Corbyn don't you get?" say the voters...
Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.
Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
Will Jeremy Corbyn think that anything as incidental as an election defeat is a ground for resignation?
So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.
Good news for the Lib Dems down west.
According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.
A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....
Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
The nationally posted locally received direct mail was probably more effective. I have lost track of where that issue sits in the investigations.
Was it not claimed by Crosby and Co that the targeted Facebook ads were also hugely effective.
So everyone, what will be the gaffe of the campaign?
May walking out of No. 10 with her skirt hitched up at the back? Corbyn having a policy of bringing Venezuela's success to the UK? Farron deciding the Lib Dems are for Brexit? Nicola deciding to take Malc on as chief spokesman?
It'll be hard to beat the Ed Stone from two years ago ...
A general election works for everyone. A fat Tory majority allows May to dismiss her nutters and not be press ganged into hard Brexit. And it removes that wazzock Jezbollah from LOTO so that we actually have someone holding her feet to the fire as it is negotiated.
Labour's impending demolition removes all the agony of arguing over Entryists and Momentum, and delegates to conference to fight the McDonnell amentment, and whether its permissible to talk to Tory deviants like Labour, LibDem, SNP etc MPs about a progressive alliance.
Instead he goes, the cretins surrounding him goes, we elect a unity candidate like Ed Balls or Kier Starmer and 200k useless bedblockers go, and we get back to being a political party again. Yes the penalty is that the Tories will have fat majority to wreck lives with but thanks to Jez they can do that anyway.
Q - if you are Burham or Rotheram, looking at the local mayoral polling, do you seek reelection to Westminster just in case, the Lieberman gambit?
So everyone, what will be the gaffe of the campaign?
May walking out of No. 10 with her skirt hitched up at the back? Corbyn having a policy of bringing Venezuela's success to the UK? Farron deciding the Lib Dems are for Brexit? Nicola deciding to take Malc on as chief spokesman?
It'll be hard to beat the Ed Stone from two years ago ...
It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...
I would have thought they'd want to use the momentum (if you'll pardon the phrase) of a crushing loss to mount a probably unbeatable challenge as soon as possible, if Corbyn doesn't step down voluntarily. Perversely, though, that might mean they wind up with a weaker successor than might otherwise be the case. Another Owen Smith might well be terminal for a Labour Party on ~150 seats.
BIB: Well, exactly. The idea that after getting decimated, there won't be an immediate challenge to Corbyn's leadership seems to me a rather odd conclusion.
Balls.
Not a rude comment, just a possible answer. Desperate times ... desperate measures?
I don't entirely trust him but do I trust a vicar's daughter who turns out after 9 months to be as devious as her predecessor?
Balls isn't even an MP so I don't see how he can stand for the leadership. I also don't see him wanting to stand in this GE.
On the boundary review, it doesn't look like this will be interrupted. The law says:
The four boundary commissions of the United Kingdom are to conduct constituency reviews before 1 October 2013 and before 1 October of every subsequent fifth year.
There wouldn't be time to start the whole process again.
A general election works for everyone. A fat Tory majority allows May to dismiss her nutters and not be press ganged into hard Brexit. And it removes that wazzock Jezbollah from LOTO so that we actually have someone holding her feet to the fire as it is negotiated.
Labour's impending demolition removes all the agony of arguing over Entryists and Momentum, and delegates to conference to fight the McDonnell amentment, and whether its permissible to talk to Tory deviants like Labour, LibDem, SNP etc MPs about a progressive alliance.
Instead he goes, the cretins surrounding him goes, we elect a unity candidate like Ed Balls or Kier Starmer and 200k useless bedblockers go, and we get back to being a political party again. Yes the penalty is that the Tories will have fat majority to wreck lives with but thanks to Jez they can do that anyway.
Q - if you are Burham or Rotheram, looking at the local mayoral polling, do you seek reelection to Westminster just in case, the Lieberman gambit?
A rare moment of PB unity! We are all happy! (apart from williamglenn, obv)
I bet even Timmykins is popping an expensive bottle of plonk !!!
I am going to claim predictive insight. I can't find the exact comment, but I definitely claimed back in October called out the end March timing of A50 was very suspicious.
If politician says that they are definitely not going to do something, you can discount it utterly. I cite Gove.
If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.
Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
You came back early ? Fitalass was doing a fine job in your absence.
Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.
Yes I think that is right.
I've felt for some time that the political landscape is too different from 2015 for that mandate to be effective, so good for the country I think.
What is May's platform other than more power for herself? It will be a Brexit election and she will have to effectively refight the referendum campaign as a Brexiteer.
Here's your chance to stop Brexit. Work hard every night, and who knows, the Lib Dems might win the election?
If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
100,000 Tory entryists paying their £35 or whatever it is next time could keep Jezza in post.
If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
100,000 Tory entryists paying their £35 or whatever it is next time could keep Jezza in post.
I don't see that happening (re as many as 100,000 Tories voting in Labour's leadership). It wasn't even Tory entryists which kept Corbyn in his post the last two times - it was his supporters who genuinely think he's Britain's Bernie Sanders (which he is not).
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.
Do you think he could dance his way into No.10 ?
Sorry. Briefly off message. Clearly the opportunity will not arise because Jeremy Corbyn will be Prime Minister on June 10. But I welcome Balls back in the Commons.
What's going to happen in Rochdale? Simon Danczuk is suspended.
Also what about those two? whipless SNP MPs?
Doubt the SNP will allow either to stand, tbh. Edin West is a potential loss to the Lib Dems, so too risky to allow Michelle Thomson back.
Can't see the Rochdale Labour SLP welcoming Danczuk either, if the Lib Dems are going to come back anywhere, its in seats like this. What's Paul Rowen doing these days?
It will be a strange election. We already know the result, its what happens afterwards that is the interesting bit.
I've lost most of today work wise as its all been election speculation then gibber then planning. As I posted in the last thread wheels are already turning about immediate next steps (such as a CLP leaflet I've started sketching out with a colleague), I can see how we select a candidate, get the troops gathered, pull of our generally excellent canvas data and get out knocking on doors.
Thats where the plan stops. "Vote Labour on 8th June. Put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. In these uncertain times of Brexit and war drums in Korea and economic uncertainty for so many, the man you really want leading this nation through it all is Jeremy Corbyn".
Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
Ed Balls has had a similar journey to several prominent politicians once they lose (another example being Portillo). They're widely derided and laughed at as politicians, but once out of office go on to being, if not loved, liked.
It's almost as though the public get to see that they're (relatively) normal people.
Having said that, if Balls went back into politics the public's feelings would soon swing back the other way.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Agreed! We've done Milliband. An opposition led by Balls could be formidable.
He's smart. He's proved he's likeable. He would indeed by a formidable leader. Does Labour have the wits to persuade him into a seat, and into the job?
Will their stupid membership see sense?
He was likeable on a dancing show....He was very unpopular doing his day job. Christine Hamilton was popular on reality tv shows....
If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
You can bet that CCHQ have a thick dossier full of his screw ups at the DPP ready to throw at him if and when that happens.
Well, well, we seem to have had a shock to the PB system - nobody seems to have seen this one coming. I thought TSE's head might explode; after all he has been bangibng on for months about Mrs. May not having her own mandate and here she is asking for one. No matter.
I note nobody is yet raising the question as to whether the Conservatives will be returned with an increased majority. Isn't that rather a key point? Someone, and I am sorry I can't remember who, posted on here yesterday that it would take a swing to Labour of less than 1% from 2015 to wipe out the Conservative majority.
Will the Conservatives actually win? Herself, when I broke the news of the election to her earlier today, thought for a moment and then said, "Good, she is right to do it" and Herself has called every election correctly since 1983. However, she may not be infallible, there is a campaign ahead and things might change.
Faites vos jeux, mesdames et Messieurs, faites vos jeux.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.
Well, well, we seem to have had a shock to the PB system - nobody seems to have seen this one coming. I thought TSE's head might explode; after all he has been bangibng on for months about Mrs. May not having her own mandate and here she is asking for one. No matter.
I note nobody is yet raising the question as to whether the Conservatives will be returned with an increased majority. Isn't that rather a key point? Someone, and I am sorry I can't remember who, posted on here yesterday that it would take a swing to Labour of less than 1% from 2015 to wipe out the Conservative majority.
Will the Conservatives actually win? Herself, when I broke the news of the election to her earlier today, thought for a moment and then said, "Good, she is right to do it" and Herself has called every election correctly since 1983. However, she may not be infallible, there is a campaign ahead and things might change.
Faites vos jeux, mesdames et Messieurs, faites vos jeux.
I called this in October. ;-) Ironically Corbyn must also have wind of it. The policy stuff on reflection is very well timed.
Comments
Yellow bird on profile
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854315540566990853
Union barons surely will oust him after the GE, but unless they get back to being a center/center left party again they won't win another election. Need a sneaky, very crafty, highly intelligent, charismatic potential leader to re-brand Blairism in another name (without people noticing) and take the party along with him/her. The electorate will vote for it.
Corbyn goes and gets replaced with someone from the same brand of Labour it won't make no difference.
Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
The concern is that Corbyn is simply replaced by McMao or Clive Lewis.
If he doesn't go he will literally destroy the Labour party.
A mandate from the voters...
Tories 52%
Losers 48%
Big question - will Sunil stick with Labour this year?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/even-crushing-election-defeat-might-not-spell-end-jeremy-corbyn/
Also what about those two? whipless SNP MPs?
May walking out of No. 10 with her skirt hitched up at the back? Corbyn having a policy of bringing Venezuela's success to the UK? Farron deciding the Lib Dems are for Brexit? Nicola deciding to take Malc on as chief spokesman?
It'll be hard to beat the Ed Stone from two years ago ...
Labour's impending demolition removes all the agony of arguing over Entryists and Momentum, and delegates to conference to fight the McDonnell amentment, and whether its permissible to talk to Tory deviants like Labour, LibDem, SNP etc MPs about a progressive alliance.
Instead he goes, the cretins surrounding him goes, we elect a unity candidate like Ed Balls or Kier Starmer and 200k useless bedblockers go, and we get back to being a political party again. Yes the penalty is that the Tories will have fat majority to wreck lives with but thanks to Jez they can do that anyway.
Q - if you are Burham or Rotheram, looking at the local mayoral polling, do you seek reelection to Westminster just in case, the Lieberman gambit?
Looking ahead and on the bright side.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Except there's a provision to review the FTPA before then.
It depends on tomorrows vote
The four boundary commissions of the United Kingdom are to conduct constituency reviews before 1 October 2013 and before 1 October of every subsequent fifth year.
There wouldn't be time to start the whole process again.
If politician says that they are definitely not going to do something, you can discount it utterly. I cite Gove.
There I said it and I'm proud to say it.
https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621
Do you think he could dance his way into No.10 ?
Good luck with that.
We need you airborne on June 8th.
UKIP bankrupt
Conservatives poor but will have no problem raising the necessary finances to fight a strong campaign
Wikipedia says by-elections have been cancelled in similar circumstances before, but not since 1924 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Countermanded_Poll
Can't see the Rochdale Labour SLP welcoming Danczuk either, if the Lib Dems are going to come back anywhere, its in seats like this. What's Paul Rowen doing these days?
Yeah, Sturgeon would go down a treat in Maidenhead wouldn't she?
Twit.
So much for the FTPA
I've lost most of today work wise as its all been election speculation then gibber then planning. As I posted in the last thread wheels are already turning about immediate next steps (such as a CLP leaflet I've started sketching out with a colleague), I can see how we select a candidate, get the troops gathered, pull of our generally excellent canvas data and get out knocking on doors.
Thats where the plan stops. "Vote Labour on 8th June. Put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. In these uncertain times of Brexit and war drums in Korea and economic uncertainty for so many, the man you really want leading this nation through it all is Jeremy Corbyn".
Nope, can't even type it without giggling.
It's almost as though the public get to see that they're (relatively) normal people.
Having said that, if Balls went back into politics the public's feelings would soon swing back the other way.
He thinks it is hard for Tories to get a big maj ?
I'd have thought the opposite.
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
More closer to Thatcher in 1987 which was 101
I note nobody is yet raising the question as to whether the Conservatives will be returned with an increased majority. Isn't that rather a key point? Someone, and I am sorry I can't remember who, posted on here yesterday that it would take a swing to Labour of less than 1% from 2015 to wipe out the Conservative majority.
Will the Conservatives actually win? Herself, when I broke the news of the election to her earlier today, thought for a moment and then said, "Good, she is right to do it" and Herself has called every election correctly since 1983. However, she may not be infallible, there is a campaign ahead and things might change.
Faites vos jeux, mesdames et Messieurs, faites vos jeux.
Halifax
Newcastle (Under Lyne)
Ilford North
Barrow
Wirral West
Wolve SW
Dewsbury
Enfield North
Hapmstead
Derbyshire NE
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Bridgend
Middlesborugh South Cleveland East
Wakefield
Wrexham
Brum Northfield
Eltham
Gedling
Copeland
Clwyd South
Coventry Couth
Southampton Test
Delyn
Darlington
Blackpool South
Scunthorpe
Bishop Auckland
Chorley
Starter for 30.
Ironically Corbyn must also have wind of it. The policy stuff on reflection is very well timed.