John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.
Not just on this issue specifically, but we now have cast-iron proof that her word cannot be trusted and she'll change her mind on a whim just for tactical advantage.
Obviously Corbyn's Labour would get thrashed - but WHAT IF Labour get a new leader within days? Against May who's potentially just torpedoed her own USP of "serious stateswoman putting country ahead of party games".
I'm expecting that UNS will be of limited assistance. I can imagine the Conservatives taking Bassetlaw but failing to take Tooting.
Equally, it's conceivable Labour could pick up one or two ultra-Remain metropolitan Tory seats (Cardiff North? Bristol North West?) while losing ultra-safe seats in the North East (in a neat bit of symmetry, I think Durham NW which May contested in 1992 could potentially go blue this time with Corbyn).
When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?
Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
On TV he came across as a man relieved, more than anything else. He clearly doesn't like the job that much, and this early election will give him an excuse to retire with "honour".
He fought the good fight, and he failed. That's emotionally different to being kicked out by the bastards in your own party.
He never expected to have the job in the first place. That's one reason why I'd like to hear opinions on his route from here to No. 10 and becoming PM.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.
Not just on this issue specifically, but we now have cast-iron proof that her word cannot be trusted and she'll change her mind on a whim just for tactical advantage.
Um... changing your mind on a whim is pretty much the essence of tactics, isn't it?
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
I'm expecting that UNS will be of limited assistance. I can imagine the Conservatives taking Bassetlaw but failing to take Tooting.
Equally, it's conceivable Labour could pick up one or two ultra-Remain metropolitan Tory seats (Cardiff North? Bristol North West?) while losing ultra-safe seats in the North East (in a neat bit of symmetry, I think Durham NW which May contested in 1992 could potentially go blue this time with Corbyn).
I am very doubtful that Labour is going to be gaining any seats this time, though I understand your logic. I can't see angry Remainers trooping out to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. Why would they?
The Conservatives are going to go through Labour seats outside London and the metropolitan north west like a combine harvester.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
I predict she will get a majority between 60 and 100. Not an overwhelming landslide, but pretty damn emphatic.
Labour's problem is not this election, that's past praying for. Their problem is that they are at serious risk of being in a position where they could gain 100 seats in 2022 and still not even be the largest party. Doesn't encourage what talent there is to hang around (or come back).
Why am I praying [ as an aethist does ] that Labour gets smashed enough so that the Moron and his gang are done for good ?
Simples - because it is the only way to rid Labour of Corbyn and his army of far left loons. Only then can Labour move on and become a viable opposition party once more.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
First this: Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I’m still a bit in shock.."
Then later in the same article: In private, a number of senior Labour MPs said they were very worried. One MP said she was in complete shock and felt sick thinking of colleagues at risk of losing their seats in the Midlands.
Clearly Ms Phillips wanted the second bit, predicting imminent local losses for her party, to be 'off the record'. But with the Guardian's "she", reference to the Midlands, and repeat of the word "shock" I don't think we need to trouble Sherlock Holmes with this one....
Some of us have been saying for a while that May would go for it. The bet was that Corbyn would have to agree. Ed Balls is well placed---clever, likeable, untarred, and, hopefully, freshly energised and no longer hors de combat, a fitter wiser fellow.
I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.
It would be nice after this one not to be having more regular GE's than Belgium.....
Yeah, after this I'll be done with politics, for a while. No more referendums or elex til the early 2020s, ta v much.
Don't know about you, but as also a self employed person, all this is terrible for my output...good job you got your latest book out of the way just in time.
Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
Well that didn't work in 2015...
It didn't work out because MPs such as Beckett were stupid enough to lend their votes to nominating Corbyn in order to have a 'wide political debate/represent all views.' That's unlikely to happen again.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
Blair fought 1997 from opposition, not from government, and even quite late on they were paranoid they could lose.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
There's no "same way" about it.
In 1997 Labour was trying to oust a government and no-one expected a landslide of such proportions, and after so long a spell of Tory power no-one was going to risk preventing it by listening to such an argument.
This time the dynamic is completely different. The whole purpose of the election is for the sitting government to win a larger majority, and we all know why she wants it. The LibDems will play the "only we can stop a Tory majority" card for all it's worth...
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
Hm.. May did say something along the lines of calling an early general election for a safe and secure society....
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
I'll think they'll get more than that but I have already said I don't see the landslide. My guess at the moment would be that they will take 50-60 from Labour, maybe 3-4 from the SNP and lose maybe a dozen to the Lib Dems. That would add about 80 to their existing majority but leave them short of the 100.
Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.
The dislike of Corbyn will be greater than the 'desire' for the lib dems.
How's their mansion tax policy these days?
It's not ony that. Zac wasn't standing as a Conservative, he'd made himself unpopular because of what was seen as a silly gimmick of a by-election and also his inept mayoral campaign, and in any case by-elections are generally easier for oppostion parties (especailly the LibDems) than GEs. So the starting base of a 4.5% LibDem majority is probably not enough for them to hold the seat IMO.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
Again being charitable and assuming she has simply changed her mind, she still has not explained the change satisfactorily, and all those 'she gives her word and sticks to it' people look like fools, for thinking she was not, well, a politician.
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con lose 15 to LD Con gain 60 from Lab Con gain 5 from SNP
Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.
Nonsense, LibDem larger majority, nailed on.
By-election winners almost always go on to hold at least once, especially if the by-election wasn't too long before the next General. Reckless was one of relatively few exceptions.
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con lose 15 to LD Con gain 60 from Lab Con gain 5 from SNP
Result: Con maj circa 100.
Is that the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon I hear in the distance?
Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.
Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?
He is not a member , maybe ?
That could be rectified in a matter of seconds.
Oh, I see. You have no procedures. Will everyone at Clacton Tory Association just accept it ?
I was answering the point about his not being a member.
My understanding is that candidates will be appointed to constituencies. I don't know the score in Clacton but Carswell always struck me as quite personally popular there. If there wasn't anyone already lined up then why not?
First this: Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I’m still a bit in shock.."
Then later in the same article: In private, a number of senior Labour MPs said they were very worried. One MP said she was in complete shock and felt sick thinking of colleagues at risk of losing their seats in the Midlands.
Clearly Ms Phillips wanted the second bit, predicting imminent local losses for her party, to be 'off the record'. But with the Guardian's "she", reference to the Midlands, and repeat of the word "shock" I don't think we need to trouble Sherlock Holmes with this one....
She herself isn't example safe having won Yardley from the LDs last time around. That said with 60% voting leave it could be one place where the LD's EU stance harms them.
Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.
This is true. It also gives everyone a lot more time for extensions and can kicks, which is the most plausible way to minimize the car crash.
She herself isn't example safe having won Yardley from the LDs last time around. That said with 60% voting leave it could be one place where the LD's EU stance harms them.
It depends how much correlation there is between the 40% of remain voters and Lib Dem GE voters in that seat. If they overlap, then even in a seat like that it will help them.
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure for Corbyn and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
She is a lying b**ch.
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.
"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure by him and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
Any news from Ed? Surely there is a safe seat somewhere with someone who fancies a few quiet years in House of Lords?
Comments
You are just as bad as the resident LD misery/.
Labour have been getting Short money.
IMF: UK economy 'stronger than expected'
I really hope it doesn't happen but .....
I would even be prepared to watch Diane Abbott rake in even more money in TW.
I can really see Cambridge going back to the Lib Dems; then again, I got that one wrong in 2015 as well ...
For all the good it did them.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!
The Conservatives are going to go through Labour seats outside London and the metropolitan north west like a combine harvester.
Only then can Labour move on and become a viable opposition party once more.
Regardless of what she says in the campaign, she can go back on her word.
Live with it. Labour will get thumped whatever you say on PB.
First this: Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I’m still a bit in shock.."
Then later in the same article: In private, a number of senior Labour MPs said they were very worried. One MP said she was in complete shock and felt sick thinking of colleagues at risk of losing their seats in the Midlands.
Clearly Ms Phillips wanted the second bit, predicting imminent local losses for her party, to be 'off the record'. But with the Guardian's "she", reference to the Midlands, and repeat of the word "shock" I don't think we need to trouble Sherlock Holmes with this one....
The bet was that Corbyn would have to agree.
Ed Balls is well placed---clever, likeable, untarred, and, hopefully, freshly energised and no longer hors de combat, a fitter wiser fellow.
- Not EU.
- Not you.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/might-balls-be-labours-answer-at-1001/
Is there any precedent more recent than 1924 for cancelling a by-election? Who, if anyone, has legal authority to make that decision?
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
How's their mansion tax policy these days?
In 1997 Labour was trying to oust a government and no-one expected a landslide of such proportions, and after so long a spell of Tory power no-one was going to risk preventing it by listening to such an argument.
This time the dynamic is completely different. The whole purpose of the election is for the sitting government to win a larger majority, and we all know why she wants it. The LibDems will play the "only we can stop a Tory majority" card for all it's worth...
https://twitter.com/Jim_Watford/status/854312839426842624
https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/853592059193827328
Tim Farron: Lib Dems would go back into coalition with Tories
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/23/tim-farron-lib-dems-coalition-tories-clegg
Tim Farron must hope voters have short memories.
I note that a non-supporter thinks it's a better than 10% chance, though (ok 9%, before the pedants hyperventilate).
Con gain 60 from Lab
Con gain 5 from SNP
Result: Con maj circa 100.
By-election winners almost always go on to hold at least once, especially if the by-election wasn't too long before the next General. Reckless was one of relatively few exceptions.
10-19 @ 5/2 along with
20-29 @ 3/1
with Shadsy seems like a good idea?
My understanding is that candidates will be appointed to constituencies. I don't know the score in Clacton but Carswell always struck me as quite personally popular there. If there wasn't anyone already lined up then why not?
BRS is an almost certain gain but it was 58% Remain and a huge Liberal traditional which may stop what I had pegged as an inevitable flip to Con.
Labour source tells me veteran MP Alan Johnson won't be standing in the June general election
2 replies 14 retweets 4 likes
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure for Corbyn and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
Actually, a lot of Labour MP will probably be wishing he does.
Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" !