politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

That's a big call.

As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.

However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTDWd9-zqzc

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/lbcbreaking/status/854320433499439108

In contrast to Richmond Park, I think he'll regain his seat quite comfortably.

Is he not 74? Surely he has better things to do.

Pah, he's got 10 years left, just ask Skinner.

If Clarke stands down and Skinner doesn't win, who's father of the house?

Peter Bottomley

Inexplicably, I managed to back Tories most seats at 1.12 and Theresa May as PM after the next election at 1.15, at midday today.

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MarkHopkins said:

https://twitter.com/lbcbreaking/status/854320433499439108

In contrast to Richmond Park, I think he'll regain his seat quite comfortably.

Is he not 74? Surely he has better things to do.

Pah, he's got 10 years left, just ask Skinner.

If Clarke stands down and Skinner doesn't win, who's father of the house?

Arise Sir Peter Bottomley IIRC

Or Sir Talbot Buxomley

KentRising said:

GIN1138 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?

No.

Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" !

Arguably the second GE later that year was also 'snap', as Wilson sought to move from hung parliament to majority territory. He managed it - by 3 seats. Both main parties lost vote share though, to the Liberals....

I thought that despite their "One More Heave" election slogan that October, Feb was actually better for the Liberals?

That was the year that got me first interested in politics.

Have Sky News got the countdown clock running yet ?

Birmingham local press reporting that Gisela Stuart and Richard Burden are thought not to stand again.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-conservatives-could-take-12908799

So 2 Tory gains in sight

dr_spyn said:

Is Gorton By-election off - contractory tweets coming from MEN.

There must be a standoff between the "writ has been moved, can't be unmoved" lawyers and the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" lawyers?

SeanT said:

justin124 said:

SeanT said:

I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.

But a 7 week campaign is hardly a short campaign - indeed it is more than twice the length of both 1974 elections.

By today's standards it's incredibly short, because normally we see the election coming many months beforehand, so the campaigning starts early (long before the "official" campaign).

The GE of May 2015 essentially began on Jan 1st, 2015 - five LOOOONG months of electioneering.

This is just seven weeks. Short. Sharp. Shiny. Yay.

2010 was very similar, as well.

This is also (somewhat obviously, I think) compared to any of our near neighbours - US one lasts for what seems like *years*.

murali_s said:

dr_spyn said:

Labour's Leader attacks PM for early GE.

https://twitter.com/northumbriana/status/854323092289712130

Henderson has nailed it 100%!

Last election someone crossed out a Labour chap's name in my area and wrote 'nye Bevin' before ticking the box - you could do the same with Henderson.

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Vince Cable to stand - be interesting if the conservatives in Broxtowe let Anna Soubry stand as a conservative, also Nicky Morgan in Loughborough

Both are personally popular in the constituencies. I've noted that the more heated opinions about them appear to be inversely related to the proximity to the constituencies.

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

This is no election for staying at home, Joff. The LibDems would be privileged to have your support.

Within minutes of the announcement I had an email from a local Labour voter offering to deliver leaflets for us 'just this time' to send Labour a message about Brexit and Corbyn. You'll be in good company.

justin124 said:

But Corbyn is pathetically stupid - or senile - not to seek to block it. What would he have to lose - given the state of the polls - from forcing May to rely on the No Confidence route? As well as humiliating May he might even have become PM in the constitutional chaos which followed. It really does not make sense at all.

Of course he makes sense - he's a political dipshit.

Vote Labour! JC4PM

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

If the LDs lose a seat I think it might be Southport. There was a big UKIP vote there last time which might transfer to the Tories.

The UKIP vote collapsed in Southport last May and went to the Lib Dems who won all 7 wards in the parliamentary seat easily

i doubt the UKIP vote went to the LDs. What was the turnout?

We know that all LDs always vote, come rain or shine, in all elections. it's in their DNA. Surely ex-Kippers stayed home, couldn't be bothered, and the fervent LD voters all trooped down to the church hall as ever.

In a general the turnout will be up, but given all LDs voted in the locals anyway, their absolute vote can't go up...Kippers will come and vote blue

Having said that it feels unlikely that any of the 2015 LD wins will go to anyone else. core of the core.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

That's a big call.

As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.

However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.

I'm looking at about 365 to 380 for the Conservatives.

Good afternoon, everyone.

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

dr_spyn said:

Is Gorton By-election off - contractory tweets coming from MEN.

There must be a standoff between the "writ has been moved, can't be unmoved" lawyers and the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" lawyers?

From wiki:

If the polling day for a by-election is overtaken by a dissolution of Parliament, the writ is automatically cancelled; the last such occasion was in 1924 when a writ for a by-election in London University was issued during the recess on 22 September 1924. Four candidates were nominated when nominations closed on 1 October, with polling scheduled for 13–17 October;[10] When the Government fell over the Campbell Case, the Prime Minister obtained a snap dissolution on 9 October, and the by-election did not take place.[11]

OK that sounds definitive, insofar as Wiki can ever be such.

So the question becomes, when is the latest date for a dissolution that would allow June 8th to go ahead?

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.

Who leads a movement is hugely important, particularly in this day and age, in terms of where it is going and if that is a good thing.

AlastairMeeks said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.

I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)

AndyJS said:

One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.

Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.

One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.

https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/854328244576944128

RobD said:

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

I have a duty in Kingston and Surbiton to vote for the party which is more likely to keep the Tories out. And for the softest Brexit.

Paradoxically, a thumping majority may lead to a softer Brexit.

Don't confuse him - he's not very bright.....

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

That's a big call.

As a Conservative supporter, I'm far from confident.

However, I expect the Lib Dems to be talked up *a lot*. Firstly, due to their campaigning competence and, secondly, because they will simply get a heck of a fair hearing amongst the middle/upper-middle class voters that dominate the media, arts, professions and business in London and the South East.

I'm looking at about 365 to 380 for the Conservatives.

Do you fancy Luton South?

surbiton said:

Casino_Royale said:

Inexplicably, I managed to back Tories most seats at 1.12 and Theresa May as PM after the next election at 1.15, at midday today.

When did bookies become charities ?

When they offered 4, 6, eventually 11 to 1 against Brexit.

Is Clegg standing in Sheffield?

Oh god..another election..

Seriously, at times like this politicalbetting comes into its own. Just a small opportunity to express my gratitude to mike and all who keep it running.

david_herdson said:

Y0kel said:

DavidL said:

Y0kel said:

Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?

I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.

There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.

Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.

Con lose 15 to LD
Con gain 60 from Lab
Con gain 5 from SNP

Result: Con maj circa 100.

Do Labour have 60 seats to give?

BannedInParis said:

SeanT said:

justin124 said:

SeanT said:

I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.

But a 7 week campaign is hardly a short campaign - indeed it is more than twice the length of both 1974 elections.

By today's standards it's incredibly short, because normally we see the election coming many months beforehand, so the campaigning starts early (long before the "official" campaign).

The GE of May 2015 essentially began on Jan 1st, 2015 - five LOOOONG months of electioneering.

This is just seven weeks. Short. Sharp. Shiny. Yay.

2010 was very similar, as well.

This is also (somewhat obviously, I think) compared to any of our near neighbours - US one lasts for what seems like *years*.

We have been denied a 2020 electoral supershow - UK and US GEs in the same year.

SeanT said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.

You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

Getting 'annihilated' is something most progressives do NOT want. It would be a long road back from such a defeat. A 200-220 seats Labour party will still mean the end of Corbyn and a respectable base to fight from.

DavidL said:

I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.

I believe she has said today that she will stand again.

MarkHopkins said:

The softest Brexit is likely to come from TMay having a decent majority.

Or no majority

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/854338691434774529

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.

Didn't she say she would stand down at the next GE?

I think she did but she probably didn't expect it to be this soon. Her constituency is likely to be very keen for her to stand again. I quite like her. She's feisty.

IanB2 said:

JonCisBack said:

Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

Con maj 80-90 I reckon

Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.

You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?

surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

MarkHopkins said:

The softest Brexit is likely to come from TMay having a decent majority.

Or no majority

No majority would be the worst of all worlds. It would be chaos.

Who knows, the Treasury forecast may be right!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.

I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)

Mike and myself will be trying to persuade Alastair to do a daily thread during the election campaign.

We just haven't told him yet.

Let's perhaps keep it under wraps just a little bit longer.

DavidL said:

I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.

She's standing.

https://twitter.com/MhairiBlack/status/854298973494018049

FrancisUrquhart said:

God Jezza is going to burst a blood vessel.

You would if a miracle happened and it got close.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Yorkcity said:

AlastairMeeks said:

In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

The constituency betting this time should be fascinating. I have a few seats that I am going to be looking at with great interest.

I am relying on you to make me a lot of money again :-)

Mike and myself will be trying to persuade Alastair to do a daily thread during the election campaign.

We just haven't told him yet.

Let's perhaps keep it under wraps just a little bit longer.

It's not me that needs to be told. It's my other half. That's an altogether more challenging proposition.

RobD said:

DavidL said:

I wonder what Mhairi Black will do. She has been sounding increasingly disenchanted with life at Westminster.

I believe she has said today that she will stand again.

2h
Mhairi Black MP‏ @MhairiBlack
I will be standing again in GE. This is our opportunity to once again reject the Tories’ agenda and provide a strong voice for Scotland.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.

Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.

One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.

Eastbourne voted heavily for Leave so I think a LD gain is not particularly likely. Interesting that the UKIP share in the polls isn't down much at all, to around 11% from 13% at GE2015. Yet they seem to be struggling to find candidates for the local elections.

JonCisBack said:

IanB2 said:

JonCisBack said:

Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

Con maj 80-90 I reckon

Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.

You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?

surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)

Farron is one of the best campaigners there is. OK he may not be as much a heavyweight politico as Clegg, but then Farron won't be pitching to be PM, or even DPM. Is May a better campaigner than Cameron? Is Corbyn a better campaigner than Miliband? Yes...exciting times.

rottenborough said:

A family member has put forward the theory that May has miscalculated and will lose because the whole thing will be Brexit vote mark II and remainers will vote accordingly in huge numbers.

Well, it's a theory.

Doesn't really work when Corbyn is more of a leaver than anyone short of Farage.