politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?
Comments
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oh dear.. did I hear you complaing when Blair lieed and lied as did Brown.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
You are just as bad as the resident LD misery/.0 -
Not just on this issue specifically, but we now have cast-iron proof that her word cannot be trusted and she'll change her mind on a whim just for tactical advantage.Carolus_Rex said:
Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Ham actress reading a script. Fake news.Danny565 said:
https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Its ok you only have to wait a few weeks until Jezza gets the gig full time....no sniggering at the back....RobD said:I'm almost disappointed we won't find out of Corbyn becomes interim PM in the event of a no confidence vote.
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Obviously Corbyn's Labour would get thrashed - but WHAT IF Labour get a new leader within days? Against May who's potentially just torpedoed her own USP of "serious stateswoman putting country ahead of party games".0
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JosiasJessop said:
Thanks. I'm surprised by that. I thought that Labour's finances were poorish, and the Conservatives' were good. But I'll bow to superior knowledge.MarkSenior said:
Labour and Lib Dems healthyJosiasJessop said:On another point, what is the state of the parties' finances? Will they be able to finance a GE battle (e.g. to the 2015 level)?
UKIP bankrupt
Conservatives poor but will have no problem raising the necessary finances to fight a strong campaign
Labour have been getting Short money.
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I'm expecting that UNS will be of limited assistance. I can imagine the Conservatives taking Bassetlaw but failing to take Tooting.0
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Equally, it's conceivable Labour could pick up one or two ultra-Remain metropolitan Tory seats (Cardiff North? Bristol North West?) while losing ultra-safe seats in the North East (in a neat bit of symmetry, I think Durham NW which May contested in 1992 could potentially go blue this time with Corbyn).AlastairMeeks said:I'm expecting that UNS will be of limited assistance. I can imagine the Conservatives taking Bassetlaw but failing to take Tooting.
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He never expected to have the job in the first place. That's one reason why I'd like to hear opinions on his route from here to No. 10 and becoming PM.SeanT said:
On TV he came across as a man relieved, more than anything else. He clearly doesn't like the job that much, and this early election will give him an excuse to retire with "honour".JosiasJessop said:When Labour suffer a mauling on May 4th and June 8th, can we really be sure that Corbyn will go?
Might he try to stay on? I can't see it, but he's proved rather hard to shift so far.
He fought the good fight, and he failed. That's emotionally different to being kicked out by the bastards in your own party.
I really hope it doesn't happen but .....0 -
You forgot "despite brexit"MarkHopkins said:
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Why am I praying [ as an aethist does ] that Labour gets smashed enough so that the Moron and his gang are done for good ?
I would even be prepared to watch Diane Abbott rake in even more money in TW.
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That would be dire for the Lib Dems: no net gains.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
I can really see Cambridge going back to the Lib Dems; then again, I got that one wrong in 2015 as well ...
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Hey, we let the English Independence Party stand in Scotland.KentRising said:
Some smug SNP prat on the BBC earlier saying 'sorry we can't stand in England, too, folks."Slackbladder said:I see the usual 'progressive alliance' calls are going up.
Good luck with that.
Yeah, Sturgeon would go down a treat in Maidenhead wouldn't she?
Twit.
For all the good it did them.0 -
a non evidence based assumptionwilliamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
You mean people like liars.SquareRoot said:
a non evidence based assumptionwilliamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Um... changing your mind on a whim is pretty much the essence of tactics, isn't it?williamglenn said:
Not just on this issue specifically, but we now have cast-iron proof that her word cannot be trusted and she'll change her mind on a whim just for tactical advantage.Carolus_Rex said:
Not really. The opposition won't be able to make anything of it unless they oppose the government tomorrow, which apparently they aren't going to do, and unless the opposition remind them, the public won't notice.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
It would be nice after this one not to be having more regular GE's than Belgium.....SeanT said:I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.
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They will win quite a few in SW England and SW London. Possibly also Rochdale, Hampstead etc.JosiasJessop said:
That would be dire for the Lib Dems: no net gains.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
I can really see Cambridge going back to the Lib Dems; then again, I got that one wrong in 2015 as well ...0 -
That's going to be an interesting betting market. What odds of a Tory majority 100+? 10/1? Better?SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
I predict she will get a majority between 60 and 100. Not an overwhelming landslide, but pretty damn emphatic.0 -
I was calling an early election last year - wasn't sure if Nov or May and in the end its just slipped into June. Either way May would have had to have been Diane Abbott levels of stupid not to go to the country.
Note that it takes another 2 months out of Brexit negotiations / Great Repeal Act which makes me think even more that the "negotiation" will be "Hello EFTA can we come back please"
As for next Labour Leader, if Balls gets a seat it'll be him. If he doesn't it'll be Starmer. Could argue it should be Starmer anyway as the *only* issue of interest after the election will be Brexit. Either way, won't be Corbyn. Woohoo!!!!0 -
Could Blair stand?0
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The SNP prefer non evidence to official data e.g. GERS.SquareRoot said:
a non evidence based assumptionwilliamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
I'll have £200 on that if you're offering.Animal_pb said:
That's going to be an interesting betting market. What odds of a Tory majority 100+? 10/1? Better?SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
I predict she will get a majority between 60 and 100. Not an overwhelming landslide, but pretty damn emphatic.0 -
I am very doubtful that Labour is going to be gaining any seats this time, though I understand your logic. I can't see angry Remainers trooping out to vote for Jeremy Corbyn. Why would they?Danny565 said:
Equally, it's conceivable Labour could pick up one or two ultra-Remain metropolitan Tory seats (Cardiff North? Bristol North West?) while losing ultra-safe seats in the North East (in a neat bit of symmetry, I think Durham NW which May contested in 1992 could potentially go blue this time with Corbyn).AlastairMeeks said:I'm expecting that UNS will be of limited assistance. I can imagine the Conservatives taking Bassetlaw but failing to take Tooting.
The Conservatives are going to go through Labour seats outside London and the metropolitan north west like a combine harvester.0 -
For the Lib Dems?Blue_rog said:Could Blair stand?
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First 'snap' GE since October 1974?0
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If May refuses to have a head to head debate with Corbyn she must be crap at them.0
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Labour's problem is not this election, that's past praying for. Their problem is that they are at serious risk of being in a position where they could gain 100 seats in 2022 and still not even be the largest party. Doesn't encourage what talent there is to hang around (or come back).SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
I predict she will get a majority between 60 and 100. Not an overwhelming landslide, but pretty damn emphatic.0 -
Simples - because it is the only way to rid Labour of Corbyn and his army of far left loons.surbiton said:Why am I praying [ as an aethist does ] that Labour gets smashed enough so that the Moron and his gang are done for good ?
Only then can Labour move on and become a viable opposition party once more.
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If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Impressively rapid Wikipedia article on the 2017 General Election, including polling data table0
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However, Hard Brexiters should not be too excited. Big compromises are coming up which they will not like.
Regardless of what she says in the campaign, she can go back on her word.0 -
no. just that you have no evidence to back up your assumption.surbiton said:
You mean people like liars.SquareRoot said:
a non evidence based assumptionwilliamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
Live with it. Labour will get thumped whatever you say on PB.0 -
That's been there a while!FF43 said:Impressively rapid Wikipedia article on the 2017 General Election, including polling data table
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Rather a give away from the Guardian!
First this: Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I’m still a bit in shock.."
Then later in the same article: In private, a number of senior Labour MPs said they were very worried. One MP said she was in complete shock and felt sick thinking of colleagues at risk of losing their seats in the Midlands.
Clearly Ms Phillips wanted the second bit, predicting imminent local losses for her party, to be 'off the record'. But with the Guardian's "she", reference to the Midlands, and repeat of the word "shock" I don't think we need to trouble Sherlock Holmes with this one....0 -
Some of us have been saying for a while that May would go for it.
The bet was that Corbyn would have to agree.
Ed Balls is well placed---clever, likeable, untarred, and, hopefully, freshly energised and no longer hors de combat, a fitter wiser fellow.0 -
Isn't that a tautologyTheScreamingEagles said:General elections give me the horn.
There I said it and I'm proud to say it.0 -
Don't know about you, but as also a self employed person, all this is terrible for my output...good job you got your latest book out of the way just in time.SeanT said:
Yeah, after this I'll be done with politics, for a while. No more referendums or elex til the early 2020s, ta v much.FrancisUrquhart said:
It would be nice after this one not to be having more regular GE's than Belgium.....SeanT said:I do like the British tradition of short, sharp and sometimes totally unexpected General Election campaigns.
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Who governs Britain? With two choices:KentRising said:First 'snap' GE since October 1974?
- Not EU.
- Not you.0 -
Just saying.The_Apocalypse said:Also, I can't believe that so many want Ed Balls to be Labour leader (for reasons that they think he'll genuinely be a good leader). I remember years ago he was seen as utterly toxic by many on here and Yvette Cooper was seen as far more electable than him. Personally, I'd like Keir Starmer to be the next Labour leader.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/might-balls-be-labours-answer-at-1001/0 -
It didn't work out because MPs such as Beckett were stupid enough to lend their votes to nominating Corbyn in order to have a 'wide political debate/represent all views.' That's unlikely to happen again.brokenwheel said:
Well that didn't work in 2015...The_Apocalypse said:If Corbyn doesn't resign (and he's that kind of person to hold on) he'll be challenged and lose that way. Corbyn's support is already down, a reality check GE should knock some sense into the rest of the people who support him.
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Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.KentRising said:Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
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Likewise !!!!TheScreamingEagles said:General elections give me the horn.
There I said it and I'm proud to say it.0 -
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
ThirdedRepublicanTory said:
Likewise !!!!TheScreamingEagles said:General elections give me the horn.
There I said it and I'm proud to say it.
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That by-election took place in March, before the 1983 election was called, so is not really relevant to my question.surbiton said:
Darlington 1983. Ossie O'Brian. Who can forget that ?Robert_Of_Sheffield said:What will happen with the coming by-election?
Wikipedia says by-elections have been cancelled in similar circumstances before, but not since 1924 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Countermanded_Poll
Is there any precedent more recent than 1924 for cancelling a by-election? Who, if anyone, has legal authority to make that decision?0 -
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.0 -
The interesting thing here is that Corbyn must have known.0
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May, Corbyn, Farron debate special....lower ratings than the latest series of Top Gear....0
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What's stopping them?KentRising said:
Some smug SNP prat on the BBC earlier saying 'sorry we can't stand in England, too, folks."Slackbladder said:I see the usual 'progressive alliance' calls are going up.
Good luck with that.0 -
Blair fought 1997 from opposition, not from government, and even quite late on they were paranoid they could lose.JosiasJessop said:
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
The dislike of Corbyn will be greater than the 'desire' for the lib dems.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.KentRising said:Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
How's their mansion tax policy these days?0 -
It's been a busy news week so far, hasn't it? And that's before a nuclear war in Korea.RobD said:Holy crap what have I missed!
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Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?SeanT said:
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.Roger said:
Looking ahead and on the bright side.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.0 -
There's no "same way" about it.JosiasJessop said:
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
In 1997 Labour was trying to oust a government and no-one expected a landslide of such proportions, and after so long a spell of Tory power no-one was going to risk preventing it by listening to such an argument.
This time the dynamic is completely different. The whole purpose of the election is for the sitting government to win a larger majority, and we all know why she wants it. The LibDems will play the "only we can stop a Tory majority" card for all it's worth...0 -
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And I always thought the expat rentier class had a more sophisticated vocabulary.....surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Anyone going to vote for Corbyn?0
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Hm.. May did say something along the lines of calling an early general election for a safe and secure society....williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
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Possible indication of a slightly lower than expected R1 FN poll ?
https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/8535920591938273280 -
18 months is an eternity in politics.
Tim Farron: Lib Dems would go back into coalition with Tories
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/23/tim-farron-lib-dems-coalition-tories-clegg
Tim Farron must hope voters have short memories.0 -
Roger said:
Anyone going to vote for Corbyn?
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Many in Islington North.Roger said:Anyone going to vote for Corbyn?
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I'll think they'll get more than that but I have already said I don't see the landslide. My guess at the moment would be that they will take 50-60 from Labour, maybe 3-4 from the SNP and lose maybe a dozen to the Lib Dems. That would add about 80 to their existing majority but leave them short of the 100.Y0kel said:
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.0 -
For the avoidance of doubt, that was a question, not an offer.Pulpstar said:
I'll have £200 on that if you're offering.Animal_pb said:
That's going to be an interesting betting market. What odds of a Tory majority 100+? 10/1? Better?SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.
I predict she will get a majority between 60 and 100. Not an overwhelming landslide, but pretty damn emphatic.
I note that a non-supporter thinks it's a better than 10% chance, though (ok 9%, before the pedants hyperventilate).0 -
It's not ony that. Zac wasn't standing as a Conservative, he'd made himself unpopular because of what was seen as a silly gimmick of a by-election and also his inept mayoral campaign, and in any case by-elections are generally easier for oppostion parties (especailly the LibDems) than GEs. So the starting base of a 4.5% LibDem majority is probably not enough for them to hold the seat IMO.Slackbladder said:
The dislike of Corbyn will be greater than the 'desire' for the lib dems.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.KentRising said:Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
How's their mansion tax policy these days?0 -
Again being charitable and assuming she has simply changed her mind, she still has not explained the change satisfactorily, and all those 'she gives her word and sticks to it' people look like fools, for thinking she was not, well, a politician.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Con lose 15 to LDY0kel said:
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con gain 60 from Lab
Con gain 5 from SNP
Result: Con maj circa 100.0 -
Nonsense, LibDem larger majority, nailed on.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe, but I expect Richmond Park itself will go back to the Conservatives.KentRising said:Remember Richmond Park. Some of the leafy posho bits of England that have voted Tory may switch to cuddly hummus-loving LD europhiles this time.
By-election winners almost always go on to hold at least once, especially if the by-election wasn't too long before the next General. Reckless was one of relatively few exceptions.0 -
Or miles ahead in the polls......Yorkcity said:If May refuses to have a head to head debate with Corbyn she must be crap at them.
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The LDs are seeking to erase the coalition from peoples' memoriesdr_spyn said:18 months is an eternity in politics.
Tim Farron: Lib Dems would go back into coalition with Tories
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/23/tim-farron-lib-dems-coalition-tories-clegg
Tim Farron must hope voters have short memories.0 -
Is that the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon I hear in the distance?david_herdson said:
Con lose 15 to LDY0kel said:
All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.DavidL said:
There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.htmlY0kel said:Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?
I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.
Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
Con gain 60 from Lab
Con gain 5 from SNP
Result: Con maj circa 100. 0 -
So, Lib Dem Seat bands.
10-19 @ 5/2 along with
20-29 @ 3/1
with Shadsy seems like a good idea?0 -
Oooooof. Surely not?!david_herdson said:
Con gain 5 from SNP0 -
I was answering the point about his not being a member.surbiton said:
Oh, I see. You have no procedures. Will everyone at Clacton Tory Association just accept it ?david_herdson said:
That could be rectified in a matter of seconds.surbiton said:
He is not a member , maybe ?david_herdson said:
Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?Artist said:Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.
My understanding is that candidates will be appointed to constituencies. I don't know the score in Clacton but Carswell always struck me as quite personally popular there. If there wasn't anyone already lined up then why not?0 -
She herself isn't example safe having won Yardley from the LDs last time around. That said with 60% voting leave it could be one place where the LD's EU stance harms them.IanB2 said:Rather a give away from the Guardian!
First this: Jess Phillips, the MP for Birmingham Yardley, said: “I’m still a bit in shock.."
Then later in the same article: In private, a number of senior Labour MPs said they were very worried. One MP said she was in complete shock and felt sick thinking of colleagues at risk of losing their seats in the Midlands.
Clearly Ms Phillips wanted the second bit, predicting imminent local losses for her party, to be 'off the record'. But with the Guardian's "she", reference to the Midlands, and repeat of the word "shock" I don't think we need to trouble Sherlock Holmes with this one....0 -
Impressive cliché density in just one line.edmundintokyo said:
This is true. It also gives everyone a lot more time for extensions and can kicks, which is the most plausible way to minimize the car crash.SeanT said:Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.
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It depends how much correlation there is between the 40% of remain voters and Lib Dem GE voters in that seat. If they overlap, then even in a seat like that it will help them.GarethoftheVale2 said:She herself isn't example safe having won Yardley from the LDs last time around. That said with 60% voting leave it could be one place where the LD's EU stance harms them.
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I don't have figures to hand so I don't know what is vulnerable.KentRising said:
Oooooof. Surely not?!david_herdson said:
Con gain 5 from SNP
BRS is an almost certain gain but it was 58% Remain and a huge Liberal traditional which may stop what I had pegged as an inevitable flip to Con.0 -
Corbyn is such an idiot he will probably forget to vote for himself, or be stuck in train toilet on election day or something.Roger said:Anyone going to vote for Corbyn?
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When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?0
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Kate McCannVERIFIED ACCOUNT @KateEMcCann 4 mins4 minutes ago
Labour source tells me veteran MP Alan Johnson won't be standing in the June general election
2 replies 14 retweets 4 likes
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In contrast to Richmond Park, I think he'll regain his seat quite comfortably.MarkHopkins said:0 -
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.JosiasJessop said:
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Seems I was right - it was a chat with her husband whilst walking that secured the decision.0
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SeanT said:
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.Roger said:
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?SeanT said:
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.Roger said:
Looking ahead and on the bright side.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure for Corbyn and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?
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Why does everyone seem so certain Corbyn will resign? I think you all underestimate his pig headed stupidity.0
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Are we going to get daily YouGovs again now?0
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"The country has united but Westminster has not." It's the language of the dictator.FF43 said:
It does become that because Theresa May has herself defended the election in those terms: my power needs to be untrammelled because institutions and other parties are trying to subvert the will of the people. It's the same arguments that Erdogan used in his referendum.JosiasJessop said:
The question doesn't become that, in the same way it didn't in 1997 when Tony Blair romped home.williamglenn said:
If no-one thinks Corbyn could be PM in a month of Sundays, the question becomes, "Do you want Theresa May to be an elected dictator?" A lot of people will say no, no matter how hopeless the opposition is.SeanT said:
she may be a lying bitch, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.surbiton said:
She is a lying b**ch.williamglenn said:John Curtice: "I believed the Prime Minister. Maybe I was a fool to do so."
A sentiment that is bound to grow.0 -
Any news from Ed? Surely there is a safe seat somewhere with someone who fancies a few quiet years in House of Lords?MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:
Dunno, but if Labour have any sense they should find a way.Roger said:
Any chance of getting him in before June 8th?SeanT said:
Miliband is not the man. Ed "Strictly" Balls is the man.Roger said:
Looking ahead and on the bright side.
1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.
2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit
3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for decades
4. May will be able to sack Johnson and Fox which she's very likely to do
5. And David Miliband might be persuaded to stand and save Labour from extinction.
But that would be the ultimate admission of failure by him and his supporters. Surely he has to try and fight in a GE or all his posturing is pointless?0 -
It genuinely wouldn't surprise me if he has a bike riding holiday in Venezuela booked during the GE campaign and he actually chooses to go on it.rottenborough said:
Corbyn is such an idiot he will probably forget to vote for himself, or be stuck in train toilet on election day or something.Roger said:Anyone going to vote for Corbyn?
Actually, a lot of Labour MP will probably be wishing he does.0 -
No.ThreeQuidder said:When was the last genuinely snap election? Does 1983 or 1987 qualify?
Last real "snap" or "crisis" election was 1974 when Ted asked the nation "Who governs Britain" and the answer came back... "Not you" ! 0 -
Shame, I wonder if the postie has done enough to be shuffled over to the red seats?Slackbladder said:Kate McCannVERIFIED ACCOUNT @KateEMcCann 4 mins4 minutes ago
Labour source tells me veteran MP Alan Johnson won't be standing in the June general election0 -
Exactly. He will try and stay until conference season at least.Jason said:Why does everyone seem so certain Corbyn will resign? I think you all underestimate his pig headed stupidity.
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