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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the local by-elections since last May the parties supported

24

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited April 2017
    tlg86 said:

    One thing is for sure, this race won't be starting at 17:15....

    Very true, five minutes to go and the jockeys are still having their photos taken without the horses!

    And 40 horses are really easy to get all to the start line at the same time, never been any problems there before...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    Good evening, my fellow F1 enthusiasts.

    Pre-race ramble with two tips by me and more in the comments:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/china-pre-race-2017.html

    Difficult one to predict but the grid, and weather, is intriguingly poised.

    Have a few more silly betting ideas.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1499174/#Comment_1499174

    TL:DR the Grand National is more predictable!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Things starting to hot up I see......
    Tesco CEO Dave Lewis, speaking at a press conference this morning at the Welwyn Garden City Headquarters, announced that the UK retailer will be relocating head offices to Malta. This decision was taken following several discussions with shareholders, with the majority of shareholders showing preference of relocating to Malta instead of to Cyprus, the next best option for the brand’s relocation.

    You've been had
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    malcolmg said:

    Hurst I am in the garden , can hardly see the laptop screen , a few glasses of lemonade taken , so easy mistake to make. I will never live it down.
    PS: I was really just testing to see if anyone would notice. MRSB gets a gold star for observance.
    No problem, Mr. G., with lemonade taken an easy mistake to make. I certainly won't mention it again, much.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,142
    West Ham :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. Sandpit, if it weren't for my loathing of such short odds, I'd be sorely tempted by Hamilton to lead lap 1.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    Mortimer said:

    This must be a record - called a Neo-Fascist and a Trot in the same fortnight! Both incorrect labels by loud Remainers, Surprise surprise!
    Brexit has created some strange alliances. Traditionalist conservatives and socialists on one side; liberal leftists, ultra economic liberals, the SNP and Sinn Fein on the other.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Well Malcolm will be happy!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884
    yes One for Arthur..........
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,127
    On Topic.

    Given that in most of the by-elections the Remainers only have one place to go whilst the Levers have at least two and a half parties to vote for, it is hardly surprising that the Remain vote is concentrated in the one minority party that supports that increasingly minority view.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    Stewards Enquiry?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,173
    Well, an ew on Blaklion ensured I won, in total,.....

    1 British pound.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    malcolmg said:

    Your wish will be granted soon.
    Not on current polling
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Sean_F said:

    Brexit has created some strange alliances. Traditionalist conservatives and socialists on one side; liberal leftists, ultra economic liberals, the SNP and Sinn Fein on the other.
    Too many labels, Mr. F.. Take it back to the 19th century, Free-Traders versus Protectionists. The problem being both sides claim to be Free-Traders and try to cast the other lot as Protectionists. It just depends on one's own point of view, but if you squint and look down to the left a bit you should just be able to make out the debate on the Corn Laws.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,152

    Good evening, my fellow F1 enthusiasts.

    Pre-race ramble with two tips by me and more in the comments:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/china-pre-race-2017.html

    Difficult one to predict but the grid, and weather, is intriguingly poised.

    Mr. D, not really liking any of the bets (which I'm hoping suggests a cracking race). In the dry, I fancy Vettel's Ferrari for the win, but the weather makes it too much of a lottery.
    I think I'll just enjoy the race, and keep my powder dry.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    "Grand National result makes Scottish Independence a racing certainty"

    Or maybe not.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    Thanks to @Pulpstar - Saint Are and Blacklion placed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Made a small sum myself (put money on for someone else, then added a few pounds for me):
    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1499016#Comment_1499016

    Mr. B, fair enough. It is looking dicey.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,955
    edited April 2017
    malcolmg said:

    yes One for Arthur..........

    Nice one, malc
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884
    Was I the only one to get the winner ....
  • malcolmg said:

    Was I the only one to get the winner ....

    I have Vicente.....

    brilliant value.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884

    Nice one, malc
    Thanks TUD, he looked a great prospect after his earlier race at Aintree, looked a natural at teh fences.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884

    I have Vicente.....

    brilliant value.
    My wife had him as well , she was less than chuffed
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. G, I made a very small sum as well.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sean_F said:

    Brexit has created some strange alliances. Traditionalist conservatives and socialists on one side; liberal leftists, ultra economic liberals, the SNP and Sinn Fein on the other.
    Not all 'Ultra Economic Liberals' are pro EU remainders!

    I don't clam or wish to speak on behalf of anybody but myself, so if you now ultra Economic Liberals who are Pro EU then that's nice for them.

    But at least one, me, supported Brexit. in an ideal would we could now adopted unilateral elimination of all trade tariffs and barriers, and adopt agricularal policy of New Zealand and an economic policy slimier to Singapore.

    I am not naive enough to think that is going to happen, at least not right away. But it does weaken the strength of the state, which is a wonderful thing. In a far more real way the UK government will be in competition with the EU and governments of the EU. and competition brings improves. for the customers i.e. people!

    When a cartel falls its the little guy who benefits most!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    BigRich said:

    Not all 'Ultra Economic Liberals' are pro EU remainders!

    I don't clam or wish to speak on behalf of anybody but myself, so if you now ultra Economic Liberals who are Pro EU then that's nice for them.

    But at least one, me, supported Brexit. in an ideal would we could now adopted unilateral elimination of all trade tariffs and barriers, and adopt agricularal policy of New Zealand and an economic policy slimier to Singapore.

    I am not naive enough to think that is going to happen, at least not right away. But it does weaken the strength of the state, which is a wonderful thing. In a far more real way the UK government will be in competition with the EU and governments of the EU. and competition brings improves. for the customers i.e. people!

    When a cartel falls its the little guy who benefits most!
    Not all, obviously. But, there are those who consider that nation States are an impediment to the operation of markets.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884

    Mr. G, I made a very small sum as well.

    Well done MD, always good to get any one in the first five of the National
  • FFS it's leicester/chelsea all over again
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    Sean_F said:

    Not all, obviously. But, there are those who consider that nation States are an impediment to the operation of markets.
    When I was doing my politics A Level one of the standard questions was "Is the nation state dead?" and I think the obvious answer is "no, I'd go for war for my country but not for Coca Cola."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    edited April 2017

    FFS it's leicester/chelsea all over again

    It's not over until it's over. Spurs play first again next weekend too. Plenty of time for Chelsea to choke.
  • tlg86 said:

    It's not over until it's over. Spurs play first again next weekend too. Plenty of time for Chelsea to choke.
    I'm going to that one though.... and Jose has said he'll be concentrating on their Europa Leagues games on the thursdays around the home game to Chelsea....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,127
    BigRich said:

    Not all 'Ultra Economic Liberals' are pro EU remainders!

    I don't clam or wish to speak on behalf of anybody but myself, so if you now ultra Economic Liberals who are Pro EU then that's nice for them.

    But at least one, me, supported Brexit. in an ideal would we could now adopted unilateral elimination of all trade tariffs and barriers, and adopt agricularal policy of New Zealand and an economic policy slimier to Singapore.

    I am not naive enough to think that is going to happen, at least not right away. But it does weaken the strength of the state, which is a wonderful thing. In a far more real way the UK government will be in competition with the EU and governments of the EU. and competition brings improves. for the customers i.e. people!

    When a cartel falls its the little guy who benefits most!
    Yep. Myself and Robert Smithson on here both fall into that category as well. As you say it is a pretty much minority belief and one we are unlikely to see fulfilled completely but that doesn't mean it isn't worth pursuing and that was something that could not be done whilst we remained inside the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. G, cheers. Entire fluke, though. Someone else asked me to back the horse, and I thought I'd be annoyed if it won and I hadn't put anything on myself :p
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,101
    Sean_F said:

    Not all, obviously. But, there are those who consider that nation States are an impediment to the operation of markets.
    The EU is like a giant sovereignty machine that is little by little raising the position of the nations of Europe from being a mere chessboard over which outside powers competed, back to a position of political preeminence in the world.

    The UK has voted to turn itself back into a chessboard.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    edited April 2017
    Here's something worth looking at when making predictions for next month's local elections.

    Its the Rallings and Thrasher prediction for the 2013 local elections, based upon local by-elections:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/21/lab-set-to-win-the-battle-for-votes-on-may-2nd-but-the-blues-surely-will-still-win-most-seats/

    So what did they predict:

    Lab 38
    Con 29
    LibD 16
    UKIP 11

    And the actual results:

    Lab 29
    Con 26
    UKIP 22
    LibD 13

    The difference being:

    Lab -9
    Con -3
    UKIP +11
    LibD -3

    Council by-elections do not have a good record as a predictive tool.

    And here are the comical R&T predictions for this year:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/02/the-countrys-leading-psephologists-bring-more-bad-news-for-corbyn/#vanilla-comments

    Labour to get 29% and lose only 50 seats.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sean_F said:

    Not all, obviously. But, there are those who consider that nation States are an impediment to the operation of markets.
    Yes, and I largely agree with that assessment. governments all sizes and shapes are bad, or at least sub optimal. The 'badness' or distance from the optimal gets larger as the state covers a bigger area.


    When governments are in competition with each over wonderful things happen. the Greek city states of 600-300 BCE for example, or some extent the swize cantons of today.

    Full anarchy may be the best, but it has the weakens of what stops somebody rising to impose a new order, lots of small competing states is a close almost as good solution that is more stable. at least that my opinion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    edited April 2017
    BigRich said:

    Not all 'Ultra Economic Liberals' are pro EU remainders!

    I don't clam or wish to speak on behalf of anybody but myself, so if you now ultra Economic Liberals who are Pro EU then that's nice for them.

    But at least one, me, supported Brexit. in an ideal would we could now adopted unilateral elimination of all trade tariffs and barriers, and adopt agricularal policy of New Zealand and an economic policy slimier to Singapore.

    I am not naive enough to think that is going to happen, at least not right away. But it does weaken the strength of the state, which is a wonderful thing. In a far more real way the UK government will be in competition with the EU and governments of the EU. and competition brings improves. for the customers i.e. people!

    When a cartel falls its the little guy who benefits most!
    There were certainly economic liberals behind Brexit, especially in Vote Leave as opposed to the more nationalist and immigration focused Leave.EU but far from weakening the power of the state Brexit has if anything strengthened it, we will now have tougher immigration laws to control free movement of labour, inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market and May and Hammond have slowed Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245

    The EU is like a giant sovereignty machine that is little by little raising the position of the nations of Europe from being a mere chessboard over which outside powers competed, back to a position of political preeminence in the world.

    The UK has voted to turn itself back into a chessboard.
    I'm not interested in dominating the world. I want self-determination.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Yep. Myself and Robert Smithson on here both fall into that category as well. As you say it is a pretty much minority belief and one we are unlikely to see fulfilled completely but that doesn't mean it isn't worth pursuing and that was something that could not be done whilst we remained inside the EU.

    Thanks Richard,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:

    Yes, and I largely agree with that assessment. governments all sizes and shapes are bad, or at least sub optimal. The 'badness' or distance from the optimal gets larger as the state covers a bigger area.


    When governments are in competition with each over wonderful things happen. the Greek city states of 600-300 BCE for example, or some extent the swize cantons of today.

    Full anarchy may be the best, but it has the weakens of what stops somebody rising to impose a new order, lots of small competing states is a close almost as good solution that is more stable. at least that my opinion.
    With large global multinational corporations you need multinational action to regulate them and ensure they play by the rules
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not interested in dominating the world. I want self-determination.
    Not that the EU is going to be dominating the world in any case.

    Whilst the EU is creating its 'giant sovereignty machine' it is steadily falling in power and influence across the world.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    HYUFD said:

    With large global multinational corporations you need multinational action to regulate them and ensure they play by the rules
    Alternatively, that makes it easier for the multinationals to capture the regulatory authorities and ensure that the rules are favourable to them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    Sean_F said:

    <
    I'm not interested in dominating the world. I want self-determination.

    As do I but I don't want the centralisation of power at Westminster either.

  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    There were certainly economic liberals behind Brexit, especially in Vote Leave as opposed to the more nationalist and immigration focused Leave.EU but far from weakening the power of the state Brexit has if anything strengthened it, we will now have tougher immigration laws to control free movement of labour, inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market and May and Hammond have slowed Cameron and Osborne's austerity policies.
    Yes, the economists for Brexit, led largely by Patrice Minford, where the champions of this attitude, not that may people paid much attention.

    As for immigration, so long as the UK economy creates Jobs people will (try to) come here.

    Osborn had gone so week on deficit reduction it was becoming pointless, We are still to see how committed Hammond is, the sins from his first budget are not good. but he is still way better than John McDonald!

    but overall we will not be able to judge these things for many decades.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    stodge said:

    As do I but I don't want the centralisation of power at Westminster either.

    I think its the concentration of political, cultural and financial power in London which is detrimental to Britain.

    Comparing other English speaking countries - USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa all have multiple power centres.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. F, surely everybody wants to rule the world?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGvwh7yKMtY
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @ HYFUD

    "... inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market ..."

    Why? Why is it inevitable that the UK impose import duties? Once we are outside the EU,
    what is to stop the UK unilaterally lifting all tariffs on trade?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,127

    The EU is like a giant sovereignty machine that is little by little raising the position of the nations of Europe from being a mere chessboard over which outside powers competed, back to a position of political preeminence in the world.

    The UK has voted to turn itself back into a chessboard.
    Wrong in absolutely every respect. The EU sucked sovereignty away from the nations not enhanced it. But since we have ascertained in the past that you both fail to understand the meaning of the word sovereignty and have an innate hatred for the nation state it is hardly surprising you make such an utterly foolish statement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161

    I think its the concentration of political, cultural and financial power in London which is detrimental to Britain.

    Comparing other English speaking countries - USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa all have multiple power centres.
    The UK is closer to France in having all its financial, cultural and political power in its capital city
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566

    Yes, Mr Hopkins, I have. Brickies either don't turn up at all, or fail to submit an estimate, or, in two instances, submit acceptable estimates but then don't actually start work. There is so much housebuilding going on around here that a skilled bricklayer can basically write his own pay cheque and doing a week's worth of repointing doesn't seem to be worth their while.
    Used to live near you - have sent a PM with a recommendation.
    Good luck!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    Sean_F said:

    Alternatively, that makes it easier for the multinationals to capture the regulatory authorities and ensure that the rules are favourable to them.
    Not if it is undertaken by agreement across nations
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,101

    I think its the concentration of political, cultural and financial power in London which is detrimental to Britain.

    Comparing other English speaking countries - USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa all have multiple power centres.
    Which, given that the UK is supposedly a union of four nations, is a damning indictment of our constitutional foresight, yet we presume to lecture our neighbours on this question.

    What most of the examples you mentioned have in common is federalism.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    @Another_Richard - that's very interesting, thank you. R&T's prediction in 2013 looked similar to the GE polling at the time for Labour and the Tories...but not for Ukip and the Lib Dems.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,127
    Sean_F said:


    Alternatively, that makes it easier for the multinationals to capture the regulatory authorities and ensure that the rules are favourable to them.

    Yep. Centralising the regulatory power in one place made it a hell of a lot easier for the big multinationals to lobby for continent wide changes to suit themselves rather than having to bother with 28 separate states, some of whom might actually still quaint ideas about being answerable to the wishes of the people or other such strange democratic notions.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rkrkrk said:

    Used to live near you - have sent a PM with a recommendation.
    Good luck!
    Thanks very much. I will follow up your recommendation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:

    Yes, the economists for Brexit, led largely by Patrice Minford, where the champions of this attitude, not that may people paid much attention.

    As for immigration, so long as the UK economy creates Jobs people will (try to) come here.

    Osborn had gone so week on deficit reduction it was becoming pointless, We are still to see how committed Hammond is, the sins from his first budget are not good. but he is still way better than John McDonald!

    but overall we will not be able to judge these things for many decades.
    Osborne had committed to take spending as a percentage of gdp down to just 35%, one of the lowest rates in the developed world but Hammond seems to have quietly dropped that. In the long run we may be better off, though that ironically may require a future Labour government to return us to the single market while staying out of the EU itself but in the short term the vote was really to put sovereignty and control of immigration over economic growth
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897
    Toon playing awfully...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161

    Which, given that the UK is supposedly a union of four nations, is a damning indictment of our constitutional foresight, yet we presume to lecture our neighbours on this question.

    What most of the examples you mentioned have in common is federalism.
    We now have federalism of a form with the devolved parliaments and assemblies but I would agree that we are, alongside France, the most centralised major western nation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161

    @ HYFUD

    "... inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market ..."

    Why? Why is it inevitable that the UK impose import duties? Once we are outside the EU,
    what is to stop the UK unilaterally lifting all tariffs on trade?

    Zero chance of May doing that if the EU impose tariffs on UK goods
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3145643/theresa-may-tariffs-on-goods-from-eu/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,547
    edited April 2017
    1. It is absolutely ridiculous that they can't get the horses off in an orderly manner. 40 horses over four miles and the starter let's them put their heads over the tape. Have them walk in from 100 yards and have done with it. Shades of Keith Brown.

    2. So Nige thinks it's fine to launch chemical weapons attacks as long as you're not a Muslim.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    With large global multinational corporations you need multinational action to regulate them and ensure they play by the rules

    No you don't, you really don't, and that IMO is a dangers thought.

    Firstly, Big corporations Love Regulations, it keeps out the competition especially new and innovative companies.

    Secondly, companies only get big in a free market if they are producing things that people want to buy for less than any body else, e.g. a big car company!

    Thirdly, when pushed by competition companies have to operate in the most optimal ways, and because of competing economies of scales and diss-economies of scale, when a company gets big in market share, is needs, if it wants to say efficient to subcontract as much as it can e.g. big car companies buying lost of components.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245

    Yep. Centralising the regulatory power in one place made it a hell of a lot easier for the big multinationals to lobby for continent wide changes to suit themselves rather than having to bother with 28 separate states, some of whom might actually still quaint ideas about being answerable to the wishes of the people or other such strange democratic notions.
    Actually, I think the argument over economic liberalism pulls in two directions.

    OTOH, having lots of different national laws and regulatory regimes will act as a barrier to the free movement of goods, services, and capital. But, on the other, national authorities can innovate, and respond to changes and public opinion far more rapidly than international bodies.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    All for freedom and for pleasure
    Nothing ever lasts forever

    Mr. F, surely everybody wants to rule the world?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    @ HYFUD

    "... inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market ..."

    Why? Why is it inevitable that the UK impose import duties? Once we are outside the EU,
    what is to stop the UK unilaterally lifting all tariffs on trade?

    The dropping of any and all barriers to trade should be our default assumption once we leave the EU.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. M, quite liked Lorde's cover of that. Rare case of a cover being at least comparable to the original rather than horrendous.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    Osborne had committed to take spending as a percentage of gdp down to just 35%, one of the lowest rates in the developed world but Hammond seems to have quietly dropped that. In the long run we may be better off, though that ironically may require a future Labour government to return us to the single market while staying out of the EU itself but in the short term the vote was really to put sovereignty and control of immigration over economic growth

    People voted for all sorts of reasons, I fully accept that mine is a minority position.

    Osborn did have a 35% target, but in the last few years did very little to get us there, and some really stupid things e.g. the 'help to buy' give away! Hammond may or may not tern out to be better.

    But don't let me sound to pessimistic about the UK and the conservatives, they are better than Labour would be, especially at the moment. and ones outside the EU we will have the freedom and incentive to do better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    edited April 2017
    Sandpit said:

    The dropping of any and all barriers to trade should be our default assumption once we leave the EU.
    Won't happen, not now May is PM, she is certainly no economic liberal
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sandpit said:

    The dropping of any and all barriers to trade should be our default assumption once we leave the EU.
    Hear hear!!!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    tlg86 said:

    @Another_Richard - that's very interesting, thank you. R&T's prediction in 2013 looked similar to the GE polling at the time for Labour and the Tories...but not for Ukip and the Lib Dems.

    The R&T predictions for the 2013 local elections were not dissimilar to the ICM polls:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm

    Whereas they are now.

    I suspect that the psephology experts are almost unwilling to believe that the Conservatives are doing so well in the polls as it is unprecedented.

    Although the Copeland and Stoke by-elections back up the opinion polls.

    We will see in a few weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:


    No you don't, you really don't, and that IMO is a dangers thought.

    Firstly, Big corporations Love Regulations, it keeps out the competition especially new and innovative companies.

    Secondly, companies only get big in a free market if they are producing things that people want to buy for less than any body else, e.g. a big car company!

    Thirdly, when pushed by competition companies have to operate in the most optimal ways, and because of competing economies of scales and diss-economies of scale, when a company gets big in market share, is needs, if it wants to say efficient to subcontract as much as it can e.g. big car companies buying lost of components.
    Big companies can now move to wherever they want and if they are able to move to places with few if any rules they will not play due account to ensure they avoid behaving recklessly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    edited April 2017
    BigRich said:


    People voted for all sorts of reasons, I fully accept that mine is a minority position.

    Osborn did have a 35% target, but in the last few years did very little to get us there, and some really stupid things e.g. the 'help to buy' give away! Hammond may or may not tern out to be better.

    But don't let me sound to pessimistic about the UK and the conservatives, they are better than Labour would be, especially at the moment. and ones outside the EU we will have the freedom and incentive to do better.
    Ironically May and Hammond are more statist than Cameron and Osborne, Farron and Corbyn even more statist than Clegg and Miliband so we are now heading in a less economically liberal direction than we were in 2015
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,245
    HYUFD said:

    Big companies can now move to wherever they want and if they are able to move to places with few if any rules they will not play due account to ensure they avoid behaving recklessly
    By and large, the places without rules are places you don't want to move to.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    Big companies can now move to wherever they want and if they are able to move to places with few if any rules they will not play due account to ensure they avoid behaving recklessly
    What do you mean By behaving recklessly? opening factories in places that need jobs? selling goods that people what to buy?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    Sean_F said:

    By and large, the places without rules are places you don't want to move to.
    Depends if it is a tax haven or in a state of anarchy
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    Ironically May and Hammond are more statist than Cameron and Osborne, Farron and Corbyn even more statist than Clegg and Miliband so we are now heading in a less economically liberal direction than we were in 2015

    I fear you are right in this, when May made her comments about peoples Pudding size, I was very disappointed. and her subsidy of Nuclear Power is so infuriating to me!

    I simply believe outside the EU there will be more presser on whoever is in 10 Downing street to indulge authoritarian instincts of, well to some extent everybody who seeks power over us by becoming a politician in the first place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:

    What do you mean By behaving recklessly? opening factories in places that need jobs? selling goods that people what to buy?
    Giving vast sums to senior executives, lending too much without the capital to support it and failing to properly invest
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:


    I fear you are right in this, when May made her comments about peoples Pudding size, I was very disappointed. and her subsidy of Nuclear Power is so infuriating to me!

    I simply believe outside the EU there will be more presser on whoever is in 10 Downing street to indulge authoritarian instincts of, well to some extent everybody who seeks power over us by becoming a politician in the first place.
    As I said earlier I think any economic benefits will come ten or twenty years down the line, not in the short-term
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    HYUFD said:

    Won't happen, not now May is PM, she is certainly no economic liberal
    No matter what she is, her government will be significantly better than one dictated to by French farmers, Italian wine growers and German car makers.

    And, really importantly, if we don't like the direction the government is taking we can kick them out at election time and replace them with another lot who can make a real difference - rather than just another flavour of the same EU soup we have had for the last 40 years.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sean_F said:

    By and large, the places without rules are places you don't want to move to.
    I disagree with you there, migration trends, show people move to less regulated places not more, the biggest example is in the US where people are moving to low regulation Texas and out of states like high regulation California.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    As I said earlier I think any economic benefits will come ten or twenty years down the line, not in the short-term
    On that we are agreed!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Sean_F said:

    Actually, I think the argument over economic liberalism pulls in two directions.

    OTOH, having lots of different national laws and regulatory regimes will act as a barrier to the free movement of goods, services, and capital. But, on the other, national authorities can innovate, and respond to changes and public opinion far more rapidly than international bodies.
    Spot on. Where you fall on that debate is, really, what it comes down to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    Sandpit said:

    No matter what she is, her government will be significantly better than one dictated to by French farmers, Italian wine growers and German car makers.

    And, really importantly, if we don't like the direction the government is taking we can kick them out at election time and replace them with another lot who can make a real difference - rather than just another flavour of the same EU soup we have had for the last 40 years.
    Again it is in the longer term the benefits will really show
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    BigRich said:

    On that we are agreed!!
    Good to hear
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sandpit said:

    No matter what she is, her government will be significantly better than one dictated to by French farmers, Italian wine growers and German car makers.

    And, really importantly, if we don't like the direction the government is taking we can kick them out at election time and replace them with another lot who can make a real difference - rather than just another flavour of the same EU soup we have had for the last 40 years.
    I defiantly agree we are better off when are trade policy's are not built around protecting French farmers etc....

    But I would not put to much confidence in the idea that we will elect a new set of politiians who will be so much better than the last. the difference hopefully, will be that it will now become clearer when and where governments do stupid things, so they have less ability, less power, to do stupid things!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    HYUFD said:

    Depends if it is a tax haven or in a state of anarchy
    No. Absolutely not. Tax "havens" definitely have rules. Often more strict than elsewhere.

    To pick an appropriate example. - it's very hard to get a gambling licence in Gib but if you manage it the tax rewards can be substantial.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not interested in dominating the world. I want self-determination.
    Well, ideally I'd like both really.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The R&T predictions for the 2013 local elections were not dissimilar to the ICM polls:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm

    Whereas they are now.

    I suspect that the psephology experts are almost unwilling to believe that the Conservatives are doing so well in the polls as it is unprecedented.

    Although the Copeland and Stoke by-elections back up the opinion polls.

    We will see in a few weeks.
    Stoke only pointed to a Tory lead of circa 10/11%.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    BigRich said:

    I defiantly agree we are better off when are trade policy's are not built around protecting French farmers etc....

    But I would not put to much confidence in the idea that we will elect a new set of politiians who will be so much better than the last. the difference hopefully, will be that it will now become clearer when and where governments do stupid things, so they have less ability, less power, to do stupid things!
    I think we pretty much agree.

    Hopefully our governments have more power to do things in general though, some of which will be good and some of which will undoubtedly be stupid. But they remain accountable to the British people and if they won't tidy up their own mess then we'll find someone else who will*

    *Assuming of course we actually get an Opposition worthy of the name sometime soon, replacing Corbyn's mob with competent politicians might be a higher priority right now!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,266
    justin124 said:

    Stoke only pointed to a Tory lead of circa 10/11%.
    Indeed.

    But a Conservative lead of 'only' 10% in the local elections is likely to give them hundreds of gains.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sean_F said:

    Actually, I think the argument over economic liberalism pulls in two directions.

    OTOH, having lots of different national laws and regulatory regimes will act as a barrier to the free movement of goods, services, and capital. But, on the other, national authorities can innovate, and respond to changes and public opinion far more rapidly than international bodies.
    Actually, I agree with you on this, I put forward one side of the argument, not because I don't think the over does not exist but because I think it is move powerful.

    There have been some exelant examples of larger ish garments setting some common rules and impotently free internal movement of people, good, capital, that contain lots of smaller governments, that compete against each over.

    The best example would be the Dutch republic's within the '7 provinces' in the 17 centaury, and the USA before 1930s.

    in both cases they where some of the best places to live in there time, were economically and socially free, and wealthy, with wonderful examples of art, and so on coming out, in both cases a gilded age.

    However in both cases the central government took over ore and more power, move spending in the center and less at the local level, move regulations from the center and so on. and at that point the exeptialisum faded, slowly, but it faded. My fear is the EU is centralising already before it has a golden age, and its demise, in terms of comparison to the rest of the would has already started.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Sandpit said:

    I think we pretty much agree.

    Hopefully our governments have more power to do things in general though, some of which will be good and some of which will undoubtedly be stupid. But they remain accountable to the British people and if they won't tidy up their own mess then we'll find someone else who will*

    *Assuming of course we actually get an Opposition worthy of the name sometime soon, replacing Corbyn's mob with competent politicians might be a higher priority right now!
    Sandpit, thanks and its nice to hear somebody say they generally agree.

    So I really hope I don't come across as arrogant or ungrashas, but to rephrase what you say, I would say 'hopefully are governments will have less power to.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,101
    BigRich said:

    However in both cases the central government took over ore and more power, move spending in the center and less at the local level, move regulations from the center and so on. and at that point the exeptialisum faded, slowly, but it faded. My fear is the EU is centralising already before it has a golden age, and its demise, in terms of comparison to the rest of the would has already started.

    The EU budget is 1% of GDP and it has proven itself to be institutionally resistant to large scale fiscal transfers. I think your fears are misplaced.

    The comparison with the rest of the world over the recent period is heavily skewed by the integration of China into the global economy and rapid globalisation. To judge the progress of Europe on that basis will lead you to the wrong conclusions.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    BigRich said:

    Not all 'Ultra Economic Liberals' are pro EU remainders!

    I don't clam or wish to speak on behalf of anybody but myself, so if you now ultra Economic Liberals who are Pro EU then that's nice for them.

    But at least one, me, supported Brexit. in an ideal would we could now adopted unilateral elimination of all trade tariffs and barriers, and adopt agricularal policy of New Zealand and an economic policy slimier to Singapore.

    I am not naive enough to think that is going to happen, at least not right away. But it does weaken the strength of the state, which is a wonderful thing. In a far more real way the UK government will be in competition with the EU and governments of the EU. and competition brings improves. for the customers i.e. people!

    When a cartel falls its the little guy who benefits most!
    Best argument for Brexit I have heard. I don't agree with it, but it makes sense.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    The EU budget is 1% of GDP and it has proven itself to be institutionally resistant to large scale fiscal transfers. I think your fears are misplaced.

    The comparison with the rest of the world over the recent period is heavily skewed by the integration of China into the global economy and rapid globalisation. To judge the progress of Europe on that basis will lead you to the wrong conclusions.
    Fair point on the Budget, for now at least. The amount of regulation and the range of things that are being covered by it is far to big and growing, at least in my opinion.

    As to the rest of the would, china is one country, but almost everywhere the GDP is growing faster than in the EU, and overall the would is becoming a less regulated, more free economically and slowly that is translating in to more social freedom as well, the EU seems to me to be going in the other direction at lest economically.

    Singapore is 94% richer per person than we are, if we wanted it we could be as well, all you have to do is embrace economic freedom!!! IMO
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Best argument for Brexit I have heard. I don't agree with it, but it makes sense.

    Thanks :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,936
    edited April 2017
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/08/suspect-arrested-stockholm-attack-likely-truck-hijacker/

    I see the swedish authorities and media are persisting with their bizarro approach. Won't give a name despite saying the individual has confessed and known to them. Media know but won't say. and even more bizarre the media pixelating out photos of the individual arrested, despite the authorities having put out a photo of him on the metro....But it's OK to show victims and special ops police.

    Is this legal issues or another example of what seems a very odd approach by swedish (like their we will never do any demographic based surveys of criminals because it's racist)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,161
    edited April 2017
    BigRich said:

    Fair point on the Budget, for now at least. The amount of regulation and the range of things that are being covered by it is far to big and growing, at least in my opinion.

    As to the rest of the would, china is one country, but almost everywhere the GDP is growing faster than in the EU, and overall the would is becoming a less regulated, more free economically and slowly that is translating in to more social freedom as well, the EU seems to me to be going in the other direction at lest economically.

    Singapore is 94% richer per person than we are, if we wanted it we could be as well, all you have to do is embrace economic freedom!!! IMO
    Singapore bans chewing gum and a majority of its residents own property provided by the state. Sweden is also richer than we are and is far more regulated than the UK is and spends significantly more, generally economic freedom leads to more wealth but that is not absolute
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,101
    BigRich said:

    Singapore is 94% richer per person than we are, if we wanted it we could be as well, all you have to do is embrace economic freedom!!! IMO

    Jean-Claude Juncker's Luxembourg does even better on that score...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,814

    @ HYFUD

    "... inevitably some customs duties imposed on EU imports once we leave the single market ..."

    Why? Why is it inevitable that the UK impose import duties? Once we are outside the EU,
    what is to stop the UK unilaterally lifting all tariffs on trade?

    While i obviously support that, i am not naive enough to expect that to actually happen.
This discussion has been closed.