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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First polls give the French Presidential debate to Macron and he remains the strong odds-on favourite
It’s been a big night in the French Presidential election with the first major TV debate between the top five candidates. Ahead of the event the assumption had been that the contender most at risk was the young centrist independent and odds-on betting favourite, Emmanuel Macron.
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My own reaction (biased of course):
- Macron was very hesitant at the beginning and only started to show passion when attacked on his campaign financing by Hamon.He spent the whole (long) economic section repeating "I agree with Francois Fillon" while being closer to left-wing candidates on issues such as police and immigration, as expected. He did not make rookie mistakes and sounded serious. The best point for him is that nobody really discussed the fact that this"centrist independent" wrote Hollande's 2012 economic program, was his most senior advisor for rwo years and economic minister until six months ago.
- Hamon was apparently only talking to left-wing voters and clearly abandoned the center ground. He sounded like the 1990ies student leader he was, with the same unchanged program. To summarize, he said a few weeks ago that Corbyn represents for him a "model of success". He attacked Macron on campaign finance but backed off too quickly.
- Le Pen was not as dynamic as usual and showed her limits on technical subjects. Her core message (Anti-EU, anti-immigartion) was still clear and probably effective for her supporters. However, I don't think she has extended her image as a credible president. She is a tough debater but is probably better one on one.
- Fillon was too timid, even absent during the first part. He recovered progressively and was much better on the economy and foreign affairs. His gravitas is unrivalled among the five and he clearly wants to be seen as the serious and experienced choice. This kind of behavior works very well with his core electorate (older voters and conservatives) but is more of a problem for younger, less-engaged voters. Any discussion on substance is good for him, as it changes the focus from his personal issues.
- Melenchon was very good, as expected. He is a much better debater than Hamon and it showed. He had the best jokes and punchlines and managed to feel more comfortable than all the others, even if he is the oldest (65). He has a program very similar to Hamon's but he sold it much better. I would not be surprised if some polls show him ahead of Hamon soon.
- after 5 years of Hollande's socialist governments, nobody defended its actions. The two former Hollande ministers (Hamon and Macron) sounded like long-term opponents.
By Thursday last week we had seen the SNP move right across the board of positions on the EU, and then back again to a holding position of wait and see before Andrew Wilson's policy commission reports. Then over the weekend, we saw Sturgeon backtracking as their political positioning began to look more ridiculous. Now she claims that Scotland would apply to re-enter the EU and that regardless of their policy of entry being dependent of adopting the Euro she now plans to keep the pound. So what is the point of waiting for Andrew Wilson's commission? Sturgeon was bounced into that stunt last Monday, and it shows with the continued contradictory policy messages coming out of SNP HQ.
But I keep coming back to the point I have been making since Sturgeon's annoncement last Monday, there simple is not any appetite in Scotland outside the hardcore SNP membership to have another rerun of the last extremely divisive Indy campaign before, during or after Brexit in this Parliament. The Scottish economy and the current state of our public services are what matters to Scottish voters right now, and they don't want the added uncertainty and chaos of another Indy Ref to further undermine either no matter how much the SNP party might hope that it will enhance their brand of grudge and grievance politics for party political advantage.
Right now, Theresa May just needs to hold firm and lead by example when dealing with the SNP. She needs to make it a matter of principle that she intends to put country before party and will therefore focus on getting the best Brexit deal for the whole UK while ignoring calls to instigate a snap GE for party political advantage and gains against a moribund Labour party. Just contrast that stance with the SNP and Scottish Greens behaviour this week, a very cynical, calculated and partisan attempt to try to undermine the Westminster Government's negociations with the EU over the next two years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39334111
Corbyn and McDonnell have an opportunity to upset voters by reminding them of their past support for SF/IRA. It would not surprise me if they both foul up.
That N. Ireland has, more or less, peace is due to the fsact that he and Paisley managed to work together so well.
Seems a strange one to me. Going to really hurt those airlines with business class/other customers who want to work on the plane.
Part of me almost thinks it's a non trade barrier to help out US airlines... But maybe that's too cynical?
They could argue that US airlines can be controlled and checked for compliance with regulations much more than non-US airlines. A bit hard on the main European airlines and others, but they won't care about that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daallo_Airlines_Flight_159
Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-38640430
Would have been ‘interesting’ to hear some of his confessions, particularly the last!
Aren't security checks/scanners handled by airports not airlines?
The Manchester bombing of 1996 led to the regeneration of central Manchester.
Martin McGuinness probably did more for Manchester than the government between 1979 and 2010.
But of course supporters of Irish independence wouldn't see him as a terrorist. If you give the IRA the right to hold a view of wanting Irish independence, and trace the history of the movement back to, say, 1916, then his was an understandable journey.
Judgement now? I respect his views and that journey.
Knowing Corbyn, he'll go to Warrington to make his tribute
Lord Tebbit says McGuinness only sought peace because he was a coward and murderer who feared arrest for personally killing people.
As does Kyle Paisley, Ian P’s second son.
Personally I think this is bad news on a number of levels. The most significant is probably that it makes sorting out the mess in Northern Ireland more difficult without him using any influence with the Unionists. However, the problems are not his fault and he was right to act as he did over Foster.
Expect direct rule in one month.
http://www.westmonster.com/george-galloway-enters-mother-of-all-by-elections-in-manchester-gorton/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39335904
The tweeted condolences should be interesting today, bags of interest and er, interpretations.
Galloway must lose. I don't want him back in Parliament.
Martin McGuinness is dead. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39185899
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, I have backed Galloway to win. You can thank me (when he loses) later.
Three and a half hours is a damned long time. But I know they'll destroy the one ring eventually.
Or you can go Lib Dem
Though the first step back for Stormont would be Arlene Foster to admit her responsibility for the recent disaster.
I hope the greatest beneficiaries will be the families of people from the Nationalist Community murdered on the order of the 'IRA leadership' who have suffered in addition to the loss of friends and family.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39281428
I remember thinking when paisley died it was about the only time I could remember a senior political figure in this country dying where many newspaper columns were at times pretty unfortunate direct in criticism of him as a man, not just that soecual brevity you get when people have nothing nice they feel able to say but font feel they can be openly negative.
"The (72) MPs warned the future of the BBC "will be in doubt" if it is not seen as a impartial broker".
Tory MPs threatening and bullying the BBC ........
Please don't ever change or you might become likeable
The letter, which was also copied to the incoming chair of the BBC Board Sir David Clementi, did not include any specific examples.
Edited extra bit: Betfair needs to add Galloway.
He never could quite make that last step. Although to be fair, admitting it might have involved landing others in it.
Would a TRC in Northern Ireland have worked, or been useful?
I can accept a general point that the coverage has not been as impartial as it perhaps could be, but they usually oversell these things and are too lazy to provide more than anecdotal evidence, because it's really just about snowflake whinging.
Disgruntled former BBC employee-turned MP settling scores.
During his lean years he wrote the *avoiding inheritance tax for dummies* book;
https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Books/Wills-Probate-Inheritance-Tax-Dummies-Julian-Knight/0470756292/ref=la_B001JSHG86_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1490084439&sr=1-2
Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657
From terrorist to politician to wormfood, we are all equal in the soil.
Everyone except for the voters ...
https://mobile.twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/844096917323874304/photo/1
Anyway, surely you can now hedge him to be all green?
Mr. kle4, I agree. SDP2 should happen, and should've happened months ago, but Labour MPs are more interested in Labour branding than Labour values.
Be intriguing (in a "Do something, you bloody cretins!" kind of way) if Corbyn gets hammered at an election then decides to stay on as leader. What then, will you do? Where will you go?
It seems entirely obvious that, with the status quo under threat, most Brexit stories are going to be gloomy and downbeat in tone as people & vested interests worry about their future - Machiavelli's quote about a new system springs to mind.
Only the most Panglossian Brexiteers believe that it's going to be nothing but kittens and rainbows.
David Cameron: 'I don't have to listen any more to wiretaps of Donald Trump'
Former British prime minister clarifies he was not serious, as he weighs in on US presidency, Brexit and Putin’s bare chest on university speaking tour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/david-cameron-jokes-listening-trump-wiretaps