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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First polls give the French Presidential debate to Macron and

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  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Pong said:

    Julian Knight.

    Disgruntled former BBC employee-turned MP settling scores.

    Going the other way you have James Purnell, MP turned BBC employee, in yesterday's Telegraph writing that the BBC must by law be given top billing on Netflix, Amazon Fire TV, Sky Q and the like. Which is frankly bonkers as a big part of the reason people are using such services is precisely because they find the BBC's output increasingly irrelevant and poor.


  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    I miss Dave.

    David Cameron: 'I don't have to listen any more to wiretaps of Donald Trump'

    Former British prime minister clarifies he was not serious, as he weighs in on US presidency, Brexit and Putin’s bare chest on university speaking tour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/david-cameron-jokes-listening-trump-wiretaps

    He did have the occasional good line, and decent delivery.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    edited March 2017
    One exchange between Macron and Le Pen that he clearly won was over Brexit. Le Pen was saying how great it was which he countered by saying that France needs to be extremely 'rigorous' in dealing with the UK.

    He comes across much better in the highlights than he did watching it live, mainly because you don't have to see his adrenaline-induced fidgeting during the cut-aways.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,442

    What are the odds he will get backing from Jeremy Corbyn?

    Even Corbyn isn't that stupid. But you'd assume that he will run on a promise to back JC against the neo-imperialist warmongers in the Labour Party.
    Why is Galloway writing for the Westmonster?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146
    Fat_Steve said:

    George Galloway is standing in the Gorton by election.

    That will only add to Labour's woes...and to the gaiety of the nation.
    I have the impression that Gorton is a place where much of the politics is communalist in the South Asian way. Which is the type of politics that George Galloway likes. Makes it interesting. I wonder who he's spoken to.
    He probably only needs to speak to six people to get 25% of the vote....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    In all seriousness, Galloway is happy with corbyn as leader isn't he, so what's his pitch? Vote for me, the true corbyn fan, even though if I do he will be under huge pressure for losing an ultra safe seat?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. glw, if that happened, it'd be Pyrrhic. I think people are willing to grandfather in the unusual funding of the BBC, almost as a tradition. But if they try getting special treatment in new media (for example, if they wanted the licence fee extended to cover everyone with a device capable of streaming video) then people would give them pretty short shrift.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,800
    Pulpstar said:

    A good day for Northern Ireland, only when those who have embraced entirely peaceful means are in the political process can the country truly move on from its past.

    From terrorist to politician to wormfood, we are all equal in the soil.

    Comment of the day for me. We need to move on, leaving the hard men behind. Philosophy is our support.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,146

    George Galloway is standing in the Gorton by election.

    That will only add to Labour's woes...and to the gaiety of the nation.
    No. Just no.

    Galloway must lose. I don't want him back in Parliament.
    He will be a wonderful representative for Manchester....
    I would be a wonderful representative for Manchester but you really wouldn't want me as an MP
    You - or Gerald Kaufman......hmmmmmm......
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Up to a point, Lord Copper, though I fear you've missed a bit out....
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    Rather than splitting in two with the creation af SDP2 I think maybe Labour should split into multiple irreconcilable parties:
    1. Momentum/commies/SWP/Stop the war/trots and unwashed
    2. Islington luvvies/JK rowling/transgender bathrooms/this is what a feminist looks like
    3. Northern WWC remnant who aren't terribly nation minded
    4. Atom sized Scottish remnant
    5. Public sector client vote
    6. EU loving bit
    7. EU hating bit
    8. Terrorist loving bit
    9. Terrorist hating bit
    10. Blairites
    11. Brownites
    12. Gobshites
    13. Free owl tendency
    14. etc
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness, Galloway is happy with corbyn as leader isn't he, so what's his pitch? Vote for me, the true corbyn fan, even though if I do he will be under huge pressure for losing an ultra safe seat?

    It depends on who Labour select. If Galloway can portray the Labour candidate as a Blairite - and then win - Corbyn can say "we need to be more left wing".
  • Options

    George Galloway is standing in the Gorton by election.

    That will only add to Labour's woes...and to the gaiety of the nation.
    No. Just no.

    Galloway must lose. I don't want him back in Parliament.
    He will be a wonderful representative for Manchester....
    I would be a wonderful representative for Manchester but you really wouldn't want me as an MP
    You - or Gerald Kaufman......hmmmmmm......
    His fashion choices were far too boring for me.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    edited March 2017

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,
    "everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name"

    Everyone except for the voters ... :)
    You make an interesting point. In 1997 Blair realised even the name was no longer a worthwhile USP so he effectively changed it to NEW Labour.

    It's association with OLD Labour and Corbyn has very likely damaged it further. I'm certain any agency tasked with getting Labour back on it's feet would start with a complete rebranding which would inclde the name
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    dr_spyn said:
    one can only think that Corbyn is a fifth columnist dedicated to destroying Labour.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Patrick said:

    Rather than splitting in two with the creation af SDP2 I think maybe Labour should split into multiple irreconcilable parties:
    1. Momentum/commies/SWP/Stop the war/trots and unwashed
    2. Islington luvvies/JK rowling/transgender bathrooms/this is what a feminist looks like
    3. Northern WWC remnant who aren't terribly nation minded
    4. Atom sized Scottish remnant
    5. Public sector client vote
    6. EU loving bit
    7. EU hating bit
    8. Terrorist loving bit
    9. Terrorist hating bit
    10. Blairites
    11. Brownites
    12. Gobshites
    13. Free owl tendency
    14. etc

    Bravo :lol:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,442

    Fat_Steve said:

    George Galloway is standing in the Gorton by election.

    That will only add to Labour's woes...and to the gaiety of the nation.
    I have the impression that Gorton is a place where much of the politics is communalist in the South Asian way. Which is the type of politics that George Galloway likes. Makes it interesting. I wonder who he's spoken to.
    He probably only needs to speak to six people to get 25% of the vote....
    Hmm. Dunno. I doubt this comment will go down too well with some of the constituency:

    "The “All-Asian short-list” hand-picked by Keith Vaz is just not good enough for the people of Gorton"

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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Mr. glw, if that happened, it'd be Pyrrhic. I think people are willing to grandfather in the unusual funding of the BBC, almost as a tradition. But if they try getting special treatment in new media (for example, if they wanted the licence fee extended to cover everyone with a device capable of streaming video) then people would give them pretty short shrift.

    The argument seemed to be that if people know about the brilliant BBC programmes, by sticking them on the home screen of alternative services, more people will watch the brilliant BBC programmes. Whereas I suspect that a lot of people are choosing the likes of Netflix precisely because they don't think the BBC programmes are brilliant.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Patrick said:

    Rather than splitting in two with the creation af SDP2 I think maybe Labour should split into multiple irreconcilable parties:
    1. Momentum/commies/SWP/Stop the war/trots and unwashed
    2. Islington luvvies/JK rowling/transgender bathrooms/this is what a feminist looks like
    3. Northern WWC remnant who aren't terribly nation minded
    4. Atom sized Scottish remnant
    5. Public sector client vote
    6. EU loving bit
    7. EU hating bit
    8. Terrorist loving bit
    9. Terrorist hating bit
    10. Blairites
    11. Brownites
    12. Gobshites
    13. Free owl tendency
    14. etc

    Bravo :lol:
    :+1:
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,986
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    TGOHF said:

    @shippersunbound

    Lord Tebbit says McGuinness only sought peace because he was a coward and murderer who feared arrest for personally killing people.

    I don't think anyone would dispute that Lord Tebbit is entitled to his views on this subject.
    Yes but the evidence doesn't really support him though we can all understand his anger
    Colin Parry, father of the boy killed in the Warrington explosion has a different view to Lord Tebbit.
    As does Kyle Paisley, Ian P’s second son.
    All conflicts have thrown up some heroic figures. Norman Tebbit will never be one of them though no one can deny his right to feel bitter if that's hs choice.
    Would you be any different, in Tebbit's position.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,442
    Are Libs worth a punt now in Gorton? Currently 9.8 on BF.

  • Options

    Are Libs worth a punt now in Gorton? Currently 9.8 on BF.

    Yes
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited March 2017
    The populous right being 52% of the population?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    TGOHF said:

    @shippersunbound

    Lord Tebbit says McGuinness only sought peace because he was a coward and murderer who feared arrest for personally killing people.

    I don't think anyone would dispute that Lord Tebbit is entitled to his views on this subject.
    Yes but the evidence doesn't really support him though we can all understand his anger
    Colin Parry, father of the boy killed in the Warrington explosion has a different view to Lord Tebbit.
    As does Kyle Paisley, Ian P’s second son.
    All conflicts have thrown up some heroic figures. Norman Tebbit will never be one of them though no one can deny his right to feel bitter if that's hs choice.
    Would you be any different, in Tebbit's position.
    Mr Tebbit's wife was paralysed from the neck down the night of the Brighton Bomb
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,442

    dr_spyn said:
    one can only think that Corbyn is a fifth columnist dedicated to destroying Labour.
    Sort of. He is dedicated to destroying a particular version of Labour. The version that is moderate, social democratic, values parliamentary democracy and does crazy stuff like winning elections and using the power to help the poorest.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Still a large proportion are the populous right apparently.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Are Libs worth a punt now in Gorton? Currently 9.8 on BF.

    Ah, time for the traditional 'lib dem punt' which comes every by-election. OGH will be along soon hyping them up...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,986

    At one level lots of NI Unionists have a grudging respect for Martin McGuinness, though obviously his past still leaves open wounds. The whole IRA campaign was ultimately pointless in the end theirsuccess came through the ballot box not via the armalite.

    Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.

    Adams is worse, because he's much more of a liar and hypocrite.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    edited March 2017

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Funny how the losers always assume that the non-voters would break for them.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,071
    kle4 said:

    The populous right being 52% of the population?
    Manipulated by covert forces.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Still a large proportion are the populous right apparently.
    Perhaps GCHQ can produce some evidence of Putin's involvement in Brexit and Mrs May can stop Brexit.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,083
    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,
    "everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name"

    Everyone except for the voters ... :)
    You make an interesting point. In 1997 Blair realised even the name was no longer a worthwhile USP so he effectively changed it to NEW Labour.

    It's association with OLD Labour and Corbyn has very likely damaged it further. I'm certain any agency tasked with getting Labour back on it's feet would start with a complete rebranding which would inclde the name
    It might be too late. I made a BIG mistake before GE 2015 in believing there would be some unwind from the SNP to Scottish Labour. My thinking (*) is that many people vote the same way all their lives, and these core votes are hard to shift. They may make protest votes in locals or even Euros, but in a GE they'll go back.

    I was utterly, terribly and hilariously wrong.

    The current Scottish polling is terrible for SLabour: they're regressing, and not recovering. The question is whether Labour'll go the same way as SLabour.

    If there were to be a split, an important factor will be which side keeps the existing infrastructure and brand.

    (*) If it can be classed as such.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    King Cole, there are many things said about by the Daily Mail, but I'm not sure covert is one them ;)
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    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Funny how the losers always assume that the non-voters would break for them.
    That wasn't my assumption, I was raising a point of pedantry.

    Pedantry occasionally rears its head on PB.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This made me laugh re trying to solve problems...

    http://www.theonion.com/article/everyone-in-middle-east-given-own-country-in-31700-36484?utm_content=Main&utm_campaign=SF&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialMarketing

    "...“Given the incredibly complex and volatile sociopolitical landscape throughout the Middle East, a 317,000,000-state solution is the only realistic means of achieving lasting peace,” said U.N. Security Council president Eugène-Richard Gasana, noting that the treaty was reached after lengthy negotiations, which brought together each of the more than 300,000,000 independent factions. “We are pleased to finally come to an agreement that will hopefully stabilize the entire region and adequately satisfy the demands of all parties.”

    “We are confident that with every man, woman, and child possessing his or her own autonomous area of sovereignty to run as he or she sees fit, we will avoid many of the conflicts that have plagued this part of the world for centuries and left countless dead,” Gasana added. “This is a bright new future for the Middle East.”

    ..."As long as everyone respects my borders, there will be no issues,” al-Masry added. “But I am prepared to use force if there are any attempts to destabilize or infringe upon my nation.”

    At press time, reports confirmed the outbreak of more than 90,000,000 new wars across the region, with sources estimating the current death toll at approximately 700,000.
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    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    If you can't be arsed to vote, be it at a GE, strike ballot or something as earth shatteringly important as the EU referendum, then you don't count. You literally don't count.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,071
    kle4 said:

    I miss Dave.

    David Cameron: 'I don't have to listen any more to wiretaps of Donald Trump'

    Former British prime minister clarifies he was not serious, as he weighs in on US presidency, Brexit and Putin’s bare chest on university speaking tour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/david-cameron-jokes-listening-trump-wiretaps

    He did have the occasional good line, and decent delivery.
    That’s a damn’ silly line though, coming from him. What are the odds on it being picked up seriously in some quarters.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    edited March 2017
    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    First unlike Nicola Sturgeon..

    I see the grievance machine has a new "insult to Scotland" - May didn't give the Scottish government advance notice of the article 50 date so Mrs McTrump couldn't upstage her thus disrespecting Scotland...
    As we say in Scotland, Sturgeon and her team must bP HQ.





    LOL, news from around the cauldron

    At one level lots of NI Unionists have a grudging respect for Martin McGuinness, though obviously his past still leaves open wounds. The whole IRA campaign was ultimately pointless in the end theirsuccess came through the ballot box not via the armalite.

    Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.

    Alan, Do you think Westminster would ever hav echanged anything if they had not taken to the armalite , even though it was pointless. There was no hope through democracy.
    I'm with Seamus Mallon on this the GFA is Sunningdale for slow learners

    there was no need for the violence as ever the extremes needed to whip up the tension

    over 2000 people would be alive today if the slow learners could have been sent to remedial classes
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    If you can't be arsed to vote, be it at a GE, strike ballot or something as earth shatteringly important as the EU referendum, then you don't count. You literally don't count.
    Indeed, decisions are made by people who show up (and vote)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369

    JackW said:

    Martin McGuinness has died - Sky News

    Well, he was by no means Nelson Mandela, but he moved a long, long way from the ‘armed struggle”.
    That N. Ireland has, more or less, peace is due to the fsact that he and Paisley managed to work together so well.
    I think that's the balanced view that most people will take. I met him several times and IMO he was a much more convincing committed peacemaker than Gerry Adams (who has always struck me as primarily a tactician). The armed struggle was always nuts, but it had gone on at different levels forever and the rights and wrongs weren't all one on side. He and Paisley were exactly what was needed at the time.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,039



    Martin McGuinness is dead.

    Good. Fuck him.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited March 2017

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Funny how the losers always assume that the non-voters would break for them.
    That wasn't my assumption, I was raising a point of pedantry.

    Pedantry occasionally rears its head on PB.
    Always rears its head,I think you mean.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    Still a large proportion are the populous right apparently.
    Perhaps GCHQ can produce some evidence of Putin's involvement in Brexit and Mrs May can stop Brexit.
    Better be before next Wednesday. The ram has all but touched the wall.
    Sean_F said:

    At one level lots of NI Unionists have a grudging respect for Martin McGuinness, though obviously his past still leaves open wounds. The whole IRA campaign was ultimately pointless in the end theirsuccess came through the ballot box not via the armalite.

    Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.

    Adams is worse, because he's much more of a liar and hypocrite.
    Good old, never in the ira, Adams.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    King Cole, I agree. Cameron should engaged his brain before he opened his mouth.

    As a line, it's amusing. As a line from a recent Prime Minister, it's stupid.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    I'm increasingly wondering if Verhofstadt is another Tory sleeper agent deployed to make all oppositions seem at once objectionable and incapable....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    That's not actually what Corney said......he said the Kremlin 'would like to see more BREXITs' - he didn't testify that the Kremlin 'backed BREXIT' or 'wanted to destroy the EU'. All of things are possible - maybe even likely - but its not Corney's testimony....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited March 2017

    kle4 said:

    I miss Dave.

    David Cameron: 'I don't have to listen any more to wiretaps of Donald Trump'

    Former British prime minister clarifies he was not serious, as he weighs in on US presidency, Brexit and Putin’s bare chest on university speaking tour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/21/david-cameron-jokes-listening-trump-wiretaps

    He did have the occasional good line, and decent delivery.
    That’s a damn’ silly line though, coming from him. What are the odds on it being picked up seriously in some quarters.
    Oh please, he even made sure to clarify it was a joke, is he not to be allowed to joke because he's a former PM. The sort who would take that comment seriously are the sort to make stuff up if there's nothing to feed their delusions.

    (That said I can well believe gchq would tap someone and lie about it)
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Galloway standing in Gorton and Labour ripping lumps off each other

    Great day, great day.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,921
    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dura_Ace said:



    Martin McGuinness is dead.

    Good. Fuck him.

    That is the sentiment in my office today.

    Top tier of Labour wearing black armbands though
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,738
    Patrick said:

    Rather than splitting in two with the creation af SDP2 I think maybe Labour should split into multiple irreconcilable parties:
    1. Momentum/commies/SWP/Stop the war/trots and unwashed
    2. Islington luvvies/JK rowling/transgender bathrooms/this is what a feminist looks like
    3. Northern WWC remnant who aren't terribly nation minded
    4. Atom sized Scottish remnant
    5. Public sector client vote
    6. EU loving bit
    7. EU hating bit
    8. Terrorist loving bit
    9. Terrorist hating bit
    10. Blairites
    11. Brownites
    12. Gobshites
    13. Free owl tendency
    14. etc

    Out of interest, where would you place us PB Labourites in that classification?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Mortimer said:

    I'm increasingly wondering if Verhofstadt is another Tory sleeper agent deployed to make all oppositions seem at once objectionable and incapable....
    I can at least respect him for being honest sometimes - he has said leadership is about crafting and selling a vision to the public rather than merely reflecting the public and following populist policies. The eu did a poor job selling itself, partly because it acted offended it needed to, but he seems clear what he believes and is not covert about it.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    My favourite McGuinness response

    "At a meeting at Hillsborough Castle in Northern Ireland on Monday, Sinn Fein politician Martin McGuinness greeted the Queen by asking if she was well. Her reply? “Well, I’m still alive."
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
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    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    Yeah, i think they have. I've got 2 lads going through Uni, and they're fully loaded up with debt but don't see it as a problem.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,986

    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    First unlike Nicola Sturgeon..

    I see the grievance machine has a new "insult to Scotland" - May didn't give the Scottish government advance notice of the article 50 date so Mrs McTrump couldn't upstage her thus disrespecting Scotland...
    As we say in Scotland, Sturgeon and her team must bP HQ.





    LOL, news from around the cauldron

    At one level lots of NI Unionists have a grudging respect for Martin McGuinness, though obviously his past still leaves open wounds. The whole IRA campaign was ultimately pointless in the end theirsuccess came through the ballot box not via the armalite.

    Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.

    Alan, Do you think Westminster would ever hav echanged anything if they had not taken to the armalite , even though it was pointless. There was no hope through democracy.
    I'm with Seamus Mallon on this the GFA is Sunningdale for slow learners

    there was no need for the violence as ever the extremes needed to whip up the tension

    over 2000 people would be alive today if the slow learners could have been sent to remedial classes
    There are plenty of examples of political reform being achieved by peaceful means in this country, eg enfranchising the working classes and women, or decriminalising homosexuality.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    PlatoSaid said:

    My favourite McGuinness response

    "At a meeting at Hillsborough Castle in Northern Ireland on Monday, Sinn Fein politician Martin McGuinness greeted the Queen by asking if she was well. Her reply? “Well, I’m still alive."

    Loved that one!

    'Old biddy making small talk, or former terrorist taken off at the knees.....'

    Could be either...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,462

    kle4 said:

    The populous right bring 52% of the population?
    52% of those that voted, not 52% of the population.
    In that case only 48% of those wot voted are REMOANERS!

    :innocent:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    No he was probably happy about it. It need not help him, if we and the eu remain of similar mind toward him, but as an opportunity I imagine it pleased him.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,462
    Yeah, we were all manipulated into voting for Brexit by the Kremlin's evil Mind-Control Ray!!!

    :lol::lol:
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,738
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
    I was on a train passing through Gorton the other day. The view out of the window shouted Labour, not LibDem.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,921
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
    1.12 is Barcelona at home against an eastern European team in the group stage of the champions league.

    For me to bet on something at that level of certainty... I'd at least want some polling evidence...
    Plus they came 5th just two years ago!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    I think May gets the balance about right:

    https://order-order.com/2017/03/21/martin-mcguinness-dead/
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,039

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
    I was on a train passing through Gorton the other day. The view out of the window shouted Labour, not LibDem.
    Were there sufficient minarets for it to shout Galloway?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
    I was on a train passing through Gorton the other day. The view out of the window shouted Labour, not LibDem.
    I've no doubt. The honourable member for Palestine, George Galloway, hopes to change that though.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Which foreign policy aims has it enormously helped? EU resolve in sanctions in Ukraine? Defence of the Baltic States?

    I agree he has a strategic interest in weakening the unity of the EU, and you can certainly make a case that Brexit has contributed to that, but I don't see the evidence for "enormously" helped.

    Alternatively, you could argue a European Army and more united foreign policy is more like to proceed post-Brexit, and the EU was drastically underfunding its military beforehand.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,

    I am not so sure about that anymore. For the first time I think a split is possible - though still not likely. The far left's determination to kill off Labour as a party that might ever veer back towards the centre is such that it will never surrender its current leadership control voluntarily and following Lansman's recent revelations it is now clear that McCluskey is not the pragmatist I thought he was. This makes it less likely that Corbyn will be engineered out. If the McDonnell amendment passes and the membership select another far left MP to replace Corbyn, I can't see Labour surviving in its present form. Should there be a split, it will not just involve MPs but some unions too.

    I believe Watson is sincere in believing that Labour's future is now at stake. And I think he is right.

    It is going to be interesting.

    And while all this is happening, the UK has no opposition to hold the government to account, We will all end up paying for that.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    King Cole, I agree. Cameron should engaged his brain before he opened his mouth.

    As a line, it's amusing. As a line from a recent Prime Minister, it's stupid.

    i don't agree I think its very funny..
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    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    We know, Alastair, we know. Brexit is horrible.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Mortimer said:

    I'm increasingly wondering if Verhofstadt is another Tory sleeper agent deployed to make all oppositions seem at once objectionable and incapable....
    His role is to be the EU dickhead, something he's naturally very good at.

    If you're a Remainer, you could say he's the pro-EU equivalent of Farage.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I'm curious where the death of McGuinness will take SinnFein/IRA/Republicans. It seems he was committed to politics but I wonder if there's a danger that less moderate people will now have more influence.

    And for the record I couldn't care less he's dead.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    What a prosaic thread header. On World Poetry Day I had hoped this morning's article would be in verse.
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    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,
    "everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name"

    Everyone except for the voters ... :)
    You make an interesting point. In 1997 Blair realised even the name was no longer a worthwhile USP so he effectively changed it to NEW Labour.

    It's association with OLD Labour and Corbyn has very likely damaged it further. I'm certain any agency tasked with getting Labour back on it's feet would start with a complete rebranding which would inclde the name
    It might be too late. I made a BIG mistake before GE 2015 in believing there would be some unwind from the SNP to Scottish Labour. My thinking (*) is that many people vote the same way all their lives, and these core votes are hard to shift. They may make protest votes in locals or even Euros, but in a GE they'll go back.

    I was utterly, terribly and hilariously wrong.

    The current Scottish polling is terrible for SLabour: they're regressing, and not recovering. The question is whether Labour'll go the same way as SLabour.

    If there were to be a split, an important factor will be which side keeps the existing infrastructure and brand.

    (*) If it can be classed as such.
    What's keeping Labour just about going in England is the lack of an English version of the SNP.

    Does anybody think that an English SNP (patriotism mixed with social democracy) would be possible to create? Or is that just 'Blue Labour'?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,738
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    isam said:

    Just looked at Betfair to back the Lib Dems... mistakenly looked at the 'betting wo Labour" market & ended up laying them at 1.12!

    Good bet/bad bet?

    I can't see why they are so favoured. They did dreadfully last time - have students really forgiven then for tuition fees?
    It's the theory. I think the favouring is just because if anyone other than lab is to get it, it would to be them, so as lab are down give it a shot. I think the lab vote will hold up here though.
    I was on a train passing through Gorton the other day. The view out of the window shouted Labour, not LibDem.
    Were there sufficient minarets for it to shout Galloway?
    I could see a church, if that is a guide to voting intention.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    We know, Alastair, we know. Brexit is horrible.
    I'll put you in the second category then.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Roger said:

    A shot across the bows of the Brexit Bashing Corporation:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39335904

    From the article.......

    "The (72) MPs warned the future of the BBC "will be in doubt" if it is not seen as a impartial broker".

    Tory MPs threatening and bullying the BBC ........

    Please don't ever change or you might become likeable

    Report things in the way that we want or else. Straight out of the Trump and Putin playbook. No surprise.

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    My own impressions from Manchester, that voted Remain, Corbyn really has pissed off the fan base by giving Mrs May a free pass on Brexit.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Roger said:

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,
    "everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name"

    Everyone except for the voters ... :)
    You make an interesting point. In 1997 Blair realised even the name was no longer a worthwhile USP so he effectively changed it to NEW Labour.

    It's association with OLD Labour and Corbyn has very likely damaged it further. I'm certain any agency tasked with getting Labour back on it's feet would start with a complete rebranding which would inclde the name
    It might be too late. I made a BIG mistake before GE 2015 in believing there would be some unwind from the SNP to Scottish Labour. My thinking (*) is that many people vote the same way all their lives, and these core votes are hard to shift. They may make protest votes in locals or even Euros, but in a GE they'll go back.

    I was utterly, terribly and hilariously wrong.

    The current Scottish polling is terrible for SLabour: they're regressing, and not recovering. The question is whether Labour'll go the same way as SLabour.

    If there were to be a split, an important factor will be which side keeps the existing infrastructure and brand.

    (*) If it can be classed as such.
    One of my relations - now in his 80s - in the last 15 years he's moved support from SLAB to SNP and recently to SCON !!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    My own impressions from Manchester, that voted Remain, Corbyn really has pissed off the fan base by giving Mrs May a free pass on Brexit.

    Gorton has quite a big student population, does it not? It's quite a big test for the Lib Dems given that the Tories and Ukip won't do any good.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,083

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Which foreign policy aims has it enormously helped? EU resolve in sanctions in Ukraine? Defence of the Baltic States?

    I agree he has a strategic interest in weakening the unity of the EU, and you can certainly make a case that Brexit has contributed to that, but I don't see the evidence for "enormously" helped.

    Alternatively, you could argue a European Army and more united foreign policy is more like to proceed post-Brexit, and the EU was drastically underfunding its military beforehand.
    But that only works with political unity, and the EU without the UK is significantly weakened in political and military terms. Also from Putin's POV it is disruptive, and whilst the EU and UK are negotiating Brexit - perhaps rancorously - they'll have less resources and time to spend on Russia's actions.

    As ever you have to look at what people want. What does Russia (i.e. Putin) want?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Roger said:

    A shot across the bows of the Brexit Bashing Corporation:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39335904

    From the article.......

    "The (72) MPs warned the future of the BBC "will be in doubt" if it is not seen as a impartial broker".

    Tory MPs threatening and bullying the BBC ........

    Please don't ever change or you might become likeable

    Report things in the way that we want or else. Straight out of the Trump and Putin playbook. No surprise.

    Because the BBC is completely impartial .........
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    tlg86 said:

    My own impressions from Manchester, that voted Remain, Corbyn really has pissed off the fan base by giving Mrs May a free pass on Brexit.

    Gorton has quite a big student population, does it not? It's quite a big test for the Lib Dems given that the Tories and Ukip won't do any good.
    It does.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. We must be close to the point where SDP Mark 2 becomes a reality.

    Now that we're faced with Watson and McCusky locking horns I can't think of any scenario where Labour could look less attractive to their voters. They'd have two years to get their act together


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39334657

    SDP Mark 2 will never happen. Tussling with unite aside, and apparently Watson lacks support on this, everyone still seems religiously devoted to the labour name, even if it represents something they do not and perhaps might not again.those that cannot tough it out seem inclined ed to just give up rather than fight,

    I am not so sure about that anymore. For the first time I think a split is possible - though still not likely. The far left's determination to kill off Labour as a party that might ever veer back towards the centre is such that it will never surrender its current leadership control voluntarily and following Lansman's recent revelations it is now clear that McCluskey is not the pragmatist I thought he was. This makes it less likely that Corbyn will be engineered out. If the McDonnell amendment passes and the membership select another far left MP to replace Corbyn, I can't see Labour surviving in its present form. Should there be a split, it will not just involve MPs but some unions too.

    I believe Watson is sincere in believing that Labour's future is now at stake. And I think he is right.

    It is going to be interesting.

    And while all this is happening, the UK has no opposition to hold the government to account, We will all end up paying for that.

    Hopefully not.

    As for labour, maybe it won't be as bad as it looks, but if it is, those idiots who nominated corbyn to widen the debate, ignoring the intent of the rule they had agreed, have a lot to answer for, though in fairness it would ultimately be the members own fault. If someone opens a door for you it's still your responsibility If you walk through it.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Which foreign policy aims has it enormously helped? EU resolve in sanctions in Ukraine? Defence of the Baltic States?

    I agree he has a strategic interest in weakening the unity of the EU, and you can certainly make a case that Brexit has contributed to that, but I don't see the evidence for "enormously" helped.

    Alternatively, you could argue a European Army and more united foreign policy is more like to proceed post-Brexit, and the EU was drastically underfunding its military beforehand.

    If Trump as President forces more Nato members to pay the full 2% that certainly won't help Putin.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. Jessop, you were far from alone. Indeed, I remember rather regretting not following Mr. Calum's stonkingly good 125/1 tip on Labour seats (or lack thereof) north of the border.

    Mr. Rob, it's entirely possible for such a party to exist. Whether it will or not, is another matter.

    Mr. Choose, that was my thinking too. McGuinness might also have had more respect from young hotheads because of his own past. Newer politicians who have only been involved in that side of things might have less.

    Mr. Root, something can be amusing, but still foolish.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Which foreign policy aims has it enormously helped? EU resolve in sanctions in Ukraine? Defence of the Baltic States?

    I agree he has a strategic interest in weakening the unity of the EU, and you can certainly make a case that Brexit has contributed to that, but I don't see the evidence for "enormously" helped.

    Alternatively, you could argue a European Army and more united foreign policy is more like to proceed post-Brexit, and the EU was drastically underfunding its military beforehand.
    You don't think that having Britain at the throats of the rest of the EU (and vice versa) for years to come, arguing introspectively among themselves indefinitely, isn't good for Russia?

    ooooooo-kay...

    In the meantime, Russian influence in the Balkans in the last few months has grown rapidly.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    As ever you have to look at what people want. What does Russia (i.e. Putin) want?

    Right now Nato is making some quite large deployments to eastern Europe. Putin's not winning.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Floater said:

    Roger said:

    A shot across the bows of the Brexit Bashing Corporation:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39335904

    From the article.......

    "The (72) MPs warned the future of the BBC "will be in doubt" if it is not seen as a impartial broker".

    Tory MPs threatening and bullying the BBC ........

    Please don't ever change or you might become likeable

    Report things in the way that we want or else. Straight out of the Trump and Putin playbook. No surprise.

    Because the BBC is completely impartial .........
    It tries, and does not always reach that standard. Moaning snowflakes who almost certainly greet every bit of news about the BBC with 'lets take away the licence fee' no matter how trivial an issue, are poorly placed to make that argument, and undermine genuine criticism when their motivations are usually overtly 'we don't like the reporting'.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Does anyone think Putin would be unhappy about Scottish independence?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    Mortimer said:

    I'm increasingly wondering if Verhofstadt is another Tory sleeper agent deployed to make all oppositions seem at once objectionable and incapable....
    If you're a Remainer, you could say he's the pro-EU equivalent of Farage.
    Seems like an apt analogy.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,083
    Cyan said:

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Does anyone think Putin would be unhappy about Scottish independence?
    A good start to beating an enemy is to divide them.
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    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    We know, Alastair, we know. Brexit is horrible.
    I'll put you in the second category then.
    Put me where you want, fella.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyan said:

    Does anyone really think that Vladimir Putin was unhappy about Brexit? Or is it just that they are annoyed that other people noticed that it enormously helps Russia's foreign policy aims?

    Does anyone think Putin would be unhappy about Scottish independence?
    I'm sure he wouldn't.

    But it's noteworthy that Britain's Putin-fanboys are found almost exclusively on the unhinged Brexit right. I'm sure that's just a curious coincidence.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    First unlike Nicola Sturgeon..

    I see the grievance machine has a new "insult to Scotland" - May didn't give the Scottish government advance notice of the article 50 date so Mrs McTrump couldn't upstage her thus disrespecting Scotland...
    As we say in Scotland, Sturgeon and her team must bP HQ.

    LOL, news from around the cauldron

    At

    Personally I'll be concerned to see him go as he was in some ways sincere about making life better in NI. Leaving the reins in Gerry Adams hands is one huge retrograde step.

    Alan, Do you think Westminster would ever hav echanged anything if they had not taken to the armalite , even though it was pointless. There was no hope through democracy.
    I'm with Seamus Mallon on this the GFA is Sunningdale for slow learners

    there was no need for the violence as ever the extremes needed to whip up the tension

    over 2000 people would be alive today if the slow learners could have been sent to remedial classes
    There are plenty of examples of political reform being achieved by peaceful means in this country, eg enfranchising the working classes and women, or decriminalising homosexuality.
    My view on this is quite simple: I think Northern Irish Catholics had a genuine grievance at how the province was run in the 1960s (and beforehand) where discrimination and bigotry was rife. They were perfectly justified in campaigning and marching vociferously for their civil rights, and for far-reaching reform. And I believe they would have got it: it was achieved peacefully around the world during that decade, and the decades that followed, not least of which in the United States, and South Africa.

    But the terrorist campaign in pursuit of a United Ireland was the worst form of crime. Their objective never commanded majority support in Northern Ireland and it was an anti-democratic attempt to force the issue by the bomb and bullet and force the British to leave. Thousands die (futilely) for it, many horrifically murdered, and many more were maimed or punished. The economy of the province was set back decades.

    Whilst one can only breathe a sigh of relief that the murderers and commanders eventually came to the table (when they realised their armed campaign was unwinnable) that does not excuse or forgive any of their actions, for which they deserve - and still deserve - to answer for and I hold them completely accountable for what they did.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,013
    Mr. Meeks, how civil or otherwise the negotiations are depends on the parties negotiating.

    Annoying Russia is no argument for staying in the EU.
This discussion has been closed.