Andy Street, as good a candidate as he might be even with Labour's weakness should not be 1-2 for the West Midlands Mayoralty. If you were looking at a basket of these seats in a General Election, that might be right - but mayoralties can to some extent present themselves as apart from toxic Corbyn for Labour.
Consequently, Sion Simon is today's recommendation at 7-4 with Ladbrokes. He should be Evens at the most.
Edit: Thanks to @Tissue_Price for his posts the other day showing precisely why this is value.
Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.
Pure 22nd June thinking.
Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.
That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.
In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:
1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive. 2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.) 3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA. 4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).
Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
The MHRA - MCA as was is a primary member of the EMA and its standards are widely admired. I don't disagree that remaining part of the EMA would be advantageous but leaving wouldn't be a disaster.
One problem is that unless we have identcal standrads and information requirements as one of the ‘big boys’ we are going to be down the queue when it comes to new medicines.
There’s also an issue about people losing their jobs in the interim, and the general disruption that will follow. There will also be Brits deciding their future is with the big organisation and consequently a small but potentially damaging brain drain.
I think the EMA is based in London. The MHRA has huge input to the ICH process and its views are respected. ICH forces harmonisation across regulatory authorities.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.
Pure 22nd June thinking.
Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.
That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.
In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:
1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive. 2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.) 3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA. 4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).
Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
In many instances the Commission will remain our de facto anti-trust enforcement body.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
Some joke
From the article
The picture, a mocked up Tintin book cover entitled “Tintin and the Brexit Plan” became a social media meme earlier this year among remain supporters.
The image reflects the view among many top EU officials that Brexit is an act of economic self-harm by the UK that will become apparent in the course of the negotiations.
Many top EU officials and political leaders still hope that Britain might yet decide to think again about Brexit when confronted by the economic trade-offs that come with leaving the EU Single Market and rejecting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
“If the ship is sinking, is it not only natural to call for rescue?” said one senior EU diplomatic source. “We are still not giving up hope that the United Kingdom decides not to leave us.”
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
Some joke
From the article
The picture, a mocked up Tintin book cover entitled “Tintin and the Brexit Plan” became a social media meme earlier this year among remain supporters.
The image reflects the view among many top EU officials that Brexit is an act of economic self-harm by the UK that will become apparent in the course of the negotiations.
Many top EU officials and political leaders still hope that Britain might yet decide to think again about Brexit when confronted by the economic trade-offs that come with leaving the EU Single Market and rejecting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
“If the ship is sinking, is it not only natural to call for rescue?” said one senior EU diplomatic source. “We are still not giving up hope that the United Kingdom decides not to leave us.”
Yes, it's a joke.
I appreciate that Brexiters think that Boris Johnson talking about World War Two punishment beatings is amusing, but adapted mock-ups of cartoons are more widely thought of as jokes, yes.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
If Corbyn loses Manchester Gorton, it will be like the EdStone. A classic vignette of a hopeless leadership. Will Con gain Bootle with a split leftwing vote?!
It's inconceivable that they will lose Gorton. If they do, they might be in trouble. I suggest they will still get 45% of vote. We need Jezza to hold on.
Have the Tories selected a candidate for Gorton yet?
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
Some joke
From the article
The picture, a mocked up Tintin book cover entitled “Tintin and the Brexit Plan” became a social media meme earlier this year among remain supporters.
The image reflects the view among many top EU officials that Brexit is an act of economic self-harm by the UK that will become apparent in the course of the negotiations.
Many top EU officials and political leaders still hope that Britain might yet decide to think again about Brexit when confronted by the economic trade-offs that come with leaving the EU Single Market and rejecting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
“If the ship is sinking, is it not only natural to call for rescue?” said one senior EU diplomatic source. “We are still not giving up hope that the United Kingdom decides not to leave us.”
Yes, it's a joke.
I appreciate that Brexiters think that Boris Johnson talking about World War Two punishment beatings is amusing, but adapted mock-ups of cartoons are more widely thought of as jokes, yes.
Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)
The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.
That was my money you took at 25.
Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.
Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.
Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
You may have got some value off me there! But I'd much rather be on at 12 w/o Labour than 25 all-in :-) When participants get added to Betfair markets the initial prices are often a reflection of existing participants' books as much as their true chance: there's no way those two prices were mutually compatible!
Hopefully we will both get some value. I would concur that 12/1 w/o Labour is easily the better bet.
If Corbyn loses Manchester Gorton, it will be like the EdStone. A classic vignette of a hopeless leadership. Will Con gain Bootle with a split leftwing vote?!
It's inconceivable that they will lose Gorton. If they do, they might be in trouble. I suggest they will still get 45% of vote. We need Jezza to hold on.
Have the Tories selected a candidate for Gorton yet?
I haven't seen any info. on it. CCHQ are focussing on Scotland and West Midlands. Shires at local elections will look after themselves. Gorton will get no help.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Andy Street, as good a candidate as he might be even with Labour's weakness should not be 1-2 for the West Midlands Mayoralty. If you were looking at a basket of these seats in a General Election, that might be right - but mayoralties can to some extent present themselves as apart from toxic Corbyn for Labour.
Consequently, Sion Simon is today's recommendation at 7-4 with Ladbrokes. He should be Evens at the most.
Edit: Thanks to @Tissue_Price for his posts the other day showing precisely why this is value.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
What about this then?
That would certainly pay for lashings of Ginger Beer.
When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
We already are. There was a report last week that the number of EU personnel in the health service is in rapid decline. It seems that they are returning to the Mother-Ship
When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
We already are. There was a report last week that the number of EU personnel in the health service is in rapid decline. It seems that they are returning to the Mother-Ship
It's how immigration will be brought under control. Highflyers will be put off by the unwelcoming attitude that xenophobic Leavers give off and by the lower wages offered by Britain post-devaluation.
Of course, more humble immigrants won't be put off by such things nearly so much. They can't afford to be so picky.
When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
We already are. There was a report last week that the number of EU personnel in the health service is in rapid decline. It seems that they are returning to the Mother-Ship
It's how immigration will be brought under control. Highflyers will be put off by the unwelcoming attitude that xenophobic Leavers give off and by the lower wages offered by Britain post-devaluation.
Of course, more humble immigrants won't be put off by such things nearly so much. They can't afford to be so picky.
I note this somewhat contradicts @Casino_Royale take on the subject.
"I think it will move to higher-skilled mix with the quotas/types debated"
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
What about this then?
That would certainly pay for lashings of Ginger Beer.
And bully-beef sandwiches? Made by Anne of course because in 1957 Mk.II boys will not do kitchen stuff.
Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
Heaven forbid that anyone should crack a joke.
What about this then?
That would certainly pay for lashings of Ginger Beer.
And bully-beef sandwiches? Made by Anne of course because in 1957 Mk.II boys will not do kitchen stuff.
I remember the Comic Strip version better than the original.
When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
We already are. There was a report last week that the number of EU personnel in the health service is in rapid decline. It seems that they are returning to the Mother-Ship
It's how immigration will be brought under control. Highflyers will be put off by the unwelcoming attitude that xenophobic Leavers give off and by the lower wages offered by Britain post-devaluation.
Of course, more humble immigrants won't be put off by such things nearly so much. They can't afford to be so picky.
I note this somewhat contradicts @Casino_Royale take on the subject.
"I think it will move to higher-skilled mix with the quotas/types debated"
The numbers and types will be decided by HMG through Parliament. What we will get is what they decide and if we do not like then there is a GE every few years.
As an aside when I have worked abroad outside the EU I was never offered permanent residency and a chance to naturalise as a citizen of the country. I had a work permit to do a particular job with my employer (sometimes the host nation's government) obliged to find my accommodation, health care etc. and return flight to the UK. If I had lost my job then I would have been kicked out of the country very quickly. I see no reason why a similar system should not work very well in the UK.
I note this somewhat contradicts @Casino_Royale take on the subject.
"I think it will move to higher-skilled mix with the quotas/types debated"
It is across the spectrum. From nurses and doctors to veggie pickers. From the FT...
Farmers are warning of a labour crisis on the land after a sharp fall in the number of seasonal workers — overwhelmingly from the EU — willing to pick vegetables on Britain’s farms.
Almost half the companies providing agricultural labour said they were unable to fulfil the horticultural sector’s demand for workers between July and September, according to a survey by the National Farmers Union.
Corbyn's call for unity in the Labour movement doesn't seem to be entirely effective:
There is another world in our movement, alas. A world of skulduggery, smears and secret plots.
That is where you will find Tom Watson. When Labour has needed loyalty he has been sharpening his knife looking for a back to stab. When unity is required, he manufactures division.
It is small surprise that he has then worked to split the Party again this week. He has form as long as his arm. And now his sights are set on abusing the internal democracy of Unite.
This weekend the clocks go forward an hour, next Wednesday we put the clock back fifty or sixty years.
We must be mad, literally mad.
It is not "mad" to leave the European Union, and nor is it putting back the clock fifty years. This is about the future.
As you yourself were also saying on here about 15 months ago, when you were also flirting with Leave.
I think leaving is a terrible, terrible mistake. The only thing that moves the dial on the matter are the ongoing pronouncements from Junker, who is doing a sterling one-man job of shoring up the weak leavers and shifting over a few wavering remainers.
Mr Farage will be sending him a Christmas card this year, I feel.
Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)
The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.
That was my money you took at 25.
Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.
Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.
Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.
My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.
52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.
Or if it had been 52/48 Remain!!
Does anyone seriolusly believe that if it had been 52/48 Remain Farage and co would not have stomping round the country shouting "one more heave’?
They would have been doing just that , but they wouldn't have had the ability to delay or influence the result once the verdict was in.
No one is saying that if a govt is elected w a manifesto for another ref they can't do it
That’s why Farron is right to call for a further referendum when we know what the proposals are. When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
As the end of the 2 year period approaches, a second referendum will get more traction. No one voted to be poorer.
Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)
The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.
That was my money you took at 25.
Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.
Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.
Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
LD's are going to win. Easily.
As Tim Farron said last Sunday:
"All you generals without armies, here’s your army. You want a vehicle. Get on board. You want a movement. Move. Stop waiting for something to happen. Join us and make something happen."
Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)
The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.
That was my money you took at 25.
Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.
Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.
Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
LD's are going to win. Easily.
As Tim Farron said last Sunday:
"All you generals without armies, here’s your army. You want a vehicle. Get on board. You want a movement. Move. Stop waiting for something to happen. Join us and make something happen."
He also said:
"Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. She made a choice. Not to hang her head in despair, but to do something about it. She joined the Liberal Democrats. Today, she is the Member of Parliament for Richmond Park. It doesn’t always happen like that. It took me a bit longer. But Sarah Olney exemplifies the best way to respond to the nationalist nightmare."
Comments
Andy Street, as good a candidate as he might be even with Labour's weakness should not be 1-2 for the West Midlands Mayoralty. If you were looking at a basket of these seats in a General Election, that might be right - but mayoralties can to some extent present themselves as apart from toxic Corbyn for Labour.
Consequently, Sion Simon is today's recommendation at 7-4 with Ladbrokes. He should be Evens at the most.
Edit: Thanks to @Tissue_Price for his posts the other day showing precisely why this is value.
From the article
The picture, a mocked up Tintin book cover entitled “Tintin and the Brexit Plan” became a social media meme earlier this year among remain supporters.
The image reflects the view among many top EU officials that Brexit is an act of economic self-harm by the UK that will become apparent in the course of the negotiations.
Many top EU officials and political leaders still hope that Britain might yet decide to think again about Brexit when confronted by the economic trade-offs that come with leaving the EU Single Market and rejecting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
“If the ship is sinking, is it not only natural to call for rescue?” said one senior EU diplomatic source. “We are still not giving up hope that the United Kingdom decides not to leave us.”
A bit of a 'fog in channel' scenario.
I appreciate that Brexiters think that Boris Johnson talking about World War Two punishment beatings is amusing, but adapted mock-ups of cartoons are more widely thought of as jokes, yes.
That is quite funny I think.
Revealed: London boroughs with highest rate of flashers and voyeurs https://t.co/39W8FqxFf6
Of course, more humble immigrants won't be put off by such things nearly so much. They can't afford to be so picky.
"I think it will move to higher-skilled mix with the quotas/types debated"
http://images.dailystar.co.uk/dynamic/1/photos/305000/620x/grimsby-388614.jpg
We must be mad, literally mad.
As an aside when I have worked abroad outside the EU I was never offered permanent residency and a chance to naturalise as a citizen of the country. I had a work permit to do a particular job with my employer (sometimes the host nation's government) obliged to find my accommodation, health care etc. and return flight to the UK. If I had lost my job then I would have been kicked out of the country very quickly. I see no reason why a similar system should not work very well in the UK.
NEW THREAD
It is across the spectrum. From nurses and doctors to veggie pickers. From the FT... https://www.ft.com/content/7ceb876c-b58d-11e6-961e-a1acd97f622d
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxY9rZwNGU
As you yourself were also saying on here about 15 months ago, when you were also flirting with Leave.
There is another world in our movement, alas. A world of skulduggery, smears and secret plots.
That is where you will find Tom Watson. When Labour has needed loyalty he has been sharpening his knife looking for a back to stab. When unity is required, he manufactures division.
It is small surprise that he has then worked to split the Party again this week. He has form as long as his arm. And now his sights are set on abusing the internal democracy of Unite.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/len-mccluskey/tom-watson-len-mccluskey_b_15511506.html?1490096318&
Mr Farage will be sending him a Christmas card this year, I feel.
"All you generals without armies, here’s your army. You want a vehicle. Get on board. You want a movement. Move. Stop waiting for something to happen. Join us and make something happen."
"Let me tell you about a friend of mine. She woke up the day after the 2015 election, heartbroken that fear and division had won. She made a choice. Not to hang her head in despair, but to do something about it. She joined the Liberal Democrats. Today, she is the Member of Parliament for Richmond Park. It doesn’t always happen like that. It took me a bit longer. But Sarah Olney exemplifies the best way to respond to the nationalist nightmare."
Game on.