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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    kle4 said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    There is an argument that thresholds are a good idea for such monumental decisions. Some countries have them, some don't. Unfortunately we never agreed to that beforehand, or on other votes, so its hard for us to have them in future.
    Thresholds cause problems of their own. Justifiably, supporters of Scottish devolution felt they were robbed in 1979, and this caused a good deal of resentment in years to come.

    My guess is that if the same 40% share of the electorate had been fixed this time, supporters of Brexit would now be furious, and UKIP would be riding high.
  • Mr. Observer, we were split before. The difference is that the best the plebs could do was lambast Mary Beard on Question Time for not understanding the real concerns of people in Grimsby at mass migration [only use that example because it stuck in my mind for some reason].

    Incidentally, if we hadn't had a vote (and the referendum was entirely voluntary) this would not have gone away. UKIP or a comparable new party would've gained ever increasing popularity, but doing so takes a long time under our system. In the interim, the political and media class would've embedded us ever deeper in the EU and bitterness would have still grown.

    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    I'm not saying that *will* happen, only that it can. But it requires people to accept the result, and that other people have very different views about the country, but that's a feature, not a bug, of democracy.

    Millions of plebs voted to Remain. Millions who voted Leave may end up feeling betrayed if the swivel-eyed right gets the cliff-edge departure it so craves. We need leadership that values conciliation and collaboration to take us forward. We don't have it.

    I agree entirely, but the key question is- Who in the house of commons, in any party is going to offer that leadership? Starmer? Osborne? Farron? I just don't know where it is going to come from. Bleak times indeed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    isam said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    Or if it had been 52/48 Remain!!
    Does anyone seriolusly believe that if it had been 52/48 Remain Farage and co would not have stomping round the country shouting "one more heave’?
    Well... just look north of the border. The result was 55/45 which is a bigger margin than Brexit
    But the Nats are EU Fan-boys (and -girls)!!!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    Georgey Porgy makes Betfair !

    I've just been laying Labour for £1872 risking £250. I win if GG or LDs or anyone else does it

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, but at whose expense? Would the purples be eating the reds alive?

    Yes. But the Tories wouldn't be over 40% either.

    Tories 37
    Labour 28
    UKIP 20
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    is my estimate of where we'd be at the moment if there had been a "Remain" vote.
    Take 5 off the Tories and give it to UKIP
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    Fangirl, perhaps.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    isam said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    Or if it had been 52/48 Remain!!
    Does anyone seriolusly believe that if it had been 52/48 Remain Farage and co would not have stomping round the country shouting "one more heave’?
    Dave's deal would now be receiving the scrutiny that it didn't receive during the campaign. Whether it would have held up under pressure is another matter but I think the Tories would be fighting like rats in a sack.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Rather than splitting in two with the creation af SDP2 I think maybe Labour should split into multiple irreconcilable parties:
    1. Momentum/commies/SWP/Stop the war/trots and unwashed
    2. Islington luvvies/JK rowling/transgender bathrooms/this is what a feminist looks like
    3. Northern WWC remnant who aren't terribly nation minded
    4. Atom sized Scottish remnant
    5. Public sector client vote
    6. EU loving bit
    7. EU hating bit
    8. Terrorist loving bit
    9. Terrorist hating bit
    10. Blairites
    11. Brownites
    12. Gobshites
    13. Free owl tendency
    14. etc

    Out of interest, where would you place us PB Labourites in that classification?
    Different categories for different PB lefties. You I'd place in the Watermelon group.
    Thanks Patrick. I guess some others would try and stick me down as a No.7

    Is there such a thing as a reverse-watermellon?
    You mean a greenie at heart but who presents themselves as a commie? That's not really you is it? You seem to me to be a well intentioned soft lefty with a strong eco passion - but alot more sensible than many on matters EU. So a slightly unusual combination!
    I was thinking reverse-watermellon as someone who is a member of the Labour Party but finds a closer affinity with the policies of the Green Party and cares more about environmental issues than GDP. Of course, such a person would never actually vote for a Green Party candidate, as that could see them expelled from the Labour Party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    There is an argument that thresholds are a good idea for such monumental decisions. Some countries have them, some don't. Unfortunately we never agreed to that beforehand, or on other votes, so its hard for us to have them in future.
    Thresholds cause problems of their own. Justifiably, supporters of Scottish devolution felt they were robbed in 1979, and this caused a good deal of resentment in years to come.

    My guess is that if the same 40% share of the electorate had been fixed this time, supporters of Brexit would now be furious, and UKIP would be riding high.
    It's not perfect either way, admittedly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    edited March 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Georgey Porgy makes Betfair !

    I've just been laying Labour for £1872 risking £250. I win if GG or LDs or anyone else does it

    :> :+1:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    Or if it had been 52/48 Remain!!
    Does anyone seriolusly believe that if it had been 52/48 Remain Farage and co would not have stomping round the country shouting "one more heave’?
    They would have been doing just that , but they wouldn't have had the ability to delay or influence the result once the verdict was in.

    No one is saying that if a govt is elected w a manifesto for another ref they can't do it
    That’s why Farron is right to call for a further referendum when we know what the proposals are.
    When it abundantly clear that, far from giving the NHS £350m, we will, in the short-term at least be running short of doctors, nurses and porters. For example.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    edited March 2017
    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    Or if it had been 52/48 Remain!!
    Does anyone seriolusly believe that if it had been 52/48 Remain Farage and co would not have stomping round the country shouting "one more heave’?
    They would have been doing just that , but they wouldn't have had the ability to delay or influence the result once the verdict was in.

    No one is saying that if a govt is elected w a manifesto for another ref they can't do it
    Well, some people are near to calling people traitors for potentially seeking such an option, but as unpopular as it would be you're right they could totally do it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Patrick said:

    ... June 23rd was a massive reconciliation moment. Your comment appears to be saying that the majority view is too awful and we need to find a way of once again ignoring it.

    My problem with the "majority view" is that it is barely the majority view. If the result had been 60/40 or 70/30 for LEAVE then I would have an easier time accepting it.

    52/48 is virtually half 'n' half. I feel like we decided on a rash course of action on the toss of a coin.

    There is an argument that thresholds are a good idea for such monumental decisions. Some countries have them, some don't. Unfortunately we never agreed to that beforehand, or on other votes, so its hard for us to have them in future.
    Thresholds cause problems of their own. Justifiably, supporters of Scottish devolution felt they were robbed in 1979, and this caused a good deal of resentment in years to come.

    My guess is that if the same 40% share of the electorate had been fixed this time, supporters of Brexit would now be furious, and UKIP would be riding high.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    King Cole, if such a referendum were held and Remain (under what terms?) won, it'd only heighten division and bitterness.

    It'd also encourage the EU to offer us the worst possible deal, knowing that the more dreadful the terms, the better the chance we end up backing down.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    I think the policy advocated by "EU-fanboys" in the Ukraine is more dangerous the mutterings of "Putin fanboys".

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.

    32 might still be too high. Cameron was down to about 34 during the referendum campaign. I reckon we might have had an outlier with UKIP in the lead by now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Patrick said:

    Mr. Observer, we were split before. The difference is that the best the plebs could do was lambast Mary Beard on Question Time for not understanding the real concerns of people in Grimsby at mass migration [only use that example because it stuck in my mind for some reason].

    Incidentally, if we hadn't had a vote (and the referendum was entirely voluntary) this would not have gone away. UKIP or a comparable new party would've gained ever increasing popularity, but doing so takes a long time under our system. In the interim, the political and media class would've embedded us ever deeper in the EU and bitterness would have still grown.

    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    I'm not saying that *will* happen, only that it can. But it requires people to accept the result, and that other people have very different views about the country, but that's a feature, not a bug, of democracy.

    Millions of plebs voted to Remain. Millions who voted Leave may end up feeling betrayed if the swivel-eyed right gets the cliff-edge departure it so craves. We need leadership that values conciliation and collaboration to take us forward. We don't have it.
    Translation: We need to leave technically but not actually.

    I do not give a toss about whether we leave the EU, my concern is the damage leaving the Single Market and Customs Union will do if we do not get a sensible agreement.

  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Pulpstar said:

    Georgey Porgy makes Betfair !

    I've just been laying Labour for £1872 risking £250. I win if GG or LDs or anyone else does it

    Done exactly the same, for a similar amount Mike.

    GG does have a chance of winning, but the most likely effect of him entering the race is to take a substantial amount of votes from Labour, thus lowering the bar for the Yellows.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I'm not sure which is more sick-making: Corbyn's 'great family man' comment, or Blair's characteristically emetic Today interview.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)

    The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    There isn't a going to be a nation, in the sense of the United Kingdom we know now, to unite. The bullshit can't be put back in the bull now. It's when not if for Scotland and how not if for Northern Ireland.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891

    I'm not sure which is more sick-making: Corbyn's 'great family man' comment, or Blair's characteristically emetic Today interview.

    Dodds' interview on Radio 5 Live this morning was the correct tone.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.

    where is this from? Not recent?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Dixie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.

    where is this from? Not recent?
    These are hypotheticals on the basis of a 52-48 Remain win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    Dixie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.

    where is this from? Not recent?
    Hypothetical counterfactual with a remain vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Dixie, panic ye not, it's a theoretical of what if Remain had won.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. Observer, we were split before. The difference is that the best the plebs could do was lambast Mary Beard on Question Time for not understanding the real concerns of people in Grimsby at mass migration [only use that example because it stuck in my mind for some reason].

    Incidentally, if we hadn't had a vote (and the referendum was entirely voluntary) this would not have gone away. UKIP or a comparable new party would've gained ever increasing popularity, but doing so takes a long time under our system. In the interim, the political and media class would've embedded us ever deeper in the EU and bitterness would have still grown.

    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    I'm not saying that *will* happen, only that it can. But it requires people to accept the result, and that other people have very different views about the country, but that's a feature, not a bug, of democracy.

    Millions of plebs voted to Remain. Millions who voted Leave may end up feeling betrayed if the swivel-eyed right gets the cliff-edge departure it so craves. We need leadership that values conciliation and collaboration to take us forward. We don't have it.

    I agree entirely, but the key question is- Who in the house of commons, in any party is going to offer that leadership? Starmer? Osborne? Farron? I just don't know where it is going to come from. Bleak times indeed.
    Hopefully May she was remain so should be able to offer conciliation eventually She has started to use the language of Ed Milliband to reach out maybe it wiill help in areas such as yours the public sector as well as Brexit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    I rarely if ever agree with Norman tebbit, but...

    “I’m just pleased that the world is a sweeter and cleaner place now. He was not only a multi-murderer, he was a coward. He knew that the IRA were defeated because British intelligence had penetrated right the way up to the Army Council and that the end was coming. He then sought to save his own skin and he knew that it was likely he would be charged before long with several murders which he had personally committed and he decided that the only thing to do was to opt for peace. He claimed to be a Roman Catholic. I hope that his beliefs turn out to be true and he’ll be parked in a particularly hot and unpleasant corner of hell for the rest of eternity.”
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Dixie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Tissue_Price

    Tories 32
    Labour 28
    UKIP 25
    Lib Dems 7
    SNP & PC 4
    Greens 2
    Others 2

    Blimey.

    where is this from? Not recent?
    I think it’s a hypothetical vote share, if Brexit had been Brstay.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Ace, leaving the EU and leaving the UK are not the same thing.

    It's possible Scotland will leave but the notion it's inevitable is unduly pessimistic.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    Yes, that Ukipper is stupid in their beliefs.

    Now, about the beliefs and actions of the EU..........
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On a lighter note, I enjoyed George Galloway's pitch to the voters of Manchester Gorton, especially this bit:

    If I don’t [win the by-election], then the alternative will be a career politician
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    UKIP on 25%, GBP USD @ 1.45, GBP EUR @ 1.34 I think.

    Inflation would have been around zero still today.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure which is more sick-making: Corbyn's 'great family man' comment, or Blair's characteristically emetic Today interview.

    Dodds' interview on Radio 5 Live this morning was the correct tone.
    Ian Paisley Jnr, on BBC TV, was pretty good, too.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Mr. Dixie, panic ye not, it's a theoretical of what if Remain had won.

    thank God. Thank you
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Dura_Ace said:



    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    There isn't a going to be a nation, in the sense of the United Kingdom we know now, to unite. The bullshit can't be put back in the bull now. It's when not if for Scotland and how not if for Northern Ireland.

    I don't think that can be blamed solely on Brexit. NI has always been semi-detached at best, and Scotland has been drifting that way. If it hadn't been Brexit it would have been something else to provide the pretext for a second referendum. It has been when rather than if and how rather than if since 1997 if not before.

    [1997 is a fairly arbitrarily selected date here - it was the first GE I participated in. Arguably you could draw the inevitable split back much further]
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Yorkcity said:

    Hopefully May she was remain so should be able to offer conciliation eventually She has started to use the language of Ed Milliband to reach out maybe it wiill help in areas such as yours the public sector as well as Brexit.

    "Let me tell you, right... Am I tough enough to negotiate Brexit? Hell yes!"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited March 2017

    Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)

    The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.

    That was my money you took at 25. :)

    Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.

    Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.

    Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Ace, leaving the EU and leaving the UK are not the same thing.

    It's possible Scotland will leave but the notion it's inevitable is unduly pessimistic.

    Why do you think Scotland leaving would be a negative development? As is implied by the use of the word 'pessimistic'. I think it would be great for England.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    On a lighter note, I enjoyed George Galloway's pitch to the voters of Manchester Gorton, especially this bit:

    If I don’t [win the by-election], then the alternative will be a career politician

    A tad rich coming from a politician who has spent 26 years of the past 30 as a politician.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I rarely if ever agree with Norman tebbit, but...

    “I’m just pleased that the world is a sweeter and cleaner place now. He was not only a multi-murderer, he was a coward. He knew that the IRA were defeated because British intelligence had penetrated right the way up to the Army Council and that the end was coming. He then sought to save his own skin and he knew that it was likely he would be charged before long with several murders which he had personally committed and he decided that the only thing to do was to opt for peace. He claimed to be a Roman Catholic. I hope that his beliefs turn out to be true and he’ll be parked in a particularly hot and unpleasant corner of hell for the rest of eternity.”

    My twitter timeline is packed with McGuinness hate and for his apologists. A handful of Corbynistas are praising killing Tories.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    On a lighter note, I enjoyed George Galloway's pitch to the voters of Manchester Gorton, especially this bit:

    If I don’t [win the by-election], then the alternative will be a career politician

    A tad rich coming from a politician who has spent 26 years of the past 30 as a politician.
    A bit like Farage deriding Angela Merkel as a career politician when she only went into politics after the wall came down while Farage was already making his first political steps in the 80s.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    I rarely if ever agree with Norman tebbit, but...

    “I’m just pleased that the world is a sweeter and cleaner place now. He was not only a multi-murderer, he was a coward. He knew that the IRA were defeated because British intelligence had penetrated right the way up to the Army Council and that the end was coming. He then sought to save his own skin and he knew that it was likely he would be charged before long with several murders which he had personally committed and he decided that the only thing to do was to opt for peace. He claimed to be a Roman Catholic. I hope that his beliefs turn out to be true and he’ll be parked in a particularly hot and unpleasant corner of hell for the rest of eternity.”

    I would prefer that he felt remorse for his actions, before he died, although I suspect that he didn't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Patrick said:

    Mr. Observer, we were split before. The difference is that the best the plebs could do was lambast Mary Beard on Question Time for not understanding the real concerns of people in Grimsby at mass migration [only use that example because it stuck in my mind for some reason].

    Incidentally, if we hadn't had a vote (and the referendum was entirely voluntary) this would not have gone away. UKIP or a comparable new party would've gained ever increasing popularity, but doing so takes a long time under our system. In the interim, the political and media class would've embedded us ever deeper in the EU and bitterness would have still grown.

    This is an opportunity to lance the boil. Once we're out, the nation can unite, and pull together.

    I'm not saying that *will* happen, only that it can. But it requires people to accept the result, and that other people have very different views about the country, but that's a feature, not a bug, of democracy.

    Millions of plebs voted to Remain. Millions who voted Leave may end up feeling betrayed if the swivel-eyed right gets the cliff-edge departure it so craves. We need leadership that values conciliation and collaboration to take us forward. We don't have it.
    Translation: We need to leave technically but not actually.

    I do not give a toss about whether we leave the EU, my concern is the damage leaving the Single Market and Customs Union will do if we do not get a sensible agreement.

    This really all hinges on how much you believe the UK's economic wellbeing depends upon its economic union with the EU.

    My position is that leaving both 'cold' would be a handicap, but not a crippling one, as the continued development of the UK's international trade such that our exports to the EU are in a falling minority demonstrate. Britain's future trade network is far more global. Besides which, leaving both wouldn't "stop" trade - it would just impose extra barriers and costs to it between the UK and the EU, and prices and supply chains would need to adjust accordingly.

    The impact of imposing customs checks between goods moving between the UK and EU would be an inconvenience but the same would also offer prospects of tariff income and greater flexibility in striking global trade deals.

    I grant you it would have been a far bigger deal had we quit both in, say, the 1980s.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    BudG said:

    Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)

    The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.

    That was my money you took at 25. :)

    Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.

    Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.

    Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
    You may have got some value off me there! But I'd much rather be on at 12 w/o Labour than 25 all-in :-) When participants get added to Betfair markets the initial prices are often a reflection of existing participants' books as much as their true chance: there's no way those two prices were mutually compatible!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    I detest Vladimir Putin, and have been consistent in saying that since day one.

    But, by the same token, the cheekier elements of Remain were not shy in admitting that one of their campaign objectives was use the fringes to smear all Leave supporters as being secret admirers and agents of Putin.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Galloway might capture some moderate Labour voters who find the prospect of endorsing a Corbynite* unappealing.

    *If a Corbynite stands.

    Incidentally, anyone know if Galloway is a member of Momentum?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP on 25%, GBP USD @ 1.45, GBP EUR @ 1.34 I think.

    Inflation would have been around zero still today.

    but B of E is charged with keeping it about 2%. JOB DONE. Good old Brexit
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798

    On a lighter note, I enjoyed George Galloway's pitch to the voters of Manchester Gorton, especially this bit:

    If I don’t [win the by-election], then the alternative will be a career politician

    A tad rich coming from a politician who has spent 26 years of the past 30 as a politician.
    A bit like Farage deriding Angela Merkel as a career politician when she only went into politics after the wall came down while Farage was already making his first political steps in the 80s.
    God, don't, you'll get the 'Nigel was the most successful politician of his generation apart from an inability to get a few thousand people to vote for him personally' brigade all worked up.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    I rarely if ever agree with Norman tebbit, but...

    “I’m just pleased that the world is a sweeter and cleaner place now. He was not only a multi-murderer, he was a coward. He knew that the IRA were defeated because British intelligence had penetrated right the way up to the Army Council and that the end was coming. He then sought to save his own skin and he knew that it was likely he would be charged before long with several murders which he had personally committed and he decided that the only thing to do was to opt for peace. He claimed to be a Roman Catholic. I hope that his beliefs turn out to be true and he’ll be parked in a particularly hot and unpleasant corner of hell for the rest of eternity.”

    I'm a fan of

    "Hello, are you well"
    "Yes, well, still alive"

    burn.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Galloway might capture some moderate Labour voters who find the prospect of endorsing a Corbynite* unappealing.

    *If a Corbynite stands.

    Incidentally, anyone know if Galloway is a member of Momentum?

    They kept the Corbyn candidate off the shortlist, so I would have thought Galloway would be pitching to the Corbynites.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, but at whose expense? Would the purples be eating the reds alive?

    Yes. But the Tories wouldn't be over 40% either.
    The Reds are eating themselves !
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
    I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.

    That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, but at whose expense? Would the purples be eating the reds alive?

    Yes. But the Tories wouldn't be over 40% either.
    The Reds are eating themselves !
    only a mouthful currently. We need utter destruction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,891
    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, but at whose expense? Would the purples be eating the reds alive?

    Yes. But the Tories wouldn't be over 40% either.
    The Reds are eating themselves !
    They'd have lost voters, just the brexiteers instead of the romainers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    This is exaggerated though. The UK has only been a member of the EEC/EC/EU for 43 years.

    The fact such analogies even hold water is symptomatic of just how advanced economic and political union had advanced in those four decades, but the UK isn't symbiotically attached to the EU like a Siamese twin, risking death if suddenly parted.

    It's more a geopolitical shock: since 1957 we have believed that as an ex-imperial power our future foreign policy and global influence should be primarily leveraged through formal membership of the EEC/EC/EU.

    Now we have no longer chosen to do that, and the world has changed (personally, I doubt the civil service have thought much like that since the late 1980s and is now driven by soft internationalist idealism vis-à-vis the EU) we have some cold, hard thinking to do about just how we forge a new global role in the 21st Century.

    That can be a bit scary. It is also exciting. But the UK is still the same country.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    they've closed the comments. LOL
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    This is typical sentiment this morning.

    Moody Slayer
    A nice tribute to McGuinness would be a shallow unmarked secret grave where not even his family know the location. Like his Catholic victims

    Wirespy
    Can the hospital now hide McGuiness's body from his family and refuse to tell them where it is? See how they like it.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Dixie said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, but at whose expense? Would the purples be eating the reds alive?

    Yes. But the Tories wouldn't be over 40% either.
    The Reds are eating themselves !
    only a mouthful currently. We need utter destruction
    Reminds me of Izzard eating himself in Hannibal !
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Galloway might capture some moderate Labour voters who find the prospect of endorsing a Corbynite* unappealing.

    *If a Corbynite stands.

    Incidentally, anyone know if Galloway is a member of Momentum?

    They kept the Corbyn candidate off the shortlist, so I would have thought Galloway would be pitching to the Corbynites.
    Thanks I hadn't seen that. The Momentum crowd aren't too good at getting their candidates selected for byelections. However, as you say Galloway gives them someone to campaign for.

    My original comment about Galloway and moderates was of course tongue in cheek.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Now we have no longer chosen to do that, and the world has changed (personally, I doubt the civil service have thought much like that since the late 1980s and is now driven by soft internationalist idealism vis-à-vis the EU) we have some cold, hard thinking to do about just how we forge a new global role in the 21st Century.

    If you're right and I believe there's a lot of truth in that comment, then it's quite possible that having done our cold, hard thinking, we'll come to same conclusion as we did in the 70s all over again.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I am always intrigued when people use the word coward.To me it never seems appropriate in the context they use it.As they never seem excessively afraid of danger.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    It says that the comments are closed, I wonder why? :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    nunu said:

    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    they've closed the comments. LOL
    Libs down to 3.5 on BF. They were 9.8 when I got on this morning. Thx Mr Meeks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
    I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.

    That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
    We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.

    In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:

    1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive.
    2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.)
    3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA.
    4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).

    Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Galloway might capture some moderate Labour voters who find the prospect of endorsing a Corbynite* unappealing.

    *If a Corbynite stands.

    Incidentally, anyone know if Galloway is a member of Momentum?

    They kept the Corbyn candidate off the shortlist, so I would have thought Galloway would be pitching to the Corbynites.
    I thought Galloway was trying to rejoin Labour. This wont help.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    PlatoSaid said:

    I rarely if ever agree with Norman tebbit, but...

    “I’m just pleased that the world is a sweeter and cleaner place now. He was not only a multi-murderer, he was a coward. He knew that the IRA were defeated because British intelligence had penetrated right the way up to the Army Council and that the end was coming. He then sought to save his own skin and he knew that it was likely he would be charged before long with several murders which he had personally committed and he decided that the only thing to do was to opt for peace. He claimed to be a Roman Catholic. I hope that his beliefs turn out to be true and he’ll be parked in a particularly hot and unpleasant corner of hell for the rest of eternity.”

    My twitter timeline is packed with McGuinness hate and for his apologists. A handful of Corbynistas are praising killing Tories.
    What a nice set of friends you have!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2017

    Galloway might capture some moderate Labour voters who find the prospect of endorsing a Corbynite* unappealing.

    *If a Corbynite stands.

    Incidentally, anyone know if Galloway is a member of Momentum?

    They kept the Corbyn candidate off the shortlist, so I would have thought Galloway would be pitching to the Corbynites.
    I thought Galloway was trying to rejoin Labour. This wont help.
    It’s an odd one, Galloway has demanded from Corbyn that his expulsion from Labour be rescinded, but at the same time claiming he has no desire to rejoin Labour. Corbyn says it’s a matter for the NEC to decide, not himself.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Yorkcity said:

    I am always intrigued when people use the word coward.To me it never seems appropriate in the context they use it.As they never seem excessively afraid of danger.

    Yes, I agree. People often seem to use it to mean 'someone who carries out a reprehensible act'.
    One could argue wrt McGuinness that he wasn't cowardly enough.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    nunu said:

    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    they've closed the comments. LOL
    Comments also closed on the article listing the all-Moslem shortlist.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Rentool, surely "Comments also haram on the article listing the all-Moslem shortlist"?

    King Cole, people can sometimes be surprisingly nutty on Twitter. They'll be normal for ages and chat about this and that, then claim physically assaulting people for their political views is acceptable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    On a lighter note, I enjoyed George Galloway's pitch to the voters of Manchester Gorton, especially this bit:

    If I don’t [win the by-election], then the alternative will be a career politician

    A tad rich coming from a politician who has spent 26 years of the past 30 as a politician.
    Quite. I suspect what he means is 'ordinary' politician, as whatever else can be said about him, Galloway is not an identikit party automaton. But that is not as cool sounding.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    This is exaggerated though. The UK has only been a member of the EEC/EC/EU for 43 years.

    The fact such analogies even hold water is symptomatic of just how advanced economic and political union had advanced in those four decades, but the UK isn't symbiotically attached to the EU like a Siamese twin, risking death if suddenly parted.

    It's more a geopolitical shock: since 1957 we have believed that as an ex-imperial power our future foreign policy and global influence should be primarily leveraged through formal membership of the EEC/EC/EU.

    Now we have no longer chosen to do that, and the world has changed (personally, I doubt the civil service have thought much like that since the late 1980s and is now driven by soft internationalist idealism vis-à-vis the EU) we have some cold, hard thinking to do about just how we forge a new global role in the 21st Century.

    That can be a bit scary. It is also exciting. But the UK is still the same country.
    I thought the UK set up EFTA in 1960 as a rival to the EEC. Until 1973, EFTA had more members. EFTA was definitely economic, not political.

    For Europhiles, 25.03.17 is the 60th. anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.

    Followed on 01.04.17 by the 60th. anniversary of this great April Fool's joke, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26723188.

    Which seems to show how little even the 'educated' UK population knew about 'the continent'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    I think the policy advocated by "EU-fanboys" in the Ukraine is more dangerous the mutterings of "Putin fanboys".

    The EU never made Ukrainians do anything by force. It would have been easier all around had the country just wanted to remain within a russian sphere of influence, but significant parts of it didn't.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Rentool, surely "Comments also haram on the article listing the all-Moslem shortlist"?

    King Cole, people can sometimes be surprisingly nutty on Twitter. They'll be normal for ages and chat about this and that, then claim physically assaulting people for their political views is acceptable.

    Eric Idle is a classic example. He kept on with his jail climate sceptics mantra long after he'd been called out. He doubled down and advocated humanely euthanased. He wasn't joking on either point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Miss Plato, aye, I saw that (via RTs). Bill Nye's said similar things. Better lock up those pesky non-believers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Now we have no longer chosen to do that, and the world has changed (personally, I doubt the civil service have thought much like that since the late 1980s and is now driven by soft internationalist idealism vis-à-vis the EU) we have some cold, hard thinking to do about just how we forge a new global role in the 21st Century.

    If you're right and I believe there's a lot of truth in that comment, then it's quite possible that having done our cold, hard thinking, we'll come to same conclusion as we did in the 70s all over again.
    That is not impossible. But I think the world has changed massively since the 70s when regional trading blocs, based on geographical proximity, looked like the future in an era of competing superpowers like the US v. USSR.

    I think it's more likely we leverage our No.1 soft-power status and strong position in services to forge a flexible new global role that's based on a number of multi-polar alliances (not just with the EU and US) with London acting as a global trade hub.

    I think it unlikely net immigration will reduce by much. I think it will move to higher-skilled mix with the quotas/types debated, and set, through our Parliament, with a closer link to regional policy, which will hopefully take a lot of the heat out of it.

    It could (should) even be better for the UK in the long-term as the global opportunities we pursue percolate down to regions of the UK that are currently struggling, and we emphasise skills training and adult education more.

    But the UK will be no less globalised or internationalist than it currently is. It will be even more so.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    tlg86 said:

    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    It says that the comments are closed, I wonder why? :D
    Ha! So funny. Labour really are the blind leading the ignorant!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I see "Putin fan-boys" have become more Meeksian bogeymen.

    Putin is an unpleasant & corrupt thug (much the same as any previous leader of Russia, except possibly Gorby).

    But, Russia has a legitimate claim on the Crimea, & a plebiscite would result in an absolutely overwhelming Russian mandate.

    The present borders of the Ukraine need re-drawing. This is actually in the Ukraine's interests, and a slightly more sensible policy from the West should be to encourage plebiscites in all the disputed territories.

    The EU have as usual made a bad situation worse with their viscerally anti-Russian stance. They have encouraged the Ukraine to try and maintain an unstable situation in the East.

    The net result will be, after years of insurgency & Civil War, the Ukraine will lose more territory than it would have lost if it had organised plebiscites and conceded those areas with a Russian majority now.

    A former leader of UKIP described Vladimir Putin as one of her top three heroes, alongside Margaret Thatcher and Sir Winston Churchill. Another former leader of UKIP described him as the world leader he most admired.

    Fanboy seems a reasonable word for that.
    I detest Vladimir Putin, and have been consistent in saying that since day one.

    But, by the same token, the cheekier elements of Remain were not shy in admitting that one of their campaign objectives was use the fringes to smear all Leave supporters as being secret admirers and agents of Putin.
    You have been his enablers. I wouldn't suggest that all of them are secret admirers and agents of Putin. There are plenty of useful idiots too.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,450
    If Corbyn loses Manchester Gorton, it will be like the EdStone. A classic vignette of a hopeless leadership.

    Will Con gain Bootle with a split leftwing vote?!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tlg86 said:

    Dixie said:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/03/nandy-galloways-decision-to-stand-in-gorton-is-entirely-self-serving/#disqus_thread

    Labour members panicking about Gorton because of GG. Comments are great. One advocates a male candidate to ensure Muslims vote Labour. Nothing sexist or racist there then!

    It says that the comments are closed, I wonder why? :D
    For the commenters' own good, I expect, given Mr Galloway's fondness for our learned friends.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    BudG said:

    Laid GG at 25 on the main market, but backed him at an average of 12 without Labour (who are a 1.2 shot, let's not forget!)

    The Lib Dems are surely the likeliest beneficiaries though.

    That was my money you took at 25. :)

    Backed at both 20 and 25, mainly for trading purposes. GG is likely to get a lot more media publicity than all the other candidates combined in the run-up to the election.

    Edit: But you are correct, LD's are going to be the main beneficaries of his inclusion.

    Oh and JC, because he now has someone to blame if it all goes mammaries up for Labour
    You may have got some value off me there! But I'd much rather be on at 12 w/o Labour than 25 all-in :-) When participants get added to Betfair markets the initial prices are often a reflection of existing participants' books as much as their true chance: there's no way those two prices were mutually compatible!
    Hopefully we will both get some value. I would concur that 12/1 w/o Labour is easily the better bet.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
    I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.

    That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
    We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.

    In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:

    1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive.
    2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.)
    3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA.
    4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).

    Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
    The MHRA - MCA as was is a primary member of the EMA and its standards are widely admired. I don't disagree that remaining part of the EMA would be advantageous but leaving wouldn't be a disaster.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
    I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.

    That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
    We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.

    In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:

    1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive.
    2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.)
    3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA.
    4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).

    Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
    I'd be very wary about joining FDA... They were fairly politicised even before Trump...
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    If Corbyn loses Manchester Gorton, it will be like the EdStone. A classic vignette of a hopeless leadership.

    Will Con gain Bootle with a split leftwing vote?!

    It's inconceivable that they will lose Gorton. If they do, they might be in trouble. I suggest they will still get 45% of vote. We need Jezza to hold on.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    To listen to the radio this morning you'd have thought that Martin McGuiness had been elevated to sainthood for, finally, doing something to clear the mess he he'd been so instrumental in creating.

    Still, the bastard died in his bed. Unlike:-

    - Jonathan Ball, the three year old boy killed in Warrington while out shopping for a Mother's Day card. His mother died of a broken heart.
    - Jean McConville, a mother of 10, "disappeared" and killed for showing kindness to a wounded British soldier.
    - Robert Nairac, the British soldier kidnapped from a pub, tortured and killed in 1977.
    - Heidi Hazell, a German girl sitting in a car with British number plates outside an army base in Germany and shot 14 times at point blank range.
    - Royal Air Force Corporal Maheshkumar Islania and his 6 month old daughter who were shot dead in their car outside an RAF base in Germany. The baby was being held in her mother's arms.

    And all the many many other victims of the IRA.

    May they rest in peace.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Miss Plato, aye, I saw that (via RTs). Bill Nye's said similar things. Better lock up those pesky non-believers.

    Nye was quite unhinged on Tucker Carlson. Tucker gets some very entertaining guests who make total idiots of themselves within 60 secs. They display the same weakness - all feels over facts - and so used to choir preaching that they're all wibble when challenged.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Blue_rog said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mr. Ace, it's possible but not certain that Scotland will vote to leave.

    Pure 22nd June thinking.

    Brexit is analagous to getting divorced. When you get divorced you don't get your life to carry on exactly as it was minus the annoying fucking wife that had you googling methods of corpse disposal. (I should know). Your whole life changes. Thus it is with Brexit. The UK won't be as it was before the referendum except it's now outside the EU. Everything changes.
    Are Scotland and Northern Ireland "the kids" of whom custody is sought?
    Is $60bn alimony cheap at the price?
    I keep hearing of things the EU does for us which we shall have to pay for ourselves after - if? - we leave. Anti-trust enforcement against Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon et al is one example.

    That £8 bn per year won't pay for everything, you know.
    We already have meaningful anti-trust enforcement in this country. I wouldn't have thought that we'll need to replicate the EU's.

    In other areas, though, we do have choices. As an example, the European Medicines Agency - from what I understand - does a good job of certifying medicines. When we leave the EU we have four basic options:

    1. Replicate what the EMA does, which would be expensive.
    2. Pay the EU to continue to be a member of the EMA. (Which is what Norway does.)
    3. Pay the US to effectively become a member of the FDA.
    4. Attempt to freeload off other people's certification processes. We could, for example, say that any medicine certified by either the FDA or the EMA could be sold in the UK, and we could merely allow NICE to decide what is cost effective (and what requires prescriptions).

    Each of these has its advantages and disadvantages.
    The MHRA - MCA as was is a primary member of the EMA and its standards are widely admired. I don't disagree that remaining part of the EMA would be advantageous but leaving wouldn't be a disaster.
    One problem is that unless we have identcal standrads and information requirements as one of the ‘big boys’ we are going to be down the queue when it comes to new medicines.

    There’s also an issue about people losing their jobs in the interim, and the general disruption that will follow. There will also be Brits deciding their future is with the big organisation and consequently a small but potentially damaging brain drain.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/21/eu-mocks-britain-anti-brexit-tintin-poster-wall-brussels-war/

    Oh dear, I think there's nothing more likely to harden the UK's public opinion than the EU behaving like this. Especially expecting us to crawl back begging for mercy.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Cyclefree said:

    To listen to the radio this morning you'd have thought that Martin McGuiness had been elevated to sainthood for, finally, doing something to clear the mess he he'd been so instrumental in creating.

    Still, the bastard died in his bed. Unlike:-

    - Jonathan Ball, the three year old boy killed in Warrington while out shopping for a Mother's Day card. His mother died of a broken heart.
    - Jean McConville, a mother of 10, "disappeared" and killed for showing kindness to a wounded British soldier.
    - Robert Nairac, the British soldier kidnapped from a pub, tortured and killed in 1977.
    - Heidi Hazell, a German girl sitting in a car with British number plates outside an army base in Germany and shot 14 times at point blank range.
    - Royal Air Force Corporal Maheshkumar Islania and his 6 month old daughter who were shot dead in their car outside an RAF base in Germany. The baby was being held in her mother's arms.

    And all the many many other victims of the IRA.

    May they rest in peace.

    Indeed. An army friend mine was lynched by an IRA mob by accidentally straying into the wrong area. Murdering bastard. RIP...Rot in Perpetuity.
This discussion has been closed.