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SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though those who bet that the PVV wouldn’t do it in Holland will end up winners

It looks as though the PVV have been beaten https://t.co/f8mBWUvYrZ

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Comments

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Exit Poll

    VVD (People's Party) 31 seats
    PVV (Party of Freedom) 19
    CDA (Christian Democrats) 19
    D66 (social liberal) 19
    GL (Greens) 16
    SP (Socialists) 14
    PvdA (Labour) 9
    CU (Christians) 6
    PvdD (Animals) 5
    50+ (Pensioners) 4
    SGP (Calvinists) 3
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,210
    Second like Man City.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    Top tipping by Alastair.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    tlg86 said:

    Second like Man City.

    Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,210
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Man City.

    Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.
    Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    Same time in six months when the dutch finally form a government?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Man City.

    Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.
    Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?
    I believe you mentioned it once or twice during the first leg.

    Just think this time last week someone backed Barcelona to win the Champions League at around 700/1
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Dutch Green party appear to be winners too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,110
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Man City.

    Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.
    Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?
    On the way they are playing looks a good bet
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    edited March 2017
    Mr. 86, did you tip it?

    Edited extra bit: I have a feeling you did, and I failed to back it :pensive:

    No dog in that fight, so I hope it comes off :)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    Hard to see past Rutte as PM, even though the VVD has lost seats. If you assume that Wilders is not an acceptable partner for anyone, then there is nobody else close to a majority. Great Green result at the expense of the social democrats - glamorous Green leader didn't hurt, but it's the same pattern as Corbyn beating the centrists in Labour, projected onto a PR landscape.

    Remarkable result for the Animals party, incidentally - shrugged off the main battle and increased by 150%.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,334
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    Ditto
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    If the pattern of the Greens doing well and the mainstream left doing badly is repeated in Germany, my tip of a Jamaica coalition looks sound.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    You can still lay her at 4s on BF. Should be more like 8 to 10s if you ask me.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    Turnout up from 74.6 to 81%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    You can still lay her at 4s on BF. Should be more like 8 to 10s if you ask me.
    I'm balls deep (For me) already don't worry
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Palmer, that sounds very high. Normal for the Dutch, or beyond the usual turnout levels?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    Less of farage-esque escapades this is a family friendly website!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
    People love narrative: populist insurgents taking over the world, shaking up the established order!

    There is no grand, over-arching plan. Some things will go one way, some things another.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    edited March 2017
    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    The coverage by our media, or lack thereof, on the Northern Ireland Assembly elections was just as embarrassing.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,576
    https://twitter.com/amolrajanbbc/status/842107952416841735
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    Me too, should I be feeling equally comfortable of my laying of Fillon too?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
    Wonder what the Express will make of it all?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    Like Scandinavia, Netherlands generally has very high turnout - combination of small country effect (people tend to feel closer to the political world, and may well know MPs or associates personally) and civic duty culture.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Palmer, cheers for that post. Quite interesting to consider how demographics affect turnout/political psychology more widely.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
    Wonder what the Express will make of it all?
    Shock Diana election victory causes house prices to rocket
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    66 Left, 76 Right, 8 Unaligned, if the Exit Poll is correct.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
    People love narrative: populist insurgents taking over the world, shaking up the established order!

    There is no grand, over-arching plan. Some things will go one way, some things another.
    If in doubt, back the centre-right is a good rule of thumb.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
    That was a massive price. 1-10000 more like.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

    Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.
    Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.
    People love narrative: populist insurgents taking over the world, shaking up the established order!

    There is no grand, over-arching plan. Some things will go one way, some things another.
    Wilders is no insurgent, though. He kept a coalition in power from 2010 to 2012, whilst alienating all who tried to work with him. Precious few reports made any of that clear.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Palmer, cheers for that post. Quite interesting to consider how demographics affect turnout/political psychology more widely.

    Replied PT on desert based management consultants
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,244
    Thanks to Alistair Meeks.

    And yet another example of a Betfair favourite not winning.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    2nd exit poll awfully like the 1st one
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Sean_F said:

    66 Left, 76 Right, 8 Unaligned, if the Exit Poll is correct.

    The CDA have said they won't be part of a coalition with the PVV, but I guess they may be happy with an informal arrangement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Charles, cheers for that post.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
    I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

    Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    NickPalmer said:

    Like Scandinavia, Netherlands generally has very high turnout - combination of small country effect (people tend to feel closer to the political world, and may well know MPs or associates personally) and civic duty culture.

    Was reading about the civic culture stemming from the need to make sure dykes were properly maintained and funded. Left or Right, Protestant and Catholic all drown the same!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    66 Left, 76 Right, 8 Unaligned, if the Exit Poll is correct.

    The CDA have said they won't be part of a coalition with the PVV, but I guess they may be happy with an informal arrangement.
    It would seem to me that VVD, CDA, CU, would be the obvious government, with supply and confidence from PVV, FvD, and maybe the Pensioners.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
    I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

    Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.
    You flagged it up, I viewed it as a licence to print money.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
    I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

    Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.
    You flagged it up, I viewed it as a licence to print money.
    Did you get your full £2.73 on !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,712
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Top tipping by Alastair.

    I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 :) Ok... celebration over.
    I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.
    I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

    Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.
    You flagged it up, I viewed it as a licence to print money.
    Did you get your full £2.73 on !
    Yup.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    VVD, CDA, D 66 and CU favourite to rule according to Dutch TV.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is there a site with actual votes counted so far, as opposed to exit polls?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Anyway, I'm off now. Best of luck to Monaco and those who have bets on the Dutch result. Hopefully the points markets for F1 will be up tomorrow.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    dixiedean said:

    VVD, CDA, D 66 and CU favourite to rule according to Dutch TV.

    Tight.

  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 969
    Now, all they need to do is to count the massive ballot papers!!

    https://twitter.com/IngriddeCroon/status/842106132411912193/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

    VVD + CDA + D66 I think and it's how they get to 76 after that. Greens? CU + SGP conf/supply? Surely PvdA will want to rebuild in opposition. No results in yet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,051
    Just goes to show betting markets predict how people bet, they dont preedict how people vote
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Ate two.

    I'll get my toga...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    66 Left, 76 Right, 8 Unaligned, if the Exit Poll is correct.

    The CDA have said they won't be part of a coalition with the PVV, but I guess they may be happy with an informal arrangement.
    It would seem to me that VVD, CDA, CU, would be the obvious government, with supply and confidence from PVV, FvD, and maybe the Pensioners.
    VVD + CDA is pretty much the Conservative Party in the UK (albeit more pro-EU). The CDA were very vocally anti-PVV in the campaign, while the VVD did not rule out working with them.

    Given four parties are needed to "cross the line", I reckon there is a good chance we'll be waiting quite a while for a finalised government.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Second like Man City.

    Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.
    Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?
    Perhaps Spurs pitiful European campaign was quite as dire as I thought....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    AndyJS said:

    Is there a site with actual votes counted so far, as opposed to exit polls?

    https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html (scroll down)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is there a site with actual votes counted so far, as opposed to exit polls?

    https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html (scroll down)
    Thanks.

    It's a pity it doesn't say what the name of the area is when you click on it on the map. Obviously the first two results are from the Frisian Islands.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Oh dear.
    How can the Dutch hope to run a civilised society with so many parties?
    And they use a hell of a lot of cycles too.
    Lost.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,051
    Restharrow said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Ate two.

    I'll get my toga...
    brilliant :-)

    im still laughing
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Toms said:


    Oh dear.
    How can the Dutch hope to run a civilised society with so many parties?
    And they use a hell of a lot of cycles too.
    Lost.

    Looks like it'll be quite easy to form a sensible pro EU centrist/right government to me.....
    With a perfectly proportional voting system too.

    Can't say I'm a bit jealous of their system & result tbh :()
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,051
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    have you met the DUP ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    AndyJS said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is there a site with actual votes counted so far, as opposed to exit polls?

    https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html (scroll down)
    Thanks.

    It's a pity it doesn't say what the name of the area is when you click on it on the map. Obviously the first two results are from the Frisian Islands.
    I think you misread, the name is displayed above the results: SCHIERMONNIKOOG and

    VLIELAND
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    I'm no expert in Dutch politics but I think the foreign media desire to paint Wilders as part of the 'populist' narrative is at fault here. He is not really all that similar to Farage, Le Pen, or Trump. He is a single issue islamophobe extremist, with nothing to say on the economy or even much to say on the EU. Frankly, considering some of his latest comments on moroccan scum, it is still unnerving how highly they have scored.

    So I don't know that we can yet interpret this as a backlash against the trumpian populist wave, certainly not in France which is in a very different situation to the Netherlands (worse economy, bigger problems with terrorism etc - much closer to tipping point). Le Pen is much closer to Trump in her overall programme - anti-islam only makes up 1 part of that.

    I think it's more likely than not that Macron beats her in round 2 (Fillon would've lost against her, but he is now so damaged that he almost certainly won't make the second round) - but Macron has no real solid base, he is kind of lightweight, and things could easily turn in her favour.

    In short, I think there will be a misplaced overreaction against Le Pen following these results.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    dixiedean said:

    VVD, CDA, D 66 and CU favourite to rule according to Dutch TV.

    Tight.

    Dutch TV notes that in theory a centre-left government is possible if D66 and one other party would play. D66 perhaps, CDA surely not. The Animals party is very hardline on their niche issue - would need something like an end to factory farming or an end to animal experiments. There's a little speculation of a grand coalition between VVD and Green Left as the big winner plus a centre party but it's hard to see a platform basis for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    50+, the Reformed Party and the CU all lean (to varying degrees) right. Of course, there will now be five months of behind the scenes squabbling over who gets what ministry, while government continues as normal.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is there a site with actual votes counted so far, as opposed to exit polls?

    https://lfverkiezingen.appspot.com/nos/widget/main.html (scroll down)
    Thanks.

    It's a pity it doesn't say what the name of the area is when you click on it on the map. Obviously the first two results are from the Frisian Islands.

    Hover with mouse gives name.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    chestnut said:

    Alistair said:


    chestnut said:



    Scotland polls?

    Survation Scotland 75% Remain
    TNS Scotland 69% Remain

    Real Remain 62%

    Subbies within two points of that - phone subs 62-38.

    Looks like he/she was right, whoever he/she was.

    Wait, you be picked two polls with the highest Remain percentage that were 2 months out from the vote?

    Lols.

    Here's a cherry you can pick.

    You can do the counting on the polls over the last two months if you like.

    See what you come up with.
    Err, taking the polls with field work started on or after the 23 of April gives a average Scotland figure of:

    Remain: 56.5%
    Leave: 33.5%
    Don't Know: 15%

    Which produces a headline:

    Remain: 66.5%
    Leave: 33.5%

    The guy UnionDivvie was talking about thought Scotland would be within a few percentage points of the UK vote
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2017
    Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

    Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 969
    edited March 2017
    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Groningen, Utrecht etc.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,051
    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    yes, but what are the odds on Erdogan taking over ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    DoubleCarpet said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    I visited Arnhem last year. Poignant museum there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    Raheem sterling is utterly shit...That's all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Alanbrooke said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    yes, but what are the odds on Erdogan taking over ?
    Better than Wilders in all honesty.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

    Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

    You can vote anywhere you happen to be in NL, as it has no constituencies. Therefore, turnout can exceed the population (especially on holiday islands).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    DoubleCarpet said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    from The Guardian blog:

    Dutch media outlet NOS is reporting that the exit poll could mean that the Labour party, one of the country’s largest has lost a record number of seats.

    The numbers would see the PvdA, which was in a coalition government with the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), go from 38 seats to nine seats. That’s an unprecedented loss in Dutch politics.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,627
    Alanbrooke said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    yes, but what are the odds on Erdogan taking over ?
    Don't give him any ideas!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    I was reading that their then leader blamed the German occupation on failure to keep the Sabbath. They've pretty much always won 2% since the 1920's.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    More likely corbyn defects to the Tories.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    Alanbrooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    have you met the DUP ?
    The DUP are more liberal.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 969
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DoubleCarpet said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,051
    Sean_F said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    have you met the DUP ?
    The DUP are more liberal.
    lol

    well depends on who youre talking to :-)
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    chestnut said:

    from The Guardian blog:

    Dutch media outlet NOS is reporting that the exit poll could mean that the Labour party, one of the country’s largest has lost a record number of seats.

    The numbers would see the PvdA, which was in a coalition government with the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), go from 38 seats to nine seats. That’s an unprecedented loss in Dutch politics.

    Down 29 is unprecedented but somewhat counterintuitively (considering PR) big losses, e.g. 20 seats, are quite common.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,780
    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,869
    edited March 2017
    The French and Dutch are balls-deep into the EU Project, so will never go full-on Populist.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    NickPalmer said:

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    :+1:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    DoubleCarpet said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    DoubleCarpet said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
    OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

    I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    edited March 2017
    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Man city this evening remind me of corbyns labour party...Just missed from 4 yards out.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    :+1:
    They have twice as many elections to keep it going...!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,473
    edited March 2017
    NickPalmer said:

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    With the minor downside of having to wait for months sometimes years for a government to form.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Delicious. Eat two.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

    Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

    ??
This discussion has been closed.

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