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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    Have you been to Northern Ireland? :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    nunu said:

    Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

    Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

    ??
    See dixiedean below. Apparently the numbers are correct :)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Some urban polling stations are still open - presumably because of long queues.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    More likely corbyn defects to the Tories.
    Corbyn is a Tory sleeper agent!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    Have you been to Northern Ireland? :)
    Well, I said "can" rather than "will". If the community is deeply divided, the electoral system isn't a perfect cure. But would NI work better if there were just two main parties, with e.g. SDLP and Sinn Fein forced to work together?
  • Citeh!
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Pulpstar said:

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    :+1:

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    Yes. I was an FPP man, but that's well argued Nick. I'm coming around to the idea.
  • City scored now lead by 1 on tie
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

    Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

    Delicious. Eat two.
    Brew tea.
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Francis

    Commentator's curse!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    I take it back...Corbyn in sane position would have put it over the stands.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    More likely corbyn defects to the Tories.
    Corbyn is a Tory sleeper agent!
    At least a Triple sleeper agent !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

    More likely corbyn defects to the Tories.
    Corbyn is a Tory sleeper agent!
    Lately, he is not even a sleeper. He supports them on Brexit.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

    I'm no expert in Dutch politics but I think the foreign media desire to paint Wilders as part of the 'populist' narrative is at fault here. He is not really all that similar to Farage, Le Pen, or Trump. He is a single issue islamophobe extremist, with nothing to say on the economy or even much to say on the EU. Frankly, considering some of his latest comments on moroccan scum, it is still unnerving how highly they have scored.

    So I don't know that we can yet interpret this as a backlash against the trumpian populist wave, certainly not in France which is in a very different situation to the Netherlands (worse economy, bigger problems with terrorism etc - much closer to tipping point). Le Pen is much closer to Trump in her overall programme - anti-islam only makes up 1 part of that.

    I think it's more likely than not that Macron beats her in round 2 (Fillon would've lost against her, but he is now so damaged that he almost certainly won't make the second round) - but Macron has no real solid base, he is kind of lightweight, and things could easily turn in her favour.

    In short, I think there will be a misplaced overreaction against Le Pen following these results.
    Plus Rutte has won largely by stealing some of Wilders clothes, Macron will certainly not do that plus while Wilders has failed to win his voteshare is still up. In the 2014 European elections the PVV came 3rd in the Netherlands when the FN came 1st in France
  • Oh Citeh
  • Monaco score - now 6 - 6 but Monaco ahead on away goals
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563

    Mr. Charles, cheers for that post.

    That was the one where poor Billy Hague got sent out to take one for the team, facing the media storm asking why the government response was slow and shit. He was of course fully aware that the Hereford branch of the diplomatic service were scrambling in the background, and a few days later all went rather well in their rather daring evacuation of the desert oilfields.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited March 2017

    The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    Of course. But it's a deep social aspect. We are a society of bear baiters, cock fighters and prize fighters, and we like to see the victor standing victorious over his battered rival. This requires two contestants not several.
    In our case a common criticism of the LibDems is that they are not for one or tuther and hence unreliable.
    et cetera.
  • 3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
    OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

    I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.
    Well I think there will be a handful - Rotterdam and Limburg (bottom right province) likeliest.

    Might even be >10 but we'll see!!

    Just glad I've booked tomorrow am off work - most of Europe voting on Sunday is just much more civilized than weekday elections!

    Well done to everyone who got on the VVD most seats bet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2017
    6-6...I preferred when European ties were tight affairs where 1-0 over the two legs was a common result ...Too many goals these days ;-)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Very good call on this Alastair!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
    OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

    I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.
    Well I think there will be a handful - Rotterdam and Limburg (bottom right province) likeliest.

    Might even be >10 but we'll see!!

    Just glad I've booked tomorrow am off work - most of Europe voting on Sunday is just much more civilized than weekday elections!

    Well done to everyone who got on the VVD most seats bet.
    What was staggering was not that the VVD were not favourites but that the PVV were ODDS ON.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,734
    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
    If we had pure PR like the Dutch, and treated the whole UK as single constituency, a party would only need to win 0.17% of the vote to get into Parliament.

    So, in addition to the current parties, the BNP, English Democrats, Socialist Labour Party, TUSC, Mebyon Kernow, Womens' Equality Party, NF, would probably have at least 1 MP, and there'd be a host of religious parties and special interest groups getting into Parliament.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    19 seats, out of 150, so nearer 13%
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642

    I take it back...Corbyn in sane position would have put it over the stands.

    6-6...I preferred when European ties were tight affairs where 1-0 over the two legs was a common result ...Too many goals these days ;-)

    The glory days of Catenaccio, Francis.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dixiedean said:

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    19 seats, out of 150, so nearer 13%
    Quite right. Maybe I should get an early night...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,563

    Raheem sterling is utterly shit...That's all.

    He was bloody good when he used to wear a Liverpool shirt!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    This looks suspiciously like GE 2015 !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
    If we had pure PR like the Dutch, and treated the whole UK as single constituency, a party would only need to win 0.17% of the vote to get into Parliament.

    So, in addition to the current parties, the BNP, English Democrats, Socialist Labour Party, TUSC, Mebyon Kernow, Womens' Equality Party, NF, would probably have at least 1 MP, and there'd be a host of religious parties and special interest groups getting into Parliament.
    What's wrong with that ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited March 2017
    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
    OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

    I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.
    Well I think there will be a handful - Rotterdam and Limburg (bottom right province) likeliest.

    Might even be >10 but we'll see!!

    Just glad I've booked tomorrow am off work - most of Europe voting on Sunday is just much more civilized than weekday elections!

    Well done to everyone who got on the VVD most seats bet.
    What was staggering was not that the VVD were not favourites but that the PVV were ODDS ON.
    Most of the punters are heavily influenced by the media.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
    If we had pure PR like the Dutch, and treated the whole UK as single constituency, a party would only need to win 0.17% of the vote to get into Parliament.

    So, in addition to the current parties, the BNP, English Democrats, Socialist Labour Party, TUSC, Mebyon Kernow, Womens' Equality Party, NF, would probably have at least 1 MP, and there'd be a host of religious parties and special interest groups getting into Parliament.
    Bloody hell what a silly system.....The ISIS Party could win seats under that system. 0.17% is way too low. A 5% threshold is about right.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Good evening all

    A very pleasant if unprofitable day at Prestbury Park

    PtP and Cheltboy put in an appearance. Both on good form, in every sense. Both backed Labaik yesterday.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    This looks suspiciously like GE 2015 !
    Not quite . It matches the 2015 Tory vote , but Labour and UKIP are down a bit with the LDs and Grns higher. Green vote looks a bit high , but beyond that the figures are not far off what Opinium have been coming up with over recent months - though the Tory lead of circa 8% is down on 13% in mid February.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
  • City out
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Justin Short Straws up to his old tricks I see...Like rod crosby...On his second favourite subject!
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
    Opinium have said if they don't flag up VI on their commentary, then we are to assume a full suite VI question wasn't asked.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2017
    unfortunate...

    Monaco 3-1 Manchester City
    Phil Neville - Former Manchester United defender on Radio 5 live
    Posted at 21:22
    It was Monaco's first attack of the second half. There is another goal in this game, I put my life on it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There was a new YouGov today with Con 44%, Lab 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 9%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    City out

    Were they expected to lose to Monaco tonight? I didn't see the odds at start of play.
  • Scott_P said:
    Odds off? Odds off?

    Who did that graphic deserves to be locked in a disused fridge.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 505

    I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

    Of course, FPTP does have the advantage of forcing those 'lumbering coalitions' to put together a manifesto in advance of the election and present it to the electorate, who can then hold them accountable for it. As, for instance, with the government's climb-down over National Insurance. Had we had the kind of PR system you suggest, Hammond could have blamed his coalition partners, his coalition partners could have blamed him, and the tax hike would have gone through.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
    Opinium have said if they don't flag up VI on their commentary, then we are to assume a full suite VI question wasn't asked.
    So why do they give out these figures ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    AndyJS said:

    There was a new YouGov today with Con 44%, Lab 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 9%.

    Who remembers the good old days of the daily YouGov? And us all trying to guess whether or not the fact it wasn't tweeted by the Sun in the early evening was a good or bad sign. :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited March 2017
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
    Opinium have said if they don't flag up VI on their commentary, then we are to assume a full suite VI question wasn't asked.
    So why do they give out these figures ?
    They don't, what we have here is some data to get a nationally representative sample for non VI questions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
    Opinium have said if they don't flag up VI on their commentary, then we are to assume a full suite VI question wasn't asked.
    So why do they give out these figures ?
    They don't.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Data from Opinium poll completed on 7th March appears to generate the following Voting intention figures :

    Con 37.9% Lab 29.8% LD 9.4% UKIP 11.2% Grn 6.2%

    You keep on doing this, if it is full VI suite of questions, the pollster will flag up the VI, if they don't, you shouldn't extrapolate those figures yourself.

    You did this ComRes every month despite myself and ComRes telling you otherwise.
    We all know about Comres by now - though they did start Voting Intention polls again last month. However, I was not aware that Opinium had also talked down its data on this.
    Opinium have said if they don't flag up VI on their commentary, then we are to assume a full suite VI question wasn't asked.
    So why do they give out these figures ?
    Polling Council rules?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Really good article (not paywalled) on Holland's poorest village, and the mixed feelings about migrants:

    https://www.ft.com/content/c44350c6-f85f-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Yvette Cooper's intervention was good. She showed the same ability to make a comment that cut through that stood out because it is lacking in the front man. Nothing in this case to do with shades of political opinion, just basic competence or the lack of it.
  • RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    There was a new YouGov today with Con 44%, Lab 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 9%.

    Who remembers the good old days of the daily YouGov? And us all trying to guess whether or not the fact it wasn't tweeted by the Sun in the early evening was a good or bad sign. :smiley:
    Indeed and the resultants = 'tick tock' and 'eicipm'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    The PVV will be up on last time, but down on 2010.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Scott_P said:
    Odds off? Odds off?

    Who did that graphic deserves to be locked in a disused fridge.
    Odd to use Oddschecker than BF I would have thought. The API is a couple of hundred quid IIRC
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Yvette Cooper's intervention was good. She showed the same ability to make a comment that cut through that stood out because it is lacking in the front man. Nothing in this case to do with shades of political opinion, just basic competence or the lack of it.
    That was the only good bit. McDonnell was pathetic. He was backing rich Accountants and Barristers paying less NIC. Corbyn as usual was abysmal.
  • Thank you Mr Meeks - good analysis.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/841996616798212096

    So Phil was not the only cabinet member having a bad day...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    19 seats, not 19%. That's about 13%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,376
    edited March 2017
    duplicate
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

    VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

    PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

    Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.
    Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.
    OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

    I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.
    Well I think there will be a handful - Rotterdam and Limburg (bottom right province) likeliest.

    Might even be >10 but we'll see!!

    Just glad I've booked tomorrow am off work - most of Europe voting on Sunday is just much more civilized than weekday elections!

    Well done to everyone who got on the VVD most seats bet.
    What was staggering was not that the VVD were not favourites but that the PVV were ODDS ON.
    Most of the punters are heavily influenced by the media.
    Indeed. Geert went all BNP too, when he started out UKIP. if you want to be a racist, wear a pin stripe suit!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    rcs1000 said:

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    19 seats, not 19%. That's about 13%.
    Yup, see @dixiedean below :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Really good article (not paywalled) on Holland's poorest village, and the mixed feelings about migrants:

    https://www.ft.com/content/c44350c6-f85f-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71

    Not paywalled if you go through certain search engines like Google.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2017

    AndyJS said:

    It's a pity it doesn't say what the name of the area is when you click on it on the map. Obviously the first two results are from the Frisian Islands.

    Hover with mouse gives name.
    20 years ago 99% of the population would have thought that was a cryptic crossword clue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,690
    rcs1000 said:

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that Wilders is only going to get about 10% of the total vote. He got an awful lot of coverage for that - a bit as though the whole western world was riveted by the performance of the British LibDems.

    The exit poll says 19%... you think the PVV will be down on last time?
    19 seats, not 19%. That's about 13%.
    13% is exactly the total they got in the 2014 Euro elections
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/841996616798212096

    So Phil was not the only cabinet member having a bad day...

    but we mad Bretixteers still don't care.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    There was a new YouGov today with Con 44%, Lab 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 9%.

    Who remembers the good old days of the daily YouGov? And us all trying to guess whether or not the fact it wasn't tweeted by the Sun in the early evening was a good or bad sign. :smiley:
    Indeed and the resultants = 'tick tock' and 'eicipm'
    ELBOW :lol:
  • O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    Sean_F said:

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
    If we had pure PR like the Dutch, and treated the whole UK as single constituency, a party would only need to win 0.17% of the vote to get into Parliament.

    So, in addition to the current parties, the BNP, English Democrats, Socialist Labour Party, TUSC, Mebyon Kernow, Womens' Equality Party, NF, would probably have at least 1 MP, and there'd be a host of religious parties and special interest groups getting into Parliament.
    It would be brilliant from a betting perspective.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.
  • Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
  • O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    Piss artist?
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

  • O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    Piss artist?
    Too high up I'd hope
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,001
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.
    Elect, but not elected ?

  • Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

    So that's a no from you, you don't want to comment on The Telegraph front page.

    Why am I not surprised.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

    So that's a no from you, you don't want to comment on The Telegraph front page.

    Why am I not surprised.
    Not seen the DT front page.

  • O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    Piss artist?
    Too high up I'd hope
    This is a conversation that won't end well.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    My parents have an original Marf™ in their bathroom :smile:
  • Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

    So that's a no from you, you don't want to comment on The Telegraph front page.

    Why am I not surprised.
    Not seen the DT front page.

    Both have been posted on this thread, but you only decided to focus on the FT.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    My parents have an original Marf™ in their bathroom :smile:
    Envious :lol:
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2017

    Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

    So that's a no from you, you don't want to comment on The Telegraph front page.

    Why am I not surprised.
    Not seen the DT front page.

    The one posted after the Indy and FT ones and before your post? That one?

    Should have gone to Specsavers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,885
    edited March 2017

    O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    Piss artist?
    Too high up I'd hope
    This is a conversation that won't end well.
    It will end in a piss off I imagine.
  • O/T workshop at Luton Hoo today - in the Gents above every urinal there are beautifully framed Matt cartoons...

    THAT is how you define a place with class...

    Got some odd looks mind you working my way round.

    Piss artist?
    Too high up I'd hope
    This is a conversation that won't end well.
    It will end in a piss off I imagine.
    As is Scrapheap and I would ever engage in some oneupmanship :lol:
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    surbiton said:

    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Yvette Cooper's intervention was good. She showed the same ability to make a comment that cut through that stood out because it is lacking in the front man. Nothing in this case to do with shades of political opinion, just basic competence or the lack of it.
    That was the only good bit. McDonnell was pathetic. He was backing rich Accountants and Barristers paying less NIC. Corbyn as usual was abysmal.
    I didn't see or hear of Yvette. Any link/clip?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

    The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

    The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.
    Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.
    If we had pure PR like the Dutch, and treated the whole UK as single constituency, a party would only need to win 0.17% of the vote to get into Parliament.

    So, in addition to the current parties, the BNP, English Democrats, Socialist Labour Party, TUSC, Mebyon Kernow, Womens' Equality Party, NF, would probably have at least 1 MP, and there'd be a host of religious parties and special interest groups getting into Parliament.
    What's wrong with that ?
    Precisely. Indeed, imagine we had such a representative parliament, and someone came along and suggested we create a new system to take the seats off all the small parties and hand majority power to a party with 36% of the vote mostly concentrated at one end of the country - everyone would think they were mad.

    Hence all the clamour for non-PR in the Netherlands (not)!
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 894
    edited March 2017
    Finally the 4th result is in!

    Renswoude:

    CDA gain from VVD, VVD down 16 points....

    CDA 22% VVD 21 SGP 21

    Suggests CDA will regain quite a few districts they held in 2010 etc, esp in east of country.

    Green on map but wasn't sure whether it would be CDA, D66, or Greens!!

    Just another 384 to go :(
  • Bojabob said:

    surbiton said:

    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Yvette Cooper's intervention was good. She showed the same ability to make a comment that cut through that stood out because it is lacking in the front man. Nothing in this case to do with shades of political opinion, just basic competence or the lack of it.
    That was the only good bit. McDonnell was pathetic. He was backing rich Accountants and Barristers paying less NIC. Corbyn as usual was abysmal.
    I didn't see or hear of Yvette. Any link/clip?
    https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/841998932481839105
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Euro fanatic FT headline is cut and pasted by Euro fanatics TSE and Scott P. Quelle surprise.

    Always playing the man and not the ball.

    Perhaps you'd like to give your take on the front page of that well known EU fanatic newspaper The Daily Telegraph in case you make yourself look like an even bigger idiot than you already are?
    Your post is a perfect example of playing the man not the ball, no?

    So that's a no from you, you don't want to comment on The Telegraph front page.

    Why am I not surprised.
    Not seen the DT front page.

    Both have been posted on this thread, but you only decided to focus on the FT.
    Just seen the DT. It does not seem to conflate the NIC decision with Brexit unlike the FT. Do you see some sort of link?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Bojabob said:

    surbiton said:

    Bojabob said:

    Evening all.

    I have been entirely unmoved by the mini shambles over NIC. The entire episode has merely exposed again what a tragic excuse for an opposition we have. Labour have out shambled the government.

    Yvette Cooper's intervention was good. She showed the same ability to make a comment that cut through that stood out because it is lacking in the front man. Nothing in this case to do with shades of political opinion, just basic competence or the lack of it.
    That was the only good bit. McDonnell was pathetic. He was backing rich Accountants and Barristers paying less NIC. Corbyn as usual was abysmal.
    I didn't see or hear of Yvette. Any link/clip?
    She wasn't that good, she just answered a bog standard question in a reasonably straightforward way. That people are commenting shows how low the bar has fallen within Labour.
This discussion has been closed.