politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though those who bet that the PVV wouldn’t do it i

Second like Man City.

tlg86 said:

Second like Man City.

Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.

Same time in six months when the dutch finally form a government?

Dutch Green party appear to be winners too.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Second like Man City.

Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.

Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?

On the way they are playing looks a good bet

Mr. 86, did you tip it?

Edited extra bit: I have a feeling you did, and I failed to back it

No dog in that fight, so I hope it comes off

Pulpstar said:

I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

Ditto

If the pattern of the Greens doing well and the mainstream left doing badly is repeated in Germany, my tip of a Jamaica coalition looks sound.

Pulpstar said:

I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

You can still lay her at 4s on BF. Should be more like 8 to 10s if you ask me.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

You can still lay her at 4s on BF. Should be more like 8 to 10s if you ask me.

I'm balls deep (For me) already don't worry

Pulpstar said:

I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

Less of farage-esque escapades this is a family friendly website!

dixiedean said:

PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

The coverage by our media, or lack thereof, on the Northern Ireland Assembly elections was just as embarrassing.

Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

dixiedean said:

PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.

Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.

Wonder what the Express will make of it all?

Mr. Palmer, cheers for that post. Quite interesting to consider how demographics affect turnout/political psychology more widely.

dixiedean said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

dixiedean said:

PVV down considerably on 2010 result. Will British newspapers and Television take a long, hard look at their reporting of this election? Doubt it very much.

Reporting has been atrocious on it all Wilders, Wilders, Wilders.

Because the media are piss scared of getting caught out by another Trump/Brexit.

Wonder what the Express will make of it all?

Shock Diana election victory causes house prices to rocket

66 Left, 76 Right, 8 Unaligned, if the Exit Poll is correct.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Top tipping by Alastair.

I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 Ok... celebration over.

I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.

That was a massive price. 1-10000 more like.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Palmer, cheers for that post. Quite interesting to consider how demographics affect turnout/political psychology more widely.

Replied PT on desert based management consultants

2nd exit poll awfully like the 1st one

Mr. Charles, cheers for that post.

NickPalmer said:

Like Scandinavia, Netherlands generally has very high turnout - combination of small country effect (people tend to feel closer to the political world, and may well know MPs or associates personally) and civic duty culture.

Was reading about the civic culture stemming from the need to make sure dykes were properly maintained and funded. Left or Right, Protestant and Catholic all drown the same!

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Top tipping by Alastair.

I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 Ok... celebration over.

I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.

I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.

You flagged it up, I viewed it as a licence to print money.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Top tipping by Alastair.

I thought I'd tipped it at above 3s but I can only find my comment suggesting getting on at 2.75 Ok... celebration over.

I still remember with great fondness your tip from last year of Dems to win California at 1.05.

I'm pretty certain I said it might suit somebody else!

Incidentally laying Rutte @ 1.12 to be PM looks value. Certainly it looks as if he will head an interim administration, but 85%+ ? far from convinced.

You flagged it up, I viewed it as a licence to print money.

Did you get your full £2.73 on !

Yup.

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

Anyway, I'm off now. Best of luck to Monaco and those who have bets on the Dutch result. Hopefully the points markets for F1 will be up tomorrow.

Now, all they need to do is to count the massive ballot papers!!

https://twitter.com/IngriddeCroon/status/842106132411912193/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

VVD + CDA + D66 I think and it's how they get to 76 after that. Greens? CU + SGP conf/supply? Surely PvdA will want to rebuild in opposition. No results in yet.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles/Mr. Dean, quite.

Mr. Eagles - https://twitter.com/NightmareNerd1/status/842083986373517312

Ate two.

I'll get my toga...

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Second like Man City.

Looks like Leicester might be the only English team in the Quarter Finals.

Have I mentioned that I've backed Monaco for the Champions League at 150-1?

Perhaps Spurs pitiful European campaign was quite as dire as I thought....

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

Oh dear.
How can the Dutch hope to run a civilised society with so many parties?
And they use a hell of a lot of cycles too.
Lost.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

have you met the DUP ?

Pulpstar said:

I'm very comfortable with my Le Pen lay now tbh.

I'm no expert in Dutch politics but I think the foreign media desire to paint Wilders as part of the 'populist' narrative is at fault here. He is not really all that similar to Farage, Le Pen, or Trump. He is a single issue islamophobe extremist, with nothing to say on the economy or even much to say on the EU. Frankly, considering some of his latest comments on moroccan scum, it is still unnerving how highly they have scored.

So I don't know that we can yet interpret this as a backlash against the trumpian populist wave, certainly not in France which is in a very different situation to the Netherlands (worse economy, bigger problems with terrorism etc - much closer to tipping point). Le Pen is much closer to Trump in her overall programme - anti-islam only makes up 1 part of that.

I think it's more likely than not that Macron beats her in round 2 (Fillon would've lost against her, but he is now so damaged that he almost certainly won't make the second round) - but Macron has no real solid base, he is kind of lightweight, and things could easily turn in her favour.

In short, I think there will be a misplaced overreaction against Le Pen following these results.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

50+, the Reformed Party and the CU all lean (to varying degrees) right. Of course, there will now be five months of behind the scenes squabbling over who gets what ministry, while government continues as normal.

If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

Pulpstar said:

If anyone wants a very safe 3% but doesn't mind how long it will take you can lay Wilders at 30 for next PM.

yes, but what are the odds on Erdogan taking over ?

Raheem sterling is utterly shit...That's all.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

You can vote anywhere you happen to be in NL, as it has no constituencies. Therefore, turnout can exceed the population (especially on holiday islands).

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

I was reading that their then leader blamed the German occupation on failure to keep the Sabbath. They've pretty much always won 2% since the 1920's.

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

have you met the DUP ?

The DUP are more liberal.

Sean_F said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

I admire their constancy of purpose and unwillingness to let reality dictate to them.

have you met the DUP ?

The DUP are more liberal.

lol

well depends on who youre talking to :-)

chestnut said:

from The Guardian blog:

Dutch media outlet NOS is reporting that the exit poll could mean that the Labour party, one of the country’s largest has lost a record number of seats.

The numbers would see the PvdA, which was in a coalition government with the Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), go from 38 seats to nine seats. That’s an unprecedented loss in Dutch politics.

Down 29 is unprecedented but somewhat counterintuitively (considering PR) big losses, e.g. 20 seats, are quite common.

The French and Dutch are balls-deep into the EU Project, so will never go full-on Populist.

DoubleCarpet said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

DoubleCarpet said:

3rd result also in, Rozendaal, v wealthy Arnhem suburb, v safe VVD.

VVD wins first 3 - PvdA down 20 points in the island results, D66 & Greens up.

PvdA likely left with v few districts when map complete and may well lose Amsterdam, Gronigen, Utrecht etc.

Map likely to be almost entirely dark blue, despite the VVD losing share.

Fwiw I think there'll be quite a bit of PVV (grey?), quite a few D66 & Greens eg in north, some pockets for CU & SGP. But yes blue will be dominant.

OK DC I'm going to stick my neck out and say no grey at all.

I will write you a FIFA-style apology if there are more than five "constituencies" that go PVV.

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

The figures show why PR can work well - because there are so many parties, one can vote quite precisely for what one wants, but the broad coalitions are reasonably obvious. I think that's really a better system than FPTP, which forces nearly everyone into two lumbering coalitions of people constantly scrapping with each other.

They have twice as many elections to keep it going...!

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

So, VVD + CDA + D66 (essentially a LD - Conservative coalition) looks inevitable, but it'll need someone else to get it over 75 seats?

The oldies? The Christians? The Calvinists? The Animal Lovers? The Environmentalists?

The Calvinists never go into government, though presumably they'd be more likely to vote Right than Left.

Interesting how many different types of parties can pop up inder PR. I wonder what we could have if we had PR.....a Methodist party maybe.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Turnout 96% in Rozendaal!

Edit: oh hang on, reported as 101% in the islands.. 132% last time.

??