politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sturgeon’s SIndy2 isn’t a gamble; it’s a necessity
Comments
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Similar to the point Janan Ganesh made in his article, it seems to me that May may be about to be hoist on her own "you have to threaten to walk away if you want to get what you want / no deal is better than a bad deal" petard.
Now that the Scots have put on the table the threat of walking away from the UK in the event of a bad Brexit deal, that inevitably means there'll be more pressure on May to soften Brexit.0 -
Under FPTP were free movement left unchecked not impossible but entirely hypothetical as May will impose the job offer requirementwilliamglenn said:
But Huffy D thinks they'll sweep to victory if May doesn't ask for a job offer requirement for EU citizens...Pulpstar said:
Because they're uselessMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
Ha ha - the old 'if only everyone would agree with me then we wouldn't be arguing' line. (See also the use of the word 'divisive' as a pejorative term for 'does not agree with me'.)Bojabob said:One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
Edit - I've just re-read this and I sound far more belligerent than I had intended. Apologies if it reads that way.0 -
Sounds like something from the Beano!TheScreamingEagles said:
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
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But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.HYUFD said:
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in StokeMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
Each country (or group of countries) has its/their own accession treaty. Peculiarities to a newly-independent country could be dealt with on that basis.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
More realistically, an independent Scotland would either move very rapidly to Euro membership (though this might be difficult given the current deficit), or would set up its own monetary infrastructure and create its own currency.0 -
The local elections in Scotland will be interesting this year.
I hear the Tories are putting forward additional candidates in wards they were not previously expecting to be competitive in0 -
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Not at all, that's all fair enough.Cookie said:
Ha ha - the old 'if only everyone would agree with me then we wouldn't be arguing' line. (See also the use of the word 'divisive' as a pejorative term for 'does not agree with me'.)Bojabob said:One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
Edit - I've just re-read this and I sound far more belligerent than I had intended. Apologies if it reads that way.0 -
The Tory voteshare also rose in Copeland while the LDs in 2015 had their worst performance since 1970, all there has been has been some minor twitching in the corpseMikeSmithson said:
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.HYUFD said:
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in StokeMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
By the way, I'm deeply disappointed that PB's headline-writers were beaten by Stephen Bush to the "If At First You Don't Secede, Try And Try Again" line.0
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Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
If I had been editing PB yesterday we'd have got that line in.Danny565 said:By the way, I'm deeply disappointed that PB's headline-writers were beaten by Stephen Bush to the "If At First You Don't Secede, Try And Try Again" line.
That said, I've got two of PB's favourite puns lined up for the weekend.
Ajockalypse Now and Scötterdämmerung*
*That one's Alastair's though.0 -
Right so the Lucky 15 is now a super 9 or whatever it is called. Time for Royal Caviar to step up to the plate
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In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
But I thought Unionist logic was that the Scottish economy was going to plung into the abyss tout de suite. Why would anyone want to live in said post-Joxit economic wasteland?HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
I suppose they could be escaping the post-apocalyptic disaster that is apparently inevitable post-Brexit.0 -
It got pulled when we got acquired. I'll send it to you.Sandpit said:
Is it online anywhere? I'm usually good with Google but can't find it.rcs1000 said:
I would point out that I wrote an excellent piece, called Gushing, Oklahoma a few years back (and which was republished by Platt's) predicting almost exactly what has happened.Sandpit said:
Yep, the OPEC countries are shitting themselves - they're no longer the monopoly they once were, and they're no longer in control of worldwide supply and price.rcs1000 said:Re oil price forecasts...
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."
GCC countries are pushing ahead with plan to introduce VAT next year.0 -
Well Scotland isn't short of room unlike say the southeast !Essexit said:
In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Certainly, Scots have similar views on immigration in polls to the English and WelshEssexit said:
In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
@AlastairMeeks mentioned Carry On films as part of Arron Banks' new parties pledges... I hope so! I watched Carry On Abroad for the first time in years the other day, def in my top 10 fav films
https://youtu.be/uBDwrZe8wnU0 -
So they share economic apocalypse with Brexit rUK but without the immigration controls the latter getJohn_M said:
But I thought Unionist logic was that the Scottish economy was going to plung into the abyss tout de suite. Why would anyone want to live in said post-Joxit economic wasteland?HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
I suppose they could be escaping the post-apocalyptic disaster that is apparently inevitable post-Brexit.0 -
John Curtice:
Moreover, the Ipsos MORI poll contained a clear reminder that the degree of enthusiasm for Scotland staying in the EU may well be much less than might be anticipated from the fact that 62% of Scots who voted in the EU referendum voted to Remain. Rather less than half (48%) told the company that an independent Scotland should be a full member of the EU, while as many as 44% seem to be opposed to EU membership (27% stated that Scotland should have ‘full access’ to the single market without being a member of the EU, while 17% answered that Scotland should neither be part of the single market nor of the EU). Even amongst those who said they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, only 64% backed the idea of EU membership – much as only two-thirds of Yes voters backed Remain last June.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/03/did-ms-sturgeons-call-for-indyref2-come-in-the-wake-of-a-swing-to-yes/0 -
It is not Poles and Romanians the Scots don't like but the English .HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Stephen Daisley - It was Hamlet as performed by the Govanhill Amateur Dramatics Society.
"Something important happened yesterday. Nicola Sturgeon resigned as First Minister of Scotland to focus on her main job as head of the SNP campaign to break up Britain."0 -
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You get the gold medal for crossing the line first, not setting a season's best.MikeSmithson said:
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.HYUFD said:
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in StokeMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
When was the last two times a governing party increased its vote in a by-election over the GE score? Glenrothes was one; before that, I think we have to go back to the 1970s? It's rare enough to increase vote share, never mind vote total.0 -
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I'd advise against backing Petit Mouchoir in the 3:30, and Vroum vroum Mag in the Mares if you enjoy money.0
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Briancon said Fillon would definitely go when he addressed the supporter's rally. And then when the meeting between himself and Juppe & Sarko was there.TheScreamingEagles said:
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This news is the equivalent of him being charged.Pulpstar said:
Briancon said Fillon would definitely go when he addressed the supporter's rally. And then when the meeting between himself and Juppe & Sarko was there.TheScreamingEagles said:
If money paid to his children went directly into his account that is pretty damning...0 -
SNP Scots maybeMarkSenior said:
It is not Poles and Romanians the Scots don't like but the English .HYUFD said:
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it insteadJohn_M said:
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Balls of steel on the punter that had £400,000 on Altior to win today.0
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Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created 8 days ago, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....0 -
Because stoking up division is the way to deal with a legitimate demand from Sturgeon that fulfils a manifesto commitment?CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....0 -
David doesn't know too much about the Scottish Parliament. The Greens are enthusiastic supporters of the independence referendum. If May tries to deny a vote from the Scottish Parliament then the SNP won't have to worry about getting a majority in any election - support for them and for independence will increase substantially.0
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THERESA May will trigger Article 50 by strapping a letter to a no-nonsense bulldog that will fly to Brussels in a Spitfire.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/animals/animals-headlines/may-to-send-article-50-letter-strapped-to-a-bulldog-201703141240610 -
"Make Bookmaking Great Again". A great start would be if they could return to being an honest profession by not shutting down accounts or limiting successful punters to pennies.isam said:0 -
'Persecution'? What is it with these petitions and semi literacy.CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....0 -
That's Scottish Education for you.......Theuniondivvie said:
'Persecution'? What is it with these petitions and semi literacy.CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....0 -
The petition question - "We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely".CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!0 -
And, entirely coincidentally of course, the French press are reporting that Marine Le Pen is being pursued by the taxman, under suspicion of under-declaring the value of her assets:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/14/35003-20170314ARTFIG00193-marine-le-pen-soupconnee-d-avoir-sous-evalue-son-patrimoine.php
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Indeed you don't! Just signed from 3,500 miles awaycalum said:
The petition question - "We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely".CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!
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Is Fillon finished?
"Francois Fillon placed under formal investigation"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-392659060 -
Although its small base, much of the opposition appears to be coming from the SNP's historic heartland - the North East......oh well, I expect it will reach 100,000 and get a debate the SNP will boycott.....calum said:
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!CarlottaVance said:Anti-Indyref2 petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/spain-scotland-for-noon-n5rlmzz2z?CMP=Sprkr-_-Editorial-_-thetimes-_-News-_-Unspecified-_-Unspecified-_-Unspecified-_-TWITTER&linkId=35457695
"Spain has told Scotland that it would have to “join the queue” to become a new member of the European Union, if it votes to leave the UK in a second independence referendum. Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, said Madrid opposed any secessionist movements in Europe and it would not support the UK break-up."0 -
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
Well that's one way of boosting the SNP vote.TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
dr_spyn said:
Is Fillon finished?
"Francois Fillon placed under formal investigation"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39265906
Seems like it.
Fillon is filleted.
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Handbags on standby....TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
Watching brief. Druids Nephew is the horse I might have picked though.0
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When even Torrance is saying this about your flagship pro Union org..
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/841654287100973058
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/8416547056044236830 -
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
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NewKIP and UKIP who would win?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/84232/arron-banks-launch-rival-ukip-movement
6% each?0 -
If there is a treaty, Parliament will have to ratify it. If there isn't, they won't.isam said:0 -
Predator..no..Alien..err (that's enough cliched film metaphors-ed)logical_song said:NewKIP and UKIP who would win?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/84232/arron-banks-launch-rival-ukip-movement
6% each?0 -
Eh ? May is nailed on to win in 2020.CarlottaVance said:
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
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0
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Yes, but I doubt a politician of May's experience would presume to prejudge the views of the voters of either Maidenhead or the country beforehand....either of whom could easily stand in her way....TGOHF said:
Eh ? May is nailed on to win in 2020.CarlottaVance said:
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
Ways of "boosting" the SNP vote appear to be similar to indyref2 triggers. Walking , talking , breathing...logical_song said:
Well that's one way of boosting the SNP vote.TGOHF said:https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/84230/nicola-sturgeon-brands-theresa
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."0 -
*** Betting Post ***
Tomorrow, in all likelihood, the PVV or the VVD will come first in the Dutch election. If it's the PVV, how much will Le Pen move on the betting markets? Not much, I'd guess. She's already on more than a 25% chance, which seems high given she trails Macron by circa 20 points. I would guess she'll go from 3.8 to 3.3-3.4.
But what if the PVV doesn't top the polls?
In which case, I reckon the Le Pen price could move out quite sharply. The narrative - of unstoppable populist victories - shrugged off Austria. I don't think it would shrug off the Netherlands so easily. My guess is that she'd move out to 5s. If the PVV were to come third, or fail to get 20 seats (small but real risks), then she might move out even further.
The risk reward looks quite asymmetric to me. Lay Le Pen into the Dutch elections tomorrow.
(As an aside, I wonder if last year's Spanish elections, when the status quo dramatically outperformed on election day could be repeated.)0 -
You don't say!isam said:0 -
And this crime is related to the EU, Brexit or anything else to do with Europe how exactly?isam said:Post brexit hate crime continues
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To go alongside rUK, we now have rUKIP...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/14/ukip-donor-arron-banks-says-he-has-quit-party-to-set-up-ukip-200 -
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.0
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Edited0
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I think that is right, only the Commons can block a ratification. The Lords can be involved in the process though, such as with Lisbon.RoyalBlue said:0 -
I'm a seller at 1:1. How much do you want to buy?rcs1000 said:
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.0 -
Lisbon needed primary legislation, which I assume is why the Lords were involved.RobD said:
I think that is right, only the Commons can block a ratification. The Lords can be involved in the process though, such as with Lisbon.RoyalBlue said:0 -
There isn't an easy analogy between Irish and Scottish independence.Cookie said:
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.Bojabob said:One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
There were two wars in Ireland.
The first was the War of independence against British forces 1919 -1921 which ended with the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 and the partition of Ireland.
The second was the Civil War 1922-23 which was caused by disagreement between the republicans on whether the partition was acceptable.
The consensus In the South of Ireland on the desire for independence was fairly easily won, but the consensus on partition has still not been really settled.
The analogy for Scotland would be a bloody war against English forces if May refuses a referendum, followed by a Scottish civil war between Scottish Republicans who cannot agree that the Borders should remain with England following partition. Unlikely.0 -
Charles said:
I'm a seller at 1:1. How much do you want to buy?rcs1000 said:
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
You wouldn't be the only seller.0 -
Everything that happened post June 23rd 2016 is the fault of Brexitwilliamglenn said:
And this crime is related to the EU, Brexit or anything else to do with Europe how exactly?isam said:Post brexit hate crime continues
0 -
The invocation of Article 50 is a quite particular reason.RobC said:There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
I am in favour of the Union, but there is no arguing the logic of Sturgeon's position. To call it "playing politics", when independence is the raison d'etre of the SNP, is patronising nonsense.0 -
One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.0
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Little Englanders getting worked up I see, and you wonder why a referendum has been called you ********Sandpit said:Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.0 -
Ah, that explains that.david_herdson said:
Lisbon needed primary legislation, which I assume is why the Lords were involved.RobD said:
I think that is right, only the Commons can block a ratification. The Lords can be involved in the process though, such as with Lisbon.RoyalBlue said:
Here's a briefing paper on the matter
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05855/SN05855.pdf
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I made that exact point a few threads ago... a damn shame.TheScreamingEagles said:One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.
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Exactly , it has never been a rule for entry.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
If you voted for Brexit, the fault is all yours.RobD said:
I made that exact point a few threads ago... a damn shame.TheScreamingEagles said:One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.
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Panic Panic , wobble wobble, you not getting clear instructions through Scott.Scott_P said:0 -
Weakest Champion hurdle in years.
The New One will probably end up hacking up after disappointing for years.0 -
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted outPulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
If no-one complains about the patriarchal sexism of 'mandate' I'd be very surprised
0 -
OKC, I will be here for the duration , spouting wisdom.OldKingCole said:
A what??????nunu said:What is the union for? I think we need a bugger conversation about this.
And we’re really missing MalcG’s carefully thought out contributions.0 -
Given the apparent neverendum I would be surprised if the MoD wasn't considering moving it.malcolmg said:
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted outPulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.0 -
The Left will probably blame her for wearing a short skirt.isam said:Post brexit hate crime continues
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/8416649947858083840 -
Pretty good Wiki article on that. Essentially countries need to promise to get round to it one day, rather like repaying War Loan.Philip_Thompson said:
In the same way that Sweden is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro? It is a new member obliged to join too.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_and_the_euro0 -
Yup; we’ll have to rely on leaks from assorted non Brit MEPs and Members of the 27 Parliaments. All of which will be vehemently castigated as untruths until March 31st 2019, when they will all turn out to be true.malcolmg said:
Panic Panic , wobble wobble, you not getting clear instructions through Scott.Scott_P said:0 -
Scotland would be crackers not to enter the Euro rather than sticking with the pound. It'll get a lender of last resort for a start.NickPalmer said:
Pretty good Wiki article on that. Essentially countries need to promise to get round to it one day, rather like repaying War Loan.Philip_Thompson said:
In the same way that Sweden is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro? It is a new member obliged to join too.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_and_the_euro0 -
This tweet is geotagged to Moscow. BET ACCORDINGLY. Putin favours Scottish Independence.
https://twitter.com/YESthatcherDead/status/8416317882923294740 -
Peraps you need a lesson in Lib Dem bar charts.david_herdson said:
You get the gold medal for crossing the line first, not setting a season's best.MikeSmithson said:
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.HYUFD said:
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in StokeMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
When was the last two times a governing party increased its vote in a by-election over the GE score? Glenrothes was one; before that, I think we have to go back to the 1970s? It's rare enough to increase vote share, never mind vote total.
There's a view that Lib Dem optimism is admirable. I'm starting to think they're just a bunch of idiots.0 -
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?0 -
Stands to reason. The same across the whole of the UK government.RobD said:
Given the apparent neverendum I would be surprised if the MoD wasn't considering moving it.malcolmg said:
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted outPulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
There are many parts of the UK that will welcome the work.0 -
A sovereign nation can do what it wants in that regard. I question whether or not it would be a good move.williamglenn said:If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
And no. Not even the Treasury report suggested that.0 -
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?williamglenn said:If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?0
