Nicola Sturgeon's proposed timing for IndyRef2 is ridiculous. Obviously you can't hold it in the middle of the Brexit negotiations.
Equally, though, it's troublesome holding it after the Brexit negotiations, because how can we agree terms with our EU friends if we don't know what country we'll be?
The solution? Hold IndyRef2 immediately. If our Scottish brethren decide to remain in the Union, we can get on with Brexit together with them. If they decide to flounce out, we can get on with Brexit without them, and they can make their own deal with the EU27 ready for Great Separation Day.
I certainly hope so. Besides, two wrongs don't make a right - she was right to resign.
Yep. If you want to be a bank regulator, you have to be above reproach. You've got to be squeaky clean and look squeaky clean. If you want to be the person investigating people for minor breaches of onerous rules, you'd better make sure that every I is dotted and every T is crossed in your own position.
What a stupid stupid thing for Osborne to say! She wasn't made to resign because she was a woman but because she was a regulator who failed to declare a bloody great obvious potential conflict of interest.
Conflicts of interest: recognizing them, knowing how to manage them are the absolute essence of banking and regulation. This is ABC stuff.
Still, I'm not surprised. The BoE was criticized for its failings in the FX matter. Ethics does not seem to have been its strongest suit in recent years.
I expect the idea is that the British will hear nothing but the sound of a ticking clock for three months, and if they phone up M. Barnier, they will get put through to an answerphone that plays "Time Is On My Side".
Watching Pointless and "Sunil" from Nottingham is on!
Wonder if that could be *THE* Sunil? :mopen_mouth:
Beware cheap imitations....
The "Pointless Sunil" is on with a Blogger called Katy, he works in Optics and likes to watch a film a day (and has made a list of films to watch every day since the age of 9)
It's interesting to note that when Ireland voted on the EU constitution / Lisbon Treaty, the turnout increased appreciably from the first to the second vote, with a little over a year between them.
Likewise, turnout increased in the two Danish Maastrict referendums over twenty years ago.
I'd have expected a decrease between first and second. Might we see an increased turnout in Scotland for a second referendum, despite an around 85% turnout in 2014?
It can't increase much from 85%!
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
Mr. Eagles, a few days ago I did sketch a 9 point plan whereby the UK (ex-Scotland) could end up remaining and an independent Scotland not be allowed in. It was mostly silly, but some parts could come true.
I certainly hope so. Besides, two wrongs don't make a right - she was right to resign.
Yep. If you want to be a bank regulator, you have to be above reproach. You've got to be squeaky clean and look squeaky clean. If you want to be the person investigating people for minor breaches of onerous rules, you'd better make sure that every I is dotted and every T is crossed in your own position.
What a stupid stupid thing for Osborne to say! She wasn't made to resign because she was a woman but because she was a regulator who failed to declare a bloody great obvious potential conflict of interest.
Conflicts of interest: recognizing them, knowing how to manage them are the absolute essence of banking and regulation. This is ABC stuff.
Still, I'm not surprised. The BoE was criticized for its failings in the FX matter. Ethics does not seem to have been its strongest suit in recent years.
It's Cyclefree's City Bingo. See how many of these behaviours you can spot in each scandal.
Add sex to that list, or rather the desire to get laid.
I think George has known Charlotte Hogg for years, back in the 90s George Osborne was Douglas Hogg's SPAD when Douglas Hogg was in John Major's cabinet.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
Yep, for once you make sense.
Except, here's a very different voice from the YES side. I bet a lot of the less shrieking Nats are feeling like this. They're exhausted. They don't want another vote. They are reluctant to campaign.
It's interesting to note that when Ireland voted on the EU constitution / Lisbon Treaty, the turnout increased appreciably from the first to the second vote, with a little over a year between them.
Likewise, turnout increased in the two Danish Maastrict referendums over twenty years ago.
I'd have expected a decrease between first and second. Might we see an increased turnout in Scotland for a second referendum, despite an around 85% turnout in 2014?
It can't increase much from 85%!
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
I thought that as well, based on the Irish referendums. However the Danish Maastrict vote turnouts increased fro 83.1 to 86.5, so there was obviously room for a squeeze of DNVs.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
Yep, for once you make sense.
Except, here's a very different voice from the YES side. I bet a lot of the less shrieking Nats are feeling like this. They're exhausted. They don't want another vote. They are reluctant to campaign.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
The only answer is for them to move to a McPoond, then to the Euro.
But who's going to lend money against the McPoond to finance the public spending deficit, and what happens when almost the entire Scottish financial services sector moves to London or Dublin?
It's interesting to note that when Ireland voted on the EU constitution / Lisbon Treaty, the turnout increased appreciably from the first to the second vote, with a little over a year between them.
Likewise, turnout increased in the two Danish Maastrict referendums over twenty years ago.
I'd have expected a decrease between first and second. Might we see an increased turnout in Scotland for a second referendum, despite an around 85% turnout in 2014?
It can't increase much from 85%!
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
It will be interesting to see whether there's any great difference between the new batch of 16 - 17 year-olds' opinions and the last batch.
Add sex to that list, or rather the desire to get laid.
I think George has known Charlotte Hogg for years, back in the 90s George Osborne was Douglas Hogg's SPAD when Douglas Hogg was in John Major's cabinet.
Hang on... you might want to rethink that juxtaposition!
Add sex to that list, or rather the desire to get laid.
I think George has known Charlotte Hogg for years, back in the 90s George Osborne was Douglas Hogg's SPAD when Douglas Hogg was in John Major's cabinet.
Hang on... you might want to rethink that juxtaposition!
Yeah, I had a bombshell just dropped on me as I wrote that.
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Watching Pointless and "Sunil" from Nottingham is on!
Wonder if that could be *THE* Sunil? :mopen_mouth:
Beware cheap imitations....
The "Pointless Sunil" is on with a Blogger called Katy, he works in Optics and likes to watch a film a day (and has made a list of films to watch every day since the age of 9)
There was a clue there: he didn't mention "trains" in the first four words....
It's interesting to note that when Ireland voted on the EU constitution / Lisbon Treaty, the turnout increased appreciably from the first to the second vote, with a little over a year between them.
Likewise, turnout increased in the two Danish Maastrict referendums over twenty years ago.
I'd have expected a decrease between first and second. Might we see an increased turnout in Scotland for a second referendum, despite an around 85% turnout in 2014?
It can't increase much from 85%!
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
I thought that as well, based on the Irish referendums. However the Danish Maastrict vote turnouts increased fro 83.1 to 86.5, so there was obviously room for a squeeze of DNVs.
As a reference point, the last Australian federal election had a turnout of 91%. Voting is compulsory and you get a fine for not voting. Don't know their rules about the contributing turnout factors listed above, but that's one in eleven registered voters that didn't. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2016
"The 27 other members of the EU have pinpointed a meeting of government ministers in Luxembourg on June 20 as the moment to authorize the opening of two years of talks, two EU officials said on condition of anonymity."
In other words, take with a large pinch of salt...
A50 states that the two year clock starts when the letter is sent.
Considering The UK took 9 months from voting to Leave to triggering Article 50 I'm sure we won't be able to complain if the EU take a few months to consider their response.
After June the holidays start, so send the A50 letter in September when the eurocrats get back from the beach.
It's interesting to note that when Ireland voted on the EU constitution / Lisbon Treaty, the turnout increased appreciably from the first to the second vote, with a little over a year between them.
Likewise, turnout increased in the two Danish Maastrict referendums over twenty years ago.
I'd have expected a decrease between first and second. Might we see an increased turnout in Scotland for a second referendum, despite an around 85% turnout in 2014?
It can't increase much from 85%!
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
Big student population many of whom will be double counted as well.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
The only answer is for them to move to a McPoond, then to the Euro.
But who's going to lend money against the McPoond to finance the public spending deficit, and what happens when almost the entire Scottish financial services sector moves to London or Dublin?
Who is currently lending to Croatia or Hungary?
People who charge two to three times as much as they do to lend to the UK?
There's been a huge reversal in the betting odds in the Netherlands GE Most Seats market since Alastair's very timely thread early this morning.
The VVD have since shortened to become odds-on virtually across the board, and are as short as 1.66 (4/6), whereas the PVV have correspondingly lengthened , going out from odds-on to around 2.25 (5/4).
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Don't let that get in the way of a meme desperately trying to gather pace
Watching Pointless and "Sunil" from Nottingham is on!
Wonder if that could be *THE* Sunil? :mopen_mouth:
Beware cheap imitations....
The "Pointless Sunil" is on with a Blogger called Katy, he works in Optics and likes to watch a film a day (and has made a list of films to watch every day since the age of 9)
There was a clue there: he didn't mention "trains" in the first four words....
I thought that... But he might now have wanted to make it too obvious.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
Yep, for once you make sense.
Except, here's a very different voice from the YES side. I bet a lot of the less shrieking Nats are feeling like this. They're exhausted. They don't want another vote. They are reluctant to campaign.
People didn't take down their Yes posters from last time. I pass a dozen on the way to work.
The Noers brave enough to show a Bettertogether/UKOK poster will have taken theirs down because of the persistent threat of getting a Yes brick through their window. We were told on PB that this was the situation in Scotchland many, many times.
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Or those of us that are pro-Brexit and ambidextrous about Sindy...
"The 27 other members of the EU have pinpointed a meeting of government ministers in Luxembourg on June 20 as the moment to authorize the opening of two years of talks, two EU officials said on condition of anonymity."
In other words, take with a large pinch of salt...
A50 states that the two year clock starts when the letter is sent.
Considering The UK took 9 months from voting to Leave to triggering Article 50 I'm sure we won't be able to complain if the EU take a few months to consider their response.
Fair enough, although one wonders what they've been up to in the interim. The point still stands though, it won't be two years of talks from June 20th, it'll be one year and nine months. /pedant
"The 27 other members of the EU have pinpointed a meeting of government ministers in Luxembourg on June 20 as the moment to authorize the opening of two years of talks, two EU officials said on condition of anonymity."
In other words, take with a large pinch of salt...
A50 states that the two year clock starts when the letter is sent.
Considering The UK took 9 months from voting to Leave to triggering Article 50 I'm sure we won't be able to complain if the EU take a few months to consider their response.
Fair enough, although one wonders what they've been up to in the interim. The point still stands though, it won't be two years of talks from June 20th, it'll be one year and nine months. /pedant
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Or those of us that are pro-Brexit and ambidextrous about Sindy...
"Yet despite increases in funding and multiple reforms, there has been little improvement in the educational attainment of the bottom quarter of school students: 17 per cent of students leave school functionally illiterate and 22 per cent are effectively innumerate. These figures are comparable with Albania. As a criteria for success in our modern economy—and by extension our economically fixated society—cognitive ability overshadowed character, competence or experience. The state coped with globalisation not through the reproduction of skills but through the generalisation of knowledge. The result has been a polarised labour market that has created our polarised politics."
I'm down £70 on £105 of stakes. Hoping Rutte can pay for it tommorow, and the rest.......
Ouch.
Fortunately the festivities tomorrow on course have been generously sponsored by PaddyPower this year...
Stake and Return Details Bet placed at 9th of February 2017 3:19 pm Total Stake £20.00 Bet type Double (Each-Way) Tax@Tax free 0 Number of lines 2 Total stake due £20.00 Stake per line £10.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00 Channel Internet Total amount paid £20.00 Number of win lines 2 Number of void lines 0 Standard Returns £394.00 Total Returns £394.00
I'm down £70 on £105 of stakes. Hoping Rutte can pay for it tommorow, and the rest.......
Ouch.
Fortunately the festivities tomorrow on course have been generously sponsored by PaddyPower this year...
Stake and Return Details Bet placed at 9th of February 2017 3:19 pm Total Stake £20.00 Bet type Double (Each-Way) Tax@Tax free 0 Number of lines 2 Total stake due £20.00 Stake per line £10.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00 Channel Internet Total amount paid £20.00 Number of win lines 2 Number of void lines 0 Standard Returns £394.00 Total Returns £394.00
Golly, all the pro Brexit referendum, anti Indy referendum, pro Indy project fear, anti Brexit project fear, pro UK taking back control, anti Scotland taking back control, pro Brexit uncertainty, anti Indy uncertainty crew are in a right, old stew.
Top work lads, take a second Michelin star!
A little unfair on those of us who are Pro Brexit, Pro Sindy.
Or those of us that are pro-Brexit and ambidextrous about Sindy...
Selection Selection Details Result 1 Horse Racing DONCASTER 15:30 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 84y 9th of February 2017 3:30 pm Win or E/W 1/5 places 1,2,3 Three Ways @ 6/1 (GP) Win
Selection Selection Details Result 2 Horse Racing HUNTINGDON 15:20 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 189y 9th of February 2017 3:20 pm Win or E/W 1/4 places 1,2,3 Song Saa @ 4/1 (GP) Win
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
The only answer is for them to move to a McPoond, then to the Euro.
But who's going to lend money against the McPoond to finance the public spending deficit, and what happens when almost the entire Scottish financial services sector moves to London or Dublin?
Who is currently lending to Croatia or Hungary?
Lots of people, but at higher rates than lending to the UK or Genrmany.
The biggest issue is that a new Scottish government wouldn't have a credit rating with lenders, which will initially made it difficult and expensive to sell debt. Ideally they would probably want to move directly from the Pound to the Euro, but that's not possible due to Euro entry convergence criteria, which require an incoming country to have their own currency and use monetary policy to hold it steady in ERM II. They could try and fix a Scottish Pound to a British Pound, but would need to tightly control public spending and push exports, against a lot of speculators betting against the peg - they would need a lot of hard currency reserves which would be difficult to accumulate quickly.
It's a big problem for any new country, especially so if they wish to join the Euro and have a sizeable financial services industry. These are just economic issues rather than political issues.
@SkyNewsBreak: Leaked emails seen by Sky News suggest Conservative MPs are being used as scapegoats by their party over 2015 election mis-spending claims
@SkyNewsBreak: Leaked emails seen by Sky News suggest Conservative MPs are being used as scapegoats by their party over 2015 election mis-spending claims
@SkyNewsBreak: Leaked emails seen by Sky News suggest Conservative MPs are being used as scapegoats by their party over 2015 election mis-spending claims
Civil war is about to start in the Tory Party.
If it didn't start over Europe, I don't think it is going to start after this.
but that's not possible due to Euro entry convergence criteria, which require an incoming country to have their own currency and use monetary policy to hold it steady in ERM II.
The EU will bring out its oldest trick for this one.
I don't suppose my near namesake PtP has posted on PB.com today to share the benefit of his tips for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. I had hoped against hope that he might have made a rare guest appearance, but seemingly not.
Peter, should you read this, you're greatly missed.
Walking away would turn it into a financial pariah. It would also deeply complicate its bid to join the EU. Some countries might want to veto a country that refuses to pay its debts. Like, say, Spain.
Well the Baltic states walked away from their Soviet debts and have been welcomed into the EU.
On 4 December 1991 the former republics of the Soviet Union signed the treaty on the division of the Soviet foreign debt. The Baltic states refused to sign. In 1993, the Russian Federation announced it would alone be responsible for the debt.
That might be because they were forced into the Soviet Union through invasion 45 years earlier.
And, as that Wiki link demonstrates, many countries never recognised their annexation.
Comments
Equally, though, it's troublesome holding it after the Brexit negotiations, because how can we agree terms with our EU friends if we don't know what country we'll be?
The solution? Hold IndyRef2 immediately. If our Scottish brethren decide to remain in the Union, we can get on with Brexit together with them. If they decide to flounce out, we can get on with Brexit without them, and they can make their own deal with the EU27 ready for Great Separation Day.
Conflicts of interest: recognizing them, knowing how to manage them are the absolute essence of banking and regulation. This is ABC stuff.
Still, I'm not surprised. The BoE was criticized for its failings in the FX matter. Ethics does not seem to have been its strongest suit in recent years.
5 behaviours crop up with tedious regularity:
- Greed
- Stupidity
- Complacency
- Hubris
- Cowardice.
It's Cyclefree's City Bingo. See how many of these behaviours you can spot in each scandal.
There will be people who have moved, are travelling, in hospital, prison or have died, as well as students registered twice. These are all counted against the turnout, even though they can't vote on the day. That 85% was probably about 95-98% in practice.
I think George has known Charlotte Hogg for years, back in the 90s George Osborne was Douglas Hogg's SPAD when Douglas Hogg was in John Major's cabinet.
The Thanet South MP is being probed for overspending in the bitter 2015 fight to keep Ukip’s Nigel Farage out of the Commons.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3089922/tory-mp-craig-mackinlay-interviewed-by-police-about-his-election-expenses-in-2015-fight-to-keep-nigel-farage-out-of-parliament/
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/841700228910764032
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2016
The headline in that 1995 scandal should have been 'The BONK of England'
Re: Previous Thread:
There's been a huge reversal in the betting odds in the Netherlands GE Most Seats market since Alastair's very timely thread early this morning.
The VVD have since shortened to become odds-on virtually across the board, and are as short as 1.66 (4/6), whereas the PVV have correspondingly lengthened , going out from odds-on to around 2.25 (5/4).
Great tipping from Mr Meeks it would appear.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/why-brexit-is-a-chance-for-national-renewal
Fortunately the festivities tomorrow on course have been generously sponsored by PaddyPower this year...
Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at 9th of February 2017 3:19 pm Total Stake £20.00
Bet type Double (Each-Way) Tax@Tax free 0
Number of lines 2 Total stake due £20.00
Stake per line £10.00 Freebets Redeemed £0.00
Channel Internet Total amount paid £20.00
Number of win lines 2
Number of void lines 0 Standard Returns £394.00
Total Returns £394.00
https://twitter.com/ForceIndiaF1/status/841635395804774400
1
Horse Racing
DONCASTER
15:30 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 84y
9th of February 2017 3:30 pm
Win or E/W
1/5 places 1,2,3
Three Ways @ 6/1 (GP)
Win
Selection Selection Details Result
2
Horse Racing
HUNTINGDON
15:20 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 3f 189y
9th of February 2017 3:20 pm
Win or E/W
1/4 places 1,2,3
Song Saa @ 4/1 (GP)
Win
The biggest issue is that a new Scottish government wouldn't have a credit rating with lenders, which will initially made it difficult and expensive to sell debt. Ideally they would probably want to move directly from the Pound to the Euro, but that's not possible due to Euro entry convergence criteria, which require an incoming country to have their own currency and use monetary policy to hold it steady in ERM II. They could try and fix a Scottish Pound to a British Pound, but would need to tightly control public spending and push exports, against a lot of speculators betting against the peg - they would need a lot of hard currency reserves which would be difficult to accumulate quickly.
It's a big problem for any new country, especially so if they wish to join the Euro and have a sizeable financial services industry. These are just economic issues rather than political issues.
NEW THREAD
Fudgey McFudgecake.
I had hoped against hope that he might have made a rare guest appearance, but seemingly not.
Peter, should you read this, you're greatly missed.