Similar to the point Janan Ganesh made in his article, it seems to me that May may be about to be hoist on her own "you have to threaten to walk away if you want to get what you want / no deal is better than a bad deal" petard.
Now that the Scots have put on the table the threat of walking away from the UK in the event of a bad Brexit deal, that inevitably means there'll be more pressure on May to soften Brexit.
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differ
No, they elect an MP.
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticket
Piddling small change. Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?
Because they're useless
But Huffy D thinks they'll sweep to victory if May doesn't ask for a job offer requirement for EU citizens...
Under FPTP were free movement left unchecked not impossible but entirely hypothetical as May will impose the job offer requirement
One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
Ha ha - the old 'if only everyone would agree with me then we wouldn't be arguing' line. (See also the use of the word 'divisive' as a pejorative term for 'does not agree with me'.)
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
Edit - I've just re-read this and I sound far more belligerent than I had intended. Apologies if it reads that way.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differ
No, they elect an MP.
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticket
Piddling small change. Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in Stoke
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
Each country (or group of countries) has its/their own accession treaty. Peculiarities to a newly-independent country could be dealt with on that basis.
More realistically, an independent Scotland would either move very rapidly to Euro membership (though this might be difficult given the current deficit), or would set up its own monetary infrastructure and create its own currency.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
Ha ha - the old 'if only everyone would agree with me then we wouldn't be arguing' line. (See also the use of the word 'divisive' as a pejorative term for 'does not agree with me'.)
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
Edit - I've just re-read this and I sound far more belligerent than I had intended. Apologies if it reads that way.
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differ
No, they elect an MP.
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticket
Piddling small change. Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in Stoke
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.
The Tory voteshare also rose in Copeland while the LDs in 2015 had their worst performance since 1970, all there has been has been some minor twitching in the corpse
By the way, I'm deeply disappointed that PB's headline-writers were beaten by Stephen Bush to the "If At First You Don't Secede, Try And Try Again" line.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
By the way, I'm deeply disappointed that PB's headline-writers were beaten by Stephen Bush to the "If At First You Don't Secede, Try And Try Again" line.
If I had been editing PB yesterday we'd have got that line in.
That said, I've got two of PB's favourite puns lined up for the weekend.
By the way, I'm deeply disappointed that PB's headline-writers were beaten by Stephen Bush to the "If At First You Don't Secede, Try And Try Again" line.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
But I thought Unionist logic was that the Scottish economy was going to plung into the abyss tout de suite. Why would anyone want to live in said post-Joxit economic wasteland?
I suppose they could be escaping the post-apocalyptic disaster that is apparently inevitable post-Brexit.
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."
Yep, the OPEC countries are shitting themselves - they're no longer the monopoly they once were, and they're no longer in control of worldwide supply and price.
GCC countries are pushing ahead with plan to introduce VAT next year.
I would point out that I wrote an excellent piece, called Gushing, Oklahoma a few years back (and which was republished by Platt's) predicting almost exactly what has happened.
Is it online anywhere? I'm usually good with Google but can't find it.
It got pulled when we got acquired. I'll send it to you.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.
Well Scotland isn't short of room unlike say the southeast !
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
In the SNP's rather daft worldview, ordinary Scots would welcome them with open arms. They'd be in for a shock.
Certainly, Scots have similar views on immigration in polls to the English and Welsh
@AlastairMeeks mentioned Carry On films as part of Arron Banks' new parties pledges... I hope so! I watched Carry On Abroad for the first time in years the other day, def in my top 10 fav films
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
But I thought Unionist logic was that the Scottish economy was going to plung into the abyss tout de suite. Why would anyone want to live in said post-Joxit economic wasteland?
I suppose they could be escaping the post-apocalyptic disaster that is apparently inevitable post-Brexit.
So they share economic apocalypse with Brexit rUK but without the immigration controls the latter get
Moreover, the Ipsos MORI poll contained a clear reminder that the degree of enthusiasm for Scotland staying in the EU may well be much less than might be anticipated from the fact that 62% of Scots who voted in the EU referendum voted to Remain. Rather less than half (48%) told the company that an independent Scotland should be a full member of the EU, while as many as 44% seem to be opposed to EU membership (27% stated that Scotland should have ‘full access’ to the single market without being a member of the EU, while 17% answered that Scotland should neither be part of the single market nor of the EU). Even amongst those who said they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, only 64% backed the idea of EU membership – much as only two-thirds of Yes voters backed Remain last June.
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
It is not Poles and Romanians the Scots don't like but the English .
"Something important happened yesterday. Nicola Sturgeon resigned as First Minister of Scotland to focus on her main job as head of the SNP campaign to break up Britain."
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differ
No, they elect an MP.
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticket
Piddling small change. Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in Stoke
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.
You get the gold medal for crossing the line first, not setting a season's best.
When was the last two times a governing party increased its vote in a by-election over the GE score? Glenrothes was one; before that, I think we have to go back to the 1970s? It's rare enough to increase vote share, never mind vote total.
Briancon said Fillon would definitely go when he addressed the supporter's rally. And then when the meeting between himself and Juppe & Sarko was there.
Briancon said Fillon would definitely go when he addressed the supporter's rally. And then when the meeting between himself and Juppe & Sarko was there.
This news is the equivalent of him being charged.
If money paid to his children went directly into his account that is pretty damning...
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexit
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU too
Mass immigration is more an English issue. EU citizens make up around 3.4% of the Scottish population, the majority of whom are Polish. Those citizens are mostly concentrated in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. I think Scotland can cope just fine.
Tell that to them when all the Poles and Romanians heading south of Hadrian's Wall head north of it instead
It is not Poles and Romanians the Scots don't like but the English .
David doesn't know too much about the Scottish Parliament. The Greens are enthusiastic supporters of the independence referendum. If May tries to deny a vote from the Scottish Parliament then the SNP won't have to worry about getting a majority in any election - support for them and for independence will increase substantially.
"Make Bookmaking Great Again". A great start would be if they could return to being an honest profession by not shutting down accounts or limiting successful punters to pennies.
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
The petition question - "We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely".
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!
And, entirely coincidentally of course, the French press are reporting that Marine Le Pen is being pursued by the taxman, under suspicion of under-declaring the value of her assets:
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
The petition question - "We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely".
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!
Indeed you don't! Just signed from 3,500 miles away
Created last August, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!
Although its small base, much of the opposition appears to be coming from the SNP's historic heartland - the North East......oh well, I expect it will reach 100,000 and get a debate the SNP will boycott.....
"Spain has told Scotland that it would have to “join the queue” to become a new member of the European Union, if it votes to leave the UK in a second independence referendum. Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, said Madrid opposed any secessionist movements in Europe and it would not support the UK break-up."
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
Pretty dubious given I doubt Mrs May presumes that she will be PM in 2021 (however unlikely any alternative is...), given she has to face the electorate in 2020.......
Eh ? May is nailed on to win in 2020.
Yes, but I doubt a politician of May's experience would presume to prejudge the views of the voters of either Maidenhead or the country beforehand....either of whom could easily stand in her way....
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
Well that's one way of boosting the SNP vote.
Ways of "boosting" the SNP vote appear to be similar to indyref2 triggers. Walking , talking , breathing...
Tomorrow, in all likelihood, the PVV or the VVD will come first in the Dutch election. If it's the PVV, how much will Le Pen move on the betting markets? Not much, I'd guess. She's already on more than a 25% chance, which seems high given she trails Macron by circa 20 points. I would guess she'll go from 3.8 to 3.3-3.4.
But what if the PVV doesn't top the polls?
In which case, I reckon the Le Pen price could move out quite sharply. The narrative - of unstoppable populist victories - shrugged off Austria. I don't think it would shrug off the Netherlands so easily. My guess is that she'd move out to 5s. If the PVV were to come third, or fail to get 20 seats (small but real risks), then she might move out even further.
The risk reward looks quite asymmetric to me. Lay Le Pen into the Dutch elections tomorrow.
(As an aside, I wonder if last year's Spanish elections, when the status quo dramatically outperformed on election day could be repeated.)
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.
One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
There isn't an easy analogy between Irish and Scottish independence.
There were two wars in Ireland.
The first was the War of independence against British forces 1919 -1921 which ended with the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 and the partition of Ireland.
The second was the Civil War 1922-23 which was caused by disagreement between the republicans on whether the partition was acceptable.
The consensus In the South of Ireland on the desire for independence was fairly easily won, but the consensus on partition has still not been really settled.
The analogy for Scotland would be a bloody war against English forces if May refuses a referendum, followed by a Scottish civil war between Scottish Republicans who cannot agree that the Borders should remain with England following partition. Unlikely.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
The invocation of Article 50 is a quite particular reason.
I am in favour of the Union, but there is no arguing the logic of Sturgeon's position. To call it "playing politics", when independence is the raison d'etre of the SNP, is patronising nonsense.
One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.
Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.
Little Englanders getting worked up I see, and you wonder why a referendum has been called you ********
One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.
I made that exact point a few threads ago... a damn shame.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
One of the real downsides of Brexit and Indyref2 is that I don't think PB will have any time over the next two years or so to do any threads on AV and electoral reform.
I made that exact point a few threads ago... a damn shame.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted out
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted out
Given the apparent neverendum I would be surprised if the MoD wasn't considering moving it.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
In the same way that Sweden is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro? It is a new member obliged to join too.
Panic Panic , wobble wobble, you not getting clear instructions through Scott.
Yup; we’ll have to rely on leaks from assorted non Brit MEPs and Members of the 27 Parliaments. All of which will be vehemently castigated as untruths until March 31st 2019, when they will all turn out to be true.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
In the same way that Sweden is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro? It is a new member obliged to join too.
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differ
No, they elect an MP.
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticket
Piddling small change. Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in Stoke
But CON dropped actual votes in Copeland just as they have done in every post-BREXIT by-election. The LDs, by contrast, have increased actual votes in every contest.
You get the gold medal for crossing the line first, not setting a season's best.
When was the last two times a governing party increased its vote in a by-election over the GE score? Glenrothes was one; before that, I think we have to go back to the 1970s? It's rare enough to increase vote share, never mind vote total.
Peraps you need a lesson in Lib Dem bar charts.
There's a view that Lib Dem optimism is admirable. I'm starting to think they're just a bunch of idiots.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
We will live off the Trident rent until we are sorted out
Given the apparent neverendum I would be surprised if the MoD wasn't considering moving it.
Stands to reason. The same across the whole of the UK government.
There are many parts of the UK that will welcome the work.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
A sovereign nation can do what it wants in that regard. I question whether or not it would be a good move.
And no. Not even the Treasury report suggested that.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Comments
Now that the Scots have put on the table the threat of walking away from the UK in the event of a bad Brexit deal, that inevitably means there'll be more pressure on May to soften Brexit.
I do take your point, Bob - but the consensus in favour of independence in Ireland was hard-won, with partition, a civil war and a long period of emigration of those on the losing side of the argument (along with half a century of economic torpor). I accept that Ireland is in a pretty happy place now, but the twentieth century experience of Ireland isn't perhaps one to encourage wavering Scots to take the plunge.
Edit - I've just re-read this and I sound far more belligerent than I had intended. Apologies if it reads that way.
More realistically, an independent Scotland would either move very rapidly to Euro membership (though this might be difficult given the current deficit), or would set up its own monetary infrastructure and create its own currency.
I hear the Tories are putting forward additional candidates in wards they were not previously expecting to be competitive in
That said, I've got two of PB's favourite puns lined up for the weekend.
Ajockalypse Now and Scötterdämmerung*
*That one's Alastair's though.
I suppose they could be escaping the post-apocalyptic disaster that is apparently inevitable post-Brexit.
https://youtu.be/uBDwrZe8wnU
Moreover, the Ipsos MORI poll contained a clear reminder that the degree of enthusiasm for Scotland staying in the EU may well be much less than might be anticipated from the fact that 62% of Scots who voted in the EU referendum voted to Remain. Rather less than half (48%) told the company that an independent Scotland should be a full member of the EU, while as many as 44% seem to be opposed to EU membership (27% stated that Scotland should have ‘full access’ to the single market without being a member of the EU, while 17% answered that Scotland should neither be part of the single market nor of the EU). Even amongst those who said they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, only 64% backed the idea of EU membership – much as only two-thirds of Yes voters backed Remain last June.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/03/did-ms-sturgeons-call-for-indyref2-come-in-the-wake-of-a-swing-to-yes/
"Something important happened yesterday. Nicola Sturgeon resigned as First Minister of Scotland to focus on her main job as head of the SNP campaign to break up Britain."
When was the last two times a governing party increased its vote in a by-election over the GE score? Glenrothes was one; before that, I think we have to go back to the 1970s? It's rare enough to increase vote share, never mind vote total.
http://thirdforcenews.org.uk/blogs/kirk-calls-on-uk-government-to-respect-will-of-scottish-parliament?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=Oktopost-twitter-profile&utm_campaign=Oktopost-2017-03+General+Campaign
Boom Boom!
If money paid to his children went directly into his account that is pretty damning...
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Created 8 days ago, but rapidly racking up signatures now.....
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/animals/animals-headlines/may-to-send-article-50-letter-strapped-to-a-bulldog-20170314124061
Click on the map of signatories and you'll see actually being in Scotland is not a requirement for being able to sign the petition - you don't even need to be in the UK !!
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/14/35003-20170314ARTFIG00193-marine-le-pen-soupconnee-d-avoir-sous-evalue-son-patrimoine.php
https://twitter.com/CarlBeijer/status/841649413009346562
"Francois Fillon placed under formal investigation"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39265906
"Spain has told Scotland that it would have to “join the queue” to become a new member of the European Union, if it votes to leave the UK in a second independence referendum. Alfonso Dastis, the Spanish foreign minister, said Madrid opposed any secessionist movements in Europe and it would not support the UK break-up."
"The highly-personal Twitter barb was thrown after reports Mrs May will tell the SNP they must win an outright majority at Holyrood in 2021 before she will agree to a new referendum."
Seems like it.
Fillon is filleted.
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/841654287100973058
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/841654705604423683
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/84232/arron-banks-launch-rival-ukip-movement
6% each?
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/841664994785808384
Tomorrow, in all likelihood, the PVV or the VVD will come first in the Dutch election. If it's the PVV, how much will Le Pen move on the betting markets? Not much, I'd guess. She's already on more than a 25% chance, which seems high given she trails Macron by circa 20 points. I would guess she'll go from 3.8 to 3.3-3.4.
But what if the PVV doesn't top the polls?
In which case, I reckon the Le Pen price could move out quite sharply. The narrative - of unstoppable populist victories - shrugged off Austria. I don't think it would shrug off the Netherlands so easily. My guess is that she'd move out to 5s. If the PVV were to come third, or fail to get 20 seats (small but real risks), then she might move out even further.
The risk reward looks quite asymmetric to me. Lay Le Pen into the Dutch elections tomorrow.
(As an aside, I wonder if last year's Spanish elections, when the status quo dramatically outperformed on election day could be repeated.)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/14/ukip-donor-arron-banks-says-he-has-quit-party-to-set-up-ukip-20
There were two wars in Ireland.
The first was the War of independence against British forces 1919 -1921 which ended with the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 and the partition of Ireland.
The second was the Civil War 1922-23 which was caused by disagreement between the republicans on whether the partition was acceptable.
The consensus In the South of Ireland on the desire for independence was fairly easily won, but the consensus on partition has still not been really settled.
The analogy for Scotland would be a bloody war against English forces if May refuses a referendum, followed by a Scottish civil war between Scottish Republicans who cannot agree that the Borders should remain with England following partition. Unlikely.
You wouldn't be the only seller.
I am in favour of the Union, but there is no arguing the logic of Sturgeon's position. To call it "playing politics", when independence is the raison d'etre of the SNP, is patronising nonsense.
Here's a briefing paper on the matter
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05855/SN05855.pdf
The New One will probably end up hacking up after disappointing for years.
If no-one complains about the patriarchal sexism of 'mandate' I'd be very surprised
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_and_the_euro
https://twitter.com/YESthatcherDead/status/841631788292329474
There's a view that Lib Dem optimism is admirable. I'm starting to think they're just a bunch of idiots.
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
There are many parts of the UK that will welcome the work.
And no. Not even the Treasury report suggested that.