No surprise that the same hurdles are still in place from Indyref(1). Nothing has changed fundamentally other than the oil price has collapsed and the Jocks are sick of referendums.
Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.
Little Englanders getting worked up I see, and you wonder why a referendum has been called you ********
I see that there will be as much politeness and civility this time around, as there was a couple of years ago.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Stands to reason. The same across the whole of the UK government.
There are many parts of the UK that will welcome the work.
Always good to think of your kids' employment prospects.
'Trident is removed from Scotland, what next?
41. As a result, Professor Walker thought it might take twenty years or longer:
Yes, but 20 years might be a minimum; it might be longer than that. You would have to sustain your political will and funding for a very long time. I don't know whether the political parties could agree upon that and exactly what the ramifications would be. The process of finding a site might take five to 10 years, and then being sure you have one, and all the engineering and construction works, mean it could be a long time.[76]
42. Dr O'Brien thought it might be completed in fewer than twenty years, possibly 10 or 15, but only with an enormous amount of resources, no objections and cross-party support, and even then he thought it unlikely.'
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
Have things changed since the last time?
'Treasury promises to honour UK debts up to date of Scottish independence'
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
Debt is £1.682 bn. Notionally Scotland's share is £135bn.
They have a deficit running at £15bn a year.
At the present annual rate they'd run up 300 years worth of 'UK Scottish' debt in under a decade.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
And an equally big one between those saying the UK should cough up zero, and the Scots take on a lump of debt.
Betting note: just in case anyone was in doubt, it is now more or less impossible for another Republicain candidate to step in to replace Fillon. Nominations need to be in by Thursday with 500 signatures of elected officials.
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
A country with a very large deficit, looking for a new currency, that has defaulted on its share of UK debt.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
And an equally big one between those saying the UK should cough up zero, and the Scots take on a lump of debt.
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
That final paragraph is very pleasing to read.
I've extended my position by a ton against the PVV.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
As a family with deep ties to Scotland we believe that another few years of turmoil is regretable and if Scotland votes for Independence we would be disappointed on an emotion basis but not on any economic arguments.
The debate in the Scottish Parliament next week and the following week will be as rancorous as anything seen in the HOC with the conservatives, labour and the lib dems tearing into the SNP and Greens. Furthermore this divisive situation will find it's way into the May elections and beyond.
If anyone thinks the A50 notice is causing anger this will now be replicated in Scotland but likely to destabilise the Scots economy for years to come. Notice the SNP have been phoning businesses since the annoucement and are getting a poor response
So the UK is struggling with Brexit but thanks to Nicola Scotland will be in much the same position
We really do need everyone to calm down and reflect for all our piece of minds
Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.
Little Englanders getting worked up I see, and you wonder why a referendum has been called you ********
I see that there will be as much politeness and civility this time around, as there was a couple of years ago.
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
I would point out that I&O has been by far the most PVV-sceptic of the pollsters. (That being said, the PVV has tended to underperform its polling *averages*, so they might be right.)
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
I would point out that I&O has been by far the most PVV-sceptic of the pollsters. (That being said, the PVV has tended to underperform its polling *averages*, so they might be right.)
Peil has picked up an increase in support for the VVD as well, and also CDA slightly up with them. If there is a dark horse, it might just be the CDA..
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
If Scotland decides to walk away from UK debt, then we would have to enforce the Hardest Joxit possible, the politics would be utterly venomous. There would be tariffs on everything coming south of the border, visa requirements for Scots, immediate removal of all UK assets in Scotland, it would be close to a bloody cold war. England would possibly go into recession, Scotland would probably go into Depression.
The groat, allegedly pegged to the £, would be worth 30p, with no lender of last resort.
How are you going to calculate Scotland's share of the debt? How are you going to apportion assets and liabilities to her?
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
I would point out that I&O has been by far the most PVV-sceptic of the pollsters. (That being said, the PVV has tended to underperform its polling *averages*, so they might be right.)
Peil has picked up an increase in support for the VVD as well, and also CDA slightly up with them. If there is a dark horse, it might just be the CDA..
Amazingly, the PVV is still odds on to have most seats on Betfair. I've sold it in small quantities, and made tiny (£10!) bets on CDA and D66 to top the polls as they have tended to outperform their poll ratings.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
If Scotland decides to walk away from UK debt, then we would have to enforce the Hardest Joxit possible, the politics would be utterly venomous. There would be tariffs on everything coming south of the border, visa requirements for Scots, immediate removal of all UK assets in Scotland, it would be close to a bloody cold war. England would possibly go into recession, Scotland would probably go into Depression.
The groat, allegedly pegged to the £, would be worth 30p, with no lender of last resort.
You rather nicely make my point, which is that there is a lot of posturing on both sides. Should it happen, then we will negotiate - and it will be neither as favourable as Malcolm might claim, nor as calamitous as Carlotta...
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
The UK will not pay £60bn, but I've no doubt we will pay some to the EU, as some of it is justified (pensions etc).
Similarly, I am pretty sure iScotland would pay its share of UK debt. Walking away would turn it into a financial pariah. It would also deeply complicate its bid to join the EU. Some countries might want to veto a country that refuses to pay its debts. Like, say, Spain.
Spain has many more reasons to veto Scotland's application to join the EU
Walking away would turn it into a financial pariah. It would also deeply complicate its bid to join the EU. Some countries might want to veto a country that refuses to pay its debts. Like, say, Spain.
Well the Baltic states walked away from their Soviet debts and have been welcomed into the EU.
On 4 December 1991 the former republics of the Soviet Union signed the treaty on the division of the Soviet foreign debt. The Baltic states refused to sign. In 1993, the Russian Federation announced it would alone be responsible for the debt.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that though. Saying that £60bn is ludicrous and we're also entitled to a share of assets is quite reasonable.
Fillon's a sod. If he'd buggered off then whether it were Juppe or Benoit who replaced him, I'd have been set fair. Still green, but by much less than I would have been.
Edited extra bit: still no points markets on the spreads, just the ranking markets (which I dislike).
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
I assume you've piled on 2018 off the back of this steer.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
The UK will not pay £60bn, but I've no doubt we will pay some to the EU, as some of it is justified (pensions etc).
Similarly, I am pretty sure iScotland would pay its share of UK debt. Walking away would turn it into a financial pariah. It would also deeply complicate its bid to join the EU. Some countries might want to veto a country that refuses to pay its debts. Like, say, Spain.
Spain has many more reasons to veto Scotland's application to join the EU
Spain has said they will on camera from Strasbourg today
Walking away would turn it into a financial pariah. It would also deeply complicate its bid to join the EU. Some countries might want to veto a country that refuses to pay its debts. Like, say, Spain.
Well the Baltic states walked away from their Soviet debts and have been welcomed into the EU.
On 4 December 1991 the former republics of the Soviet Union signed the treaty on the division of the Soviet foreign debt. The Baltic states refused to sign. In 1993, the Russian Federation announced it would alone be responsible for the debt.
That might be because they were forced into the Soviet Union through invasion 45 years earlier.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient mome post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
Do you seriously think TMay will allow an indyref before Brexit is concluded. She can't. Of course she can't. Sturgeon knows this.
Sturgeon's gamble depends heavily on how public opinion in Scotland reacts in the coming weeks. If you start to see polls with support above 50% and a feeling of inevitability then it will be hard for May to resist. On the other hand if support falls back, or stays stuck, then May can possibly afford to wait it out and hope the SNP run aground over some other issue.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient moment for the SNP to have one - in any case I'd argue the opposite - uncertainty over Brexit outcomes in the real world (rather than on paper) and even an overdue recession would make it very difficult for the nationalists to win. Tony Benn always argued change more often occurs in good times (eg remember Major winning an election in 1992 despite a deep recession and Blair won in 1997 despite a much improved economy under Ken Clarke's stewardship) . However there might be a better case for setting a date in stone say September 2024 10 years after the previous one. That's about half a generation and some prominent remain figures from 2014 won't be around by then. The Scottish people if they don't like the path the post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
It seems fairly reasonable for her to say that the Scottish people, along with everyone else, will be getting an opportunity to express their feelings in 2020. Furthermore, the devolved adminstrations are up for post Brexit election again in 2021.
There is no need for a referendum in advance of these things.
On the other hand, while leaving the EU is unprecedented, there are countless examples of countries splitting up quickly and reasonably amicably. It could be the easier of the two to negotiate.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient mome post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
Do you seriously think TMay will allow an indyref before Brexit is concluded. She can't. Of course she can't. Sturgeon knows this.
So it will be 2019 at the earliest. It will have to be late 2019 as they will need six months after calling it, to have the campaign.
That is the most likely date for this vote. 2019. But if it isn't 2019, it will be because TMay has gone hardcore and demanded a new Holyrood election first.
"DOWNING STREET and the Scottish Tories think they might have hit upon a way to frustrate Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a second Scottish independence referendum.
They won’t refuse outright any Sturgeon demand for a new poll. But they will instead insist that it waits until after Brexit and, crucially, after it is clear what relationship with the EU an independent Scotland could have.
They calculate that this would mean that the referendum could not take place until 2021. The result of this: Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalists and their Green allies would have to win another majority in the Scottish parliamentary elections to hold a referendum."
I was actually pulling your chain re: your closing paragraph (a huge range of option, followed by a bet accordingly call to action). My post wasn't entirely serious. Still, I think May is in the shit – she now has a European problem, an Irish problem (possibly severe) and a Scottish problem to face in the next few years. Commanders of triangular battle fronts rarely prosper.
On debt, what the Scottish Government said last time:
The apportionment of the UK national debt will be negotiated and agreed. The national debt could be apportioned by reference to the historic contribution made to the UK’s public finances by Scotland, or on the basis of our population share. We may choose to offset Scotland’s share of the value of UK assets against our inherited debt. On any realistic calculation Scotland’s inherited debt is projected to be a lower proportion of GDP than is the case for the UK as a whole
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
If Scotland decides to walk away from UK debt, then we would have to enforce the Hardest Joxit possible, the politics would be utterly venomous. There would be tariffs on everything coming south of the border, visa requirements for Scots, immediate removal of all UK assets in Scotland, it would be close to a bloody cold war. England would possibly go into recession, Scotland would probably go into Depression.
The groat, allegedly pegged to the £, would be worth 30p, with no lender of last resort.
How are you going to calculate Scotland's share of the debt? How are you going to apportion assets and liabilities to her?
Fuck knows. I'm not the one calling for Joxit.
But it will have to be done. Years of haggling. And just as many europhiles like you point out (with some justification) that the EU holds most of the cards in Brexit, as being the bigger partner, rUK will hold most of the cards in Joxit, as being the bigger player (especially now the oil has gone). rUK could force a very hard deal indeed.
There will be no EU to protect either side, or interfere with the process.
Simple option would be to force through a soft Brexit "in the name of the union" – the headbangers will wail, Ukip with grow mildly less electorally toxic for a while, but life, and the union will go on. The alternative for May? Lose Scotland and Europe and pray that Labour doesn't come to its senses in the next two years.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
They could walk away but they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit and who will want to lend to them?
Plenty of people - it's the rates that are the question. "they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
Punitive rates in other words.
Hardly, *IF* they are starting with zero debt. Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
If Scotland decides to walk away from UK debt, then we would have to enforce the Hardest Joxit possible, the politics would be utterly venomous. There would be tariffs on everything coming south of the border, visa requirements for Scots, immediate removal of all UK assets in Scotland, it would be close to a bloody cold war. England would possibly go into recession, Scotland would probably go into Depression.
The groat, allegedly pegged to the £, would be worth 30p, with no lender of last resort.
How are you going to calculate Scotland's share of the debt? How are you going to apportion assets and liabilities to her?
Fuck knows. I'm not the one calling for Joxit.
But it will have to be done. Years of haggling. And just as many europhiles like you point out (with some justification) that the EU holds most of the cards in Brexit, as being the bigger partner, rUK will hold most of the cards in Joxit, as being the bigger player (especially now the oil has gone). rUK could force a very hard deal indeed.
There will be no EU to protect either side, or interfere with the process.
Simple option would be to force through a soft Brexit "in the name of the union" – the headbangers will wail, Ukip with grow mildly less electorally toxic for a while, but life, and the union will go on. The alternative for May? Lose Scotland and Europe and pray that Labour doesn't come to its senses in the next two years.
1) you can have a referendum in autumn 2021 if there is a pro-independence majority elected in May of that year
2) you can have a referendum in late 2019, but only if the Scottish Parliament is dissolved earlier that year and a pro-independence majority is returned.
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient mome post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
Do you seriously think TMay will allow an indyref before Brexit is concluded. She can't. Of course she can't. Sturgeon knows this.
So it will be 2019 at the earliest. It will have to be late 2019 as they will need six months after calling it, to have the campaign.
That is the most likely date for this vote. 2019. But if it isn't 2019, it will be because TMay has gone hardcore and demanded a new Holyrood election first.
"DOWNING STREET and the Scottish Tories think they might have hit upon a way to frustrate Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a second Scottish independence referendum.
They won’t refuse outright any Sturgeon demand for a new poll. But they will instead insist that it waits until after Brexit and, crucially, after it is clear what relationship with the EU an independent Scotland could have.
They calculate that this would mean that the referendum could not take place until 2021. The result of this: Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalists and their Green allies would have to win another majority in the Scottish parliamentary elections to hold a referendum."
Given election fatigue following the 2021 Holyrood elections that makes it 2022 at the earliest. Precisely because this issue is not going to go away I'd set a date in 2024 in stone regardless of the results in 2021. 10 years will allow the wounds of the last campaign to heal somewhat and a good 5 years for the Scottish people to scrutinise our post EU world and make a better informed decision. It might even encourage some better governance by the SNP in the interim.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that though. Saying that £60bn is ludicrous and we're also entitled to a share of assets is quite reasonable.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scotland's share of the debt is 8%, it really wouldn't make much difference if UK debt increased by that amount.
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that though. Saying that £60bn is ludicrous and we're also entitled to a share of assets is quite reasonable.
Matter of opinion. Scotland will argue £150bn is ludicrous.....
There's no particular reason to hold a referendum just because it's a politically convenient mome post Brexit UK is taking would have a real opportunity to change things.
Clearly TMay will have to delay indyref2 until after Brexit is concluded (around March 2019). The question is how long CAN she delay, how long will she WANT to delay it, from then on?
The more she delays, the more she stokes grievance. But it will be superstoked anyway.
She could go for broke (as is being reported) and delay it until after Holyrood elex in 2021, demanding the SNP get a majority and a mandate.
That's hardball politics, and is seriously risky for the Union, but then the Union is seriously at risk, anyhow. TMay can argue that at a time of great instability for the entire nation of the UK, she is deciding for ALL Britons.
Who knows.
Anyhoo, in this light, I reckon indyref will happen either in late 2019, early 2020, or in 2021-22. Bet accordingly.
LOL. It is this insight that PB is famous for – the inside track for bettors in the know.
Do you seriously think TMay will allow an indyref before Brexit is concluded. She can't. Of course she can't. Sturgeon knows this.
Sturgeon's gamble depends heavily on how public opinion in Scotland reacts in the coming weeks. If you start to see polls with support above 50% and a feeling of inevitability then it will be hard for May to resist. On the other hand if support falls back, or stays stuck, then May can possibly afford to wait it out and hope the SNP run aground over some other issue.
I do not think the polls come into this. TM will not grant the referendum on Nicola's terms but will agree the principal but not before the EU agreement has been concluded. And that will be late 2019 - early 2020 when TM will be planning her re-election. It is Nicola who is desperate for her timetable as she does have a narrow timeline
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. r main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that though. Saying that £60bn is ludicrous and we're also entitled to a share of assets is quite reasonable.
If the SNP's answer to the currency question is to give up GBP, would they not also be able to walk away from the national debt in the same way that Russia took on the debts of the Soviet Union?
And ultimately, could Brexit bankrupt the British state?
No. Scthinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that the UK should cough up £60bn to leave the EU, and that Scotland should be able to leave the UK without taking on its share of liabilities.
No doubt there will be a big crossover between those arguing that Scotland should cough up £150 billion to leave the UK, and that the UK should be able to leave the EU without taking on its share of liabilities.
I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that though. Saying that £60bn is ludicrous and we're also entitled to a share of assets is quite reasonable.
Matter of opinion. Scotland will argue £150bn is ludicrous.....
75% of Scots exports go to England, about 0.000003% of English exports go to Scotland. We will both be outside the EU. England will be able to threaten tariffs on Scotland, basically ruining her.
All the arguments about Brexit (which you make) can be made about Joxit, only times ten.
I'm not willing to stop drinking Aberlour. Are you?
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so this may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
The Left will probably blame her for wearing a short skirt.
Daily Mail are so quick to call it racist if they can paint it as white victims. I'm sceptical, I would like to know what happened before hand Daily Mail like the guardian have an agenda.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so this may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
It really is astounding how unionists feel making crass threats and becoming the worst of all possible neighbours is a clever strategy vis a vis an independent Scotland. This thread is one step away from gunboats on the Tweed. Next up – orders of shoot to kill for with extreme prejudice for roaming border guards in Kielder Forest, picking off cheeky jocks who try to tunnel under a 20ft dark future version of Hadrian's Wall, carrying a backpack full of Laphroaig.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
Scots will be out of the EU Single Market, and out of the UK Single Market. A very very weak position.
The SNP party line (don't laugh too hard) is that the "UK single market" doesn't exist. It is a work of fiction, and therefore "not an obstacle" to separation.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
It's up to Scotland's unionists to sort this out.
They need to co-operate, collaborate and put the SNP back in it's box.
May should effectively give them the 2020 and 2021 elections to achieve this. If they cannot then how long must the rest of the UK put up with them?
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
Presumably they can buy and use Euros, but it won't be backed by the central bank and they won't be able to borrow using it.
I wonder what the effect of the Unionists saying "You know inside whether you'd rather be British or not, we'll leave the propaganda to the SNP" and not running a big campaign would be
Something to consider amidst the politics is the people.
In the event of separation the English, Welsh and Northern Irish might be rather well disposed towards the Scottish, and vice versa. Or not. A lot depends on the perceived fairness of any negotiation, the conduct of the leaders, and the behaviour of noisy fringe imbeciles.
It remains utterly irrational to argue that leaving the EU single market is grounds to leave the UK single market, when the latter (for Scotland) is four to five times larger. It's like screaming after losing your little finger to a woodchipper, then thrusting in your whole hand.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
So be it. The SNP cannot yank the leash forever, without expecting the sleeping dog to turn and bite eventually. It's what they say they want, but the bite may be much nastier than they expected, indeed the real threat of it may give them pause.
Judging by the Leavers, the real threat of a nasty bite will simply vindicate in their eyes the decision to leave an abusive union.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
It's a valid point that the rUK will be a much more visible presence looming over a second referendum campaign, whereas apart from the last minute panic the first one was almost entirely a Scottish affair.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Not to use it as a non member though. Like Kosovo and Montenegro.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
They can 'dollarize' - use any freely traded currency they want to. The problem is it would be very difficult for them to borrow dollars - or euros - or pounds, to finance their deficit, let alone simple things like 'imports'. Oh, and their finance business would decamp en-masse to London and Dublin. Before the 2014 referendum one Glasgow economist published a paper estimating they'd need around £40billion in reserves just to get started.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
So be it. The SNP cannot yank the leash forever, without expecting the sleeping dog to turn and bite eventually. It's what they say they want, but the bite may be much nastier than they expected, indeed the real threat of it may give them pause.
They haven't yanked the leash, though have they? They have been a massive contributor to the union, in spirit, intellect and expertise. Their culture is loved, worldwide. They invented everything, near enough. Their land is impossibly beautiful – the perfect place for a dirty weekend rolling around in bed as the legendary rain lashes down outside, and a dram awaits by the open fire.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so this may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
(edited for spelling)
Do they ultimately want the Euro?
Goes with EU membership for new entrants, so I understood. The UK will be out of the EU by the time Scotland leaves the UK.
Re-joining would mean the (r-)UK adopting the Euro too.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
So be it. The SNP cannot yank the leash forever, without expecting the sleeping dog to turn and bite eventually. It's what they say they want, but the bite may be much nastier than they expected, indeed the real threat of it may give them pause.
Judging by the Leavers, the real threat of a nasty bite will simply vindicate in their eyes the decision to leave an abusive union.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
It's a valid point that the rUK will be a much more visible presence looming over a second referendum campaign, whereas apart from the last minute panic the first one was almost entirely a Scottish affair.
I thought there was a big hoo-h about a currency union during the campaign?
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
They can 'dollarize' - use any freely traded currency they want to. The problem is it would be very difficult for them to borrow dollars - or euros - or pounds, to finance their deficit, let alone simple things like 'imports'.
As rcs1000 has said frequently, it's not unusual for small countries to issue debt wholly or partially in currencies they don't control.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
So be it. The SNP cannot yank the leash forever, without expecting the sleeping dog to turn and bite eventually. It's what they say they want, but the bite may be much nastier than they expected, indeed the real threat of it may give them pause.
They haven't yanked the leash, though have they? They have been a massive contributor to the union, in spirit, intellect and expertise. Their culture is loved, worldwide. They invented everything, near enough. Their land is impossibly beautiful – the perfect place for a dirty weekend rolling around in bed as the legendary rain lashes down outside, and a dram awaits by the open fire.
Massive contributor in everything but money, apparently
Matter of opinion. Scotland will argue £150bn is ludicrous.....
The SNP can say what it likes, but it will certainly be in that ballpark.
Decrees Glw. No doubt the Scots will beg to differ.
The Scots may beg to differ but the financial power is on the side of the English.
Scots will be out of the EU Single Market, and out of the UK Single Market. A very very weak position.
So being out of the EU Single Market is a weak position? This is what we have been trying to tell the eurosceptics since before they decided to wreck the bloody country.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so tis may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
They'll need to meet the 3% deficit target in order to become a Euro member.
Perhaps what I mean is: why can only 'members' make use of that currency, whereas ordinary currencies like the £ and the $ can be used by any old country?
Non EU members use the euro. e.g. Montenegro, etc
It has huge problems, of course. You are at the mercy of another central bank, and yet with no say.
That would be the case with sterling, so six & half a dozen.
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?
Wut?
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though. Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
Very late to the thread, so this may have been discussed already:
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
(edited for spelling)
Do they ultimately want the Euro?
Goes with EU membership for new entrants, so I understood. The UK will be out of the EU by the time Scotland leaves the UK.
Re-joining would mean the (r-)UK adopting the Euro too.
Tell that to Sweden. Scotland would be in the same legal position as them.
My instinct is that the Scots will be sticking with the pound up until the time they join the Euro formally. All the tills, people's bank accounts (@DavidL for instance), business bank accounts are in sterling at the moment. That can't be shifted overnight.
It really is astounding how unionists feel making crass threats and becoming the worst of all possible neighbours is a clever strategy vis a vis an independent Scotland. This thread is one step away from gunboats on the Tweed. Next up – orders of shoot to kill for with extreme prejudice for roaming border guards in Kielder Forest, picking off cheeky jocks who try to tunnel under a 20ft dark future version of Hadrian's Wall, carrying a backpack full of Laphroaig.
You are an utter wimp. It's the Scots who insist on electing the loathsome Nats, they deserve everything that they've got coming.
Judging by this thread, Scotland is leaving the union. English nationalism will drive it away. Working on the basis of what suits England at the expense of Scottish interests will make the SNP's point for it.
It's up to Scotland's unionists to sort this out.
They need to co-operate, collaborate and put the SNP back in it's box.
May should effectively give them the 2020 and 2021 elections to achieve this. If they cannot then how long must the rest of the UK put up with them?
The SNP stood on a manifesto in 2016 with the following passage:
"We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will."
In the event, Nicola Sturgeon has only called for it after it became apparent that there would be hard Brexit. Why, when the SNP has a majority for its position in the Scottish Parliament, should it be required to prove itself again at the ballot box just because it is inconvenient for an unelected Prime Minister in Westminster with no personal mandate?
Matter of opinion. Scotland will argue £150bn is ludicrous.....
The SNP can say what it likes, but it will certainly be in that ballpark.
Decrees Glw. No doubt the Scots will beg to differ.
The Scots may beg to differ but the financial power is on the side of the English.
Scots will be out of the EU Single Market, and out of the UK Single Market. A very very weak position.
So being out of the EU Single Market is a weak position? This is what we have been trying to tell the eurosceptics since before they decided to wreck the bloody country.
Being outside of the EU and out of the UK is what he said.
Tell that to Sweden. Scotland would be in the same legal position as them.
Not really, Sweden has its OWN currency. Scotland would be using England's (For a bit), and Sweden joined in 1995. It is now 2017. I think if Scotland votes for independence, it will join the Euro before Sweden.
My instinct is that the Scots will be sticking with the pound up until the time they join the Euro formally. All the tills, people's bank accounts (@DavidL for instance), business bank accounts are in sterling at the moment. That can't be shifted overnight.
They can say the Scottish pound is an indy currency, and peg it to Sterling. As they already have the banknotes, little would change on the ground. The only difference is Scots pounds would not be admissible in England – although few places accept them down here anyway.
Comments
That said it is probably not a good way to go about becoming an independent nation, particularly if your main trading partner thinks you owe them £150 billion. Good luck with selling us your goods.
"they'll almost certainly be running a fiscal deficit" - not much point borrowing otherwise.
'Trident is removed from Scotland, what next?
41. As a result, Professor Walker thought it might take twenty years or longer:
Yes, but 20 years might be a minimum; it might be longer than that. You would have to sustain your political will and funding for a very long time. I don't know whether the political parties could agree upon that and exactly what the ramifications would be. The process of finding a site might take five to 10 years, and then being sure you have one, and all the engineering and construction works, mean it could be a long time.[76]
42. Dr O'Brien thought it might be completed in fewer than twenty years, possibly 10 or 15, but only with an enormous amount of resources, no objections and cross-party support, and even then he thought it unlikely.'
http://tinyurl.com/hs49dqe
'Treasury promises to honour UK debts up to date of Scottish independence'
http://tinyurl.com/j5lpx8y
Just as with Brexit, there is a wide range of possible outcomes.
They have a deficit running at £15bn a year.
At the present annual rate they'd run up 300 years worth of 'UK Scottish' debt in under a decade.
"THE HAGUE - A day before the elections, VVD leader according to pollster I & O significantly distanced from the PVV. The VVD is rising in the last survey to 27 seats, the PVV drops to sixteen and up to four parties must allow for it.
GroenLinks and D66 getting the voters surveyed every twenty seats by I & O. The CDA, which comes with nineteen seats, still within the margin of error and thus shares with these two parties in second place.
I & O suspects that the VVD benefits from the diplomatic row between the Netherlands and Turkey. Participants in the survey who have followed this issue closely, supporting the action of the Rutte in droves and choose more often for the VVD average. Many of them call their appreciation for the actions of the government as the reason for that choice."
The debate in the Scottish Parliament next week and the following week will be as rancorous as anything seen in the HOC with the conservatives, labour and the lib dems tearing into the SNP and Greens. Furthermore this divisive situation will find it's way into the May elections and beyond.
If anyone thinks the A50 notice is causing anger this will now be replicated in Scotland but likely to destabilise the Scots economy for years to come. Notice the SNP have been phoning businesses since the annoucement and are getting a poor response
So the UK is struggling with Brexit but thanks to Nicola Scotland will be in much the same position
We really do need everyone to calm down and reflect for all our piece of minds
BUY turnips!
If there is a dark horse, it might just be the CDA..
Should it happen, then we will negotiate - and it will be neither as favourable as Malcolm might claim, nor as calamitous as Carlotta...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_continuity_of_the_Baltic_states
On 4 December 1991 the former republics of the Soviet Union signed the treaty on the division of the Soviet foreign debt. The Baltic states refused to sign. In 1993, the Russian Federation announced it would alone be responsible for the debt.
Fillon's a sod. If he'd buggered off then whether it were Juppe or Benoit who replaced him, I'd have been set fair. Still green, but by much less than I would have been.
Edited extra bit: still no points markets on the spreads, just the ranking markets (which I dislike).
Peil
Sturgeon's wibbled about precedent. Which means a two year campaign
There is no need for a referendum in advance of these things.
The apportionment of the UK national debt will be negotiated and agreed. The national debt could be apportioned by reference to the historic contribution made to the UK’s public finances by Scotland, or on the basis of our population share. We may choose to offset Scotland’s share of the value of UK assets against our inherited debt. On any realistic calculation Scotland’s inherited debt is projected to be a lower proportion of GDP than is the case for the UK as a whole
"any realistic calculation"......chortle......
1) you can have a referendum in autumn 2021 if there is a pro-independence majority elected in May of that year
2) you can have a referendum in late 2019, but only if the Scottish Parliament is dissolved earlier that year and a pro-independence majority is returned.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642
Decrees Glw. No doubt the Scots will beg to differ.
If they are able to carry on using the £ after independence without any discussion, why shouldn't they start using the Euro as soon as they gain independence? (Could use the dollar, or the peso, or any other currency, apparently.)
In either case they will be using someone else's currency, so why not just start using the one they ultimately want?
Good afternoon, everybody.
(edited for spelling)
Perhaps we can ask for all that back?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_substitution
Really, honestly, that is the line.
They need to co-operate, collaborate and put the SNP back in it's box.
May should effectively give them the 2020 and 2021 elections to achieve this. If they cannot then how long must the rest of the UK put up with them?
Presumably they can buy and use Euros, but it won't be backed by the central bank and they won't be able to borrow using it.
In the event of separation the English, Welsh and Northern Irish might be rather well disposed towards the Scottish, and vice versa. Or not. A lot depends on the perceived fairness of any negotiation, the conduct of the leaders, and the behaviour of noisy fringe imbeciles.
It remains utterly irrational to argue that leaving the EU single market is grounds to leave the UK single market, when the latter (for Scotland) is four to five times larger. It's like screaming after losing your little finger to a woodchipper, then thrusting in your whole hand.
Edited extra bit: good afternoon, Miss JGP.
Re-joining would mean the (r-)UK adopting the Euro too.
So being out of the EU Single Market is a weak position? This is what we have been trying to tell the eurosceptics since before they decided to wreck the bloody country.
Of course not. They want to be upfront driving the grievance bus...
"We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will."
In the event, Nicola Sturgeon has only called for it after it became apparent that there would be hard Brexit. Why, when the SNP has a majority for its position in the Scottish Parliament, should it be required to prove itself again at the ballot box just because it is inconvenient for an unelected Prime Minister in Westminster with no personal mandate?