politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sturgeon’s SIndy2 isn’t a gamble; it’s a necessity
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sturgeon’s SIndy2 isn’t a gamble; it’s a necessity
In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Comments
-
First.0
-
Not first. Like my Cheltenham picks...FrancisUrquhart said:First.
0 -
Is it Saturday already?0
-
4th, like Scotland in the UK0
-
Fish of the day? Seems apt with Nicola STURGEON.David_Herdson said:Carpe diem, and all that.
0 -
I agree with David Herdson for the reasons that he gave and also because even if the window of opportunity will remain open for some time courtesy of renewed mandates, there is no reason to believe that the referendum would be more winnable later.
In the words of Echo & The Bunnymen: nothing comes to those who wait.0 -
An interesting take. As someone who the nats beat mentally long ago, considering the HolyRood situation and future results is something I tend to overlook. I don't know that the window of opportunity would have closed if she had not made a move now, but now is certainly a good time to make a move from their perspective.
Maybe I'm cynical about things, but is the Greens' backing really not guaranteed? They want this too, and have little to worry about losing should it blow up in their faces.
Short-term pain is justified by long-term gain. To the extent that short-term pain needs to be minimised, it’s a matter of the tactics and politics necessary to gain the support that will launch independence but otherwise only a secondary consideration.
One thing that annoyed about Sindy and Brexit was the side advocating change refusing to acknowledge any short term pain, even though as you point out its not that it won't happen, but that it is justified.
But scottish threads get my bile up, so good day all.0 -
Angus Robertson: "...even at this late stage..." - echoes of Blair's ultimatum to Saddam Hussein.0
-
Harsh!PeterMannion said:4th, like Scotland in the UK
0 -
Its a gamble, but a neccesary one. Sometimes all the chips have to be shoved into the middle of the table. This is that time for the SNP.0
-
There is a secondary purpose behind the plans for a secondary Scottish referendum. It is to put the PM under pressure to obtain a "good" Brexit negotiated settlement, as there would be further implications for the U.K. This could include Irish reunification.0
-
... and Alec Salmond. What is it about the SNP and fish?TheScreamingEagles said:
Fish of the day? Seems apt with Nicola STURGEON.David_Herdson said:Carpe diem, and all that.
0 -
Good to see the Cameron maxim regarding tweets, also applies to First Ministers...0
-
'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.0 -
@ScottyNational: Sturgeon to May: 'At least I was elected', said the unopposed candidate who became First Minister without a public vote in 20140
-
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
Feel free to self censor on this subject, I don't think anyone will be missing much.Sandpit said:Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.0 -
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
That would work rather better if:Scott_P said:@ScottyNational: Sturgeon to May: 'At least I was elected', said the unopposed candidate who became First Minister without a public vote in 2014
1) Nicola Sturgeon had made her argument on the basis of having been elected in the first place; and
2) She had not subsequently been re-elected.
As it is, her point seems entirely reasonable - a much higher proportion of Scots voted for the SNP in 2016 than for the Conservatives in 2015 and no one (not even the Conservative party membership) has yet had the opportunity to vote for any programme put forward by Theresa May.0 -
The site is www.politicalbetting.com, not www.politicalboring.com.Sandpit said:Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.
Constitutional chaos is surely the better option for opportunities & advertising revenue here rather than say the very very boring 2001-2005 period.0 -
fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
0 -
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.0 -
What is the union for? I think we need a bugger conversation about this.0
-
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
Michael Stothard in the Financial Times: "Could Madam Le Pen deliver Frexit?"
He omits to consider Le Pen's promise to rule by plebiscite promises regarding referendums. She wants a referendum on changing the constitution, and she wants to enable a referendum whenever 500,000 people want one. Holding plebiscites is one of her most important policies. If implemented it will change the face of France. Say hello to the reign of the alt-droite.0 -
And as a result the Conservatives have a Parliamentary majority, while the SNP do not.AlastairMeeks said:As it is, her point seems entirely reasonable - a much higher proportion of Scots voted for the SNP in 2016 than for the Conservatives in 2015
Democracy in action...0 -
0
-
-
Some sensible points in this article but it is high stakes for the SNP, lose again, even if by the narrowest of margins and as Quebec shows they may not get the chance again. 26 years after its second referendum on independence from Canada there has not been another0
-
This is really good, and thus will be ignored by everybody
https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/8416161651221872660 -
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.0 -
Is there a link to that being a definite condition for EU membership? The wiki page seems rather vague on the economic criteria.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
How much rent could they charge rUK for Faslane and other military assets.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.0 -
My first political bet was on that by-election! Won me fifty quid.Danny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.0 -
Yeah, like 27 other countries and the EU high command are going to be silent as Trappists in the intervening period.Scott_P said:
I'm not sure what's more disturbing, the idea that our government is that stupid or the idea that they think we're that stupid.0 -
Ha. I didn't mean on here. Well not just on here anyway. The three years of "debate" leading up to the last referendum were downright nasty in Scotland and elsewhere, with friendships broken and families split. There was a reason everyone said it was once in a lifetime.Pulpstar said:
The site is www.politicalbetting.com, not www.politicalboring.com.Sandpit said:Oh God, have we really got several years of Scotland crap coming down the road again? Last time was unbearable and the nasty screaming that passed for debate split families in half.
Please please Theresa, tell the jumped up little twerp to get back in her box - and put some serious money into campaigning in the Scottish locals on health, education and policing.
Constitutional chaos is surely the better option for opportunities & advertising revenue here rather than say the very very boring 2001-2005 period.
Recent Scotland polling suggests there's really no appetite for going through all that again, so the PM should push it as far into the future as possible, preferably until after the 2021 Scottish elections. In the meantime, the opposition parties north of the border need to be relentless in ignoring constitutional questions and hold the Scottish government to account for what they're doing in their areas of power.0 -
I think Sindy Ref ought to be after 2 years after the triggering of Art 50. On this I do think the Tories have a point.
But if we're not out the EU by then, tough (For the Tories and the uncertainty narrative). Autumn 2019 looks a good time to me for Indy Ref II.0 -
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
0 -
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
That would be hilarious. The SNP's raison d'être is getting rid of the nukes from Faslane.logical_song said:
How much rent could they charge rUK for Faslane and other military assets.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.0 -
An excellent leader piece from @DavidHerdson – quite right.0
-
What would you like the outcome of Indy Ref II to be @Pulpstar ?Pulpstar said:I think Sindy Ref ought to be after 2 years after the triggering of Art 50. On this I do think the Tories have a point.
But if we're not out the EU by then, tough (For the Tories and the uncertainty narrative). Autumn 2019 looks a good time to me for Indy Ref II.0 -
Scotland is in a bit of a particular situation with the currency. I think the EU would fudge on that particular issue (So long as they were comitted to Euro membership) as the situation is literally impossible for Scotland to fully fulfil immediately post UK breakup.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary
policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank.
But what they won't yield on is the 3% deficit issue, or at least a commitment and actions to Scotland getting its house in order on that front. They are welcoming bunch in general the EU, but they just want to avoid another Greece and not put more stress on the ECB as neccesary.0 -
Just in time for another clean sweep at the 2020 election, even if they lose the referendum itself.Pulpstar said:I think Sindy Ref ought to be after 2 years after the triggering of Art 50. On this I do think the Tories have a point.
But if we're not out the EU by then, tough (For the Tories and the uncertainty narrative). Autumn 2019 looks a good time to me for Indy Ref II.0 -
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
I hope the pro-union campaign is a more positive one this time. Project Fear won't work again.0
-
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.0 -
You can't imagine Maggie not contesting Richmond Park.MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
Mrs May is frit, this does not bode well for our Brexit deal.0 -
I think the Scots should vote for independence, but Sturgeon must do better than last time on matters of currency and provide a clear pathway for EU membership.Bojabob said:
What would you like the outcome of Indy Ref II to be @Pulpstar ?Pulpstar said:I think Sindy Ref ought to be after 2 years after the triggering of Art 50. On this I do think the Tories have a point.
But if we're not out the EU by then, tough (For the Tories and the uncertainty narrative). Autumn 2019 looks a good time to me for Indy Ref II.
And public opinion would shift substantially in favour of independence if it became a fact on the ground whereas the current situation is just going to leave the nation divided forever.
So on balance I am for independence, though it is for the Scots to decide - not me.0 -
A what??????nunu said:What is the union for? I think we need a bugger conversation about this.
And we’re really missing MalcG’s carefully thought out contributions.0 -
In the same way that Sweden is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro? It is a new member obliged to join too.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.0 -
As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.0
-
Mon: Indy is the SNP's raison d'êtretlg86 said:
That would be hilarious. The SNP's raison d'être is getting rid of the nukes from Faslane.logical_song said:
How much rent could they charge rUK for Faslane and other military assets.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Tues: Getting rid of nukes is the SNP's raison d'être
Weds: Anti English racism is the SNP's raison d'être
Thurs: Stoking up grievance is the SNP's raison d'être
etc
What a lot of raisons.0 -
'Harp on about' a result last equalled in 1878.......MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
Agree on all counts.Pulpstar said:
I think the Scots should vote for independence, but Sturgeon must do better than last time on matters of currency and provide a clear pathway for EU membership.Bojabob said:
What would you like the outcome of Indy Ref II to be @Pulpstar ?Pulpstar said:I think Sindy Ref ought to be after 2 years after the triggering of Art 50. On this I do think the Tories have a point.
But if we're not out the EU by then, tough (For the Tories and the uncertainty narrative). Autumn 2019 looks a good time to me for Indy Ref II.
And public opinion would shift substantially in favour of independence if it became a fact on the ground whereas the current situation is just going to leave the nation divided forever.
So on balance I am for independence, though it is for the Scots to decide - not me.0 -
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
The only answer is for them to move to a McPoond, then to the Euro.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
But who's going to lend money against the McPoond to finance the public spending deficit, and what happens when almost the entire Scottish financial services sector moves to London or Dublin?0 -
Re oil price forecasts...
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."0 -
Okay, let me put it this way. Getting rid of the nukes is a big part of their argument for why they think Scotland should go independent. It's possibly more important than "we didn't vote for this Tory government."Theuniondivvie said:
Monday: Indy is the SNP's raison d'êtretlg86 said:
That would be hilarious. The SNP's raison d'être is getting rid of the nukes from Faslane.logical_song said:
How much rent could they charge rUK for Faslane and other military assets.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Tuesday: Getting rid of nukes is the SNP's raison d'être
Weds: anti English racism is the SNP's raison d'être
Thurs: stoking up grievance is the SNP's raison d'être
etc
What a lot of raisons.0 -
A week ago, May was "the most powerful Prime Minister since Thatcher".
Now she can't get the major plank of her Budget passed, and part of her country is closer to secession than ever before.0 -
The SNP make raisons from gripes, and gripes can be fermented into whines.Theuniondivvie said:
Mon: Indy is the SNP's raison d'êtretlg86 said:
That would be hilarious. The SNP's raison d'être is getting rid of the nukes from Faslane.logical_song said:
How much rent could they charge rUK for Faslane and other military assets.Pulpstar said:
Scotland is going to be without a lender of last resort whilst it is temporarily outside both the EU and the UK. As a new member entrant to the EU, the Euro will be required - that is minor compared to getting the deficit to 3% in my eyes though.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.
Anyway I'm giving the Nats the benefit of the doubt regarding the currency but the EU can not, it will not change the deficit rules for a new country. At the very least they will want to see tax rises and/or spending cuts.
My question is, where are these coming from.
If the SNP win the referendum, and Scotland applies for EU membership suddenly everyone will be asking the same question. I'm just getting about 3 years ahead of the curve here.
Tues: Getting rid of nukes is the SNP's raison d'être
Weds: Anti English racism is the SNP's raison d'être
Thurs: Stoking up grievance is the SNP's raison d'être
etc
What a lot of raisons.0 -
https://twitter.com/flashgrim/status/841642905815130113rcs1000 said:Re oil price forecasts...
0 -
People confuse the Copenhagen criteria with the Euro convergence criteria. Scotland would trivially meet the former, while struggling with the latter. How to handle the interregnum between leaving the UK and joining the Euro, that's the exam question imo.Philip_Thompson said:
Why would the EU require it for membership of the EU? As opposed to eventual Euro membership.Pulpstar said:
How will Scotland meet the 3% deficit target that sure as eggs is eggs the EU will require for membership.Theuniondivvie said:
Wut?Pulpstar said:
Yes yes but what about my 3% question ?Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
Thanks to Stjohn for his EW tip for the Champion.Scott_P said:
Not first. Like my Cheltenham picks...FrancisUrquhart said:First.
0 -
Yep, the OPEC countries are shitting themselves - they're no longer the monopoly they once were, and they're no longer in control of worldwide supply and price.rcs1000 said:Re oil price forecasts...
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."
GCC countries are pushing ahead with plan to introduce VAT next year.0 -
Time to bring this back - note the exchange rate...rcs1000 said:
Presumably they'd do what Ireland did with the Punt, and have it start at 1:1 with Sterling (Scotland has all that existing paper money that makes it easy). All debts, bank accounts, etc., would be redenominated 1:1 into Scottish Pounds (or Groats). At some point in the future, they would enter the ERM with the Groat pegged at 1:1.15 to the Euro or somesuch.Cyan said:
The euro convergence criteria include that they should treat their exchange rate policy "as a matter of common interest". If they keep the pound while they're waiting to join the euro, how can they actually have an exchange rate policy, given that they'll be using some other country's currency?Pulpstar said:Scotland is DEFINITELY heading into the Euro if it becomes independent, the Nats just need to be honest about this one.
They would also have "to pursue price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy", which is a bit difficult if you haven't got a central bank and don't issue any currency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_Scots
0 -
One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.0
-
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
What happened in Ireland was a vicious civil war.Bojabob said:One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
0 -
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Scexit sounds like a bad skin condition.TheScreamingEagles said:
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
She sacked Hezza and her whips seem much more effect than the Poshos'.TheScreamingEagles said:
You can't imagine Maggie not contesting Richmond Park.MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
Mrs May is frit, this does not bode well for our Brexit deal.
She's going to face down Sturgeon too, by the sounds of it.
Balls to frit.0 -
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
0 -
I have taken it too. I wondered into Ladbrokes on my lunch break and wasn't paying attention so got a bloody awful price (22). I hope it is good karma and he comes in for us @Mortimer !Mortimer said:
Thanks to Stjohn for his EW tip for the Champion.Scott_P said:
Not first. Like my Cheltenham picks...FrancisUrquhart said:First.
0 -
I would point out that I wrote an excellent piece, called Gushing, Oklahoma a few years back (and which was republished by Platt's) predicting almost exactly what has happened.Sandpit said:
Yep, the OPEC countries are shitting themselves - they're no longer the monopoly they once were, and they're no longer in control of worldwide supply and price.rcs1000 said:Re oil price forecasts...
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."
GCC countries are pushing ahead with plan to introduce VAT next year.0 -
That's why I'm banning ScexitDanny565 said:
Scexit sounds like a bad skin condition.TheScreamingEagles said:
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
I thought you didn't believe in that sort of thing? What is it you usually say? "Economic expansions don't die of old age."rcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
Because they're uselessMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election. 0 -
In our case our expansion is likely to end because our savings rate will have to rise to close our current account deficit.tlg86 said:
I thought you didn't believe in that sort of thing? What is it you usually say? "Economic expansions don't die of old age."rcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
Because Ukip are utterly shite at winning parliamentary elections?MikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
The problem is not going to be Trappist silence, but the exact opposite. During the entire negotiation period there will be a plethora of contradictory statements, opinions, kite-flying attempts, ignorant nonsense, negotiating positions, and messages aimed at domestic audiences, all written up in lurid terms by journalists trying to big-up a story or push some political objective. Trying to figure out what is really going on amongst all that noise is going to be impossible.AlastairMeeks said:
Yeah, like 27 other countries and the EU high command are going to be silent as Trappists in the intervening period.Scott_P said:
I'm not sure what's more disturbing, the idea that our government is that stupid or the idea that they think we're that stupid.0 -
Scot Free, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
But His Excellency Professor Sir Paul Nuttall GCMG, DSO, MC, VC is a brilliant leader and candidate.Pulpstar said:
Because they're uselessMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
Which is still being fought, although nowadays electorally.Carolus_Rex said:
What happened in Ireland was a vicious civil war.Bojabob said:One of the very best arguments I have heard for Scottish independence is that advanced by @Pulpstar: that to resist independence again will just leave Scotland forever divided. If, on the other hand, it votes for independence, public opinion will doubtless shift firmly and swiftly towards it maintaining its independence. I suspect (but don't know) that is what happened in Ireland.
0 -
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Cos their candidate was Nutt all he was cracked up to be?MikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.
0 -
I like that.AlastairMeeks said:
Scot Free, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
As editor of PB's style guide, it is Joxit and NOT Scexit.HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
0 -
But Huffy D thinks they'll sweep to victory if May doesn't ask for a job offer requirement for EU citizens...Pulpstar said:
Because they're uselessMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
Fair point. I hadn't seen that. The Greens' previous position was that they'd only support a second vote if there was a demonstrable demand for one, which is at best still only an arguable case.Theuniondivvie said:'It isn’t even certain now that Sturgeon will be able to call a referendum: the SNP doesn’t have a majority in Holyrood and while the Greens might well support IndyRef2, or at least abstain (which would be good enough for the SNP), their compliance can’t be taken for granted.'
https://twitter.com/scotgp/status/841266977243029505
I would be HUGELY surprised if there hadn't been consultations with Patrick Harvie beforehand.0 -
As the Tories have stolen most of their clothes and the Tory voteshare rose in StokeMikeSmithson said:
On that logic why did UKIP flop in Stoke Central?HYUFD said:
Over 400 seats voted Leave like Copeland, only around 200 voted Remain like Richmond Park, in pure terms of parliamentary arithmetic if I was May I know which I would rather be winning! (Plus of course the Tories held Remain voting Witney last year anyway)MikeSmithson said:
And while Tories harp on about Copeland they ignore losing Richmond Park where for internal reasons they failed to put up candidate to defend 23k majority.logical_song said:
Piddling small change.HYUFD said:
A Speaker who was originally elected on a Labour ticketDanny565 said:fpt:
Technically yes: he gained Glasgow North East from Speaker in 2009HYUFD said:
Did Brown ever gain a seat in a parliamentary by election?logical_song said:
Agreed, as much legitimacy as Gordon Brown.Richard_Tyndall said:
May has as much legitimacy as any other PM in British history. She commands a majority in the HoC and that is all any PM ever has as a mandate.logical_song said:
No, they elect an MP.HYUFD said:
The voters of Maidenhead and Copeland may beg to differScott_P said:Handbags...
@NicolaSturgeon: In addition, I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto commitment re #scotref. The PM is not yet elected by anyone.
Both Gordon Brown and Theresa May have (so far) never won a General Election.0 -
That I have more sympathy with.Richard_Nabavi said:
The problem is not going to be Trappist silence, but the exact opposite. During the entire negotiation period there will be a plethora of contradictory statements, opinions, kite-flying attempts, ignorant nonsense, negotiating positions, and messages aimed at domestic audiences, all written up in lurid terms by journalists trying to big-up a story or push some political objective. Trying to figure out what is really going on amongst all that noise is going to be impossible.AlastairMeeks said:
Yeah, like 27 other countries and the EU high command are going to be silent as Trappists in the intervening period.Scott_P said:
I'm not sure what's more disturbing, the idea that our government is that stupid or the idea that they think we're that stupid.
Why, only this week I've heard that Article 50 was definitely going to be triggered yesterday or today, it was 50/50 that it would be triggered yesterday or today, that it was never going to be triggered yesterday or today and that it is definitely going to be triggered at the end of the month and not before.
And that's just from British government sources.0 -
Because Scotland is relatively poor, its net contribution will likely be very modest I would have thought.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
Is it online anywhere? I'm usually good with Google but can't find it.rcs1000 said:
I would point out that I wrote an excellent piece, called Gushing, Oklahoma a few years back (and which was republished by Platt's) predicting almost exactly what has happened.Sandpit said:
Yep, the OPEC countries are shitting themselves - they're no longer the monopoly they once were, and they're no longer in control of worldwide supply and price.rcs1000 said:Re oil price forecasts...
"Opec has raised its 2017 estimates for oil production from outside of the cartel as US shale drillers ramp up activity in response to higher prices, underlining the threat to the group’s attempts to balance the market.
Non-Opec oil supply is now projected to grow by around 400,000 barrels a day this year to average 57.7m b/d, Opec said in said in its monthly market report. That marks a 300,000 b/d increase on its total forecast just one month ago and comes after a near 10 per cent drop in prices last week, as traders fret over shale’s potential to overwhelm the cartel’s own supply cuts."
GCC countries are pushing ahead with plan to introduce VAT next year.0 -
Though it will take up more of the declining oil revenues they will have to survive onrcs1000 said:
Because Scotland is relatively poor, its net contribution will likely be very modest I would have thought.HYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.0 -
That's not the SNP line......rcs1000 said:
Because Scotland is relatively poorHYUFD said:
The SNP will also have to argue for returning to unlimited migration from Eastern Europe and keeping the same contributions to the EU toorcs1000 said:
Sure. But the narrative that the SNP will be able to play will be "this was caused by Brexit, if we just quit the union and rejoin the EU all will be fine."HYUFD said:
Which will be magnified many terms for Scots by Scexitrcs1000 said:As an aside, the advantage the Scots have this time around is that the UK is due a recession, and that recession - irrespective of its ultimate causes - will likely be blamed on Brexit.
The fact that the recession will actually be the result of (a) the cyclical nature of economies generally, and (b) the UK's particular vulnerability given its quadruple deficits, is by-the-by.
People, as Donald Trump has just proven, love simple narratives.
Last time it was looked at:
It is difficult to estimate Scottish contributions to the EU budget, but let us see how much it will contribute based on the assumptions made by the pro-independence campaign. Assume that Scotland will keep the rebate (which is unlikely), and that it will contribute the same amount as it did when it was part of the UK (although this is also unlikely). Scotland is expected to pay the EU £3.3bn over seven years from 2014-2020 if it remains in the UK. That’s around £160m per year after the rebate, which, using the 2011 figures, places Scotland 25th in terms of contributions, behind comparatively undeveloped new entrants, such as Romania and Bulgaria (the latter has population comparable to that of Scotland). Thus, if the pro-independence campaigners do not budge, Scotland’s contributions would not be tempting for the EU.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/scotland-and-the-eu-terms-and-conditions/
0
