politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take plac
Comments
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Just a shame they threw away so much of their easily accessible lithium sources to make cups and plates.SandyRentool said:
Cornwall needs to achieve independence before the lithium mining starts or else England will grab all of the wealth.Blue_rog said:0 -
Zero chance.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8413097434026311680 -
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I'm tempted to do a thread based on Beneath the Planet of the Apes, I'm just working out who will be Brent and if Mrs May is Charlton Heston's character who pushes the button?Monty said:
Ha! Great minds.TheScreamingEagles said:
Thief!Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8412703202207989770 -
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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English grief at the departure of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be much softened by the realisation that we'd all be a lot richer if the subsidies were to become entirely the EU's problem.0
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Yup. Labour is responsible for the election of Trump, in the US. As they were responsible for the demise of Lehman Brothers.GIN1138 said:
It all follows from the crash. Trump as well.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
We should think ourselves lucky though because so far we haven't seen anything as disastrous as the last time there was a crash of this magnitude (1930's followed by WWII)0 -
So who is right, her or Newton Dunn?Scott_P said:0 -
No. Germany and France etc wouldn't play along unless independence was agreed with the UK government.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8413097434026311680 -
Independence for Havering from London next please0
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Or upsetting The Netherlanders.Scott_P said:0 -
On the Salmond coup - from the zoomers favourite columnist:
The 21st century is shaping up to be the era of the angry, bitter man.
On television, on social media, in the corridors of power, you can’t move for stroppy, overgrown teenagers who have lurched from puberty to middle-aged dyspepsia with no intervening period of maturity.
Donald Trump wields all the power any man could want and still he broods on Twitter, bellowing at his critics like the neighbourhood kids who won’t get off his damn lawn. Nigel Farage is on Question Time more often than David Dimbleby and seethes tirelessly (and tiresomely) at the “establishment” — the one that put him through private school, employed him as a City stockbroker, and now dances to his mad Brexit tune.
But no one does grievance like Alex Salmond.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/02/25/salmonds-national-party/0 -
What has happened is a consequence of how those in government responded to the crash. There were choices. Certain ones were made.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
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You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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No, Labour is (partly) responsible for what's happening here. But as they are so fond of telling us it was global financial crisis so clearly they aren't responsible for what's happening in America (and may happen in Europe this year)surbiton said:
Yup. Labour is responsible for the election of Trump, in the US. As they were responsible for the demise of Lehman Brothers.GIN1138 said:
It all follows from the crash. Trump as well.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
We should think ourselves lucky though because so far we haven't seen anything as disastrous as the last time there was a crash of this magnitude (1930's followed by WWII)
But there's no doubt that all of the upheaval we've seen in recent years in a direct result of the global crash.0 -
Carlotta sounds worried.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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And even after those five years, Scotland would be in an EU where its second largest contributor had left. The EU teat will be running dry for all those yellow starred, blue-badged infrastructure projects you see dotted around the highlands and islands. Projects previously paid for with UK contributions.SeanT said:
You're too sanguine about Scotland's reaccession to the EU. It will happen (if they want it), but it won't be smooth and easy, and done in a jiffy, like the Nats claim
See here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39236117
"Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Centre: "I think Scotland would have to apply for EU membership.
"But that process I think would be managed - there would a question of transition periods, it might not be as fast as some people wish, but in the end if an independent country fulfils the conditions of EU membership, I find it hard to believe they would be blocked indefinitely.""
See also the stuff about Fisheries. Spain would veto Scotland unless they accepted the CFP again. Painful for Scotland.
Maybe it would take five years?
During those five years, Scotland, a country with a 10% deficit, no currency, and no central bank, would be outside the UK Single Market and outside the EU Single Market.
The EU Scotland thinks it will be joining will be long dead.0 -
Has anyone got a link to what Sion Simon said/wrote in September 2007 about Gordon Brown's brilliant polling?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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An amusing take on French election from a US perspective. There's a great typo near the end
http://thefederalist.com/2017/03/13/thought-u-s-elections-crazy-wait-til-get-look-frances/#.WMa9ajQBMKQ.twitter0 -
I don't want that either, but I am convinced that voting to leave the EU was the correct thing to do.SeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.
Also, some of us have lots of Scottish relatives in Scotland, and are genuinely concerned that iScotland would be an economic basket-case for a decade. The deficit is just huge. The currency, the bank, the rest of it. Nightmare.
The oil has gone. The economic argument for indy is now much worse than it was in 2014, and it was wobbly enough then. Scots would really suffer. And they are my relatives (and my fellow Brits).
I've no doubt that eventually Scotland would prosper, but they would endure pain, interim, which would make Brexit look like a mild headcold.
I really don't want that for them, and I don't want my country partitioned.
Voting to Remain simply for fear the Scots would hold another referendum & vote for independence would have been the wrong thing to do.
If a majority of Scots feel that they want to leave the UK, then that's their decision and they will need to accept any consequences just as the UK must accept the consequences of the Leave-EU decision.
Good afternoon, everyone.
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I remember when some people were saying may would never get A50 triggered by end of march...Now complaints it isn't tomorrow rather the end of march in line with the timetable.
And i say that as not much if a fan of may.0 -
She has no chanceTheScreamingEagles said:
That would be Leave voting Wales right?tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.0 -
Why stop there? Get rid of the North outside of the big cities and the West Country too. Just keep London, South East and the more prosperous bits of the Midlands.Richard_Nabavi said:English grief at the departure of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be much softened by the realisation that we'd all be a lot richer if the subsidies were to become entirely the EU's problem.
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As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.0
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How does it compare to May's?TheScreamingEagles said:
Has anyone got a link to what Sion Simon said/wrote in September 2007 about Gordon Brown's brilliant polling?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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At this rate England will have a budget surplus before the end of the evening.tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.
Corbyn could give us all a free owl.0 -
I am sure Nicola Sturgeon would not want to be the SNP leader who let a chance for independence slip through her grasp. Brexit made this all but certain.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Silly. Scott_P isn't a Brexiteer.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
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Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html
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Okay cool, enjoy your time in what's a f***ing big sandpit down there! I'm sure you're being well paid for it thoughSandyRentool said:
Neither. 'Normal' power.Sandpit said:
Have a good day today, and a safe trip here. You're in O&G, or working on the nuclear station?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr Pit! I'll be in your part of the world again in a few weeks time, but down towards the Saudi border again so no chance of a get-together unfortunately.Sandpit said:Oh, and Happy Birthday @SandyRentool
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God Save Your Queen does the trick at The Ashes.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html 0 -
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-1978
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Like a three year old with their favourite cuddly toy, it looks like Leavers are loving the United Kingdom to death.0
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Nah, 'Get your shit starts off our flag' does the trick during The Ashes.RobD said:
God Save Your Queen does the trick at The Ashes.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html0 -
Point of order, Wood is the leader of the 3rd ranked Party in Wales.chestnut said:
At this rate England will have a budget surplus before the end of the evening.tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.
Corbyn could give us all a free owl.0 -
The leads are double digit leads for both, the swing is similar.RobD said:
How does it compare to May's?TheScreamingEagles said:
Has anyone got a link to what Sion Simon said/wrote in September 2007 about Gordon Brown's brilliant polling?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
I shall do a thread on it this weekend.0 -
Seems Eck is the McFarage of the SNP - they may occasionally have someone pretend to be leader for a bit but he pulls all the strings.
Looks like he has forced her into a fatal mistake - and he will swoop in to pick up the pieces.
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We will see how this plays out but Nicola making this announcement from Bute House without discussing it in the Scottish Parliament will anger many.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
She is good at politics but someone who becomes over confident in their abilities can soon find that the rug has been taken from their feet
NATO has just announced that Scotland would be outside NATO on leaving the UK and will need to make an application to join.
Is Scotland ready to give 2% GDP to NATO0 -
Still pining for Blackrock - yours for £600,000 - George?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like Sion Simon in September 2007.CarlottaVance said:
Yes - just look at her polling......DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
Bless.....0 -
Indeed not. But ultimately she is a nationalist whose single aim is to see Scotland claim its rightful place in the pantheon of nations. Tactics only take you so far. At some point you have to head out to the summit even if you die in the attempt. Not taking the challenge is worse than failing.SeanT said:
Sturgeon does not want to be the SNP leader who lost the crucial 2nd referendum, killed off indy for 30 years, and probably split or even destroyed the SNP.FF43 said:
I am sure Nicola Sturgeon would not want to be the SNP leader who let a chance for independence slip through her grasp. Brexit made this all but certain.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hoping Theresa will refuse.
And on that repetitive bombshell, OFF TO WORK.0 -
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This would be a very good thing.surbiton said:
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. ?Richard_Nabavi said:FPT, but relevant to this thread:
I would extremely surprised if it doesn't. Joining the EEA and EFTA would require agreement from Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and from the EU27 (actually EU28 until the UK actually leaves!). There might be a mechanism whereby the EU could use QMV and force any dissenters amongst the EU27 to amend the EEA Treaty against their will, but that must surely be politically very unlikely even if were legally possible.surbiton said:Fine. Does that apply to the EEA as well ?
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. It's tiny, it's remote and its public finances as an independent state would be dire. Why would our EU friends go out of their way to give it special treatment? They've got bigger fish to fry.
It is psychologically and politically very important. It will show that part of a country that left wants to re-join. Spain will be told to lump it.
Although it won't feature on the radar of any other PBer the rapid and messy breakup of Spain is a very important goal for me.0 -
Number of cuddly toys killed by 3yo's annually ? 0.AlastairMeeks said:Like a three year old with their favourite cuddly toy, it looks like Leavers are loving the United Kingdom to death.
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Even by your standards of "not retweeting" that is beyond splitting hairs. the government said they would do something and they will do. Tomorrow or two weeks makes f##k all difference.Scott_P said:0 -
They could have always been intending to trigger at the end of march. What they said is another matter.Scott_P said:0 -
And that answer is precisely why Labour lost in 2015.Monty said:
None. You break it you own it.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.0 -
Legal advice ain't cheapCarlottaVance said:
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40 years ago doesn’t count. Ask any Leaver.SouthamObserver said:
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-19780 -
That's true but the greater truth, which is still not fully accepted, is that the country was living miles beyond its means. That was always going to mean that there would be losers from the fiscal consolidation, which itself would bring anger and blame. That's not to say that the source of all anger and blame in the current system is the result of the Crash and austerity - it isn't - but a lot does lead back there.SouthamObserver said:
What has happened is a consequence of how those in government responded to the crash. There were choices. Certain ones were made.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.0 -
I don't think anyone would argue that the EU hasn't fundamentally changed in the last forty years.OldKingCole said:
40 years ago doesn’t count. Ask any Leaver.SouthamObserver said:
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-19780 -
Aye, but the difference is Osborne was talking pish.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
Independent Scotland will be getting food parcels from Ethiopia....0 -
What is there even to discuss? This is an entirely foreseeable consequence of a) brexit b) how the aftermath was handled.
David cameron broke up the uk and that will be his legacy. The nats will reposess his families highland estates.
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Ruth Davidson:
“Nicola Sturgeon has today given up acting as First Minister for all of Scotland. People have said time and again they do not want to go back to the division of a second referendum. Nicola Sturgeon promised the 2014 referendum would be ‘once in a generation’. Today she has ignored the majority in Scotland who do not want a referendum and has decided instead to double down on division and uncertainty.
“The First Minister’s proposal offers Scotland the worst of all worlds. Her timetable would force people to vote blind on the biggest political decision a country could face. This is utterly irresponsible and has been taken by the First Minister purely for partisan political reasons.0 -
And yet it is the Conservative Party that have impoverished the country with Brexit and in all likelihood led to its break-up.david_herdson said:
That's true but the greater truth, which is still not fully accepted, is that the country was living miles beyond its means. That was always going to mean that there would be losers from the fiscal consolidation, which itself would bring anger and blame. That's not to say that the source of all anger and blame in the current system is the result of the Crash and austerity - it isn't - but a lot does lead back there.SouthamObserver said:
What has happened is a consequence of how those in government responded to the crash. There were choices. Certain ones were made.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
Well done.0 -
Only joking.valleyboy said:
Point of order, Wood is the leader of the 3rd ranked Party in Wales.chestnut said:
At this rate England will have a budget surplus before the end of the evening.tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.
Corbyn could give us all a free owl.
More seriously, I imagine that Wales and Northern England would probably benefit from UK distributions if Scotland departed.
Scotland still has 24% public sector employment and a fair amount of it serves London in particular. That type of thing can't go on.
The work needs relocating to a more reliable member of the UK.0 -
I find this it's blair or Cameron or may's fault rather bizarre. The Scottish people have overwhelmingly voted for a party whose primarily stated purpose is independence, not once but for many years now. Their dominance is such they not only have nearly all the MPs but they "defeated" an electoral system setup up to keep them from controlling the scottish parliament. That's the choice of the people and if they vote for indepedence again that is what they will have decided.0
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If the argument about Scotland remaining within the Union is purely about money, then the No campaign will almost certainly lose.
Ultimately, the UK holds together in the long-term through a common-sense of British identity, or not at all.0 -
Ooh, Noma level grub there from someone who was slobbering over Ozzie in 2014.MarqueeMark said:
Aye, but the difference is Osborne was talking pish.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
Independent Scotland will be getting food parcels from Ethiopia....
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Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.0 -
You've also got to wonder why BAe would invest in Clyde shipbuilding if the Scottish government want to cut it off from its biggest customer.....chestnut said:
Only joking.valleyboy said:
Point of order, Wood is the leader of the 3rd ranked Party in Wales.chestnut said:
At this rate England will have a budget surplus before the end of the evening.tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.
Corbyn could give us all a free owl.
More seriously, I imagine that Wales and Northern England would probably benefit from UK distributions if Scotland departed.
Scotland still has 24% public sector employment and a fair amount of it serves London in particular. That type of thing can't go on.
The work needs relocating to a more reliable member of the UK.0 -
If the relationship of Scotland to a supranational political union only 40 years old is deemed more important than its national political union with its neighbour to the south of over 300 years standing, then the Union was doomed anyway.RobD said:
I don't think anyone would argue that the EU hasn't fundamentally changed in the last forty years.OldKingCole said:
40 years ago doesn’t count. Ask any Leaver.SouthamObserver said:
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-19780 -
-
GSTQ is a bloody awful song. It is – by far – the worst of the British national anthems.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html
Jerusalem should be the English national anthem. A rousing hymn!0 -
Will that be listed on the currency markets as AIGT?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Oh Dear.Casino_Royale said:If the argument about Scotland remaining within the Union is purely about money, then the No campaign will almost certainly lose.
Ultimately, the UK holds together in the long-term through a common-sense of British identity, or not at all.0 -
And herein is the bind they are in. The Brexiting government more so. It is hard to see how the hypocrisy and contradiction can survive a two-year campaign.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
0 -
I think if you look back, you'll find I never "slobbered" over Ozzie. Never been a fan.Theuniondivvie said:
Ooh, Noma level grub there from someone who was slobbering over Ozzie in 2014.MarqueeMark said:
Aye, but the difference is Osborne was talking pish.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
Independent Scotland will be getting food parcels from Ethiopia....
And if Scotland wants independence, I won't stop it.Good luck. I'm not wedded to some eighteenth century political alignment. But the decision to go should be a measured, informed choice, not the headlong rush of the unthinking zealots. As the Purple One himself said, "For ever is a mighty long time...."0 -
Until Brexit completely changed the constitution of the UK. Another referendum in such circumstances was within the SNP manifesto – so they are simply keeping a (perfectly reasonable) manifesto pledge by calling for one...chestnut said:
They had the option. They voted to stay.Bojabob said:Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.0 -
Britain as a conceptual polity actually predates both England and Scotland.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html
The concept is that if you live on this damp foggy island, obstinately blocking the Atlantic from the North Sea, you have quite a lot in common with your fellow Britons climatically, geographically, culturally and even politically.
Any rational discourse would end up with a form of political association/union for the peoples of these islands, particularly in the 21st Century.
The question is: what form?0 -
In SindyRef1 the SNP White Paper pointed out 3 times that not voting for Sindy risked Brexit....Bojabob said:
Until Brexit completely changed the constitution of the UK. Another referendum in such circumstances was within the SNP manifesto – so they are simply keeping a (perfectly reasonable) manifesto pledge by calling for one...chestnut said:
They had the option. They voted to stay.Bojabob said:Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.0 -
I don't think that's the case. It's like saying every marriage is doomed because any could end in divorce. You have to work away at every relationship. That's why I am not very keen on either the SNP or the Brexit crowd.Casino_Royale said:
If the relationship of Scotland to a supranational political union only 40 years old is deemed more important than its national political union with its neighbour to the south of over 300 years standing, then the Union was doomed anyway.RobD said:
I don't think anyone would argue that the EU hasn't fundamentally changed in the last forty years.OldKingCole said:
40 years ago doesn’t count. Ask any Leaver.SouthamObserver said:
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-19780 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Will that be listed on the currency markets as AIGT?CarlottaVance said:
Given that the currency will be the key plank of the ScotsIndy manifesto would you expect her to release those details today – before a referendum as been agreed?
For what it's worth it will be the Euro or a Scottish pound pegged to Sterling. A pegged currency worked in Ireland and continues to work in several European countries so while we can argue the toss about what is best for Scotland the issue is far from insurmountable.0 -
They can start with sea-shells, strung around the neck.CarlottaVance said:
Again, on the most basic issues of nationhood, answers came there none. It killed them in 2014, it will kill them in 2018/19/20/whenever.0 -
The copy and paster is a RemainerTheuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
0 -
chestnut said:
They had the option. They voted to stay.Bojabob said:Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.
Pretty obviously this. In terms of how long the Union has existed the last refrendum was only a few seconds ago. The result was decisive and 'once in a generation.' Consistency is listening to the result of a referendum and acting on it rather than ignoring it and saying 'best of three'.0 -
It happened on the Conservatives' watch, yes, though Leave and Remain were both cross-party platforms and Corbyn was, for one, notable by his absence.Monty said:
And yet it is the Conservative Party that have impoverished the country with Brexit and in all likelihood led to its break-up.david_herdson said:
That's true but the greater truth, which is still not fully accepted, is that the country was living miles beyond its means. That was always going to mean that there would be losers from the fiscal consolidation, which itself would bring anger and blame. That's not to say that the source of all anger and blame in the current system is the result of the Crash and austerity - it isn't - but a lot does lead back there.SouthamObserver said:
What has happened is a consequence of how those in government responded to the crash. There were choices. Certain ones were made.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
Well done.
However the notion that anti-EU sentiment would simply have dissipated had not the government called a referendum, or had another government been elected, is for the birds. The issue would at some point have come to a head unless the EU had chosen to either accommodate Britain in the kind of EU it wanted - a free trade / single market area - or if it had fundamentally reformed its federalising and had developed far greater levels of democracy and accountability.0 -
Slightly different angle for McPBers to perhaps advise upon.
To what extent have the SNP changed the education syllabus in Scotland to pro-independence (or pro-Scots rather than pro-Brit). They have been in charge for a while now so I presume they did their homework, so to speak, but have no knowledge of this area whatsoever.0 -
"Get your shit blue off our flag"?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, 'Get your shit starts off our flag' does the trick during The Ashes.RobD said:
God Save Your Queen does the trick at The Ashes.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html0 -
Will there be sub-divisions of this new currency? Pieces of AIGT?FrancisUrquhart said:
Will that be listed on the currency markets as AIGT?CarlottaVance said:0 -
That is absolutely true. Not least because if it is won on that basis, it will foster a growing resentment in those parts of the UK which are subsidising Scotland and whose money is apparently so ungratefully received.Casino_Royale said:If the argument about Scotland remaining within the Union is purely about money, then the No campaign will almost certainly lose.
Ultimately, the UK holds together in the long-term through a common-sense of British identity, or not at all.0 -
And any rational discourse would not ignore the existence of an established framework for modern European states - the European Union - which is already well established across these islands.Casino_Royale said:
Britain as a conceptual polity actually predates both England and Scotland.Yorkcity said:
Islam I see myself as Yorkshire first then English.Never really got this British concept.Was good to see the English flag again at international sporting events .Euro 96 was fantastic for that.Shame we do not have a national anthem though.God Save the queen is a damp squib of a song to rouse the crowd.isam said:Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html
The concept is that if you live on this damp foggy island, obstinately blocking the Atlantic from the North Sea, you have quite a lot in common with your fellow Britons climatically, geographically, culturally and even politically.
Any rational discourse would end up with a form of political association/union for the peoples of these islands, particularly in the 21st Century.
The question is: what form?0 -
Thanks for not stopping it, that's a big weight off..MarqueeMark said:
I think if you look back, you'll find I never "slobbered" over Ozzie. Never been a fan.Theuniondivvie said:
Ooh, Noma level grub there from someone who was slobbering over Ozzie in 2014.MarqueeMark said:
Aye, but the difference is Osborne was talking pish.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
Independent Scotland will be getting food parcels from Ethiopia....
And if Scotland wants independence, I won't stop it.Good luck. I'm not wedded to some eighteenth century political alignment. But the decision to go should be a measured, informed choice, not the headlong rush of the unthinking zealots. As the Purple One himself said, "For ever is a mighty long time...."0 -
I could if I wanted.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for not stopping it, that's a big weight off..MarqueeMark said:
I think if you look back, you'll find I never "slobbered" over Ozzie. Never been a fan.Theuniondivvie said:
Ooh, Noma level grub there from someone who was slobbering over Ozzie in 2014.MarqueeMark said:
Aye, but the difference is Osborne was talking pish.Theuniondivvie said:As a connoisseur of human hypocrisy, can I just thank in advance all the Brexiteers who whined incessantly about Project Fear, scaremongering & bullying and who are about to provide a Michelin star repast when they approvingly quote & rt every rehashed threat, warning & intervention on behalf of the Union. It's going to be reet tasty.
Independent Scotland will be getting food parcels from Ethiopia....
And if Scotland wants independence, I won't stop it.Good luck. I'm not wedded to some eighteenth century political alignment. But the decision to go should be a measured, informed choice, not the headlong rush of the unthinking zealots. As the Purple One himself said, "For ever is a mighty long time...."0 -
They also pledged once in a generation and there is no sign of any desire within the Scottish electorate to re-run the referendum.Bojabob said:
Until Brexit completely changed the constitution of the UK. Another referendum in such circumstances was within the SNP manifesto – so they are simply keeping a (perfectly reasonable) manifesto pledge by calling for one...chestnut said:
They had the option. They voted to stay.Bojabob said:Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.
Let them re-run it after 2021, if there is still a Scottish government that wants it.
Having referendums on the same subject every three of four years is lunacy.0 -
lol. Not a hope in hell. That said, my days in Wales appear to be drawing to a close. Time to return to dear old Blighty.tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.0 -
Jesus - now that really isn't 'interesting' at all.Scott_P said:0 -
SNP asking about deportation of EU citizens - Really0
-
I agree that the Union has been poorly managed, politically, over that same timeframe - but fundamentally I think Scottish nationalism is simply a much stronger pull on the emotions of Scots today over the British (for which they'd read: English) state.FF43 said:
I don't think that's the case. It's like saying every marriage is doomed because any could end in divorce. You have to work away at every relationship. That's why I am not very keen on either the SNP or the Brexit crowd.Casino_Royale said:
If the relationship of Scotland to a supranational political union only 40 years old is deemed more important than its national political union with its neighbour to the south of over 300 years standing, then the Union was doomed anyway.RobD said:
I don't think anyone would argue that the EU hasn't fundamentally changed in the last forty years.OldKingCole said:
40 years ago doesn’t count. Ask any Leaver.SouthamObserver said:
Can't see the SNP being as silly as the Catalan government was. The parties favouring the status quo were basically given the green light not to campaign. It was a very foolish move, but one borne out of being in an impossible position - the Spanish constitution explicitly states that the territorial integrity of Spain is a matte for all Spaniards. Catalonia cannot legally achieve separation without it being approved by a Spain-wide referendum. But it is the constitution that Catalans voted for by a very large margin, albeit nearly 40 years ago.FF43 said:
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
http://www.infolaso.com/english/policy/35-policy-spain/715-spanish-constitution-19780 -
I'm not an expert but I'm pretty sure that there are strong rules about not pushing political lines in the classroom (as opposed to discussing current affairs), and you can be sure the Tele/Mail/Express and their finger puppets would be shrieking loudly if that wasn't the case. There's certainly more of an emphasis on Scottish (rather than British) history & literature, whether that encourages indy, who knows?Bojabob said:Slightly different angle for McPBers to perhaps advise upon.
To what extent have the SNP changed the education syllabus in Scotland to pro-independence (or pro-Scots rather than pro-Brit). They have been in charge for a while now so I presume they did their homework, so to speak, but have no knowledge of this area whatsoever.0 -
Sorry but I don't buy that argument. There was no national craving for Brexit. It was an ill-considered ruse from Cameron to placate the Conservative Party that backfired spectacularly.david_herdson said:
It happened on the Conservatives' watch, yes, though Leave and Remain were both cross-party platforms and Corbyn was, for one, notable by his absence.Monty said:
And yet it is the Conservative Party that have impoverished the country with Brexit and in all likelihood led to its break-up.david_herdson said:
That's true but the greater truth, which is still not fully accepted, is that the country was living miles beyond its means. That was always going to mean that there would be losers from the fiscal consolidation, which itself would bring anger and blame. That's not to say that the source of all anger and blame in the current system is the result of the Crash and austerity - it isn't - but a lot does lead back there.SouthamObserver said:
What has happened is a consequence of how those in government responded to the crash. There were choices. Certain ones were made.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
Well done.
However the notion that anti-EU sentiment would simply have dissipated had not the government called a referendum, or had another government been elected, is for the birds. The issue would at some point have come to a head unless the EU had chosen to either accommodate Britain in the kind of EU it wanted - a free trade / single market area - or if it had fundamentally reformed its federalising and had developed far greater levels of democracy and accountability.0 -
Just been looking at the old names for Scottish currency. Which I guess might be needed.
Scottish Groats clearly a front-runner
If they did have their own currency I guess it would be one possible name. Crown perhaps has more appeal, but is maybe tricky in that it points to a Monarch in England. Seems that James III issued 'Unicorns' - quite like that!
0 -
Exactly. The European Commission has been very clear. They will take no actions and make no pronouncements about Scottish Indy unless asked to do so by the UK government.FF43 said:
No. Germany and France etc wouldn't play along unless independence was agreed with the UK government.TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/841309743402631168
EuroMPs can prance around all they like and shake Nicola's hands at various photo ops but the Commission will remain impassive.0 -
Doesn't quite roll off the tongue like 'Pound' or 'euro' does it? how many haggis will you get for one 'all in good time'?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yes, that's what I was driving at.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not an expert but I'm pretty sure that there are strong rules about pushing political lines in the classroom (as opposed to discussing current affairs), and you can be sure the Tele/Mail/Express and their finger puppets would be shrieking loudly if that wasn't the case. There's certainly more of an emphasis on Scottish (as opposed to British) history & literature, whether that encourages indy, who knows?Bojabob said:Slightly different angle for McPBers to perhaps advise upon.
To what extent have the SNP changed the education syllabus in Scotland to pro-independence (or pro-Scots rather than pro-Brit). They have been in charge for a while now so I presume they did their homework, so to speak, but have no knowledge of this area whatsoever.
Thanks.0 -
This is nonsense though. The UK constitution has nothing to do with the EU. It dates back hundreds of years, and even the devolution/peace settlements of the Blair Government post 1997 had very little to do with the EU, even if they did reference them.Bojabob said:
Until Brexit completely changed the constitution of the UK. Another referendum in such circumstances was within the SNP manifesto – so they are simply keeping a (perfectly reasonable) manifesto pledge by calling for one...chestnut said:
They had the option. They voted to stay.Bojabob said:Just trying to keep up.
Are there Leavers out there who a) support leaving the EU but b) oppose Scotland being given the option to leave the UK?
If so, can they please explain their reasoning.
It is a sign of how dominant the EU has become in setting the political agenda on the continent of Europe, however, and may be a sign of how fundamentally fragile the UK political union has become in recent years in commanding political allegiance over a looser internationalism that some find more modern and attractive.0
