I'm not convinced by suggestions of delay to 2021. The reason for a 2nd referendum is Brexit - it will have to be held before Brexit to have enough impact. The SNP case will be simple: 1. The UK will be run by the Tories for a generation 2. The Tories don't have the UK's best interests in mind never mind Scotland 3. Brexit shows self-determination wins over all other factors. You really can change your future in a way many people didn't believe in 2014 4. Yes Scotland trades most with the rest of the UK. But that ship will sink with hard Brexit, so reforge the auld alliance and switch the focus back to Europe 5. An independent Scotland will remain part of the single market (she WILL get that offered by Brussels). And there's no question about being thrown out of the British Isles single market as we already have non-UK members in it (Eire, IOM, CI) 6. There's no risk-free status quo to fall back on now. Independence - the single market is more of the status quo than thrown on the mercy of WTO tariffs.
And so timings. Scotland will declare the referendum for next autumn and start its discussions with Brussels now. Westminster will say no, Scotland will go ahead with the vote anyway (or, unless Maybe doesn't want to present that particular gift to the leave case, it will happen next autumn without dispute).
Either way, the offer will be an independent Scotland in Europe, or a Scotland dragged to the bottom of the Atlantic by the sinking Brexit Britain. And if I had a vote, I'd vote to leave. And it puts SLAB in a hell of a position. Campaign to remain and give succour to both Corbyn and the Tories. Or campaign to leave and risk giving it to the SNP.
Were I Dugdale the appealing option surely is to provide the opposition to the SNP in an independent Scotland offering a Labour version of independence rather than eternal SNP rule.
The vast majority of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK only a minority of UK exports go to the EU so Scexit would be even tougher for Scotland than the Brexit you voted for will be for the UK, especially with the inevitable hard border
The details of Brexit were the responsibilities of individuals but had - say - Miliband won the 2015 election, the pressure to Brexit wouldn't have gone away.
And the pressures were largely self-generated by a British political class that never understood how to communicate the realities of EU membership to the electorate in an honest and transparent way, or even to understand it themselves.
Mind you, looking on the bright side, a Labour-led government without Scottish MPs to support it looks an agreeably remote prospect.
I suspect the end of the UK will bring about a level of soul-searching and reflection in England that we probably need and which, in any case, will be forced on us by the rest of the world. That will have an affect on domestic politics.
It would make it difficult to pretend that we are any longer a major power, presumably we will lose our UN security council seat and find it hard to justify Trident. Is that what Leavers envisaged?
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
The details of Brexit were the responsibilities of individuals but had - say - Miliband won the 2015 election, the pressure to Brexit wouldn't have gone away.
And the pressures were largely self-generated by a British political class that never understood how to communicate the realities of EU membership to the electorate in an honest and transparent way, or even to understand it themselves.
Of course it is much more likely that people are stupid than they dislike EU governance, eh?
But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
The first item on the agenda of negotiations is the rights of EU citizens. This means that the question of whether there should be a referendum on Scottish independence in order to protect Scotland from being Brexited is not merely for the UK government, but something which the EU will have to take a position on if May tries to resist.
But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
It's just a nonsense.
Even if May really wanted to allow an indyref2, she knows that she can't, in practicality (and Sturgeon knows this).
So it will have to be after Brexit in 2019. Sometime between 2019-2021 therefore seems likeliest.
The details of Brexit were the responsibilities of individuals but had - say - Miliband won the 2015 election, the pressure to Brexit wouldn't have gone away.
And the pressures were largely self-generated by a British political class that never understood how to communicate the realities of EU membership to the electorate in an honest and transparent way, or even to understand it themselves.
Go on then: favour us with how they should have communicated the 'realities of EU membership to the electorate in an honest and transparent way'.
FWIW, I argued at the time that not enough of a positive case was made for the benefits of the EU: the single market, freedom of movement for UK citizens etc. But the fact remains that it was far too easy to portray as an unaccountable, undemocratic, incompetent, expensive, power-hungry machine - because there was a large element of truth to those assertions.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
I'm not a double-thief! I'm exercising the rare privileges of secondary posting afforded to all PBers who have offered winning tips at odds of 100/1 or more.
Fake news from Washington. Melania Trump was chatting to Rex Tillerson at a social gathering. "I bought Donald a parrot" she said. "That bird is so smart. Donald has already taught him to pronounce more than 200 words." "That's pretty impressive" said Tillerson. " But you realise he just speaks the words. He doesn't really understand what they mean." " Oh, I know" Melania said. " Neither does the parrot."
But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
It's just a nonsense.
Even if May really wanted to allow an indyref2, she knows that she can't, in practicality (and Sturgeon knows this).
So it will have to be after Brexit in 2019. Sometime between 2019-2021 therefore seems likeliest.
A refusal will be a gift to the yes campaign. Ignoring Scotland on Brexit. Ignoring Scotland on self-determination. Acting directly against the democratic will of the people.
And then what? The SNP hold the referendum anyway, if its a yes we get UDI. How would Maybe stop them?
"Unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing" - sounds like negotiations for hard brexit. When the diplomats who have to do the actual negotiation say 2 years isn't just impossible its insane, thats when you know its popcorn time.
If hard brexit sinks the union, and sinks the economy, its the death of the Conservative Party. I hope she knows what she's doing - thought conservatives were supposed to be conservative, not risk the house radicals...
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
TMay would resign if Scotland quit. Them's the rules. They may be unwritten, but they are the rules.
And any Tory Brexiteer would be toxic. The new leader would have to be someone like Osborne whose first act would be to go to Brussels and say that in the light of our divorce from Scotland, the A50 process should be postponed indefinitely or withdrawn.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
But May went for Hard Brexit, which is Sturgeon's excuse for this vote.
Look, this is a ridiculous argument. When politicians lose massive, epochal votes, they resign, as Salmond said after indyref - which is why he resigned. I predicted Cameron would have resigned if he'd lost indyref, he later admitted this was true (despite denying it beforehand).
I also predicted Cameron would resign if he lost Brexit - and he duly resigned (despite denying it beforehand).
TMay would resign if Scotland quit. Them's the rules. They may be unwritten, but they are the rules.
I am sorry but given the posters the Leave campaign put up against immigration, their exploitation of the issue and the fact that opposition to unrestricted free movement was probably what pushed Leave over the line, the idea May could do nothing to control immigration was not on the cards. May May could resign but the fact she never called any indyref2 referendum puts her in a different position to Salmond, Cameron and Sturgeon
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
maybe
but the nonsense that the SNP wouldnt seek an Indyref2 if it hadnt been for Brexit is simply plankton learning to post
the SNP exist for Independence thats their raison d'etre
TMay would resign if Scotland quit. Them's the rules. They may be unwritten, but they are the rules.
And any Tory Brexiteer would be toxic. The new leader would have to be someone like Osborne whose first act would be to go to Brussels and say that in the light of our divorce from Scotland, the A50 process should be postponed indefinitely or withdrawn.
Absolute dreamer.
Might be worth starting to face reality and the prospect of losing a large bet to SeanT.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
Useful excuse for her and causes difficulties for HMG - what's not for her ti like?
Amusingly she may end up out of UK and out of EU -
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
Sturgeon has called ref2 because she leads the SNP and that's their raison d'être.
Sturgeon: "These considerations lead me to the conclusion that if Scotland is to have a real choice - when the terms of Brexit are known, but before it is too late to choose our own course - then that choice must be offered between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019."
"When the terms of Brexit are known?" Is she taking the piss?
First point: it's not as if the Britain-EU27 deal (if there is one) will have to be implemented before the ink is dry, is it? But what does Sturgeon know about international negotiations? She is the fool who when asked whether independence would mean that people would get Scottish passports, said sure, they'll have "Scottish" written on them when they come up for renewal.
Second point: what if she likes the terms of the Brexit deal? Eh? Why doesn't she contribute to it? She just wants independence at all costs, even if Scotland goes bankrupt and the Calais "jungle" moves to Coldstream.
For goodness sake, let's see some opposition in Scotland to this latrine of a politician. Get your acts together and cooperate, Ruth, Kezia and Willie.
TMay would resign if Scotland quit. Them's the rules. They may be unwritten, but they are the rules.
And any Tory Brexiteer would be toxic. The new leader would have to be someone like Osborne whose first act would be to go to Brussels and say that in the light of our divorce from Scotland, the A50 process should be postponed indefinitely or withdrawn.
Nope Osborne is ruthless he would instantly turn himself into the man the Tory right can trust to screw the life out of Scotland in the Scexit negotiations, Brexit would by then be a done deal
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
Sturgeon has called ref2 because she leads the SNP and that's their raison d'être.
Brexit is just today's excuse.
It's inevitable as many of us pointed out during the referendum.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
she'd have called Indyref2 if we'd stayed in, given everyone in Scotland a million pounds, made George Clooney available to roger every weegie woman in Glasgow and guaranteed Scotland would win every Calacutta Cup match by a 200 point margin for the rest of time.
TMay would resign if Scotland quit. Them's the rules. They may be unwritten, but they are the rules.
And any Tory Brexiteer would be toxic. The new leader would have to be someone like Osborne whose first act would be to go to Brussels and say that in the light of our divorce from Scotland, the A50 process should be postponed indefinitely or withdrawn.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
Sturgeon has called ref2 because she leads the SNP and that's their raison d'être.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
Sturgeon has called ref2 because she leads the SNP and that's their raison d'être.
Brexit is just today's excuse.
It was the material change in circumstances she needed
It is starting to feel like the 1970s in International football Scotland qualify for the 1974 and 78 world cup England fail to get to any international tournament.However this time it is politics.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
I would imagine that the general mood about Scotland is mainly ambivalence but moves on to annoyance with Sturgeon and her blathering on and on and on and on....
Scotland's internal politics will become as irrelevant to us as those of the Irish republic.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
The Welsh ones probably don't.
The scots and Irish ones do?
"Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?"
Like the Welsh Leavers, I suspect the Scottish and the Irish ones don't identify as English either. My guess is that they are the most likely of all to identify as British (except the SNP supporters who voted Leave to get a referendum).
How much is Nicola's announcement today intended to sway the votes going on this evening in the Lords and Commons? I'd say quite a lot, it would be good for the SNP if there were a load of caveats in the Bill.
On the subject of the actual referendum, surely it's inconceivable it would be allowed to take place before EU withdrawal, no matter how much Ms Grievance McGrievanceface would like that to be the case. The Lords, ironically, are likely to be those who throw it out on the basis that simultaneous negotiations on massive constitutional matters is a silly idea.
That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
If a transitional period to manage Brexit is possible, the reverse for SCOT+EU (copyright claimed!) could also be possible.
Scotland already has the capacity to meet 20-25 of the Acquis Communautaire as things stand, and more could be added in the two year period before Brexit.
What Nicola really need now is a sponsor inside the EU to push its case for quick accession/acceptance.
Ms Sturgeon is definitely aiming for a psychological effect with her timing. The announcement clearly aims to upstage Mrs May's Article 50 trigger any time from tomorrow. An independence referendum will hang like a dark cloud over the Brexit when it actually happens in two years time. Mrs May will declare Brexit to be Brexit, a huge success and Britain is taking back control. And everyone will be thinking, there's no Br in the Brexit and Britain may no longer exist to take back control.
It is starting to feel like the 1970s in International football Scotland qualify for the 1974 and 78 world cup England fail to get to any international tournament.However this time it is politics.
This would be the same England who trounced Scotland on Saturday and will still be in the G20 and NATO regardless of Scottish independence
I'm not convinced by suggestions of delay to 2021. The reason for a 2nd referendum is Brexit - it will have to be held before Brexit to have enough impact. The SNP case will be simple: 1. The UK will be run by the Tories for a generation 2. The Tories don't have the UK's best interests in mind never mind Scotland 3. Brexit shows self-determination wins over all other factors. You really can change your future in a way many people didn't believe in 2014 4. Yes Scotland trades most with the rest of the UK. But that ship will sink with hard Brexit, so reforge the auld alliance and switch the focus back to Europe 5. An independent Scotland will remain part of the single market (she WILL get that offered by Brussels). And there's no question about being thrown out of the British Isles single market as we already have non-UK members in it (Eire, IOM, CI) 6. There's no risk-free status quo to fall back on now. Independence - the single market is more of the status quo than thrown on the mercy of WTO tariffs.
And so timings. Scotland will declare the referendum for next autumn and start its discussions with Brussels now. Westminster will say no, Scotland will go ahead with the vote anyway (or, unless Maybe doesn't want to present that particular gift to the leave case, it will happen next autumn without dispute).
Either way, the offer will be an independent Scotland in Europe, or a Scotland dragged to the bottom of the Atlantic by the sinking Brexit Britain. And if I had a vote, I'd vote to leave. And it puts SLAB in a hell of a position. Campaign to remain and give succour to both Corbyn and the Tories. Or campaign to leave and risk giving it to the SNP.
Were I Dugdale the appealing option surely is to provide the opposition to the SNP in an independent Scotland offering a Labour version of independence rather than eternal SNP rule.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to Scexit
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
she'd have called Indyref2 if we'd stayed in, given everyone in Scotland a million pounds, made George Clooney available to roger every weegie woman in Glasgow and guaranteed Scotland would win every Calacutta Cup match by a 200 point margin for the rest of time.
She would have had almost no chance of winning though so she probably would not whatever threats she made
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
The Welsh ones probably don't.
The scots and Irish ones do?
"Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?"
Like the Welsh Leavers, I suspect the Scottish and the Irish ones don't identify as English either. My guess is that they are the most likely of all to identify as British (except the SNP supporters who voted Leave to get a referendum).
Well seeing as you knew that I meant English people at the start, and were just being smart, I guess we can leave it rather than waste time
Although it could be that most Leave voters identify as English
Sturgeon: "These considerations lead me to the conclusion that if Scotland is to have a real choice - when the terms of Brexit are known, but before it is too late to choose our own course - then that choice must be offered between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019."
"When the terms of Brexit are known?" Is she taking the piss?
First point: it's not as if the Britain-EU27 deal (if there is one) will have to be implemented before the ink is dry, is it? But what does Sturgeon know about international negotiations? She is the fool who when asked whether independence would mean that people would get Scottish passports, said sure, they'll have "Scottish" written on them when they come up for renewal.
Second point: what if she likes the terms of the Brexit deal? Eh? Why doesn't she contribute to it? She just wants independence at all costs, even if Scotland goes bankrupt and the Calais "jungle" moves to Coldstream.
For goodness sake, let's see some opposition in Scotland to this latrine of a politician. Get your acts together and cooperate, Ruth, Kezia and Willie.
She's desperate.
She knows that if she can't get the referendum done before 2020/2021 that the unionists will come together to loosen the SNP's grip on Scotland and her time will have passed.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
The Welsh ones probably don't.
The scots and Irish ones do?
"Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?"
Like the Welsh Leavers, I suspect the Scottish and the Irish ones don't identify as English either. My guess is that they are the most likely of all to identify as British (except the SNP supporters who voted Leave to get a referendum).
Well seeing as you knew that I meant English people at the start, and were just being smart, I guess we can leave it rather than waste time
Thank you Mr Pit! I'll be in your part of the world again in a few weeks time, but down towards the Saudi border again so no chance of a get-together unfortunately.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to Scexit
I am very confident that were the UK to break up this would be considered a far more significant event than the UK leaving the EU. We may find out soon enough.
It is starting to feel like the 1970s in International football Scotland qualify for the 1974 and 78 world cup England fail to get to any international tournament.However this time it is politics.
Aint too much danger of it happening in football any time soon.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
Mind you, looking on the bright side, a Labour-led government without Scottish MPs to support it looks an agreeably remote prospect.
I suspect the end of the UK will bring about a level of soul-searching and reflection in England that we probably need and which, in any case, will be forced on us by the rest of the world. That will have an affect on domestic politics.
Indeed. We have already seen how referendums can force a reshaping of views. They will be as nothing compared to the break up of our country.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
she'd have called Indyref2 if we'd stayed in, given everyone in Scotland a million pounds, made George Clooney available to roger every weegie woman in Glasgow and guaranteed Scotland would win every Calacutta Cup match by a 200 point margin for the rest of time.
She would have had almost no chance of winning though so she probably would not whatever threats she made
I wonder if this will be a once in a generation opportunity?
Fruitflies?
Salmon.
"Once in a generation" they say, but this belies their monikers – salmon return to spawn once in two to four years, whereas sturgeon take some fifteen years to reach spawning maturity.
But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
The first item on the agenda of negotiations is the rights of EU citizens. This means that the question of whether there should be a referendum on Scottish independence in order to protect Scotland from being Brexited is not merely for the UK government, but something which the EU will have to take a position on if May tries to resist.
The EU has made clear they have no interest in those people other than as useful weapons
I'm not convinced by suggestions of delay to 2021. The reason for a 2nd referendum is Brexit - it will have to be held before Brexit to have enough impact. The SNP case will be simple: 1. The UK will be run by the Tories for a generation 2. The Tories don't have the UK's best interests in mind never mind Scotland 3. Brexit shows self-determination wins over all other factors. You really can change your future in a way many people didn't believe in 2014 4. Yes Scotland trades most with the rest of the UK. But that ship will sink with hard Brexit, so reforge the auld alliance and switch the focus back to Europe 5. An independent Scotland will remain part of the single market (she WILL get that offered by Brussels). And there's no question about being thrown out of the British Isles single market as we already have non-UK members in it (Eire, IOM, CI) 6. There's no risk-free status quo to fall back on now. Independence - the single market is more of the status quo than thrown on the mercy of WTO tariffs.
And so timings. Scotland will declare the referendum for next autumn and start its discussions with Brussels now. Westminster will say no, Scotland will go ahead with the vote anyway (or, unless Maybe doesn't want to present that particular gift to the leave case, it will happen next autumn without dispute).
Either way, the offer will be an independent Scotland in Europe, or a Scotland dragged to the bottom of the Atlantic by the sinking Brexit Britain. And if I had a vote, I'd vote to leave. And it puts SLAB in a hell of a position. Campaign to remain and give succour to both Corbyn and the Tories. Or campaign to leave and risk giving it to the SNP.
Were I Dugdale the appealing option surely is to provide the opposition to the SNP in an independent Scotland offering a Labour version of independence rather than eternal SNP rule.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Unfortunately I don't think so. A potential hard border between the rUK and Scotland (ie no EEA) is an argument to reject independence.
What might save the Union is oodles and oodles of patronage that Ms Sturgeon could claim as her "working hard for Scotland". Incidentally that patronage wouldn't just apply to Scotland. "Taking back control" really means buying people off on a massive scale: Northern Ireland, member states of the EU, especially in East Europe, favoured corporates like Nissan, third party countries that might do a deal with the UK. Mrs May doesn't appear to be interested in going down that route however.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
she'd have called Indyref2 if we'd stayed in, given everyone in Scotland a million pounds, made George Clooney available to roger every weegie woman in Glasgow and guaranteed Scotland would win every Calacutta Cup match by a 200 point margin for the rest of time.
She would have had almost no chance of winning though so she probably would not whatever threats she made
Yet more guff
The fact you have no factual response I think confirms the point
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?
The Welsh ones probably don't.
The scots and Irish ones do?
"Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?"
Like the Welsh Leavers, I suspect the Scottish and the Irish ones don't identify as English either. My guess is that they are the most likely of all to identify as British (except the SNP supporters who voted Leave to get a referendum).
Well seeing as you knew that I meant English people at the start, and were just being smart, I guess we can leave it rather than waste time
Ha, ha!!
?
In fact it looks like my original contention could be true
England had 15.2m Leave voters, while the Scots, Welsh and NI Leavers only add up to 2.2m
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
I know you are joking, but it's worth pointing out that Catalonia wishes to stay inside the EU and will not do anything to sour relationships with Brussels.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to Scexit
I am very confident that were the UK to break up this would be considered a far more significant event than the UK leaving the EU. We may find out soon enough.
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the UK over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or ill
@AliBunkallSKY: NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg tells me that if Scotland leaves the UK it would also leave NATO, and would have to reapply to join.
Thank you Mr Pit! I'll be in your part of the world again in a few weeks time, but down towards the Saudi border again so no chance of a get-together unfortunately.
Have a good day today, and a safe trip here. You're in O&G, or working on the nuclear station?
But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
The first item on the agenda of negotiations is the rights of EU citizens. This means that the question of whether there should be a referendum on Scottish independence in order to protect Scotland from being Brexited is not merely for the UK government, but something which the EU will have to take a position on if May tries to resist.
The EU has made clear they have no interest in those people other than as useful weapons
The voters of England and Wales made clear that they are not that interested in protecting the rights of British nationals living in EU member states on 23rd June 2016.
I would extremely surprised if it doesn't. Joining the EEA and EFTA would require agreement from Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and from the EU27 (actually EU28 until the UK actually leaves!). There might be a mechanism whereby the EU could use QMV and force any dissenters amongst the EU27 to amend the EEA Treaty against their will, but that must surely be politically very unlikely even if were legally possible.
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. It's tiny, it's remote and its public finances as an independent state would be dire. Why would our EU friends go out of their way to give it special treatment? They've got bigger fish to fry.
Yes that woudl eb why they are taking in all the Eastern Europen countries that are way way smaller than Scotland , they will have no interest in 30%+ of EU fishing interests right enough
That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain 2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership 3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to Scexit
I am very confident that were the UK to break up this would be considered a far more significant event than the UK leaving the EU. We may find out soon enough.
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the UK over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or ill
It is starting to feel like the 1970s in International football Scotland qualify for the 1974 and 78 world cup England fail to get to any international tournament.However this time it is politics.
This would be the same England who trounced Scotland on Saturday and will still be in the G20 and NATO regardless of Scottish independence
If Brexit was a contributory factor in Scottish Independence and a United Ireland .England and Wales would be a very diminished actor on the world stage.Personally we need a politician with gravitas to put the case for major constitutional reform .A federal UK with an English Parliament preferably in York.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
more guff
Yet Sturgeon has today called indyref2 precisely because of Brexit
she'd have called Indyref2 if we'd stayed in, given everyone in Scotland a million pounds, made George Clooney available to roger every weegie woman in Glasgow and guaranteed Scotland would win every Calacutta Cup match by a 200 point margin for the rest of time.
She would have had almost no chance of winning though so she probably would not whatever threats she made
Yet more guff
The fact you have no factual response I think confirms the point
... b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Indeed.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they needed
Whoever is PM when the Scots vote for independence will be remembered for that above all else. May knows this, as did Cameron.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
If the Scots vote for independence and of course if Sturgeon loses that will define her career too even more so than May because she called the vote, at least May will also go down as the PM who took the UK out of the EU regardless of what Scotland does
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to Scexit
I am very confident that were the UK to break up this would be considered a far more significant event than the UK leaving the EU. We may find out soon enough.
That is absolutely right. The UK has a lot more history and the break up would be of one of the world's major players. The EU is still the EU without the UK, and the UK will probably be rejoining soon.
Mind you, looking on the bright side, a Labour-led government without Scottish MPs to support it looks an agreeably remote prospect.
I suspect the end of the UK will bring about a level of soul-searching and reflection in England that we probably need and which, in any case, will be forced on us by the rest of the world. That will have an affect on domestic politics.
It would make it difficult to pretend that we are any longer a major power, presumably we will lose our UN security council seat and find it hard to justify Trident. Is that what Leavers envisaged?
I actually doubt that losing a few million Scots and a few hills and lakes would significantly weaken the rest of the UK economically/politically /militarily. People on here are doing the usual ott reactions spurred on by SeanT who's clearly started early today and SO who's glass is characteristically 3/4 empty!
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.
That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain 2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership 3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
It takes two to tango. Scotland and England are drifting apart. And Scotland has every right to join the EU once it leaves the UK. It would no doubt be fast-tracked to membership and be given special status in advance of that.
Comments
Is that what Leavers envisaged?
Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, WG.
FWIW, I argued at the time that not enough of a positive case was made for the benefits of the EU: the single market, freedom of movement for UK citizens etc. But the fact remains that it was far too easy to portray as an unaccountable, undemocratic, incompetent, expensive, power-hungry machine - because there was a large element of truth to those assertions.
And all because Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.
*polishes gold-plated wiffle stick*
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/841289598009520128
And then what? The SNP hold the referendum anyway, if its a yes we get UDI. How would Maybe stop them?
"Unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing" - sounds like negotiations for hard brexit. When the diplomats who have to do the actual negotiation say 2 years isn't just impossible its insane, thats when you know its popcorn time.
If hard brexit sinks the union, and sinks the economy, its the death of the Conservative Party. I hope she knows what she's doing - thought conservatives were supposed to be conservative, not risk the house radicals...
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/how-long-can-state-survive.html
but the nonsense that the SNP wouldnt seek an Indyref2 if it hadnt been for Brexit is simply plankton learning to post
the SNP exist for Independence thats their raison d'etre
Might be worth starting to face reality and the prospect of losing a large bet to SeanT.
Amusingly she may end up out of UK and out of EU -
Sturgeon has called ref2 because she leads the SNP and that's their raison d'être.
Brexit is just today's excuse.
"When the terms of Brexit are known?" Is she taking the piss?
First point: it's not as if the Britain-EU27 deal (if there is one) will have to be implemented before the ink is dry, is it? But what does Sturgeon know about international negotiations? She is the fool who when asked whether independence would mean that people would get Scottish passports, said sure, they'll have "Scottish" written on them when they come up for renewal.
Second point: what if she likes the terms of the Brexit deal? Eh? Why doesn't she contribute to it? She just wants independence at all costs, even if Scotland goes bankrupt and the Calais "jungle" moves to Coldstream.
For goodness sake, let's see some opposition in Scotland to this latrine of a politician. Get your acts together and cooperate, Ruth, Kezia and Willie.
Delusional in fact
Scotland's internal politics will become as irrelevant to us as those of the Irish republic.
Like the Welsh Leavers, I suspect the Scottish and the Irish ones don't identify as English either. My guess is that they are the most likely of all to identify as British (except the SNP supporters who voted Leave to get a referendum).
On the subject of the actual referendum, surely it's inconceivable it would be allowed to take place before EU withdrawal, no matter how much Ms Grievance McGrievanceface would like that to be the case. The Lords, ironically, are likely to be those who throw it out on the basis that simultaneous negotiations on massive constitutional matters is a silly idea.
Scotland already has the capacity to meet 20-25 of the Acquis Communautaire as things stand, and more could be added in the two year period before Brexit.
What Nicola really need now is a sponsor inside the EU to push its case for quick accession/acceptance.
Although it could be that most Leave voters identify as English
She knows that if she can't get the referendum done before 2020/2021 that the unionists will come together to loosen the SNP's grip on Scotland and her time will have passed.
salmon return to spawn once in two to four years, whereas sturgeon take some fifteen years to reach spawning maturity.
What might save the Union is oodles and oodles of patronage that Ms Sturgeon could claim as her "working hard for Scotland". Incidentally that patronage wouldn't just apply to Scotland. "Taking back control" really means buying people off on a massive scale: Northern Ireland, member states of the EU, especially in East Europe, favoured corporates like Nissan, third party countries that might do a deal with the UK. Mrs May doesn't appear to be interested in going down that route however.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/841282641588563968
minimal change in rate of exchange
/Scott on/ Because of Brexit / Scott off/
In fact it looks like my original contention could be true
England had 15.2m Leave voters, while the Scots, Welsh and NI Leavers only add up to 2.2m
So yes, most Leavers probably identify as English
I mean, Emily Thornberry et al.
Would attract universal derision.
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Wallonia
Faroes
Corsica
Lombardy
Sardinia
Sicily
Frisia
Scania
To name but a few....
No end of mischief......
English Leavers 15.2m
Scottish Leavers 1m
Welsh Leavers 854k
NI Leavers 349k
Probable that most Leavers identify as English
I'd rather the UK split than Belgium.
You won. Suck it up!
Really it was one of this country's worst ideas