politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take plac
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Which is why any referendum in Scotland will be pushed past the next Scottish Parliament elections. If the SNP want their referendum, they'll need a renewed mandate for it in the context of their work over the last decade at health, education, policing and the rest of what they're supposed to be doing in power.MarkHopkins said:
Sturgeon was told by the Supreme Court that Scotland could not have a veto on leaving the EU.
So she just tries to create her own one anyway. Don't think it's going to work, just makes everything harder for everyone.
Pity she can't focus on Scotland's Health, Education, and Employment. Those are the bits she's supposed to be responsible for.0 -
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I suspect most of them don't care much beyond the rugby.SouthamObserver said:
The Welsh ones probably don't.isam said:
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?Alanbrooke said:
more guffHYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.0 -
Not letting an influential foreign power threaten the mouth of the Thames.Alanbrooke said:
what is the sodding point of Belgium ?
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The point of Belgium is to annoy the French.Alanbrooke said:
what is the sodding poiunt of Belgium ?TheScreamingEagles said:
We cannot split up Belgium, Belgium was created to get up the nose of the French.CarlottaVance said:
Flanders,Richard_Nabavi said:
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.Charles said:I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
Wallonia
Faroes
Corsica
Lombardy
Sardinia
Sicily
Frisia
Scania
To name but a few....
No end of mischief......
I'd rather the UK split than Belgium.
Really it was one of this country's worst ideas
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I don't either. But, if the price for maintaining the Union is that England and Wales must always elect centre-left Europhile governments, then I judge that price to be too high.SeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.HYUFD said:
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the Uk over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or illSouthamObserver said:
I am may find out soon enough.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to ScexitSouthamObserver said:
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.HYUFD said:
If the SSouthamObserver said:
ecause Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.HYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
rity by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
Also, some of us have lots of Scottish relatives in Scotland, and are genuinely concerned that iScotland would be an economic basket-case for a decade. The deficit is just huge. The currency, the bank, the rest of it. Nightmare.
The oil has gone. The economic argument for indy is now much worse than it was in 2014, and it was wobbly enough then. Scots would really suffer. And they are my relatives (and my fellow Brits).
I've no doubt that eventually Scotland would prosper, but they would endure pain, interim, which would make Brexit look like a mild headcold.
I really don't want that for them, and I don't want my country partitioned.0 -
So Sturgeon REALLY wants the Scottish people to decide whether or not to leave the EU before the Scottish people know the final terms of the UK's departure from the EU? Because if we know anything about the EU, it is the terms to be offered by the EU won't be known until the very last possible moment. It is the way they operate.
What if May plays a blinder and gets a deal that is towards the better end of possible outcomes? The Scots are supposed to bet on their hand before the river card is seen. And before they have any idea what the EU would offer them.
I also think the Scots will peer over the edge - and pull back from independence. Sturgeon's position offers them the worst of all outcomes - an early vote before they know what they might get either way. And if the SNP loses, there won't be an IndyRef3 for decades.
May has no reason to play ball with anything earlier than the date the UK leaves the EU before deciding the timing of IndyRef2. What is Scotland going to do if she says bugger off - vote in a landslide SNP government? Ooooh, scared...0 -
No country has a right to join the EU. And iScotland joining the EU with rUK outside it is tantamount to shooting themselves in the head.SouthamObserver said:It takes two to tango. Scotland and England are drifting apart. And Scotland has every right to join the EU once it leaves the UK. It would no doubt be fast-tracked to membership and be given special status in advance of that.
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SouthamObserver said:
It takes two to tango. Scotland and England are drifting apart. And Scotland has every right to join the EU once it leaves the UK. It would no doubt be fast-tracked to membership and be given special status in advance of that.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
"no doubt" => "I don't have an argument for this but if I say it strongly enough hopefully no one will question it"
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Well, it's up to the Scots who quite like being British to put this to bed once and for all.SeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.HYUFD said:
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the Uk over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or illSouthamObserver said:
I am may find out soon enough.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to ScexitSouthamObserver said:
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.HYUFD said:
If the SSouthamObserver said:
ecause Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.HYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
rity by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
If that means Tories voting Labour and Labourites voting Tory in the 2020 and 2021 elections than that has to be it for the union.
They have to rid themselves of the SNP.
The SNP are destabilising Scotland and making it uninvestable through their inability to actually accept the outcome of a vote.
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Wasn't Belgium invented as a neutral venue for European wars?TheScreamingEagles said:
The point of Belgium is to annoy the French.Alanbrooke said:
what is the sodding poiunt of Belgium ?TheScreamingEagles said:
We cannot split up Belgium, Belgium was created to get up the nose of the French.CarlottaVance said:
Flanders,Richard_Nabavi said:
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.Charles said:I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
Wallonia
Faroes
Corsica
Lombardy
Sardinia
Sicily
Frisia
Scania
To name but a few....
No end of mischief......
I'd rather the UK split than Belgium.
Really it was one of this country's worst ideas0 -
Interestingly Ireland's Health system is significantly weaker than the UK NHS - which for all it's faults is broadly universal. Not so Eire.chestnut said:
I would imagine that the general mood about Scotland is mainly ambivalence but moves on to annoyance with Sturgeon and her blathering on and on and on and on....isam said:
Most Leave voters probably don't care. Don't they identify as English over British?Alanbrooke said:
more guffHYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for Farage! Hurrah!SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
Scotland's internal politics will become as irrelevant to us as those of the Irish republic.0 -
LOL! Let's face it, most of us turn up here to see the OTT reactions (particluarly from Sean T)felix said:
I actually doubt that losing a few million Scots and a few hills and lakes would significantly weaken the rest of the UK economically/politically /militarily. People on here are doing the usual ott reactions spurred on by SeanT who's clearly started early today and SO who's glass is characteristically 3/4 empty!logical_song said:
It would make it difficult to pretend that we are any longer a major power, presumably we will lose our UN security council seat and find it hard to justify Trident.SouthamObserver said:
I suspect the end of the UK will bring about a level of soul-searching and reflection in England that we probably need and which, in any case, will be forced on us by the rest of the world. That will have an affect on domestic politics.Richard_Nabavi said:Mind you, looking on the bright side, a Labour-led government without Scottish MPs to support it looks an agreeably remote prospect.
Is that what Leavers envisaged?
I do think it's a bit much for Sean to heap all the blame on TM if Scotland does LEAVE though.
Fact is ALL of us who voted to LEAVE have to accept responsibility for whatever consequences follow through.
For my own part the buck stops with me, for good or ill...0 -
I'm amazed that people from the South of England care whether Scotland is part of the same country as us or not. It's always been a foreign country as far as I'm concerned, they have their own culture and ways and what's more, of course they don't want to be governed by people they don't vote for.
Same goes for unionist kippers, a contorted logic needed there I think
We can still be friends, just as we can with all other countries.0 -
Wow - you got me there, I expressed an opinion. It's never happened on PB before :-DMarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:
It takes two to tango. Scotland and England are drifting apart. And Scotland has every right to join the EU once it leaves the UK. It would no doubt be fast-tracked to membership and be given special status in advance of that.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
The "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
"no doubt" => "I don't have an argument for this but if I say it strongly enough hopefully no one will question it"
My opinion is based on the verifiable fact that Scotland fulfils more of the EU membership criteria than any of the other countries currently hoping to join the EU.
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en
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PB Brexityoonery 1.0: If Sturgeon calls a referendum she'll lose it.
PB Brexityoonery 2.0: Sturgeon is bluffing, she'll never call a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 2.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff.
PB Brexityoonery 3.0: May will never allow Sturgeon to have a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 3.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff because May will never allow her to have a referendum.
It'll be fascinating to watch the operating systems evolve (sic).0 -
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.0 -
The Russians!!!
Court News
Russian whistle blower could have been murdered by a poison vegetable switched for sorrel in the soup he ate for lunch, a court heard.0 -
Neither do I really and I voted Remain but I recognise most of my fellow countrymen, at least in England and Wales did not and if Scotland will not follow the rest of the country in Brexit then so be it, tough as it may be for both of us in the short term but especially for themSeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.HYUFD said:
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the Uk over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or illSouthamObserver said:
I am may find out soon enough.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to ScexitSouthamObserver said:
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.HYUFD said:
If the SSouthamObserver said:
ecause Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.HYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
rity by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
Also, some of us have lots of Scottish relatives in Scotland, and are genuinely concerned that iScotland would be an economic basket-case for a decade. The deficit is just huge. The currency, the bank, the rest of it. Nightmare.
The oil has gone. The economic argument for indy is now much worse than it was in 2014, and it was wobbly enough then. Scots would really suffer. And they are my relatives (and my fellow Brits).
I've no doubt that eventually Scotland would prosper, but they would endure pain, interim, which would make Brexit look like a mild headcold.
I really don't want that for them, and I don't want my country partitioned.0 -
There'll be plenty of Scots thinking "aye, she has a point...."Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Theresa May accuses Nicola Sturgeon of "playing politics" with call for indyref2
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Neither. 'Normal' power.Sandpit said:
Have a good day today, and a safe trip here. You're in O&G, or working on the nuclear station?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr Pit! I'll be in your part of the world again in a few weeks time, but down towards the Saudi border again so no chance of a get-together unfortunately.Sandpit said:Oh, and Happy Birthday @SandyRentool
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I agree. But Holyrood elections aren't pure FPTP. They have an additional member system. So there is no need for Unionists to vote for their unpreferred party. What we need is for the Tories, Labour and LibDems to cooperate. I am left Labour, but I would be overjoyed to see a Unionist coalition under the leader of the party with the most seats, even if that's the Scottish Tories.chestnut said:Well, it's up to the Scots who quite like being British to put this to bed once and for all.
If that means Tories voting Labour and Labourites voting Tory in the 2020 and 2021 elections than that has to be it for the union.
They have to rid themselves of the SNP.
The SNP are destabilising Scotland and making it uninvestable through their inability to actually accept the outcome of a vote.
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Or Well if we're gonna start punning - maybe it could be seen as the 'road tae glasgie pier' while 'keeping the thistle aloft'Tissue_Price said:
A homage, if you will.Richard_Nabavi said:
We could always reciprocate by offering Catalonia a special deal.Charles said:I'd be very surprised if anyone with authority in Europe negotiated with the SNP without May's explicit approval. It would be rightly deemed a fundamentally hostile act.
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And famously, David Cameron did not.Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Talk of a hard Brexit being an acceptable consequence of EU negotiating intransigence is exactly the position you would expect from somebody who had read Carpet Haggling in the Bazaar 1.01....0 -
But that will ultimately be their own choice.SeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.HYUFD said:
Why? Scotland has less than a tenth of the population of the UK but the Uk over a tenth of the population of the EU and if England and Wales voted Leave it was in part because they felt they could make their own way in the world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or illSouthamObserver said:
I am may find out soon enough.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to ScexitSouthamObserver said:
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.HYUFD said:
If the SSouthamObserver said:
ecause Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.HYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
rity by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
Also, some of us have lots of Scottish relatives in Scotland, and are genuinely concerned that iScotland would be an economic basket-case for a decade. The deficit is just huge. The currency, the bank, the rest of it. Nightmare.
The oil has gone. The economic argument for indy is now much worse than it was in 2014, and it was wobbly enough then. Scots would really suffer.And they are my relatives (and my fellow Brits).
I've no doubt that eventually Scotland would prosper, but they would endure pain, interim, which would make Brexit look like a mild headcold.
I really don't want that for them, and I don't want my country partitioned.0 -
Theresa May should knock this on the head today. No referendum until the UK has left the EU (including any transition period).
If Sturgeon tries to call a consultative referendum, I would expect that the UK government could stop it via the courts, as it's clearly not within the powers devolved to Holyrood.0 -
SouthamObserver said:
Wow - you got me there, I expressed an opinion. It's never happened on PB before :-D
My opinion is based on the verifiable fact that Scotland fulfils more of the EU membership criteria than any of the other countries currently hoping to join the EU.
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en
To join the EU, Scotland would have to join the Euro and thereby still have their finances controlled by an (ever further away) capital.
Either the Ref will be based on Scotland being independent with its own currency, and therefore no fast-tracking to the EU.
Or talking about joining the Euro and throwing away all the benefits of independence will lose the vote for the SNP.
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Despite all the hysteria on here I truly believe that NOTHING will happen. The world will continue to turn, the Scots won't leave and Brexit will be negotiated. There will be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth but it's all sound and fury signifying nothing.0
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NATO would lose their most important weapons of mass destruction - the haggis and the fried mars bar!Scott_P said:@AliBunkallSKY: NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg tells me that if Scotland leaves the UK it would also leave NATO, and would have to reapply to join.
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Citation required.SouthamObserver said:
Scotland and England are drifting apart.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
Just because you keep writing something doesn't make it true.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11242539/Scotland-and-England-How-different-are-they-really.html0 -
satisfying amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth on here
おやすみなさい。
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I was in Scotland on Wednesday. It feels like a different country. It also feels very prosperous.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.SouthamObserver said:
Scotland and England are drifting apart.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which is such an ignorant attitude, given that Scottish national identity is rammed down people's throats in Scotland far more than English identity is in England. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
Just because you keep writing something doesn't make it true.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11242539/Scotland-and-England-How-different-are-they-really.html
0 -
How?Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
0 -
No problem with anti-Semitism in the labour party...They had an independent inquiry and everything.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/13/labour-gorton-favourite-israeli-government-are-like-nazis/0 -
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/841262559827238913MarqueeMark said:
There'll be plenty of Scots thinking "aye, she has a point...."Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Theresa May accuses Nicola Sturgeon of "playing politics" with call for indyref2
0 -
Kudos for thatGIN1138 said:
LOL! Let's face it, most of us turn up here to see the OTT reactions (particluarly from Sean T)felix said:
I actually doubt that losing a few million Scots and a few hills and lakes would significantly weaken the rest of the UK economically/politically /militarily. People on here are doing the usual ott reactions spurred on by SeanT who's clearly started early today and SO who's glass is characteristically 3/4 empty!logical_song said:
It would make it difficult to pretend that we are any longer a major power, presumably we will lose our UN security council seat and find it hard to justify Trident.SouthamObserver said:
I suspect the end of the UK will bring about a level of soul-searching and reflection in England that we probably need and which, in any case, will be forced on us by the rest of the world. That will have an affect on domestic politics.Richard_Nabavi said:Mind you, looking on the bright side, a Labour-led government without Scottish MPs to support it looks an agreeably remote prospect.
Is that what Leavers envisaged?
I do think it's a bit much for Sean to heap all the blame on TM if Scotland does LEAVE though.
Fact is ALL of us who voted to LEAVE have to accept responsibility for whatever consequences follow through.
For my own part the buck stops with me, for good or ill...0 -
One of the issues that should keep Mr Glenn's hopes alive is that the Leave vote was pretty balkanised. Politically, I am not a happy bunny at present and do very much regret my decision to vote for Brexit. I may feel differently next year, of course (Hague wrote a good article in the Telegraph about this very issue).SeanT said:
Me too. I wanted Brexit, soft liberal Brexit at best, but any Brexit if that was the only choice. I voted Brexit knowing that iScotland was a real risk. Eyes wide openSean_F said:
I don't either. But, if the price for maintaining the Union is that England and Wales must always elect centre-left Europhile governments, then I judge that price to be too high.SeanT said:
Some of us quite like being British.HYUFD said:
Why? Scotlhe world without either the EU or Scotland, for good or illSouthamObserver said:
I am may find out soon enough.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, if anything Brexit would have led to ScexitSouthamObserver said:
The EU is a side issue compared to the continuing existence of the UK. Yep, if Sturgeon loses that is what she will be remembered for.HYUFD said:
If the SSouthamObserver said:
ecause Dave was scared that UKIP might let Ed Miliband win the 2015 general election.HYUFD said:
May voted Remain, if the country breaks up it will be Leave voters who provided the SNP with the fuel they neededSeanT said:
Lots of wishful thinking there. She hasn't even started (b) and (c) is years away.Mortimer said:
Indeed.Tissue_Price said:
Saved for so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.SeanT said:FFS this is all avoidable if TMay softens her Brexit stance. Go for EEA-type status. Fuck Liam Fox. The UK is saved.
rity by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
Meanwhile, she risks (d) breaking up the country by pursuing Hard Brexit. That will be her legacy, if she loses indyref2.
ld.
I really don't want that for them, and I don't want my country partitioned.
But this is potentially the worst of all possible Brexits, it's just that continued EU membership was going to be even worse.0 -
What would she [ May ] do if Sturgeon gives her a two-fingers salute ? Legally, doubtful, that is true. Practically, would England insist that the referendum did not happen ?SeanT said:
Serious Q: do you actually believe TMay will agree to a vote before Brexit is concluded in 2019?Theuniondivvie said:PB Brexityoonery 1.0: If Sturgeon calls a referendum she'll lose it.
PB Brexityoonery 2.0: Sturgeon is bluffing, she'll never call a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 2.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff.
PB Brexityoonery 3.0: May will never allow Sturgeon to have a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 3.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff because May will never allow her to have a referendum.
It'll be fascinating to watch the operating systems evolve (sic).0 -
Surprised you can't see Bath...Theuniondivvie said:Orkney seems slightly unbothered, Berlin tho'..
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/841289598009520128 0 -
You could say the same about Quebec and Canadasurbiton said:
I was in Scotland on Wednesday. It feels like a different country. It also feels very prosperous.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.SouthamObserver said:
Scotland and England are drifting apart.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
The SNP play to the juvenile mentality of "Don't you English tell us what to do". Which d. At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
Just because you keep writing something doesn't make it true.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11242539/Scotland-and-England-How-different-are-they-really.html0 -
Pretending you would walk away to strike a hard bargain, when the other side absolutely has to agree to a set of international treaties with you doesn't count as smart negotiating tactics. It's the worst possible thing she can do. The more she agrees the better this deal will be, The skill is in making her meagre hand count for as much as possible with the other side. She simply doesn't understand the first thing about negotiation.Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.0 -
I really hope that doesn't happen. There are other forms of disobedience she could then try. Relations could deteriorate fast - they did between Russia and the Ukraine - and no decent person wants that.RoyalBlue said:Theresa May should knock this on the head today. No referendum until the UK has left the EU (including any transition period).
If Sturgeon tries to call a consultative referendum, I would expect that the UK government could stop it via the courts, as it's clearly not within the powers devolved to Holyrood.
What May could say is this.
1) It takes two to reach a deal (spell that out in baby language), and therefore she does not know what form the Britain-EU27 deal will take.
2) She is the PM of Britain and will try to reach the best deal for Scotland and every other part of Britain. She welcomes the Scottish Government's input.
3) If there is evidence that a substantial proportion of people in Scotland are unhappy with the deal and would rather Scotland become independent than remain in Britain under the terms of the deal, then she would accept at that time that a case exists for a further referendum in Scotland to decide whether or not Scotland should remain in Britain and, if it leaves, whether or not it should apply to join the EU and bring itself under EU rules.
4) Only someone with poo for brains would form the opinion that the deal between Britain and EU27 will be bad for Scotland and grounds for indyref2 until they know a) what the deal is, and b) what the alternatives are.0 -
Qatar left the Commonwealth in 1971! More likely the Games end up in London or Melbourne.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, relocated to Qatar?
0 -
That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?surbiton said:
What would she [ May ] do if Sturgeon gives her a two-fingers salute ? Legally, doubtful, that is true. Practically, would England insist that the referendum did not happen ?SeanT said:
Serious Q: do you actually believe TMay will agree to a vote before Brexit is concluded in 2019?Theuniondivvie said:PB Brexityoonery 1.0: If Sturgeon calls a referendum she'll lose it.
PB Brexityoonery 2.0: Sturgeon is bluffing, she'll never call a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 2.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff.
PB Brexityoonery 3.0: May will never allow Sturgeon to have a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 3.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff because May will never allow her to have a referendum.
It'll be fascinating to watch the operating systems evolve (sic).0 -
Ah well - it's game over then. Anecdote rules!surbiton said:
I was in Scotland on Wednesday. It feels like a different country. It also feels very prosperous.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.SouthamObserver said:
Scotland and England are drifting apart.Cyan said:
Build a case for independence or for Scottish membership of the EU when rUK will be outside both the single market and the currency union?SouthamObserver said:That's why 2021 is the likeliest time for a referendum. It suits May because it gives her a clear hand for the Brexit negotiation. It suits Sturgeon because it gives her four more years to build a case. And it suits the EU because it means an independent Scotland can be fast-tracked in as a member, without any worries about breaching protocols or upsetting the Spanish.
At the moment, most of the SNP's voters probably can't focus on the fact that a state can only belong to the EU if it accepts EU rules. They're so busy trying to break from "parental" England that they don't realise the alternative is going to work for "boss" EU. There isn't going to be a "Nicola's deal" for a tinpot little country like Scotland.
She'd have to accept full freedom of movement. Bulgarians and Romanians who want to get to the bright lights of London or Manchester will therefore flock to Scotland and try to go south. And RUK won't accept them.
She'd also have to accept customs tariffs. RUK would be further away from the EU than say Turkey is at the moment. The border would become a hard external EU border.
This is the worst possible outcome for Scotland. Vote SNP if you want it. The SNP is - inshallah - likely to get slaughtered in indyref2.
There will come a time when people just aren't so stupid, when they realise that if A is in a single market and customs union with B, and C isn't, then A cannot be in that relationship with C.
How about a referendum on whether or not Scotland should apply to join the EU? If it's that important, ask people. Have three options on the ballot:
1) Scotland should stay in Britain
2) Scotland should become an independent country and apply for EU membership
3) Scotland should become an independent country and not apply for EU membership
People should get it through their heads that Scotland may have the right to leave the parental home but it has no automatic right to join the EU.
Just because you keep writing something doesn't make it true.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11242539/Scotland-and-England-How-different-are-they-really.html0 -
How about a newly independent scotland...Sandpit said:
Qatar left the Commonwealth in 1971! More likely the Games end up in London or Melbourne.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, relocated to Qatar?
0 -
Aww come on Sean. I love your posts, they brighten my day. Don't stop, how else could I enjoy your prose for free?SeanT said:
Well it clearly doesn't signify nothing. If, as you say, the Scots vote NO, then Sturgeon will resign, Sindy will be off the agenda for a generation, and I expect the SNP will split, and we might, in time, see a massive recovery in Scottish Labour - the space will have to be filled - altering the balance of power in the UK once more.Blue_rog said:Despite all the hysteria on here I truly believe that NOTHING will happen. The world will continue to turn, the Scots won't leave and Brexit will be negotiated. There will be a wailing and a gnashing of teeth but it's all sound and fury signifying nothing.
So even a choice for the status quo will profoundly change the country.
Ah bollox. Too much fucking politics. This has been continuous for about three years now!
I'm going to switch off and do some bloody work. For a few weeks. Or months. Or forever.0 -
Exactly where? It's like everywhere else in the UK except London I can show you rich bits where some people are doing well and poor bits...Surbiton said:
I was in Scotland on Wednesday. It feels like a different country. It also feels very prosperous.
Edinburgh and Glasgow are doing well if you look on the surface. Scratch underneath...0 -
Dunno, and I suspect Tessy may not know currently either. The trouble with the Brexit concluded line is that there's no guarantee it will be tied in a neat bow by March 2019. I think the very least Sturgeon would accept is a referendum guaranteed now for after March '19, but I may be completely wrong about that. Nicola could be going all in.SeanT said:
Serious Q: do you actually believe TMay will agree to a vote before Brexit is concluded in 2019?Theuniondivvie said:PB Brexityoonery 1.0: If Sturgeon calls a referendum she'll lose it.
PB Brexityoonery 2.0: Sturgeon is bluffing, she'll never call a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 2.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff.
PB Brexityoonery 3.0: May will never allow Sturgeon to have a referendum.
PB Brexityoonery 3.1: Sturgeon calling a referendum is a bluff because May will never allow her to have a referendum.
It'll be fascinating to watch the operating systems evolve (sic).
I foresee skirmishing for a while yet.0 -
Let her have the referendum on her terms and let's watch her lose. Hopefully the SNP will disband afterwards. Her UK vs EU referendum is not going be a winning proposition for Yes. The "Yes/Leavers" are not on board and haven't been since this has been the offer. There was a time when Sturgeon seemed to get it, but she has reverted back to type and it means she won't win.
Let's go.0 -
No deal is better than a bad deal.SouthamObserver said:
How?Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Have you been living in a vacuum for several months?0 -
-
Shouldn't it be 'Oh those Russians'PlatoSaid said:The Russians!!!
Court News
Russian whistle blower could have been murdered by a poison vegetable switched for sorrel in the soup he ate for lunch, a court heard.
Channeling my inner Village People.
0 -
Given that Scotland's debt-to-GDP ratio would be, like the UK's, around 80-90%, and it'd be running a 10% deficit with oil as it is, the consequences of joining the Euro would be the least of its worries: it'd be unlikely to meet the convergence criteria this side of 2040 - and after the Greek experience, the EU (and in particular, its German funders) will be far less keen on fiddling the books.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:Wow - you got me there, I expressed an opinion. It's never happened on PB before :-D
My opinion is based on the verifiable fact that Scotland fulfils more of the EU membership criteria than any of the other countries currently hoping to join the EU.
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en
To join the EU, Scotland would have to join the Euro and thereby still have their finances controlled by an (ever further away) capital.
Either the Ref will be based on Scotland being independent with its own currency, and therefore no fast-tracking to the EU.
Or talking about joining the Euro and throwing away all the benefits of independence will lose the vote for the SNP.0 -
Ahem, Boney M, not The Village People.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Shouldn't it be 'Oh those Russians'PlatoSaid said:The Russians!!!
Court News
Russian whistle blower could have been murdered by a poison vegetable switched for sorrel in the soup he ate for lunch, a court heard.
Channeling my inner Village People.0 -
Scotland would no doubt have to undertake to join the Euro as and when the time was right. Once inside the EU, Scotland would effectively make the decision as to when that would be.MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:Wow - you got me there, I expressed an opinion. It's never happened on PB before :-D
My opinion is based on the verifiable fact that Scotland fulfils more of the EU membership criteria than any of the other countries currently hoping to join the EU.
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en
To join the EU, Scotland would have to join the Euro and thereby still have their finances controlled by an (ever further away) capital.
Either the Ref will be based on Scotland being independent with its own currency, and therefore no fast-tracking to the EU.
Or talking about joining the Euro and throwing away all the benefits of independence will lose the vote for the SNP.
"transitional arrangements – sometimes certain rules are phased in gradually, to give the new member or existing members time to adapt".
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en
0 -
-
Richard is displaying the usual English attitude that no one else is important other than the English.malcolmg said:
Yes that woudl eb why they are taking in all the Eastern Europen countries that are way way smaller than Scotland , they will have no interest in 30%+ of EU fishing interests right enoughRichard_Nabavi said:FPT, but relevant to this thread:
I would extremely surprised if it doesn't. Joining the EEA and EFTA would require agreement from Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and from the EU27 (actually EU28 until the UK actually leaves!). There might be a mechanism whereby the EU could use QMV and force any dissenters amongst the EU27 to amend the EEA Treaty against their will, but that must surely be politically very unlikely even if were legally possible.surbiton said:Fine. Does that apply to the EEA as well ?
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. It's tiny, it's remote and its public finances as an independent state would be dire. Why would our EU friends go out of their way to give it special treatment? They've got bigger fish to fry.0 -
Mouthing platitudes is not demonstrating a willingness to walk away from negotiations.Mortimer said:
No deal is better than a bad deal.SouthamObserver said:
How?Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Have you been living in a vacuum for several months?
0 -
Mr. Pubgoer, Boney M*.0
-
I suspect it'll be like my plan to party with Christina Hendricks, Scarlett Johansson, Kimberly Walsh, and Nicole Kidman.williamglenn said:0 -
Cornwall needs to achieve independence before the lithium mining starts or else England will grab all of the wealth.Blue_rog said:0 -
-
Spain has a veto.surbiton said:
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. ?Richard_Nabavi said:FPT, but relevant to this thread:
I would extremely surprised if it doesn't. Joining the EEA and EFTA would require agreement from Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and from the EU27 (actually EU28 until the UK actually leaves!). There might be a mechanism whereby the EU could use QMV and force any dissenters amongst the EU27 to amend the EEA Treaty against their will, but that must surely be politically very unlikely even if were legally possible.surbiton said:Fine. Does that apply to the EEA as well ?
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. It's tiny, it's remote and its public finances as an independent state would be dire. Why would our EU friends go out of their way to give it special treatment? They've got bigger fish to fry.
It is psychologically and politically very important. It will show that part of a country that left wants to re-join. Spain will be told to lump it.
Germany has taxpayers who will not tolerate another Greece requiring bailouts.0 -
0
-
Eeyore sticks his head in the sand again.SouthamObserver said:
Mouthing platitudes is not demonstrating a willingness to walk away from negotiations.Mortimer said:
No deal is better than a bad deal.SouthamObserver said:
How?Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Have you been living in a vacuum for several months?
Just because you won't listen or see doesn't mean the demonstration hasn't been made.0 -
Would be very underhand!TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8413097434026311680 -
There's probably a clever campaign slogan involving Li-ars somewhere in this.SandyRentool said:
Cornwall needs to achieve independence before the lithium mining starts or else England will grab all of the wealth.Blue_rog said:
Happy Birthday!0 -
chortleTheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect it'll be like my plan to party with Christina Hendricks, Scarlett Johansson, Kimberly Walsh, and Nicole Kidman.williamglenn said:
so FF want to stand on a platform of adopting one of Europes largest economic and poilitcal problems. ?
how are they going to pay for it0 -
From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.0 -
*blush*TheScreamingEagles said:
Ahem, Boney M, not The Village People.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Shouldn't it be 'Oh those Russians'PlatoSaid said:The Russians!!!
Court News
Russian whistle blower could have been murdered by a poison vegetable switched for sorrel in the soup he ate for lunch, a court heard.
Channeling my inner Village People.
0 -
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.0
-
From the same logic that gave us Obama backing remain...Or was that buggering remain?TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8413097434026311680 -
Its what some of us have been saying for a while.......TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's in the article:Alanbrooke said:how are they going to pay for it
"a deal between the British and Irish governments that would see London continue to pay the block grant to Northern Ireland on a declining basis over a number of years." 0 -
IndyRef2 "not yet winnable" - Nicola Sturgeon.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think that is what we were expected to take away from today!0 -
So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.0 -
And any more than that wouldn't be legal would it?RobD said:
Would be very underhand!TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/8413097434026311680 -
So you mean doing exactly what she said? End of march. Not news.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
0 -
SouthamObserver said:
Scotland would no doubt have to undertake to join the Euro as and when the time was right. Once inside the EU, Scotland would effectively make the decision as to when that would be.
"transitional arrangements – sometimes certain rules are phased in gradually, to give the new member or existing members time to adapt".
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/conditions-membership_en I wouldn't fancy negotiating this for EU27 with iScotland given that sterling would be under the monetary control of a third country which would have no responsibility either to EU27 or to iScotland.
0 -
I did listen. The putative grand alliance with the Americans was blown out of the water within 24 hours; while the idea that the UK will inflict deliberate harm on itself in order to get the Europeans to do as we wish is one for the fairies, I am afraid.Mortimer said:
Eeyore sticks his head in the sand again.SouthamObserver said:
Mouthing platitudes is not demonstrating a willingness to walk away from negotiations.Mortimer said:
No deal is better than a bad deal.SouthamObserver said:
How?Mortimer said:
Demonstration of willingness to walk away is pretty basic. That is something she has done.FF43 said:
Any evidence for that suggestion? Everything I have seen so far suggests the opposite.Mortimer said:
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
...
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
First of all you wouldn't choose David Davies as your lead negotiator. Secondly Mrs May seems more interested in appeasing factions in her party than getting a good deal. Thirdly, she hasn't matched Team GB with the real negotiating talent that can be found on the EU side. Fourthly, she claims "No deal is better than a bad deal" when realistically there is no chance of a no deal. We can agree more or we can agree the minimum and if the minimum is her "no deal" option that would be the worst possible outcome And so on.
Have you been living in a vacuum for several months?
Just because you won't listen or see doesn't mean the demonstration hasn't been made.
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Pending the approval of the bill, of course!TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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Apparently 70% of people who say they are 'English' rather than 'British' would have voted 'Leave'... that's over 10m, so seems I was right all along @SouthamObserver, most Leavers see themselves as English not British, even when you include the Welsh, Scots and NI Leavers
Although to be fair even they would prefer the Scots to stay in the UK
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358038/How-calling-English-British-means-likely-wary-EU.html0 -
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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Thief!Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8412703202207989770 -
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.0 -
In the event of UDI, I would like to see westminster impose Direct Rule and revert to the pre-Devolution arrangements until common sense prevailed.RochdalePioneers said:
A refusal will be a gift to the yes campaign. Ignoring Scotland on Brexit. Ignoring Scotland on self-determination. Acting directly against the democratic will of the people.SeanT said:But HMG will simply refuse a vote before Brexit in 2019. It has to, otherwise it renders negotiations with the EU unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing, the EU would be negotiating with a member state that might easily cease to exist DURING the negotiations.
It's just a nonsense.
Even if May really wanted to allow an indyref2, she knows that she can't, in practicality (and Sturgeon knows this).
So it will have to be after Brexit in 2019. Sometime between 2019-2021 therefore seems likeliest.
And then what? The SNP hold the referendum anyway, if its a yes we get UDI. How would Maybe stop them?
"Unfeasibly complex, chaotic, confusing" - sounds like negotiations for hard brexit. When the diplomats who have to do the actual negotiation say 2 years isn't just impossible its insane, thats when you know its popcorn time.
If hard brexit sinks the union, and sinks the economy, its the death of the Conservative Party. I hope she knows what she's doing - thought conservatives were supposed to be conservative, not risk the house radicals...0 -
That would be Leave voting Wales right?tlg86 said:From the Guardian live blog:
Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has said that if Scotland votes for independence, Wales should have a vote on independence too.0 -
Ha! Great minds.TheScreamingEagles said:
Thief!Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8412703202207989770 -
ROFLwilliamglenn said:
It's in the article:Alanbrooke said:how are they going to pay for it
"a deal between the British and Irish governments that would see London continue to pay the block grant to Northern Ireland on a declining basis over a number of years."
even funnier
the south doesnt like Shinners, and isnt overly keen on the DUPers either but theyre going to hand the balance of power in the Dail to their mad relatives
on that basis I might move back, it can only be a hoot0 -
None. You break it you own it.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.0 -
Thanks for that insight.DanSmith said:
May is a dreadful PM.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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#NotNews ? Or #FakeNews ?FrancisUrquhart said:
So you mean doing exactly what she said? End of march. Not news.TheScreamingEagles said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May will not trigger Article 50 this week, or next, I understand. Never intended to. So March 27 still looks the best bet.
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Don't see why It wouldn't be legal: the EU's representatives can chat with who they want. It is an organisation with a distinct political personality of its own - which is one of the bones of contention.Mortimer said:
And any more than that wouldn't be legal would it?RobD said:
Would be very underhand!TheScreamingEagles said:I can't see this happening, or can I?
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/841309743402631168
Whether they'd be wise to is another matter.0 -
LOL!williamglenn said:
It's in the article:Alanbrooke said:how are they going to pay for it
"a deal between the British and Irish governments that would see London continue to pay the block grant to Northern Ireland on a declining basis over a number of years."
I can really see the British government going for that.0 -
It all follows from the crash. Trump as well.david_herdson said:
How much of what happened these last seven years is a direct or indirect consequence of the financial crash, Labour's overspending beforehand an the legitimisation of the belief that the lifestyle that people were consuming before then was one that they were entitled to expect?Monty said:So the Conservative party lead the country to the break up of the UK and a disastrous hard Brexit. And it's the Labour Party who can't be trusted with government?
If it wasn't so tragic it would be funny.
See the end the Planet of the Apes?
That's you that is.
You maniacs.
We should think ourselves lucky though because so far we haven't seen anything as disastrous as the last time there was a crash of this magnitude (1930's followed by WWII)0 -
time for Mrs Merkel to open her purse :-)Sean_F said:
LOL!williamglenn said:
It's in the article:Alanbrooke said:how are they going to pay for it
"a deal between the British and Irish governments that would see London continue to pay the block grant to Northern Ireland on a declining basis over a number of years."
I can really see the British government going for that.0 -
The referendum would be like the recent one in Catalonia. There would be a massive Yes vote but on a smaller turnout. Most potential No voters would see the referendum as illegitimate and won't turn out. It would be a stalemate. Nationalists would point to the massive margin in favour; the government would claim it was invalid. I don't expect a council level boycott although there may be legal issues to their involvement.Sean_F said:That's an interesting question. What if Stugeon calls her own referendum, without Parliamentary approval, and councils/returning officers in parts of the country that favour the Union refuse to have anything to do with it?
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