politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mega By-Election Week (Day Two: Take Two) : February 23rd 2017
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There's a plan to put quite a lot of them online/youtube.another_richard said:
I would have thought some politics dept would have a huge library of such videos - it would be good if they were all available in the public domain.AndyJS said:
And thanks to the London councillor who sent me the Mitcham & Morden video.another_richard said:
Thanks.AndyJS said:
You can watch the reaction on this video I uploaded:another_richard said:For the old timers among us can anyone remember the reaction when the Conservatives gained Mitcham in 1982 ?
For the really old timers among us can anyone remember the reaction when the Conservatives gained Brighouse in 1960 ?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpt2ywiTzY
And for all the other YouTube videos you've uploaded.
There's just a hold up on copyright and picture quality clean up.0 -
Tories have flown out on Betfair for Stoke. Not sure why.0
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Right I'm off to get a chinese before the delights of Faisal and company await.0
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With increased %age term majorities.Dixie said:
or win both seats.GIN1138 said:
"Hoping to edge" Stoke doesn't exactly sound brimming with confidence... Possible they could lose both seats?Casino_Royale said:0 -
Did Sunil get home or is he still stuck in Stoke?
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The regressive Left thought process appears to work as follows:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I can't really decide what he's doing here - seems like an exercise in letting idiots show themselves up- Paris Lees, the keyboard warrior explaining his rape/death threats as 'banter'.AndyJS said:Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
The students were particularly painful to watch.
1. The world, in general, is awful.
2. Our part of the world is the most awful, because we are responsible for oppressing the rest of humanity (all other nations and peoples can be excused any excess, because ultimately their behaviour can always be traced back to some intolerable provocation inflicted upon them by the West.)
3. This makes me (a) very guilty, (b) very, very angry, and therefore (c) extremely miserable.
4. Being guilty, angry and miserable also, however, makes me righteous, because I have accepted the essentially nightmarish nature of my own society and its urgent need to atone for its dreadful burden of crimes. All of the other people who aren't as guilty, angry and miserable as I am cannot, therefore, be righteous. They must be evil, stupid or both.
5. What these other people desire or find important is therefore an irrelevance to me, because their needs and opinions are at best frivolous and at worst cruel.
6. I, on the other hand, am righteous and therefore not merely entitled but positively obliged to bulldoze others into doing what I want. Firstly because they need to be beaten over the head with the fact of their own guilt until compelled to accept it, and secondly because, if I'm suffering, then everybody else should be bloody well suffering, too.
7. If I am not strong enough to impose what I want by force, I can at least try to make other people feel as guilty, angry and miserable as I do through the medium of noisy protest and propaganda.
For further information, Google "Trenton Oldfield"0 -
Laying Con Copeland/Lab Stoke double at 1.65 good value?
If they are both 1/3 its 1.770 -
@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.0
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Democracy is so 20th Century.Scott_P said:0 -
Betfair moving hard towards the Con win Copeland.
But then again Betfair has been badly wrong a few times in recent months.
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I imagined Corbyn himself saying that and literally laughed out loud. And I say that as someone who expects Labour to hold both these seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
How can he step down now, 21st Century Socialism is just starting to really take off....Scott_P said:
Just more expectations management - when they hold Stoke comfortably it will seem all the more remarkable.GIN1138 said:
"Hoping to edge" Stoke doesn't exactly sound brimming with confidence... Possible they could lose both seats?Casino_Royale said:0 -
my best mate is Clarets mad...and says it m much like you say...he loves the Championship much more than the Premiershipfoxinsoxuk said:
Relegation isn't that bad. The fear is worse than the reality. I know I have seen it twice from the PL and once from the Championship. The team starts winning games, the fanbase is slightly reduced but more fanatical, and it is possible to get tickets. Promotion does beat it mind you!tlg86 said:
If Leicester go down I don't see them coming straight back up. There is no room for sentiment in this game. I didn't see the game live, but that diamond he played at Southampton was a complete mess - so he has certainly contributed to some of the problems.SeanT said:
No, it's just WRONG. Morally wrong. Really and genuinely dismaying for the average non-partisan fan.tlg86 said:On Ranieri, I I think we have to respect the views of @foxinsoxuk - he sees them every week, we don't. I saw Leicester at the Emirates in Feb 15 and confidently predicted that they'd stay up (didn't bet on it, mind). Maybe it's a bit unfair on Ranieri, but clearly something isn't right and I think they've probably made the right decision.
UGH.
Give him the whole season, if you get relegated, so be it. Then rebuild. Part company on decent terms.
His achievement was so massive it deserved something special. Fuck Leicester. YUK.
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100-1 then it is just under a 1% chance.
11-1 then it is effectively about an 8.3% chance.
1/3 is a 75% chance.
1/2 is a 66.6% chance.
While the percentage in the second case is a bigger number difference the first case is a much more significant one. Increasing from 1% to 8.3% is an increase in probability of over 730% of its original probability.
Falling from a 75% to 66.6% chance is a fall of 8.4% which is a fall of 11.2% of its base probability.
Saying something is more than eight times as likely to occur as you'd previously thought is a much bigger swing. That is why numbers around 50% tend to bounce around more because the former is much more significant even with comparable numbers.0 -
Copeland: Labour above 4 now on Betfair0
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Have they improved the expectations game under Jezza? I remember they were always terrible at it under Ed and Gord.kle4 said:
I imagined Corbyn himself saying that and literally laughed out loud. And I say that as someone who expects Labour to hold both these seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
How can he step down now, 21st Century Socialism is just starting to really take off....Scott_P said:
Just more expectations management - when they hold Stoke comfortably it will seem all the more remarkable.GIN1138 said:
"Hoping to edge" Stoke doesn't exactly sound brimming with confidence... Possible they could lose both seats?Casino_Royale said:0 -
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There seem to be multiple evidence points that Copeland will be a Con Gain.
I have no idea about Stoke, though I expect Labour will win simply because the Tories moved on it far too late.0 -
Keep working on that empathyBlack_Rook said:
The regressive Left thought process appears to work as follows:AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I can't really decide what he's doing here - seems like an exercise in letting idiots show themselves up- Paris Lees, the keyboard warrior explaining his rape/death threats as 'banter'.AndyJS said:Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
The students were particularly painful to watch.
1. The world, in general, is awful.
2. Our part of the world is the most awful, because we are responsible for oppressing the rest of humanity (all other nations and peoples can be excused any excess, because ultimately their behaviour can always be traced back to some intolerable provocation inflicted upon them by the West.)
3. This makes me (a) very guilty, (b) very, very angry, and therefore (c) extremely miserable.
4. Being guilty, angry and miserable also, however, makes me righteous, because I have accepted the essentially nightmarish nature of my own society and its urgent need to atone for its dreadful burden of crimes. All of the other people who aren't as guilty, angry and miserable as I am cannot, therefore, be righteous. They must be evil, stupid or both.
5. What these other people desire or find important is therefore an irrelevance to me, because their needs and opinions are at best frivolous and at worst cruel.
6. I, on the other hand, am righteous and therefore not merely entitled but positively obliged to bulldoze others into doing what I want. Firstly because they need to be beaten over the head with the fact of their own guilt until compelled to accept it, and secondly because, if I'm suffering, then everybody else should be bloody well suffering, too.
7. If I am not strong enough to impose what I want by force, I can at least try to make other people feel as guilty, angry and miserable as I do through the medium of noisy protest and propaganda.
For further information, Google "Trenton Oldfield"
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Not giving them anything, but Labour have indicated its not as bad is it could be? Both statements cannot be true.Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
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as if a Somalian father will look at uni students protesting and think "hmm maybe I won't mutilate my daughter after all". Sorry but I don't think the two things can be compared.........Sean_F said:
To do so would be Islamophobic.AndyJS said:
Do they protest against FGM and forced marriages?Razedabode said:
Amazing just how illiberal some of these so called liberals are. Banning somberos and dressing as pochontas? Seems to me they'd ban anything.AndyJS said:Good to see Trevor Phillips confronting student snowflakes on Channel 4 who think it's offensive to wear Mexican headwear.
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Tories 42 in Stoke.. value?0
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What about the Kippers in Stoke though?Casino_Royale said:There seem to be multiple evidence points that Copeland will be a Con Gain.
I have no idea about Stoke, though I expect Labour will win simply because the Tories moved on it far too late.0 -
I'm off to bed. I leave my small money book (Copeland/Stoke):
Labour/Labour +35
Conservatives/Labour +16
Labour/UKIP -24
Tories/UKIP -44
It has I think about a +5 overall value !!
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Tories shortening in Copeland now 1.28 which is 2/7 in old money.
UKIP shortening in Stoke now 3.5 or 5/20 -
At the end of the Mitcham news report they get a newsflash of the Israelis Ambassador being shot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpt2ywiTzY
Wasn't that the incident which led to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon ?
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Guess he might be judging by facial expressions? Dunno.kle4 said:
Not giving them anything, but Labour have indicated its not as bad is it could be? Both statements cannot be true.Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
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The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.Dixie said:ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!0 -
Just a reminder at this on June 23rd, Leave were 13/1, which was a 7% implied probability of Leave winning.0
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Come on someone win...0
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Betfair now saying Nuttall more likely to win Stoke than Labour to hold Copeland.
Copeland, Lab: 4.8 / 5.1
Stoke, UKIP: 3.7 / 4.1
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1291312050 -
The Guardian's live blog notes that the Washington Post have sent someone to report on Stoke.0
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Corbyn WILL go if he loses Copeland, IMO.
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.0 -
So Labour not fourth then....Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Both sides incredibly cagey in Copeland. Labour seem to think it's not as bad as it could be. But nobody is giving us anything - it's close.
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Nigel and Boris had both thrown in the towel and Cameron has the champagne on ice...TheScreamingEagles said:Just a reminder at this on June 23rd, Leave were 13/1, which was a 7% implied probability of Leave winning.
And then came Newcastle/Sunderland...0 -
No that was Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.Dixie said:ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
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SO, Labour lose Copeland rather than UKIP win Stoke?AndyJS said:Betfair now saying Nuttall more likely to win Stoke than Labour to hold Copeland.
Copeland, Lab: 4.8 / 5.1
Stoke, UKIP: 3.7 / 4.1
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1291312050 -
A truly dire result for Labour, if correct.Casino_Royale said:There seem to be multiple evidence points that Copeland will be a Con Gain.
I have no idea about Stoke, though I expect Labour will win simply because the Tories moved on it far too late.0 -
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The right decision if you're a shareholder maybe, but it's a sad day when fans are thinking like that. Sacrifice your hero to mammon, on the off chance that you might finish a couple of places higher in the league this season? That's cold.foxinsoxuk said:
I am sad, but it is the right decision.
If I were a Leicester fan I'd've been happy to be relegated with Ranieri. The football would go on regardless.0 -
good point. As Mike says, ignore betting on the day of the electionTheScreamingEagles said:Just a reminder at this on June 23rd, Leave were 13/1, which was a 7% implied probability of Leave winning.
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And Trump's people said he needed "a miracle".GIN1138 said:
Nigel and Boris had both thrown in the towel and Cameron has the champagne on ice...TheScreamingEagles said:Just a reminder at this on June 23rd, Leave were 13/1, which was a 7% implied probability of Leave winning.
And then came Blackpool/Sunderland...
And then came Florida.....0 -
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?0 -
LOLMarqueeMark said:
The Tories winning Copeland would, in historical terms, be one hell of a result.Dixie said:ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
It just shouldn't happen. Surely, it signals forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!....The dead rising from the grave..... Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!0 -
Incidentally, read that Corbyn statement and imagine it as a resignation statement...would anything really seem that out of place...0
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Labour traded 1.2 in Stoke, the lowest yet0
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Casino_Royale said:
Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out? 0 -
So Tories strong favourites?TheScreamingEagles said:Copeland: Labour above 4 now on Betfair
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There is still two months of campaign so one of them could create clear separation. But I guess we will have to wait for the TV debate if they ever take place (there is currently a row about a debate limited to the 5 "big" candidates)HYUFD said:
Macron will likely have got a small bounce from Bayrou but longer term I doubt it makes much difference, it will be very close between Macron and Fillon as to who makes the runoffChris_from_Paris said:
The result is pretty consistent with the other polls with Le Pen clearly in front and a very close fight for second place. The Fillon camp will be pleased to have a poll showing him just in front , as IFOP and Opinion way show the reverse.HYUFD said:Harris France presidential poll
Round 1 Le Pen 25% Fillon 21% Macron 20% Hamon 14% Melenchon 13%
Round 2 Macron 60% Le Pen 40% Fillon 57% Le Pen 43%
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/02/Rapport-Harris-Intentions-vote-election-presidentielle-France-TV.pdf0 -
Now this is the boldest prediction of the night!Danny565 said:Corbyn WILL go if he loses Copeland, IMO.
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
I do think he is more vulnerable that it seems, despite easily winning the leadership contest last year. At some point if the national poll position is manifested elsewhere, the spell will break for too many people, it just is not possible to for people to ignore and many stil believed Labour might win in 2020, or that under Corbyn they could do no worse than under anyone else at least. Those people can be persuaded, even if die hards cannot.
What that breaking point could be I don't know, I don't think losing Copeland would be enough, but if destruction looks on the cards and no-one acts? That would be incredible. Corbyn himself would surely go of his own volition despite bullishness now - he served on in Labour for decades even when it went in directions he must have found very unpalatable, he would not risk seeing it destroyed, would he?
But since I think they'll win both tonight, I'm not sure when the next opportunity to test this all out might be.0 -
possible, but unlikely.brokenwheel said:
With increased %age term majorities.Dixie said:
or win both seats.GIN1138 said:
"Hoping to edge" Stoke doesn't exactly sound brimming with confidence... Possible they could lose both seats?Casino_Royale said:0 -
Stoke Sentinel liveblog says result expected between 2pm and 4pm.
I hope not!0 -
7,000 of them.GIN1138 said:Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?0 -
Just remember what happened to Remain on the night!Dixie said:
So Tories strong favourites?TheScreamingEagles said:Copeland: Labour above 4 now on Betfair
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https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834887360588484608
Winning candidate in Stoke could actually poll less than 6,000 votes in a tight three or four way contest.
Tristram Hunt's *majority* in 2015 was about 5,200.0 -
It needs to be even more dire, please.Sean_F said:
A truly dire result for Labour, if correct.Casino_Royale said:There seem to be multiple evidence points that Copeland will be a Con Gain.
I have no idea about Stoke, though I expect Labour will win simply because the Tories moved on it far too late.
I want my £500 profit on The Tories.0 -
Just catching up on the Trevor Phillips documentary. The students opposed to men dressing up as women for a laugh better not go to Headingley, Edgbaston or Trent Bridge on the Saturday of a test match!0
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There was a post below saying that some analysts at CCHQ think that the weather did not impact turnout.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/834887360588484608
Winning candidate in Stoke could actually poll less than 6,000 votes in a tight three or four way contest.
Tristram Hunt's *majority* in 2015 was about 5,200.0 -
Yep - Corbyn is going; though I doubt it will be immediately. His support was a coalition. That is now breaking.Danny565 said:Corbyn WILL go if he loses Copeland, IMO.
He only won re-election last summer on the basis that his electoral record up til then was decent (reasonable swings to Lab in all byelections, OK results in the local elections). Soft-left members don't want the party to be destroyed.
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Epping Chigwell Village Con hold Con 453 LDem 1430
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@iankatz1000: Interesting strategy: if Lab loses one of bylelections Corbyn team planning concerted attack on Blairites reports @nicholaswatt #newsnight0
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So if they all turnout then the Tories could win even if there are no voters switching to the Tories?Casino_Royale said:
7,000 of them.GIN1138 said:Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?0 -
Hmmmmmmm... Could the Tories postal votes win it from them after Doris blew Lab and Kippers away on the day?Casino_Royale said:
7,000 of them.GIN1138 said:Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?0 -
A0
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Surely the only path left. Put them to the sword.Scott_P said:@iankatz1000: Interesting strategy: if Lab loses one of bylelections Corbyn team planning concerted attack on Blairites reports @nicholaswatt #newsnight
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Doris? That was Corbynism sweeping the nation!GIN1138 said:
Hmmmmmmm... Could the Tories postal votes win it from them after Doris blew Lab and Kippers away?Casino_Royale said:
7,000 of them.GIN1138 said:Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?
Are there actually any Tories to turn out in Stoke?Casino_Royale said:Stoke seems to be absolutely a battle of turnout. I expect both the Labour/UKIP candidates and their campaigns put huge swathes of their potential voters off.
But, did the Tories all turn out?0 -
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NEW THREAD
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Is it socially acceptable to want Labour to lose in Stoke purely because Jack Dromey is their Campaign Manager?0
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If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?
Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.
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Probably only 15-18k of votes in Stoke.
You can see why Labour would be worried it's a three way marginal, but no-one else is suggesting anything other than a win.0 -
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Just reported by Whitehaven News:
"David Moore, leader of Copeland Conservatives, is reporting a high turnout in polling stations south of Beckermet, which he believes bodes well for the Tories "
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Just re-read it and can be seen as "Please don't leave the party just 'cos I'm going. Although might just be we carry on regardless...who knows with JC?DanSmith said:
It's a really odd statement. Maybe Copeland by itself will be the tipping point.Danny565 said:Incidentally, read that Corbyn statement and imagine it as a resignation statement...would anything really seem that out of place...
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They've run the NHS line in the last two elections and lost.another_richard said:If the Conservatives do gain Copeland will that have any effect of Labour's 'NHSNHSNHSNHSNHS' strategy ?
Perhaps they could change to a 'BHSBHSBHSBHSBHS' strategy of 'fairness'.
The BBC polling on the NHS a week or two ago implies that the public are almost in the same, highly sceptical mood that they have reached with welfare and 'refugees'.
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Some clever Cowley Tech-educated chap got 15/1, it is rumoured...TheScreamingEagles said:Just a reminder at this on June 23rd, Leave were 13/1, which was a 7% implied probability of Leave winning.
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Patriot Games on More 4 right nowCornishBlue said:
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I
Love
Harry0
