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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times

So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited February 2017
    So Labour hold on at the by election, hard left Leader isn't toppled, and Labour get shellacked at the general election?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    2nd like Labour
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT & OT: could this backfire? DYOR & YMMV
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    It's certainly intriguing.

    Vincent Hannah was also very good in the Regency period. There aren't many journalists with such long careers.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    If the LibDems are close in 4th then Labour lose.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited February 2017
    Ah the late, great Vincent Hanna, he also starred in the episode of Blackadder the Third when Baldrick won the rotten borough of Dunny-on-the-Wold.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,434
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder what a par score for Le Pen to retain her 5-2 odds would be ?

    28.5 % perhaps ?

    Doesn't that depend on who her opponent is?

    If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Macron who got 25%, then she'll drift.
    If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Melanchon who got 18%, then she'll come in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Eagles, it was Baldrick who won the seat.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it was Baldrick who won the seat.

    I know. I never make mistakes, that's unpossible.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    What a depressing spectacle the House of Lords is. Hundreds of political failures and non-entities making a mockery of the concept of nobility.

    Worst of all are the Liberal Democrat 'peers'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,596
    The fact there is even a question over Labour winning Stoke says all you need to know about the current state of the Labour Party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Whoops: Gambling Commission to investigate pie-eating footballer.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-4245100/Sutton-s-Wayne-Shaw-investigated-pie-eating-stunt.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Copeland looks more like Darlington to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,970
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ah the late, great Vincent Hanna, he also starred in the episode of Blackadder the Third when Baldrick won the rotten borough of Dunny-on-the-Wold.

    Now then, now then, who's talking about Rotten Boroughs? :smiley:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,434
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    Although the "reversals" Fact Check Fact Check doesn't mention how many cases a circuit had in a year. If the Ninth Circuit has twice as many cases as the Seventh Circuit (for example) then you would expect it to have more reversals.

    Without context, both the Fact Check, and the Fact Check Fact Check are meaningless. Fortunately, the Fact Check and the Fact Check Fact Check are explicit about their methodologies, so anyone well versed in statistics knows to ignore them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    I'm sorry but that 2nd example is utter bollocks.

    Almost like someone doesn't know diddly about the 9th circuit, or how the circuit courts/appellate courts operate.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    SouthamObserver said:

    Copeland looks more like Darlington to me.

    But Copeland will have little impact on UKIP - the Stoke result will whichever way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,596
    Sandpit said:

    Whoops: Gambling Commission to investigate pie-eating footballer.

    What's Joey Barton done this time ;-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    This is excellent news. If they are attacking the fact checkers... They must be worried about them and they must be having an influence.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RoyalBlue said:

    What a depressing spectacle the House of Lords is. Hundreds of political failures and non-entities making a mockery of the concept of nobility.

    Worst of all are the Liberal Democrat 'peers'.

    What an invigorating spectacle the House of Lords is - shining a bright light into the murky corners of Brexit to expose the pitfalls and traps before we walk blindly into them.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    http://www.historyforkids.net/greek-philosophy.html

    "Greek philosophers all started a new type of thinking. Rather than believing in myths and stories, they began searching for the truth of the world by using their rational thinking."

    Myths and stories are more fun though, eh, Plato?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    Although the "reversals" Fact Check Fact Check doesn't mention how many cases a circuit had in a year. If the Ninth Circuit has twice as many cases as the Seventh Circuit (for example) then you would expect it to have more reversals.

    Without context, both the Fact Check, and the Fact Check Fact Check are meaningless. Fortunately, the Fact Check and the Fact Check Fact Check are explicit about their methodologies, so anyone well versed in statistics knows to ignore them.
    Would you be shocked to learn that the 9th Circuit Court is the largest of the thirteen circuit courts?
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    re government borrowing, ONS are still revising 15-16 borrowing amounts...

    last month ONS said
    "In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £75.4 billion. However, the estimates for the financial year ending March 2016 may still be subject to further revision as elements of provisional data are replaced with finalised and audited data"

    this month they say
    In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £71.7 billion.

    to my mind, it makes worrying too much about short term trends in borrowing a fools errand....

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's certainly intriguing.

    Vincent Hannah was also very good in the Regency period. There aren't many journalists with such long careers.

    Alistair Cook not only had a career that long but regenerated to captain England.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    RoyalBlue said:

    What a depressing spectacle the House of Lords is. Hundreds of political failures and non-entities making a mockery of the concept of nobility.

    Worst of all are the Liberal Democrat 'peers'.

    Whatever happens with the Article 50 bill, I hope this whole spectacle reinvigorates the case for an elected upper house. The mediocrities can be put out to pasture and the better ones can seek a real democratic mandate.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    When you can get the single on Copeland at the same odds?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's certainly intriguing.

    Vincent Hannah was also very good in the Regency period. There aren't many journalists with such long careers.

    Is the Country Gentleman's Pig Fertiliser Gazette still publishing today?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    OMG

    Telegraph
    Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017
    It is nice to see Milo getting his comeuppance because he comes across to me as a nasty piece of work.

    I am curious about one thing however - the far right is not exactly tolerant of "alternative lifestyles" so I was wondering why Milo appears to be crossdressing in the BBC article below. Very fetching pearls, bracelets, earrings and what looks like a scoop-neck top under his jacket. Not that I mind what he wears, I just thought was unusual for someone well to the political right.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39037244

    image
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    PlatoSaid said:

    OMG

    Telegraph
    Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU

    It is comedy central at that election - or possibly amateur night
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's certainly intriguing.

    Vincent Hannah was also very good in the Regency period. There aren't many journalists with such long careers.

    Is the Country Gentleman's Pig Fertiliser Gazette still publishing today?
    Only in Dunny-on-the-wold ...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    When you can get the single on Copeland at the same odds?
    Not on betfair (3.05) - but perhaps the double of singles is even better.

    Any turnout markets ?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    llef said:

    re government borrowing, ONS are still revising 15-16 borrowing amounts...

    last month ONS said
    "In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £75.4 billion. However, the estimates for the financial year ending March 2016 may still be subject to further revision as elements of provisional data are replaced with finalised and audited data"

    this month they say
    In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £71.7 billion.

    to my mind, it makes worrying too much about short term trends in borrowing a fools errand....

    don't chase monthly figures
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    TGOHF said:

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    When you can get the single on Copeland at the same odds?
    Not on betfair (3.05) - but perhaps the double of singles is even better.

    Any turnout markets ?
    Shadsy has turnout markets under/over at 34.5 for Stoke

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/local-by-elections/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/223166439/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Anorak said:

    FPT & OT: could this backfire? DYOR & YMMV
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072

    It seems from a casual google that there is a paper called the News & Star in West Cumbria, but that it is not the same thing as the West Cumbria News & Star which is a Lab concoction. I don't usually do outrage, but I am prepared to make an exception in this case. Has anyone got a hard copy of this to see whether it expressly identifies itself as electioneering material?

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited February 2017
    Pong said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    http://www.historyforkids.net/greek-philosophy.html

    "Greek philosophers all started a new type of thinking. Rather than believing in myths and stories, they began searching for the truth of the world by using their rational thinking."
    It has its pitfalls. One philosopher (Aristotle I think) deduced by pure reason that women have less teeth than men. The idea of actually asking people to allow a tooth survey was considered vulgar and beneath the use of pure reason...

    It was a vital step on the road to science but it took another 1,500 years to do the equivalent of actually counting teeth and then revising the theory
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    Beverley_C said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    What a depressing spectacle the House of Lords is. Hundreds of political failures and non-entities making a mockery of the concept of nobility.

    Worst of all are the Liberal Democrat 'peers'.

    What an invigorating spectacle the House of Lords is - shining a bright light into the murky corners of Brexit to expose the pitfalls and traps before we walk blindly into them.
    I'm reminded of W.S. Gilbert's words:

    When Wellington thrashed Bonaparte
    As any child can tell
    The house of peers throughout the war
    Did nothing in particular
    And did it very well.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    TGOHF said:

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    When you can get the single on Copeland at the same odds?
    Not on betfair (3.05) - but perhaps the double of singles is even better.

    Any turnout markets ?
    3.5 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power still? Can enjoy Labour losing Stoke as well then!!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    MikeSmithson said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Copeland looks more like Darlington to me.

    But Copeland will have little impact on UKIP - the Stoke result will whichever way.
    I think the continuing exposé of Mr Nutall's past claims will be the factor that kills off UKIP in Stoke.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    edited February 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Anorak said:

    FPT & OT: could this backfire? DYOR & YMMV
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072

    It seems from a casual google that there is a paper called the News & Star in West Cumbria, but that it is not the same thing as the West Cumbria News & Star which is a Lab concoction. I don't usually do outrage, but I am prepared to make an exception in this case. Has anyone got a hard copy of this to see whether it expressly identifies itself as electioneering material?
    It was Tweeted by the official Labour Copeland account last night. Could be an interesting test case for electronic election communications, as clearly these are becoming much more prevalent.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    I'm reminded of W.S. Gilbert's words:

    When Wellington thrashed Bonaparte
    As any child can tell
    The house of peers throughout the war
    Did nothing in particular
    And did it very well.

    :D

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mrs C, Aristotle was Alexander's private tutor.

    Killed when an eagle dropped a tortoise from altitude, which then struck him on the head.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pong said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    When you can get the single on Copeland at the same odds?
    Not on betfair (3.05) - but perhaps the double of singles is even better.

    Any turnout markets ?
    Shadsy has turnout markets under/over at 34.5 for Stoke

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/local-by-elections/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/223166439/
    Under, surely?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Anorak said:

    FPT & OT: could this backfire? DYOR & YMMV
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072

    It seems from a casual google that there is a paper called the News & Star in West Cumbria, but that it is not the same thing as the West Cumbria News & Star which is a Lab concoction. I don't usually do outrage, but I am prepared to make an exception in this case. Has anyone got a hard copy of this to see whether it expressly identifies itself as electioneering material?
    It was Tweeted by the official Labour Copeland account last night. Could be an interesting test case for electronic election communications, as clearly these are becoming much more prevalent.
    They will probably claim they were hacked
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Looks like a bad teen magazine.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/834028165349699584
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Meanwhile, in Stoke Labour are now arguing about whether it's right or not to use an England flag on their leaflets. It's not just Lady Nugee.
    https://order-order.com/2017/02/21/labour-arguing-about-using-england-flag-on-leaflets/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    **Trigger warning***

    That picture looks like something out of a Cougar movie. (If you don't know what a 'Cougar' is, don't google it)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Nice to see Theresa May visiting the local sixth form colleges in Stoke.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    PlatoSaid said:

    OMG

    Telegraph
    Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU

    The Labour candidate in Stoke - "a massive pile of shit". The House of Commons needs him like it needs another great big unneeded thing. Good people of Stoke, take a stand. Don't let this idiot board the gravy train. You're better than this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,092
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like a bad teen magazine.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/834028165349699584

    If anything that's admirable. The message could be seen as: we voted one way. But the people have now decided, and we're getting on with delivering that decision (*)

    (*) Or whatever the heck it was they voted for.

    Edit: it also indicates that the Conservatives think that May is a positive, not a negative.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,596
    edited February 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    **Trigger warning***

    That picture looks like something out of a Cougar movie. (If you don't know what a 'Cougar' is, don't google it)

    Did the other famous Mrs T May star in any of those movies?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    edited February 2017
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Anorak said:

    FPT & OT: could this backfire? DYOR & YMMV
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072

    It seems from a casual google that there is a paper called the News & Star in West Cumbria, but that it is not the same thing as the West Cumbria News & Star which is a Lab concoction. I don't usually do outrage, but I am prepared to make an exception in this case. Has anyone got a hard copy of this to see whether it expressly identifies itself as electioneering material?
    It was Tweeted by the official Labour Copeland account last night. Could be an interesting test case for electronic election communications, as clearly these are becoming much more prevalent.
    They will probably claim they were hacked
    There's plenty more in a similar vain, although not quite saying that Tories eat babies.
    There was also the Whitehaven News front page advert the other day.
    https://twitter.com/LabourCopeland/status/833663806765203456
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, in Stoke Labour are now arguing about whether it's right or not to use an England flag on their leaflets. It's not just Lady Nugee.
    https://order-order.com/2017/02/21/labour-arguing-about-using-england-flag-on-leaflets/

    This is insane debate to Mr Average - but when you're ashamed of your own national flag, it's all lost anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,625
    Sandpit said:

    Whoops: Gambling Commission to investigate pie-eating footballer.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-4245100/Sutton-s-Wayne-Shaw-investigated-pie-eating-stunt.html

    Surprised if they paid out a five figure sum

    The ref didn't book their bloke who kicked Sanchez while he he was on the floor, then pushed him over when he got up. Normal rules didn't apply on the pitch, so why apply them off?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,625
    TGOHF said:

    Labour double @ 3.55 on Betfair is looking great value.

    ??? They're almost that price just to win Copeland
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Beverley_C said:

    Pong said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mollie
    4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0

    http://www.historyforkids.net/greek-philosophy.html

    "Greek philosophers all started a new type of thinking. Rather than believing in myths and stories, they began searching for the truth of the world by using their rational thinking."
    It has its pitfalls. One philosopher (Aristotle I think) deduced by pure reason that women have less teeth than men. The idea of actually asking people to allow a tooth survey was considered vulgar and beneath the use of pure reason...

    It was a vital step on the road to science but it took another 1,500 years to do the equivalent of actually counting teeth and then revising the theory
    Bev - as an aside - why is your avatar a pair of flip flops on an upside down Ivory Coast flag ?

    #confused.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    OMG

    Telegraph
    Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU

    The Labour candidate in Stoke - "a massive pile of shit". The House of Commons needs him like it needs another great big unneeded thing. Good people of Stoke, take a stand. Don't let this idiot board the gravy train. You're better than this.
    He's just awful. I can't think of a redeeming thing to make up for his stream of potty mouthed views. They weren't even bad jokes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    OMG

    Telegraph
    Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU

    The Labour candidate in Stoke - "a massive pile of shit". The House of Commons needs him like it needs another great big unneeded thing. Good people of Stoke, take a stand. Don't let this idiot board the gravy train. You're better than this.
    He's just awful. I can't think of a redeeming thing to make up for his stream of potty mouthed views. They weren't even bad jokes.
    Labour testing the "pin a red rosette on a donkey" hypothesis to the limit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    edited February 2017
    Labour's campaign looks a good one to me. A relentlessly focussed Tories eat babies on the NHS hammering...

    None of anyone's guff is regulated by the ASA, so whether its depicting Salmond as a thief, depicting Howard in a errm 'unsavoury light' or big warnings/announcements on the NHS on the sides of buses quite frankly pretty much anything goes.
    Well there is a line. One which Mr Woolas crossed in Oldham - but Labour held the seat in the subsequent by-election anyway; so not really much of a disincentive to the party machines there.

    Labour haven't carved anything onto a tombstone in either Copeland or Stoke yet - now carving out in stone what you're going to do. That really is an error.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP are still 5/2 with Betfair Exchange in Stoke.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mrs C, Aristotle was Alexander's private tutor.

    Killed when an eagle dropped a tortoise from altitude, which then struck him on the head.

    Precision munitions greek style?

    Some of the greek philosophers were very, very good and even got approximate distances to the moon and sun. Their numbers were very wrong (by a factor of 20 or so) but heading into the right ballpark. That means that they had an idea that the moon and the sun were very, very large.

    They were in a minority of philosophers. I often wonder what would have happened if their arguments and views had been more widely accepted.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,625
    edited February 2017
    If ukip come 3rd or 4th in a working class town where 70% of the voters wanted to leave the EU, with their leader as the candidate, it would be fair to say it is a disaster for them.

    I just can't see it happening. The PB consensus reminds me too much of the euros, Clacton, Rochester and Brexit. My instinct/the obvious said they'd all go my way, and I was a lone voice in the dark.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's campaign looks a good one to me. A relentlessly focussed Tories eat babies on the NHS hammering...

    None of anyone's guff is regulated by the ASA, so whether its depicting Salmond as a thief, depicting Howard in a errm 'unsavoury light' or big warnings/announcements on the NHS on the sides of buses quite frankly pretty much anything goes.
    Well there is a line. One which Mr Woolas crossed in Oldham - but Labour held the seat in the subsequent by-election anyway; so not really much of a disincentive to the party machines there.

    Labour haven't carved anything onto a tombstone in either Copeland or Stoke yet - now carving out in stone what you're going to do. That really is an error.

    I think the trick is you can slag off the other parties, but you can't slag off the other candidates.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    My favourite parody account

    Sean Spicier
    Can't wait to meet the first to apply for disability because of post election stress disorder.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    isam said:

    If ukip come 3rd or 4th in a working class town where 70% of the voters wanted to leave the EU, with their leader as the candidate, it would be fair to say it is a disaster for them.

    I just can't see it happening. The PB consensus reminds me too much of the euros, Clacton, Rochester and Brexit. My instinct/the obvious said they'd all go my way, and I was a lone voice in the dark.

    2nd with a 2 pt swing Lab - UKIP. It'd please noone, and everyone from a prediction point of view.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    If ukip come 3rd or 4th in a working class town where 70% of the voters wanted to leave the EU, with their leader as the candidate, it would be fair to say it is a disaster for them.

    I just can't see it happening. The PB consensus reminds me too much of the euros, Clacton, Rochester and Brexit. My instinct/the obvious said they'd all go my way, and I was a lone voice in the dark.

    Weren't you also a lone voice in the dark on Thurrock, and on Hornchurch and Upminster? And on Rochester at the GE?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Isam, now we're post-referendum, things may have changed.

    Mrs C, aye, Anaxagoras[sp] was right about the sun and moon being hot and great rocks rather than gods.

    As you say, lots of them had mad ideas. However, the world would be a better place if we still had religion for ritual and philosophy for morality, rather than wrapping morality up in religion.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    edited February 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like a bad teen magazine.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/834028165349699584

    If anything that's admirable. The message could be seen as: we voted one way. But the people have now decided, and we're getting on with delivering that decision (*)

    (*) Or whatever the heck it was they voted for.

    Edit: it also indicates that the Conservatives think that May is a positive, not a negative.
    When did Labour candidates last have a leader they were proud to stick on their election literature - Blair 2001?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,625
    edited February 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    isam said:

    If ukip come 3rd or 4th in a working class town where 70% of the voters wanted to leave the EU, with their leader as the candidate, it would be fair to say it is a disaster for them.

    I just can't see it happening. The PB consensus reminds me too much of the euros, Clacton, Rochester and Brexit. My instinct/the obvious said they'd all go my way, and I was a lone voice in the dark.

    Weren't you also a lone voice in the dark on Thurrock, and on Hornchurch and Upminster?
    Thurrock yes, 16/1 into 4/6 and lost by 900 votes.

    Apologies

    Not Hornchurch, no. I was a teller in Dagenham and that ward was ukip friendly so I backed 9/1 but they were 2nd.

    But the GE was a different kettle of fish to one off events. There were a lot more eurosceptics in the country than that resulted implied
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TGOHF said:



    Bev - as an aside - why is your avatar a pair of flip flops on an upside down Ivory Coast flag ?

    #confused.

    I like it that way :)

    My avatar has always been a pair of heels because I like shoes. The flag is the Irish Tricolour because, thanks to Brexit and the fact that I travel around Europe a fair bit, I am using my dual nationality to apply for my Irish passport.

    It has the advantage that I no longer care about the outcome of Brexit and my kids are delighted that they can still travel and work in Europe with no restriction as they get Irish citizenship too. Mr C is english but as the spouse of an EU national can travel around the EU without restriction.

    Assuming of course that the EU does not implode. I think I have covered just about every outcome other than the zombie apocalypse
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/The-NHS-What-Copeland-MP-election-candidates-say-e80e93dd-c029-4e50-950d-5232c10fc7be-ds
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    For anyone who wonders why George Takei hates Trump

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0yymzI6BvU
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Isam, now we're post-referendum, things may have changed.

    Mrs C, aye, Anaxagoras[sp] was right about the sun and moon being hot and great rocks rather than gods.

    As you say, lots of them had mad ideas. However, the world would be a better place if we still had religion for ritual and philosophy for morality, rather than wrapping morality up in religion.

    We are almost in agreement Mr Dancer. My Ulster upbringing has left me with the view that fervent or evangelical religious belief should be a certifiable mental illness. When I begin to doubt this I simply watch the evening news for 10 minutes...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Fascinating thread OGH, TY. – Just a minor point, the Foot/Corbyn comparison I get, however if the SDP’s ‘momentum at a critical time’ equates with UKIP, then no. UKIP is not a fledgling party, it has merely come to its natural ending having achieved its aim. The party will limp on, but without Nuttall imo.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    edited February 2017
    Beverley_C said:

    TGOHF said:



    Bev - as an aside - why is your avatar a pair of flip flops on an upside down Ivory Coast flag ?

    #confused.

    I like it that way :)

    My avatar has always been a pair of heels because I like shoes. The flag is the Irish Tricolour because, thanks to Brexit and the fact that I travel around Europe a fair bit, I am using my dual nationality to apply for my Irish passport.

    It has the advantage that I no longer care about the outcome of Brexit and my kids are delighted that they can still travel and work in Europe with no restriction as they get Irish citizenship too. Mr C is english but as the spouse of an EU national can travel around the EU without restriction.

    Assuming of course that the EU does not implode. I think I have covered just about every outcome other than the zombie apocalypse
    That is exactly my position though I and my children have had Irish nationality for years. I did not know that my husband can travel round the EU without restriction as the spouse of an EU national. Is that only when he travels with the EU citizen?

    Oh and I LOVE shoes too..... :)

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mrs C, it's always interesting to compare the science and religious news.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    And Trump wins again

    AP
    "COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) -- Swedish police on Tuesday were investigating a riot that broke out overnight in a predominantly immigrant suburb in Stockholm after officers arrested a suspect on drug charges.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWEDEN_RIOTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-02-21-04-33-36
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Goupillon said:

    Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/The-NHS-What-Copeland-MP-election-candidates-say-e80e93dd-c029-4e50-950d-5232c10fc7be-ds

    I would like to congratulate @DavidHerdson for an excellent article on the previous thread. I know the area around Millom very well indeed. It is very remote and getting anywhere is a real difficulty, particularly in bad weather. So I can see the worries that those reliant on maternity services will have. Minutes can cost lives.

    The real issue is how to provide services to often relatively small communities in remote geographical areas. No easy answer to that question.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:


    That is exactly my position though I and my children have had Irish nationality for years. I did not know that my husband can travel round the EU without restriction as the spouse of an EU national. Is that only when he travels with the EU citizen?

    The page to see for examples is http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/travel/entry-exit/non-eu-family/index_en.htm which has lots of scenarios, for example
    The EU said:

    It is always best for your non-EU family members to be well informed in advance and have all the necessary documents before starting their journey.

    However, if they arrive at the border without an entry visa, the border authorities should give them the opportunity to prove by other means that they are your family members. If they manage to prove it, they should be issued with an entry visa on the spot.

    Cyclefree said:


    Oh and I LOVE shoes too..... :)

    :)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    FWIW my final predictions are

    Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4
    Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    MarkSenior said:

    FWIW my final predictions are

    Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4
    Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8

    MarkSenior, our usual knockabout banter aside for a few minutes, decent implied odds on LD for second place on the SPIN index if you think it is possible. DYOR tho....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Beverley_C said:

    Cyclefree said:


    That is exactly my position though I and my children have had Irish nationality for years. I did not know that my husband can travel round the EU without restriction as the spouse of an EU national. Is that only when he travels with the EU citizen?

    The page to see for examples is http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/travel/entry-exit/non-eu-family/index_en.htm which has lots of scenarios, for example
    The EU said:

    It is always best for your non-EU family members to be well informed in advance and have all the necessary documents before starting their journey.

    However, if they arrive at the border without an entry visa, the border authorities should give them the opportunity to prove by other means that they are your family members. If they manage to prove it, they should be issued with an entry visa on the spot.

    Cyclefree said:


    Oh and I LOVE shoes too..... :)

    :)
    Thank you.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mortimer said:

    MarkSenior said:

    FWIW my final predictions are

    Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4
    Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8

    MarkSenior, our usual knockabout banter aside for a few minutes, decent implied odds on LD for second place on the SPIN index if you think it is possible. DYOR tho....
    Sadly i have no SPIN account
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Labour 44% +2%
    Conservatives 35% -1%
    UKIP 11% -5%
    Lib Dems 6% +2%


    Stoke on Trent
    Labour 44% +5%
    UKIP 22% -1%
    Conservatives 12% -11%
    Lib Dems 11% +7%


    I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    My predictions: I haven't got a clue. However, I've bet on Labour in both seats, with a near zero-cost saver on the Conservatives in Stoke. My reasoning for backing Labour has been the simple one that governments don't win by-elections against the main opposition party, and Mr Nuttall.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Danny565 said:

    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Labour 44% +2%
    Conservatives 35% -1%
    UKIP 11% -5%
    Lib Dems 6% +2%


    Stoke on Trent
    Labour 44% +5%
    UKIP 22% -1%
    Conservatives 12% -11%
    Lib Dems 11% +7%


    I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.

    Bold on Labour Holds there Danny.

    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Conservatives - 41%
    Labour - 39%
    Lib Dems - 8%
    Ukip - 7%


    Stoke
    UKIP - 26%
    Conservatives 23%
    Labour - 22%
    Lib Dems - 21%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/834043412382904323
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    My predictions: I haven't got a clue. However, I've bet on Labour in both seats, with a near zero-cost saver on the Conservatives in Stoke. My reasoning for backing Labour has been the simple one that governments don't win by-elections against the main opposition party, and Mr Nuttall.

    My reasoning for backing Labour has been the simple one that governments RARELY win by-elections against the main opposition party, and Mr Nuttall

    there... fixed it for you
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SquareRoot said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    My predictions: I haven't got a clue. However, I've bet on Labour in both seats, with a near zero-cost saver on the Conservatives in Stoke. My reasoning for backing Labour has been the simple one that governments don't win by-elections against the main opposition party, and Mr Nuttall.

    My reasoning for backing Labour has been the simple one that governments RARELY win by-elections against the main opposition party, and Mr Nuttall

    there... fixed it for you
    Thank you!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Go Girl

    Reuters
    BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    FPT
    Theakes said :
    'There was Bromsgrove in 1971 where it nearly happened, a Labour majority in 1970 of over 10, 000 cut to under 2,000 '

    I am afraid you have got that totally wrong. The May 1971 by election at Bromsgrove saw a Labour gain - a Tory majority of 10,000 became a Labour majority of nearly 2,000
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited February 2017
    Danny565 said:

    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Labour 44% +2%
    Conservatives 35% -1%
    UKIP 11% -5%
    Lib Dems 6% +2%


    Stoke on Trent
    Labour 44% +5%
    UKIP 22% -1%
    Conservatives 12% -11%
    Lib Dems 11% +7%


    I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.

    We all take that risk when we dare to make such predictions, and I start out with the expectation that they will be hopelessly wide of the mark. Thus disappointment is minimised.

    I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Labour 44% +2%
    Conservatives 35% -1%
    UKIP 11% -5%
    Lib Dems 6% +2%


    Stoke on Trent
    Labour 44% +5%
    UKIP 22% -1%
    Conservatives 12% -11%
    Lib Dems 11% +7%


    I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.

    Bold on Labour Holds there Danny.
    :D

    Of course, even the 1.5% swing to Labour in my prediction would be very poor for an Opposition in a byelection (Miliband was usually racking up double-digit swings at this point).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited February 2017
    The President of Iceland is a top top bloke.

    President Of Iceland Announces That He Wants To Ban Pineapple On Pizza

    https://tinyurl.com/hog9mr4
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Stoke :

    Labour 41%
    Tories 19%
    UKIP 18%
    Lib Dem 17%

    Copeland:
    Labour 39%
    Tories 36%
    Lib Dems 11%
    UKIP 9%


  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Black_Rook said:

    Danny565 said:

    My predictions:

    Copeland
    Labour 44% +2%
    Conservatives 35% -1%
    UKIP 11% -5%
    Lib Dems 6% +2%


    Stoke on Trent
    Labour 44% +5%
    UKIP 22% -1%
    Conservatives 12% -11%
    Lib Dems 11% +7%


    I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.

    We all take that risk when we dare to make such predictions, and I start out with the expectation that they will be hopelessly wide of the mark. Thus disappointment is minimised.

    I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
    White Knight to the rescue?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    Goupillon said:

    Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/The-NHS-What-Copeland-MP-election-candidates-say-e80e93dd-c029-4e50-950d-5232c10fc7be-ds

    Really interesting exercise.
    I thought the Conservative answer was the strongest, followed by the Lib Dem. I thought that the Labour response was notably weak, given their campaign focus on it, and the candidate's experience.

    I think we are all expecting Copeland to be close between Con and Lab with others way behind - but Stoke could be almost any result. UKIP seem to be going backwards but other than that it'll probably be a historic low number of votes needed to win.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Paul Joseph Watson has donated £2k to this journalist to report from Sweden - he's got 90k twitter following

    Tim Pool
    @CraigS Id like to think its because I have high profile left and right wing friends, so whatever I find will be seen as undeniable proof
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