Reuters BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Not one willing to support the downgrading says it all.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
Reuters BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
AP "COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) -- Swedish police on Tuesday were investigating a riot that broke out overnight in a predominantly immigrant suburb in Stockholm after officers arrested a suspect on drug charges.
This seems to be a case of Trump predicting the future? Of course he did actually say 'last night' when he made his Sweden statement and not that there will be some event sometime in the near future in Sweden. Something we can all predict.
Are people really so gullible? It appears so when obvious lies that aren't even necessary (size of crowd, biggest electoral college win, etc) are just water of a ducks back to many.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.
We all take that risk when we dare to make such predictions, and I start out with the expectation that they will be hopelessly wide of the mark. Thus disappointment is minimised.
I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
White Knight to the rescue?
Tories look to sacrifice two pawns for sake of position. Their queen ought still to deliver checkmate in the end.
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Really interesting exercise. I thought the Conservative answer was the strongest, followed by the Lib Dem. I thought that the Labour response was notably weak, given their campaign focus on it, and the candidate's experience. ....
IMO all the main candidates answered pretty well, including the Kipper. Gillian Troughton (Labour) was predictably too partisan. Trudy Harrison (Conservative) was good but a bit waffly. Rebecca Hanson (Liberal Democrat) was doing very well until she followed the very reasonable-sounding "I have produced risk assessments to help change the minds of the key people who will be making decisions in Cumbria" with the bonkers-sounding "I’ve exposed the madness and inconsistency of the supposed experts who consider these changes to be safe."
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Not one willing to support the downgrading says it all.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
Can the staff at a hospital like Whitehaven be offered more pay than for other hospitals? I didn't think they could, nation pay scales and all that. If I am correct in that then their is no use of the market that would make sense - giving everyone in the NHS a pay rise would not attract more people to the problem hospitals.
NASA will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, Feb. 22, to present new findings on planets that orbit stars other than our sun, known as exoplanets. The event will air live on NASA Television and the agency's website.
Details of these findings are embargoed by the journal Nature until 1 p.m.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.
We all take that risk when we dare to make such predictions, and I start out with the expectation that they will be hopelessly wide of the mark. Thus disappointment is minimised.
I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
White Knight to the rescue?
Tories look to sacrifice two pawns for sake of position. Their queen ought still to deliver checkmate in the end.
Copeland: Labour 39% Tories 36% Lib Dems 11% UKIP 9%
I concur. That sounds about right to me.
In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it. Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
They don't have anything against allowing NHS trusts to pay according to local conditions. Unfortunately, the doctors' and nurses' trades unions go berserk at the very idea.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
Copeland: Labour 39% Tories 36% Lib Dems 11% UKIP 9%
I concur. That sounds about right to me.
In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it. Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.
Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
The betting market in Stoke Central, as @isam has repeatedly noted, has proved exceptionally volatile. All four of the main contenders have their advocates and both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have been traded in single figures and three figures at different times.
I'm still kind of expecting the order to be Labour, UKIP, Conservatives, Lib Dems (and Labour having a clear margin of victory). But it's very murky and I can imagine that being quite wrong in a few different ways.
Reuters BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
There was an interesting piece hidden away on BBC website yesterday which bust their own conspiracy theory about the surprise in unemployment numbers / rise in self employment. The conspiracy has been with the rise of "gig" type jobs and alike has been behind the large rise in self employment and thus was overwhelmingly just a load of piss poor paid jobs and loads of people being "under-employed".
The research by lefty Resolution foundation actually found analysis of the self employment numbers shows that isn't true and that the majority of those new self employed "jobs" are very well paid.
I would hazard a guess that lots of professionals has decided (or pushed by a change in situation) that they can do what they do as an individual and not via a bigger company, now with the interwebs etc.
The betting market in Stoke Central, as @isam has repeatedly noted, has proved exceptionally volatile. All four of the main contenders have their advocates and both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have been traded in single figures and three figures at different times.
I'm still kind of expecting the order to be Labour, UKIP, Conservatives, Lib Dems (and Labour having a clear margin of victory). But it's very murky and I can imagine that being quite wrong in a few different ways.
I put a small bet on Labour but the odds aren't terribly attractive (1/2). Copeland is definitely the value bet.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
There was an interesting piece hidden away on BBC website yesterday which bust their own conspiracy theory about the surprise in unemployment numbers / rise in self employment. The conspiracy has been with the rise of "gig" type jobs and alike has been behind the large rise in self employment and thus was overwhelmingly just a load of piss poor paid jobs and loads of people being "under-employed".
The research by lefty Resolution foundation actually found analysis of the self employment numbers shows that isn't true and that the majority of those new self employed "jobs" are very well paid.
I would hazard a guess that lots of professionals has decided (or pushed by a change in situation) that they can do what they do as an individual and not via a bigger company, now with the interwebs etc.
Yes, I saw that piece.
The majority are consultancies and professional services. Many were 40+% tax bracket.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
There was an interesting piece hidden away on BBC website yesterday which bust their own conspiracy theory about the surprise in unemployment numbers / rise in self employment. The conspiracy has been with the rise of "gig" type jobs and alike has been behind the large rise in self employment and thus was overwhelmingly just a load of piss poor paid jobs and loads of people being "under-employed".
The research by lefty Resolution foundation actually found analysis of the self employment numbers shows that isn't true and that the majority of those new self employed "jobs" are very well paid.
I would hazard a guess that lots of professionals has decided (or pushed by a change in situation) that they can do what they do as an individual and not via a bigger company, now with the interwebs etc.
Yes, I saw that piece.
The majority are consultancies and professional services. Many were 40+% tax bracket.
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Not one willing to support the downgrading says it all.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
Given the clinical benefits of having a smaller number of more specialist centres, could it be that part of the solution might be the provision of an extra air ambulance in more rural areas? Whitehaven to Carlisle or Lancaster would only be 15 minutes in a helicopter, and there's no shortage of places to land in such a rural area.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
They don't have anything against allowing NHS trusts to pay according to local conditions. Unfortunately, the doctors' and nurses' trades unions go berserk at the very idea.
There are a number of simple ways to do this within existing rules.
1) start people at higher points on the scale. 2) generous allowances in both money and time to enhance skills in bigger units. 3) relocation allowances 4) Putting more money into CEA award pots. 5) writing rotas that allow decent time off for family duties such as annualised PA's
Of course Brexit will benefit the workers by reducing the numbers of migrants undercutting natives wages, pushing up wage rates. I am told that is the whole point.
At moments like this, I am glad I work from my home office most of the time. Seeing that blow up on my 34" monitor is one thing, seeing it blow up a 34" monitor in the middle of an open plan office would have been quite another.
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Not one willing to support the downgrading says it all.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
Given the clinical benefits of having a smaller number of more specialist centres, could it be that part of the solution might be the provision of an extra air ambulance in more rural areas? Whitehaven to Carlisle or Lancaster would only be 15 minutes in a helicopter, and there's no shortage of places to land in such a rural area.
Further on sustaining consumer appetite for spending from the BBC budget-at-a-glance summary from last March:
"The threshold at which people pay 40% income tax will rise from £42,385 now to £45,000 in April 2017. Will only apply to Scotland if adopted by Scottish government"
At moments like this, I am glad I work from my home office most of the time. Seeing that blow up on my 34" monitor is one thing, seeing it blow up a 34" monitor in the middle of an open plan office would have been quite another.
Copeland: Labour 39% Tories 36% Lib Dems 11% UKIP 9%
I concur. That sounds about right to me.
In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it. Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.
Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.
Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?
Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
It's a bizarre world. I stood next to John Bercow for an hour last night at the Footie and today I stood next to Jamie Rednapp and Freddie Flintoff for an hour at a funeral.
Reuters BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
Turnout at the Darlington by election in March 1983 was 82% - higher than at the 1979 & 1983 General Elections! Why will turnout be so much lower at both of this week's by elections?
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
Ukip set for another "setback" at Stoke as they're incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery. Their odious doppelganger in the White House does little for their cause either.
Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third. PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..
Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third. PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..
Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third. PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..
Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.
Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?
Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.
Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.
Question. Are the Brexiteers proposing we renege on treaty obligations more or less insane than the Zoomers who want iScotland to renege on debt?
No - but there are no treaties that say that any country that wants to leave the EU must pay €x billion for the privilege. If the Brexit treaty agrees a net UK liability then the UK will no doubt pay it - after all with £10 billion a year savings it won't be much of a problem raising the money.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%; * Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8% * Taxes on Production up 4.1% * Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
NASA will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, Feb. 22, to present new findings on planets that orbit stars other than our sun, known as exoplanets. The event will air live on NASA Television and the agency's website.
Details of these findings are embargoed by the journal Nature until 1 p.m.
Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.
Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?
Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.
Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.
Yes, well that comes under the heading 'very silly'.
Stoke on Trent Labour 44% +5% UKIP 22% -1% Conservatives 12% -11% Lib Dems 11% +7%
I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.
We all take that risk when we dare to make such predictions, and I start out with the expectation that they will be hopelessly wide of the mark. Thus disappointment is minimised.
I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
White Knight to the rescue?
Tories look to sacrifice two pawns for sake of position. Their queen ought still to deliver checkmate in the end.
It's not even a Con pawn sacrifice; it's failing to accept a Red pawn sacrifice which might lead to the loss of a piece down the line (though Con still a queen and a knight up).
Please forgive my switch back to Copeland but here are the candidates on what they would do if elected to protect NHS services in the constituency area. Who do you think you would chose as the most capable for this task if you were voting on Thursday.
Not one willing to support the downgrading says it all.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
Given the clinical benefits of having a smaller number of more specialist centres, could it be that part of the solution might be the provision of an extra air ambulance in more rural areas? Whitehaven to Carlisle or Lancaster would only be 15 minutes in a helicopter, and there's no shortage of places to land in such a rural area.
Could sort A&E. Less so maternity..
Can pregnant women not travel by helicopter?
There's a small local hospital 4 miles from me. Its good points: there is never a queue for A&E, and the staff are always bored stiff and delighted to see a patient. The trouble is, there are only a very few cases they are prepared to treat themselves, rather than send you off to A&E at the proper hospital in Plymouth, which has X rays and stuff. It is still worth going to them first, but only on a system-gaming basis, because they send you off with a letter saying Dear Derriford A&E please look at this patient, there might be something wrong with him, and that letter magics you to the front of the A&E queue at Derriford. But that isn't enough to justify their continued existence.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
The 2015 Tory campaigning was won via social media, particularly Facebook and Youtube.
Although Sir Lynton Crosby does say he had excellent tools to work with, name David Cameron in general, and George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
Ben Goldacre is impeccable on medicine cures and the need for them to be correctly assessed usingh scientific method.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
Ben Goldacre is impeccable on medicine cures and the need for them to be correctly assessed usingh scientific method.
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
I think that a bigger problem for a good part of the Left is that they've forgotten how to argue their case.
It's a bizarre world. I stood next to John Bercow for an hour last night at the Footie and today I stood next to Jamie Rednapp and Freddie Flintoff for an hour at a funeral.
As you were standing, did you watch Sutton v Arsenal?
It seems from a casual google that there is a paper called the News & Star in West Cumbria, but that it is not the same thing as the West Cumbria News & Star which is a Lab concoction.
It is the same thing. But I suspect the picture in this tweet is of a Labour-funded wraparound ad, of the sort that the Metro does frequently. Clever way of getting an image with masthead that you can then legitimately use in your election communications.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
Ben Goldacre is impeccable on medicine cures and the need for them to be correctly assessed usingh scientific method.
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
The Met office - Conspiracy theorists will suggest that they want to link storms in the UK to hurricanes in the US in the minds of the sheeple and thus provide further evidence of AGW.
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
After looking at transcripts of his speeches, I think that may be quite difficult as it's difficult to actually understand what he is saying. It's more a stream of consciousness rather than a speech
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
Militant gays, pro-choice and trans demanding floral wedding arrangements from Catholics, morning after pills from nuns and men in ladies bathrooms are just core voter issues. Oh and anti-white racism.
NASA will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, Feb. 22, to present new findings on planets that orbit stars other than our sun, known as exoplanets. The event will air live on NASA Television and the agency's website.
Details of these findings are embargoed by the journal Nature until 1 p.m.
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
"Storm Doris" probably sounds a lot less threatening than it should.
However, it should suppress on-the-day voting, so putting a premium on postal votes. UKIP to finish third (or fourth?!) in Stoke?
The weather won't be an issue for hearty Northern voters in Copeland, but the soft Southern Jessies in Stoke will stay at home rather than go out and vote.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump. He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination. But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
After looking at transcripts of his speeches, I think that may be quite difficult as it's difficult to actually understand what he is saying. It's more a stream of consciousness rather than a speech
Yep. I did say that he's a master at twisted misinformation. But some if his stuff is fairly explicit. Say that Obama isn't American and that Clinton should be in jail. Maybe psychologists might help?
15.22 Turnout in the two byelections on Thursday could be hit by Storm Doris which is forecast to bring heavy rain and gale force winds on Thursday. Both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central fall within a band where the Met Office has issued an amber warning for heavy rain and 80mph winds.
"Storm Doris" probably sounds a lot less threatening than it should.
However, it should suppress on-the-day voting, so putting a premium on postal votes. UKIP to finish third (or fourth?!) in Stoke?
The weather won't be an issue for hearty Northern voters in Copeland, but the soft Southern Jessies in Stoke will stay at home rather than go out and vote.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
I think that a bigger problem for a good part of the Left is that they've forgotten how to argue their case.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
Trump's victory -- by 3 million fewer votes than Hillary stacked up btw -- has discombobulated the right wing more than the left. For a start, he routed the GOP Establishment and for an encore, the Tea Party GOPpers. It turns out that support for the Tea Party was down to their NOTA status; not because of support for their wilder policies. On many social issues, I doubt you could get a fag paper between Hillary and the Donald. He seems relaxed about abortion and gays, and even wants Obamacare reformed and replaced rather than abolished. If he is to be impeached, it will be Republicans not Democrats.
I have absolutely no insight to offer with regard to the Stoke and Copeland by elections.
I have gone to neither contest, I know both areas about as well as I know downtown Vladivostok (which is not well) and have not followed either contest or the campaigns.
I won't make a prediction and I haven't had a bet on the outcome - I did have a pleasant afternoon in the sunshine at Lingfield and backed a 9/1 winner thank you for asking.
I do know from personal experience how stressful and exhausting by elections can be - Friday will seem an eternity away but I bet most of the participants can't wait.
Copeland: Labour 39% Tories 36% Lib Dems 11% UKIP 9%
I concur. That sounds about right to me.
In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it. Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.
Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
"I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 "
Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way
Comments
She should go dressed in mufti.
There are real issues in staffing low volume hospitals like Whitehaven, though the government sems strangely reluctant to use the obvious one of providing better pay and working hours in such situations. What is it that they have against market forces?
https://twitter.com/DanielAudritt/status/554439887152513024
Are people really so gullible? It appears so when obvious lies that aren't even necessary (size of crowd, biggest electoral college win, etc) are just water of a ducks back to many.
NASA will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, Feb. 22, to present new findings on planets that orbit stars other than our sun, known as exoplanets. The event will air live on NASA Television and the agency's website.
Details of these findings are embargoed by the journal Nature until 1 p.m.
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-host-news-conference-on-discovery-beyond-our-solar-system
Note: some of these announcements have, in the past, not quite lived up to their stellar hype.
Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
Last year's deficit has been revised down to £71.6bn, while the percentage fall in YTD borrowing is 21.6%. That implies an annual deficit figure for 2016/2017 of around £55bn if the trend is maintained for two more months.
GDP was c.£1.868bn in 2016, so the deficit may squeak in at under 3%????
Also, within an overall deficit of £55bn, debt interest expenditure (up 5.8%) is close to £50bn.
The growth in tax receipts is quite astonishing:
* National Insurance Receipts up 9%;
* Wealth and Income Taxes up 5.8%
* Taxes on Production up 4.1%
* Other taxes - sin taxes, oil etc - fallen marginally by 0.1%
In terms of worries about consumer appetite to keep spending, the minimum wage is profiled for a 4.1% uplift on April 1st.
The people most likely to spend and least able to save are seeing gross incomes (subject to maintaining total hours) rising. This is combined with a 4.5% uplift in the tax free allowance on April 1st so that disposable incomes should grow faster than inflation (again, subject to hours worked).
EDIT:
Feb-March 2015: £11.868bn borrowed
Feb-March 2016: £ 8.712bn borrowed
Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
I'm still kind of expecting the order to be Labour, UKIP, Conservatives, Lib Dems (and Labour having a clear margin of victory). But it's very murky and I can imagine that being quite wrong in a few different ways.
The research by lefty Resolution foundation actually found analysis of the self employment numbers shows that isn't true and that the majority of those new self employed "jobs" are very well paid.
I would hazard a guess that lots of professionals has decided (or pushed by a change in situation) that they can do what they do as an individual and not via a bigger company, now with the interwebs etc.
"But borrowing forecasts revised up to £55.5bn (+£5.6bn), £38.8bn (+£14bn) and £21.4bn (+16.8bn) in 2016-7, 2017-8 and 2018-9 respectively
The deficit as a share of GDP is projected to fall to 2.9% in 2016-17, 1.9% in 2017-18 and 1% in 2018-19"
It looks like the government will come in on the button with Osborne's forecast in spite of all the supposed upheaval.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/02/trump-is-right-failing-new-york-times-is-in-serious-trouble/
The majority are consultancies and professional services. Many were 40+% tax bracket.
Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/83493/jeremy-corbyn-media-blame-labour
1) start people at higher points on the scale.
2) generous allowances in both money and time to enhance skills in bigger units.
3) relocation allowances
4) Putting more money into CEA award pots.
5) writing rotas that allow decent time off for family duties such as annualised PA's
Of course Brexit will benefit the workers by reducing the numbers of migrants undercutting natives wages, pushing up wage rates. I am told that is the whole point.
https://youtu.be/LcESByl9rpc
"The threshold at which people pay 40% income tax will rise from £42,385 now to £45,000 in April 2017. Will only apply to Scotland if adopted by Scottish government"
http://trumpdonald.org/
Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/21/sweden-cars-torched-looting-riots/
I find they way Nutall has carried on downright bizarre.
It really is amateur hour.
Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
I've been thinking a bit about Trump.
He's a master player of alternative truth in our age of global dissemination.
But it would be great for someone or group to start a "Trump watch" web site listing his wrong and/or inconsistent statements.
There is such a one for alternative medicine called "Quack watch".
There is another site (I found it through the formidable Ben Goldacre's page) that lists many/most of articles in the Mail that juggle between cancer causing/curing foods, usually not in the same issue though.
The "Trump Watch" site would be busy and informative. Of course Trump-o-philes wouldn't care less.
PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..
Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.
There's a small local hospital 4 miles from me. Its good points: there is never a queue for A&E, and the staff are always bored stiff and delighted to see a patient. The trouble is, there are only a very few cases they are prepared to treat themselves, rather than send you off to A&E at the proper hospital in Plymouth, which has X rays and stuff. It is still worth going to them first, but only on a system-gaming basis, because they send you off with a letter saying Dear Derriford A&E please look at this patient, there might be something wrong with him, and that letter magics you to the front of the A&E queue at Derriford. But that isn't enough to justify their continued existence.
Although Sir Lynton Crosby does say he had excellent tools to work with, name David Cameron in general, and George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy.
Ben Goldacre is impeccable on medicine cures and the need for them to be correctly assessed usingh scientific method.
See him at
http://www.badscience.net/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/21/paul-nuttall-takes-party-in-stoke-byelection-hustings-after-ukip-resignations-politics-live
"The democratic road to socialism is not the same as the parliamentary road.”
https://order-order.com/
i wish I'd failed that much.
In which context rest in peace Peter Mansfield.
People of Britain, do you think the UK should pay the EU £60 billion to pay for Jean Claude Juncker's pension fund?
Yes -
No -
That isn't even a leading question. The EU would love it.
Who names these things?
However, it should suppress on-the-day voting, so putting a premium on postal votes. UKIP to finish third (or fourth?!) in Stoke?
https://twitter.com/SkySportsNewsHQ/status/834064591646838791
Maybe psychologists might help?
I have absolutely no insight to offer with regard to the Stoke and Copeland by elections.
I have gone to neither contest, I know both areas about as well as I know downtown Vladivostok (which is not well) and have not followed either contest or the campaigns.
I won't make a prediction and I haven't had a bet on the outcome - I did have a pleasant afternoon in the sunshine at Lingfield and backed a 9/1 winner thank you for asking.
I do know from personal experience how stressful and exhausting by elections can be - Friday will seem an eternity away but I bet most of the participants can't wait.
Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way