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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    isam said:

    midwinter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stoke :

    Labour 41%
    Tories 19%
    UKIP 18%
    Lib Dem 17%

    Copeland:
    Labour 39%
    Tories 36%
    Lib Dems 11%
    UKIP 9%


    I concur. That sounds about right to me.
    In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it.
    Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
    I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.

    Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
    I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
    "I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 "

    Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way
    I think UKIP could have done well here, but Paul Nuttall's behaviour has been bizarre.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    "Germany and France want the European Union to weaken its human rights safeguards to allow for deportation of asylum seekers before their case is considered, according to their joint proposal on curbing immigration, seen by Reuters on Tuesday."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-france-idUKKBN16015X?il=0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.
  • Je me rends
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    First Trump, then Salmond, now Corbyn:

    Jeremy Corbyn has blamed the media for Labour's consistently bad opinion poll ratings. The Labour leader said his party was more successful at getting its message across on social media sites instead.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/83493/jeremy-corbyn-media-blame-labour

    Mainly because Twitter/ Facebook are playthings of the left and are actively censoring sensible views.
    Some of us pb coffin-dodgers can remember a time when David Cameron roamed the Earth and Conservative election success was credited to the party's mastery of social media.
    That was then - Trump's victory in the USA has stirred a hornet's nest in the lat-left camp. As I have said before, social media is killing the left - it is providing positive feedback whereby all their more ludicrous ideas gain sufficient traction to become mainstream. Labour support is nosediving and the Democrats currently are wandering witless in the wilderness of USA politics.
    I think that a bigger problem for a good part of the Left is that they've forgotten how to argue their case.
    Racist! Nazi! Bigot!
    Jeez....you're so funny. Let me get some thread out so I can stitch my sides up....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017

    ttps://twitter.com/AndyWoodcock/status/834064653638594560


    What did you expect him to say…
    Je me rends
    :lol:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    I'm not surprised losing to United....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894

    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pkelso: Break: Sutton manager tells @SkyNews Wayne Shaw has been asked for and submitted his resignation over pie affair
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017
    "We would like to have the possibility to be included in EU-UK arrangements concerning the internal market, permanent as well as transitional," the Norwegian EEA and EU minister, Frank Bakke-Jensen, said in a speech to EU ambassadors in Oslo."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-idUKKBN1601KV?il=0

    That reads like Norway wants a renegotiation of it's terms with the EU.

    The UK is it's biggest export destination and accounts for close to a quarter of Norway's export trade with the EU.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.
    However, postal votes tend to used more by the Tories.

    Perhaps Mrs May saw the long range weather forecast before she went to Stoke?
  • Pulpstar said:

    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.

    Less clear in Copeland, though.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    midwinter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stoke :

    Labour 41%
    Tories 19%
    UKIP 18%
    Lib Dem 17%

    Copeland:
    Labour 39%
    Tories 36%
    Lib Dems 11%
    UKIP 9%


    I concur. That sounds about right to me.
    In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it.
    Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
    I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.

    Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
    I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
    "I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 "

    Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way
    I take your point in Tory/Lab marginals but in this particular constituency voting Tory in 2015 was never going to make any difference anyway. I can't see now that Brexit is done why anybody who supported Leave in 2015and voted that way in would change to UKIP now the votes won.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    chestnut said:

    "We would like to have the possibility to be included in EU-UK arrangements concerning the internal market, permanent as well as transitional," the Norwegian EEA and EU minister, Frank Bakke-Jensen, said in a speech to EU ambassadors in Oslo."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-idUKKBN1601KV?il=0

    That reads like Norway wants a renegotiation of it's terms with the EU.

    The UK is it's biggest export destination and accounts for close to a quarter of Norway's export trade with the EU.

    It reads to me like Norway is facing up to the cost of not having a seat at the EU table.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894

    Pulpstar said:

    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.

    Less clear in Copeland, though.
    Well both Labour and the Tories have proper postal operations and organisation. So I'd agree with that.
    Might help the Tories marginally ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Seen a lot of complaints from sports fans about politics - I feel the same with TV shows

    Jeff B
    This is a magnificently on-point, accurate dissection of the Progressive Turn in sports journalism by @michaelbd: https://t.co/CnzidqvQCP
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.
    However, postal votes tend to used more by the Tories.

    Perhaps Mrs May saw the long range weather forecast before she went to Stoke?
    I'd have thought postals would tend to favour the locally dominant party.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Well both Labour and the Tories have proper postal operations and organisation. So I'd agree with that.
    Might help the Tories marginally ?

    I'm not sure, the Tory voters tend to be in more rural areas and if they haven't got a postal vote might be disproportionately hit by Doris.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    midwinter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stoke :

    Labour 41%
    Tories 19%
    UKIP 18%
    Lib Dem 17%

    Copeland:
    Labour 39%
    Tories 36%
    Lib Dems 11%
    UKIP 9%


    I concur. That sounds about right to me.
    In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it.
    Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
    I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.

    Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
    I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
    "I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 "

    Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way
    I think UKIP could have done well here, but Paul Nuttall's behaviour has been bizarre.
    It's almost as if his credibility has been destroyed by dark forces out to get him....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Roger said:
    In reality, he's a rampant Priapus.
  • Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.
    However, postal votes tend to used more by the Tories.

    Perhaps Mrs May saw the long range weather forecast before she went to Stoke?
    I'd have thought postals would tend to favour the locally dominant party.
    There is that, but I do know the Tories have been analysing the area a lot, in the hope of taking a few seats nearby at GE2020 when the boundary changes kick in, places like Newcastle-under-Lyme
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited February 2017

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    midwinter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stoke :

    Labour 41%
    Tories 19%
    UKIP 18%
    Lib Dem 17%

    Copeland:
    Labour 39%
    Tories 36%
    Lib Dems 11%
    UKIP 9%


    I concur. That sounds about right to me.
    In short - Copeland is a 2 horse race and I don't know who will win. The value is with labour, and I think they'll edge it.
    Stoke looks to be a one horse race to me, second place is tricky to work out though. At the prices for the straight bet laying UKIP looks to be the clear correct position.
    I still think UKIP are favourites for 2nd in Stoke. Firstly, their vote has been pretty resilient in all parliamentary byelections since 2015, except for Witney. And I think May's visit might have come too late to deter ALL the Tory voters who were going to tactically go UKIP.

    Dr Nuttall's escapades have probably put off many potential Lab->UKIP switchers (if they were ever tempted in the first place), but I'd think the UKIP hardcore vote will be tuning this stuff out. Maybe even discounting it all as a "media smear campaign".
    I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 and plenty wouldn't vote for UKIP ever anyway. Any that were considering it must have been put off by Nuttall. Which may all help fracture the anti -Labour vote. The unknown I suppose is how damaging the Labour candidate and Corbyn are ..which could bring the Lib Dems into the equation yet.
    "I'd imagine most most Tory to UKIP switchers would have headed that way in 2015 "

    Funny how people read things differently. I think plenty of would be UKIP voters stayed Conservative because they didn't want to risk Ed & the SNP in coalition. Now they have the choice between a Eurosceptic and 4 ardent remainers w a Tory majority assured either way
    I think UKIP could have done well here, but Paul Nuttall's behaviour has been bizarre.
    It's almost as if his credibility has been destroyed by dark forces out to get him....
    Yeah, that dodgy UKIP press officer must be a plant from Labour or the Tories
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    chestnut said:

    "We would like to have the possibility to be included in EU-UK arrangements concerning the internal market, permanent as well as transitional," the Norwegian EEA and EU minister, Frank Bakke-Jensen, said in a speech to EU ambassadors in Oslo."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-idUKKBN1601KV?il=0

    That reads like Norway wants a renegotiation of it's terms with the EU.

    The UK is it's biggest export destination and accounts for close to a quarter of Norway's export trade with the EU.

    It reads to me like Norway is facing up to the cost of not having a seat at the EU table.
    Reads to me like realpolitik.

    Just as has happened before, the bloated Southern and Central Europeans are going to get a shellacking from the dynamic and successful old Viking strongholds...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Isn't it a myth that bad weather effects elections?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    :smiley: video

    Fox
    .@IAMMGraham: The fact that “Generation Cupcake” is being diagnosed with 'Post Election Distress Disorder' is ridiculous https://t.co/LY5nthelGZ
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2017
    Stats people will be able to tell me if this info is useful or not

    Average price matched in Stoke (Betfair Exchange)

    Labour 1.84
    UKIP 2.45
    Con 27.46
    LD 46

    Can anyone work out what vote share that would give?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Here we go

    "Memos released Tuesday by the Department of Homeland Security implement executive orders signed by President Donald Trump, one of which calls for the immediate construction of a wall along the Mexican border.

    The two memos, which were signed Monday, are related to Trump’s two orders on internal immigration procedures and border security. The memo on internal enforcement specifically states that the one active executive amnesty program implemented under President Obama, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), is not affected by President Trump’s executive order.

    Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/21/dhs-issues-memos-that-order-immediate-construction-of-border-wall-but-maintain-obamas-amnesty/#ixzz4ZKx1Jov5
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
  • Cicero said:

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.

    So, their way of avoiding the UK getting into trouble is to present it with a ludicrously high bill?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    Stats people will be able to tell me if this info is useful or not

    Average price matched in Stoke (Betfair Exchange)

    Labour 1.84
    UKIP 2.45
    Con 27.46
    LD 46

    Can anyone work out what vote share that would give?

    hmm. I don't think you can calculate that from just the implied win probability.

    If any PBers/lurkers/bookies think they can do it, I'd be love to understand your method!??

    @Jungleland @shadsy @Tissue_Price ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    Wow. Posting from a remote Pacific jungle? Do you not know that Project Fear finished in June 2016...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    are they that concerned ?

    it was within their powers to offer us an acceptable stay in deal.

    it is still within their powers to renegotiate so we stay in - if it was France they would

    In effect they have done nothing in the last 8 months bar muttering threats that we will rue the day

    so where's the deep concern ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    The UK is a pretty successful State by any historical or contemporary measure. There aren't many better places to live on this planet.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Weird thing to think about (from Janan Ganesh's column):

    Tony Blair is only 3 years older than Theresa May.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.

    Troll of the Day Award.

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Miss Plato, cupcakes are splendid.

    Forgot my password, which is a shade alarming given how often I'm here...

    F1: Renault unveil their car. Their aim is 5th. Seems doable, if the car's up to scratch. Have to tussle with the likes of McLaren, Force India and maybe Williams.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39042537
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @pkelso: Break: Sutton manager tells @SkyNews Wayne Shaw has been asked for and submitted his resignation over pie affair

    PieGate just got real...although remember this is a guy who in the past didn't take kindly to the abuse he was getting from a supporter in the stand and so mid game went into the stand and headbutted said supporter. Proppa football!!!

    He was sacked immediately, but shortly afterward rehired.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    The European Union
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
    I'm staying for somewhere more successful - the Kingdom of England as a full member state of the EU.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "Doris batters UKIP in Stoke"
    'Paul Nuttall was asked to explain why his party failed to gain any ground on Labour, in the end falling backwards to 19% of the vote, pipped by the Tory candidate Jack Brereton.
    Speaking to the West Cumberland Express, Nutall claimed that many of UKIP's mainly older voters wanted to get to the polling station but the ferocious lashings of Storm Doris were to blame for his party's failure
    "I had a direct line" claimed Mr Nuttall, adding "God it seems is not a UKIP party member". Nigel Farage claimed the party had run a poor campaign however, and said he'd consider returning to the leadership.

    Will Labour voters really be able to do it on a cold, wet, and windy Thursday night in Stoke?
    They may well have already won with the postals. Doris enhances their chances if anything.
    However, postal votes tend to used more by the Tories.

    Perhaps Mrs May saw the long range weather forecast before she went to Stoke?
    I'd have thought postals would tend to favour the locally dominant party.
    There is that, but I do know the Tories have been analysing the area a lot, in the hope of taking a few seats nearby at GE2020 when the boundary changes kick in, places like Newcastle-under-Lyme
    Weren't there stories circulating some months ago about the Conservatives recruiting for local teams to target marginal seats all around the edges of the large conurbations?

    Just been looking again at the notional results for the revised constituencies. There are 36 Labour seats with notional majorities of 10% or less over the nearest challenger, and (as you'd expect) the Conservatives are second in the bulk of them. Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wolverhampton West, Stockport South and Cheadle, Wrexham Maelor, Nottingham South & Beeston and two seats in Birmingham all fall into this category, and are about an hour or less from Stoke along various main roads.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    *bwahahaha*
  • Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
    I'm staying for somewhere more successful - the Kingdom of England as a full member state of the EU.
    Good luck with that, but I fear you’ll have fallen off the perch long before that happens :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
    I'm staying for somewhere more successful - the Kingdom of England as a full member state of the EU.
    You'll be waiting a long time.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
    I'm staying for somewhere more successful - the Kingdom of England as a full member state of the EU.
    I couldn't decide between:

    Vapid bilge
    Total delusion

    Or

    Over my dead body.

    So I've gone for all three.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    You do your case no favours with hyperbole like "failed state." You ought to have realised that from the Referendum campaign.
    The UK is a failed state. What other developed country is facing a second bid within 5 years from within to break up the country?
    Presumably you're leaving for somewhere more successful, then?
    I'm staying for somewhere more successful - the Kingdom of England as a full member state of the EU.
    so youre shunning the bits of the UK where people think like you in terms of Europe and seeking solace in the bits of the UK that shun Europe.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    *bwahahaha*
    Indeed, what is it with these Cupcakes... :lol:
  • Why is a strange network of Twitter accounts, usually the source of pro-Russian messages, now pumping out tweets about a very specific British election?

    They number in the dozens and they are targeting the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party and in particular its leader, Paul Nuttall.

    This odd collection of Twitter accounts is obsessive. They co-ordinate their messages. And they are also praising Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday's by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's no evidence that they are connected to Labour or any other political party, however.

    Nuttall, who was elected UKIP leader in November, is contesting the seat, which has traditionally been solid for Labour.

    The Twitter network appears to be attempting to try to swing voters by coordinating its messages, firing out memes which play up anti-UKIP news in quick succession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39041596?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    edited February 2017
    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    Matthew Goodwin

    Latest French Pres poll, 1st round:
    Le Pen 27%
    Fillon 20%
    Macron 17%
    Hamon 12%
    Melanchon 12%
    Elabe Feb 18-20
    #Presidentielle2017
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2017

    chestnut said:

    "We would like to have the possibility to be included in EU-UK arrangements concerning the internal market, permanent as well as transitional," the Norwegian EEA and EU minister, Frank Bakke-Jensen, said in a speech to EU ambassadors in Oslo."

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-norway-idUKKBN1601KV?il=0

    That reads like Norway wants a renegotiation of it's terms with the EU.

    The UK is it's biggest export destination and accounts for close to a quarter of Norway's export trade with the EU.

    It reads to me like Norway is facing up to the cost of not having a seat at the EU table.
    It's the way you tell 'em.

    For what it's worth, the Norwegian government are the biggest shareholder in the 'German' company Daimler.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Why is a strange network of Twitter accounts, usually the source of pro-Russian messages, now pumping out tweets about a very specific British election?

    They number in the dozens and they are targeting the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party and in particular its leader, Paul Nuttall.

    This odd collection of Twitter accounts is obsessive. They co-ordinate their messages. And they are also praising Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday's by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's no evidence that they are connected to Labour or any other political party, however.

    Nuttall, who was elected UKIP leader in November, is contesting the seat, which has traditionally been solid for Labour.

    The Twitter network appears to be attempting to try to swing voters by coordinating its messages, firing out memes which play up anti-UKIP news in quick succession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39041596?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

    Once you realise it is from the FAKE NEWS channel - the BBC you realise everything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Why is a strange network of Twitter accounts, usually the source of pro-Russian messages, now pumping out tweets about a very specific British election?

    They number in the dozens and they are targeting the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party and in particular its leader, Paul Nuttall.

    This odd collection of Twitter accounts is obsessive. They co-ordinate their messages. And they are also praising Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday's by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's no evidence that they are connected to Labour or any other political party, however.

    Nuttall, who was elected UKIP leader in November, is contesting the seat, which has traditionally been solid for Labour.

    The Twitter network appears to be attempting to try to swing voters by coordinating its messages, firing out memes which play up anti-UKIP news in quick succession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39041596?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

    Probably Guardian journalists.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited February 2017
    Natasha Bertrand
    DHS Sec Kelly says he's ordered ICE to hire 10,000 more officers and agents
    "expeditiously" https://t.co/wQdewD4XLw

    Priority Enforcement Program, which focuses on convicted criminals, has been terminated. Replaced by Secure Communities Program.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    edited February 2017

    Why is a strange network of Twitter accounts, usually the source of pro-Russian messages, now pumping out tweets about a very specific British election?

    They number in the dozens and they are targeting the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party and in particular its leader, Paul Nuttall.

    This odd collection of Twitter accounts is obsessive. They co-ordinate their messages. And they are also praising Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday's by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's no evidence that they are connected to Labour or any other political party, however.

    Nuttall, who was elected UKIP leader in November, is contesting the seat, which has traditionally been solid for Labour.

    The Twitter network appears to be attempting to try to swing voters by coordinating its messages, firing out memes which play up anti-UKIP news in quick succession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39041596?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

    Not much of a propaganda machine if you have to be "discovered". I just checked out one of the twitter accounts they name....11 followers....I am going to guess probably the other bots.

    If you were actually trying to do this you would at the very least buy 1000s of followers for each of your accounts.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.

    Perhaps you could persuade the EU elite of that, as they seem mightily perturbed by us not paying in anymore.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Why is a strange network of Twitter accounts, usually the source of pro-Russian messages, now pumping out tweets about a very specific British election?

    They number in the dozens and they are targeting the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party and in particular its leader, Paul Nuttall.

    This odd collection of Twitter accounts is obsessive. They co-ordinate their messages. And they are also praising Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn ahead of Thursday's by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central. There's no evidence that they are connected to Labour or any other political party, however.

    Nuttall, who was elected UKIP leader in November, is contesting the seat, which has traditionally been solid for Labour.

    The Twitter network appears to be attempting to try to swing voters by coordinating its messages, firing out memes which play up anti-UKIP news in quick succession:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-39041596?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

    Why is the bbc retailing this garbage as "news"? Can I have my licence fee back?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.
    It shouldn't be too much as the EZ economy is now growing quite well.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.
    And it will be individual nations and the taxpayers within who will be expected to pick up the tab, not eurozone gdp.

    The voters in the individual nations will have their own perspectives on who should be footing the bill.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-budget-finland-idINKBN15212Y
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    *bwahahaha*
    Indeed, what is it with these Cupcakes... :lol:
    Generation Cupcake isn't as edgy as Generation X is it? :lol:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Stats people will be able to tell me if this info is useful or not

    Average price matched in Stoke (Betfair Exchange)

    Labour 1.84
    UKIP 2.45
    Con 27.46
    LD 46

    Can anyone work out what vote share that would give?

    hmm. I don't think you can calculate that from just the implied win probability.

    If any PBers/lurkers/bookies think they can do it, I'd be love to understand your method!??

    @Jungleland @shadsy @Tissue_Price ?
    If we say turnout is 33%, someone clever should be able to give a decent spread on each parties likely vote % I reckon. Not me though!
  • Could someone update me on the timeline of the effort to dethrone John Bercow? It all seems to have gone terribly quiet.
  • Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
  • F1: what foul sin did Hulkenberg commit to warrant those trousers?

    https://twitter.com/GrandPrixDiary/status/834061916607803392
  • Mr. Meeks, better that it fizzle out comically than it garner sufficient support to antagonise him without actually toppling him (he deserves to be toppled, but I never thought it'd happen).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.
    And it will be individual nations and the taxpayers within who will be expected to pick up the tab, not eurozone gdp.

    The voters in the individual nations will have their own perspectives on who should be footing the bill.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-budget-finland-idINKBN15212Y
    It's still a rounding error in the general scheme of things.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    Could someone update me on the timeline of the effort to dethrone John Bercow? It all seems to have gone terribly quiet.

    Only the payroll want to get rid of him: the rest of the House likes it that he stands up to the executive, and can tolerate his "eccentricities" so he is going nowhere soon.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    theakes said:

    Am local, my feeling Labour comfortable, Cons or Lib Dem second/fourth either way, UKIP poor third.
    PS Bully for Jean-Claude, we get what wee deserve after the mistake we made at the Referendum. There is always a price to pay for recklessness..

    Who cares what that drunken buffoon says?

    Always highly intelligent to dish out gratuitous insults to your negotiating partner, which is why the last meetings have ended in shouting matches. The UK had better grow up or it will not just get "salt" but a whipping with the cat beforehand. You cannot get WTO without approval from Russia, which is why there is now genuine panic in Brussels that the UK could do themselves incredible harm. Even the French are now deeply concerned that the Brits are going to smash themselves up so badly that the EU will face a failed state.
    *bwahahaha*
    Indeed, what is it with these Cupcakes... :lol:
    Generation Cupcake isn't as edgy as Generation X is it? :lol:
    Considerably less tetchy than the great orange snowflake!
  • Could someone update me on the timeline of the effort to dethrone John Bercow? It all seems to have gone terribly quiet.

    There was a major development today:

    12.51 After Foreign Office questions James Duddridge, the Conservative MP who tabled the early day motion expressing no confidence in John Bercow, the speaker, used a point of order to ask if it would be debated. He acknowledged that he had received an “underwhelming” amount of support (only four other MPs have signed it), but asked if there would be a debate and vote on his no confidence motion.

    Bercow replied saying there was “absolutely no reason” why the government or the backbench business committee should be allocating time for a debate on this. He said advice from the clerk of the Commons said there was no need for such a debate.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/21/paul-nuttall-takes-party-in-stoke-byelection-hustings-after-ukip-resignations-politics-live
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
    As a twitter feed it does seem to show some advance knowledge.

    Rather too much of it rings true.
  • Mr. P, Ladbrokes has slightly better odds on Bottas (5, earlier today).

    I'd probably avoid betting on those numbers. If someone gave me a tenner on condition I immediately bet on the winner, I'd be looking at Hamilton for the title.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
    As a twitter feed it does seem to show some advance knowledge.

    Rather too much of it rings true.
    My theory is that Melania is behind the account.
  • Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
    As a twitter feed it does seem to show some advance knowledge.

    Rather too much of it rings true.
    My theory is that Melania is behind the account.
    You think she wants Donald back in NY sooner than in 4 years?
  • Could someone update me on the timeline of the effort to dethrone John Bercow? It all seems to have gone terribly quiet.

    There was a major development today:

    12.51 After Foreign Office questions James Duddridge, the Conservative MP who tabled the early day motion expressing no confidence in John Bercow, the speaker, used a point of order to ask if it would be debated. He acknowledged that he had received an “underwhelming” amount of support (only four other MPs have signed it), but asked if there would be a debate and vote on his no confidence motion.

    Bercow replied saying there was “absolutely no reason” why the government or the backbench business committee should be allocating time for a debate on this. He said advice from the clerk of the Commons said there was no need for such a debate.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/21/paul-nuttall-takes-party-in-stoke-byelection-hustings-after-ukip-resignations-politics-live
    Thanks. So the 2/5 with Wm Hill that Mr Bercow will remain in office until 2018 looks fair value, to say the least.

    Whoever would have imagined that John Bercow would be so secure in his seat? There were so many Bercowphobes on pb just two weeks ago that you would have thought his head would be on a spike by now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827

    Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
    As a twitter feed it does seem to show some advance knowledge.

    Rather too much of it rings true.
    I'm just grateful our civil service don't pull any stunts like this.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Oooh errr

    Jean-Claude Juncker says the UK must pay "une facture très salée" for Brexit.

    Lord only knows why the EU is obsessing about the facture. It's almost completely irrelevant to the matter in hand. What are they going to do if we say "pas un sou"', throw us out? And how on earth can we discuss any contributions if we don't know under what deal we'd be contributing?

    Either they are being very silly, or they are bluffing. I rather fear it's the former, which doesn't bode well for the negotiations.
    They are hoping we solve their inevitable, internal squabble.

    Who foots the bill when the Brits leave? Who makes up the shortfall for all the farmers? And so on.

    The Eurozone economy is about $12,500,000,000,000 (not including Denmark, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Poland, or Hungary). €11bn or thereabouts is less than 0.1% of GDP. It's a rounding error.
    And it will be individual nations and the taxpayers within who will be expected to pick up the tab, not eurozone gdp.

    The voters in the individual nations will have their own perspectives on who should be footing the bill.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-budget-finland-idINKBN15212Y
    It's still a rounding error in the general scheme of things.
    I'm not disputing that in terms of Europe as a whole, but in the internal relationship of the 27 it's likely to create some friction. The money still has to be found if they wish to carry on doing the things they have done to date.
  • Mr. Meeks, long time to collect, though.

    Also, liking Bercow and thinking he'd stay on are not mutually exclusive. Plenty of people here thought he should be toast, but would not be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Looks like the sort of thing a bunch of pissed-up Campus students would come up with.
    As a twitter feed it does seem to show some advance knowledge.

    Rather too much of it rings true.
    My theory is that Melania is behind the account.
    You think she wants Donald back in NY sooner than in 4 years?
    In the penthouse at Rikers Island perhaps.
  • Thanks. So the 2/5 with Wm Hill that Mr Bercow will remain in office until 2018 looks fair value, to say the least.

    I think 'free money' is probably closer than 'fair value'.
  • On THE big story. Pie-gate is everything that's wrong about modern life, sport and media.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Bored.. fancy a bet.. who wants to make a price that UKIP finish top 2 in Stoke?
  • SITE NOTICE, ESPECIALLY FOR PUNTERS

    There's tweets out there saying there's a poll in the Stoke Sentinel showing UKIP winning the by election. It's a voodoo poll conducted on the Stoke Sentinel website.
  • Thanks. So the 2/5 with Wm Hill that Mr Bercow will remain in office until 2018 looks fair value, to say the least.

    I think 'free money' is probably closer than 'fair value'.
    Betting on John Bercow's political longevity has been a regular source of income. It's nice to have one more opportunity.
  • Mr. Scrapheap, it is a bit sad.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Baseballcrank
    Note that Trump lost ground for the GOP in nearly all the states gaining population, gained in most of the losers. https://t.co/dWze4DJVkj
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On THE big story. Pie-gate is everything that's wrong about modern life, sport and media.

    Yes, so disappointing that it was a contrived bit of acting rather than a genuine funny story
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894

    Thanks. So the 2/5 with Wm Hill that Mr Bercow will remain in office until 2018 looks fair value, to say the least.

    I think 'free money' is probably closer than 'fair value'.
    Betting on John Bercow's political longevity has been a regular source of income. It's nice to have one more opportunity.
    "Trader" is taking a good look at this :>
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,459
    edited February 2017

    SITE NOTICE, ESPECIALLY FOR PUNTERS

    There's tweets out there saying there's a poll in the Stoke Sentinel showing UKIP winning the by election. It's a voodoo poll conducted on the Stoke Sentinel website.

    FAKE NEWS....it said Labour would win.

    http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/survey-predicts-tight-result-in-stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/story-30149927-detail/story.html
  • On THE big story. Pie-gate is everything that's wrong about modern life, sport and media.

    This MP needs to become PM, some of the greatest puns you'll ever see outside of PB

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/834079329894150145
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    edited February 2017
    If you bet on Bercow remaining at 2-5, you'll have returned 140% of your stake in 10 months time.
This discussion has been closed.