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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stoke Central is set to rank alongside Darlington in 1983 as one of the great by-elections of modern times
So much has happened in the Stoke central by-election that it it looks set to take its place in by election history alongside what many regard as the most sensational of all, Darlington, in 1983.
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https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/834009278218371072
Vincent Hannah was also very good in the Regency period. There aren't many journalists with such long careers.
If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Macron who got 25%, then she'll drift.
If she's on 28.5%, and she's facing Melanchon who got 18%, then she'll come in.
4 Recent Examples Show Why No One Trusts Media 'Fact Checks' https://t.co/QRMuA5gXy0
Worst of all are the Liberal Democrat 'peers'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-4245100/Sutton-s-Wayne-Shaw-investigated-pie-eating-stunt.html
Without context, both the Fact Check, and the Fact Check Fact Check are meaningless. Fortunately, the Fact Check and the Fact Check Fact Check are explicit about their methodologies, so anyone well versed in statistics knows to ignore them.
Almost like someone doesn't know diddly about the 9th circuit, or how the circuit courts/appellate courts operate.
"Greek philosophers all started a new type of thinking. Rather than believing in myths and stories, they began searching for the truth of the world by using their rational thinking."
Myths and stories are more fun though, eh, Plato?
last month ONS said
"In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £75.4 billion. However, the estimates for the financial year ending March 2016 may still be subject to further revision as elements of provisional data are replaced with finalised and audited data"
this month they say
In the financial year ending March 2016 (April 2015 to March 2016), the public sector borrowed £71.7 billion.
to my mind, it makes worrying too much about short term trends in borrowing a fools errand....
Telegraph
Labour's Stoke candidate apologises to wife and daughter for describing women as 'polished turds' https://t.co/uwIMHVY9EU
I am curious about one thing however - the far right is not exactly tolerant of "alternative lifestyles" so I was wondering why Milo appears to be crossdressing in the BBC article below. Very fetching pearls, bracelets, earrings and what looks like a scoop-neck top under his jacket. Not that I mind what he wears, I just thought was unusual for someone well to the political right.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39037244
Any turnout markets ?
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/local-by-elections/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/223166439/
It was a vital step on the road to science but it took another 1,500 years to do the equivalent of actually counting teeth and then revising the theory
When Wellington thrashed Bonaparte
As any child can tell
The house of peers throughout the war
Did nothing in particular
And did it very well.
Killed when an eagle dropped a tortoise from altitude, which then struck him on the head.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/834028165349699584
https://order-order.com/2017/02/21/labour-arguing-about-using-england-flag-on-leaflets/
That picture looks like something out of a Cougar movie. (If you don't know what a 'Cougar' is, don't google it)
(*) Or whatever the heck it was they voted for.
Edit: it also indicates that the Conservatives think that May is a positive, not a negative.
There was also the Whitehaven News front page advert the other day.
https://twitter.com/LabourCopeland/status/833663806765203456
The ref didn't book their bloke who kicked Sanchez while he he was on the floor, then pushed him over when he got up. Normal rules didn't apply on the pitch, so why apply them off?
#confused.
None of anyone's guff is regulated by the ASA, so whether its depicting Salmond as a thief, depicting Howard in a errm 'unsavoury light' or big warnings/announcements on the NHS on the sides of buses quite frankly pretty much anything goes.
Well there is a line. One which Mr Woolas crossed in Oldham - but Labour held the seat in the subsequent by-election anyway; so not really much of a disincentive to the party machines there.
Labour haven't carved anything onto a tombstone in either Copeland or Stoke yet - now carving out in stone what you're going to do. That really is an error.
Some of the greek philosophers were very, very good and even got approximate distances to the moon and sun. Their numbers were very wrong (by a factor of 20 or so) but heading into the right ballpark. That means that they had an idea that the moon and the sun were very, very large.
They were in a minority of philosophers. I often wonder what would have happened if their arguments and views had been more widely accepted.
I just can't see it happening. The PB consensus reminds me too much of the euros, Clacton, Rochester and Brexit. My instinct/the obvious said they'd all go my way, and I was a lone voice in the dark.
Sean Spicier
Can't wait to meet the first to apply for disability because of post election stress disorder.
Mrs C, aye, Anaxagoras[sp] was right about the sun and moon being hot and great rocks rather than gods.
As you say, lots of them had mad ideas. However, the world would be a better place if we still had religion for ritual and philosophy for morality, rather than wrapping morality up in religion.
Apologies
Not Hornchurch, no. I was a teller in Dagenham and that ward was ukip friendly so I backed 9/1 but they were 2nd.
But the GE was a different kettle of fish to one off events. There were a lot more eurosceptics in the country than that resulted implied
My avatar has always been a pair of heels because I like shoes. The flag is the Irish Tricolour because, thanks to Brexit and the fact that I travel around Europe a fair bit, I am using my dual nationality to apply for my Irish passport.
It has the advantage that I no longer care about the outcome of Brexit and my kids are delighted that they can still travel and work in Europe with no restriction as they get Irish citizenship too. Mr C is english but as the spouse of an EU national can travel around the EU without restriction.
Assuming of course that the EU does not implode. I think I have covered just about every outcome other than the zombie apocalypse
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/The-NHS-What-Copeland-MP-election-candidates-say-e80e93dd-c029-4e50-950d-5232c10fc7be-ds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0yymzI6BvU
Oh and I LOVE shoes too.....
AP
"COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) -- Swedish police on Tuesday were investigating a riot that broke out overnight in a predominantly immigrant suburb in Stockholm after officers arrested a suspect on drug charges.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_SWEDEN_RIOTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-02-21-04-33-36
The real issue is how to provide services to often relatively small communities in remote geographical areas. No easy answer to that question.
Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4
Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8
Copeland
Labour 44% +2%
Conservatives 35% -1%
UKIP 11% -5%
Lib Dems 6% +2%
Stoke on Trent
Labour 44% +5%
UKIP 22% -1%
Conservatives 12% -11%
Lib Dems 11% +7%
I'll get ready for all the egg on my face come Thursday night.
My predictions:
Copeland
Conservatives - 41%
Labour - 39%
Lib Dems - 8%
Ukip - 7%
Stoke
UKIP - 26%
Conservatives 23%
Labour - 22%
Lib Dems - 21%
there... fixed it for you
Reuters
BREAKING: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen says she cancelled a meeting with Lebanon's Grand Mufti after refusing to wear a headscarf https://t.co/hJEXKkNJnW
Theakes said :
'There was Bromsgrove in 1971 where it nearly happened, a Labour majority in 1970 of over 10, 000 cut to under 2,000 '
I am afraid you have got that totally wrong. The May 1971 by election at Bromsgrove saw a Labour gain - a Tory majority of 10,000 became a Labour majority of nearly 2,000
I had a go at forecasting Copeland back in December, and went for a Tory majority of 3,500. Humiliation beckons - but more likely for yours truly than the Labour Party, knowing my luck.
Of course, even the 1.5% swing to Labour in my prediction would be very poor for an Opposition in a byelection (Miliband was usually racking up double-digit swings at this point).
President Of Iceland Announces That He Wants To Ban Pineapple On Pizza
https://tinyurl.com/hog9mr4
Labour 41%
Tories 19%
UKIP 18%
Lib Dem 17%
Copeland:
Labour 39%
Tories 36%
Lib Dems 11%
UKIP 9%
I thought the Conservative answer was the strongest, followed by the Lib Dem. I thought that the Labour response was notably weak, given their campaign focus on it, and the candidate's experience.
I think we are all expecting Copeland to be close between Con and Lab with others way behind - but Stoke could be almost any result. UKIP seem to be going backwards but other than that it'll probably be a historic low number of votes needed to win.
Tim Pool
@CraigS Id like to think its because I have high profile left and right wing friends, so whatever I find will be seen as undeniable proof