politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 9th 2017

First!

2 disqualifications? I assume the most common reason is non-attendance, but is it so hard to show up once in six months?

Should they really pair up Great and Little Oakley? The great should never be brought down by the lesser.

kle4 said:

2 disqualifications? I assume the most common reason is non-attendance, but is it so hard to show up once in six months?

Should they really pair up Great and Little Oakley? The great should never be brought down by the lesser.

Often a disqualification can occur because of the job of the Councillor

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

He claims agoraphobia.

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

The weather tonight will test which Party's supporters are the most determined to vote.

1°C with snow flurries in Waterside on North Norfolk.

Very low turnout with the angriest, most determined electors actually going out to vote.
So I predict a LibDem gain in at least two of these seats.

Totally off topic

Trump being blamed for Twitters negative success story.

Richard Kramer of Arete Research told CNBC that the president’s tweeting may deter brands from advertising on Twitter due to fear of the current extreme polarization among Americans over politics. “I think whatever your political views, it’s clear that Trump is extremely divisive, and this isn’t really a positive for advertisers,” said Kramer.

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

To be honest, severe agrophobia presumably makes canvassing/campaigning/actually doing the role quite difficult, no?

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

See: http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/councillor-loses-seat-over-illness-1-8190655

An interesting and sad case. Agoraphobia is a terrible illness, and it seems this chap felt he was able to do a reasonable job using phone and IT.

weejonnie said:

Totally off topic

Trump being blamed for Twitters negative success story.

Richard Kramer of Arete Research told CNBC that the president’s tweeting may deter brands from advertising on Twitter due to fear of the current extreme polarization among Americans over politics. “I think whatever your political views, it’s clear that Trump is extremely divisive, and this isn’t really a positive for advertisers,” said Kramer.

I cofounded Arete with Richard

https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/829651354100625408

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Harsh to insist on given medical grounds. I've seen several areas grant such 'leaves of absence' from attendance on medical grounds with no dissent.

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

There are different aspects to the councillor role. How much of it should be attending formal meetings in person may depend on the individual, though in most cases it would not be hard to at least show up for full council meetings even if you have no interest in serving on any other committees a council may have, focusing on other aspects. I imagine most people would find it hard to fulfill the other roles without getting out and about, but we shall see what the local people think on that front.

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

MarkSenior said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

The result tonight will show the voters think he is doing a great job .

Most councillor work can be done from home these days, I think. I assume from your comment he is a conscientious councillor who deals with his ward's issues.

Pulpstar said:

MarkSenior said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

The result tonight will show the voters think he is doing a great job .

Most councillor work can be done from home these days, I think. I assume from your comment he is a conscientious councillor who deals with his ward's issues.

If he was running the local Post Office he probably knew more about what was going on and what locals thought than any of the other councillors !!

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

There are different aspects to the councillor role. How much of it should be attending formal meetings in person may depend on the individual, though in most cases it would not be hard to at least show up for full council meetings even if you have no interest in serving on any other committees a council may have, focusing on other aspects. I imagine most people would find it hard to fulfill the other roles without getting out and about, but we shall see what the local people think on that front.

In this technological age it would be possible to attend council meetings via Skype .

I've heard that can count as meeting legal requirements to attend in Scotland, but is not yet the case in England - anyone know? I can see it being an issue in terms of when confidential information is discussed.

More breaking Laird Ted news.

'Trump’s EU ambassador pick was ‘head’ of non-existent Scots body

But in his book, he suggests his role in Scottish education was far more extensive, involving oversight of the accounts at not only Aberdeen, but Edinburgh, Glasgow and St Andrew’s universities. He wrote that as part of the position, “my charge was to bring them into the twenty-first century financially.” However, there is no record of an Ancient Scottish Universities Trust. A spokeswoman for Universities Scotland, the representative body of Scotland’s 19 higher education institutions, told The Scotsman it had no knowledge of an organisation by that name.'

http://tinyurl.com/j7dnxh8

I sense a 'selective quotes taken out of context' statement is in the offing.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Especially as including Greece in the bloc likely helped to surpress the Euro, too.

The major block to Eurofederalism will always be Germany's unwillingness
To leave the current cushy position.

Is there any disadvantage to running a trade surplus?

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

There are different aspects to the councillor role. How much of it should be attending formal meetings in person may depend on the individual, though in most cases it would not be hard to at least show up for full council meetings even if you have no interest in serving on any other committees a council may have, focusing on other aspects. I imagine most people would find it hard to fulfill the other roles without getting out and about, but we shall see what the local people think on that front.

In this technological age it would be possible to attend council meetings via Skype .

I've heard that can count as meeting legal requirements to attend in Scotland, but is not yet the case in England - anyone know? I can see it being an issue in terms of when confidential information is discussed.

Skype is confidential enough for counselling. (My other half is a psychotherapist). Informed risk is appropriate, as the US govt may be watching. Not sure they're bothered about Fylde DC too much though.

Alanbrooke said:

viewcode said:

Alanbrooke said:

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile...

I'll just leave that hanging there, I think...

just let it hang

Germany is a fantastic country, I worked there for 5 years

And yet...

viewcode said:

Alanbrooke said:

viewcode said:

Alanbrooke said:

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile...

I'll just leave that hanging there, I think...

just let it hang

Germany is a fantastic country, I worked there for 5 years

And yet...

no idea where youre coming from

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

Beverley_C said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all watching bbc2 take on the rise of popularism across the EU?

No. I am watching YouTube on replacing standing rigging and the advantages of hi-mod fittings over rod-rigging

Hello sailor!

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

He claims agoraphobia.

I hate those damn rabbits too

lagos is Rabbit, surely? Agora is marketplace.

Have you never had a jumper made of agora wool?

Black_Rook said:

Gallowgate said:

Is there any disadvantage to running a trade surplus?

1. If your economy is disproportionately dependent upon trade (external demand) relative to consumer spending (internal demand) then it leaves you potentially much more vulnerable to downturns elsewhere in the world; and (more importantly,)
2. It's beggar-thy-neighbour economics. You sell stuff to the deficit nations until they begin to buckle under the weight of the debts they need to take out to buy it. They don't thank you for your policies, and you lose their custom at the same time.

Large and continuous trade surpluses are unsustainable in the long term. If something can't continue forever then, logically, it MUST - at some point - stop. And then you have to pay the price for this.

And vice versa.

And trust me, the adjustment from too large a surplus is a lot less painful than the one from too large a deficit.

Well Guy wants an EU army and proper EU government.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all watching bbc2 take on the rise of popularism across the EU?

No, Chicago Fire on 5USA

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

He claims agoraphobia.

I hate those damn rabbits too

lagos is Rabbit, surely? Agora is marketplace.

Have you never had a jumper made of agora wool?

Excuse me nobody should have a problem with rabbits

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

North Norfolk should be interesting, the last bastion at Westminster of the rural poor Liberal in the East of England.

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

Black_Rook said:

Gallowgate said:

Is there any disadvantage to running a trade surplus?

1. If your economy is disproportionately dependent upon trade (external demand) relative to consumer spending (internal demand) then it leaves you potentially much more vulnerable to downturns elsewhere in the world; and (more importantly,)
2. It's beggar-thy-neighbour economics. You sell stuff to the deficit nations until they begin to buckle under the weight of the debts they need to take out to buy it. They don't thank you for your policies, and you lose their custom at the same time.

Large and continuous trade surpluses are unsustainable in the long term. If something can't continue forever then, logically, it MUST - at some point - stop. And then you have to pay the price for this.

Selling too much stuff. We discuss this problem regularly in my company.

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

Well this BBC2 programme is making it seem like the EU is sinking ship.

Beverley_C said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Beverley_C said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all watching bbc2 take on the rise of popularism across the EU?

No. I am watching YouTube on replacing standing rigging and the advantages of hi-mod fittings over rod-rigging

Hello sailor!

Aaaharrr me hearties! Shiver me timbers!!

From your avatar, hopefully you haven't gone and joined those EU luvvies in Sinn Fein!

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

He claims agoraphobia.

I hate those damn rabbits too

lagos is Rabbit, surely? Agora is marketplace.

Have you never had a jumper made of agora wool?

I have one of angora (goat) wool...

Believe or not, this is an angora rabbit:
http://www.amusingplanet.com/2014/01/angora-rabbit-world-fluffiest-bunny.html

Where's Plato when you need her to appreciate a post?

weejonnie said:

Totally off topic

Trump being blamed for Twitters negative success story.

Richard Kramer of Arete Research told CNBC that the president’s tweeting may deter brands from advertising on Twitter due to fear of the current extreme polarization among Americans over politics. “I think whatever your political views, it’s clear that Trump is extremely divisive, and this isn’t really a positive for advertisers,” said Kramer.

Depends what's being advertised.

kle4 said:

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

See: http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/councillor-loses-seat-over-illness-1-8190655

An interesting and sad case. Agoraphobia is a terrible illness, and it seems this chap felt he was able to do a reasonable job using phone and IT.

I note from the article that the council can only make a dispensation of he asks for it and the gentleman in question did not

Well if that is the case then it would seem there was indeed no plot and thus no blame to attach.

@MarkSenior always sees a plot when the Tories are concerned.

Beverley_C said:

Anorak said:

Beverley_C said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all watching bbc2 take on the rise of popularism across the EU?

No. I am watching YouTube on replacing standing rigging and the advantages of hi-mod fittings over rod-rigging

Who'd have thought putting up a sex-swing was so complicated. Stick to hammocks, I say,

Sex swings??? If I catch you doing that on my boat I will bring you up with a round-turn and have you whipped with the spinnaker halyard. And you are not to enjoy it!!!

Sorry, ma'am. Won't do it again, ma'am. Discipline me if you must, but not with the cat 'o nine tails!

Luckyguy1983 said:

weejonnie said:

Totally off topic

Trump being blamed for Twitters negative success story.

Richard Kramer of Arete Research told CNBC that the president’s tweeting may deter brands from advertising on Twitter due to fear of the current extreme polarization among Americans over politics. “I think whatever your political views, it’s clear that Trump is extremely divisive, and this isn’t really a positive for advertisers,” said Kramer.

Depends what's being advertised.

Marmite sells itself on its divisiveness after all.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

If the Greeks get back on with the task of tackling their deficit they may