politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continu

rottenborough said:

BudG said:

rottenborough said:

BudG said:

Fillon down to 18.5% in todays poll.


http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/03-02-2017.pdf

Madame President.

It's a rolling daily poll that Ifop are running. Down 1.5% from yesterday. He is going to fall behind Hamon if he doesn't withdraw soon.

and LePen is ticking up, 1/2 % each day by looks of it.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_P said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

You really have no idea how to negotiate do you

LOL

scene: TM walks into shop

TM: I do not seek a pint of milk, please

SK: OK

TM: How much is it?

SK: What?

TM: The pint of milk.

SK: The one you are NOT seeking...

repeat to fade

That would be a very clever analogy if pretending you want something less than you do wasn't an established part of bargaining wherever price is flexible.

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_P said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

You really have no idea how to negotiate do you

LOL

scene: TM walks into shop

TM: I do not seek a pint of milk, please

SK: OK

TM: How much is it?

SK: What?

TM: The pint of milk.

SK: The one you are NOT seeking...

repeat to fade

That would be a very clever analogy if pretending you want something less than you do wasn't an established part of bargaining wherever price is flexible.

To be contrasted with David Cameron's negotiating style, which was to stand in the middle of the carpet bazaar and to announce loudly "I desperately need a carpet, and this is how much I have to spend...."

*Abdul the Carpet Trader reaches to the back of the store for that mouldy, moth eaten rag he's had hanging around for years.....*

Black_Rook said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

I think I can offer something towards an explanation for the LD success in local government elections and how that relates to brexit. ( It doesn't.)

All the calculations offered here are percentages of votes cast and I think in the three last night none of the turnouts exceeded 35%. That should not be ignored.

We know that the LDs have excellent records of voter inclination in the seats they hold and many they used to hold or aspired to hold. We also know they have a good body of people who will ring up 100 people either on election day or in the days before. On an average by-election Thursday that group can be used to ring clear LDs from the target ward perhaps 5 or 6 times. Against that an Independent has no chance and it is pretty difficult for the other parties either as their machines do not work that way.

The greatest interest last night was the ward where they got 4% - no database, therefore no telephoning, therefore no overclocking of the LD vote.

The LD machine achieved gold with Sarah Olney but has also achieved many silvers. However, there is a capacity issue and they will not be able to do the same carpet bombing at the May council elections.

Here in South Lakeland there are hardly any council elections with less than 50% turnout as both viable candidates will be mounting a massive GOTV. It is a fact that I lost my county seat four years ago with more votes than the winning candidate in over 70 of the 84 divisions.

Once upon a time a candidate could get elected with one election address and one other hand-out leaflet. Most of the candidates who have stood in by-elections this last year seem to have imagined that was still true. If there is an LD anywhere near they will learn to their cost that that is no longer the case.

Broadly coincides with my own view. Very effective and enthusiastic campaigning in areas where they have strength and/or local knowledge, which is still far from everywhere, combined with effects of low turnout in an election regarded by many voters as relatively unimportant and/or an opportunity for harmless protest. And they won't be able to campaign strongly everywhere at once in a full round of council elections, let alone a General Election.

The performance in the 2016 English locals was unspectacular - modest increase in seats, and actually a small decline in vote share - but this May's polls are largely in the shire counties and the Lib Dems may do better in those, rebuilding from a much-depleted base. But I'd be surprised if there were the kinds of sweeping gains needed to turn big chunks of the map yellow again.