@TSE, the Senate map is horrible for the Democrats in 2018. They're defending 5 seats that went for Trump by margins of 18-41%, plus Ohio, which Trump won by 9%.
That's what I thought.
I'm trying to look at what the House and Senate will look like for the latter half of his term
The Democrats are defending seats in five massively red States (two of which they won due to appalling Republican candidates in 2012, Indiana and Missouri). They're also defending seats in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin, won by Trump (albeit, the last four narrowly). They're also defending seats in New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia, all marginal in Senate terms.
Manchin, Tester, and Heitkamp are all well-regarded in their States, and Democrats won the Governorships in West Virginia and Montana, despite huge wins for Trump. So, none of them should be considered write offs. The Republicans are defending one marginal seat in Nevada.
IMO, Trump would have to plumb appalling depths of unpopularity (worse than Bush in 2006-08) for the Democrats to hold everything, and gain Nevada. However, normal levels of mid-term unpopularity should reduce the scale of Democratic losses. My best guess at this point, would be a net loss of 3 Senate seats for the Democrats. Given that would mean that some Democratic Senators would have held on in solidly Red States, it wouldn't actually be a bad result, and the Senate maps become much better for them in 2020 and 2022.
The House in 2018 should be much better for the Democrats. They need to gain 24 seats to take control, which is about average for the opposition in mid-term.
Thanks for that.
I'm looking on betting from 2019 onwards
1) The House voting to impeach
2) The Senate convicting by a two-thirds majority
I can see 1) happening but not 2)
Isn't two-thirds in favour, one-third against a one-third majority?
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
What choice would they have?
In practice, it's hard to see how a separate adjudication method could be set up in time anyway, and the government could finesse it as accepting ECJ rulings over the Single Market but not accepting ECJ rulings having direct effect in UK law.
Agreed. I suspect HMG will accept something like this, but they'll try and fudge it with semantics, to save face.
Still leaves the thorny question of FoM. But nonetheless the first inklings of a deal emerge. It will not be The Apocalypse
I think it would fly - apart from the headbangers - who won't be happy until the UK is towed out into the middle of the Atlantic.
The next net migration figures are due 23rd February. I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum. If the numbers are dropping, then I think May will keep the electorate onside.
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.
The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.
I completely agree.
I think there's an element of snibbishness operating in some punditry - they think of the WWC as a seething mass of dimwit people who read the Sun and vote for any skinhead who comes along. In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-trravelled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things. Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke, and I don't think voters will instantly gravitate to him.
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.
The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.
I completely agree.
I think there's an element of snibbishness operating in some punditry - they think of the WWC as a seething mass of dimwit people who read the Sun and vote for any skinhead who comes along. In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-trravelled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things. Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke, and I don't think voters will instantly gravitate to him.
"Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke"
apropos NPower price hike, NPower is German as is E.On, EDF is French and Scottish Power is Spanish. Remoaners would frighten us with what the EU would do to us?
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Transition period = no new trade deals.
Everyone accepts that trade deals take years to negotiate.
I presume the UK's position would be OK we'll accept ECJ laws on the Single Market for 5 years, in transition (but we'll call it something else to save face), however during that time the UK will negotiate new trade deals, so that at the end of the 5 years they come into effect immediately. No cliff edge for anyone.
Seems eminently sensible. But then, we're talking about politicians here....
We have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU and thereafter we can negotiate one with the RoW Tonga, Sweden, etc.
They have to be consecutively negotiated (to say nothing of consecutively implemented as you mention) because we can't negotiate a new trade deal with Tonga until we and Tonga knows what our trade deal with the EU will look like.
Now of course as others have said, this is only a matter of time and of course the UK will be free from the feel of not having sovereignty for ever after. But there are politics in this also and I'm not sure how it will play. It will be a long period of uncertainty whatever happens and the UK's NPV will suffer accordingly.
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.
The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.
I completely agree.
I think there's an element of snibbishness operating in some punditry - they think of the WWC as a seething mass of dimwit people who read the Sun and vote for any skinhead who comes along. In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-trravelled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things. Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke, and I don't think voters will instantly gravitate to him.
I've said before that my extended family ramify right across the class system bar the aristocracy. Only a tiny minority buy, let alone read, the papers or watch the news. Information appears to spread via a sort of social osmosis, or if it's really something that piques their interest, they give me a call, as I am the clan current affairs geek.
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.
The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.
I completely agree.
In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-traveled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things.
Understatement of the year contender right there, and we're barely into February.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
@TSE, the Senate map is horrible for the Democrats in 2018. They're defending 5 seats that went for Trump by margins of 18-41%, plus Ohio, which Trump won by 9%.
That's what I thought.
I'm trying to look at what the House and Senate will look like for the latter half of his term
The Democrats are defending seats in five massively red States (two of which they won due to appalling Republican candidates in 2012, Indiana and Missouri). They're also defending seats in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin, won by Trump (albeit, the last four narrowly). They're also defending seats in New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia, all marginal in Senate terms.
Manchin, Tester, and Heitkamp are all well-regarded in their States, and Democrats won the Governorships in West Virginia and Montana, despite huge wins for Trump. So, none of them should be considered write offs. The Republicans are defending one marginal seat in Nevada.
IMO, Trump would have to plumb appalling depths of unpopularity (worse than Bush in 2006-08) for the Democrats to hold everything, and gain Nevada. However, normal levels of mid-term unpopularity should reduce the scale of Democratic losses. My best guess at this point, would be a net loss of 3 Senate seats for the Democrats. Given that would mean that some Democratic Senators would have held on in solidly Red States, it wouldn't actually be a bad result, and the Senate maps become much better for them in 2020 and 2022.
The House in 2018 should be much better for the Democrats. They need to gain 24 seats to take control, which is about average for the opposition in mid-term.
Thanks for that.
I'm looking on betting from 2019 onwards
1) The House voting to impeach
2) The Senate convicting by a two-thirds majority
I can see 1) happening but not 2)
bet365 go 6/4 on impeachment but 6/1 on conviction (1st term only)
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
It materially affects how people vote, so I think taking it seriously is warranted. Whether we should publish the address on the ballot paper is another matter given security concerns, but right now we do (there is the option to have [lives in the x constituency], but that looks a bit something-to-hidey).
And in the case you link to, it's not that he was misleading voters but that he was attempting to serve on a public body which he was not entitled to. We have to take such things seriously. Prison may be a touch OTT, but only a touch.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname, looking at someone's bird and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
Golly! But in that case residency is required in order to stand for election, rather than just a useful vote-getter.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused. Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
Golly! But in that case residency is required in order to stand for election, rather than just a useful vote-getter.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
I'm obviously not communicating very clearly this afternoon - oh to be @Cyclefree!
Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.
There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
If he had put his address in Bootle at the same time as having rented out this house in Stoke, it is about 1.02 that Labour would have tried to make something of that as well.
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
The Returning Officer is not supposed to check the address or any other details. In fact, he is explicitly forbidden from investigating.
Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.
If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:
Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.
Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.
If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:
Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused. Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
I am not convinced it is the RO's duty to investigate the truth of representations made in nomination papers; especially not on the basis of what was "widely known".
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
I'm obviously not communicating very clearly this afternoon - oh to be @Cyclefree!
Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.
There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.
Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.
If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:
Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.
we need Avery back to lighten us up a bit
He was a top bloke who also knew Osborne was brilliant.
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
I'm obviously not communicating very clearly this afternoon - oh to be @Cyclefree!
Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.
There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.
I think Isam was making a joke (and a good one). Irony meters need refurbishing all round.
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused. Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
I am not convinced it is the RO's duty to investigate the truth of representations made in nomination papers; especially not on the basis of what was "widely known".
I don't think it was widely known, or Labour could have objected earlier. I think it was only something Nuttall said that tipped people off. IIRC.
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
The Returning Officer is not supposed to check the address or any other details. In fact, he is explicitly forbidden from investigating.
It's odd, but that's how it is.
Must have changed over the years. Thanks.
Mr isam, of course, opponents would have made capital out of his carpet-bagging, but ’twas ever thus and happens to all such, of whatever party. And as it is he’s probably got the worst of all possible worlds.
So for all the fury, demonstrations by the left across the UK, nearly 2 million sign a petition against Trump coming here, labour politician brands Theresa May, Theresa the appeaser, we find her popularity increases +1 and the conservatives have a 14% lead over labour.
Listening to the Malta News conference on the BBC, Donald Tusk recognised TM's contribution and there was quite a nuance stance in favour of the UK. This along with the Spanish agreeing that the ex pats situation is a priority, it looks like it was quite a successful conference for her
I am more confident as each day passes that we will have a successful friendly divorce from the EU as the game has changed since the election of Trump.
As far as UKIP is concerned I can see an end to their popularity and the Lib Dems should continue to improve as the remain party. I do not expect UKIP to win Stoke
John M I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.
I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
I'm obviously not communicating very clearly this afternoon - oh to be @Cyclefree!
Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.
There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.
I think Isam was making a joke (and a good one). Irony meters need refurbishing all round.
Sorry, a bit tired, and have come over all earnest.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Absolutely spot on ... www.twitter.com/alexmassie/status/827501453820432384
Good article.
The comments are infested with American Trumpers, practically all of whom have missed the whole point of the article in a spectacular way. More spectacular than an Olympic opening ceremony.
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.
The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.
I completely agree.
I think there's an element of snibbishness operating in some punditry - they think of the WWC as a seething mass of dimwit people who read the Sun and vote for any skinhead who comes along. In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-trravelled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things. Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke, and I don't think voters will instantly gravitate to him.
You can't get more patronising than "man talks in northern accent, so will appeal to the plebs that vote Labour currently". If he wins in Stoke, it will not be because of his background, but because voters there have taken a view on the message that they want to send having considered the options available to them. Len McCluskey is as representative of working class opinion as is Paul Nuttall, and it is unlikely that either has more than a minority of supporters among such a broad demographic.
Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.
If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:
Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.
we need Avery back to lighten us up a bit
He was a top bloke who also knew Osborne was brilliant.
If Avery ever met tim, I think the whole universe would reset.
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused. Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
I see Mr Cole, in that case I do have some sympathy for the returning officer, the property was at least being rented by Nutall with the claimed intention of staying there, I don’t think it’s up to the RO to wander along and peek through the curtains to confirm he’s moved in.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
I would be concerned for him if I was a friend or family. Many men do not long survive the death of their spouse, especially when they have been together as long as Ken and his wife were.
I may not agree with his politics but I do wish him well.
Agreed. Nuttall is guilty of the usual Kipper incompetence and ineptitude but should be beaten fair and square. Labour are just frit – and will look weak as hell if they prevent his election on a technicality. That all said, Ukip really need to sharpen up – they are utter dimwits and similar blunders have happened before.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.
He's right.
One of the things the coalition can be really proud of is the changing the rehabilitation period.
I said the other day I've gone back to doing volunteer work helping the families of those in prison/just out of prison, you'd be surprised by the restrictions placed on them.
Most banks and insurance companies won't touch them, so they have to go to insurance companies who specialise for those with criminal records, who charge 5x the normal rate.
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
If he had put his address in Bootle at the same time as having rented out this house in Stoke, it is about 1.02 that Labour would have tried to make something of that as well.
As they would be well entitled to. The question is which option is worse.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Donald Trump would say we need to stop Irishmen coming over to the mainland until we've worked out what the hell is going on.
A Royal Marine from Northern Ireland has pleaded guilty to offences related to dissident republican terrorism, including bomb-making and storing weapons.
Ciarán Maxwell, 31, appeared via video link at the Old Bailey in London.
He was arrested in Somerset last August after the the discovery of two dissident republican arms dumps near Larne, County Antrim.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
He really looked ill as his cherished dream of the EU disappeared. He is a conviction politician and has to be admired but it is said all political careers end in failure. Maybe he had that in mind
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
Let's try to get some convictions for that first before we start worrying about what to do with them!
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
Let's try to get some convictions for that first before we start worrying about what to do with them!
Donald Trump would say we need to stop Irishmen coming over to the mainland until we've worked out what the hell is going on.
A Royal Marine from Northern Ireland has pleaded guilty to offences related to dissident republican terrorism, including bomb-making and storing weapons.
Ciarán Maxwell, 31, appeared via video link at the Old Bailey in London.
He was arrested in Somerset last August after the the discovery of two dissident republican arms dumps near Larne, County Antrim.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.
Sky having to change their story as Donald Tusk publically acknowledges TM position to help in the EU - US negotiations and Estonia positively supporting TM. This is the reality and it is no surprise that the Baltic States are supportive
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
He really looked ill as his cherished dream of the EU disappeared. He is a conviction politician and has to be admired but it is said all political careers end in failure. Maybe he had that in mind
Well I wish him well whatever. He is entitled to like the EU. From his appearance and speech the other day, I think the Conservatives should look after him. Plus the title of his book is great!
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
Pages 8 and 9.
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.
TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.
Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?
Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused. Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
I am not convinced it is the RO's duty to investigate the truth of representations made in nomination papers; especially not on the basis of what was "widely known".
Any agent who does not check his candidate's Nomination Papers should face a firing squad and not one with dummy bullets.
I cannot believe a Returning Officer is not expected to check the validity of Nomination Papers as soon as they are submitted. I have a fine collection of papers from various Returning Officers telling me whether I stand validly nominated or not albeit for council elections - I always have been so far.
What I suppose OKC means is that in making those checks the RO must assume the information submitted is correct ... CONT
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
I frequently disagree with his conclusions and even analysis, but I appreciate that he does seem genuinely thoughtful in what he does, and that he is capable of being critical to his own side.
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.
Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?
I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.
He really looked ill as his cherished dream of the EU disappeared. He is a conviction politician and has to be admired but it is said all political careers end in failure. Maybe he had that in mind
Well I wish him well whatever. He is entitled to like the EU. From his appearance and speech the other day, I think the Conservatives should look after him. Plus the title of his book is great!
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.
He's right.
One of the things the coalition can be really proud of is the changing the rehabilitation period.
I said the other day I've gone back to doing volunteer work helping the families of those in prison/just out of prison, you'd be surprised by the restrictions placed on them.
Most banks and insurance companies won't touch them, so they have to go to insurance companies who specialise for those with criminal records, who charge 5x the normal rate.
Which leads to all sorts of problems.
True. Many years ago I had dealings in an area where a significant number of people had (mostly minor) criminal records. It was difficult for anyone in that area to get HP or other credit, or other than bottom-of-the-heap employment.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
Pages 8 and 9.
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
I would also like to see far greater and more aggressive seizure of assets - particularly for the sorts of high level and corporate fraud that leaves large numbers of victims. I think that would be an even greater deterrent than prison.
Donald Trump would say we need to stop Irishmen coming over to the mainland until we've worked out what the hell is going on.
A Royal Marine from Northern Ireland has pleaded guilty to offences related to dissident republican terrorism, including bomb-making and storing weapons.
Ciarán Maxwell, 31, appeared via video link at the Old Bailey in London.
He was arrested in Somerset last August after the the discovery of two dissident republican arms dumps near Larne, County Antrim.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
Pages 8 and 9.
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
I would also like to see far greater and more aggressive seizure of assets - particularly for the sorts of high level and corporate fraud that leaves large numbers of victims. I think that would be an even greater deterrent than prison.
Completely agree - anything you've given away to any related persons (Especially husbands/wives) should be seized and auctioned. Including the roof over your head.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.
He's right.
One of the things the coalition can be really proud of is the changing the rehabilitation period.
I said the other day I've gone back to doing volunteer work helping the families of those in prison/just out of prison, you'd be surprised by the restrictions placed on them.
Most banks and insurance companies won't touch them, so they have to go to insurance companies who specialise for those with criminal records, who charge 5x the normal rate.
Which leads to all sorts of problems.
True. Many years ago I had dealings in an area where a significant number of people had (mostly minor) criminal records. It was difficult for anyone in that area to get HP or other credit, or other than bottom-of-the-heap employment.
I had a friend who received a criminal record, though non custodial sentence for a minor non vehicle offence.
He told his employer, they were fine with it, he informed his car insurer, they cancelled his policy there and then, the only people willing to insure him wanted 3 grand per annum, with 1500 pounds paid up front.
His previous insurer only charged him £350 for the entire year.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
Pages 8 and 9.
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
I would also like to see far greater and more aggressive seizure of assets - particularly for the sorts of high level and corporate fraud that leaves large numbers of victims. I think that would be an even greater deterrent than prison.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.
Yep. Same with Dave. If only they had campaigned for issues that they didn't believe in, not to say strongly disagreed with, they would have been supreme politicians
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
Comments
Lab 26%
UKIP 12%
LD 11%
Others 11%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XMW6Z_Oq38
They have to be consecutively negotiated (to say nothing of consecutively implemented as you mention) because we can't negotiate a new trade deal with Tonga until we and Tonga knows what our trade deal with the EU will look like.
Now of course as others have said, this is only a matter of time and of course the UK will be free from the feel of not having sovereignty for ever after. But there are politics in this also and I'm not sure how it will play. It will be a long period of uncertainty whatever happens and the UK's NPV will suffer accordingly.
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.
I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.
https://www.bet365.com/?&cb=1032554163#/AC/B129/C20515797/D1/E32105392/F2/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
And in the case you link to, it's not that he was misleading voters but that he was attempting to serve on a public body which he was not entitled to. We have to take such things seriously. Prison may be a touch OTT, but only a touch.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.
edit: link: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/141784/Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election-LGEW.pdf
The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?
Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.
And it was deliberately an address of someone else, not just one where he was moving into it.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/what-makes-good-prime-minister-sir-anthony-seldons-top-tips
Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.
There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/owen-jones-i-dont-enjoy-protesting-i-do-it-because-the-stakes-are-so-high-a3457501.html
It's odd, but that's how it is.
Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....
I don't think it was widely known, or Labour could have objected earlier. I think it was only something Nuttall said that tipped people off. IIRC.
Mr isam, of course, opponents would have made capital out of his carpet-bagging, but ’twas ever thus and happens to all such, of whatever party.
And as it is he’s probably got the worst of all possible worlds.
Listening to the Malta News conference on the BBC, Donald Tusk recognised TM's contribution and there was quite a nuance stance in favour of the UK. This along with the Spanish agreeing that the ex pats situation is a priority, it looks like it was quite a successful conference for her
I am more confident as each day passes that we will have a successful friendly divorce from the EU as the game has changed since the election of Trump.
As far as UKIP is concerned I can see an end to their popularity and the Lib Dems should continue to improve as the remain party. I do not expect UKIP to win Stoke
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9NdN4a6D_g
The comments are infested with American Trumpers, practically all of whom have missed the whole point of the article in a spectacular way. More spectacular than an Olympic opening ceremony.
He truly understood the prison system wasn't working, that it shouldn't be exclusively about punishment, but rehabilitation as well.
I may not agree with his politics but I do wish him well.
One of the things the coalition can be really proud of is the changing the rehabilitation period.
I said the other day I've gone back to doing volunteer work helping the families of those in prison/just out of prison, you'd be surprised by the restrictions placed on them.
Most banks and insurance companies won't touch them, so they have to go to insurance companies who specialise for those with criminal records, who charge 5x the normal rate.
Which leads to all sorts of problems.
A Royal Marine from Northern Ireland has pleaded guilty to offences related to dissident republican terrorism, including bomb-making and storing weapons.
Ciarán Maxwell, 31, appeared via video link at the Old Bailey in London.
He was arrested in Somerset last August after the the discovery of two dissident republican arms dumps near Larne, County Antrim.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38859531
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Fraud_bribery_and_money_laundering_offences_-_Definitive_guideline.pdf
I cannot believe a Returning Officer is not expected to check the validity of Nomination Papers as soon as they are submitted. I have a fine collection of papers from various Returning Officers telling me whether I stand validly nominated or not albeit for council elections - I always have been so far.
What I suppose OKC means is that in making those checks the RO must assume the information submitted is correct ... CONT
He told his employer, they were fine with it, he informed his car insurer, they cancelled his policy there and then, the only people willing to insure him wanted 3 grand per annum, with 1500 pounds paid up front.
His previous insurer only charged him £350 for the entire year.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test.
The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday.
President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!"
But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.