In summary, between last Summer and now, quite a lot of men have moved from Remain to Leave, from Corbyn to May and from Labour to Conservative in a consistent manner. Whereas amongst women, there is an altogether different picture in which support for Labour has softened much less than amongst men, and there have been swings away from May (but not towards Corbyn) and from Leave to Remain. I would contend that the overall weakening of Labour in the polls since Theresa May became Prime Minister has, therefore, been primarily the result of a collapse in Labour support amongst men.
Women, by contrast, appear more inclined to support Labour to begin with, and are more sceptical both of the Prime Minister and of her Government - albeit that this seems to have resulted merely in a slower decline in Labour support amongst women rather than an actual increase. All the same, I reckon that the only reason Labour's polling floor seems to be somewhere around 25% rather than 20% is because an important cohort of female voters is less inclined than men to switch to the Tories. Although the tables don't sub-divide the gender splits into age groups, my theory is that Labour is being kept from falling into the abyss by significantly higher support amongst women than men in that portion of the electorate aged under 50.
CONT ... Checking the Nomination Papers are factually correct is the agent's job. Checking the proposer, seconder and 10 assentors are real people on the electoral role is definitely the RO's job.
I had the debate with equally electorally knowledgeable bods yesterday and they seemed to think Nuttall was safe as there isn't a residency rule as in local government.
I'm far from so sure and certainly think there is a case to answer. I seem to remember though that whilst Nuttall could be removed by a petition - if elected it is his agent who stands to serve time should the allegation be upheld.
However, others will remember better than me that when a Blair Babe (male) exceeded his expenses limit he claimed ignorance with incompetence and got away with it. I wonder if Nuttall duly elected would be allowed to hold on to his seat as not in the public interest to remove him. But compare Winchester and the 2 votes.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.
Yep. Same with Dave. If only they had campaigned for issues that they didn't believe in, not to say strongly disagreed with, they would have been supreme politicians
Although with Dave, you never got a feel for what he did agree and disagree with about Europe. It always seemed to be a moving feast - always moving away from him....
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Unless they are the 36% who don't vote.....in which case, Labour is sunk.
Just skyped my older daughter. She's ten, and amusing, in east Finchley. I'm in Bangkok.
She made me laugh and reminded me how much I love my kids. I felt I was there with her.
We bemoan the state of the world but it's too easy to forget marvelous things like Skype didn't exist fifteen years ago. Thirty years ago it was a scheduled phone call, no sense of human contact. Before that, letters which took months to arrive.
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
This is what I keep saying. It's probably not great to be anything other than charismatic megafauna in terms of the Animal Kingdom, but if you're a human...best time ever.
We can do things that would have been deemed magic (shades of Arthur C. Clarke's famous dictum) only thirty years ago.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
snip
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.
For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'd add serious fraud to that list.
I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500
That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.
Pages 8 and 9.
Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.
I would also like to see far greater and more aggressive seizure of assets - particularly for the sorts of high level and corporate fraud that leaves large numbers of victims. I think that would be an even greater deterrent than prison.
Completely agree - anything you've given away to any related persons (Especially husbands/wives) should be seized and auctioned. Including the roof over your head.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.
He's right.
One of the things the coalition can be really proud of is the changing the rehabilitation period.
I said the other day I've gone back to doing volunteer work helping the families of those in prison/just out of prison, you'd be surprised by the restrictions placed on them.
Most banks and insurance companies won't touch them, so they have to go to insurance companies who specialise for those with criminal records, who charge 5x the normal rate.
Which leads to all sorts of problems.
True. Many years ago I had dealings in an area where a significant number of people had (mostly minor) criminal records. It was difficult for anyone in that area to get HP or other credit, or other than bottom-of-the-heap employment.
I had a friend who received a criminal record, though non custodial sentence for a minor non vehicle offence.
He told his employer, they were fine with it, he informed his car insurer, they cancelled his policy there and then, the only people willing to insure him wanted 3 grand per annum, with 1500 pounds paid up front.
His previous insurer only charged him £350 for the entire year.
I would be supportive of not having to disclose prison time (apart from violence and sexual offences). Once you've done your time in theory you've cleared your record, and shouldn't be barred operating in society. However in this era of 'big data' how possible that would be, when databases of your entire life exist.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing.
At various stages on PB, I've been called a lefty and a far right Tory.
It serves a purpose though, lets me no that person throwing the accusation is a bit thick and not worth engaging with.
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
I frequently disagree with his conclusions and even analysis, but I appreciate that he does seem genuinely thoughtful in what he does, and that he is capable of being critical to his own side.
Owen Jones is the only lefty pundit that, in my televisual experience, has made Andrew Neil look uncomfortable. He's sharp, telegenic, well informed, and persuasive. He's also a plausible writer with a crisp style in polemics. If the left has a future in fhe U.K.- and it surely does - it is people like him.
I expect his dalliance with Corbyn will be forgiven as youthful foolery, which it was.
You reckon? Neil tends to slap him around whenever they are on TV together.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
It's not historically out of line as far as I can see: the closest YouGov poll to the same point in the last parliament with a best PM question was 25th Jan 2012, which had Cameron 41, Miliband 17, Clegg 5, DK 37.
I think these figures include people who don't give a result that counts in the main VI question so they're probably mostly nonvoters.
He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.
It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.
Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?
Not quite.
For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.
Community service is the best option.
.
s.
.
I would be supportive of not having to disclose prison time (apart from violence and sexual offences). Once you've done your time in theory you've cleared your record, and shouldn't be barred operating in society. However in this era of 'big data' how possible that would be, when databases of your entire life exist.
No wonder re-offending rates are high.
Tell me about it.
He needed his car to get to work, had his parents not lent him the money to pay the insurer, he would have been out of work and the taxpayer would have lost his tax contributions and had to pay out his JSA.
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.
Yep. Same with Dave. If only they had campaigned for issues that they didn't believe in, not to say strongly disagreed with, they would have been supreme politicians
Although with Dave, you never got a feel for what he did agree and disagree with about Europe. It always seemed to be a moving feast - always moving away from him....
Yes, if the UK had an honorary president he'd be the best candidate.
I think he's said that he believes in a confederation, not a US of E.
Anyway, Europhilia prevails in the centre of politics ... Labour right, Lib.Dems and Tory left. Ted Heath believed in a US of E. Possibly so does Michael Heseltine. 55% of Tory MPs stated an intention to vote Remain.
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
Apart from Remainers, of course!
Including ex-Remainers! More and more of them are reconsidering their folly each day - I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
Mr. M, Hannibal Barca was a better general than Julius Caesar.
I don't really hold with comparisons of non-contemporary military leaders . I admire both, in different ways and for different things. Oops, all earnest again. I know you're only trolling TSE .
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
I frequently disagree with his conclusions and even analysis, but I appreciate that he does seem genuinely thoughtful in what he does, and that he is capable of being critical to his own side.
His biggest failure is his enthusiasm for the protest as opposed to the hard graft of working for his cause to seek election of MPs who back him. He has never really grown up and way too many youngsters on the left are the same. They want a quick win so they can feel better about themselves. Party workers are the ones who get the real job done.
In summary, between last Summer and now, quite a lot of men have moved from Remain to Leave, from Corbyn to May and from Labour to Conservative in a consistent manner. Whereas amongst women, there is an altogether different picture in which support for Labour has softened much less than amongst men, and there have been swings away from May (but not towards Corbyn) and from Leave to Remain. I would contend that the overall weakening of Labour in the polls since Theresa May became Prime Minister has, therefore, been primarily the result of a collapse in Labour support amongst men.
Women, by contrast, appear more inclined to support Labour to begin with, and are more sceptical both of the Prime Minister and of her Government - albeit that this seems to have resulted merely in a slower decline in Labour support amongst women rather than an actual increase. All the same, I reckon that the only reason Labour's polling floor seems to be somewhere around 25% rather than 20% is because an important cohort of female voters is less inclined than men to switch to the Tories. Although the tables don't sub-divide the gender splits into age groups, my theory is that Labour is being kept from falling into the abyss by significantly higher support amongst women than men in that portion of the electorate aged under 50.
Women are more collaborative and fond of partnership. No wonder the future is feminine.
I would be supportive of not having to disclose prison time (apart from violence and sexual offences). Once you've done your time in theory you've cleared your record, and shouldn't be barred operating in society. ...
This is strange reasoning. Presumably you make an exception for violent and sexual offences because of the potential harm if the offender re-offends. None of us would want a convicted paedophile teaching in the local primary school.
But, by exactly the same token, why should we accept a convicted thief working in a small company accounts department or in a job where he enters our homes?
I don't think there's any simple solution to this. Although I'm very conscious of the difficulties people with criminal records have, I'm not sure that pretending that the past didn't happen is a good response.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
Apart from Remainers, of course!
Including ex-Remainers! More and more of them are reconsidering their folly each day - I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
Remainders are confident people, who look forward to making things better for all. Given the disaster that has struck this country; the apparent decision to go back to 50’s, if not the 30’s, it is to be expected that while we regret the decision we make the best of it and get on. Seems to me that while it would be good to re-run the referendum and get a sensible answer, sxince that’s by no means guaranteed, the best that can be made should be. Not happy about it, though.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
Oh goody, I reckon that in an all-out nuclear war I will die over a period of not terribly comfortable days as collateral damage from a strike on plymouth on the off chance one of the trident subs is in for its mot. It will be massively consoling to be able to think that those Iranians had it coming.
And I am so far to the left that my two favourite pieces of legislation would be the repeal of the Hunting Act and the abolition of IHT.
The future's neither masculine nor feminine. The idea a gender is inherently superior is tosh. As for women being softer or kinder, consider the women in the article I linked to. Or think of major British female leaders: Thatcher, Elizabeth I, Boudicca. Which one of those was noted for being soft and pacific?
Edited extra bit: sorry, half-asleep and slightly misread your post. Nevertheless, the women I mentioned (both here and in the article) were not especially collaborative and fond of partnership. Indeed, Olympias forced Adea to commit suicide. Roxanne had her fellow widows of Alexander the Great pre-emptively murdered just in case they were pregnant.
I think I can offer something towards an explanation for the LD success in local government elections and how that relates to brexit. ( It doesn't.)
All the calculations offered here are percentages of votes cast and I think in the three last night none of the turnouts exceeded 35%. That should not be ignored.
We know that the LDs have excellent records of voter inclination in the seats they hold and many they used to hold or aspired to hold. We also know they have a good body of people who will ring up 100 people either on election day or in the days before. On an average by-election Thursday that group can be used to ring clear LDs from the target ward perhaps 5 or 6 times. Against that an Independent has no chance and it is pretty difficult for the other parties either as their machines do not work that way.
The greatest interest last night was the ward where they got 4% - no database, therefore no telephoning, therefore no overclocking of the LD vote.
The LD machine achieved gold with Sarah Olney but has also achieved many silvers. However, there is a capacity issue and they will not be able to do the same carpet bombing at the May council elections.
Here in South Lakeland there are hardly any council elections with less than 50% turnout as both viable candidates will be mounting a massive GOTV. It is a fact that I lost my county seat four years ago with more votes than the winning candidate in over 70 of the 84 divisions.
Once upon a time a candidate could get elected with one election address and one other hand-out leaflet. Most of the candidates who have stood in by-elections this last year seem to have imagined that was still true. If there is an LD anywhere near they will learn to their cost that that is no longer the case.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
@View_From_Cumbria - all well and good for a couple of by elections, but hard to replicate across the country on one day. @IOS comments about Labour's ground game should serve as a warning on this
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
It seems that other women are the first to suss that there's less to her than meets the eye.
Mr. Glenn, you might just as well say that men are more willing to give a woman a chance at the top job. Not sure either's especially useful (suspect party loyalties are more important).
When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.
Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.
Yep. Same with Dave. If only they had campaigned for issues that they didn't believe in, not to say strongly disagreed with, they would have been supreme politicians
Although with Dave, you never got a feel for what he did agree and disagree with about Europe. It always seemed to be a moving feast - always moving away from him....
Yes, if the UK had an honorary president he'd be the best candidate.
I think he's said that he believes in a confederation, not a US of E.
Anyway, Europhilia prevails in the centre of politics ... Labour right, Lib.Dems and Tory left. Ted Heath believed in a US of E. Possibly so does Michael Heseltine. 55% of Tory MPs stated an intention to vote Remain.
They are no longer the centre. They are now the elitist fringe who think that democracy is over-rated and you have to tell the population what to think.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
It seems that other women are the first to suss that there's less to her than meets the eye.
Are we entering Scottish sub sample territory here?
I would be supportive of not having to disclose prison time (apart from violence and sexual offences). Once you've done your time in theory you've cleared your record, and shouldn't be barred operating in society. ...
This is strange reasoning. Presumably you make an exception for violent and sexual offences because of the potential harm if the offender re-offends. None of us would want a convicted paedophile teaching in the local primary school.
But, by exactly the same token, why should we accept a convicted thief working in a small company accounts department or in a job where he enters our homes?
I don't think there's any simple solution to this. Although I'm very conscious of the difficulties people with criminal records have, I'm not sure that pretending that the past didn't happen is a good response.
One of the few good things I have to say about evangelical religion is how it can offer people a psychological framework to make a clean break from their past sins - and give people who have screwed up some level of social legitimacy in their attempt to live a different, honest life.
That opportunity to *break with the past* is something that our secular justice system should seek to mimic, IMO. Too often the database culture kicks people when they're down and keeps stamping them on their heads.
I think I can offer something towards an explanation for the LD success in local government elections and how that relates to brexit. ( It doesn't.)
All the calculations offered here are percentages of votes cast and I think in the three last night none of the turnouts exceeded 35%. That should not be ignored.
We know that the LDs have excellent records of voter inclination in the seats they hold and many they used to hold or aspired to hold. We also know they have a good body of people who will ring up 100 people either on election day or in the days before. On an average by-election Thursday that group can be used to ring clear LDs from the target ward perhaps 5 or 6 times. Against that an Independent has no chance and it is pretty difficult for the other parties either as their machines do not work that way.
The greatest interest last night was the ward where they got 4% - no database, therefore no telephoning, therefore no overclocking of the LD vote.
The LD machine achieved gold with Sarah Olney but has also achieved many silvers. However, there is a capacity issue and they will not be able to do the same carpet bombing at the May council elections.
Here in South Lakeland there are hardly any council elections with less than 50% turnout as both viable candidates will be mounting a massive GOTV. It is a fact that I lost my county seat four years ago with more votes than the winning candidate in over 70 of the 84 divisions.
Once upon a time a candidate could get elected with one election address and one other hand-out leaflet. Most of the candidates who have stood in by-elections this last year seem to have imagined that was still true. If there is an LD anywhere near they will learn to their cost that that is no longer the case.
Broadly coincides with my own view. Very effective and enthusiastic campaigning in areas where they have strength and/or local knowledge, which is still far from everywhere, combined with effects of low turnout in an election regarded by many voters as relatively unimportant and/or an opportunity for harmless protest. And they won't be able to campaign strongly everywhere at once in a full round of council elections, let alone a General Election.
The performance in the 2016 English locals was unspectacular - modest increase in seats, and actually a small decline in vote share - but this May's polls are largely in the shire counties and the Lib Dems may do better in those, rebuilding from a much-depleted base. But I'd be surprised if there were the kinds of sweeping gains needed to turn big chunks of the map yellow again.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Better that than an inch wide and a mile deep. Just ask Mr Corbyn.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Better that than an inch wide and a mile deep. Just ask Mr Corbyn.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Better that than an inch wide and a mile deep. Just ask Mr Corbyn.
Well of course.
In fact, I'm starting to think Jezza's support is more like half an inch wide and a few feet deep these days...
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
In the 'calling someone an ape in heels is just being bitchy' universe, I'd guess.
One of the few good things I have to say about evangelical religion is how it can offer people a psychological framework to make a clean break from their past sins - and give people who have screwed up some level of social legitimacy in their attempt to live a different, honest life.
It's something that our secular justice system should seek to mimic, IMO.
Some of the charities working with offenders do a good job on that, I think.
However, it's extremely labour-intensive and hard to scale up.
Part of the answer is definitely to try to keep people out of prison in the first place, as TSE says. I think we should also roll back on the use of criminal penalties for things which do not involve dishonesty but are breaking of regulations.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
One of the few good things I have to say about evangelical religion is how it can offer people a psychological framework to make a clean break from their past sins - and give people who have screwed up some level of social legitimacy in their attempt to live a different, honest life.
It's something that our secular justice system should seek to mimic, IMO.
Some of the charities working with offenders do a good job on that, I think.
However, it's extremely labour-intensive and hard to scale up.
Part of the answer is definitely to try to keep people out of prison in the first place, as TSE says. I think we should also roll back on the use of criminal penalties for things which do not involve dishonesty but are breaking of regulations.
Something similar to the US's definition of moral turpitude?
Justin 124 I disagree. it does show that UKIP are not winning anywhere - in essence, LEAVE is not a clear brand but I feel REMAIN probably is...the Lib Dems seem to be picking up a core vote that I can only think is linked to the "not leave"......so I would stand by my point. The media only talks about the parties in terms of one thing - BREXIT, that must have a role...along with hospitals. libraries, creches etc which all have a bearing in locals
Both are clear brands but the Lib Dems are the only game in town as far as the most committed Remainers are concerned in the same way that pre referendum UKIP represented anyone whos political stance was determined almost entirely on dislike the EU.
On that basis Remain voters in the other Rotherham ward would have turned out for the LibDem candidate. As it was, they polled 4% and came in 8th!
It would be interesting to know what the LDs are putting on their leaflets is these local bye-elections. Are they trumpeting their pro-EU stance or is it potholes and dog mess?
CONT ... Checking the Nomination Papers are factually correct is the agent's job. Checking the proposer, seconder and 10 assentors are real people on the electoral role is definitely the RO's job.
I had the debate with equally electorally knowledgeable bods yesterday and they seemed to think Nuttall was safe as there isn't a residency rule as in local government.
I'm far from so sure and certainly think there is a case to answer. I seem to remember though that whilst Nuttall could be removed by a petition - if elected it is his agent who stands to serve time should the allegation be upheld.
However, others will remember better than me that when a Blair Babe (male) exceeded his expenses limit he claimed ignorance with incompetence and got away with it. I wonder if Nuttall duly elected would be allowed to hold on to his seat as not in the public interest to remove him. But compare Winchester and the 2 votes.
Yep as I mentioned yesterday Fiona Jones and her agent Des Wicher were tried for vastly exceeding their expenses limit and claimed it was because the law was tool difficult to understand. They got away with it even though ignorance is supposed to be no defence.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
AV?
As constant as the Northern Star!
The Northern Star was an insurance company that was purchased by Bishopasgate/ Fortis/ Ageas and no longer exists.
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
I frequently disagree with his conclusions and even analysis, but I appreciate that he does seem genuinely thoughtful in what he does, and that he is capable of being critical to his own side.
Owen Jones is the only lefty pundit that, in my televisual experience, has made Andrew Neil look uncomfortable. He's sharp, telegenic, well informed, and persuasive. He's also a plausible writer with a crisp style in polemics. If the left has a future in fhe U.K.- and it surely does - it is people like him.
I expect his dalliance with Corbyn will be forgiven as youthful foolery, which it was.
You reckon? Neil tends to slap him around whenever they are on TV together.
I'm going on the one and only encounter I've seen. And if I'm honest Owen Jones won it. He had better facts to hand and expressed them more lucidly.
Perhaps Andrew Neil (who is generally super sharp and well briefed and wins most arguments) was having a bad day. Nonetheless it was striking.
Jones is way too easily upset. I remember him flouncing off the Sky Paper Review because he was unhappy that the journalist wasn't putting all the emphasis on the fact that the Orlando attack victims were gay. The journalist was emphasising the fact that the attack was terrible because these were 50 people who had been killed and Jones thought he was playing down the fact they were 50 gay people. He wasn't in any way but he refused to go along with Jones' line that this was a more terrible crime because the victims were gay.
Good for her. Principles before profits it would seem for JK.
Principles after profit, surely? She already has their money...
J.K. Rowling Verified account @jk_rowling Well, the fumes from the DVDs might be toxic and I've still got your money, so by all means borrow my lighter.
Rowling’s is pointing out the paucity of their argument, ‘we don’t like what you say, so we’ll burn your books. – Utterly juvenile behaviour.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
AV?
As constant as the Northern Star!
The Northern Star was an insurance company that was purchased by Bishopasgate/ Fortis/ Ageas and no longer exists.
So, farewell then Owen Jones. The final media rat leaves Corbyn's sinking ship:
A “failure of communication” on the Left is something Jones is painfully aware of. He admits he’s guilty of “chin-stroking”. “The left, myself included, has failed to get its message across and the populist right has benefited.” He is still a firm Labour supporter but if there was a leadership election he says: “The Left has failed badly. I’d find it hard to vote for Corbyn.”
I frequently disagree with his conclusions and even analysis, but I appreciate that he does seem genuinely thoughtful in what he does, and that he is capable of being critical to his own side.
Owen Jones is the only lefty pundit that, in my televisual experience, has made Andrew Neil look uncomfortable. He's sharp, telegenic, well informed, and persuasive. He's also a plausible writer with a crisp style in polemics. If the left has a future in fhe U.K.- and it surely does - it is people like him.
I expect his dalliance with Corbyn will be forgiven as youthful foolery, which it was.
You reckon? Neil tends to slap him around whenever they are on TV together.
I'm going on the one and only encounter I've seen. And if I'm honest Owen Jones won it. He had better facts to hand and expressed them more lucidly.
Perhaps Andrew Neil (who is generally super sharp and well briefed and wins most arguments) was having a bad day. Nonetheless it was striking.
Jones is way too easily upset. I remember him flouncing off the Sky Paper Review because he was unhappy that the journalist wasn't putting all the emphasis on the fact that the Orlando attack victims were gay. The journalist was emphasising the fact that the attack was terrible because these were 50 people who had been killed and Jones thought he was playing down the fact they were 50 gay people. He wasn't in any way but he refused to go along with Jones' line that this was a more terrible crime because the victims were gay.
Good for her. Principles before profits it would seem for JK.
Principles after profit, surely? She already has their money...
J.K. Rowling Verified account @jk_rowling Well, the fumes from the DVDs might be toxic and I've still got your money, so by all means borrow my lighter.
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
Apart from Remainers, of course!
Including ex-Remainers! More and more of them are reconsidering their folly each day - I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
Remainders are confident people, who look forward to making things better for all. Given the disaster that has struck this country; the apparent decision to go back to 50’s, if not the 30’s, it is to be expected that while we regret the decision we make the best of it and get on. Seems to me that while it would be good to re-run the referendum and get a sensible answer, sxince that’s by no means guaranteed, the best that can be made should be. Not happy about it, though.
Remainders are such confident people that they think we can't survive without clinging to the skirts of the EU just in case the big nasty world is mean to us.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing.
At various stages on PB, I've been called a lefty and a far right Tory.
It serves a purpose though, lets me no that person throwing the accusation is a bit thick and not worth engaging with.
I guess that it's being called a Liberal Democrat which stung the most though....
Initial indications were that the man, who was hovering between life and death, was an Egyptian who arrived in France at the end of January, a source close to the investigation said.
So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....
That massive 36% don't know is interesting, and reminds of Meeks article on the current polling flatters to decieve. Labour is not dead with the right leader.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
As we keep hearing, yet it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
Indeed.
A mile wide, an inch deep, and stagnant.
It's like some people have forgotten Ed Miliband.
"Ed is still polling in the high thirties! People must be deaf to the criticism!"
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
Apart from Remainers, of course!
Including ex-Remainers! More and more of them are reconsidering their folly each day - I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
Remainders are confident people, who look forward to making things better for all. Given the disaster that has struck this country; the apparent decision to go back to 50’s, if not the 30’s, it is to be expected that while we regret the decision we make the best of it and get on. Seems to me that while it would be good to re-run the referendum and get a sensible answer, sxince that’s by no means guaranteed, the best that can be made should be. Not happy about it, though.
Remainders are such confident people that they think we can't survive without clinging to the skirts of the EU just in case the big nasty world is mean to us.
Not clinging to skirts; participating in a grand peacemaking, people-supporting, international co-operative project.
Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.
Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?
Golly! But in that case residency is required in order to stand for election, rather than just a useful vote-getter.
And it was deliberately an address of someone else, not just one where he was moving into it.
I think the rules are that you have to be living at the address on your nomination paper when you sign it/hand it in. Not move there afterwards. THe form asks for your "home address" not for where you will be moving to for the election. It is an offence to knowingly put something on the nomination which isn't true.
The sum of human happiness increases daily, for MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD. We need to hold this thought.
Apart from Remainers, of course!
Including ex-Remainers! More and more of them are reconsidering their folly each day - I say unto you, that likewise joy shall be in heaven over one sinner that repenteth, more than over ninety and nine just persons, which need no repentance.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
Remainders are confident people, who look forward to making things better for all. Given the disaster that has struck this country; the apparent decision to go back to 50’s, if not the 30’s, it is to be expected that while we regret the decision we make the best of it and get on. Seems to me that while it would be good to re-run the referendum and get a sensible answer, sxince that’s by no means guaranteed, the best that can be made should be. Not happy about it, though.
Remainders are such confident people that they think we can't survive without clinging to the skirts of the EU just in case the big nasty world is mean to us.
Not clinging to skirts; participating in a grand peacemaking, people-supporting, international co-operative project.
That was evident in the fuck up of the Commonwealth Games. Wonderful amazing family oriented culture, but if there isn't enough organisation in a country of that size and resources to stop bridges falling over and dogs shitting in the pool when the eyes of the world are on them, it's clear they're never going to take over the world.
That would be a very clever analogy if pretending you want something less than you do wasn't an established part of bargaining wherever price is flexible.
The Trump administration is imposing sanctions on Iran following its recent ballistic missile test. The US Treasury Department announced the measures against 13 people and a dozen companies on Friday. President Donald Trump tweeted earlier: "Iran is playing with fire - they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" But Iran has said it will not yield to "useless" American threats from "an inexperienced person".
We are not going to get through another 3 yrs 11 mths of this sort of shit without disaster striking.
No one forced Iran to fire that missile. It seems that lefties, like yourself don't seem to understand that actions have consequences.
In which universe is Ishmael a leftie?
It's all very confusing. Roger made me laugh this morning, I missed Isam's joke this afternoon, Ishmael is a leftie. Where are life's certainties?
AV?
As constant as the Northern Star!
The Northern Star was an insurance company that was purchased by Bishopasgate/ Fortis/ Ageas and no longer exists.
Ah, is that what Ceaser was referring to?
Only in literature, I think. Anyway - I must away "The clock hath stricken three"
Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.
That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?
Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".
That would be a very clever analogy if pretending you want something less than you do wasn't an established part of bargaining wherever price is flexible.
But we keep getting told, by both sides, that the "price" of being in the single market is not flexible.
Comments
The gender gap in this YouGov is very interesting, and it doesn't just apply to Brexit either.
I've dug out a similar survey carried out by the same company last August, and compared the results. Some highlights are as follows:
Headline VI:
August:
All: Con 38%, Lab 30%, Men: Con 38%, Lab 28%, Women: Con 37%, Lab 33%
January:
All: Con 40%, Lab 26%, Men: Con 44%, Lab 21%, Women: Con 37%, Lab 30%
Best PM:
August:
All: May 51%, Corbyn 19%, Men: May: 51%, Corbyn 20%, Women: May 51%, Corbyn 18%
January:
All: May 48%, Corbyn 16%, Men: May 53%, Corbyn 15%, Women: May: 43%, Corbyn 17%
Best for the economy:
August:
All: Con 35%, Lab 17%, Men: Con 39%, Lab 16%, Women: Con 32%, Lab 17%
January:
All: Con 35%, Lab 15%, Men: Con 44%, Lab 14%, Women: Con 27%, Lab 16%
Brexit:
August:
All: Right 46%, Wrong 43%, Men: Right 46%, Wrong 43%, Women: Right 46%, Wrong 43%
January:
All: Right 45%, Wrong 42%, Men: Right 50%, Wrong 38%, Women: Right 41%, Wrong 46%
Tables:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jmwlsfmd1k/TimesResults_160817_VI_Trackers.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3hy4qn55vq/TimesResults_170131_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
In summary, between last Summer and now, quite a lot of men have moved from Remain to Leave, from Corbyn to May and from Labour to Conservative in a consistent manner. Whereas amongst women, there is an altogether different picture in which support for Labour has softened much less than amongst men, and there have been swings away from May (but not towards Corbyn) and from Leave to Remain. I would contend that the overall weakening of Labour in the polls since Theresa May became Prime Minister has, therefore, been primarily the result of a collapse in Labour support amongst men.
Women, by contrast, appear more inclined to support Labour to begin with, and are more sceptical both of the Prime Minister and of her Government - albeit that this seems to have resulted merely in a slower decline in Labour support amongst women rather than an actual increase. All the same, I reckon that the only reason Labour's polling floor seems to be somewhere around 25% rather than 20% is because an important cohort of female voters is less inclined than men to switch to the Tories. Although the tables don't sub-divide the gender splits into age groups, my theory is that Labour is being kept from falling into the abyss by significantly higher support amongst women than men in that portion of the electorate aged under 50.
I had the debate with equally electorally knowledgeable bods yesterday and they seemed to think Nuttall was safe as there isn't a residency rule as in local government.
I'm far from so sure and certainly think there is a case to answer. I seem to remember though that whilst Nuttall could be removed by a petition - if elected it is his agent who stands to serve time should the allegation be upheld.
However, others will remember better than me that when a Blair Babe (male) exceeded his expenses limit he claimed ignorance with incompetence and got away with it. I wonder if Nuttall duly elected would be allowed to hold on to his seat as not in the public interest to remove him. But compare Winchester and the 2 votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-38859622
We can do things that would have been deemed magic (shades of Arthur C. Clarke's famous dictum) only thirty years ago.
No wonder re-offending rates are high.
It serves a purpose though, lets me no that person throwing the accusation is a bit thick and not worth engaging with.
This from just under three years ago made me start:
"What can stop Labour's cruise to victory?"
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/28/milibands-five-hurdles/
I think these figures include people who don't give a result that counts in the main VI question so they're probably mostly nonvoters.
He needed his car to get to work, had his parents not lent him the money to pay the insurer, he would have been out of work and the taxpayer would have lost his tax contributions and had to pay out his JSA.
I think he's said that he believes in a confederation, not a US of E.
Anyway, Europhilia prevails in the centre of politics ... Labour right, Lib.Dems and Tory left. Ted Heath believed in a US of E. Possibly so does Michael Heseltine. 55% of Tory MPs stated an intention to vote Remain.
And so, yes, the sum of human happiness does indeed increase daily!
But, by exactly the same token, why should we accept a convicted thief working in a small company accounts department or in a job where he enters our homes?
I don't think there's any simple solution to this. Although I'm very conscious of the difficulties people with criminal records have, I'm not sure that pretending that the past didn't happen is a good response.
Yes, May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Struggling, though, with where to hide two or three of them undetected on my person?
Not happy about it, though.
And I am so far to the left that my two favourite pieces of legislation would be the repeal of the Hunting Act and the abolition of IHT.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/macedonian-she-wolves.html
The future's neither masculine nor feminine. The idea a gender is inherently superior is tosh. As for women being softer or kinder, consider the women in the article I linked to. Or think of major British female leaders: Thatcher, Elizabeth I, Boudicca. Which one of those was noted for being soft and pacific?
Edited extra bit: sorry, half-asleep and slightly misread your post. Nevertheless, the women I mentioned (both here and in the article) were not especially collaborative and fond of partnership. Indeed, Olympias forced Adea to commit suicide. Roxanne had her fellow widows of Alexander the Great pre-emptively murdered just in case they were pregnant.
All the calculations offered here are percentages of votes cast and I think in the three last night none of the turnouts exceeded 35%. That should not be ignored.
We know that the LDs have excellent records of voter inclination in the seats they hold and many they used to hold or aspired to hold. We also know they have a good body of people who will ring up 100 people either on election day or in the days before. On an average by-election Thursday that group can be used to ring clear LDs from the target ward perhaps 5 or 6 times. Against that an Independent has no chance and it is pretty difficult for the other parties either as their machines do not work that way.
The greatest interest last night was the ward where they got 4% - no database, therefore no telephoning, therefore no overclocking of the LD vote.
The LD machine achieved gold with Sarah Olney but has also achieved many silvers. However, there is a capacity issue and they will not be able to do the same carpet bombing at the May council elections.
Here in South Lakeland there are hardly any council elections with less than 50% turnout as both viable candidates will be mounting a massive GOTV. It is a fact that I lost my county seat four years ago with more votes than the winning candidate in over 70 of the 84 divisions.
Once upon a time a candidate could get elected with one election address and one other hand-out leaflet. Most of the candidates who have stood in by-elections this last year seem to have imagined that was still true. If there is an LD anywhere near they will learn to their cost that that is no longer the case.
That opportunity to *break with the past* is something that our secular justice system should seek to mimic, IMO. Too often the database culture kicks people when they're down and keeps stamping them on their heads.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/02/03/j-k-rowlings-twitter-feud-with-trump-supporters-is-so-bad-shes-now-fighting-some-of-her-fans/?utm_term=.671c3f1b0f74&tid=sm_tw
The performance in the 2016 English locals was unspectacular - modest increase in seats, and actually a small decline in vote share - but this May's polls are largely in the shire counties and the Lib Dems may do better in those, rebuilding from a much-depleted base. But I'd be surprised if there were the kinds of sweeping gains needed to turn big chunks of the map yellow again.
In fact, I'm starting to think Jezza's support is more like half an inch wide and a few feet deep these days...
However, it's extremely labour-intensive and hard to scale up.
Part of the answer is definitely to try to keep people out of prison in the first place, as TSE says. I think we should also roll back on the use of criminal penalties for things which do not involve dishonesty but are breaking of regulations.
A mile wide, an inch deep, and stagnant.
Wouldn't want to be in their offices when the God fearing Republican Americans living in Germany turn up
Well, the fumes from the DVDs might be toxic and I've still got your money, so by all means borrow my lighter.
Rowling’s is pointing out the paucity of their argument, ‘we don’t like what you say, so we’ll burn your books. – Utterly juvenile behaviour.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSC3RMstJl8
http://cdn3-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/03-02-2017.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/03/paris-knife-attack-louvre-evacuated-police-reportedly-shoot/
Meantime, I'll not mention the historical book-burning precedent to avoid being Godwinated.
"Ed is still polling in the high thirties! People must be deaf to the criticism!"