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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continues

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) result:LDEM: 66.0% (+50.4)LAB: 17.1% (-26.2)UKIP: 12.8% (-16.4)CON: 3.0% (-8.8)GRN: 1.0% (+1.0)

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TheScreamingEagles

UKIP must be rivalling the BNP when it comes to retaining/defending council seats.

RobD

Hope you feel better soon, OGH!

SimonStClare

There’s a nasty bug going around. - Get well soon OGH.

david_herdson

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

Morris_Dancer

Get well soon, Mr. Smithson.

Philip_Thompson

Get well soon OGH.

UKIP have achieved their objectives and have no reason to be anymore. It's time to claim victory and retire from political life.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

SouthamObserver said:

Roger said:

MarqueeMark said:

Roger said:

John_M said:

Here's one for Roger. I'm sure he'll love it. It shows England at its very best .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6nPu-1auE

It's Brilliant!! No one in the world can do self effacing humour like the British. It's one of the reason's why British advertising got it's reputation and it's that reputation that has kept the industry at the very top (probably until Brexit)

Why would Brexit kill British self-effacing humour?

I don't do humour but you can't imagine how helpful it is to have that sort of reputation go before you.

Yep - when I lived in Spain "humor ingles" (not britannico, btw) was a well-used phrase for a certain type of wry, self-effacing sense of humour. The other big thing over there among the better off was a kind of English gentleman lifestyle thing - shirt and tie, detached, calm - as a way of distinguishing yourself from the more Latin-style lower orders. That was a hangover from the dictatorship - Franco liked to style himself as an English gentleman - and you don't see it as much as you used to, except among the oldest demographic. The southern European cringe has largely disappeared - probably an EU thing, funnily enough.

There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:

The Brits - purpose of meeting is to kick ideas around & come up with better plan. Meant to do pre-reading on plane, but had breakfast instead, doing it now. As tensions rise take off their jackets and roll up their sleeves (to indicate seriousness with which they take it and eagerness to work hard) to others this looks like sloppiness (they didn't even do the pre-reading!) and as tension rises their use of humour (they think to lighten the atmosphere) merely reinforces this.

The Germans - they have done all the pre-reading, considered the various alternatives and concluded what the best plan is. The purpose of the meeting is to impose that plan on the woolly thinkers.

The French - their boss told them last night what the outcome has to be, so they'll sit in the meeting doing their email while the Brits and Germans slog it out. Leave before the end of the meeting, urgent appointment (lunch).

The Italians Who knew you could get great Japanese food in Athens? Pity the Hotel is called the Grande Bretagne - will that change now? Where are we having lunch?

rottenborough

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

[Deleted User]

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

That the LDs appeal has little to do with Brexit (even though LD'ers are absolutely desperate for it to be so) except for some limited evidence it does in heavily Remain areas and with the most politically engaged.

Casino_Royale

Get well soon, Mike.

tpfkar

I hope the Rotherham result helps you recover OGH. Best wishes

SandyRentool

Patrick said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.

rcs1000

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

TheScreamingEagles

SandyRentool said:

Patrick said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.

Actually it was, this was another case in the courts, can't imagine why it wasn't shared on PB.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2769373/sheffield-child-sex-ring/

MarqueeMark

Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.

Nigelb

@rcs1000
On other Trump news: as I'm sure everyone has seen, there have been multiple court cases which have overruled the "No One from the Following Countries" Executive Order as relates to those people who have valid US visas. Now, I don't know if this is true, but Slate is carrying the story that Trump administration has unilaterally cancelled those visas.

I have a great deal of sympathy with the US wishing to impose extra checks on certain travellers (albeit, I suspect this will do little or nothing to protect the US from terrorism). But I worry quite a lot about the respect for the rule of law. There is separation of powers for a reason. The Houses of Congress are supposed to make laws. The President is supposed to run the country from day-to-day inside the rules set out by Congress. And the Courts are there to ensure the rule of law is followed.

While the US legal system is tortuous, respect for the rule of law is the most important protection citizens have. It protects them against both their fellow humans and their own government*. The long term success of the US is attributable to the institutions that have been established. Tearing them down to be replaced by one man's dictat does not bode well for the future.


* Throughout history, you are, of course, far more likely to be killed by your own government, than by other governments, or by your fellow man.

Reading the Slate story, it's notably detailed, which is rarely the case when they're just venting.
I agree that one of the most disturbing aspects of Trump's behaviour is his complete disregard of democratic norms, the rule of law amongst them. Constitutions are all very well, but they do not exist in a vacuum - that of the old USSR on the face of it guaranteed many freedoms.

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

SouthamObserver

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

rottenborough

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

Mid teens seems about right. Not sure about the disaster bit - given how low they have fallen anything in double figures would be good.

TheScreamingEagles

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.

https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

MarqueeMark

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

SouthamObserver

UKIP really does need to be doing a lot better in places like Rotherham, doesn't it?

TheScreamingEagles

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

Patrick said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.

Actually it was, this was another case in the courts, can't imagine why it wasn't shared on PB.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2769373/sheffield-child-sex-ring/

Shane Whiteley looks like quite the intellectual.

rcs1000

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

Why would you have policies?

All you need is an inspiring slogan ("hope, not hate", etc.)

david_herdson

Patrick said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

Labour weakness splits the left. The Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP are consequences of that rather than the other way round. (Not quite so true for the SNP but still to a large extent).

Chris_A

SouthamObserver said:

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

That's because they're single issue obsessives who think that just because they voted once it seals the matter for all time. Utterly fed up of Leavers who seem to consider referendum result as Holy Writ.

Philip_Thompson

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

None of the above. That is their only purpose which is why they are interchangeable with UKIP.

TheScreamingEagles

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).

I've tweeted Miss Thornberry that, tyvm.

[Deleted User]

SouthamObserver said:

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.

TOPPING

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).

Magnificent!

On other matters, I realised the effect of Trump this morning when the news story on something or other said: "The White House has said..." and I pondered that whereas for better or worse previously that would have indicated the considered, thoughtful voice of authority, now such pronouncements come from a strange type of unreal limbo. No more considered or authoritative (save of course for the executive powers it contains) than an internet tidbit.

AlastairMeeks

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

So you managed to name a Lib Dem policy.

Pulpstar

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

1p on tax for the NHS, and more joined up mental/social/physical health services.

isam

Fair amount of UKIP driftage in Stoke.. maybe the extrapolations from the by elections, plus Crick/OGH putting the boot into Nuttall?

AlastairMeeks

The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.

The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.

SouthamObserver

Patrick said:

SouthamObserver said:

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

Charles

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.

https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

laborensis venomi?

Tissue_Price

OGH said:

I’m just recovering from a nasty cold which has really knocked me out so not much time for analysis.

Diane's mystery illness explained? I hope you have an alibi for 4pm-7pm on Wednesday, Mike.

GeoffM

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)

What would be a good result?

I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.

UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.

I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.

UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).

So you managed to name a Lib Dem policy.

Like every other 'policy' it will vary depending on audience and doorstep.

Yay, a LibDem circlejerk thread! Haven't had one of those for ... oooh ...days, now.

[Deleted User]

david_herdson said:

Patrick said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.

Labour weakness splits the left. The Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP are consequences of that rather than the other way round. (Not quite so true for the SNP but still to a large extent).

Yes I suppose that is a better way of describing it. If Labour weren't such a monumental clusterfuck then the LDs wouldn't be reviving so quickly. Either way lefty voters have nobody with a reasonable chance of forming a government to vote for.
I would be delighted for Labour to die completely and for the LibDems to grow into a strong and credible Opposition. A Whig vs Tories revival.

PlatoSaid

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.

https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

laborensis venomi?

Peter Mandelson?

Charles

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).

I thought they were only a few mm long?

[Deleted User]

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

SouthamObserver said:

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

I said lefties.

Slackbladder

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.

https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

laborensis venomi?

probably something like this:
http://www.uksafari.com/green_huntsman_spiders.htm

GeoffM

TheScreamingEagles said:

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"

PlatoSaid

For anyone interested - Milo's book is back up to #1 on Amazon bestsellers - its not published until mid March.

https://www.amazon.com/Dangerous-Milo-Yiannopoulos/dp/1501173081

and his intv with Tucker - top rated cable news show now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALe9p1nn9TY

[Deleted User]

Why is UKIP not thriving now?
1. They existed for a single purpose - a purpose now being legislated for.
2. Many northern WWC deplorables are deeply Eurosceptic but nonetheless decent normal moral people and UKIP still has a whiff of yuck about it. Brexit utterly legitimised Euroscepticism as the majority view (esp in England), but in so doing exposed the 'and what else do you believe' issue for UKIP.
3. UKIP was a one man band. The man is now a radio show host.
4. Their new leader is a scouser. Which will go down well in Liverpool but like warm vomit everywhere else.
5. Mrs May is doing a good job.

nunu

SouthamObserver said:

Patrick said:

SouthamObserver said:

In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.

I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

Because they won. Wwc are probably thinking Labour led Corbyn is crap and want nothing to do with it. And Libdems are best centre left alternative. Ukip don't have policies on NHS, austerity ect.

Also I suspect Labours new members are useless at door knocking they just wanted to vote for Corbyn whilst libdem new members are motivated.

nunu

SouthamObserver said:

UKIP really does need to be doing a lot better in places like Rotherham, doesn't it?

Yes. But we always knew their ground game was crap.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.

https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424

"The lime Green Crab Spider is adept at ambushing insect prey in flowers, striking when they least expect it..."

Well, it's certainly true that no one expects much from Emily Thornberry.

SandyRentool

I think too many people are looking through the prism of Brexit too much of the time. If you are fed up with people letting their dogs crap in your street, the Leave/Remain position of your council candidates isn't top priority when you cast your vote.

CD13

Ms Vance,

"There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:"

Excellent summary of European meetings. I've been to several in Brussels and elsewhere (we went to some in Schipol airport - day meetings), I was there only for scientific advice but it was fun to observe.

The relationships were even more marked. We get on with the Scandinavians as they like the British humour even if they don't share it. The Dutch too. The Germans know they can do mutually beneficial business with us and appreciate that. The French are pleasant, but awkward on principle, and regard us with suspicion. The Italians? Who knows, they're always out glugging wine somewhere.

isam

AlastairMeeks said:

The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.

The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.

...combined with the fact that Leave won on the back of a lot people who were voting for the first time/first time in a long while, and these people wouldn't even know there was such thing as council by elections

MarkSenior

Forecast for May CC locals , Lib Dems to gain around 170 seats and overall control of Cornwall and Somerset .
Council by elections in the next 2 weeks should see 3 Lib Dem gains from Conservatives

Sean_F

AlastairMeeks said:

The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.

The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.

Up to a point, but the Lib Dems are recovering from a very low base in local government. They currently hold 1,860 seats, compared to 4-5,000 throughout the period 1993-2010. It's similar to the Conservatives' recovery in local government during the 1997-2003 period.

PlatoSaid

International Spectator
BREAKING: Trump will today sign executive order related to the financial sector, including an order to review the post-GFC Dodd-Frank law

SandyRentool

Worth mentioning that in the party emails I received ahead of these by elections, they were very much billed as Labour v UKIP. No mention of a threat from the LibDems.

Sunderland, then Rotherham. Some head scratching required by northern Labour strategists.

Big_G_NorthWales

Paris latest : 250 people locked in the Louvre and being let out in small groups after vetting

SandyRentool

PlatoSaid said:

International Spectator
BREAKING: Trump will today sign executive order related to the financial sector, including an order to review the post-GFC Dodd-Frank law

Is he also planning on putting his own face on the $100 bill?

TOPPING

Just logging in to BF I realise I am very green on Stephen Kinnock to be next Lab leader. I am now (at 21s - 25s on PP) green on La Thornberry also. Her White Van Man error will be seen as the least of Lab's problems in the months to come - and she has been v impressive (all things relative) in the HoC of late.

MrsB

MarqueeMark said:

Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.

and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/827474253817712640

isam

Maybe I was right all along and Nigel reached the parts other UKIPpers couldnt reach!!

Would be sad to see the meme that he was rubbish/put people off die out though, and you'd all have to admit you were wrong so obvs it wont happen!

TheScreamingEagles

‪@sharpeangle: S London betting shop client bets £10,000 on Marine Le Pen in French Election for £32,000 return. Now 15/8 2nd fav from 5/2. #Marine2017‬

philiph

CD13 said:

Ms Vance,

"There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:"

Excellent summary of European meetings. I've been to several in Brussels and elsewhere (we went to some in Schipol airport - day meetings), I was there only for scientific advice but it was fun to observe.

The relationships were even more marked. We get on with the Scandinavians as they like the British humour even if they don't share it. The Dutch too. The Germans know they can do mutually beneficial business with us and appreciate that. The French are pleasant, but awkward on principle, and regard us with suspicion. The Italians? Who knows, they're always out glugging wine somewhere.

I was in Holland to do a presentation to a group of my Dutch and Belgium customers on Wednesday. The objective was how we can increase our business, in particular our business in Germany. The cultural differences are subtle but significant, but were the cause of lively and interesting debate.

Sean_F

MrsB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.

and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.

Which is nice, but the Conservatives have almost five times as many local councillors as the Lib Dems do.

logical_song

MarkSenior said:

Forecast for May CC locals , Lib Dems to gain around 170 seats and overall control of Cornwall and Somerset .
Council by elections in the next 2 weeks should see 3 Lib Dem gains from Conservatives

Kudos for sticking your neck out.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM

OldKingCole

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"

And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".

nunu

Could libdems actually gain stoke if turnout us around 40%?

Richard_Nabavi

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM

It was always obvious that they had to be. The EU position was not only unworkable, it was directly contrary to what Article 50 says.

MrsB

Sean_F said:

MrsB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.

and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.

Which is nice, but the Conservatives have almost five times as many local councillors as the Lib Dems do.

gives us something to aim at....

Big_G_NorthWales

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM

It was always obvious that they had to be. The EU position was not only unworkable, it was directly contrary to what Article 50 says.

Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

Charles

OldKingCole said:

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"

And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".

Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)

Ishmael_Z

AlastairMeeks said:

The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.

The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.

LOL. I said it wasn't the most cataclysmically interesting thing that has ever happened, and I was not a leave voter (I don't know what WTW is) and HYUFD made what I think is the valid point that LD successes at local level don't necessarily upscale. So let's wait n see till after 23 February. I do have to say, though, that I don't have to google to see if it's Farage or Falage every time I refer to him, nor indeed Nuttall/Nuttarr. When last did a party leader have such poor name recognition?

justin124

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

I would also suggest that the LD's often have to rely on a combination of local circumstances. In the Rotherham ward they won, their candidate was a local doctor , the Labour councillor had resigned following allegations of sexual assault and Labour went on to select an Asian candidate in an a 90% white area which had elected a BNP councillor a few years earlier. Very propitious for the LDs really!

Richard_Nabavi

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it

I'm not sure I'd describe it as a strong hand, exactly, but we do have interests in common.

The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.

MyBurningEars

Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Was-Potato-Oligarch-Travels-Travails/dp/1857885090

That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.

One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.

Sean_F

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"

And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".

Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)

The high water mark for the party was 62 MPs, in 2005. If Labour collapse, they might well exceed this, but it should probably be considered the maximum achievable, over the course of several elections.

OldKingCole

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.

If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"

And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".

Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)

Did say there had to be some realism, even in dreams. Even SeanT's books have some tenuous connection to actual events.
There won't, of course be a single party LibDem government because in their first term as largest party they'll implement PR.

[Deleted User]

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.

Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, sounds like you protest too much

Sean_F

Patrick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.

Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?

No, she does worse against Macron in round 2 than against Fillon.

However, if Macron were to implode, who knows whether she could come through?

CarlottaVance

Key issue of our time:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827477947154063361

Pulpstar

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

Aren't the messages to take from the results:

1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.

?

I would also suggest that the LD's often have to rely on a combination of local circumstances. In the Rotherham ward they won, their candidate was a local doctor , the Labour councillor had resigned following allegations of sexual assault and Labour went on to select an Asian candidate in an a 90% white area which had elected a BNP councillor a few years earlier. Very propitious for the LDs really!

The Lib Dem machinery in this part of the country is actually nothing more than some dedicated local party members getting out onto the doorstep...

malcolmg

FPT
Blue_rog said:

» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips

Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.

david_herdson

malcolmg said:

FPT
Blue_rog said:

» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips

Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.

A rare occasion when I'm in entire agreement with Malcolm.

CarlottaVance

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it

The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.

I agree - without Trump or Putin or Islamic Terrorism we might have been in for a 'pour encourage les autres' exit deal.

Now I think they'll want to get it sorted out as quickly, efficiently and painlessly as possible - for all concerned. After we've gone the've got a €10 billion hole to plug.....

Animal_pb

malcolmg said:

FPT
Blue_rog said:

» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips

Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.

That feels like a policy we should all get behind.

SandyRentool

Patrick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.

Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?

If Fillon limps through to the run-off, and then more brown stuff hits the air blower, a voter strike could see Le Pen win.

Yes, a couple of ifs in there, but possible.

midwinter

isam said:

Maybe I was right all along and Nigel reached the parts other UKIPpers couldnt reach!!

Would be sad to see the meme that he was rubbish/put people off die out though, and you'd all have to admit you were wrong so obvs it wont happen!

Depends how you define rubbish I suppose. Hard to deny he polarised opposition against him when standing himself, obviously he did well for UKIP as a whole though.

SandyRentool

Animal_pb said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
Blue_rog said:

» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips

Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.

That feels like a policy we should all get behind.

Dr Sunil will be demanding veggie haggis.

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it

The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.

I agree - without Trump or Putin or Islamic Terrorism we might have been in for a 'pour encourage les autres' exit deal.

Now I think they'll want to get it sorted out as quickly, efficiently and painlessly as possible - for all concerned. After we've gone the've got a €10 billion hole to plug.....

It's not all about the money, you know.

TheWhiteRabbit

SandyRentool said:

Patrick said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?

No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.

Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?

If Fillon limps through to the run-off, and then more brown stuff hits the air blower, a voter strike could see Le Pen win.

Yes, a couple of ifs in there, but possible.

It's an odd one. Le Pen needs Fillon to do well enough to be her opponent but not well enough to beat her!

Animal_pb

SandyRentool said:

Animal_pb said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
Blue_rog said:

» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips

Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.

That feels like a policy we should all get behind.

Dr Sunil will be demanding veggie haggis.

Yeah, but we can kill that in sub-committee. Of more importance is the fine print requiring English fish & chip shops to serve deep fired haggis on demand.

EDIT: ...fried. I have the same bug as OGH, right now...

CarlottaVance

A fresh legal challenge to the government’s plans for leaving the European Union has been blocked by the high court.

It was brought by campaigners arguing that parliament must separately legislate to remove the UK from the European Economic Area (EEA) and the single market.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/03/fresh-brexit-legal-challenge-blocked-high-court-article-127?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter