politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continu

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

@TSE, the Senate map is horrible for the Democrats in 2018. They're defending 5 seats that went for Trump by margins of 18-41%, plus Ohio, which Trump won by 9%.

That's what I thought.

I'm trying to look at what the House and Senate will look like for the latter half of his term

The Democrats are defending seats in five massively red States (two of which they won due to appalling Republican candidates in 2012, Indiana and Missouri). They're also defending seats in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin, won by Trump (albeit, the last four narrowly). They're also defending seats in New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia, all marginal in Senate terms.

Manchin, Tester, and Heitkamp are all well-regarded in their States, and Democrats won the Governorships in West Virginia and Montana, despite huge wins for Trump. So, none of them should be considered write offs. The Republicans are defending one marginal seat in Nevada.

IMO, Trump would have to plumb appalling depths of unpopularity (worse than Bush in 2006-08) for the Democrats to hold everything, and gain Nevada. However, normal levels of mid-term unpopularity should reduce the scale of Democratic losses. My best guess at this point, would be a net loss of 3 Senate seats for the Democrats. Given that would mean that some Democratic Senators would have held on in solidly Red States, it wouldn't actually be a bad result, and the Senate maps become much better for them in 2020 and 2022.

The House in 2018 should be much better for the Democrats. They need to gain 24 seats to take control, which is about average for the opposition in mid-term.

Thanks for that.

I'm looking on betting from 2019 onwards

1) The House voting to impeach

2) The Senate convicting by a two-thirds majority

I can see 1) happening but not 2)

TOPPING said:

Transition period = no new trade deals.

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

What choice would they have?

In practice, it's hard to see how a separate adjudication method could be set up in time anyway, and the government could finesse it as accepting ECJ rulings over the Single Market but not accepting ECJ rulings having direct effect in UK law.

Agreed. I suspect HMG will accept something like this, but they'll try and fudge it with semantics, to save face.

Still leaves the thorny question of FoM. But nonetheless the first inklings of a deal emerge. It will not be The Apocalypse

I think it would fly - apart from the headbangers - who won't be happy until the UK is towed out into the middle of the Atlantic.

The next net migration figures are due 23rd February. I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum. If the numbers are dropping, then I think May will keep the electorate onside.

Theuniondivvie said:

Melty snowflake takes battle to oppressive style magazines.

https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/827521736077828096

The stench of coke sweat off him must be mighty.

SouthamObserver said:

Recidivist said:

SouthamObserver said:

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.

I completely agree.

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Transition period = no new trade deals.

Everyone accepts that trade deals take years to negotiate.

I presume the UK's position would be OK we'll accept ECJ laws on the Single Market for 5 years, in transition (but we'll call it something else to save face), however during that time the UK will negotiate new trade deals, so that at the end of the 5 years they come into effect immediately. No cliff edge for anyone.

Seems eminently sensible. But then, we're talking about politicians here....

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Recidivist said:

SouthamObserver said:

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.

I completely agree.

In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-traveled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things.

Patrick said:

John M
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.

I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

John_M said:

Patrick said:

John M
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.

I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.

PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

AlastairMeeks said:

John_M said:

Patrick said:

John M
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.

I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.

PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.

https://sotonpolitics.org/2016/10/20/did-brexit-increase-hate-crimes-probably-yes/

John_M said:

AlastairMeeks said:

John_M said:

Patrick said:

John M
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.

I feel the need to call bullshit on this. It was discussed here the other day (and the issue was subject to a detailed review by a Radio 4 Moreover slot). There has not been any increase in hate crimes. There has been a huge increase in ENQUIRIES about hate crimes recorded - but zero recorded increase by police or courts service of actual hate crimes taking place. Radio 4 (that xenophobic righty bastion) were adamant on the point. The Guardian reported the enquiries surge as a hate crimes surge (The horror! The shock! fake lefty news from the Guardian! Who'd a thunk it?). The reality is that life in friendly multiracial Britain continues exactly as it did before Brexit. Have you punched any more Somalis this week than you did before? No. Me neither. Fear and derogatory opinion is not a substitute for evidence.

PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.

https://sotonpolitics.org/2016/10/20/did-brexit-increase-hate-crimes-probably-yes/

I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.

I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.

OldKingCole said:

Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.

MyBurningEars said:

AlsoIndigo said:

MyBurningEars said:

Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Was-Potato-Oligarch-Travels-Travails/dp/1857885090

That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.

One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.

If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Eyed-Salaryman-traveller-Mitsubish

Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Alanbrooke said:

MyBurningEars said:

AlsoIndigo said:

MyBurningEars said:

Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Was-Potato-Oligarch-Travels-Travails/dp/1857885090

That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.

One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.

If you enjoy that sort of book I highly recommend:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Eyed-Salaryman-traveller-Mitsubish

Cheers, I'd heard of that but never read it. Mole's "Potato Oligarch" book is very good and well worth a read. Longstanding PBers may remember Seth O'Logue (aka Avery Limpole) having some interesting anecdotes about doing business in 90s Russia, but this book gets some closer glimpses of the underbelly.

we need Avery back to lighten us up a bit

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ishmael_Z said:

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/827522936919711744

Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.

TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.

Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?

Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.

I am not convinced it is the RO's duty to investigate the truth of representations made in nomination papers; especially not on the basis of what was "widely known".

Ishmael_Z said:

John_M said:

isam said:

John_M said:

AlastairMeeks said:

John_M said:

Patrick said:

John M
I think we'll be able to see if migration has been materially affected by the rampant xenophobia and epidemic of hate crimes since the referendum.

PSA: Just about everything I post on here has invisible [sarcasm] or [irony] tags. I do apologise for being a tad over-subtle in this particular instance. I'll try and flag my [deadpan] more successfully in future.

https://sotonpolitics.org/2016/10/20/did-brexit-increase-hate-crimes-probably-yes/

I agree, "probably yes". As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans, I'm sure it's just as unpleasant being beaten up for being Polish or Romanian. They're a very convenient out group.

I think the thrust of my post stands. What is the general trend on net migration. Up or down. One of the key moments of last year's campaign was the publication of the net migration figures - you could almost hear the sharp intake of breath in the country.

"As someone who's been beaten up for wearing glasses, wearing a Villa scarf (long time ago!), having an Irish surname and being trans,"

The other three weren't quite enough to justify violence, so they asked for your surname?

I'm obviously not communicating very clearly this afternoon - oh to be @Cyclefree!

Separate occasions Isam. As I was at school in the Midlands during the Birmingham pub bombings, some of the older chaps decided that, as a representative of the Irish people, I should suffer accordingly.

There are elements of any community that will always look for trouble. They'll find an excuse for violence, physical or merely verbal. Immigrants are just one more outgroup to victimise.

I think Isam was making a joke (and a good one). Irony meters need refurbishing all round.

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Recidivist said:

SouthamObserver said:

That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.

The white working class? I think you'll find that a lot of them aren't all that white and don't get paid much for what work they can get. Some of them are socially conservative but plenty aren't. I don't think UKIP have actually got anything for them.

I completely agree.

I think there's an element of snibbishness operating in some punditry - they think of the WWC as a seething mass of dimwit people who read the Sun and vote for any skinhead who comes along. In reality they're quite diverse, in the same way that SeanT and I are both well-trravelled white AB voters with, uh, rather different views on most things. Nuttall is a Scouser trying to pretend he's from Stoke, and I don't think voters will instantly gravitate to him.

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/827522936919711744

Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.

TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.

Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?

Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?

I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?

I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ReggieCide said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?

Not quite.

For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.

Community service is the best option.

.

Clarke, as a former Justice Minister was talking about this the other day. He was regretting the rise in prison population and saying that for minor offences prison was often counter-productive.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ReggieCide said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?

Not quite.

For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.

Community service is the best option.

What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.

For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?

I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ReggieCide said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?

Not quite.

For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.

Community service is the best option.

What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.

For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd add serious fraud to that list.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Donald Trump would say we need to stop Irishmen coming over to the mainland until we've worked out what the hell is going on.

A Royal Marine from Northern Ireland has pleaded guilty to offences related to dissident republican terrorism, including bomb-making and storing weapons.

Ciarán Maxwell, 31, appeared via video link at the Old Bailey in London.

He was arrested in Somerset last August after the the discovery of two dissident republican arms dumps near Larne, County Antrim.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38859531

TheScreamingEagles said:

When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?

I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.

He really looked ill as his cherished dream of the EU disappeared. He is a conviction politician and has to be admired but it is said all political careers end in failure. Maybe he had that in mind

Ishmael_Z said:

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

OldKingCole said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/827522936919711744

Cringeworthy Crick is just milking his exposé for all it’s worth now.

TBH I’m not that impressed with the conduct of the Returning Officer.

Can’t say I’m familiar with that aspect Mr Cole, what's the RO done to offend..?

Failed to check the address was genuine. Mr (to give him correct title for once) Nuttall is well known, and it’s also widely known that he doesn’t live in Stoke. Putting an empty house on the normination form should have led to it being refused.
Admittedly we had a debate about this yesterday and there were opinions that if the address was an address, it couldn’t be refused.

I am not convinced it is the RO's duty to investigate the truth of representations made in nomination papers; especially not on the basis of what was "widely known".

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Guardian reporting that there might be a 5 year Brexit transition deal, but the U.K. would have to accept ECJ rulings over the Single Market during that time.

That will relieve the City - I doubt a single banker will move to Paris. But would the hardline sceptics accept?

Trump is going to ensure that Brexit is a whole lot softer than swivel-eyed right wing Atlanticists might have fantasised about. Both sides will look at his behaviour since assuming office and conclude that a deal suits everyone's interests. We can't seriously claim that if the EU does not play fair we will move closer to the US, as we will just be laughed away form the table, but the Europeans will also have to conclude that having the UK on their side is going to be a lot better than a mere passive aggressive accommodation. We will leave the EU, but still be closely tied to it. The CJEU will continue to play a role, but as a reference point for "international agreements".

Despite appearances in the Commons this week the key factor in how smoothly it goes still depends on splits in the Tory party. If the WTO and pronto faction get noisier once Article 50 is declared then May will have problems.

Your doom scenario is always just down the road, isn't it? When the world moves on, you just park the Outrage Bus at the next stop - and start again.

Where is your evidence that the Tory Party is going to be riven asunder? How many Tory MPs didn't toe the line? Precisely Ken Clarke. Anybody basing their views on Euro-splits on Ken Clarke as the weather vane would have been wrong for about forty years.

The Labour Party, on the other hand, is the the dictionary definition of split to buggery. That never seems to excite you, though, does it? Wonder why....

Ken Clarke looked and sounded pretty ill in the Commons this week, is he ok?

I do hope all is well. I'd like him to have a long and happy retirement from the House of Commons, listening to jazz, watching birds and cheering on Forest.

He really looked ill as his cherished dream of the EU disappeared. He is a conviction politician and has to be admired but it is said all political careers end in failure. Maybe he had that in mind

Well I wish him well whatever. He is entitled to like the EU. From his appearance and speech the other day, I think the Conservatives should look after him. Plus the title of his book is great!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ReggieCide said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?

Not quite.

For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.

Community service is the best option.

What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.

For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd add serious fraud to that list.

I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500

That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.

Pages 8 and 9.

Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.

https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Fraud_bribery_and_money_laundering_offences_-_Definitive_guideline.pdf

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ReggieCide said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

I didn't realise how seriously this address stuff was taken;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37163419

Two months in prison seems to me to be a bit excessive and a waste of money. The guys reputation is ruined and any hopes he had of political advancement are gone.

Can we not just fine him/his party 50% of the costs of rerunning the byelection or something?

He would have served only a fortnight in prison before being released on tag.

It is low level first time offences like this that clog up our prisons.

Doesn't that suggest an easily implemented way of reducing prison populations? What's the catch?

Not quite.

For first time offenders, unless you've convicted of a sexual, gun related robberies/break ins, serious violence, or drug selling offence, a custodial sentence shouldn't be an option.

Community service is the best option.

What my biggest complaint about prison is that it makes people worse. It doesn't help people who have substance or mental health problems.

For example around 2012, over one in ten prisoners had previously served in the armed forces, I reckon that was done to decades worth of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

I'd add serious fraud to that list.

I could live with that. IIRC the current sentencing guidelines says a custodial sentence could be appropriate for frauds above £2,500

That sounds about the right level to me, you could even raise it a bit - say to £5000 perhaps. But anything over say 50k should be came down on like a tonne of absolute bricks.

Pages 8 and 9.

Under 2.5k non custodial, between 2.5k and 5k prison sentence if you're really culpable/high aggravating factors.

https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Fraud_bribery_and_money_laundering_offences_-_Definitive_guideline.pdf

I would also like to see far greater and more aggressive seizure of assets - particularly for the sorts of high level and corporate fraud that leaves large numbers of victims. I think that would be an even greater deterrent than prison.

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/827533636366909441

So while May was being 'humiliated' by her 'rush to Trump', her 'Best PM score collapsed by +1 point.....

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

When he was doing his book tour he admitted he's been pretty down since his wife died, they had been married for 50 odd years, but that he's been as healthy as he has been since the 80s when a photographer took a picture of him smoking a cigar and drinking a pint the day he became Health Secretary.

Losing his wife and the Brexit result must have been very hard for him to bear. If only he had been rather more pragmatic about the failing of the EU, and prepared to back off some of his rampant Europhilia, he was that rare politician who could have been a genuine cross-party statesman. He speaks much sense in a way which people listen to and nod at. As Chancellor, he left Gordon Brown a golden legacy. He has been a superb public servant, marred only by a career-stifling blind-spot on how the EU superstate was not for the UK.