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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continu

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) result:LDEM: 66.0% (+50.4)LAB: 17.1% (-26.2)UKIP: 12.8% (-16.4)CON: 3.0% (-8.8)GRN: 1.0% (+1.0)
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1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
UKIP have achieved their objectives and have no reason to be anymore. It's time to claim victory and retire from political life.
The Brits - purpose of meeting is to kick ideas around & come up with better plan. Meant to do pre-reading on plane, but had breakfast instead, doing it now. As tensions rise take off their jackets and roll up their sleeves (to indicate seriousness with which they take it and eagerness to work hard) to others this looks like sloppiness (they didn't even do the pre-reading!) and as tension rises their use of humour (they think to lighten the atmosphere) merely reinforces this.
The Germans - they have done all the pre-reading, considered the various alternatives and concluded what the best plan is. The purpose of the meeting is to impose that plan on the woolly thinkers.
The French - their boss told them last night what the outcome has to be, so they'll sit in the meeting doing their email while the Brits and Germans slog it out. Leave before the end of the meeting, urgent appointment (lunch).
The Italians Who knew you could get great Japanese food in Athens? Pity the Hotel is called the Grande Bretagne - will that change now? Where are we having lunch?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2769373/sheffield-child-sex-ring/
On other Trump news: as I'm sure everyone has seen, there have been multiple court cases which have overruled the "No One from the Following Countries" Executive Order as relates to those people who have valid US visas. Now, I don't know if this is true, but Slate is carrying the story that Trump administration has unilaterally cancelled those visas.
I have a great deal of sympathy with the US wishing to impose extra checks on certain travellers (albeit, I suspect this will do little or nothing to protect the US from terrorism). But I worry quite a lot about the respect for the rule of law. There is separation of powers for a reason. The Houses of Congress are supposed to make laws. The President is supposed to run the country from day-to-day inside the rules set out by Congress. And the Courts are there to ensure the rule of law is followed.
While the US legal system is tortuous, respect for the rule of law is the most important protection citizens have. It protects them against both their fellow humans and their own government*. The long term success of the US is attributable to the institutions that have been established. Tearing them down to be replaced by one man's dictat does not bode well for the future.
* Throughout history, you are, of course, far more likely to be killed by your own government, than by other governments, or by your fellow man.
Reading the Slate story, it's notably detailed, which is rarely the case when they're just venting.
I agree that one of the most disturbing aspects of Trump's behaviour is his complete disregard of democratic norms, the rule of law amongst them. Constitutions are all very well, but they do not exist in a vacuum - that of the old USSR on the face of it guaranteed many freedoms.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424
All you need is an inspiring slogan ("hope, not hate", etc.)
On other matters, I realised the effect of Trump this morning when the news story on something or other said: "The White House has said..." and I pondered that whereas for better or worse previously that would have indicated the considered, thoughtful voice of authority, now such pronouncements come from a strange type of unreal limbo. No more considered or authoritative (save of course for the executive powers it contains) than an internet tidbit.
The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.
Yay, a LibDem circlejerk thread! Haven't had one of those for ... oooh ...days, now.
I would be delighted for Labour to die completely and for the LibDems to grow into a strong and credible Opposition. A Whig vs Tories revival.
http://www.uksafari.com/green_huntsman_spiders.htm
https://www.amazon.com/Dangerous-Milo-Yiannopoulos/dp/1501173081
and his intv with Tucker - top rated cable news show now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALe9p1nn9TY
1. They existed for a single purpose - a purpose now being legislated for.
2. Many northern WWC deplorables are deeply Eurosceptic but nonetheless decent normal moral people and UKIP still has a whiff of yuck about it. Brexit utterly legitimised Euroscepticism as the majority view (esp in England), but in so doing exposed the 'and what else do you believe' issue for UKIP.
3. UKIP was a one man band. The man is now a radio show host.
4. Their new leader is a scouser. Which will go down well in Liverpool but like warm vomit everywhere else.
5. Mrs May is doing a good job.
Also I suspect Labours new members are useless at door knocking they just wanted to vote for Corbyn whilst libdem new members are motivated.
Well, it's certainly true that no one expects much from Emily Thornberry.
"There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:"
Excellent summary of European meetings. I've been to several in Brussels and elsewhere (we went to some in Schipol airport - day meetings), I was there only for scientific advice but it was fun to observe.
The relationships were even more marked. We get on with the Scandinavians as they like the British humour even if they don't share it. The Dutch too. The Germans know they can do mutually beneficial business with us and appreciate that. The French are pleasant, but awkward on principle, and regard us with suspicion. The Italians? Who knows, they're always out glugging wine somewhere.
Council by elections in the next 2 weeks should see 3 Lib Dem gains from Conservatives
BREAKING: Trump will today sign executive order related to the financial sector, including an order to review the post-GFC Dodd-Frank law
Sunderland, then Rotherham. Some head scratching required by northern Labour strategists.
Would be sad to see the meme that he was rubbish/put people off die out though, and you'd all have to admit you were wrong so obvs it wont happen!
The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Was-Potato-Oligarch-Travels-Travails/dp/1857885090
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.
There won't, of course be a single party LibDem government because in their first term as largest party they'll implement PR.
However, if Macron were to implode, who knows whether she could come through?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827477947154063361
Blue_rog said:
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Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.
Now I think they'll want to get it sorted out as quickly, efficiently and painlessly as possible - for all concerned. After we've gone the've got a €10 billion hole to plug.....
Yes, a couple of ifs in there, but possible.
EDIT: ...fried. I have the same bug as OGH, right now...
It was brought by campaigners arguing that parliament must separately legislate to remove the UK from the European Economic Area (EEA) and the single market.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/03/fresh-brexit-legal-challenge-blocked-high-court-article-127?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter