politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continu

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham) result:LDEM: 66.0% (+50.4)LAB: 17.1% (-26.2)UKIP: 12.8% (-16.4)CON: 3.0% (-8.8)GRN: 1.0% (+1.0)
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UKIP must be rivalling the BNP when it comes to retaining/defending council seats.0
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Hope you feel better soon, OGH!0
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There’s a nasty bug going around. - Get well soon OGH.0
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Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
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Get well soon, Mr. Smithson.0
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Get well soon OGH.
UKIP have achieved their objectives and have no reason to be anymore. It's time to claim victory and retire from political life.0 -
FPT:
There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:SouthamObserver said:
Yep - when I lived in Spain "humor ingles" (not britannico, btw) was a well-used phrase for a certain type of wry, self-effacing sense of humour. The other big thing over there among the better off was a kind of English gentleman lifestyle thing - shirt and tie, detached, calm - as a way of distinguishing yourself from the more Latin-style lower orders. That was a hangover from the dictatorship - Franco liked to style himself as an English gentleman - and you don't see it as much as you used to, except among the oldest demographic. The southern European cringe has largely disappeared - probably an EU thing, funnily enough.Roger said:
I don't do humour but you can't imagine how helpful it is to have that sort of reputation go before you.MarqueeMark said:
Why would Brexit kill British self-effacing humour?Roger said:
It's Brilliant!! No one in the world can do self effacing humour like the British. It's one of the reason's why British advertising got it's reputation and it's that reputation that has kept the industry at the very top (probably until Brexit)John_M said:Here's one for Roger. I'm sure he'll love it. It shows England at its very best
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6nPu-1auE
The Brits - purpose of meeting is to kick ideas around & come up with better plan. Meant to do pre-reading on plane, but had breakfast instead, doing it now. As tensions rise take off their jackets and roll up their sleeves (to indicate seriousness with which they take it and eagerness to work hard) to others this looks like sloppiness (they didn't even do the pre-reading!) and as tension rises their use of humour (they think to lighten the atmosphere) merely reinforces this.
The Germans - they have done all the pre-reading, considered the various alternatives and concluded what the best plan is. The purpose of the meeting is to impose that plan on the woolly thinkers.
The French - their boss told them last night what the outcome has to be, so they'll sit in the meeting doing their email while the Brits and Germans slog it out. Leave before the end of the meeting, urgent appointment (lunch).
The Italians Who knew you could get great Japanese food in Athens? Pity the Hotel is called the Grande Bretagne - will that change now? Where are we having lunch?0 -
It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.0
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4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.
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That the LDs appeal has little to do with Brexit (even though LD'ers are absolutely desperate for it to be so) except for some limited evidence it does in heavily Remain areas and with the most politically engaged.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
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Get well soon, Mike.0
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I hope the Rotherham result helps you recover OGH. Best wishes0
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6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.Patrick said:
4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.
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Actually it was, this was another case in the courts, can't imagine why it wasn't shared on PB.SandyRentool said:
6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.Patrick said:
4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2769373/sheffield-child-sex-ring/0 -
Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.0
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@rcs1000
On other Trump news: as I'm sure everyone has seen, there have been multiple court cases which have overruled the "No One from the Following Countries" Executive Order as relates to those people who have valid US visas. Now, I don't know if this is true, but Slate is carrying the story that Trump administration has unilaterally cancelled those visas.
I have a great deal of sympathy with the US wishing to impose extra checks on certain travellers (albeit, I suspect this will do little or nothing to protect the US from terrorism). But I worry quite a lot about the respect for the rule of law. There is separation of powers for a reason. The Houses of Congress are supposed to make laws. The President is supposed to run the country from day-to-day inside the rules set out by Congress. And the Courts are there to ensure the rule of law is followed.
While the US legal system is tortuous, respect for the rule of law is the most important protection citizens have. It protects them against both their fellow humans and their own government*. The long term success of the US is attributable to the institutions that have been established. Tearing them down to be replaced by one man's dictat does not bode well for the future.
* Throughout history, you are, of course, far more likely to be killed by your own government, than by other governments, or by your fellow man.
Reading the Slate story, it's notably detailed, which is rarely the case when they're just venting.
I agree that one of the most disturbing aspects of Trump's behaviour is his complete disregard of democratic norms, the rule of law amongst them. Constitutions are all very well, but they do not exist in a vacuum - that of the old USSR on the face of it guaranteed many freedoms.0 -
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.0
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Mid teens seems about right. Not sure about the disaster bit - given how low they have fallen anything in double figures would be good.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
UKIP really does need to be doing a lot better in places like Rotherham, doesn't it?0
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In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.0
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Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
Shane Whiteley looks like quite the intellectual.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually it was, this was another case in the courts, can't imagine why it wasn't shared on PB.SandyRentool said:
6. Yesterday wasn't the optimum day to be a muslim candidate in Rotherham.Patrick said:
4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2769373/sheffield-child-sex-ring/0 -
Why would you have policies?MarqueeMark said:
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.
All you need is an inspiring slogan ("hope, not hate", etc.)0 -
Labour weakness splits the left. The Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP are consequences of that rather than the other way round. (Not quite so true for the SNP but still to a large extent).Patrick said:
4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.0 -
That's because they're single issue obsessives who think that just because they voted once it seals the matter for all time. Utterly fed up of Leavers who seem to consider referendum result as Holy Writ.SouthamObserver said:In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.
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None of the above. That is their only purpose which is why they are interchangeable with UKIP.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
I've tweeted Miss Thornberry that, tyvm.SimonStClare said:
Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.SouthamObserver said:In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.
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Magnificent!SimonStClare said:
Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424
On other matters, I realised the effect of Trump this morning when the news story on something or other said: "The White House has said..." and I pondered that whereas for better or worse previously that would have indicated the considered, thoughtful voice of authority, now such pronouncements come from a strange type of unreal limbo. No more considered or authoritative (save of course for the executive powers it contains) than an internet tidbit.0 -
So you managed to name a Lib Dem policy.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
1p on tax for the NHS, and more joined up mental/social/physical health services.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.0 -
Fair amount of UKIP driftage in Stoke.. maybe the extrapolations from the by elections, plus Crick/OGH putting the boot into Nuttall?0
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The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.
The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.0 -
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.Patrick said:
I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.SouthamObserver said:In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.
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Diane's mystery illness explained? I hope you have an alibi for 4pm-7pm on Wednesday, Mike.OGH said:I’m just recovering from a nasty cold which has really knocked me out so not much time for analysis.
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laborensis venomi?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
Like every other 'policy' it will vary depending on audience and doorstep.AlastairMeeks said:
So you managed to name a Lib Dem policy.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP had a purpose - what is that purpose for the LibDems? Name a LibDem policy (other than trying to scupper Brexit against the majority verdict).Philip_Thompson said:
I believe that for the less politically engaged UKIP are interchangeable with the Lib Dems as the "none of the above" protest vote. If UKIP fall from 22 to virtually single digits then there is no reason the Lib Dems can't rise into the twenties.rcs1000 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013rottenborough said:It is going to be fascinating to see how the Libdems perform in the County elections in May. Could be a lot higher than their headline figure.
LDs NEV of 14%, but still held most of their seats. (352 -124)
What would be a good result?
I'd say that they will want to get something that is obviously in the high teens - say 16-17% - and that anything less would be a bit of a disaster.
UKIP got 22% last time around, and we have to reckon that's likely to decline. I'd be very surprised if they got more than about 10% this May.
Yay, a LibDem circlejerk thread! Haven't had one of those for ... oooh ...days, now.0 -
Yes I suppose that is a better way of describing it. If Labour weren't such a monumental clusterfuck then the LDs wouldn't be reviving so quickly. Either way lefty voters have nobody with a reasonable chance of forming a government to vote for.david_herdson said:
Labour weakness splits the left. The Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens, Plaid and the SNP are consequences of that rather than the other way round. (Not quite so true for the SNP but still to a large extent).Patrick said:
4. A LibDem revival resplits the left just as UKIP is dying due to having no reason for living.david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
5. Put your money on Mrs May for the next GE.
I would be delighted for Labour to die completely and for the LibDems to grow into a strong and credible Opposition. A Whig vs Tories revival.
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Peter Mandelson?Charles said:
laborensis venomi?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
I thought they were only a few mm long?SimonStClare said:
Just in case Ms Thornberry is a PB lurker, it's a Green Crab Spider (Diaea dorsata).TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
ttps://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/8274629173396234240 -
I said lefties.SouthamObserver said:
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.Patrick said:
I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.SouthamObserver said:In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.
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probably something like this:Charles said:
laborensis venomi?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424
http://www.uksafari.com/green_huntsman_spiders.htm0 -
If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"TheScreamingEagles said:In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.
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For anyone interested - Milo's book is back up to #1 on Amazon bestsellers - its not published until mid March.
https://www.amazon.com/Dangerous-Milo-Yiannopoulos/dp/1501173081
and his intv with Tucker - top rated cable news show now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALe9p1nn9TY0 -
Why is UKIP not thriving now?
1. They existed for a single purpose - a purpose now being legislated for.
2. Many northern WWC deplorables are deeply Eurosceptic but nonetheless decent normal moral people and UKIP still has a whiff of yuck about it. Brexit utterly legitimised Euroscepticism as the majority view (esp in England), but in so doing exposed the 'and what else do you believe' issue for UKIP.
3. UKIP was a one man band. The man is now a radio show host.
4. Their new leader is a scouser. Which will go down well in Liverpool but like warm vomit everywhere else.
5. Mrs May is doing a good job.0 -
Because they won. Wwc are probably thinking Labour led Corbyn is crap and want nothing to do with it. And Libdems are best centre left alternative. Ukip don't have policies on NHS, austerity ect.SouthamObserver said:
That doesn't explain UKIP's lower numbers in a place where they should be thriving if they really are hoovering up white working class Labour support.Patrick said:
I think the obvious conclusion is that non-Marxist, non-loony, non-extremist moderate lefties are giving up on Corbyn's Labour in droves. The LibDems offer a reasonably comfortable new political home.SouthamObserver said:In many parts of the country, Leave voters are less motivated than Remain voters seems the obvious conclusion here. Perhaps incumbent MPs who voted against Article 50 do not have as much to fear as we have all thought.
Also I suspect Labours new members are useless at door knocking they just wanted to vote for Corbyn whilst libdem new members are motivated.0 -
Yes. But we always knew their ground game was crap.SouthamObserver said:UKIP really does need to be doing a lot better in places like Rotherham, doesn't it?
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"The lime Green Crab Spider is adept at ambushing insect prey in flowers, striking when they least expect it..."TheScreamingEagles said:I'm sure this could be used as a simile for something.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/827462917339623424
Well, it's certainly true that no one expects much from Emily Thornberry.
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I think too many people are looking through the prism of Brexit too much of the time. If you are fed up with people letting their dogs crap in your street, the Leave/Remain position of your council candidates isn't top priority when you cast your vote.0
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Ms Vance,
"There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:"
Excellent summary of European meetings. I've been to several in Brussels and elsewhere (we went to some in Schipol airport - day meetings), I was there only for scientific advice but it was fun to observe.
The relationships were even more marked. We get on with the Scandinavians as they like the British humour even if they don't share it. The Dutch too. The Germans know they can do mutually beneficial business with us and appreciate that. The French are pleasant, but awkward on principle, and regard us with suspicion. The Italians? Who knows, they're always out glugging wine somewhere.0 -
...combined with the fact that Leave won on the back of a lot people who were voting for the first time/first time in a long while, and these people wouldn't even know there was such thing as council by electionsAlastairMeeks said:The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.
The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.0 -
Forecast for May CC locals , Lib Dems to gain around 170 seats and overall control of Cornwall and Somerset .
Council by elections in the next 2 weeks should see 3 Lib Dem gains from Conservatives0 -
Up to a point, but the Lib Dems are recovering from a very low base in local government. They currently hold 1,860 seats, compared to 4-5,000 throughout the period 1993-2010. It's similar to the Conservatives' recovery in local government during the 1997-2003 period.AlastairMeeks said:The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.
The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.0 -
International Spectator
BREAKING: Trump will today sign executive order related to the financial sector, including an order to review the post-GFC Dodd-Frank law0 -
Worth mentioning that in the party emails I received ahead of these by elections, they were very much billed as Labour v UKIP. No mention of a threat from the LibDems.
Sunderland, then Rotherham. Some head scratching required by northern Labour strategists.0 -
Paris latest : 250 people locked in the Louvre and being let out in small groups after vetting0
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Is he also planning on putting his own face on the $100 bill?PlatoSaid said:International Spectator
BREAKING: Trump will today sign executive order related to the financial sector, including an order to review the post-GFC Dodd-Frank law0 -
Just logging in to BF I realise I am very green on Stephen Kinnock to be next Lab leader. I am now (at 21s - 25s on PP) green on La Thornberry also. Her White Van Man error will be seen as the least of Lab's problems in the months to come - and she has been v impressive (all things relative) in the HoC of late.0
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and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.
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Maybe I was right all along and Nigel reached the parts other UKIPpers couldnt reach!!
Would be sad to see the meme that he was rubbish/put people off die out though, and you'd all have to admit you were wrong so obvs it wont happen!0 -
@sharpeangle: S London betting shop client bets £10,000 on Marine Le Pen in French Election for £32,000 return. Now 15/8 2nd fav from 5/2. #Marine20170
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I was in Holland to do a presentation to a group of my Dutch and Belgium customers on Wednesday. The objective was how we can increase our business, in particular our business in Germany. The cultural differences are subtle but significant, but were the cause of lively and interesting debate.CD13 said:Ms Vance,
"There was a very funny book called (IIRC) 'Mind Your Manners' which described a typical European meeting:"
Excellent summary of European meetings. I've been to several in Brussels and elsewhere (we went to some in Schipol airport - day meetings), I was there only for scientific advice but it was fun to observe.
The relationships were even more marked. We get on with the Scandinavians as they like the British humour even if they don't share it. The Dutch too. The Germans know they can do mutually beneficial business with us and appreciate that. The French are pleasant, but awkward on principle, and regard us with suspicion. The Italians? Who knows, they're always out glugging wine somewhere.0 -
Which is nice, but the Conservatives have almost five times as many local councillors as the Lib Dems do.MrsB said:
and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.
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Kudos for sticking your neck out.MarkSenior said:Forecast for May CC locals , Lib Dems to gain around 170 seats and overall control of Cornwall and Somerset .
Council by elections in the next 2 weeks should see 3 Lib Dem gains from Conservatives0 -
Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM0
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And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".GeoffM said:
If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"TheScreamingEagles said:In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.
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Could libdems actually gain stoke if turnout us around 40%?0
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It was always obvious that they had to be. The EU position was not only unworkable, it was directly contrary to what Article 50 says.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM
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gives us something to aim at....Sean_F said:
Which is nice, but the Conservatives have almost five times as many local councillors as the Lib Dems do.MrsB said:
and yet if you look at by-elections since June, who is it who have gained comfortably more seats than all the other parties put together, many with very large swings? Oh yes, the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:Let's get some perspective about the LibDem "surge" - they had one spectacularly good result, came 7th in another, and couldn't even find a candidate in a the third.
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Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened itRichard_Nabavi said:
It was always obvious that they had to be. The EU position was not only unworkable, it was directly contrary to what Article 50 says.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky reporting that it has been agreed in Malta that the UK exit talks will be alongside the trade talks, so progress for TM
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Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?0
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Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)OldKingCole said:
And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".GeoffM said:
If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"TheScreamingEagles said:In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.
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LOL. I said it wasn't the most cataclysmically interesting thing that has ever happened, and I was not a leave voter (I don't know what WTW is) and HYUFD made what I think is the valid point that LD successes at local level don't necessarily upscale. So let's wait n see till after 23 February. I do have to say, though, that I don't have to google to see if it's Farage or Falage every time I refer to him, nor indeed Nuttall/Nuttarr. When last did a party leader have such poor name recognition?AlastairMeeks said:The desperation among the WTW Leavers to minimise, explain away and otherwise ignore the considerable local successes that the Lib Dems are chalking up is fascinating.
The explanation that is likely to be correct is the obvious one: the Lib Dems have latched onto a cause - opposing Brexit - that motivates sufficient numbers of activists and voters to do what's necessary to win local seats.0 -
I would also suggest that the LD's often have to rely on a combination of local circumstances. In the Rotherham ward they won, their candidate was a local doctor , the Labour councillor had resigned following allegations of sexual assault and Labour went on to select an Asian candidate in an a 90% white area which had elected a BNP councillor a few years earlier. Very propitious for the LDs really!david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?
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I'm not sure I'd describe it as a strong hand, exactly, but we do have interests in common.Big_G_NorthWales said:Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it
The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.0 -
No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?
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Nice to see a mention of John Mole. Also wrote the excellent book "I Was a Potato Oligarch: Travels and Travails in the New Russia", which I heartily recommend.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Was-Potato-Oligarch-Travels-Travails/dp/1857885090
That one is part travelogue and part business book, but better than the vast majority of travelogues as his attempts to build a business there meant he saw much more of "The System" (or at the time, more precisely, The Chaos) than a traditional tourist would manage. And living there let him experience more of the local culture, too - his run-ins with the Chechen gangsters who controlled the vegetable trade were memorable, but also various weird youth subcultures that were flourising in post-1991 Russia.
One of his complaints in that book is that all the Russian businessmen he met seemed to have read "Mind your manners"... distributed by photocopy.0 -
The high water mark for the party was 62 MPs, in 2005. If Labour collapse, they might well exceed this, but it should probably be considered the maximum achievable, over the course of several elections.Charles said:
Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)OldKingCole said:
And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".GeoffM said:
If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"TheScreamingEagles said:In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.
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Did say there had to be some realism, even in dreams. Even SeanT's books have some tenuous connection to actual events.Charles said:
Conclusive proof that Lib Dems can only ever govern in Coalition - not acceptable to a majority of the British people (n=2)OldKingCole said:
And as Tim Farron strides into 10 Downing Street as the new head of a Coalition Government (has to be some realism, even in dreams) GeoffM grumps that 'they really should have done better than that".GeoffM said:
If a LibDem manages to tie his own shoelaces without a rent boy crapping on a glass coffee table above his head then the usual suspects on here will declare that as a "very good night for the LibDems"TheScreamingEagles said:In 2013, in the English locals, the Lib Dems lost 124 councillors, I suspect if they have a net gain of 125 councillors or more in May this year, it'll be classed as a very good night for the Lib Dems.
There won't, of course be a single party LibDem government because in their first term as largest party they'll implement PR.0 -
Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?
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Mr. Eagles, sounds like you protest too much0
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No, she does worse against Macron in round 2 than against Fillon.Patrick said:
Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?
However, if Macron were to implode, who knows whether she could come through?0 -
0
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The Lib Dem machinery in this part of the country is actually nothing more than some dedicated local party members getting out onto the doorstep...justin124 said:
I would also suggest that the LD's often have to rely on a combination of local circumstances. In the Rotherham ward they won, their candidate was a local doctor , the Labour councillor had resigned following allegations of sexual assault and Labour went on to select an Asian candidate in an a 90% white area which had elected a BNP councillor a few years earlier. Very propitious for the LDs really!david_herdson said:Aren't the messages to take from the results:
1. That the country is crying out for an opposition (as is Rotherham),
2. That the LDs' toxicity is massively down among Lab voters, at least at local / Westminster by-election level. Whether this would transfer to a general election - where different considerations are in play - is another matter.
3. That the LD by-election machine, where deployed, is hugely effective - though that effectiveness will also be relative to other parties' machines and efforts.
?0 -
FPT
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.0 -
A rare occasion when I'm in entire agreement with Malcolm.malcolmg said:FPT
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.0 -
I agree - without Trump or Putin or Islamic Terrorism we might have been in for a 'pour encourage les autres' exit deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.Big_G_NorthWales said:Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it
Now I think they'll want to get it sorted out as quickly, efficiently and painlessly as possible - for all concerned. After we've gone the've got a €10 billion hole to plug.....0 -
That feels like a policy we should all get behind.malcolmg said:FPT
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.0 -
If Fillon limps through to the run-off, and then more brown stuff hits the air blower, a voter strike could see Le Pen win.Patrick said:
Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?
Yes, a couple of ifs in there, but possible.0 -
Depends how you define rubbish I suppose. Hard to deny he polarised opposition against him when standing himself, obviously he did well for UKIP as a whole though.isam said:Maybe I was right all along and Nigel reached the parts other UKIPpers couldnt reach!!
Would be sad to see the meme that he was rubbish/put people off die out though, and you'd all have to admit you were wrong so obvs it wont happen!0 -
Dr Sunil will be demanding veggie haggis.Animal_pb said:
That feels like a policy we should all get behind.malcolmg said:FPT
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.0 -
It's not all about the money, you know.CarlottaVance said:
I agree - without Trump or Putin or Islamic Terrorism we might have been in for a 'pour encourage les autres' exit deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
The effect of Trump on this is complex, but on balance he probably does help focus the minds of our EU friends on the importance of remaining on good terms with a large economy on their doorstep.Big_G_NorthWales said:Reality is dawning on the EU. We have a very strong hand in negotiations and if anything Trump has strengthened it
Now I think they'll want to get it sorted out as quickly, efficiently and painlessly as possible - for all concerned. After we've gone the've got a €10 billion hole to plug.....0 -
It's an odd one. Le Pen needs Fillon to do well enough to be her opponent but not well enough to beat her!SandyRentool said:
If Fillon limps through to the run-off, and then more brown stuff hits the air blower, a voter strike could see Le Pen win.Patrick said:
Does Fillon's demise not improve her chances though?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if Ms Le Pen wins, both from a betting and political position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, was that you making the bet on Le Pen?
Yes, a couple of ifs in there, but possible.0 -
Yeah, but we can kill that in sub-committee. Of more importance is the fine print requiring English fish & chip shops to serve deep fired haggis on demand.SandyRentool said:
Dr Sunil will be demanding veggie haggis.Animal_pb said:
That feels like a policy we should all get behind.malcolmg said:FPT
Blue_rog said:
» show previous quotes
Because Brexit will kill everything. We will be in a desolate wasteland living off turnips
Nothing wrong with turnips if combined with haggis and tatties, world would be a better place if that was on all menus.
EDIT: ...fried. I have the same bug as OGH, right now...0 -
A fresh legal challenge to the government’s plans for leaving the European Union has been blocked by the high court.
It was brought by campaigners arguing that parliament must separately legislate to remove the UK from the European Economic Area (EEA) and the single market.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/03/fresh-brexit-legal-challenge-blocked-high-court-article-127?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0