politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll
Comments
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Probably not, but the story did provoke one of the funniest Private Eye covers I've ever seen.matt said:
Charles did that?Sean_F said:
And, having an affair with Paul Burrell.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
Charles bending over some plants saying "You chaps don't think I'm gay do you?" And all the plants reply "No Sir, No Sir."0 -
Classic US CEO behaviour, particularly with no counterweight Chairman.logical_song said:
He's used to issuing orders and being obeyed. He's used to 'Yes' men.Scott_P said:0 -
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.0 -
If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.Sean_F said:
On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.
Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.0 -
If Turnbull gets ousted for Abbott or another rightwinger why would there be another election? The Parliament still has almost 3 years to run and the Coalition has a majority, albeit a small oneDura_Ace said:Trump could finish Turnbull if reneges on the refugee deal. Turnbull is already dealing with a good old fashioned donations scandal and dire polls. If he gets tipped out, it won't be for Abbott but probably ScoMo and then an early election which the ALP will win. An ALP government will be absoutely antithetical to whatever Trumps wants as a matter of principle. He can kiss goodbye to the proposed US base in the Northern Territories for a start.
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But based on what I've heard so far, it's likely you're right (as it stands).Lucian_Fletcher said:
If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.Sean_F said:
On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.
Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.
One major caveat is that the News Letter seems to be finding more every day on RHI. I know that some elected members in the DUP are seriously unhappy about the amount of justifiable flak that they are taking. If one of them jumps ship unexpectedly, the dam might break.0 -
Yes. Is this the most favourite switches ever?isam said:
This has got to be the best by election betting heat in years hasn't it? Practically 50/50 at all timesLordWakefield said:
UKIP/Labour cross over on Betfair again.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Tower hamlets is a flagship Labour council.Scott_P said:
*shudders* I hate to think what is seen as bad practice.0 -
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That is the whole basis of Monarchy though. Wonder how many Monarchists there really are, as opposed to those who admire HM QE2?Casino_Royale said:
Charles thinks he matters because of who he is, and doesn't realise people listen to him only because of what he is.Slackbladder said:
Me too. I'm only a monarchist as long as the system works, and the HoS STFU and isn't a politician.Casino_Royale said:
I'm a monarchist who's exceedingly pissed off at how Charles is going to give monarchy a very bad name and ruin it, and is too stupid to realise it.williamglenn said:
I'm not a republican per se, but if it came to that, we shouldn't pass up the opportunity to create a federal UK (assuming Scotland hasn't left by then). I'd solve the 'England's too big' problem by reverting to a version of the historic kingdoms of England.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
He's acquired a number of certainties in his life about how the world works, absolutely believes he's right and - to put it mildly - doesn't exactly relish challenge upon them.
He brings out the Roundhead in me.0 -
Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.0
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It's pretty depressing stuff. It appears that the DUP and SF can be as corrupt/flexible with funds* as they want and their vote share barely moves. Never mind rotten boroughs, this is rotten politics populated by people who constantly want London/Dublin to step in and solve the things they should solve themselves. A childlike pocket province with tantruming, ultra-parochial politicians.Lucian_Fletcher said:
If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.Sean_F said:
On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.
Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.
*delete to choice0 -
No it wouldn't, especially if the Tories win Copeland on the same night. Stoke would never vote Tory in a million years only UKIP can challenge from the right there though unless the membership of Labour has a sharp shift in opinion I think Corbyn would still survivewilliamglenn said:If UKIP can win a by-election after May's hard-Brexit and embrace of Trump it would be a terrible result for her.
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And so it begins.CarlottaVance said:I'm sure Malc will be delighted:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15066076.Higher_taxes_agreed_in_SNP_Green_budget_deal/?ref=twtrec0 -
The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.0 -
In other words, respect is earned rather than his by right.Sean_F said:
The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
HMQ understands this and I can't think of a Briton (any Briton) I respect more.0 -
Mr. Dean, entirely possible to be pro-democracy and think a democratically elected leader is an oaf. Likewise monarchy.0
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I did - thanks!nunu said:
far more socially?Mortimer said:
No. it means you're massively out of touch with Britain. People really dislike the EU and are, in many areas, far more socially than the Tories, let alone the parties of the left.williamglenn said:If UKIP can win a by-election after May's hard-Brexit and embrace of Trump it would be a terrible result for her.
you must mean socially conservative.0 -
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!
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The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.Sean_F said:
The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.0 -
The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?0
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That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
I agree.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.
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Good afternoon Trumpsters.
William is a European. I am an Elizabethan. She is the bedrock of my memory, going all the way back to her flying visit through Hopwas when I was five. I admire and respect her very, very much. Charles? Nah. He makes me come over all Mme Defarge.0 -
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!0 -
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Good afternoon, Mr. M.0
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Astute post of the day.Brom said:brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
From a psychological point of view I can imagine in a place like Stoke where people vote Labour no matter what for generation after generation it might be an effective tactic to tell people that the masses are voting UKIP this time instead in order to break the cycle and hope some kind of groupthink will push people towards the purples.
Unlike in a lot of constituencies I don't think having UKIP ahead will motivate Labour voters to come out in droves to keep out Nuttall. The Labour vote is diminishing, old school and clearly quite soft in Stoke & very different to the 'stop the right at all costs' sort of Labour voter we see in London and Brighton.
Bang on. This is about UKIP breaking social norms.
Labour do not know what is going to hit them with the out of touch, apparently unpatriotic hard left in charge.0 -
Well I don't wish to be unduly harsh on the party that gave us David Coburn, they do have their positives.Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
They may not agree with what is happening but they accept it. That is the key difference.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!0 -
Indeed. Frankly anyone as next Monarch is going to be a step down.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dean, entirely possible to be pro-democracy and think a democratically elected leader is an oaf. Likewise monarchy.
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How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
Source?FF43 said:The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
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Is it actually him who demands all this though, or some fawning minion trying to make a name for himself?TheScreamingEagles said:
The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.Sean_F said:
The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.0 -
She works very hard, and has supreme stamina and stoicism.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.
I saw her do 4 hours of presentations to graduates at the University of London (standing) and giving a personal word and smile to each and every one, including my wife.
I was exhausted just watching it - waiting 90 minutes for my wife to go on stage - and I was comfortably seated.
She had three other appointments that afternoon and evening.0 -
Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/steve-bannon-donald-trump-war-south-china-sea-no-doubtPhilip_Thompson said:
Source?FF43 said:The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
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She will be comforted to know she can rely on Labour Leaverottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!
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Well he did complain fiercely about something trivial, so I think it is definitely him.Stark_Dawning said:
Is it actually him who demands all this though, or some fawning minion trying to make a name for himself?TheScreamingEagles said:
The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.Sean_F said:
The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.matt said:
We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.Casino_Royale said:
He really does boil my piss.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1
Hurrah for constitutional crises
You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
I'd pick Anne, then William.
I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.0 -
Osbourne, Soubry and Morgan are sat on the backbench space once occupied by the large arse of the Great Sulk himself,Ted Heath. And a fat lot of good it did him. Maybe they will learn.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!
(BTW nice typo - Sourby.....)
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Charles (or King George VII as he reportedly wishes to be called on ascending the throne - good luck with that one) appears to have an incredibly high opinion of himself, which unfortunately is not shared by the general public, many of whom view him as rather odd and out of touch. I wonder if he continues to require his toothpaste to be squeezed out of its tube by one of his manservants.Slackbladder said:
Me too. I'm only a monarchist as long as the system works, and the HoS STFU and isn't a politician.Casino_Royale said:
I'm a monarchist who's exceedingly pissed off at how Charles is going to give monarchy a very bad name and ruin it, and is too stupid to realise it.williamglenn said:
I'm not a republican per se, but if it came to that, we shouldn't pass up the opportunity to create a federal UK (assuming Scotland hasn't left by then). I'd solve the 'England's too big' problem by reverting to a version of the historic kingdoms of England.Casino_Royale said:I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:
He's acquired a number of certainties in his life about how the world works, absolutely believes he's right and - to put it mildly - doesn't exactly relish challenge upon them.
He brings out the Roundhead in me.0 -
Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.0 -
@Philip_Thompson: Source?FF43 said:The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws
I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!0 -
Mr. Mortimer, quite agree on Morgan.
Mr. Dean, indeed. The longer HM reigns, the better.0 -
What will she do at Third Reading then?Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. Putney, to be fair, many monarchs have taken a new, regnal name. And I can see why someone wouldn't want to be King Charles, given the current 50% decapitation rate.0
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Mr. Thompson, tequila slammers?0
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Pinning all their hopes on the Tories as the champions of their hopes and 'ambitions'? Excellent at that.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
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Morgan labours under the delusion that she's not only May's equal, but better.Mortimer said:
Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!0 -
LOL! First words: "We do not approach these negotiations expecting failure..."Scott_P said:0 -
She and Corbyn will have a pre-arranged trip to see collective farms on the outskirts of Dresden. On a motorbike.Philip_Thompson said:
What will she do at Third Reading then?Scott_P said:0 -
And in case anyone thinks being at war with China is far-fetched, this is essentially the same rhetoric as at the start of the Bush administration about war with Iraq (and before 9/11).FF43 said:
@Philip_Thompson: Source?FF43 said:The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws
I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!0 -
Set up to get the UK out of the EUTheuniondivvie said:
Pinning all their hopes on the Tories as the champions of their hopes and 'ambitions'? Excellent at that.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
Get Referendum
Win Referendum
Job done
Watch and learn!0 -
I suppose I need to read it. In my experience any prospectus that sets out first and foremost what it is not going to do, is exactly what it ends up doing.williamglenn said:
LOL! First words: "We do not approach these negotiations expecting failure..."Scott_P said:0 -
You find yourself a ton underwater in Stoke.
Aaron Banks opens a door showing a good poll for UKIP...0 -
Mr. 43, worth noting Iraq and China are, shall we say, militarily divergent.0
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Its also pretty much the same situation as under Obama, the likely key factor isn't how big Trump's mouth is, but how many islands that other countries think belong to them China takes over and turns into missile bases or airfields.FF43 said:
And in case anyone thinks being at war with China is far-fetched, this is essentially the same rhetoric as at the start of the Bush administration about war with Iraq (and before 9/11).FF43 said:
@Philip_Thompson: Source?FF43 said:The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws
I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!0 -
But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?
Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?
Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?
Does anyone in Labour have a clue?0 -
On trade. On all other matters, no say what so ever.Scott_P said:witter.com/faisalislam/status/827137701656670213
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Take what you want and have someone else pay for it......Animal_pb said:
And so it begins.CarlottaVance said:I'm sure Malc will be delighted:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15066076.Higher_taxes_agreed_in_SNP_Green_budget_deal/?ref=twtrec0 -
He was out of power in 2015. Being well-up for a post-Brexit trade deal then showed a spooky power of foresight and preparedness!Casino_Royale said:Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.0 -
All the people sacked or resigning yesterday will be back in office by then, so he is clear to declare another three line whip and let them spend another afternoon on the back benches.MarqueeMark said:But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?
Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?
Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?
Does anyone in Labour have a clue?0 -
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Trudeau is no Republican unlike Turnbull, he got on very well with Wills and KateCasino_Royale said:Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.0 -
Good news about the BoE forecasts, at least the wheels will keep turning this year.
I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements plus just a smear of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.
Humph.0 -
This is getting farcical. Next there will reports that Trump will be signing an executive order making pi=3.0Scott_P said:0 -
Tragic that I am, I have actually just skim-read the Brexit White Paper. It is a bit selective in the way that it presents certain things and is absurdly optimistic on non-EU trade, but as a basis form which to work I was very pleasantly surprised. The government is certainly very keen to avoid a cliff edge, which is very encouraging. It's well worth a read:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/588948/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf
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A sentiment shared by precisely zero people.Casino_Royale said:
Morgan labours under the delusion that she's not only May's equal, but better.Mortimer said:
Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.MarkHopkins said:
It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.
And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.
I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!0 -
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
When the boss (i.e. the people) gives you duff instructions there's only so much you can do...John_M said:Good news about the BoE forecasts, at least the wheels will keep turning this year.
I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements, with just a hint of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.
Humph.0 -
Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.Scott_P said:0 -
Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.Casino_Royale said:Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.0 -
I'm waiting for the Executive Order on the witch trials. That will be fun.Stark_Dawning said:
Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces up and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.Scott_P said:0 -
0
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I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
But they didn't, and we don't, so we'll never know.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
I am sure if Scotland gained independence, the SNP would feel they had succeeded, even if it was achieved with the help of politicians from other parties0 -
On the whole not likely to have views on things like votes for prisoners either.David_Evershed said:0 -
So pretty much like every arbitration clause I've ever seen for resolving disputes between international parties....David_Evershed said:0 -
Yes, but he was royally unpopular.logical_song said:
Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.Casino_Royale said:Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.
Did find a couple of good things in the white paper; the commitment to workers' rights and the environment:
"...is committed to ensuring we become the first generation to leave the environment in a better state than we found it."
Given I grew up in an area where the local rivers occasionally caught fire and were utterly lifeless, this is an aspiration I can get behind.0 -
Wait and see what he actually signs.Scott_P said:
It is worth remembering that earlier in the week there were reports he was going to roll back on workers rights for LGBT federal employees and in fact he made a point of emphasising his support for Obama's EO which gave them protection. He is many things, almost all of them bad, but I have not seen signs that Trump is homophobic.
I hope I am not proved wrong on this.0 -
https://www.thenation.com/article/leaked-draft-of-trumps-religious-freedom-order-reveals-sweeping-plans-to-legalize-discrimination/Stark_Dawning said:
Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces up and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.Scott_P said:htps://twitter.com/siobhanfenton/status/827133756259573760
It is apparently a Northern-Ireland-Bakery deal: i.e. not outlawing stuff but making it legit to discriminate against people for doing stuff (I ain't employin'/bakin' cakes for no L/G/B/T/whatever).
I never thought things would get this mad, this quickly.
0 -
Worse, he denuded the Tory Party of any talent who weren't ultra-loyal yes men. So much so that when he resigned in November 2015, there were no viable successors. There will be an election for new leader in May 2017! 18 months without a permanent leader...logical_song said:
Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.Casino_Royale said:Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.
He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.0 -
Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrestedScott_P said:0 -
So even then UKIP needed the Tories to win referendums/achieve ambitions.MarqueeMark said:
I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
Bit of a pattern emerging..0 -
There's nothing much to it, but I'm not at all surprised. On every question of importance, it says that 'that will be a matter for negotiation'. That seems to me to be a simple statement of the obvious, which is why all those calls from Labour and others for more clarity don't make sense.John_M said:I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements plus just a smear of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.
Humph.
It's quite a useful summary of some of the basic statistics, however.0 -
I see that Ronnie Campbell turned up to vote after cancer treatment.
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/im-one-lucky-man-veteran-125377580 -
Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.MarqueeMark said:
I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
0
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Potential virtue signalling, it doesnt exist at the moment, and might not exist at all, so also potential Fake Newsdixiedean said:
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Geldof is a wank but more odious than Farage is a little harsh.John_M said:
Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.MarqueeMark said:
I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.0 -
I think they might abstain.MarqueeMark said:But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?
Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?
Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?
Does anyone in Labour have a clue?0 -
This Ukip are shite/Farage never won an election shite is up there with Jilted John when it comes to missing the point:Theuniondivvie said:
So even then UKIP needed the Tories to win referendums/achieve ambitions.MarqueeMark said:
I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
Bit of a pattern emerging..
Oh, she is cruel and heartless
to pack me for Gordon
Just cos he's better looking than me
Just cos he's cool and sexy
But I know he's a moron, Gordon is a moron
Gordon is a moron, Gordon is a moron.
In the same way as Trump is POTUS even if he is an odious joke, so Farage engineered Brexit even if he is an odious joke.0 -
Geldof working hard for the Leave campaign.Theuniondivvie said:
Geldof is a wank but more odious than Farage is a little harsh.John_M said:
Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.MarqueeMark said:
I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.logical_song said:
If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.isam said:
How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?Theuniondivvie said:
That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.brokenwheel said:
Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.TheScreamingEagles said:
To build narrative and momentum.brokenwheel said:I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.
In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
0 -
White Paper: "Our WTO membership will form the bedrock on which we build our future trade relationships."
Perhaps May would have been better off trying to get a 100% commitment to the WTO from Trump instead of NATO.0 -
"Macron's political movement En Marche recently admitted that they were successfully hacked in October. "It took us at least one full night of work to repair the damage. We won't go into detail, but we take digital security very seriously," an En Marche spokeswoman told France 24 last month."0
