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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll

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  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    Breach of the vice laws? Or because you think it's funny to tick "yes" to the "committed acts of genocide" question?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    What is the purpose of such an Executive Order? It sounds rather like issuing a fiat that we disapprove of Gravity.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Nobody likes Gravity. It just gets you down.

    Gravity has brought down a lot of planes.. Lots of fatalities.

    It's about time someone stood up to gravity.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    There seems to be a consensus in Europe as well as the UK that a precipitous shift to the Eurozone is not in the interests of the rEU. My take is that those same risks make an orderly move more, not less pressing, as the EU will want to have control and not be beholden to a foreign regime. This is regardless of any commercial benefits coming from a domestic financial services industry.

    That's a good point, but I would expect that, if it doesn't happen in the fairly immediate aftermath of Brexit, it will never happen. It will always be a difficult transition and they'll have plenty of other things to worry about.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    Charles said:

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    Breach of the vice laws? Or because you think it's funny to tick "yes" to the "committed acts of genocide" question?
    I would have thought TSE's dress sense (or lack thereof) would be the biggest issue
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333

    CD13 said:

    Mr Isam,

    You really don't need to be upset by the bitter Remainers on here. They are few in number, are probably fervent Internationalists and have seen their world dissolve before their eyes. They are also in a small minority even among the Remain voters. And to make it worse, probably live in London,

    Have some sympathy, man. Think how you'd feel in those circumstances.

    Nah. I am reasonably chilled about it all. I am in secure employment with as much overtime as I choose to do and a gold plated pension, just a couple of years away. It is not me that faces redundancy, and if it all goes tits up then I can buy up assets on the cheap, or go to work in the Gulf.

    Let the Leavers enjoy their sovereignty
    I'm not entirely sure that I will let any mention of the word sovereignty pass without me quoting the White Paper (prop: D Davis, arch Brexiter):

    "Whilst Parliament has remained sovereign throughout our membership of the EU, it has not always felt like that."

    I suppose it's more relevant, and will be applied more often to PB Leavers.
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    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: Unless I'm missing something, Brexit White Paper does *not* rule out CJEU being forum for dispute resolution in UK:EU trade relations.

    As I pointed out a couple of months back, the CJEU will play a crucial role in the Unified Patent Court system, which the UK has said it will be a part of. Presumably, something similar will apply to other areas. Crucially, though, it will be a referral point, not an adjudicator - that is, its role will be to decide on points of law not to decide cases. That is, it will say that EU law should be interpreted in such and such a way; it will not say that this patent is valid or that one has been infringed. If you see what I mean.
  • Options

    ..... financial services passports. Both UK and EU firms benefit from these arrangements – there are over 5,000 UK firms that utilise passports to provide services across the rest of the EU, but around 8,000 European firms that use passports to provide services into the UK.

    "but" around 8,000 EU firms.....

    I'd like to see the turnover figures for the 5,000 UK firms versus the 8,000 EU27 firms.

    That we have 5,000 firms whilst the other 27 have 8,000 firms is an indication of the importance of the Financial Services industry to the UK.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Topping,

    "What the fuck is that if not internationalist?"

    Your quote concerns International trade, and trade only. If the EU was only about trade, I suspect we'd still be inside it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    tlg86 said:

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    The last time I entered the US it took me 20 minutes. I don't know what all the fuss is about.
    I've had two minutes, and I've had five hours. Usually it's fairly painless.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    rkrkrk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    What is the purpose of such an Executive Order? It sounds rather like issuing a fiat that we disapprove of Gravity.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Nobody likes Gravity. It just gets you down.

    Gravity has brought down a lot of planes.. Lots of fatalities.

    It's about time someone stood up to gravity.
    OTOH how many planes would have managed to land successfully without it?
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    Breach of the vice laws? Or because you think it's funny to tick "yes" to the "committed acts of genocide" question?
    I would have thought TSE's dress sense (or lack thereof) would be the biggest issue
    My fashion sense is brilliant, I once wore a pair of luminous red shoes and people judge me on that alone.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    Breach of the vice laws? Or because you think it's funny to tick "yes" to the "committed acts of genocide" question?
    I would have thought TSE's dress sense (or lack thereof) would be the biggest issue
    Poor dress sense is no bar to entry to America surely? indeed it seems compulsory.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Remember, it's only pre-marital sex if you actually end up getting married one day.
    Getting twitchy Robert? BoE says 2% now.
    On the contrary, given their forecasting skills...
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    What is the purpose of such an Executive Order? It sounds rather like issuing a fiat that we disapprove of Gravity.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Nobody likes Gravity. It just gets you down.

    Gravity has brought down a lot of planes.. Lots of fatalities.

    It's about time someone stood up to gravity.
    OTOH how many planes would have managed to land successfully without it?
    Alternative facts.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    CD13 said:

    Mr Topping,

    "What the fuck is that if not internationalist?"

    Your quote concerns International trade, and trade only. If the EU was only about trade, I suspect we'd still be inside it.

    How about this for a definition, then?

    "a person who advocates or believes in cooperation and understanding between nations"
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    matt said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I hope Big G's fishy inlaw who opposes independence & supports Brexit but is a lifelong member of the SNP is looking in.

    https://twitter.com/PaulaHoneyRose/status/827150097502830592

    Tis interesting that we gain more from common fisheries than we lose...
    Wait, they catch more in our waters...
    British fishermen have been shafted - less by the EU than our own governments who traded away their interest for other more lucrative or politically better connected causes. I doubt that's going to change post-Brexit. We need Denmark and Spain to agree our trading arrangements, with Spain also having a big say over Gibraltar. Not a problem - have the fish from our waters. The difference now is that our Brexit supporting farmers will join them as chips to be bargained away. They really didn't know what they were voting for.
    British fishermen also knowingly sold their quotas to offshore companies, pocketed the proceeds and expect HMG to reclaim them for said fishermen.
    Yes.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2017
    Just fyi, everyone, while you're wibbling on about stuff that doesn't really matter

    https://www.theatlas.com/charts/r1cg1VCPg
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    I think we'll get a pretty decent deal from the EU. It'll be more expensive and take a bit more time to do business in Europe, but broadly things will remain the same. From the White Paper it even looks like there will be a fudge around immigration. The much bigger issue is our trading relationships elsewhere in the world. I am much less sanguine about those.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    What is the purpose of such an Executive Order? It sounds rather like issuing a fiat that we disapprove of Gravity.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Nobody likes Gravity. It just gets you down.

    Gravity has brought down a lot of planes.. Lots of fatalities.

    It's about time someone stood up to gravity.
    OTOH how many planes would have managed to land successfully without it?
    First Law of Aviation: Take-off is optional; landing is obligatory*

    * Some possible exceptions near Bermuda.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Topping,

    How about this for a definition. "Brexiteer: A person of superior intellect who calmly watches extreme Remainers have a hissy fit."

    I quite like that one.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    You all want a good giggle?

    I'm flying to New York for a short visit at the end of the month.

    What would me the mid price of how long I'm questioned for by the authorities at the airport?

    The last time I entered the US it took me 20 minutes. I don't know what all the fuss is about.
    I've had two minutes, and I've had five hours. Usually it's fairly painless.
    What I was getting at is that I arrived by land at Niagara Falls the last time I went to the US. They were a bit taken aback when we turned up at 8pm, but they let us in after a few questions.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Blue_rog said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is getting farcical. Next there will reports that Trump will be signing an executive order making pi=3.0
    All he has to do is invoke bill #246 of the 1897 sitting of the Indiana General Assembly, (with a small codicil)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    Charles said:

    Just fyi, everyone, while you're wibbling on about stuff that doesn't really matter

    https://www.theatlas.com/charts/r1cg1VCPg

    In other words, you pay €0.95 for a bond that pays out at €1.00 in July.

    The 10 year bond has barely shifted: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:
    The tweet / headline is a being a little misleading by missing out the (alleged) first part of the statement, "protects the tax-exempt status of any organization that “believes, speaks, or acts (or declines to act) in accordance with the belief that..."

    In other words Team Trump are trying to find a way to play to the Christian Conservative lot that say its not fair we were forced to do a x or y for a gay couple and thats against our religious beliefs.

    I can't see how it stands up to legal challenge....provided the leak is true.

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Remember, it's only pre-marital sex if you actually end up getting married one day.
    Rather cunningly... No mention made of extra-marital sex.
    So he's covered himself fairly well then.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    weejonnie said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is getting farcical. Next there will reports that Trump will be signing an executive order making pi=3.0
    All he has to do is invoke bill #246 of the 1897 sitting of the Indiana General Assembly, (with a small codicil)
    That is exactly what I was referring to. Well done! :lol:
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    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    edited February 2017

    I think we'll get a pretty decent deal from the EU. It'll be more expensive and take a bit more time to do business in Europe, but broadly things will remain the same. From the White Paper it even looks like there will be a fudge around immigration. The much bigger issue is our trading relationships elsewhere in the world. I am much less sanguine about those.

    The issue is always about investment. People don't realise that investment decisions are often competitive and marginal. Just because you can feasibly do business from the UK it doesn't mean you will choose the UK as your business location. If it is more expensive for everyone to do business from the UK than elsewhere, everyone will go elsewhere. In any case businesses usually like to be based in the markets they are selling to. If that market is the EU and the UK is no longer part of it, they will want to be in the EU. If investment dries up then business will dry up eventually and so will the jobs those companies provide, as will the taxes that fund nice things like healthcare and pensions.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    CD13 said:

    Mr Topping,

    How about this for a definition. "Brexiteer: A person of superior intellect who calmly watches extreme Remainers have a hissy fit."

    I quite like that one.

    Can't find it in the OED.

    Oh, it's your definition. Righty-ho.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Scott_P said:
    The tweet / headline is a being a little misleading by missing out the (alleged) first part of the statement, "protects the tax-exempt status of any organization that “believes, speaks, or acts (or declines to act) in accordance with the belief that..."

    In other words Team Trump are trying to find a way to play to the Christian Conservative lot that say its not fair we were forced to do a x or y for a gay couple and thats against our religious beliefs.

    I can't see how it stands up to legal challenge....provided the leak is true.

    Who cares about legal challenge?
    Do it... Even if you lose you're a hero to the Christian right... And the added bonus of being able to rail at judges beig biased against your agenda.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited February 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/

    If there's a dystopia in our future it's far more likely to be "Brave New World", not "1984". It's a much better model and Sean would love it.

    *oops should have read the link first, sorry Plato!*
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2017
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/

    If there's a dystopia in our future it's far more likely to be "Brave New World", not "1984". It's a much better model and Sean would love it.
    BBC ran a piece a few days ago saying 1984, Brave New World and I can't remember the name of, but a much less well known book of a similar nature, have all been selling extremely well.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/

    If there's a dystopia in our future it's far more likely to be "Brave New World", not "1984". It's a much better model and Sean would love it.
    BBC ran a piece a few days ago saying 1984, Brave New World and I can't remember the name of, but a much less well known book of a similar nature, have all been selling extremely well.
    In 1984, books are banned. In the Brave New World, nobody wants to read a book. That's far more chilling.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,791
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Brexit White paper suggests Govt will seek single market deals for car manufacturers, financial services and chemicals

    I'm not sure that 3 out of 30+ sectors amounting to only 32% of export trade qualifies as "substantial sectoral coverage" according to WTO Article V rules - might have to be quite a bit wider in scope.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisshipitv: Remember those promises to stop paying into EU? White Paper:after leaving "it is reasonable that we should make an appropriate contribution"
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Remember, it's only pre-marital sex if you actually end up getting married one day.
    Getting twitchy Robert? BoE says 2% now.
    On the contrary, given their forecasting skills...
    Damn. Didn't think of that.
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    Mr. Urquhart, could be Iron Heel, by Jack London, or We, by Yevgeny Zamyatin.

    Brave New World is quite interesting. Lots of consumer freedom, but no political freedom.

    The best dystopian book I've read is Animal Farm. The others (only read 1984 and Brave New World, mind) are interesting and worthy but a slog to read. Animal Farm is a good book in itself and perfectly conveys the message it wants to.
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    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Just fyi, everyone, while you're wibbling on about stuff that doesn't really matter

    https://www.theatlas.com/charts/r1cg1VCPg

    In other words, you pay €0.95 for a bond that pays out at €1.00 in July.

    The 10 year bond has barely shifted: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
    Assuming it isn't restructured...

    (And the 10 year bond will probably shift nearer the time)
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Didn't Huxley teach Orwell French?

    Both books have been popular for A level English courses in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/sep/18/james-dacre-brave-new-world-theatre-dramatisation-aldous-huxley-nightmare-future
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    People are allowed to hold unpleasant views. He'd been invited to talk there. I'm a free speech zealot, so I'm afraid my sympathies are with Milo. In terms of the meta- of course, he's got everything he ever wanted - millions of dollars worth of free publicity.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Didn't Huxley teach Orwell French?

    Both books have been popular for A level English courses in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/sep/18/james-dacre-brave-new-world-theatre-dramatisation-aldous-huxley-nightmare-future

    I always love the little comment someone once made that

    "everybody knows where they were the day Aldous Huxley died but few know they know it".

    I am sure someone on here can explain why. :-)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ouch

    Court News
    Corrupt HBOS 'Bonk Robber' Lynden Scourfield jailed for 11 years and three months after £245million loan scam.

    His crooked partner David Mills was jailed for 15 years after bribing the 'Danny Devito lookalike' with porn stars and prostitutes.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Didn't Huxley teach Orwell French?

    Both books have been popular for A level English courses in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/sep/18/james-dacre-brave-new-world-theatre-dramatisation-aldous-huxley-nightmare-future

    I always love the little comment someone once made that

    "everybody knows where they were the day Aldous Huxley died but few know they know it".

    I am sure someone on here can explain why. :-)
    JFK (& C S Lewis I think).
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    dr_spyn said:

    Didn't Huxley teach Orwell French?

    Both books have been popular for A level English courses in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2015/sep/18/james-dacre-brave-new-world-theatre-dramatisation-aldous-huxley-nightmare-future

    I always love the little comment someone once made that

    "everybody knows where they were the day Aldous Huxley died but few know they know it".

    I am sure someone on here can explain why. :-)
    Didn't know you were a Country fan
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    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    https://twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    No one has to give him a platform, but people should be free to give him a platform if they wish, without being forcibly prevented from doing so.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Seth Mandel
    Wait. Hang on. You're telling me the first press report on a Trump-related rumor was false? Un-possible. https://t.co/gfjGOFysB1

    Seriously, the MSM desire to hate everything now is unhinged.
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    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2017

    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994


    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/

    If there's a dystopia in our future it's far more likely to be "Brave New World", not "1984". It's a much better model and Sean would love it.

    *oops should have read the link first, sorry Plato!*
    Agreed. The society in Brave New World is shallow and infantile, whereas that of 1984 is a totalitarian militarised dictatorship.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    I think we'll get a pretty decent deal from the EU. It'll be more expensive and take a bit more time to do business in Europe, but broadly things will remain the same. From the White Paper it even looks like there will be a fudge around immigration. The much bigger issue is our trading relationships elsewhere in the world. I am much less sanguine about those.

    The issue is always about investment. People don't realise that investment decisions are often competitive and marginal. Just because you can feasibly do business from the UK it doesn't mean you will choose the UK as your business location. If it is more expensive for everyone to do business from the UK than elsewhere, everyone will go elsewhere. In any case businesses usually like to be based in the markets they are selling to. If that market is the EU and the UK is no longer part of it, they will want to be in the EU. If investment dries up then business will dry up eventually and so will the jobs those companies provide, as will the taxes that fund nice things like healthcare and pensions.

    Yep - that is a very fair point. A lot of businesses will take steps to ensure they remain inside the single market and that will mean investments that would otherwise have been in made in the UK, jobs that might have been created and taxes that might have been paid, will all happen in an EU member state instead. What I meant was that I don't foresee tariffs and I don't envisage any significant curtailment on freedom of movement.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    Yes, but by being in the EU it decided to exercise some of the sovereignty in accordance with EU rules/regulations, some of which we did not agree to. At all times we were completely free to enact EU law or leave.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333

    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
    So that just leaves immigration, then.
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    Lightly browned or burned, because I read one gives you cancer...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ouch

    Court News
    Corrupt HBOS 'Bonk Robber' Lynden Scourfield jailed for 11 years and three months after £245million loan scam.

    His crooked partner David Mills was jailed for 15 years after bribing the 'Danny Devito lookalike' with porn stars and prostitutes.

    I was listening to this on the radio, and it was a real horror story. They looted one company after another and wrecked peoples' lives. Frankly, they should consider themselves lucky to live in a society where they're not hanged for what they did.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994

    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.
    The EU is/was us. It's not a foreign body to which we give something up, but a shared resource to which we collectively delegate that which is common.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    edited February 2017
    TOPPING said:

    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
    So that just leaves immigration, then.
    I think the difference here is between having it and exercising it according to your own wishes.
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    Miss Plato, my mother (unprompted) said to me the other day that she thought the media was, in essence, full of bias and shit (she used more polite language, of course). I was quite surprised.

    Mr. F, I agree entirely.
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    John_M said:

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    People are allowed to hold unpleasant views. He'd been invited to talk there. I'm a free speech zealot, so I'm afraid my sympathies are with Milo. In terms of the meta- of course, he's got everything he ever wanted - millions of dollars worth of free publicity.
    I wasn't disputing his right to hold his unpleasant views. I was noting that his views have an impact on those who deems to be a target. I agree that they've given him loads of publicity - something which an attention seeker like Milo will love.

    @Sean_F I'm going to be controversial here and say that as long as it is not violent, students do have a right to disagree with the decision to invite Milo to speak, and to voice that opinion.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    FPT @Plato, I see that Shiner has been ordered to pay £250,000 on account of costs, within 21 days.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,333
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
    So that just leaves immigration, then.
    I think the difference here is between having it and exercising it according to your own wishes.
    Huh? Surely like being pregnant..
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    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?

    Yes, that was a point quite a few of us made quite a few times on here during the referendum campaign when we were repeatedly told that Parliament was not sovereign.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    John_M said:

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    People are allowed to hold unpleasant views. He'd been invited to talk there. I'm a free speech zealot, so I'm afraid my sympathies are with Milo. In terms of the meta- of course, he's got everything he ever wanted - millions of dollars worth of free publicity.
    I wasn't disputing his right to hold his unpleasant views. I was noting that his views have an impact on those who deems to be a target. I agree that they've given him loads of publicity - something which an attention seeker like Milo will love.

    @Sean_F I'm going to be controversial here and say that as long as it is not violent, students do have a right to disagree with the decision to invite Milo to speak, and to voice that opinion.
    The problem is it did turn violent, which was why the meeting didn't go ahead.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Just fyi, everyone, while you're wibbling on about stuff that doesn't really matter

    https://www.theatlas.com/charts/r1cg1VCPg

    In other words, you pay €0.95 for a bond that pays out at €1.00 in July.

    The 10 year bond has barely shifted: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
    Assuming it isn't restructured...

    (And the 10 year bond will probably shift nearer the time)
    The 10 year is also trading near its 12 month highs
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637

    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
    We are only leaving because on this issue the people decided to keep the sovereignty for themselves, rather than resting it in parliament. They kept it to themselves by electing a Conservative government that had that as a manifesto pledge.

    It will be interesting to see what the next issue is that results in a disconnect between the people and the political class to the extent that a want-to-be party of government stands on a similar manifesto pledge.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2017
    RobD said:
    Apparently one of the lesser reported parts of this story is that Berkeley have deemed themselves a "sanctuary campus" where anybody who is in the us illegally is welcome to shelter from the authorities.
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    TOPPING said:

    If it wasn't sovereign, how could we leave the EU?
    So that just leaves immigration, then.

    Have you seen the White Paper paragraphs on EU immigration? They might as well just say Fudge.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Old Holborn
    Rotherham child sex gang jailed for more than 80 years https://t.co/OUVpAwCRzN
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    edited February 2017

    RobD said:
    Apparently one of the lesser reported parts of this story is that Berkeley have deemed themselves a sanctuary campus where anybody who is in the us illegally is welcome to shelter.
    That would not surprise me one bit.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Remember, it's only pre-marital sex if you actually end up getting married one day.
    Rather cunningly... No mention made of extra-marital sex.
    So he's covered himself fairly well then.
    It's fake news - the tweet has seized on a bit of hearsay and twisted it (and added a picture of DJT signing an EO to make it look real.)

    "A leaked document that purports to be a new executive order claims to "respect religious freedom" and appears to reflect conservative Christian and Catholic beliefs."

    There have already been "executive orders" that weren't http://www.snopes.com/trump-order-climate-change/

    See https://www.thenation.com/article/leaked-draft-of-trumps-religious-freedom-order-reveals-sweeping-plans-to-legalize-discrimination/
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    Sean_F said:

    John_M said:

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    People are allowed to hold unpleasant views. He'd been invited to talk there. I'm a free speech zealot, so I'm afraid my sympathies are with Milo. In terms of the meta- of course, he's got everything he ever wanted - millions of dollars worth of free publicity.
    I wasn't disputing his right to hold his unpleasant views. I was noting that his views have an impact on those who deems to be a target. I agree that they've given him loads of publicity - something which an attention seeker like Milo will love.

    @Sean_F I'm going to be controversial here and say that as long as it is not violent, students do have a right to disagree with the decision to invite Milo to speak, and to voice that opinion.
    The problem is it did turn violent, which was why the meeting didn't go ahead.
    Yep, I agree with you on that one. I did criticise the protestors in a previous post. Violence is not the answer.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637

    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994

    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.
    The EU is/was us. It's not a foreign body to which we give something up, but a shared resource to which we collectively delegate that which is common.
    I see it more as a Frankenstein monster, that has now taken control from its creators.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017
    Call me old-fashioned, but it seems to me that a newspaper which has pretensions to quality shouldn't illustrate a story about a botched US special forces raid in Yemen with a big photo of the aftermath of a bombing attack in a completely different place and which very probably had nothing to do with the US:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/02/trump-approved-yemen-raid-five-days-after-inauguration
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    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994

    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.
    The EU is/was us. It's not a foreign body to which we give something up, but a shared resource to which we collectively delegate that which is common.
    Unfortunately you clearly do not understand the meaning of the word Sovereignty.

    "Supreme and independent power or authority in government".

    Shared sovereignty is an oxymoron.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    Call me old-fashioned, but it seems to me that a newspaper which has pretensions to quality shouldn't illustrate a story about a botched US special forces raid in Yemen with a big photo of the aftermath of a bombing attack in a completely different place and which very probably had nothing to do with the US:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/02/trump-approved-yemen-raid-five-days-after-inauguration

    They probably had to fire their photo editor given their financial woes.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited February 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    Old Holborn
    Rotherham child sex gang jailed for more than 80 years https://t.co/OUVpAwCRzN

    They should throw away the key plus forced surgical castration, without an anaesthetic
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    RobD said:

    Call me old-fashioned, but it seems to me that a newspaper which has pretensions to quality shouldn't illustrate a story about a botched US special forces raid in Yemen with a big photo of the aftermath of a bombing attack in a completely different place and which very probably had nothing to do with the US:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/02/trump-approved-yemen-raid-five-days-after-inauguration

    They probably had to fire their photo editor given their financial woes.
    Probably an unpaid intern ;-)
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sean_F said:

    John_M said:

    I remember when this happened re Milo: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_578f1644e4b046a0b6141139/amp

    Leslie, as far as I'm aware is not a 'evil leftie', but just an actress and comedian. Milo is not merely just a wind up merchant, he's a man with some seriously unpleasant views. Freedom of speech doesn't mean that institutions have to give him a platform to speak. Although obviously the rioting was utterly idiotic.

    People are allowed to hold unpleasant views. He'd been invited to talk there. I'm a free speech zealot, so I'm afraid my sympathies are with Milo. In terms of the meta- of course, he's got everything he ever wanted - millions of dollars worth of free publicity.
    I wasn't disputing his right to hold his unpleasant views. I was noting that his views have an impact on those who deems to be a target. I agree that they've given him loads of publicity - something which an attention seeker like Milo will love.

    @Sean_F I'm going to be controversial here and say that as long as it is not violent, students do have a right to disagree with the decision to invite Milo to speak, and to voice that opinion.
    The problem is it did turn violent, which was why the meeting didn't go ahead.
    Yep, I agree with you on that one. I did criticise the protestors in a previous post. Violence is not the answer.
    "The people who say that violence never solves anything haven't used enough of it." :).

    It's OK ma'am, it's not a court of law. I tacitly assume that people on here have views well within social norms. I do agree that the students had a right to object.
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    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994

    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.
    The EU is/was us. It's not a foreign body to which we give something up, but a shared resource to which we collectively delegate that which is common.
    I see it more as a Frankenstein monster, that has now taken control from its creators.
    Actually, I think Williamglenn is still kind of right, up to a point. But (to some of us, at least) it looked like there would be a point in the future where that wasn't true: where EU integration had created a genuine supranational authority that did sit above the national parliaments. Most Leavers wouldn't have picked this point in time to make the last stand, but the fight came when it did. We had to Leave while we still could, there might well never have been another occasion.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,329
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I saw a claim that Amazon had run out of copies.

    "George Orwell’s dystopian classic “1984” is back in vogue and selling like hotcakes. I should be happy about this, because I think it’s one of the books (in addition, of course, to the founding documents and a solid history of one’s own nation) that every citizen of a democracy should read.

    Instead, I’m dismayed to find that “1984” is back mostly because Americans in the Age of Trump believe it is the roadmap to the destruction of their own country. This is not only inane, it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of one of the greatest books ever written in the English language.

    http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/02/fear-brave-new-world-1984/

    If there's a dystopia in our future it's far more likely to be "Brave New World", not "1984". It's a much better model and Sean would love it.
    BBC ran a piece a few days ago saying 1984, Brave New World and I can't remember the name of, but a much less well known book of a similar nature, have all been selling extremely well.
    In 1984, books are banned. In the Brave New World, nobody wants to read a book. That's far more chilling.
    Love it. And totally agree.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    edited February 2017
    One important aspect of sovereignty is the ability to legislate. There are some fields where Parliament has lost the right to legislate, due to EU membership, or alternatively, must implement legislation decided at EU level, even if a majority of MPs are opposed. So, Parliamentary sovereignty was plainly circumscribed by EU membership.

    However, Parliament can recover legislative rights by voting to leave the EU.

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    Good to see the Southern rail dispute has been resolved by negotiation hosted by the TUC.

    Congratulations to the TUC, the Union and the Employers.

    This is the model for dispute resolution and should be a requirement by both sides of a dispute that independent arbitration will be binding when a dispute enters deadlock
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ouch

    Court News
    Corrupt HBOS 'Bonk Robber' Lynden Scourfield jailed for 11 years and three months after £245million loan scam.

    His crooked partner David Mills was jailed for 15 years after bribing the 'Danny Devito lookalike' with porn stars and prostitutes.

    I was listening to this on the radio, and it was a real horror story. They looted one company after another and wrecked peoples' lives. Frankly, they should consider themselves lucky to live in a society where they're not hanged for what they did.
    Thing is, banks can and do wreck peoples' lives in a similar way through simple negligence and without any criminality first.
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    It doesn't put it to bed as it is patently false. As long as we remained within the EU Parliament does not exercise Supreme and Independent power. It had no power to stop or amend legislation. The fact that by leaving we take back that power does not mean that whilst we were a member we were sovereign any more than I am sovereign because I have the right to leave the country and no longer abide by its rules. As long as I remain in a country that exercises control over me I am not sovereign.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Animal_pb said:

    Well, this puts one argument to bed ...
    twitter.com/Law_and_policy/status/827150102288596994

    The UK was always technically sovereign, as the Brexit vote demonstrated.

    The issue was whether the people were happy to (in practice) give up more and more control to the EU. "Practical Sovereignty", if you like.
    The EU is/was us. It's not a foreign body to which we give something up, but a shared resource to which we collectively delegate that which is common.
    I see it more as a Frankenstein monster, that has now taken control from its creators.
    Actually, I think Williamglenn is still kind of right, up to a point. But (to some of us, at least) it looked like there would be a point in the future where that wasn't true: where EU integration had created a genuine supranational authority that did sit above the national parliaments. Most Leavers wouldn't have picked this point in time to make the last stand, but the fight came when it did. We had to Leave while we still could, there might well never have been another occasion.
    I agree and the referendum actually made the question more important. If we'd voted to remain, I'm sure that the EU would have increased the pressure on us to join in with consolidating powers to Brussels. It really was the last chance saloon!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    The use of "security" fee demands needs to be addressed to - it's just financial censorship.

    5 mins in

    https://youtu.be/TcmE-9hqxCc
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    Sean_F said:

    One important aspect of sovereignty is the ability to legislate. There are some fields where Parliament has lost the right to legislate, due to EU membership, or alternatively, must implement legislation decided at EU level, even if a majority of MPs are opposed. So, Parliamentary sovereignty was plainly circumscribed by EU membership.

    However, Parliament can recover legislative rights by voting to leave the EU.

    The counterargument is that that they always had the right not to legislate, be in violation of EU law, and then be summarily booted from the club.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    A big change, but such a result would still produce a right wing majority in the Bundestag.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    PlatoSaid said:

    The use of "security" fee demands needs to be addressed to - it's just financial censorship.

    5 mins in

    youtu.be/TcmE-9hqxCc

    I think it's the same for all events

    Like all sponsors of similar events, BCR will be required to reimburse the University for the cost of basic event security. Law enforcement professionals in the UCPD have also explained to the BCR that, consistent with legal requirements, security charges were calculated based on neutral, objective criteria having nothing to do with the speaker’s perspectives, prior conduct on other campuses and/or expected protests by those who stand in opposition to his beliefs, rhetoric, and behavior.

    http://news.berkeley.edu/2017/01/26/chancellor-statement-on-yiannopoulos/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NewsInBrie: Labour Party goes home with migraine.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    Bloody hell, Germany:
    twitter.com/yannikouts/status/827168911707643905

    +8? Has Schultz taken over, and this is a honeymoon bounce?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    RobD said:

    Bloody hell, Germany:
    twitter.com/yannikouts/status/827168911707643905

    +8? Has Schultz taken over, and this is a honeymoon bounce?
    Yes. Interesting that the bounce is as much at the expense of the AfD.
This discussion has been closed.