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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lucian Fletcher on the latest Northern Ireland assembly poll

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  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    edited February 2017
    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    And, having an affair with Paul Burrell.
    Charles did that?
    Probably not, but the story did provoke one of the funniest Private Eye covers I've ever seen.

    Charles bending over some plants saying "You chaps don't think I'm gay do you?" And all the plants reply "No Sir, No Sir."
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Scott_P said:
    He's used to issuing orders and being obeyed. He's used to 'Yes' men.
    Classic US CEO behaviour, particularly with no counterweight Chairman.
  • Options
    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:


    On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.

    Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.

    If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:


    On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.

    Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.

    PEOPLE BEFORE PROFITTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Dura_Ace said:

    Trump could finish Turnbull if reneges on the refugee deal. Turnbull is already dealing with a good old fashioned donations scandal and dire polls. If he gets tipped out, it won't be for Abbott but probably ScoMo and then an early election which the ALP will win. An ALP government will be absoutely antithetical to whatever Trumps wants as a matter of principle. He can kiss goodbye to the proposed US base in the Northern Territories for a start.

    If Turnbull gets ousted for Abbott or another rightwinger why would there be another election? The Parliament still has almost 3 years to run and the Coalition has a majority, albeit a small one
  • Options

    Sean_F said:


    On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.

    Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.

    If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.
    But based on what I've heard so far, it's likely you're right (as it stands).

    One major caveat is that the News Letter seems to be finding more every day on RHI. I know that some elected members in the DUP are seriously unhappy about the amount of justifiable flak that they are taking. If one of them jumps ship unexpectedly, the dam might break.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    isam said:

    UKIP/Labour cross over on Betfair again.
    This has got to be the best by election betting heat in years hasn't it? Practically 50/50 at all times
    Yes. Is this the most favourite switches ever?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:
    Tower hamlets is a flagship Labour council.

    *shudders* I hate to think what is seen as bad practice.
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    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:


    On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.

    Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.

    PEOPLE BEFORE PROFITTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!

    People before (wood)pellets
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    I'm not a republican per se, but if it came to that, we shouldn't pass up the opportunity to create a federal UK (assuming Scotland hasn't left by then). I'd solve the 'England's too big' problem by reverting to a version of the historic kingdoms of England.
    I'm a monarchist who's exceedingly pissed off at how Charles is going to give monarchy a very bad name and ruin it, and is too stupid to realise it.

    He's acquired a number of certainties in his life about how the world works, absolutely believes he's right and - to put it mildly - doesn't exactly relish challenge upon them.

    He brings out the Roundhead in me.
    Me too. I'm only a monarchist as long as the system works, and the HoS STFU and isn't a politician.
    Charles thinks he matters because of who he is, and doesn't realise people listen to him only because of what he is.
    That is the whole basis of Monarchy though. Wonder how many Monarchists there really are, as opposed to those who admire HM QE2?
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    Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2017

    Sean_F said:


    On topic, I expect that in reality, the DUP vote share will hardly be affected.

    Overall, I'd expect a result like DUP 31, UUP 14, TUV 1, Alliance 8, Sinn Fein 22, SDLP 12, PBP 1, Green 1.

    If the SDLP hold 12, I'll buy you a pint. Would be a fantastic result for them.
    It's pretty depressing stuff. It appears that the DUP and SF can be as corrupt/flexible with funds* as they want and their vote share barely moves. Never mind rotten boroughs, this is rotten politics populated by people who constantly want London/Dublin to step in and solve the things they should solve themselves. A childlike pocket province with tantruming, ultra-parochial politicians.


    *delete to choice
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030

    If UKIP can win a by-election after May's hard-Brexit and embrace of Trump it would be a terrible result for her.

    No it wouldn't, especially if the Tories win Copeland on the same night. Stoke would never vote Tory in a million years only UKIP can challenge from the right there though unless the membership of Labour has a sharp shift in opinion I think Corbyn would still survive
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
    The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.
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    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
    The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.
    In other words, respect is earned rather than his by right.

    HMQ understands this and I can't think of a Briton (any Briton) I respect more.
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    Mr. Dean, entirely possible to be pro-democracy and think a democratically elected leader is an oaf. Likewise monarchy.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    If UKIP can win a by-election after May's hard-Brexit and embrace of Trump it would be a terrible result for her.

    No. it means you're massively out of touch with Britain. People really dislike the EU and are, in many areas, far more socially than the Tories, let alone the parties of the left.
    far more socially?

    you must mean socially conservative.
    I did - thanks!
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

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    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
    The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.
    The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.

    He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?
  • Options

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.

    I agree.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good afternoon Trumpsters.

    William is a European. I am an Elizabethan. She is the bedrock of my memory, going all the way back to her flying visit through Hopwas when I was five. I admire and respect her very, very much. Charles? Nah. He makes me come over all Mme Defarge.
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    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933
    edited February 2017
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    Good afternoon, Mr. M.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    Brom said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.

    From a psychological point of view I can imagine in a place like Stoke where people vote Labour no matter what for generation after generation it might be an effective tactic to tell people that the masses are voting UKIP this time instead in order to break the cycle and hope some kind of groupthink will push people towards the purples.

    Unlike in a lot of constituencies I don't think having UKIP ahead will motivate Labour voters to come out in droves to keep out Nuttall. The Labour vote is diminishing, old school and clearly quite soft in Stoke & very different to the 'stop the right at all costs' sort of Labour voter we see in London and Brighton.
    Astute post of the day.

    Bang on. This is about UKIP breaking social norms.

    Labour do not know what is going to hit them with the out of touch, apparently unpatriotic hard left in charge.
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    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    Well I don't wish to be unduly harsh on the party that gave us David Coburn, they do have their positives.
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    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    They may not agree with what is happening but they accept it. That is the key difference.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Mr. Dean, entirely possible to be pro-democracy and think a democratically elected leader is an oaf. Likewise monarchy.

    Indeed. Frankly anyone as next Monarch is going to be a step down.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
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    FF43 said:

    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?

    Source?
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310
    edited February 2017

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
    The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.
    The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.

    He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.
    Is it actually him who demands all this though, or some fawning minion trying to make a name for himself?
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    Mr. Royale, Anne would likely be an excellent monarch.

    She works very hard, and has supreme stamina and stoicism.

    I saw her do 4 hours of presentations to graduates at the University of London (standing) and giving a personal word and smile to each and every one, including my wife.

    I was exhausted just watching it - waiting 90 minutes for my wife to go on stage - and I was comfortably seated.

    She had three other appointments that afternoon and evening.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946


    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    FF43 said:

    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?

    Source?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/steve-bannon-donald-trump-war-south-china-sea-no-doubt
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852


    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    She will be comforted to know she can rely on Labour Leave :)
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    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/827117737080213505/photo/1

    If he's going to follow Queen Victoria's lead, then we're going to get a new Bedchamber crisis.

    Hurrah for constitutional crises
    He really does boil my piss.

    You can count the number of months till all the remaining Commonwealth Realms bugger off on the fingers of one hand.
    We've been pretty lucky from Victoria onwards (one obvious exception). Dim and with strong opinions is rarely a happy combination.
    I wouldn't be opposed to an elective monarchy, in principle.

    I'd pick Anne, then William.

    I think having a very long life as an heir in the background is as bad for your personal welfare and character in public life as it is in private life.
    The problem is that Charlie Boy just comes over as a figure of fun. I don't know if the stories about him flying into a rage if his cucumber sandwiches aren't cut right, or having to have his toothpaste squeezed out for him, or having a servant hold a specimen bottle for him to pee into are true or not, but everyone thinks they're in character.
    The story about the sandwiches are true, I know a hotel where he stayed at, and the list of his complaints/requirements are legendary.

    He even told them which brand of bog roll to have in the toilets for his visit, and which way the paper should be facing.
    Is it actually him who demands all this though, or some fawning minion trying to make a name for himself?
    Well he did complain fiercely about something trivial, so I think it is definitely him.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited February 2017


    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    Osbourne, Soubry and Morgan are sat on the backbench space once occupied by the large arse of the Great Sulk himself,Ted Heath. And a fat lot of good it did him. Maybe they will learn.

    (BTW nice typo - Sourby.....)
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited February 2017

    I've warned repeatedly that Charles is a dipstick who just doesn't get it. Republicanism will have a huge boost when he takes the throne:

    I'm not a republican per se, but if it came to that, we shouldn't pass up the opportunity to create a federal UK (assuming Scotland hasn't left by then). I'd solve the 'England's too big' problem by reverting to a version of the historic kingdoms of England.
    I'm a monarchist who's exceedingly pissed off at how Charles is going to give monarchy a very bad name and ruin it, and is too stupid to realise it.

    He's acquired a number of certainties in his life about how the world works, absolutely believes he's right and - to put it mildly - doesn't exactly relish challenge upon them.

    He brings out the Roundhead in me.
    Me too. I'm only a monarchist as long as the system works, and the HoS STFU and isn't a politician.
    Charles (or King George VII as he reportedly wishes to be called on ascending the throne - good luck with that one) appears to have an incredibly high opinion of himself, which unfortunately is not shared by the general public, many of whom view him as rather odd and out of touch. I wonder if he continues to require his toothpaste to be squeezed out of its tube by one of his manservants.
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    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    FF43 said:

    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?

    @Philip_Thompson: Source?

    Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws

    I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!
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    Mr. Mortimer, quite agree on Morgan.

    Mr. Dean, indeed. The longer HM reigns, the better.
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    Scott_P said:
    What will she do at Third Reading then?
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    Mr. Putney, to be fair, many monarchs have taken a new, regnal name. And I can see why someone wouldn't want to be King Charles, given the current 50% decapitation rate.
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    Mr. Thompson, tequila slammers?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,172
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    Pinning all their hopes on the Tories as the champions of their hopes and 'ambitions'? Excellent at that.
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    Mortimer said:


    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.
    Morgan labours under the delusion that she's not only May's equal, but better.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    Scott_P said:
    LOL! First words: "We do not approach these negotiations expecting failure..."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_P said:
    What will she do at Third Reading then?
    She and Corbyn will have a pre-arranged trip to see collective farms on the outskirts of Dresden. On a motorbike.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?

    @Philip_Thompson: Source?

    Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws

    I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!
    And in case anyone thinks being at war with China is far-fetched, this is essentially the same rhetoric as at the start of the Bush administration about war with Iraq (and before 9/11).
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    Pinning all their hopes on the Tories as the champions of their hopes and 'ambitions'? Excellent at that.
    Set up to get the UK out of the EU

    Get Referendum

    Win Referendum

    Job done

    Watch and learn!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748

    Scott_P said:
    LOL! First words: "We do not approach these negotiations expecting failure..."
    I suppose I need to read it. In my experience any prospectus that sets out first and foremost what it is not going to do, is exactly what it ends up doing.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    You find yourself a ton underwater in Stoke.

    Aaron Banks opens a door showing a good poll for UKIP...
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    Mr. 43, worth noting Iraq and China are, shall we say, militarily divergent.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The Trump administration expects to declare war on China apparently. Are we sending our troops as part of Anglosphere?

    @Philip_Thompson: Source?

    Major news item. Google it: www.google.co.uk/webhp?q=steve+bannon+china&tbm=nws

    I suspect even Republicans will say, wait a minute, and dispense with Trump before that happens. But I wouldn't rely on it!
    And in case anyone thinks being at war with China is far-fetched, this is essentially the same rhetoric as at the start of the Bush administration about war with Iraq (and before 9/11).
    Its also pretty much the same situation as under Obama, the likely key factor isn't how big Trump's mouth is, but how many islands that other countries think belong to them China takes over and turns into missile bases or airfields.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?

    Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?

    Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?

    Does anyone in Labour have a clue?
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Scott_P said:

    witter.com/faisalislam/status/827137701656670213

    On trade. On all other matters, no say what so ever.
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    Animal_pb said:
    Take what you want and have someone else pay for it......
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.

    He was out of power in 2015. Being well-up for a post-Brexit trade deal then showed a spooky power of foresight and preparedness!
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?

    Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?

    Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?

    Does anyone in Labour have a clue?

    All the people sacked or resigning yesterday will be back in office by then, so he is clear to declare another three line whip and let them spend another afternoon on the back benches.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030

    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.

    Trudeau is no Republican unlike Turnbull, he got on very well with Wills and Kate
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited February 2017
    Good news about the BoE forecasts, at least the wheels will keep turning this year.

    I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements plus just a smear of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.

    Humph.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Scott_P said:
    This is getting farcical. Next there will reports that Trump will be signing an executive order making pi=3.0
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited February 2017
    Tragic that I am, I have actually just skim-read the Brexit White Paper. It is a bit selective in the way that it presents certain things and is absurdly optimistic on non-EU trade, but as a basis form which to work I was very pleasantly surprised. The government is certainly very keen to avoid a cliff edge, which is very encouraging. It's well worth a read:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/588948/The_United_Kingdoms_exit_from_and_partnership_with_the_EU_Web.pdf
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Mortimer said:


    It's fascinating that by not calling an EU referendum caused problems for the Tories for years.

    And by having one it is now switching problems to Labour.

    I bet Cameron never thought that would happen!

    Hmm. Me thinks it is early days. Osborne, Sourby, Morgan and co are on the backbenches and don't agree with what's happening, to say the least. May has a small majority. There may be trouble ahead once the A50 negotiations start.
    Incidentally, when did Morgan start to be considered serious by the media etc? Biggest laugh this year was when there was word about her running for the leadership.
    Morgan labours under the delusion that she's not only May's equal, but better.
    A sentiment shared by precisely zero people.
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    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    John_M said:

    Good news about the BoE forecasts, at least the wheels will keep turning this year.

    I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements, with just a hint of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.

    Humph.

    When the boss (i.e. the people) gives you duff instructions there's only so much you can do...
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,310
    edited February 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.
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    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.

    Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_P said:
    Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces up and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.
    I'm waiting for the Executive Order on the witch trials. That will be fun.
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    Scott_P said:
    No.

    Courts with one EU judge, one UK judge and one neutral country judge.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,933

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    But they didn't, and we don't, so we'll never know.

    I am sure if Scotland gained independence, the SNP would feel they had succeeded, even if it was achieved with the help of politicians from other parties
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Scott_P said:
    No.

    Courts with one EU judge, one UK judge and one neutral country judge.
    On the whole not likely to have views on things like votes for prisoners either.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_P said:
    No.

    Courts with one EU judge, one UK judge and one neutral country judge.
    So pretty much like every arbitration clause I've ever seen for resolving disputes between international parties....
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.

    Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.
    Yes, but he was royally unpopular.

    Did find a couple of good things in the white paper; the commitment to workers' rights and the environment:

    "...is committed to ensuring we become the first generation to leave the environment in a better state than we found it."

    Given I grew up in an area where the local rivers occasionally caught fire and were utterly lifeless, this is an aspiration I can get behind.
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    Scott_P said:
    Wait and see what he actually signs.

    It is worth remembering that earlier in the week there were reports he was going to roll back on workers rights for LGBT federal employees and in fact he made a point of emphasising his support for Obama's EO which gave them protection. He is many things, almost all of them bad, but I have not seen signs that Trump is homophobic.

    I hope I am not proved wrong on this.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:

    htps://twitter.com/siobhanfenton/status/827133756259573760

    Surely that would be tantamount to ripping the US constitution into pieces up and tossing it up like confetti. Separation of religion and state.
    https://www.thenation.com/article/leaked-draft-of-trumps-religious-freedom-order-reveals-sweeping-plans-to-legalize-discrimination/

    It is apparently a Northern-Ireland-Bakery deal: i.e. not outlawing stuff but making it legit to discriminate against people for doing stuff (I ain't employin'/bakin' cakes for no L/G/B/T/whatever).

    I never thought things would get this mad, this quickly.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Being unashamedly monarchist for a second, one reason I loved Harper is the fact he was bloody sound: he renamed the Canadian naval and air forces back to the Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force.

    He was also well-up for a post Brexit trade deal. But now we have the anglosceptic grandstander in chief: Trudeau.

    Harper was also apparently bloody unpopular.
    Worse, he denuded the Tory Party of any talent who weren't ultra-loyal yes men. So much so that when he resigned in November 2015, there were no viable successors. There will be an election for new leader in May 2017! 18 months without a permanent leader...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
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    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
    So even then UKIP needed the Tories to win referendums/achieve ambitions.
    Bit of a pattern emerging..
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2017
    John_M said:

    I've just galloped through the A50 white paper. I would be ashamed to have produced something like this in my pomp. It's pretty thin gruel. It skates over all the hard stuff (e.g. NI/Eire border), with a bunch of platitudes, aspirational statements plus just a smear of tractor statistics (10k pigs per week!). Not at all what I was expecting.

    Humph.

    There's nothing much to it, but I'm not at all surprised. On every question of importance, it says that 'that will be a matter for negotiation'. That seems to me to be a simple statement of the obvious, which is why all those calls from Labour and others for more clarity don't make sense.

    It's quite a useful summary of some of the basic statistics, however.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Virtue signalling, then?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    I see that Ronnie Campbell turned up to vote after cancer treatment.

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/im-one-lucky-man-veteran-12537758
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
    Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nadhim Zahawi makes it onto The Daily Show...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxhGjDyBT30
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Morally wrong, not legally wrong, if he declared them legally wrong over half of under 30s in the US would be arrested
    Virtue signalling, then?
    Potential virtue signalling, it doesnt exist at the moment, and might not exist at all, so also potential Fake News ;)
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    John_M said:

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
    Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.
    Geldof is a wank but more odious than Farage is a little harsh.
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    But to be serious for a minute, is Corbyn going to change tack on the Third Reading? Is he really going to say to his MPs "well, we had some good amendments, but this Govt. didn't accept any of them, so fvck 'em - vote it down. That's an order...."?

    Or will it be "go with your conscience..."?

    Or is he going to stick with Article 50 being what the public voted for, so it will be the 3 Line Whip again?

    Does anyone in Labour have a clue?

    I think they might abstain.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
    So even then UKIP needed the Tories to win referendums/achieve ambitions.
    Bit of a pattern emerging..
    This Ukip are shite/Farage never won an election shite is up there with Jilted John when it comes to missing the point:

    Oh, she is cruel and heartless
    to pack me for Gordon
    Just cos he's better looking than me
    Just cos he's cool and sexy

    But I know he's a moron, Gordon is a moron
    Gordon is a moron, Gordon is a moron.

    In the same way as Trump is POTUS even if he is an odious joke, so Farage engineered Brexit even if he is an odious joke.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    John_M said:

    isam said:

    I'm more interested in why Leave.EU would release this.

    To build narrative and momentum.

    In 2015 the Tories and UKIP were neck and neck, now they can say only UKIP can beat Labour here.
    Perhaps, but then why not show Labour and UKIP neck and neck? There is a danger in making undecided voters think it's all over. If the EU ref polling had overestimated Leave I suspect the result may have been different.
    If there's one thing I've learned over the years, UKIP are shite at expectations management.
    That's the only thing you've learned UKIP are shite at?
    How are they at winning referendums/achieving their ambitions?
    If Boris and Gove had supported 'Remain' we would have had a different outcome.
    I think that's right. People like me would have felt very uncomfortable having just Farage in our corner. I would probably have abstained.
    Yep. Farage was driving me into the Remain camp every time he opened his gob. Fortunately, there were even more odious people on the other side, Bob Geldof being my personal bete noire.
    Geldof is a wank but more odious than Farage is a little harsh.
    Geldof working hard for the Leave campaign.

    image
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    White Paper: "Our WTO membership will form the bedrock on which we build our future trade relationships."

    Perhaps May would have been better off trying to get a 100% commitment to the WTO from Trump instead of NATO.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "Macron's political movement En Marche recently admitted that they were successfully hacked in October. "It took us at least one full night of work to repair the damage. We won't go into detail, but we take digital security very seriously," an En Marche spokeswoman told France 24 last month."
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