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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum bef

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    DavidL said:

    No but it sounds a lot more exciting than being a lawyer.
    The late Mr Howard Marks found it so!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Not so. It would be possible to have no tariffs with the EU but have arrangements by which tariffs were payable on non EU imports that were being re exported.
    There would have to be customs checks, even if zero rated for tarrifs, but I think that will be the case for manufactured and agricultural goods. There may be quotas though, particularly for the latter.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    FF43 said:

    The alternative to the imperfect Single Market is no common trading system at all. Which is where the EU is at across the board. Do you prefer a glass half-full (or half-empty) or no glass at all?

    False dichotomy. The alternative will be a trade deal with the EU. Whether that is significantly worse than we had in the EU we will have to wait to see. I think it will be less good but the trade off of the other benefits of being out remains favourable.
  • glw said:

    Right. And what really frightens the opposition is not that Trump will be awful, but that he might be good enough that more Trumps are elected. We could see a complete overturning of the way politics has been done since at least the 60s.

    What frightens me - and I am happy to admit it - is that we will indeed start to see where you are born determining where you are allowed to go and what you are allowed to do. It already happens with regards to citizenship, but birth-place is taking it further. I am also happy to admit that it does worry me greatly that we have seen the world's leading power deny entry to people who have made their homes there, paid taxes there and committed no crimes there. That looks like the start of a very slippery slope to me and I am not sure it is what white working class people want. I guess we will find out.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Federer !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    felix said:

    Golly - an almost sensible post. Although despite being an idiot Trump does not fit the dictionary definition of despot.
    If the late Emperor Hirohito could be welcomed ..........
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    Amazing.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    isam said:

    No, I didn't lie, I told the exact truth

    Do what you like
    If I could be bothered I would find your posts and embarrass you. But they have probably been deleted by Mike thanks to their unacceptable content. Just stop bothering me with your weird obsessions and I will happily leave you in peace.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited January 2017
    felix said:

    While I accept the rationale I'd have struggled voting for Clinton. Anyway the issue is moot. Trump won on the backs of a vast number of rust-belt white [ and other lower class] voters who have found a voice. I guess many will be happy with his clumsy order because they feel, rightly or wrongly that the threat is there. All of the outrage in the world now does nothing to excuse the failure of the establishment in American, and maybe European politics too, to show as much interest in the white/lower W/C voters for far too long as it has done for others. The plain fact is that this group of voters has been shamelessly let down for too long and will continue to elect people like Trump until their concerns are addressed.
    Apart from the fact that the lowest income voters voted heavily for Clinton. And those in higher incomes heavily for Trump. Apart from that OK.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    glw said:

    Right. And what really frightens the opposition is not that Trump will be awful, but that he might be good enough that more Trumps are elected. We could see a complete overturning of the way politics has been done since at least the 60s.
    It is very sad because the current twitter storm from all the great and good [I see Kay Burley and Jeremy Vine from our unbiased News outlets joined in last night] simply confirms the exclusion felt by upwards of maybe 30% + of voters already.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    dr_spyn said:

    Think away - you are wrong.
    Like most who accuse others of 'virtue signalling' (which is an idiotic, childish phrase by the way) you are doing so yourself, by signalling other virtues. That's one of the many reasons why the phrase is stupid.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What frightens me - and I am happy to admit it - is that we will indeed start to see where you are born determining where you are allowed to go and what you are allowed to do.

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/825675722593333248
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    There would have to be customs checks, even if zero rated for tarrifs, but I think that will be the case for manufactured and agricultural goods. There may be quotas though, particularly for the latter.
    Customs checks oin EU imports; I am trying to imagine the situation at Felixstowe and/or Dover!
  • dixiedean said:

    Apart from the fact that the lowest income voters voted heavily for Clinton.
    Alternative facts!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    Jobabob said:

    If I could be bothered I would find your posts and embarrass you. But they have probably been deleted by Mike thanks to their unacceptable content. Just stop bothering me with your weird obsessions and I will happily leave you in peace.
    Stop trying to imply (putting it mildly) that I did or said things that I blatantly didn't! Find them and embarrass me if you want

    There are no weird obsessions, if you debate on a public forum you are open to have your points questioned, the weirdness is being too cowardly to debate
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    DavidL said:

    False dichotomy. The alternative will be a trade deal with the EU. Whether that is significantly worse than we had in the EU we will have to wait to see. I think it will be less good but the trade off of the other benefits of being out remains favourable.
    Rather less false a dichotomy than to imply the Single Market is imperfect and therefore has no value. My point.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    John_M said:

    Really? I thought the split for ABC1s was 56:44 - perhaps I'm mis-remembering. Or perhaps you're speaking of academia, in which case, point cheerfully conceded.
    Surbiton won't be happy until we return to the days of voting qualifications which exclude the lumpen masses.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    edited January 2017
    Jobabob said:

    Like most who accuse others of 'virtue signalling' (which is an idiotic, childish phrase by the way) you are doing so yourself, by signalling other virtues. That's one of the many reasons why the phrase is stupid.
    Continued on page 94.
  • This leaves the government well placed to meet, or exceed, the OBR's forecast.

    At this point last year, borrowing in the year to date was £74.5bn; at the end of the year that had risen to £75.4bn, an increase of £0.9bn (as January receipts counterbalances February and March spending). A simple addition of £0.9bn to the £63.8bn so far this year would give a figure of £64.7bn, compared to the latest OBR forecast of £68.2bn. That's a comfortable performance.

    There are reasons to be even more optimistic (vis a vis the forecast at least!). We know that borrowing is down about 7.5% so far this year so we could expect the next three months - net - to be flat, or return a small surplus. I haven't had the opportunity to assess whether that 7.5% is increased receipts or lower spending, though I suspect the latter.

    Equally, revisions between January and March last year - stripping out the effect of bringing housing associations onto the books) lowered the borrowing in the then year to date by £4.4bn. Equally the last few months this time around have seen substantial downwards revisions.

    However it does seem unlikely that the government will hit was the OBR's forecast used to be for this year, which was £55.5 billion. Nevertheless without a full budget in April, there will be effectively another six months before the chancellor has an opportunity to spend everything that he has saved.
    Thanks, that's very useful.

    The 2016/17 borrowing predictions had been steadily rising before Hammond Autumn Statement.

    2015 Mar 39bn
    2015 Jul 43bn
    2015 Nov 50bn
    2016 Mar 55bn
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Glad Federer won. Won't see many, maybe any, Federer-Nadal finals, but they've been extremely good for tennis.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    felix said:

    Surbiton won't be happy until we return to the days of voting qualifications which exclude the lumpen masses.
    One of my new words learned solely due to the extended cri de coeur from my intellectual betters is 'epistocracy'. I wonder if we'll ever see it implemented. Hopefully, not in my lifetime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    felix said:

    Surbiton won't be happy until we return to the days of voting qualifications which exclude the lumpen masses.
    Property owners would still have voted for Brexit and Trump, although of course you cannot now restrict the franchise unless a majority of the electorate vote to do so
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DavidL said:

    Not so. It would be possible to have no tariffs with the EU but have arrangements by which tariffs were payable on non EU imports that were being re exported.
    Provided the imported tariff coming into the UK would not be lower than the same product coming into the EU.

    Of course, that means we get the Single Market for free. Do you think our friends are that gullible ?

    Remember, the talk just before and after June. The EU will role out the red carpet to keep us in the single market. Apparently, BMW will make them do so.

    No one hears about that anymore. We may have overplayed our hands.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Jobabob said:

    Like most who accuse others of 'virtue signalling' (which is an idiotic, childish phrase by the way) you are doing so yourself, by signalling other virtues. That's one of the many reasons why the phrase is stupid.
    Agreed. It is an idiotic phrase. Who, involved in a discussion or even a slanging-match, wants to communicate the idea that their own values and attitudes are utterly without virtue?

    Satan?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    dixiedean said:

    Apart from the fact that the lowest income voters voted heavily for Clinton. And those in higher incomes heavily for Trump. Apart from that OK.
    Ahem - Trump won the votes in the states he needed on the backs of w/c voters. The longer you turn your back on them the more 'Trumps' you will get. His election campaign very cleverly focussed on the votes he needed - the fact that Hilary got her extra votes in places like NY and California doesn't alter that nor increase her EC college vote to anywhere near that achieved by Trump.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    @Jobabob

    As for "Stalking" etc I believe you posted this to me last night, unsolicited

    "What a stagnant world it must be, inside your little head. Do you ever post about anything else"

    Probably not the best thing to say to someone you don't like getting a reaction off
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    John_M said:

    One of my new words learned solely due to the extended cri de coeur from my intellectual betters is 'epistocracy'. I wonder if we'll ever see it implemented. Hopefully, not in my lifetime.
    New to me too. Love it.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Dromedary said:

    Agreed. It is an idiotic phrase. Who, involved in a discussion or even a slanging-match, wants to communicate the idea that their own values and attitudes are utterly without virtue?

    Satan?
    I guess Satan sees extreme vice as a virtue so even he is a virtue signaller of sorts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Felix, likewise. I checked the meaning. Mildly disappointed it didn't mean 'rule by bishops'.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    Property owners would still have voted for Brexit and Trump, although of course you cannot now restrict the franchise unless a majority of the electorate vote to do so
    Indeed - - but then I think he'd support extra votes for the big city dwellers and the 'epistocracy'! :)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    felix said:

    It is very sad because the current twitter storm from all the great and good [I see Kay Burley and Jeremy Vine from our unbiased News outlets joined in last night] simply confirms the exclusion felt by upwards of maybe 30% + of voters already.

    If Trump repellent as he is can win, after essentially hijacking a political party, then some other maverick without the baggage surely has at least a similar chance of doing so. If Trump does even moderately well I think we might see other maverick candidates. It's interesting that we have already seen quite a few calls for non-politicians to enter the race in 2020 as opposition to Trump. Political parties might simply end up as electoral vehicles for big egos.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,338
    edited January 2017
    Jobabob said:


    Like most who accuse others of 'virtue signalling' (which is an idiotic, childish phrase by the way) you are doing so yourself, by signalling other virtues. That's one of the many reasons why the phrase is stupid.

    Or an alternative view..

    https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/825672552815149056

    Personally when I see anyone using 'virtue signalling', 'outrage bus', 'snowflake' etc as if those terms are valid critiques of opposing views, it's a super fast shortcut for popping them in the fuckwit bag.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    There would have to be customs checks, even if zero rated for tarrifs, but I think that will be the case for manufactured and agricultural goods. There may be quotas though, particularly for the latter.
    It would create a lot of jobs!!!!!!!!! The TUC will be happy. Also Border Force.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Mr. Felix, likewise. I checked the meaning. Mildly disappointed it didn't mean 'rule by bishops'.

    Isn't that better known as the wringingwetocracy'?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. glw, demagogues is one reason why carving England into stupid little assemblies would be so foolish.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Mr. Felix, likewise. I checked the meaning. Mildly disappointed it didn't mean 'rule by bishops'.

    I liked it too. Last new word I came across was andragogy. Rarely used, of course.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Felix, perhaps mitrocracy?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    So, yeah, Muslims are deemed less desirable as citizens, in the west. It is in the nature of being Islamic. Which part of this does Helen Lewis, or Southam, not understand?

    The part that says your worth is determined by your place of birth.

    The part that says Mo Farah is not British.

    The part that says you are not Cornish
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,547
    SeanT said:

    This is inevitable. Large numbers of Muslims want to come and live in the west. To enjoy our prosperity and freedom. At the same time these incoming Muslims refuse to give up values hostile to those freedoms. Indeed there is plentiful evidence the Muslims become more hostile to us, the longer they stay, and expect the locals to bend to Muslim values.

    This is the point at which westerners en masse say, no fuck off, if you don't adopt our values, fuck off home, and we don't want any more of you here. As the Dutch prime minister said the other day (in a slightly more polite way, but only slightly)

    So, yeah, Muslims are deemed less desirable as citizens, in the west. It is in the nature of being Islamic. Which part of this does Helen Lewis, or Southam, not understand?
    So what happens when an Iranian Zoroastrian wants to go to US?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Or an alternative view..

    https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/825672552815149056

    Personally when I see anyone using 'virtue signalling', 'outrage bus', 'snowflake' etc as if those terms are valid critiques of opposing views, it's a super fast shortcut for popping them in the fuckwit bag.
    Waycist is another - a 'moron detector' as @TSE memorably put it.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 666
    edited January 2017
    Isam/Jobabob

    This conversation is now at an end.

    In future neither of you are to interact with each other, directly or indirectly.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    dr_spyn said:

    Tristram is still sitting in Stoke Central.
    But Stoke does not have a new MP. Richmond Park does.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited January 2017
    100000 coming up !!! 290 from K&S. 0.23% of total. Above the constituency average.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,547
    surbiton said:

    100000 coming up !!!

    :+1:
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080
    surbiton said:

    100000 coming up !!!

    Wow - this is rapid!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    100,000 now signed up to save HMQ from embarrassment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    surbiton said:

    100000 coming up !!!

    You write that as though it actually means something!

    Sweet...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    *Defeated by endless blockquotes*

    I've no idea if there is any interest, but the full text of CETA & assorted addenda are here:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/10/28-eu-canada-trade-agreement/

    And details of TARIC etc are here:

    https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/calculation-customs-duties_en

    Health warning: possibly, with the exception of TPP, the dullest documents I have ever even attempted to read.

    If you told me that my only permitted role was 'trade negotiator', I think I'd defenestrate myself. I hope they earn a million pounds a year, because they would deserve it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    You write that as though it actually means something!

    Sweet...
    It means that Theresa May has boxed herself into a strategic corner due to her haste to get into the Donald's good books.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    John_M said:

    One of my new words learned solely due to the extended cri de coeur from my intellectual betters is 'epistocracy'. I wonder if we'll ever see it implemented. Hopefully, not in my lifetime.
    Have you ever read Nevil Shute's In the Wet, where he advocated just such a voting system? He heavily criticised one man, one vote because it voted in the Attlee government and he saw them as a bunch of greedy crooks on the make trying to grab as much wealth as they could for their client groups at the expense of long term investment. His description of them as 'tub thumping nonentities' and 'good union men' with an especially thinly (barely) disguised attack on Aneurin Bevan makes for fascinating reading.

    Admittedly, that probably also had a lot to do with his disgust over the Macdonald government and their shocking ineptitude over the R101 (he was Deputy Chief Engineer on the more successful R100, but was put out of a job by R101's crash just the same). But it's an interesting example of how the educated elites with inherited wealth (Shute was the son of a senior civil servant) saw the age of mass suffrage.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    The part that says your worth is determined by your place of birth.

    The part that says Mo Farah is not British.

    The part that says you are not Cornish
    Islamia is not a country, Scott, and there is no religion called Corn. Musselmen are not men from the land of Mussel. Would all this be less difficult for you if I tweeted it?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited January 2017
    Petition opposing Trump's visit to the UK has passed 100,000.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928

    Edit - Whoops, old news.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    felix said:

    Indeed - - but then I think he'd support extra votes for the big city dwellers and the 'epistocracy'! :)
    He would support whatever increases the chances of getting the result he wants
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    The original 'ban Trump' petition topped out at 586,930 signatures.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/114003
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    Scott_P said:
    Trump is no longer candidate Trump, he is President Trump and the most powerful man in the world and the U.S. Head of State, of course May could not ignore him even of she does not always agree with him
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Or an alternative view..

    https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/825672552815149056

    Personally when I see anyone using 'virtue signalling', 'outrage bus', 'snowflake' etc as if those terms are valid critiques of opposing views, it's a super fast shortcut for popping them in the fuckwit bag.
    For jessie boys
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Isam/Jobabob

    This conversation is now at an end.

    In future neither of you are to interact with each other, directly or indirectly.

    Understood - and fine by me. Thanks.
  • Crickey it is spicy on here today, anything much going on in the world?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    It means that Theresa May has boxed herself into a strategic corner due to her haste to get into the Donald's good books.
    You'd have written that regardless.....first you thought Merkel would be in first, "humiliating May", when she wasn't she was "biding her time" - then you were convinced Netanyahu would "humiliate" May by getting there first....once May got there first the story changed somewhat.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Petition opposing Trump's visit to the UK has passed 100,000.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928

    Edit - Whoops, old news.

    Waste of time and effort, hopefully it does not get printed and waste a tree senslessly.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Would all this be less difficult for you if I tweeted it?

    Read the thread. At least SeanT understood it...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Have you ever read Nevil Shute's In the Wet, where he advocated just such a voting system? He heavily criticised one man, one vote because it voted in the Attlee government and he saw them as a bunch of greedy crooks on the make trying to grab as much wealth as they could for their client groups at the expense of long term investment. His description of them as 'tub thumping nonentities' and 'good union men' with an especially thinly (barely) disguised attack on Aneurin Bevan makes for fascinating reading.

    Admittedly, that probably also had a lot to do with his disgust over the Macdonald government and their shocking ineptitude over the R101 (he was Deputy Chief Engineer on the more successful R100, but was put out of a job by R101's crash just the same). But it's an interesting example of how the educated elites with inherited wealth (Shute was the son of a senior civil servant) saw the age of mass suffrage.
    I'm afraid my familiarity with Shute ends with 'On the Beach' and 'A Town like Alice'. I'm groaning under the backlog of things I should like to read, but I shall add this to the ever extending list, thank you. I also appreciate the background on Shute - didn't know his trade before.

    My late father-in-law was very well known in aviation circles, and said much the same thing about the politicians who cancelled the TSR.2 - la plus change etc.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    It means that Theresa May has boxed herself into a strategic corner due to her haste to get into the Donald's good books.
    William you could add stupidity to your haste, it is the Tory way, they fixate on the money and only the money.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    MattW said:
    Has somebody been watching this famous trailer for Men in Black II and taken it slightly too seriously?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O9EEguImLDg
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @surbiton

    It is not my preferred outcome, but is my predicted one.

    The logic is based on us being out of the Customs Union (hence need for border customs) but neither us or the EU would want to impose tarrifs. Manufactured goods have long supply chains, and the complexity of such cross channel tarrifs more trouble than they are worth. Agricultural goods of defined origin ditto, though quotas would be needed in line with CAP, and documentation to exclude secondary imports of chlorine chicken, hormone beef etc.

    In time the hassle of the customs posts will cause trade to wither, but that is to be expected. Trade never increases between countries when customs unions break up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    malcolmg said:

    Waste of time and effort, hopefully it does not get printed and waste a tree senslessly.
    Good heavens! Something else on which we agree! It truly is the end of days!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    So what happens when an Iranian Zoroastrian wants to go to US?
    Be told to jog on
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JeremyCliffe: German chancellor candidate Schulz lays into Trump's "unashamed", "unacceptable" and "dangerous" comments, which he says "cross a line".
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Read the thread. At least SeanT understood it...
    Yes. But you didn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Crickey it is spicy on here today, anything much going on in the world?

    No very little of note.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    I'm torn on this petition

    On the one hand I think prejudicing our relationship with the world's foremost economic power is extremely counterproductive.

    On the other I'm feeling bad for the Queen.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    This is inevitable. Large numbers of Muslims want to come and live in the west. To enjoy our prosperity and freedom. At the same time these incoming Muslims refuse to give up values hostile to those freedoms. Indeed there is plentiful evidence the Muslims become more hostile to us, the longer they stay, and expect the locals to bend to Muslim values.

    This is the point at which westerners en masse say, no fuck off, if you don't adopt our values, fuck off home, and we don't want any more of you here. As the Dutch prime minister said the other day (in a slightly more polite way, but only slightly)

    So, yeah, Muslims are deemed less desirable as citizens, in the west. It is in the nature of being Islamic. Which part of this does Helen Lewis, or Southam, not understand?
    Did the Amish change their way of life when they emigrated to the US ? Did the Hasidic Jews ?
    In any case, the vast majority of Muslims are just like anybody. They go to work , pay their taxes etc.

    There are people you see on the TV everyday like Mishal Husain etc. On the other hand, someone like Jim Al-Khalili, the astro-physicist cannot go to the US because he was born in Baghdad.

    Do these people strike you as odd ? They are, if anything, enhancing our values.
  • @foxinsoxuk

    'Agricultural goods of defined origin ditto, though quotas would be needed in line with CAP, and documentation to exclude secondary imports of chlorine chicken, hormone beef etc.'

    But chlorine water OK ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Good heavens! Something else on which we agree! It truly is the end of days!
    Beginning to get concerned now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,730
    MattW said:
    I'm not sure you understand the importance of the Post Office in American politics...
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119925/?ref_=nv_sr_1

    :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    ydoethur said:

    Have you ever read Nevil Shute's In the Wet, where he advocated just such a voting system? He heavily criticised one man, one vote because it voted in the Attlee government and he saw them as a bunch of greedy crooks on the make trying to grab as much wealth as they could for their client groups at the expense of long term investment. His description of them as 'tub thumping nonentities' and 'good union men' with an especially thinly (barely) disguised attack on Aneurin Bevan makes for fascinating reading.

    Admittedly, that probably also had a lot to do with his disgust over the Macdonald government and their shocking ineptitude over the R101 (he was Deputy Chief Engineer on the more successful R100, but was put out of a job by R101's crash just the same). But it's an interesting example of how the educated elites with inherited wealth (Shute was the son of a senior civil servant) saw the age of mass suffrage.
    The paradox is that in those days, people from his background feared that universal suffrage would produce left wing policies. Now, a lot of them worry that universal suffrage prevents left wing policies.

    I'm pretty sure that a Referendum that had been held on a pre-1918 franchise, mostly excluding young men, non-ratepayers, and all women, would have produced a Leave majority.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    HYUFD said:

    Trump is no longer candidate Trump, he is President Trump and the most powerful man in the world and the U.S. Head of State, of course May could not ignore him even of she does not always agree with him
    No! No! No!

    You don't understand!

    Either you agree 100% with Trump or disagree 100%

    Failure to roundly denounce = 100% agreement.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure you understand the importance of the Post Office in American politics...
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119925/?ref_=nv_sr_1

    :-)
    I think it may be symbolic of secret IRA links.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited January 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm torn on this petition

    On the one hand I think prejudicing our relationship with the world's foremost economic power is extremely counterproductive.

    On the other I'm feeling bad for the Queen.

    Why are you feeling bad for the Queen about meeting Trump? She's married to Phillip for gods sake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    SeanT said:
    I think Lewis will vote against on the third reading and stand down. But he will not challenge, he will be well placed post Corbyn's defeat mind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited January 2017


    Ahem - Trump won the votes in the states he needed on the backs of w/c voters. The longer you turn your back on them the more 'Trumps' you will get. His election campaign very cleverly focussed on the votes he needed - the fact that Hilary got her extra votes in places like NY and California doesn't alter that nor increase her EC college vote to anywhere near that achieved by Trump.

    He won extra votes in places he needed them on the backs of middle class, white, predominantly rural voters. Those on minimum wage/insecure employment voted heavily for Clinton. Hence she held Nevada.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    Sean_F said:

    The paradox is that in those days, people from his background feared that universal suffrage would produce left wing policies. Now, a lot of them worry that universal suffrage prevents left wing policies.

    I'm pretty sure that a Referendum that had been held on a pre-1918 franchise, mostly excluding young men, non-ratepayers, and all women, would have produced a Leave majority.
    This is all rather hypothetical though as you would have to get a majority of the current electorate to vote to restrict the franchise now in the first place
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233

    Why are you feeling bad for the Queen? She's married to Phillip for gods sake.
    Good point, just worried Trump might try to do something inappropriate. Grabbing May's hand looked odd to me, if he was to do that to the Queen though :i
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    John_M said:

    I'm afraid my familiarity with Shute ends with 'On the Beach' and 'A Town like Alice'. I'm groaning under the backlog of things I should like to read, but I shall add this to the ever extending list, thank you. I also appreciate the background on Shute - didn't know his trade before.

    My late father-in-law was very well known in aviation circles, and said much the same thing about the politicians who cancelled the TSR.2 - la plus change etc.
    The rich elites just hate that plebs are allowed to have any say , even when they have rigged systems that favour them in any case. They would love to dispense with the plebs being able to vote at all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,547
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Lewis will vote against on the third reading and stand down. But he will not challenge, he will be well placed post Corbyn's defeat mind.
    Yes, that does indeed look the way it will go for Lewis.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm torn on this petition

    On the one hand I think prejudicing our relationship with the world's foremost economic power is extremely counterproductive.

    On the other I'm feeling bad for the Queen.

    She has suffered far worse than Trump , it will be a breeze for her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    SeanT said:
    Corbyn is trying to win Stoke and Copeland not appease some EUphile diehards within his own party who represent seats far more pro Remain than the average Labour seat
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    surbiton said:

    Did the Amish change their way of life when they emigrated to the US ? Did the Hasidic Jews ?
    In any case, the vast majority of Muslims are just like anybody. They go to work , pay their taxes etc.

    There are people you see on the TV everyday like Mishal Husain etc. On the other hand, someone like Jim Al-Khalili, the astro-physicist cannot go to the US because he was born in Baghdad.

    Do these people strike you as odd ? They are, if anything, enhancing our values.
    He may well be doing them a favour , they may hate it and be far better off staying where they are. One wonders why so many people clamour to get to the west rather than improve their own countries.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited January 2017
    malcolmg said:

    She has suffered far worse than Trump , it will be a breeze for her.
    Philip might pull his hair to see if it was a wig or not. As for the Slovenian ex-model, I am sure The Sun will do its patriotic duty...

    Oh, and this.........

    http://mashable.com/2017/01/28/trump-tweet-queen-kate-middleton/#MMZkkUzrn8qA
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: Hard to see how Trump visit will be anything other than disaster now. Even if PM ignores outrage, thin-skinned President will hate protests.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    No! No! No!

    You don't understand!

    Either you agree 100% with Trump or disagree 100%

    Failure to roundly denounce = 100% agreement.
    If you are driving the gataway car you are still robbing the bank and cannot claim to be innocent.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    johnzims said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    'Agricultural goods of defined origin ditto, though quotas would be needed in line with CAP, and documentation to exclude secondary imports of chlorine chicken, hormone beef etc.'

    But chlorine water OK ?

    yes, no problem with that.

    The reason chlorine wash is used in american poultry slaughterhouses is because of the high rates of fecal contamination in these. The chlorine wash is to reduce the surface contamination in order to meet bacterial guidlines. It is ineffective for deepe contamination, but that is not tested by surface swabs. It is not chlorine per se that is the problem, but rather the underlying reason that it is needed. Slower production lines with better basic hygiene, as currently required in the UK and EU, is strongly preferable, but more expensive. It is why chlorine chicken is cheap.

    Chlorinated water is completely different.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    Pulpstar said:

    Good point, just worried Trump might try to do something inappropriate. Grabbing May's hand looked odd to me, if he was to do that to the Queen though :i
    That is what the Tower is for.
This discussion has been closed.