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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum bef

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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Panelbase/The Sunday Times Scottish polling

    Yes to Independence 46% (-1)

    No to Independence 54% (+1)

    Changes since September 2016

    Looks winnable for Sturgeon - Salmond began the campaign in the 20s/30s as I recall
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,723
    Charles said:

    An interesting fact: President Obama issued fewer executive orders than any two-term US president since the 1890s.

    Do you have a source? I'm sure I'd seem somewhere that it was more than all over Presidents added together!
    I'm sure you have; it's a persistent meme.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,018

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    Only those with the sensitivity of an amoeba can still feel as confident as they did post referendum. From thinking the world was now their oyster they're now seeing the great powers slinking into protectionism and our Prime Minister in hock to a leader more unstable than the late Saddam Hussein and a hell of a lot more dangerous.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    The Polish government is currently out on maneouvres, the DPM's statement is part of that. At the moment it's principally back end, and the jobs are moving from France and Germany as well as the UK - see for example BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse. Having been to Warsaw recently, I'm not surprised. A much more modern city than I was expecting.

    http://www.tol.org/client/article/26653-poland-brexit-banks-relocate-wroclaw.html
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,992
    Federer's two sets to one up, incidentally.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    Dromedary said:

    British prime minister helps legitimise Donald Trump's presidency of the US by rushing to the US, saying Britain and the US are going to lead the world again (sic), and holding his hand for the cameras - in one of the most vomit-inducing shows put on by a British official in recent decades.

    The VERY NEXT DAY, Trump issues an order banning entry to the US by people from a list of countries that he doesn't do business with and by refugees from everywhere. Condemnation ensues. Even those who said sweet fanny-adams when the US and Britain blew Arab children to bits in Iraq started expressing opposition when scientists and film-makers and medics who live in the US and who in some cases have worked for its armed forces start getting detained because they hold passports from the targeted countries.

    Where does that leave Number Ten's propagandists?

    Theresa "NEVILLE CHAMBERLAIN" May should be out on her ear. Editorialists should compare the HAND-HOLD with the famous PIECE OF PAPER.

    US citizen Boris Johnson, Britain's foreign minister (well where the hell is he?) is keeping his trap mostly shut. He should resign too, but maybe the loony thinks he can seize Number 10? It wouldn't surprise me.

    Now guess what? The story is being put out that that handshake - that emetic public act saying "Britain Loves Trump" that May and her advisers were guilty of on Thursday - was in fact NOTHING OF THE KIND. Apparently it only happened because Trump is TERRIFIED of steps and staircases. What an absolute load of crap.

    We all know Trump is mentally ill. "This is big stuff" said the brat with the psycho problems as he signed the banning order. Like Mussolini, he is strongly against shaking hands. But there is no known record of him being phobic about steps. He has in the past avoided handshakes where thumbs-up or open-handed gestures can be done for the cameras instead. But in meetings with leaders of other countries, and sometimes on the stage, handshakes cannot at present be dispensed with. So he grins and bears it, and waits until he's off-camera before he scrubs his hands with alcohol. Loonies sometimes can grin and bear things.

    Steps? Well they aren't considered part of protocol. If he'd wanted to avoid walking down steps with the Tory leader, he could have done.

    The staircase-phobia story is lies.

    Lies to shore up Theresa May's position.





    And back in the real world, people are not talking about Mrs May. They're talking about Trump.

    Unlike the petulant Violet Elizabeth Bott's on here, most people understand a) diplomacy and b) that the media are going crazy over this

    Anecdote alert: Dinner last night with friends of the OH - ex kipper host worships May; general table consensus that they'd vote for her.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    Care to explain?!
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Trump has met Britain's PM and will speak on the phone today to the leaders of Russia, France, Germany, Japan, and Australia.

    Is the mainland Chinese government giving him the cold shoulder?

    There are many things about Trump's presidency to be scared about, but his implication that he may attempt to block Chinese access to the Spratly islands has got to be on the list.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    Is it even possible for a child to be Atheist, Christian or Muslim? As they are children and by definition not of age to make such philosophical choices, they are simply 'children'. Apportioning religion to kids is as daft as apportioning political creeds to them. "No left-libertarian five-year-olds may enter this nation".
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,992
    Mr. Fire, circumcision.

    However, many Americans (though I believe the rate is falling) are circumcised, despite being Christian.
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    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.
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    Back at the end of June many of PB's 'finest' seemed to be predicting a very soft Brexit:

    Yellow Submarine:
    ' The Conservative Party has to choose between shafting Hartlepool over ' Immigration ' or shafting the City of London over the Financial Service Passport. It'll shaft Hartlepool. The referendum didn't address this debate. Leave lied about it to win. The big question in UK politics now is whether the Conservative leadership election now faces upto this choice or kicks the can further down the road. '

    SeanT:
    ' I agree. That's what they will have to do, economically. The pressure they will now be under, from their donors and backers, will be enormous: save the single market, accept Free Movement, fuck Hartlepool. It's a brave Tory PM who says Boo to the City. I can't think of any Tory PM who has ever done it. '

    Or no Brexit at all:

    Scott_P
    ' Watch the markets, and the evening news. The Brexiteers are already mumbling about "staying in" as much as they think their useful idiots will swallow

    In a few weeks people will be begging for "in" '

    ' Ok, here's an idea

    May and Boris fight the leadership on an in/out ticket

    May wins, tells Brussels we are staying. Osborne as chancellor. "Punishment" budget in the Autumn to start clearing up the mess '
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    Is it even possible for a child to be Atheist, Christian or Muslim? As they are children and by definition not of age to make such philosophical choices, they are simply 'children'. Apportioning religion to kids is as daft as apportioning political creeds to them. "No left-libertarian five-year-olds may enter this nation".
    The ONS are happy to assign religions to children in the Census, presumably given to them by their parents.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    No, you merely have a good chance of determining the religion of his parents.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,018
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    How do you manage in Ireland? AFAIR they use two languages? Or Austria?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,723
    Dromedary said:

    Trump has met Britain's PM and will speak on the phone today to the leaders of Russia, France, Germany, Japan, and Australia.

    Is the mainland Chinese government giving him the cold shoulder?

    There are many things about Trump's presidency to be scared about, but his implication that he may attempt to block Chinese access to the Spratly islands has got to be on the list.

    The Chinese have his number, apparently:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/china-new-year-rooster-soldiers/514703/
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,018
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    No, you merely have a good chance of determining the religion of his parents.
    Very few young children are of a different religion to their parents. Emphasis on the young.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    @another_richard - that's very funny.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,992
    Mr. Away, the level of incompetence is alarming, and the executive order is clearly unjust. I do wonder, though, if the media are not in danger of over-egging the cake. As for German criticism, I'd guess most Britons would prefer a Trumptonic approach to a Teutonic one.

    This is unlikely to be the most stupid thing Trump will do.
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    The economic predictions at the end of June were pretty choice as well:

    Tyson:
    ' And the recession is coming to pass, and it is going to be worse than project fear spelt out. Our real economy is now grinding to a shuddering halt.....don't look at the ups and downs of the stock market (which is bad enough)- look at people and businesses spending money, banks lending money. I think you'll find we've hit a wall. '

    ' I was referring to the stock market and sterling- but I think now the 20% correction is going to be happen sooner.

    The real economy- you know that bit that employs people and pays tax- that part is already gone. When you have those quarterly revisions- and you get comments like...the weather had an impact, and growth was 1,3% instead of 1.4%....what kind of impact do you think this monumental clusterfuck is having? It's going to feed into those economic growth figures quarter after quarter. Britain will come out of this.....not as bad as the 2008 crash, but we are a much weaker economy now than then. And like always the poor will suffer.

    BTW a house price crash is not good for the economy, well not ours which is driven by consumer debt '

    Alastair Meeks:
    ' Britain’s Standard & Poors credit rating has dropped two notches, the pound has suffered its biggest fall in one day against the dollar ever, markets around the world have crashed and recession is beckoning with a dark cloak, a skeletal finger and a voice that speaks in block capitals. '
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    edited January 2017

    Mr. Away, the level of incompetence is alarming, and the executive order is clearly unjust. I do wonder, though, if the media are not in danger of over-egging the cake. As for German criticism, I'd guess most Britons would prefer a Trumptonic approach to a Teutonic one.

    This is unlikely to be the most stupid thing Trump will do.

    That, Mr Dancer, is the scary bit!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264

    Just another "alternative fact"!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711

    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,992
    Mr. S, just one more advantage of reading history.

    Honorius, when he wasn't busy treacherously murdering Rome's last competent general, was horrified to discover Rome had fallen. He was greatly relieved to find it was merely the city, and not his favourite chicken, who had the same name.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    Agreed. Not a single market for me either. The fiction of the 'single market' whilst there are 6054 languages in Europe is just another example of the cognitive dissonance of Euromadness.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    edited January 2017
    Delete

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    I agree - Trump is engaging in the modern day equivalent of blitzkrieg on his liberal enemies. Remember Mexico and the wall ? - yesterday's news - as today's federal injunction takes over. Soon the liberals will have so many protests to go to they won't be able to stop the real smaller changes that Trump wants to happen and will get through.

    That is certainly one possibility. As someone said yesterday, he has released hundreds of rabbits, and "liberals" are chasing all of them.

    It's also possible having successfully launched Blitzkrieg on the low countries, he has now launched Operation Barbarossa without preparing for Winter...
    Next step - paying for the wall. Witholding Tax of 30% by banks and money transfer agents of all remittances to Mexico. Legal workers get the tax back through their tax returns, illegal workers or those not paying enough tax to offset the witholding tax (ie getting funds from black economy) don't.
    I wonder if the amount of money remitted to Mexico will fall and the amount to, say, Canada increases.
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    SeanT said:

    Back at the end of June many of PB's 'finest' seemed to be predicting a very soft Brexit:

    Yellow Submarine:
    ' The Conservative Party has to choose between shafting Hartlepool over ' Immigration ' or shafting the City of London over the Financial Service Passport. It'll shaft Hartlepool. The referendum didn't address this debate. Leave lied about it to win. The big question in UK politics now is whether the Conservative leadership election now faces upto this choice or kicks the can further down the road. '

    SeanT:
    ' I agree. That's what they will have to do, economically. The pressure they will now be under, from their donors and backers, will be enormous: save the single market, accept Free Movement, fuck Hartlepool. It's a brave Tory PM who says Boo to the City. I can't think of any Tory PM who has ever done it. '

    Or no Brexit at all:

    Scott_P
    ' Watch the markets, and the evening news. The Brexiteers are already mumbling about "staying in" as much as they think their useful idiots will swallow

    In a few weeks people will be begging for "in" '

    ' Ok, here's an idea

    May and Boris fight the leadership on an in/out ticket

    May wins, tells Brussels we are staying. Osborne as chancellor. "Punishment" budget in the Autumn to start clearing up the mess '

    Yep. I was completely wrong. Hopecasting I think. I WANTED a Soft Brexit.
    Not as wrong as Scott - I wonder whether that was his attempts to think for himself rather than copying other people's tweets or if that was what Osborne Central was then expecting.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Nigelb said:

    Dromedary said:

    Trump has met Britain's PM and will speak on the phone today to the leaders of Russia, France, Germany, Japan, and Australia.

    Is the mainland Chinese government giving him the cold shoulder?

    There are many things about Trump's presidency to be scared about, but his implication that he may attempt to block Chinese access to the Spratly islands has got to be on the list.

    The Chinese have his number, apparently:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/01/china-new-year-rooster-soldiers/514703/
    I wonder what that rooster's hand signals signify. Are there any Sinologists in the house?

    image
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    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
    100% agree. If I had been voting in the States I would have held my nose and voted Clinton. She wouldn't have made anything better and would probably have made things moderately worse for many people. But that would still have been better than Trump.
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    A white supremacist on the National Security Council. What could possibly go wrong?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/28/lobbying-ban-trump-executive-order-isis-strategy?CMP=share_btn_tw
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    SeanT said:

    Trump's (temporary) ban is clumsy, messy and possibly counterproductive. But there's a lot of liberal overreaction. Carter banned all Iranians, I think. And Shia? Obama banned Iraqis. And of course Obama has been bombing and droning Muslims for eight years. A drone on your head is a LOT messier than a 90 day wait for a visa.

    Yet I don't recall Le tout Manhattan marching on the White House when Obama hit the drone button time and again.

    Obama was very trigger happy when it came to the use of drones, increasing the rate of strikes five fold over Bush's time. The reason for this increased use of drones to kill "terrorists"* was apparently to avoid too many boots-on-the-ground special forces operations. Jeremy Scahill has written a lot about this that is worth reading. Obama received surprisingly little criticism for this policy change.

    * I stuck the quotes on that because the rules on who is a terrorist when drone strikes are carried out are very broad.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    edited January 2017
    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    Though that's not quite the same thing. in effect, what you're doing is selling franchises of your book and as that's your property, how you do that is your decision. You (or your publisher) could presumably sell distribution rights sub-divided within the UK by region or town if you so chose as well but it wouldn't mean that the UK isn't a single market.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    Soon there will be demands for a referendum to stop these Brits coming in and changing the cultural landscape. Fish and chip shops and curry houses.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191

    SeanT said:

    Back at the end of June many of PB's 'finest' seemed to be predicting a very soft Brexit:

    Yellow Submarine:
    ' The Conservative Party has to choose between shafting Hartlepool over ' Immigration ' or shafting the City of London over the Financial Service Passport. It'll shaft Hartlepool. The referendum didn't address this debate. Leave lied about it to win. The big question in UK politics now is whether the Conservative leadership election now faces upto this choice or kicks the can further down the road. '

    SeanT:
    ' I agree. That's what they will have to do, economically. The pressure they will now be under, from their donors and backers, will be enormous: save the single market, accept Free Movement, fuck Hartlepool. It's a brave Tory PM who says Boo to the City. I can't think of any Tory PM who has ever done it. '

    Or no Brexit at all:

    Scott_P
    ' Watch the markets, and the evening news. The Brexiteers are already mumbling about "staying in" as much as they think their useful idiots will swallow

    In a few weeks people will be begging for "in" '

    ' Ok, here's an idea

    May and Boris fight the leadership on an in/out ticket

    May wins, tells Brussels we are staying. Osborne as chancellor. "Punishment" budget in the Autumn to start clearing up the mess '

    Yep. I was completely wrong. Hopecasting I think. I WANTED a Soft Brexit.
    Not as wrong as Scott - I wonder whether that was his attempts to think for himself rather than copying other people's tweets or if that was what Osborne Central was then expecting.
    It very much ties in with the Dominic Cummings blog where he says that the pundits should have their previous predictions put on screen when they're talking.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @philipoltermann: No mention of Muslim ban in yesterday's readout of Merkel-Trump. Now her spokesperson says she "explained" the Geneva convention to him
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    He's wrong. They were going anyway. Brexit is just a convenient excuse
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    Opposition is so easy, isn't it.

    Meanwhile, the grown ups govern and VEBs are on the back/opposition benches.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    Opposition is so easy, isn't it.

    Is it easier than appeasement?
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    What TM thinks of Trump is immaterial. What bit of her he grabs is no never mind.

    She knows that "You salute the pips, not the man".

    Not much, granted. But it makes her cannier than the entire lefty-metropolitan elite( why is there no PB shorthand for that?).
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    How do you manage in Ireland? AFAIR they use two languages? Or Austria?
    That's why I said "nation and/or language". It blurs. UK rights include Ireland, the Commonwealth, and all English language countries ex-USA/Canada, also all English sales in non Anglophone countries.

    German rights include Austria and that bit of Switzerland. France is France, and half of Belgium, Etc.

    Spain is Spain and Spanish-speaking America.

    But there are further anomalies. For reason I dunno, Portugal and Brazil are separate (I am happy to say S K Tremayne is very popular in Brazil, god knows why, but it's very nice money from a big new market). There are three Chinese rights: complex Chinese, simplified Chinese, and Taiwan.

    The smallest sale I've ever made is Ice Twins to Albania. €500.
    'Albania wasn't worth getting out of bed for' - possible memoirs title?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
    If anyone thought he wasn't dangerous before now, they weren't paying attention. What has he done that's dangerous that he hadn't previously said he'd do?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    Care to explain?!
    The way they treat their mothers is a good indication. No respect / mothers have no authority

    (Edit: although as @Bobajob points out this is indicative of the parents religion not that if the child)
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    Though that's not quite the same thing. in effect, what you're doing is selling franchises of your book and as that's your property, how you do that is your decision. You (or your publisher) could presumably sell distribution rights sub-divided within the UK by region or town if you so chose as well but it would mean that the UK isn't a single market.

    Yep - the deals are all subject to European law. Before the single market, for example, the period of copyright authors enjoyed was different in different in European countries. Now it has been harmonised (to the German standard - life plus 70 years).

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,018
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    How do you manage in Ireland? AFAIR they use two languages? Or Austria?
    That's why I said "nation and/or language". It blurs. UK rights include Ireland, the Commonwealth, and all English language countries ex-USA/Canada, also all English sales in non Anglophone countries.

    German rights include Austria and that bit of Switzerland. France is France, and half of Belgium, Etc.

    Spain is Spain and Spanish-speaking America.

    But there are further anomalies. For reason I dunno, Portugal and Brazil are separate (I am happy to say S K Tremayne is very popular in Brazil, god knows why, but it's very nice money from a big new market). There are three Chinese rights: complex Chinese, simplified Chinese, and Taiwan.

    The smallest sale I've ever made is Ice Twins to Albania. €500.
    Interesting, thanks.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,094
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    It's petition time again...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928
  • Options

    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
    100% agree. If I had been voting in the States I would have held my nose and voted Clinton. She wouldn't have made anything better and would probably have made things moderately worse for many people. But that would still have been better than Trump.

    Yep - as I said last night, this is absolutely not a left or right thing. You do not have to be a hand-wringing lefty to believe that it is wrong to prevent people who have made their lives in the US, paid US taxes and committed no crimes in the US from re-entering the country, or to discriminate against the citizens of any country because of where they happened to be born.

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264

    The truth is Trump can't keep his creepy hands away from women. He just needs to try it out.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,052

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    With how many false positives?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    Scott - were you opposed to the Chinese state visit in 2015? That resulted in Sun Jihai being inducted into the National Football Hall of Fame!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    Opposition is so easy, isn't it.

    Is it easier than appeasement?
    As I said, meanwhile the grown ups understand nuance, consequences and wider impacts.

    Those who wants us to disassociate ourselves from the US = the new headbangers.

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Woke up to find Theresa May hasn't resigned, Donald Trump is still President, and Jeremy Corbyn has almost split Labour in two over Article 50. What else did I miss?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,949
    dr_spyn said:

    Woke up to find Theresa May hasn't resigned, Donald Trump is still President, and Jeremy Corbyn has almost split Labour in two over Article 50. What else did I miss?

    Directors of the Outrage Bus Co. are making a fortune...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tlg86 said:

    Scott - were you opposed to the Chinese state visit in 2015?

    Sadly I am unable to answer that question as my hotline to Osborne Central doesn't seem to be working for some reason...
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    SeanT said:

    The smallest sale I've ever made is Ice Twins to Albania. €500.

    You should have published it there under the name of N. J. Wisdom.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    It's petition time again...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928
    Another example of willy-waving by the impotent....
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    The virtue signallers have pushed that Trump petition up to 23,500.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    Scott - were you opposed to the Chinese state visit in 2015? That resulted in Sun Jihai being inducted into the National Football Hall of Fame!

    Does China ban UK citizens from entering China based solely on where they were born?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    Scott_P said:
    But said the state visit should go ahead. Can you imagine the protests that there will be if it does happen?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,482
    Roger said:

    Only those with the sensitivity of an amoeba can still feel as confident as they did post referendum. From thinking the world was now their oyster they're now seeing the great powers slinking into protectionism and our Prime Minister in hock to a leader more unstable than the late Saddam Hussein and a hell of a lot more dangerous.

    The blind wishful thinking of the remoanerist faction here is truly pitiable. 'May won't be happy with that hashtag!' Wtf?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Gained another 1000.
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    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    He's wrong. They were going anyway. Brexit is just a convenient excuse
    Likewise it will be used as an excuse for jobs lost to computerisation, automation etc
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    edited January 2017
    The 1-5 here is absolubtely colossal, the reason being that if there is a second referendum - which perhaps is a 10% or so chance, it will come IN 2019 - as that will be when the Art 50 deal is final.

    Processes like this never shorten.

    Can anyone point out a scenario where a second referendum is held before 2019 ?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited January 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: German Chancellor Merkel: it is "not justified to put people from specific background or faith under general suspicion" to combat terrorism

    No Angela, keep those five year old Christian children under just the same level of general suspicion as young Muslim guys from war zones who have broken down fences to gain illegal access into Europe. Top plan.
    How do you automagically tell if a child is Christian, Muslim, Atheist, or any other religion?
    You can tell with a Muslim boy from quite young.
    Circumcision is NOT [ edit ] done by Muslims only. It is not laid down in the Quran.

    http://www.circinfo.net/who_in_the_world_gets_circumcised.html
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited January 2017
    Everyones favourite, Janan Ganesh, very sensible comments re May on Sunday Politics
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    25,600 signatures - how virtuous.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,482
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264

    The truth is Trump can't keep his creepy hands away from women. He just needs to try it out.
    HANDGATE. It's the talk of Twitter you know. Theresa to come crawling back recanting her evil pro-Brexit words any minute now, you'll see.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    It's petition time again...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928
    Another example of willy-waving by the impotent....
    We don't need a silly petition to raise these kind of issues.

    This is where the PM needs to show leadership and her performance in the US has been quite frankly pathetic. Incredibly weak - very similar to Blair and his relationship with Bush.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer not to treat the EU27 as some monolithic blob - you, of course, are at liberty to do as you please. Our major trading partners are the USA, China, Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands. We can toss Belgium, Italy and Spain in for good measure. We run a trade surplus with the USA & a tiny surplus with the RoI. The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.


    Yep - the deals are all subject to European law. Before the single market, for example, the period of copyright authors enjoyed was different in different in European countries. Now it has been harmonised (to the German standard - life plus 70 years).

    But that's just not true in any sensible interpretation of "single market". They operate as 28 (or so) very different markets, FOR ME

    A book that will sell well in Germany won't do so good in Spain. France is always notoriously hard to predict - like Japan. Italy is known for hating books set in Italy, written by foreigners. The Dutch buy books in English, making translation rights much smaller than you'd expect. And so on,

    Indeed I took all this on board when writing THE FIRE CHILD. Ice Twins did really well in Germany and doing really well in Germany (the world's 2nd most lucrative book market) means big bucks. So I set THE FIRE CHILD in Cornwall because Germans love books set in Cornwall.

    Right now The Fire Child ("Stiefkind"), is in the German top 20, where it has been for eight weeks in a row, peaking at number 7.

    So for me The Single Market is anything but.
    Good. Stay with your interpretation. Meanwhile, the rest of us will carry on........
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,651
    Farage pompom waving for Trump's ban on Sunday Politics.

    He must really want a job from the pussy grabber in chief.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    Scott_P said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott - were you opposed to the Chinese state visit in 2015?

    Sadly I am unable to answer that question as my hotline to Osborne Central doesn't seem to be working for some reason...
    Nicely dodged.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited January 2017
    Jobabob said:

    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."

    copyright R.Dawkins

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sOPbn3XrdU
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129
    tlg86 said:

    SeanT said:

    The smallest sale I've ever made is Ice Twins to Albania. €500.

    You should have published it there under the name of N. J. Wisdom.
    One of the companies I worked for had an office in Albania. I can't tell you how made up they were when I arranged for Norman to sign a photo of himself together with a personal message to them. It took on the mantle of a religious icon in that office.

    The Cult of Wisdom really was a thing....
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:
    Nothing new, Alex. She is out of her depth and will hold anyone's hand to get along.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    That Trump Petition has large numbers of signatures in Bristol, Brighton, Cambridge, Norwich Oxford. Good to see students taking life seriously.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=171928
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Mortimer said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Woke up to find Theresa May hasn't resigned, Donald Trump is still President, and Jeremy Corbyn has almost split Labour in two over Article 50. What else did I miss?

    Directors of the Outrage Bus Co. are making a fortune...
    You mention this bus an awaful
    isam said:

    Jobabob said:

    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."

    Jobabob said:

    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."

    copyright R.Dawkins

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sOPbn3XrdU
    Yes, Dawkins is right. What's your point?

  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited January 2017

    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
    If anyone thought he wasn't dangerous before now, they weren't paying attention. What has he done that's dangerous that he hadn't previously said he'd do?
    Before there was hope that he would not get elected. Like we have about Le Pen. Nobody takes her views very seriously. Most think she will end up as Mayor of Somewhereinthemiddle of France. Like that Dutch geezer.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    @Roger I'll be happy to split Paddy's odds and go 1-4, 4-1 with you up to £500 liability for myself.

    I'm quite confident there won't be a 2nd EU ref before 2019.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
    edited January 2017
    Jobabob said:

    Mortimer said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Woke up to find Theresa May hasn't resigned, Donald Trump is still President, and Jeremy Corbyn has almost split Labour in two over Article 50. What else did I miss?

    Directors of the Outrage Bus Co. are making a fortune...
    You mention this bus an awaful
    isam said:

    Jobabob said:

    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."

    Jobabob said:

    @OldKingCole

    The point is children have no religion - ascribing religious views to young children is as absurd as ascribing political views to them. "Marxist six-year-olds are welcome at our school."

    copyright R.Dawkins

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sOPbn3XrdU
    Yes, Dawkins is right. What's your point?

    Just pointing out that he has been saying for years what you are saying today, wondered if you had seen it. No need to be tetchy just because I tease you sometimes x
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    It's petition time again...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928
    Another example of willy-waving by the impotent....
    We don't need a silly petition to raise these kind of issues.

    This is where the PM needs to show leadership and her performance in the US has been quite frankly pathetic. Incredibly weak - very similar to Blair and his relationship with Bush.
    It's a State visit. If she wants to win over the remaining 8% of the population who don't already think her a deity, the Queen could cancel that State visit. Tell Trump to "fork orff".

    But it's not what grown-ups do.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129
    dr_spyn said:

    That Trump Petition has large numbers of signatures in Bristol, Brighton, Cambridge, Norwich Oxford. Good to see students taking life seriously.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=171928

    You telling me students are already up on a Sunday morning?

    Nah....
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,651
    So if Blair was Bush's pet poodle, should we be describing May as Trump's pet pussy?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952

    So if Blair was Bush's pet poodle, should we be describing May as Trump's pet pussy?

    The outrage bus passengers already hypocritically did that
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    He's wrong. They were going anyway. Brexit is just a convenient excuse
    I had never heard before that "financial services" were going anyway. You bankers kept it quiet.
  • Options

    PAW said:

    I think Donald Trump has done exactly the right thing. There have two or three terrorist attacks in the USA every year, and he has tied the inevitable attacks to come to his opposition. Who appear to value the rights of everybody in the world above american lives.

    Nonsense - there has been significantly less than one Islamic terrorist attack per year in the US since 9/11, which suggests the current system is working fine. Toddlers with guns are a far bigger threat to Americans.

    As others have pointed out, Saudi Arabia is not on the list despite being by far the nation with the most civilian American blood on its hands.
    Moreover the majority of the major attacks have been carried out by people who were either born in the US or moved at a very young age.

    Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad - Little Rock Attack - A convert born in Memphis Tennessee
    Nidal Malik Hasan - Fort Hood Attack - Born in Virginia
    Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez - Chattanooga Attack - moved to the US at the age of 6
    Syed Rizwan Farook - San Bernadino Attack - Born in Chicago (though his wife who took part in the attacks with him was from Pakistan)
    Omar Mateen - Orlando Attack - Born in New York
    Zale Thompson - New York Attack November 2014 - Born in New York
    Ismaaiyl Brinsley - New York Attack December 2014 - Born in New York

    In fact putting together all the major islamic attacks in the US since 2009, the majority of the attackers were born in the US.

    So how is this policy going to make a blind bit of difference?
  • Options
    daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Lib Dem leader @timfarron tells me the offer of a state visit to the UK for Donald Trump should be withdrawn #Ridge

    So that's Corbyn and Farron. Expect Nicola soon

    It's petition time again...

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928
    I disagree. One can hardly complain about inviting the leader of one of the countries with which the UK has most in common being invited, given the state visits previously accorded to evil rulers from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and elsewhere.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @philipoltermann: No mention of Muslim ban in yesterday's readout of Merkel-Trump. Now her spokesperson says she "explained" the Geneva convention to him

    But Geneva has no Trump Hotel. So how will he know where it is ? Sorry, it is a convention ! You mean, like the KKK ?
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    John_M said:

    Yes, I'll repeat what I posted last night. Those who think May should have temporised about visiting our #1 military partner, #1 intelligence partner, #1 bilateral investment partner and #1 export market are fuckwits halfwits.

    "Partner" indeed. That's not a partnership. And Britain exports FAR MORE to the rest of the EU than it does to the US.

    Britain's no.1 (excuse my British usage instead of "#") export market is EU27.

    I prefer The rest are all deficits.

    Whether you like it or not, the EU is a single market.

    Not for me it isn't. I sell translation rights for my books to each European nation and/or language individually. And very lucrative they are, I am happy to say. Danke Deutschland.
    Though that's market.

    Yep - the deals are all subject to European law. Before the single market, for example, the period of copyright authors enjoyed was different in different in European countries. Now it has been harmonised (to the German standard - life plus 70 years).

    But that's just not true in any sensible interpretation of "single market". They operate as 28 (or so) very different markets, FOR ME

    A book that will sell well in Germany won't do so good in Spain. France is always notoriously hard to predict - like Japan. Italy is known for hating books set in Italy, written by foreigners. The Dutch buy books in English, making translation rights much smaller than you'd expect. And so on,

    Indeed I took all this on board when writing THE FIRE CHILD. Ice Twins did really well in Germany and doing really well in Germany (the world's 2nd most lucrative book market) means big bucks. So I set THE FIRE CHILD in Cornwall because Germans love books set in Cornwall.

    Right now The Fire Child ("Stiefkind"), is in the German top 20, where it has been for eight weeks in a row, peaking at number 7.

    So for me The Single Market is anything but.

    The contracts you sign in each one of those territories are subject to the same law. If there is a conflict between local law and European law, European law takes precedence; just as in the US if there is a conflict between state law and federal law it is federal law that takes precedence. Of course, though, you are free to see Europe as a collection of different markets; and it clearly makes sense to in your case.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264

    Just another "alternative fact"!
    Why are Trump's ties so long ? What is he hiding ?
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: The Polish Deputy Prime Minister tells me financial services jobs are already starting to move from the UK to Poland due to Brexit #ridge

    He's wrong. They were going anyway. Brexit is just a convenient excuse
    I had never heard before that "financial services" were going anyway. You bankers kept it quiet.
    HSBC said they were considering leaving long before Brexit. The main driver of that was said to be the additional tax on global balance sheets brought in after the financial crisis. It costs them an additional $1billion a year.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,094
    edited January 2017
    surbiton said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @vincentmoss: Re "Trump doesn't like holding handrails" re May hand-holding, hacks who swallowed that guff should check footage as he gets off planes

    https://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/825643990657675264

    Just another "alternative fact"!
    Why are Trump's ties so long ? What is he hiding ?
    They're the perfect length for a man of 6'3".
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    SeanT said:

    This whole travel ban imposed by Trump is rather depressing isn' it?

    I am not a lefty and have always admired and supported the USA and deep down the reason I have done all my life is not that it is ultra capitalist but that free market ethos so ingrained means that it actually makes it easier for immigration , easier to believe you can go as an immigrant and make it as an individual , free of government interference and petty rules.

    Yes, it's very depressing, which makes it all more important that those 'on the right' which don't agree with Trump make that clear.

    The man was coming across as stupid, but he's turning dangerous.
    100% agree. If I had been voting in the States I would have held my nose and voted Clinton. She wouldn't have made anything better and would probably have made things moderately worse for many people. But that would still have been better than Trump.

    Yep - as I said last night, this is absolutely not a left or right thing. You do not have to be a hand-wringing lefty to believe that it is wrong to prevent people who have made their lives in the US, paid US taxes and committed no crimes in the US from re-entering the country, or to discriminate against the citizens of any country because of where they happened to be born.

    But it's ok for Obama to - literally - murder people with a drone, at the touch of a button. At a rate far greater than any other president. Gotcha.

    Obama even joked about his taste for droning.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/05/obama-finds-predator-drones-hilarious/340949/

    Imagine if the vulgarian Trump did THAT. Cracked a White House gag about killing people extrajudicially, even as he killed people extrajudicially?

    Your head would explode.

    The canting hypocrisy of the Left, part 492

    Not really. The use of drones makes sense to me. There are many on the left who have protested it though.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/owen-jones-getting-rid-of-george-w-bush-wasnt-enough-the-us-remains-a-bully-8073568.html

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    PAW said:

    I think Donald Trump has done exactly the right thing. There have two or three terrorist attacks in the USA every year, and he has tied the inevitable attacks to come to his opposition. Who appear to value the rights of everybody in the world above american lives.

    Nonsense - there has been significantly less than one Islamic terrorist attack per year in the US since 9/11, which suggests the current system is working fine. Toddlers with guns are a far bigger threat to Americans.

    As others have pointed out, Saudi Arabia is not on the list despite being by far the nation with the most civilian American blood on its hands.
    Moreover the majority of the major attacks have been carried out by people who were either born in the US or moved at a very young age.

    Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad - Little Rock Attack - A convert born in Memphis Tennessee
    Nidal Malik Hasan - Fort Hood Attack - Born in Virginia
    Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez - Chattanooga Attack - moved to the US at the age of 6
    Syed Rizwan Farook - San Bernadino Attack - Born in Chicago (though his wife who took part in the attacks with him was from Pakistan)
    Omar Mateen - Orlando Attack - Born in New York
    Zale Thompson - New York Attack November 2014 - Born in New York
    Ismaaiyl Brinsley - New York Attack December 2014 - Born in New York

    In fact putting together all the major islamic attacks in the US since 2009, the majority of the attackers were born in the US.

    So how is this policy going to make a blind bit of difference?
    You missed out the Georgian brothers ?
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