politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strong
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Cumming himself made the links in his extensive post referendum blog posting on the campaign (which should be required reading for anyone interested in political campaigns). Mind you he started from the position that the number could be justified. But he does say it was fundamental to the victory.Blue_rog said:
@TOPPINGTOPPING said:
Yes exactly. I don't mean to pick on @Casino_Royale but I'm interested to see that we have moved, perhaps only on PB, to the position whereby it is acknowledged that it was a lie/economic with the actualite, hence was instrumental in securing victory, andhence that that is a good thing.Richard_Tyndall said:
But on the other hand some of us said right back when the campaign was going on that it was a daft number to use. Given that the real accurate number would have been around £280 million a week it seemed particularly daft to use a number that could be reasonably challenged when there was a similarly huge number that could not be challenged. I note that Cummings did justify the number but I found his justification weak.TOPPING said:
I know but it's interesting to me that AFAICR no one hitherto has acknowledged that it was not true, that it helped Leave to win, and is happy with that.Casino_Royale said:
We have done the £350m on here dozens of times. In fact, nearly every time Scott posts that tweet - which is becoming just as tedious.TOPPING said:
Do you believe that the NHS will receive that £350m/week?Casino_Royale said:
Thanks for spreading the message and helping us secure victory.Scott_P said:
That's true. There are opportunities for all kinds ofCasino_Royale said:I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
riotsdemocratic outpourings of expression when this doesn't happen...
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1
If not, it would be the first time I've heard a Leaver acknowledge that the dissemination of an untruth was critical to Leave's success. And is happy about it.
We have rehearsed at length that both sides lied, the campaign was awful, etc, but not the above.
I don't see the inherent links0 -
Anyone got a bucket?
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May has landed in US, and the Trump romance begins. Asked how they'll get on, PM tells me: "Haven't you noticed? Opposites attract".0 -
Deputy Speaker decides which are accepted for debate.Big_G_NorthWales said:With all these amendments how do some get accepted and others rejected
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Do you know the basisRobD said:
Deputy Speaker decides which are accepted for debate.Big_G_NorthWales said:With all these amendments how do some get accepted and others rejected
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Yes, that EU bloodbath in the Tory party is going to be every bit as vicious as...hang on, that can't be right....Scott_P said:@michaelsavage: A Labour frontbencher resigns over triggering Article 50, confirming that - somehow - the first #Brexit Commons crisis is a Labour one.
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How appropriate that the shadow minister for early years, has taken an early bath.dr_spyn said:Just in time for the evening news bulletins.
https://order-order.com/2017/01/26/shadow-minister-tulip-siddiq-resigns/
A Labour MP resigns from Corbyn's front bench.0 -
No surprise, Most of the media struggle with debt vs deficit and that NHS in Wales isn't run by the Tories.tlg86 said:John Moylan - BBC's Industry and Employment Correspondent - has mixed up the Single Market and the Customs Union. What a muppet.
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What form will her intolerance take? Strong, resolute, unflinching hand wringing is my guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
She will not tolerate torture or any attack on womenAlastairMeeks said:The questions for Theresa May will be more awkward than the questions for Donald Trump. He will say whatever he feels like while she will be mindful that her own domestic audience is rather less accepting of alternative facts and alternative moralities.
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Unfortunately not, would be interested to know if someone else does!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you know the basisRobD said:
Deputy Speaker decides which are accepted for debate.Big_G_NorthWales said:With all these amendments how do some get accepted and others rejected
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??Slackbladder said:Here we go. The bells toll for Jezza.
With Tulip's resignation ?
Are you serious ?0 -
Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.0
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Not only a fairly weak password, are we also to presume he doesn't have 2FA on?0
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Mr. Borough, a triumvirate?
It's hardly Caesar, Crassus and Pompey
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And some labour tooRoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
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It's even better than that...FrancisUrquhart said:Not only a fairly weak password, are we also to presume he doesn't have 2FA on?
https://twitter.com/nash076/status/8246564003202539590 -
He'll be using a bog standard unclassified phone. Don't need 2FA for that.FrancisUrquhart said:Not only a fairly weak password, are we also to presume he doesn't have 2FA on?
*edit* Correcting myself - he might be using a BB. Poor sod.0 -
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
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Amendment (i) is inconsistent with the way A50 negotiations work. The rest are just inconsistent with the way all negotiations work.dr_spyn said:Corbyn's Brexit Bingo Card.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/824667237357330432/photo/1
House.0 -
@bbclaurak: Theresa May condemns torture and says guidance that prevents UK sharing intell with those who use it won't change - big implications0
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Meanwhile in endorsing political violence news (read some of the replies, most are gleeful, at least one does rail against the assault, though):
https://twitter.com/babycommie666/status/8244708560048332800 -
I thought google was reasonably secure? Secure enough for a twitter account at least!Scott_P said:
It's even better than that...FrancisUrquhart said:Not only a fairly weak password, are we also to presume he doesn't have 2FA on?
twitter.com/nash076/status/8246564003202539590 -
Just a minor omission...Richard_Nabavi said:Only Labour could table an amendment insisting on EU nationals retaining their rights here in the UK but forget to bother to mention UK nationals living in EU countries.
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I would not expect anything lessScott_P said:@bbclaurak: Theresa May condemns torture and says guidance that prevents UK sharing intell with those who use it won't change - big implications
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Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?
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Gmail does support 2FA. If you configure it.RobD said:I thought google was reasonably secure? Secure enough for a twitter account at least!
I think the point is that he appears to be using a personal email account for what is Government business.
No problem with that, right?
Oh, wait...0 -
All those amendments tell us is that Labour have never negotiated anything in their lives. Pathetic.ThreeQuidder said:
Amendment (i) is inconsistent with the way A50 negotiations work. The rest are just inconsistent with the way all negotiations work.dr_spyn said:Corbyn's Brexit Bingo Card.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/824667237357330432/photo/1
House.0 -
Yes, it does imply that it is being used, although I believe it has the same characters as the password prompt for the POTUS account, so maybe the email address is only used for managing social media accounts?Scott_P said:
Gmail does support 2FA. If you configure it.RobD said:I thought google was reasonably secure? Secure enough for a twitter account at least!
I think the point is that he appears to be using a personal email account for what is Government business.
No problem with that, right?
Oh, wait...0 -
No - she'll get beaten by the Tories next time. This may be her only chance of staving that off.Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Tulip Siddiq's resignation is a no-brainer really - a tiny majority in a seat where Remain won by a landslide and Lib Dems are nibbling.
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I do wonder what the government tech people are doing ...you would think these days each member of incoming administration would get the nth degree about setting all their stuff up properly and basically not let them out of the room until they have complex passwords, 2FA, etc etc etc.Scott_P said:
Gmail does support 2FA. If you configure it.RobD said:I thought google was reasonably secure? Secure enough for a twitter account at least!
I think the point is that he appears to be using a personal email account for what is Government business.
No problem with that, right?
Oh, wait...0 -
According to the official parliamentary website the working majority is currently 16:Richard_Tyndall said:
Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?
http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
That's excluding Douglas Carswell, who is obviously certain to support the government, but he'll presumably be cancelled out by Ken Clarke.
So, even without any Labour support, the majority would be pretty safe on this. I suppose the amendments might not be quite so safe, however.
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Back to 16, isn't it?Richard_Tyndall said:
Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?0 -
Has anyone looked through the SNP amendments? On current form they're much more likely to be to the point.0
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Ha, ha - I was thinking the same. However, we are way passed peak Corbyn now. The remaining believers are hunkering down, for sure. But they are becoming increasingly isolated.rottenborough said:What hope is there for social democracy in UK in next few years when one can read this:
"Labour is effectively led by a triumvirate – Corbyn, plus Abbott and McDonnell, the two MPs who are most influential upon his thinking – though Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary is growing in importance."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
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Incidentally, this morning I again laid David Miliband as next Labour leader at 18. Only for a few quid, but still. Just who are these people willing to back him so low?0
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Geezer, Crass and Pompous maybe.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, a triumvirate?
It's hardly Caesar, Crassus and Pompey0 -
Are the lib dems altogether - I thought upto 3 do not agree with FarronThreeQuidder said:
Back to 16, isn't it?Richard_Tyndall said:
Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?0 -
I'm one of them I'm afraid :AlastairMeeks said:Incidentally, this morning I again laid David Miliband as next Labour leader at 18. Only for a few quid, but still. Just who are these people willing to back him so low?
Lay
David Miliband 9.63 £142.72 £1,231.66
Back
David Miliband 17.22 £16.00 £259.52 (11th July 2016)0 -
Amazingly £24 has been traded on D Miliband at 1.82 !!0
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@Blue_rog I see @Richard_Tyndall has responded.0
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£400 looking to back Lewis at 8.6, interesting.
I'm not laying it personally.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, for a moment, I thought that was F1 and got excited (Lewis Hamilton at 8.6 would be a massive and obvious bet). Oh well.
Anyway, I'm off to wander into the frozen realm of Yorkshire. (I don't mind cold patches but it annoys me when a whole day is sub-zero).0 -
Taking the h out of Theresa May's name gives rather different results on google. Perhaps Tulip Siddiq needs to refresh her spelling.0
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You'd be surprised. According the 9/11 commission report the 9/11 hijackers went out drinking and partying together a few nights before the attacks.FrancisUrquhart said:The sky reporter "quoting" intelligence sources thay giving terrorist suspects a bottle of beer often more effective than torture...given most of the people who have been tortured by the us are strict Muslims somehow doubt that unless they mean they threaten to force feed said beer.
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I found Lalaland underwhelming in fact baffling. For a film with 14 nominations I expected a musical closer to Cabaret than Mama Mia! Apart from a few awards for music and sound I'd be struggling. Perhaps the Acadamy were so depressed with Trump etc that they wanted something to cheer them up and make themselves feel important and it was all set around their studios. I'm looking forward to Hackshaw Ridge. I always stay through the credits but thanks I'll watch out for somethingMarqueeMark said:
Agree on "Jackie" - her performance WAS the film. Must be a strong favourite unless the Academy go completely bonkers over La La Land. Which has to be a possibility, it being set in LA and all...Roger said:" MarqueeMark said:
Roger, an underwhelming set of OSCAR nominations.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop."
MM
I'm just catching up. I saw Manchester by the Sea which I thought was pretty good though too depressing to win anything but I did think Casey Affleck was good. I also saw 'Jackie' which I liked a lot and if NP doesn't win best actress I'd be very surprised. A compulsive performance as was the film. Very well directed too for such a small tale and not like a biopic at all which I generally don't like. Next to see is Lalaland this afternoon then Hidden Figures which I'm looking forward to and Hacksaw Ridge less so.
Hacksaw RIdge has a very strong potential appeal to the liberal left - a true story of a conscientious objector, the hell he has to go through in training and his extraordinary war - being capped off by receiving the highest gallantry medal in the US. The sort of story that might well appeal to those who really dislike Trump - and I'm thinking that is maybe 85% of Academy voters. (Set against that, I guess many would not want to see Mel Gibson to prosper as director - so the value there is on Andrew Garfield who is well gong-worthy). BTW make sure you stay to the very end of Hacksaw Ridge (which is a bit of an endurance, because arguably its only fault is it feels a good 15 minutes too long).0 -
Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
I know many Muslims who drink just as I know many Jews who eat bacon and many Christians who break various commandments etcnot_on_fire said:
You'd be surprised. According the 9/11 commission report the 9/11 hijackers went out drinking and partying together a few nights before the attacks.FrancisUrquhart said:The sky reporter "quoting" intelligence sources thay giving terrorist suspects a bottle of beer often more effective than torture...given most of the people who have been tortured by the us are strict Muslims somehow doubt that unless they mean they threaten to force feed said beer.
Just because something is a sin in your religion doesn't mean nobody does it.0 -
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
it would be quite the irony if Tulip's resignation was the first domino to trigger a general election, because it's fair to say she might well lose her seat.surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
The only way that would happen is if the government somehow loses the vote on A50?Brom said:
it would be quite the irony if Tulip's resignation was the first domino to trigger a general election, because it's fair to say she might well lose her seat.surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
Tulip Siddiq is related to some shrewd Prime Ministers...
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/tulip-siddiq-a-heritage-in-bangadeshi-politics-a-future-in-british-8720884.html
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Yes, very very unlikely. The government were right to give as short a period as possible to debate the bill - any longer and there might end up with more Tory dissenters than the usual suspects. As things stand Soubry, Wollaston and co have got as much if not more than they asked for (vote in parliament, white paper) and should support the vote.RobD said:
The only way that would happen is if the government somehow loses the vote on A50?Brom said:
it would be quite the irony if Tulip's resignation was the first domino to trigger a general election, because it's fair to say she might well lose her seat.surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
I think there's at least a chance that we'll have a Spring GE, FTPA notwithstanding.RobD said:
The only way that would happen is if the government somehow loses the vote on A50?Brom said:
it would be quite the irony if Tulip's resignation was the first domino to trigger a general election, because it's fair to say she might well lose her seat.surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
So much for 'sucking up'
THERESA May has warned Donald Trump that Britain will have to stop sharing crucial intelligence with the US if he brings back torture.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2715067/theresa-may-warns-donald-trump-britain-will-stop-sharing-crucial-intelligence-with-the-us-if-he-brings-back-torture/0 -
Yeah, but a small chance. It would require a large U turn from May.John_M said:
I think there's at least a chance that we'll have a Spring GE, FTPA notwithstanding.RobD said:
The only way that would happen is if the government somehow loses the vote on A50?Brom said:
it would be quite the irony if Tulip's resignation was the first domino to trigger a general election, because it's fair to say she might well lose her seat.surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
What a turd Corbyn is. For someone like him to issue a three line whip on anything is the definition of irony.0
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Think it is labour who are going downsurbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
Trump about to speak in Philly:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/real-time/Trump-in-Philly-for-GOP-retreat-Live-updates.html0 -
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.0 -
It should for being cowardly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Think it is labour who are going downsurbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!0 -
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.0 -
Politically, it would actually do May a great deal of good to be seen to be standing up to Trump. It would win her a lot of respect, even from people like me who are very dubious - to say the least - about her.CarlottaVance said:So much for 'sucking up'
THERESA May has warned Donald Trump that Britain will have to stop sharing crucial intelligence with the US if he brings back torture.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2715067/theresa-may-warns-donald-trump-britain-will-stop-sharing-crucial-intelligence-with-the-us-if-he-brings-back-torture/
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Corbyn and May have little in common, except this; they both have strongly held beliefs and aren't particularly shy about expressing them. May is a Christian, and she wouldn't be able to temporise or dissemble on a topic like torture. Still proud of her statement.SouthamObserver said:
Politically, it would actually do May a great deal of good to be seen to be standing up to Trump. It would win her a lot of respect, even from people like me who are very dubious - to say the least - about her.CarlottaVance said:So much for 'sucking up'
THERESA May has warned Donald Trump that Britain will have to stop sharing crucial intelligence with the US if he brings back torture.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2715067/theresa-may-warns-donald-trump-britain-will-stop-sharing-crucial-intelligence-with-the-us-if-he-brings-back-torture/0 -
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Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories0 -
People wanting to back UKIP at 1.77 now on Betfair. There must be a poll
If we think nothing has changed, Lab at 2.42 is a must bet0 -
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
If Labour was against A50, at least, 50 Tories would join the opposition.RobD said:
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
At least 50? Where did you get that number from?surbiton said:
If Labour was against A50, at least, 50 Tories would join the opposition.RobD said:
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
Not now with white paper agreedsurbiton said:
If Labour was against A50, at least, 50 Tories would join the opposition.RobD said:
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
So many commentators predicting a hard time for TM but they do not know her. Tomorrow could just be the day TM does our Country proud and has big influence on events for the better0
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There were certainly reports to this effect last year. Can't remember who all three were, but pretty sure one was Norman Lamb. This is understandable: I don't know about the constituency exactly, but the district voted 59:41 to Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are the lib dems altogether - I thought upto 3 do not agree with FarronThreeQuidder said:
Back to 16, isn't it?Richard_Tyndall said:
Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?
Lamb has a 4,000 majority over the Tories, with Ukip a comfortable third.0 -
TM the PM! Im gonna keep saying it til it sticks!Big_G_NorthWales said:So many commentators predicting a hard time for TM but they do not know her. Tomorrow could just be the day TM does our Country proud and has big influence on events for the better
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According to Staggers, BMG just told Corbyn et al that what happened to labour in Scotland post-indyref is happening again post-brexit;isam said:People wanting to back UKIP at 1.77 now on Betfair. There must be a poll
If we think nothing has changed, Lab at 2.42 is a must bet
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
Seems to imply a stoke BMG poll which isn't favourable for Lab.
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This Trump presser is .........Interesting!0
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What's he done now?TwistedFireStopper said:This Trump presser is .........Interesting!
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I think the 3 were from leave voting constituenciesBlack_Rook said:
There were certainly reports to this effect last year. Can't remember who all three were, but pretty sure one was Norman Lamb. This is understandable: I don't know about the constituency exactly, but the district voted 59:41 to Leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are the lib dems altogether - I thought upto 3 do not agree with FarronThreeQuidder said:
Back to 16, isn't it?Richard_Tyndall said:
Even if he won - which he won't - this vote will be before the by-election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nuttall maybe ?RoyalBlue said:Surely the Government will simply order Tory MPs to reject all of these on a 3-line whip basis? Presumably the DUP and Carswell will help out too.
Just out of interest since Corbyn is down 2 MPs at the moment, what is the Tory majority on paper?
Lamb has a 4,000 majority over the Tories, with Ukip a comfortable third.0 -
Oh shit..sounds the alarm and heads for the bomb shelter...TwistedFireStopper said:This Trump presser is .........Interesting!
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Every thing is gonna be great, so special. We're doing amazing things, good things, gonna be so, so special.RobD said:0 -
Tam Dalyell has died.0
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He's been speaking resolutely but with no shouting - will go down well with RepublicansRobD said:0 -
And 'join the opposition' is quite a different thing from 'oppose the bill' !Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not now with white paper agreedsurbiton said:
If Labour was against A50, at least, 50 Tories would join the opposition.RobD said:
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
May avoids questions on US trade deal implications for NHS
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-nhs-us-trade-deal-brexit-torture-a7548156.html0 -
TM the PM could be in for an interesting time tomorrow!TwistedFireStopper said:This Trump presser is .........Interesting!
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What a headline! She also suggested it wouldn't be, because she didn't saying anything about it at all!williamglenn said:May avoids questions on US trade deal implications for NHS
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-nhs-us-trade-deal-brexit-torture-a7548156.html0 -
Fake news. The Independent isn't long for this world.williamglenn said:May avoids questions on US trade deal implications for NHS
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-nhs-us-trade-deal-brexit-torture-a7548156.html0 -
Did I just read a Labourite referring to 'sensible Tories'. Isn't that the stuff of excommunication from Labour? Doesn't the poster know that there is no such thing and all Tories are baby eaters and worse?surbiton said:
If Labour was against A50, at least, 50 Tories would join the opposition.RobD said:
Still not 'almost all', whatever way you try to fudge the numbers. And I think there is only one Tory MP that has confirmed he won't vote for A50, so your definition of hardline is basically the entire party (maybe intentionally!)surbiton said:
Labour is for A50 because of the cowardly Corbyn.RobD said:
Almost all? More like 4 vs. 5.surbiton said:
The real irony would be if May calls an early GE despite supine Labour/Corbyn trying to avert one by effectively hiding away from a tough decision.Roger said:
Completely agree. Watch out for Ian Murray too. Maybe Theresa can form an alliance with Marine Le Pen?surbiton said:Well done to Tulip Siddiq for defying the 3 line whip imposed cowardly by Corbyn. I thought Corbyn said he welcomes an early election. What's the problem then ?
Bring down this government!
Almost all opposition parties are in favour of defeating A50. If they were serious , many Tories would join. Easily amendments can be drawn up saying the people must be consulted after the final agreement in published before Parliament votes to leave the EU.
The amendment should also carry the clause that the referendum decision will be binding.
All areas covered.
Labour, DUP, UUP and UKIP vs.
SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green.
The real breakdown is:
Hardline Tory, DUP, UUP ? and UKIP vs.
Labour, SNP, LD, PC, SDLP, Green and SENSIBLE Tories
UUP will vote for A50
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/our-two-mps-will-vote-to-trigger-article-50-says-proremain-uup-35185255.html0 -
Don't suppose we'll never get an answer to the West Lothian question now.tlg86 said:Tam Dalyell has died.
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Reading the detail of YG suggests this is correct.Pong said:
According to Staggers, BMG just told Corbyn et al that what happened to labour in Scotland post-indyref is happening again post-brexit;isam said:People wanting to back UKIP at 1.77 now on Betfair. There must be a poll
If we think nothing has changed, Lab at 2.42 is a must bet
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
Seems to imply a stoke BMG poll which isn't favourable for Lab.
If the subsamples are to be believed, they are on the verge of going third in London (can scarcely believe that but they managed to lose Glasgow), are struggling to hold onto second in Southern England as well and are already locked into third in Scotland.
The one crumb of comfort for them should be that when policy is looked at, Labour continue to lead in numerous areas in Scotland and a couple in the UK.
Their problem is that they are nowhere on the defining issues of the last three years. They need Brexit completion and the slaying of SIndy.
They need Theresa May and Ruth Davidson to get them back in the game.
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"Opposites attract"CarlottaVance said:
TM the PM could be in for an interesting time tomorrow!TwistedFireStopper said:This Trump presser is .........Interesting!
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There's a new thread folks!0
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I find Yougov's London crossbreaks tend to be a bit dodgy, Labour tend to be too low. Also the Lib Dem break here is out of line with previous yougov polls, the last 11 polls average at 12% (excluding don't knows) for the Libs with little variation. On the other hand their other crossbreaks tend to be fairly ok. In fact if it wasn't for a really dodgy crossbreak for the Rest of South in their final Yougov/STimes they would have pretty much nailed GE15.chestnut said:
Reading the detail of YG suggests this is correct.Pong said:
According to Staggers, BMG just told Corbyn et al that what happened to labour in Scotland post-indyref is happening again post-brexit;isam said:People wanting to back UKIP at 1.77 now on Betfair. There must be a poll
If we think nothing has changed, Lab at 2.42 is a must bet
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
Seems to imply a stoke BMG poll which isn't favourable for Lab.
If the subsamples are to be believed, they are on the verge of going third in London (can scarcely believe that but they managed to lose Glasgow), are struggling to hold onto second in Southern England as well and are already locked into third in Scotland.
The one crumb of comfort for them should be that when policy is looked at, Labour continue to lead in numerous areas in Scotland and a couple in the UK.
Their problem is that they are nowhere on the defining issues of the last three years. They need Brexit completion and the slaying of SIndy.
They need Theresa May and Ruth Davidson to get them back in the game.
The average of the crossbreaks are currently showing Labour sliding in the Midlands and as well as the North, with the Tories rising in the North to parity.
Usual caveats about crossbreaks apply,
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There seems to be a pattern of such behaviour IIRC - Islamist terrorists going party mode before they attack. Varying explanations - hypocrisy, (pretending) to fit in, some kind of "feast for tomorrow we die thing".not_on_fire said:
You'd be surprised. According the 9/11 commission report the 9/11 hijackers went out drinking and partying together a few nights before the attacks.FrancisUrquhart said:The sky reporter "quoting" intelligence sources thay giving terrorist suspects a bottle of beer often more effective than torture...given most of the people who have been tortured by the us are strict Muslims somehow doubt that unless they mean they threaten to force feed said beer.
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Is this how they give it to them?not_on_fire said:
You'd be surprised. According the 9/11 commission report the 9/11 hijackers went out drinking and partying together a few nights before the attacks.FrancisUrquhart said:The sky reporter "quoting" intelligence sources thay giving terrorist suspects a bottle of beer often more effective than torture...given most of the people who have been tortured by the us are strict Muslims somehow doubt that unless they mean they threaten to force feed said beer.
The Ginger Beer torture method. Pratchett eventually did reveal what the "Ginger Beer Trick" actually is, although he despaired a bit that people actually had to be told. You shake it up real good to get the fizz going, then you stick it up the poor bastard's nose. Ouch.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xweiQukBM_kFreggles said:
"Opposites attract"CarlottaVance said:
TM the PM could be in for an interesting time tomorrow!TwistedFireStopper said:This Trump presser is .........Interesting!
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