politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strong
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Yes. Bad tactics on his part, though it is not clear that either side did anything more than a wind-up.AlastairMeeks said:I'm looking forward to Harry Hayfield's write-up of this council by-election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-councillor-charles-carter-resigns-after-hes-filmed-telling-fox-hunting-protester-id-quite-like-to-shag-you_uk_5889b749e4b08868bdb0754e?
Should have kept polite and filmed it, then reported the protester.0 -
They would have to swear allegiance to the queen first......williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
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The most amusing thing has been Corbynistats on Twitter in disbeliefSlackbladder said:Vicki Young @BBCVickiYoung 3 mins3 minutes ago
Labour MP Daniel Zeichner says for others to decide whether he should lose his job for defying Jeremy Corbyn and voting against #Article50
Telling Corbyn to sack him bascially.
Having reported that some MPs would resign if whipped, and that Corbyn was whipping, accused them of fake news...
@SimonAttwood: @BethRigby Anyone can write stuff and say it's a transcript. Particularly a corporation pro Brexit and anti Corbyn. Do you have it on tape?
@BethRigby: Yes this transcript is from a broadcast clip that has been played on @skynews. We don't make up transcripts. Obviously. twitter.com/simonattwood/s…0 -
And her heirs and successors!CarlottaVance said:
They would have to swear allegiance to the queen first......williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
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No need to do that when the Brexit bill will sail through the commons with a whopping majority.SeanT said:
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.0 -
Doesn't he believe that the Euro is tantamount to an act of currency manipulation by the Germans?SeanT said:Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945
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Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.SeanT said:
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.0 -
As it has been since about 1990.Scott_P said:
Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.SeanT said:
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.
https://twitter.com/Rupert_Seggins/status/824556662375796737/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
We'd also still be in the same bodies after A50 is declared, yet that is when apocalypse is due.0 -
Just a brief comment on passports that I forgot to drop on the last thread. Being an EU member does *not* mean we have to have a burgundy coloured passport, only that we have the words "European Union" (or equivalent) at the top of the front cover. It is (and would have been) perfectly possible for us to keep the dark blue colour scheme even when we went to the new design in the 1990s. Croatia, an EU country, has a dark blue passport for example. And Sweden will soon offer their citizens the choice of passport colour.
While there is a 'recommendation' that EU countries have shades of burgundy, so as to make the lives of passport control checks at busy interchanges easier (and to make sorting of passengers into lines simple by just glancing at passport covers), passport colour has never been a treaty obligation.0 -
Yes; and if it's this good now despite the EU it's going to get so much better when we have escaped.Scott_P said:
Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.SeanT said:
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.
Everything is going to be fantastic! Really can't wait. Let's get on with it.0 -
I didn't realise that Corbyn had managed to recruit so many people to his shadow cabinet.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: I understand there are at least two shadow cabinet members who are seriously considering defying Labour's three line whip on Article 50 bill
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Just seen Mr. Smithson's stated on Twitter that UKIP are now odds on for Stoke. Must say I'm surprised.0
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Afternoon all. I can only imagine that Corbyn is self-immolating a la 1963. I seriously doubt he'll actually enforce the three line whip as it's literally the worst of all possible worlds for Labour.
Ah, me, what am I saying, he'll probably do it for precisely that reason. Perhaps, in some twisted way, he's trying to shake the PLP loose.
Baffling.0 -
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.0 -
Hm, maybe Brexit isn't worth it after all?rcs1000 said:Just a brief comment on passports that I forgot to drop on the last thread. Being an EU member does *not* mean we have to have a burgundy coloured passport, only that we have the words "European Union" (or equivalent) at the top of the front cover. It is (and would have been) perfectly possible for us to keep the dark blue colour scheme even when we went to the new design in the 1990s. Croatia, an EU country, has a dark blue passport for example. And Sweden will soon offer their citizens the choice of passport colour.
While there is a 'recommendation' that EU countries have shades of burgundy, so as to make the lives of passport control checks at busy interchanges easier (and to make sorting of passengers into lines simple by just glancing at passport covers), passport colour has never been a treaty obligation.
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It shows a commendable broad-mindness on the part of ex-Cllr Carter, not allowing political prejudice to put him off.AlastairMeeks said:I'm looking forward to Harry Hayfield's write-up of this council by-election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-councillor-charles-carter-resigns-after-hes-filmed-telling-fox-hunting-protester-id-quite-like-to-shag-you_uk_5889b749e4b08868bdb0754e?0 -
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.0 -
I agree we're leaving. That has never been in dispute.SeanT said:Maybe, maybe not. The salient point is that we aren't having a big recession, and I doubt we will before 2018, 2019. And by then Brexit is done. So your last chance of stopping it is gone.
Unless you can foresee some crazy new Remoaner wunderwaffe, a brilliant europhile V2 launched from PB's own Peenemunde.
But there will be pain to come, screaming and wailing from the very people who cheered the result, there may be winners, and there will be many, many losers.
Still, Blue Passports...0 -
A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.0
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Yes, I thought this wasn't a three line whip?justin124 said:A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.
Edit: Ah, it is a three line whip after all.0 -
There are plenty of pics of the incident and him but I'm trying to track down a photo of her.AlastairMeeks said:I'm looking forward to Harry Hayfield's write-up of this council by-election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-councillor-charles-carter-resigns-after-hes-filmed-telling-fox-hunting-protester-id-quite-like-to-shag-you_uk_5889b749e4b08868bdb0754e?
If she is actually reasonably shaggable then fair play for asking.
Maybe she's a moose and he's being sarcastic?
You can't judge this story without a photo of her. Ideally topless - for research purposes, obviously.0 -
I don't think pre A50 was ever the serious chance to stop Brexit. If anything it's surprising that public opinion didn't swing behind the result more in the immediate aftermath.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
The serious chance to stop it comes after A50 has been invoked and it is seen to be failing. There are two main ways this can happen which will possibly feed into each other - a constitutional mess over Scotland, or the absence of a deal or any meaningful deals with other countries and 'global Brexit' becoming a bad joke.
May's enthusiasm to get into bed with Trump is an early sign that she is walking a political tightrope. I still think her poll ratings will crash and burn faster than John Major's after it starts to go south.0 -
A very interesting experiment on the origins of human language suggests that Chomsky's seminal linguistics theory is wrong:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168532
Which gave me a perverse sense of satisfaction.0 -
I think you may be drastically underestimating the amount of unworried's in the country.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a small minority of us are in the fortunate position of not having to worry either way financially about Brexit.
One third of all households own their properties outright. Outright homeowners were among those most strongly supportive of Brexit.
So were social tenants and those on low incomes. They really don't have much to lose.
It is knowledge of these basic facts that seemed to escape the masterminds of project fear.0 -
I don't think it's quite a done deal yet, though we're talking about low probability events.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
1. Maugham's court case in Ireland results in an ECJ ruling that A50 is revocable (ideally, unilaterally revocable).
2. Something appallingly bad happens to the UK economy (or perhaps just one section of it - e.g. Nissan announces immediate relocation of all manufacturing to Slovenia or some such, or the City decides, en masse, that Frankfurt isn't just a howling cultural desert after all and decamps).
2a. An actual shooting war breaks out over the Baltics or Ukraine.
3. The Tories get frit, panic and withdraw A50.
As I say, unlikely. But it's a whacky old world out there.0 -
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The 1971 vote was a three line Whip on the Labour side. 69 Labour MPs rebelled and a further 20 abstained!RobD said:
Yes, I thought this wasn't a three line whip?justin124 said:A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.
Edit: Ah, it is a three line whip after all.0 -
Reflecting, if Councillor Foxhunting-Wotsit had just kept quiet he may have had a case for a report for harrassment just from the identifiable filming and the verbals under current (silly) laws, depending what she did with the film.0
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Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.0 -
Balls of plasticine.Scott_P said:Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.0 -
So we have been here before!0
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One of the the quirks of British military history that I like is that one of our double VC winners achieved both without killing anyone.CarlottaVance said:
I read up on Hacksaw Ridge after I saw the film - contrary to most Hollywood fare they actually toned down rather than exaggerated the heroics....which makes the true life story even more remarkable.MarqueeMark said:
Agree on "Jackie" - her performance WAS the film. Must be a strong favourite unless the Academy go completely bonkers over La La Land. Which has to be a possibility, it being set in LA and all...Roger said:" MarqueeMark said:
Roger, an underwhelming set of OSCAR nominations.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop."
MM
I'm just catching up. I saw Manchester by the Sea which I thought was pretty good though too depressing to win anything but I did think Casey Affleck was good. I also saw 'Jackie' which I liked a lot and if NP doesn't win best actress I'd be very surprised. A compulsive performance as was the film. Very well directed too for such a small tale and not like a biopic at all which I generally don't like. Next to see is Lalaland this afternoon then Hidden Figures which I'm looking forward to and Hacksaw Ridge less so.
Hacksaw RIdge has a very strong potential appeal to the liberal left - a true story of a conscientious objector, the hell he has to go through in training and his extraordinary war - being capped off by receiving the highest gallantry medal in the US. The sort of story that might well appeal to those who really dislike Trump - and I'm thinking that is maybe 85% of Academy voters. (Set against that, I guess many would not want to see Mel Gibson to prosper as director - so the value there is on Andrew Garfield who is well gong-worthy). BTW make sure you stay to the very end of Hacksaw Ridge (which is a bit of an endurance, because arguably its only fault is it feels a good 15 minutes too long).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noel_Godfrey_Chavasse
There's a VC winner buried near me. His, on the other hand, reads like a Blackadder skirmish.0 -
Corbyn is saved (AgainScott_P said:Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.
) 0 -
I doubt copying and pasting pro Brexit tweets on here is going to alter the course of the nation much to be honestSeanT said:
Good. You accept we're Out. So why not use your clearly capable brain to push us towards the best possible Brexit, in your opinion?Scott_P said:
I agree we're leaving. That has never been in dispute.SeanT said:Maybe, maybe not. The salient point is that we aren't having a big recession, and I doubt we will before 2018, 2019. And by then Brexit is done. So your last chance of stopping it is gone.
Unless you can foresee some crazy new Remoaner wunderwaffe, a brilliant europhile V2 launched from PB's own Peenemunde.
But there will be pain to come, screaming and wailing from the very people who cheered the result, there may be winners, and there will be many, many losers.
Still, Blue Passports...
Yes, I know you think Brexit is shit, but some Brexits must surely be shittier than others, to you. So make the leap. Accept, move on, fight the next battle. You'll be a happier man, and the nation will thank you for your service.0 -
Mr. M, good afternoon.0
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I'm afraid I don't look nearly this smart on any photos taken of me on horseback.Richard_Nabavi said:
It shows a commendable broad-mindness on the part of ex-Cllr Carter, not allowing political prejudice to put him off.AlastairMeeks said:I'm looking forward to Harry Hayfield's write-up of this council by-election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-councillor-charles-carter-resigns-after-hes-filmed-telling-fox-hunting-protester-id-quite-like-to-shag-you_uk_5889b749e4b08868bdb0754e?0 -
0
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One day I shall have to sit on the back of a horse to have my photo taken, just to see how smart I look in that position.Pulpstar said:
I'm afraid I don't look nearly this smart on any photos taken of me on horseback.Richard_Nabavi said:
It shows a commendable broad-mindness on the part of ex-Cllr Carter, not allowing political prejudice to put him off.AlastairMeeks said:I'm looking forward to Harry Hayfield's write-up of this council by-election:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-councillor-charles-carter-resigns-after-hes-filmed-telling-fox-hunting-protester-id-quite-like-to-shag-you_uk_5889b749e4b08868bdb0754e?0 -
@BBCNormanS: Cancel the leadership crisis (for now) - @labourlewis says he's backing @jeremycorbyn and the Brexit bill0
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It's all those heartfelt prayers from CCHQ.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn is saved (AgainScott_P said:Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill. )0 -
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?0 -
The mood music in the Country is just to get on with it and MP's should give the A50 bill 100% backing ex the SNP to send the message to the EU that it is now time to start talkingPulpstar said:
Corbyn is saved (AgainScott_P said:Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill. )0 -
@jessicaelgot: Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, Diane Abbott & Dawn Butler all confirming now they will vote with three-line whip on Article 50 bill. Crisis averted.0
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Mr. Meeks, be more ambitious. Let Hannibal be your inspiration, and ride an elephant instead.0
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A voodoo poll from Labour Leave.isam said:What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
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As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.SeanT said:
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.0 -
I've ridden elephants before. And donkeys. And camels. But no horses yet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, be more ambitious. Let Hannibal be your inspiration, and ride an elephant instead.
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In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.0 -
Mr. Isam, I wonder if it's a combination of the not-really-a-poll and the political shocks last year leading people to conclude (quite possibly wrongly) that we'll get more in the by-elections.
After all, Glenrothes followed Glasgow East.0 -
Probably the ludicrous Labour Leave Facebook poll which non -Anoraks were stupid enough to believe!isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?0 -
In a difference sense, so do I. We will be confronted with our choices head on, and will be forced to make them.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.0 -
The choice of Labour candidate is probably a factor.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
Overall, though, I think your implication that the shortening isn't really justified is probably right.0 -
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
"Separately, the leadership is braced to lose both Copeland and the Stoke-on-Trent by-elections."0 -
Mr. Meeks, could be wrong, but I believe I read somewhere that horses are scared of camelry (as camel cavalry is sometimes called). Something along those lines.
Cavalry aren't fond of elephants, for certain. I am unsure of donkey warfare, though.
And it's damned peculiar you've ridden those beasts but not a horse.0 -
No that moved the market at first but it bounced back to almost where it had been before. Today something has happened to make all firms go odds onwilliamglenn said:
A voodoo poll from Labour Leave.isam said:What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today0 -
That's true. There are opportunities for all kinds ofCasino_Royale said:I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
riotsdemocratic outpourings of expression when this doesn't happen...
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/10 -
BigG I would agree years more of this would test the patience of even the most politically interested voter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The mood music in the Country is just to get on with it and MP's should give the A50 bill 100% backing ex the SNP to send the message to the EU that it is now time to start talkingPulpstar said:
Corbyn is saved (AgainScott_P said:Ha!
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill. )0 -
Stephen Bush has written a quick article about Labour's travails (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-against-article-50).rkrkrk said:
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.SeanT said:
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.0 -
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.0 -
I think you simply don't understand her strategy there. Or maybe you don't wish to. Remember how effective DC's was?Scott_P said:
Tezza has already thrown that away.SeanT said:Good. You accept we're Out. So why not use your clearly capable brain to push us towards the best possible Brexit, in your opinion?
"No deal is better than a bad deal"
Politically short term for her, maybe. For us, no.0 -
He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?Richard_Nabavi said:
The choice of Labour candidate is probably a factor.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
Overall, though, I think your implication that the shortening isn't really justified is probably right.0 -
On topic... I think OGH interpretation of the survey is a bit off.
When people say issues facing Britain... I think they mean problems.
If you are keen on brexit... Would you identify it as a problem? I don't think we can assume from this that C2DE voters aren't that fussed about brexit...0 -
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.AlastairMeeks said:
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.0 -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/John_M said:We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all.
0 -
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.0 -
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.isam said:He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.0 -
Given that both MPs going when they are going might be coincidence, but is more likely seen by both them of them as wanting to be part of a process that puts the skids under Corbyn, does anyone have any on-the-ground insight as to whether the local Labour Party is going full tilt at the by-elections - or are either/both of them going to keep their leafleting boots in the hallway as they help the skids process by sitting it out?DanSmith said:http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-article-50
"Separately, the leadership is braced to lose both Copeland and the Stoke-on-Trent by-elections."0 -
Hahahahahaha! It's all a bit groundhog day with the Labour party - all we need now is for SO to tell us it's almost the end for CorbynScott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Cancel the leadership crisis (for now) - @labourlewis says he's backing @jeremycorbyn and the Brexit bill
0 -
The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised.
I do believe that Gina Miller is the unexpected loser in her pursuit of the law as the Supreme Court didn't only just give the Government the OK to decide the bill for serving A50 but that the devolved powers had no ability to derail the process.
Her aim was to frustrate the process and eventually stop Brexit but the Government now has the Supreme Court ruling that cannot be challenged0 -
Thanks for spreading the message and helping us secure victory.Scott_P said:
That's true. There are opportunities for all kinds ofCasino_Royale said:I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
riotsdemocratic outpourings of expression when this doesn't happen...
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/10 -
We want a good deal, not just any deal. That's the difference.Scott_P said:
DC said he wanted a deal, and got one.felix said:I think you simply don't understand her strategy there. Or maybe you don't wish to. Remember how effective DC's was?
Tezza said she doesn't care if we don't get a deal. And she doesn't. Others do.
Sounds like a plan...0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Thanks for spreading the message and helping us secure victory.Scott_P said:
That's true. There are opportunities for all kinds ofCasino_Royale said:I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
riotsdemocratic outpourings of expression when this doesn't happen...
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1
0 -
Mr. Meeks, being born in a stable doesn't make a man a horse.0
-
Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.isam said:He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
I think Labour will hold Stoke.
Copeland, less sure. What makes me hesitate is that there is a future for a Tory MP for Copeland (as he or she will contest and most likely claim the enlarged Barrow seat at the next General Election).
Unless Woodcock goes, there is no future for a Labour MP for Copeland.
So, I just wonder if this makes the Tory candidate and team more motivated in what will be a close by-election.
0 -
It is. If you can't see that, I can't help you.felix said:
Hahahahahaha! It's all a bit groundhog day with the Labour party - all we need now is for SO to tell us it's almost the end for CorbynScott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Cancel the leadership crisis (for now) - @labourlewis says he's backing @jeremycorbyn and the Brexit bill
0 -
Not what Tezza said.Philip_Thompson said:We want a good deal, not just any deal. That's the difference.
She's happy with no deal0 -
Can we hire them to negotiate Brexit?Scott_P said:The backdrop to Tezza and Trump...
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/8246510553928171520 -
Yes, I'm very pleasantly surprised by DD's performance.Big_G_NorthWales said:The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised.
...0 -
That is a rather good idea.MarqueeMark said:
Can we hire them to negotiate Brexit?Scott_P said:The backdrop to Tezza and Trump...
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/8246510553928171520 -
Amazing that not only did he win the VC twice but also the MC - the second highest gallantry medal - earlier in the war. An incredibly brave man.BannedInParis said:
One of the the quirks of British military history that I like is that one of our double VC winners achieved both without killing anyone.CarlottaVance said:
I read up on Hacksaw Ridge after I saw the film - contrary to most Hollywood fare they actually toned down rather than exaggerated the heroics....which makes the true life story even more remarkable.MarqueeMark said:
Agree on "Jackie" - her performance WAS the film. Must be a strong favourite unless the Academy go completely bonkers over La La Land. Which has to be a possibility, it being set in LA and all...Roger said:" MarqueeMark said:
Roger, an underwhelming set of OSCAR nominations.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop."
MM
I'm just catching up. I saw Manchester by the Sea which I thought was pretty good though too depressing to win anything but I did think Casey Affleck was good. I also saw 'Jackie' which I liked a lot and if NP doesn't win best actress I'd be very surprised. A compulsive performance as was the film. Very well directed too for such a small tale and not like a biopic at all which I generally don't like. Next to see is Lalaland this afternoon then Hidden Figures which I'm looking forward to and Hacksaw Ridge less so.
Hacksaw RIdge has a very strong potential appeal to the liberal left - a true story of a conscientious objector, the hell he has to go through in training and his extraordinary war - being capped off by receiving the highest gallantry medal in the US. The sort of story that might well appeal to those who really dislike Trump - and I'm thinking that is maybe 85% of Academy voters. (Set against that, I guess many would not want to see Mel Gibson to prosper as director - so the value there is on Andrew Garfield who is well gong-worthy). BTW make sure you stay to the very end of Hacksaw Ridge (which is a bit of an endurance, because arguably its only fault is it feels a good 15 minutes too long).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noel_Godfrey_Chavasse
There's a VC winner buried near me. His, on the other hand, reads like a Blackadder skirmish.
0 -
So anyone born of a drunken one night stand is unable to live up to anything positive?AlastairMeeks said:
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.0 -
His plan lost the referendum.Scott_P said:
DC said he wanted a deal, and got one.felix said:I think you simply don't understand her strategy there. Or maybe you don't wish to. Remember how effective DC's was?
Tezza said she doesn't care if we don't get a deal. And she doesn't. Others do.
Sounds like a plan...
Theresa May did not say that.
As I thought you've closed your ears.0 -
The problem with that plan from McDonnell is that if they vote through article 50 with no amendments of theirs added (which is possible - maybe even probable) they are on the sidelines shouting from that point on. And all their opponents will be able to say "well, you voted for it".John_M said:
Stephen Bush has written a quick article about Labour's travails (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-against-article-50).rkrkrk said:
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.SeanT said:
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.0 -
That's fair enough and something we agree on.williamglenn said:
In a difference sense, so do I. We will be confronted with our choices head on, and will be forced to make them.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.0 -
A GE conversely might split parties as MPs campaign saying I will or won't vote for A50.John_M said:
Stephen Bush has written a quick article about Labour's travails (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/why-has-jeremy-corbyn-committed-labour-voting-against-article-50).rkrkrk said:
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.SeanT said:
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.Scott_P said:@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.
It could be a re run of the referendum except with a lower, more remain focused turnout and might strengthen remainers resolve to ignore referendum if they were re-elected on that platform.
Imagine the chaos if we ended up with a hung parliament?
I think TM is right to be wary about an early election.0 -
Won't be necessary, we have Liam Fox with Iain Duncan Smith waiting in reserve.AlastairMeeks said:
That is a rather good idea.MarqueeMark said:
Can we hire them to negotiate Brexit?Scott_P said:The backdrop to Tezza and Trump...
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/8246510553928171520 -
Definition for 'almost' required.SouthamObserver said:
It is. If you can't see that, I can't help you.felix said:
Hahahahahaha! It's all a bit groundhog day with the Labour party - all we need now is for SO to tell us it's almost the end for CorbynScott_P said:@BBCNormanS: Cancel the leadership crisis (for now) - @labourlewis says he's backing @jeremycorbyn and the Brexit bill
0 -
I own the miniature medals and medal ribbons of Charles Hazlitt Upham, VC and Bar. Reading about him, he was a nutter. He used to stroll around the battle field with a bag of grenades, blowing things up. There were probably six separate occasions when he could have justifiably been awarded the VC, but they thought twice would suffice.BannedInParis said:
One of the the quirks of British military history that I like is that one of our double VC winners achieved both without killing anyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noel_Godfrey_Chavasse
There's a VC winner buried near me. His, on the other hand, reads like a Blackadder skirmish.0 -
Really, Labour should hold both comfortably. At this rate I'll be topping up my Labour position with perhaps the tiniest hint of LD at 50ish for a giggle.DanSmith said:
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.AlastairMeeks said:
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.0 -
Put like that, we should add another $250,000pa onto our initial offer to each of the septics.Pulpstar said:
Won't be necessary, we have Liam Fox with Iain Duncan Smith waiting in reserve.AlastairMeeks said:
That is a rather good idea.MarqueeMark said:
Can we hire them to negotiate Brexit?Scott_P said:The backdrop to Tezza and Trump...
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/8246510553928171520 -
See John Woodcock and Isabel Hardman are reputed to be an item. I hope it works out for her following her recent depressionYBarddCwsc said:Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.isam said:He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
I think Labour will hold Stoke.
Copeland, less sure. What makes me hesitate is that there is a future for a Tory MP for Copeland (as he or she will contest and most likely claim the enlarged Barrow seat at the next General Election).
Unless Woodcock goes, there is no future for a Labour MP for Copeland.
So, I just wonder if this makes the Tory candidate and team more motivated in what will be a close by-election.0 -
It (and it really does) genuinely upset me that you think that but border control was always going to feature in any Leave campaign, and rightly so.AlastairMeeks said:
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Leave won from a coalition of sovereignists, including many centrists, graduates and post graduates, as well as those concerned on immigration. It wouldn't have got 52% otherwise.
Any either or strategy would have topped out at 35% for Leave.0 -
This episode of The Reunion is well worth a listen.Big_G_NorthWales said:The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0783m5p
0 -
-
Curses! Scott beat me to it!
0 -
Leave got over the line with "Turkey (population 76 million) is joining the EU" and the Breaking Point poster. Mealymouthed nonsense about a coalition is just that: mealymouthed nonsense.Casino_Royale said:
It (and it really does) genuinely upset me that you think that but border control was always going to feature in any Leave campaign, and rightly so.AlastairMeeks said:
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.Casino_Royale said:
In your opinion.AlastairMeeks said:
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.Casino_Royale said:
It's a rage against the dying of the light.SeanT said:
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?williamglenn said:Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen.
2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Leave won from a coalition of sovereignists, including many centrists, graduates and post graduates, as well as those concerned on immigration.
Any either or strategy would have topped out at 35% for Leave.
Having won by pandering to xenophobia, Brexit is damned from the start by the way in which it was won.
0 -
Pro Labour in Stoke. But anti-UKiP in Copeland.ThreeQuidder said:
Really, Labour should hold both comfortably. At this rate I'll be topping up my Labour position with perhaps the tiniest hint of LD at 50ish for a giggle.DanSmith said:
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.AlastairMeeks said:
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.isam said:Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
Bit annoyed I didn't get on the better odds available later in Stoke but don't want to bet much on this one.0 -
Seriously, is Corbyn doing this on purpose? Extraordinary.0
