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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Mrs May outdistancing Mrs Thatcher’s tenure as Prim

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    Bloody hell - surely Tory Brexit cannot involve initiating a trade war with our single biggest export market. That would be disastrous. There seems to be very little that the Tories will not inflict on the British people in order to get us out of the EU.

    It was the British people who voted to Leave the EU, the Tory leader at the time wanted us to Remain as did the present PM. The majority of Leave voters wanted control of free movement and if the EU refuse to allow that at all and allow full access to the single market at the same time it will be the EU who have decided to launch a trade war not the UK. Of course more UK exports go to the U.S. than any individual EU nation and more to the rest of the world than the EU
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    The only difference now is that the leader of the free world is saying it
    Wow. I am leader of the free world? No wonder we have so many problems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    welshowl said:

    Re daft signs.

    In 2008 or thereabouts someone in Swansea ( council?) sent a note in English to the translation dept to have the sign bilingualised into Welsh as all road signs are here. The English said "Heavy goods vehicle restricted access" or something similar. The translation duly came back quickly with the Welsh version from the translator. This Welsh was duly put on the sign and the sign was made and put in place. Sadly the Welsh said "I'm out of the office at present. Please forward anything for translation".

    That was a good one:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7702913.stm
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    I would say the U.S.is in a strong position against Germany in isolation. Germany has a massive trade balance, mostly in automotive products, which Trump wants to indigenise. Less so if the EU sticks together. EU trade represents too much of American exports. somewhat similar to our position versus the EU, but less extreme. This is probably why Trump wants to pick off individual countries and is a good reason for countries to stay members of the EU.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    murali_s said:

    Welcome to the World of Trump where black is white and white is black.

    I know this is a right-wing blog with quite a few nutters but did/does anyone actually support Trump here?
    Neither candidate deserved to win.
  • Happy birthday Malc

    Seconded, "Glam Colm" :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    NewsTaker said:

    EU GDP PPP is bigger than USA (even without the UK) so why can the EU countries not pay for an effective military? They just need to start meeting the NATO 2% minimum. Germany being the single biggest culprit in $, barely paying half its share.
    It's not just money. It's being willing to kill your enemies, and to take casualties. Civilised governments prefer to pay people to litigate against their own soldiers.
  • DavidL said:

    Wow. I am leader of the free world? No wonder we have so many problems.
    To be fair I think there would be some relief in some quarters if you were
  • murali_s said:

    Welcome to the World of Trump where black is white and white is black.

    I know this is a right-wing blog with quite a few nutters but did/does anyone actually support Trump here?
    I voted Labour at GE2015 :)

    BTW feel free to start your own left-wing blog.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,395

    xkcd begs to differ.
    It's been tested, and balsamic vinegar is the best way to catch flies. In general, with normal vinegar, and normal flies, the honey wins.
  • Sean_F said:

    It's not just money. It's being willing to kill your enemies, and to take casualties. Civilised governments prefer to pay people to litigate against their own soldiers.
    or prefer to pay for their welfare states and 50% levels of unemployed young folk.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    So what are the implications of Hamon?

    Advantage Macron?
  • HYUFD said:

    It was the British people who voted to Leave the EU, the Tory leader at the time wanted us to Remain as did the present PM. The majority of Leave voters wanted control of free movement and if the EU refuse to allow that at all and allow full access to the single market at the same time it will be the EU who have decided to launch a trade war not the UK. Of course more UK exports go to the U.S. than any individual EU nation and more to the rest of the world than the EU

    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    viewcode said:

    They think the UK leaving the EU is an act of self-harm.
    Why do you think that's an insult?

    And you don't think the idea has imprisoned, shackled and enslaved Scotland is not insulting? The idea that we have treated them unfairly, or won't give them their freedom?
  • We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

    Both sides lied - again why do you think we will lose our EU export market and why not widen our markets worldwide
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Sean_F said:

    Neither candidate deserved to win.
    That was the whole problem, wasn't it? Donald Trump is a mind-bendingly unappealing candidate - old, incompetent, rich, mired in dubious business dealings, had done nothing in politics, a menace to women, thin skinned and aggressive and oozing entitlement from every pore. However, you then remember that his opponent was also old, incompetent, rich, mired in dubious business dealings, had spent years in politics but done nothing, is married to the only President ever to be put on criminal trial while in office due to his appalling behaviour towards young women, thin skinned and aggressive and oozing entitlement from every pore. Just to make two obvious comparisons, Hilary seized on the birther idea in 2008 and threatened to use nuclear weapons against Iran, and Trump seized on the birther narrative...hopefully he will draw back from the second one although with Trump you can never tell. Heck, they even used to be quite good friends at one time.

    I didn't want Trump to be president, but I cannot get worked up over the thought that Hilary lost. Had it been Bayh or even Sanders in place of Clinton, I might have reacted differently (I've never rated Biden either, who is a gaffe prone fool). But bluntly I think the two candidates were very similar and were both awful. The tragedy was that one had to become president.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Being born within a turbine-blade's throw of Rolls Royce in Derby, we were always told that story, except with jet engines. The story is they fire a chicken into the engine to see how well it copes with bird strikes. Except someone once used a frozen one ...

    The first part is at least true:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSafRuLB0c0

    The chicken gun is, of course, a great British invention:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_gun
    I can confirm that engine tests involve firing objects into the engine to see what damage occurs. They do not use frozen birds though :-)

    One thing they are looking at is for will the damage result in a contained failure.

    Uncontained failures are messy and of course more hazardous.

    Talking of "bird strikes" I saw one involving a condor once. it made quite a mess.

    I have seen pics of strikes (on ground obviously) by various animals including a Kangaroo.

    A large animal getting hit by a plane at speed makes a hell of a mess.

    Sad to say it is not unknown for a human to be ingested into a jet engine.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

    Citation for who told you leaving would be painless, please.
  • The proposed US ambassador to the EU said on Andrew Neil this morning that Trump blames Germany for sucking all the wealth away from the southern nation states and that he is against large blocks and will only deal with Nation States. Apparently he has not spoken to Merkel yet and if he confirms his views, as is likely, it will sew the seed of dissent against Merkel and Germany.

    Things are not going to get any easier for the EU

    Thing is I just don't get this. I bow to no one in my opposition to the EU but I really don't see how Trump's views are going to make a blind bit of difference. There is no trade deal.in place now between the US and the EU. TTIP was dead long before Trump got anywhere near power and there is no prospect of anything replacing it in the timescale that Trp is likely to have any effect over. And yet lots of trade is going on between the US and EU and will continue to do so.

    The bottom line is that the EU are sure as he'll not going to change some of their fundemental rules about how they negotiate trade deals just to.pander to Trump so his claims about doing deals with separate states are just another example of his disconnect from reality .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I think it's because reasonable centre/centre left people get attacked by the far right.
    of course center left people never attack anyone - oh no.......

    Even if they did their cause is just so it doesn't count.

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    xkcd begs to differ.

    LOL. Balsamic is about as sweet as it comes in the vinegar department.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    rcs1000 said:

    It's been tested, and balsamic vinegar is the best way to catch flies. In general, with normal vinegar, and normal flies, the honey wins.
    Balsamic vinegar? An EXPENSIVE way of catching flies. Does it have to be the pure grape must DOP stuff or will the Lidl substitutel work too?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Neither candidate deserved to win.
    And Gary Johnson is the worst politician of all time.

    What's Aleppo? FFS.

    All he needed to do was come across as amenable and coherent and he'd have got himself into the debates. Trump vs Clinton was a perfect opportunity handed to him on a plate... he dropped the plate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    ydoethur said:

    That was the whole problem, wasn't it? Donald Trump is a mind-bendingly unappealing candidate - old, incompetent, rich, mired in dubious business dealings, had done nothing in politics, a menace to women, thin skinned and aggressive and oozing entitlement from every pore. However, you then remember that his opponent was also old, incompetent, rich, mired in dubious business dealings, had spent years in politics but done nothing, is married to the only President ever to be put on criminal trial while in office due to his appalling behaviour towards young women, thin skinned and aggressive and oozing entitlement from every pore. Just to make two obvious comparisons, Hilary seized on the birther idea in 2008 and threatened to use nuclear weapons against Iran, and Trump seized on the birther narrative...hopefully he will draw back from the second one although with Trump you can never tell. Heck, they even used to be quite good friends at one time.

    I didn't want Trump to be president, but I cannot get worked up over the thought that Hilary lost. Had it been Bayh or even Sanders in place of Clinton, I might have reacted differently (I've never rated Biden either, who is a gaffe prone fool). But bluntly I think the two candidates were very similar and were both awful. The tragedy was that one had to become president.
    It's not just the candidates, it's the parties. The Republicans and Democrats are both very unappealing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    edited January 2017



    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

    Hannan and Johnson made that claim. I did not believe them. That is why I voted remain.

    Remain did point out repeatedly that leaving would lead to pain. Unfortunately, being told these things by the likes of Junker, Osborne and Mandelson did not sway the votes of the majority of the electorate, which is why we are leaving.

    Whether they did not believe them, thought it was a price worth paying to get rid of the EU or some combination of both I have no idea and insufficient data to speculate with.
  • Thing is I just don't get this. I bow to no one in my opposition to the EU but I really don't see how Trump's views are going to make a blind bit of difference. There is no trade deal.in place now between the US and the EU. TTIP was dead long before Trump got anywhere near power and there is no prospect of anything replacing it in the timescale that Trp is likely to have any effect over. And yet lots of trade is going on between the US and EU and will continue to do so.

    The bottom line is that the EU are sure as he'll not going to change some of their fundemental rules about how they negotiate trade deals just to.pander to Trump so his claims about doing deals with separate states are just another example of his disconnect from reality .
    Surely his disconnect from reality is the danger
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    How did Justin Huggler get a job at the Torygraph? He's their man on the spot in Koblenz, reporting on the international conference of the populist right that was addressed by Le Pen, Petry, and Wilders.

    For the novel he hacked out to cash in on the gig he got with the invaders in Iraq he even got a promotional quote from Robert Fisk, praising how good he was at revealing the "cynicism and cowardice of journalists". But in his article on the Koblenz gathering he ludicrously writes

    "Rival demonstrators put up statues of Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin for some reason."

    If he was so ignorant and lazy that he couldn't work the reason out, couldn't he have walked up to them and asked them? Or if he was too posh to do that, or if he doesn't know German, or if he only learnt about the statues from watching the TV or reading another newspaper, couldn't he have asked a hotel maid, or a bartender, or a lift attendant? And if he couldn't be bothered, why does he think that anyone gives a toss that some twerp at what used to be considered a readable paper doesn't understand an event that happened outside a meeting he was sent hundreds of miles to cover, an event that any idiot could explain to him if asked?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    edited January 2017
    MTimT said:


    Citation for who told you leaving would be painless, please.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3546857/Pro-EU-lobby-treating-voters-like-children--Michael-Gove.html

    Setting out his plan at Vote Leave's headquarters in London, Mr Gove said: "The core of our new arrangement with the EU is clear.

    "There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU.

    "After we vote to leave we will remain in this zone."

    It was not credible to suggest that Britain - alongside Belarus - would be kept out of the zone.

    "Agreeing to maintain this continental free trade zone is the simple course and emphatically in everyone's interests."

    He added: "The idea that the German government would damage its car manufacturers - and impoverish workers in those factories - to make a political point about Britain's choices; or the French government would ignore its farmers - and damage their welfare - to strike a pose; or the Italian government would undermine its struggling industries just to please Brussels... well, that is ridiculous."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Sean_F said:

    It's not just the candidates, it's the parties. The Republicans and Democrats are both very unappealing.
    I find it telling that the things the Republican Party are most excited about doing now that Trump is President are slashing taxes for the most wealthy and a repeal of Obamacare, and spending on national infrastructure and housing the least.

    The Democrats stand for affirmative action, migrant amnesties, unionised labour, identity politics writ-large, political correctness, and all but a total disdain of middle America.

    What a choice.
  • MTimT said:

    Citation for who told you leaving would be painless, please.

    Where's the pain?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    NewsTaker said:

    EU GDP PPP is bigger than USA (even without the UK) so why can the EU countries not pay for an effective military? They just need to start meeting the NATO 2% minimum. Germany being the single biggest culprit in $, barely paying half its share.
    "couldn't" should have been "wouldn't". Apologies
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Sean_F said:

    It's not just money. It's being willing to kill your enemies, and to take casualties. Civilised governments prefer to pay people to litigate against their own soldiers.
    Easy for me to say, I have never yet to fight, and likely I never will, but that's the sort of thing that helped bring down the Roman Empire.

    Sooner or later your enemies call your bluff.
  • MTimT said:


    LOL. Balsamic is about as sweet as it comes in the vinegar department.
    True. It's still vinegar though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    I find it telling that the things the Republican Party are most excited about doing now that Trump is President are slashing taxes for the most wealthy and a repeal of Obamacare, and spending on national infrastructure and housing the least.

    The Democrats stand for affirmative action, migrant amnesties, unionised labour, identity politics writ-large, political correctness, and all but a total disdain of middle America.

    What a choice.
    A choice between sticking your head in a bucket of shit (Republicans) or a bucket of acid (Democrats)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    Trident enters the Scottish debate again.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/823265996781875200
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I voted Labour at GE2015 :)

    BTW feel free to start your own left-wing blog.
    that surely makes you an anarchist?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited January 2017
    Unchallenged, he seems minded to threaten many of the hardest-won achievements of recent British foreign policy: welcoming the disintegration of the EU (Steve Bannon, his adviser, reportedly wants to build closer links with continental parties promoting that), weakening NATO, applauding Mr Putin’s adventurism, ripping up climate-change accords and the nuclear deal with Iran. Britain has shed blood and treasure in pursuit of these goals. Its exports to the rest of the EU are worth £171bn, compared with the £45bn value of those to America. To cheer on or turn a blind eye to such vandalism in the spirit of continental one-upmanship would be utterly short-sighted, doing diplomatic and economic damage that would far outlast the four- or eight-year span of Mr Trump’s presidency. Let Britain not become Europe’s answer to Chris Christie.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2017/01/special-relationship?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thespecialrelationshipbritainshouldseekdonaldtrumpsrespectnothisaffection
  • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3546857/Pro-EU-lobby-treating-voters-like-children--Michael-Gove.html

    Setting out his plan at Vote Leave's headquarters in London, Mr Gove said: "The core of our new arrangement with the EU is clear.

    "There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU.

    "After we vote to leave we will remain in this zone."

    It was not credible to suggest that Britain - alongside Belarus - would be kept out of the zone.

    "Agreeing to maintain this continental free trade zone is the simple course and emphatically in everyone's interests."

    He added: "The idea that the German government would damage its car manufacturers - and impoverish workers in those factories - to make a political point about Britain's choices; or the French government would ignore its farmers - and damage their welfare - to strike a pose; or the Italian government would undermine its struggling industries just to please Brussels... well, that is ridiculous."
    One of the things I find most irritating is the elision between access to the single market and membership of the same. It's a bit like the confusion between deficit and debt back in the halcyon days when we worried about such things.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

    shouldn't that be a kilometre?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Surely utilities should make all decisions for economic reasons? Banning the use of one type - irrespective of cost - is not going to make bills cheaper.
    It is dumb but if course the main reason is that Wyoming is a massive coal producer. These guys are putting Trumpism into practice early.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    edited January 2017
    So another polling surprise in France. Montebourg fell well short of expectations. I guess he ended up being the squeezed middle, Hamon outflanked him on the left, Valls on the right. It's probably near certain that Hamon wins the nomination considering he will get the vast majority of transfers from Montebourg, which means the trailing 3rd place candidate in both primary contests ended coming through and winning!

    Good for Macron, bad for Melenchon. I think a Le Pen v Macron round 2 is getting more likely. The two of them will both be turning their fire very heavily on Fillon now, he will struggle to fight both flanks at once.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    One of the things I find most irritating is the elision between access to the single market and membership of the same. It's a bit like the confusion between deficit and debt back in the halcyon days when we worried about such things.
    Do you believe the language in Vote Leave's position statement is intended to mislead and which 'zone' do you think they're referring to? They speak about remaining in a 'free trade zone' which clearly goes beyond mere 'access to' the single market.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    So another polling surprise in France. Montebourg fell well short of expectations. I guess he ended up being the squeezed middle, Hamon outflanked him on the left, Valls on the right. It's probably near certain that Hamon wins the nomination considering he will get the vast majority of transfers from Montebourg, which means the trailing 3rd place candidate in both primary contests ended coming through and winning!

    Good for Macron, bad for Melenchon. I think a Le Pen v Macron round 2 is getting more likely. The two of them will both be turning their fire very heavily on Fillon now, he will struggle to fight both flanks at once.

    The best result for Macron would have been Montebourg but Hamon would be better for him than Valls. Regardless of who is P.S. nominee though all the polls now show a Le Pen v Fillon run off
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.

    The Leave vote won and on a platform of controlling free movement which all the polls show Leave voters put above full single market access on a forced choice. 56% of UK exports now go outside the EU
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited January 2017

    Where's the pain?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html

    Walking away from the EU, not negotiating a new agreement with the EU or putting up any new trade barriers will bring about a 4% gain in GDP, consumer price fall of 8% and an expansion of the UK’s competitive services sector to take the place of diminishing manufacturing output.

    (Economists for Brexit - Minford, Bootle etc)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056
    AfD still a clear third and more than double their 2013 total
  • Do you believe the language in Vote Leave's position statement is intended to mislead and which 'zone' do you think they're referring to? They speak about remaining in a 'free trade zone' which clearly goes beyond mere 'access to' the single market.
    I don't know if it is intended to misslead, but I think it is at best ambiguous. It's the 'access to' phrase that I get irritated by as it is difficult to forsee circumstances under which we would not have access.

    Reading it more carefully you are right: the zone they are refering to is the free trade zone itself, not the group of contries with access to it.



  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    The best result for Macron would have been Montebourg but Hamon would be better for him than Valls. Regardless of who is P.S. nominee though all the polls now show a Le Pen v Fillon run off
    Or 3rd place coming through again :-)

    I am on Hamon at 250 thanks to Chris in Paris.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Where's the pain?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html

    That the pain is not mentioned is not the same as saying that there will be no pain. Again, where's the citation? Same applies to Mr Glenn's response.
  • that surely makes you an anarchist?
    murali thinks all Brexiteers are "right wing".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    MTimT said:

    That the pain is not mentioned is not the same as saying that there will be no pain. Again, where's the citation? Same applies to Mr Glenn's response.
    Gove said 'it would be ridiculous' for the UK not to be allowed to remain in a 'free trade zone'. I think that's pretty close to saying that a painless transition will be easy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    I don't understand the big hoo-har over this Trident thing? What relevence does a recent missile test problem have in a debate for/against a replacement of Trident?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    The UK government should be wary of being led up the garden path by Trump. He could just as easily turn his back, or use the US-UK trade talks as a pawn in discussions with a more important counterparty.
  • HYUFD said:

    The Leave vote won and on a platform of controlling free movement which all the polls show Leave voters put above full single market access on a forced choice. 56% of UK exports now go outside the EU

    So what? Nearly half of all our exports go to somewhere you say we are about to have a trade war with. The British people were never at any stage told about that.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's remarkable that having had two votes go against them, certain sections of the community now consider that we're living in an age of totalitarianism. The contempt for ordinary people is breathtaking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    Or 3rd place coming through again :-)

    I am on Hamon at 250 thanks to Chris in Paris.
    Yes, Hamon looks to have done a Fillon
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    So another polling surprise in France. Montebourg fell well short of expectations. I guess he ended up being the squeezed middle, Hamon outflanked him on the left, Valls on the right. It's probably near certain that Hamon wins the nomination considering he will get the vast majority of transfers from Montebourg, which means the trailing 3rd place candidate in both primary contests ended coming through and winning!

    Good for Macron, bad for Melenchon. I think a Le Pen v Macron round 2 is getting more likely. The two of them will both be turning their fire very heavily on Fillon now, he will struggle to fight both flanks at once.

    If that happens, a huge shout out should go to David Herdson for tipping Hamon at north of 120/1.

    I should make a nice little bit off that as a trading bet.

    I think a Le Pen v. Macron fight will be closer than Le Pen v. Fillion, so, if that starts to look likely, I won't be laying Le Pen much more at current odds, because I think they'll shorten.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Unchallenged, he seems minded to threaten many of the hardest-won achievements of recent British foreign policy: welcoming the disintegration of the EU (Steve Bannon, his adviser, reportedly wants to build closer links with continental parties promoting that), weakening NATO, applauding Mr Putin’s adventurism, ripping up climate-change accords and the nuclear deal with Iran. Britain has shed blood and treasure in pursuit of these goals. Its exports to the rest of the EU are worth £171bn, compared with the £45bn value of those to America. To cheer on or turn a blind eye to such vandalism in the spirit of continental one-upmanship would be utterly short-sighted, doing diplomatic and economic damage that would far outlast the four- or eight-year span of Mr Trump’s presidency. Let Britain not become Europe’s answer to Chris Christie.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2017/01/special-relationship?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thespecialrelationshipbritainshouldseekdonaldtrumpsrespectnothisaffection

    There is no question of Britain cheering it on. Did the Economist not hear Theresa May's speech?

    We want a trade deal, and also an opportunity to use our influence to moderate Trump and his team, forlorn though that may ultimately turn out to be.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017

    So what? Nearly half of all our exports go to somewhere you say we are about to have a trade war with. The British people were never at any stage told about that.

    It's not just pull up the drawbridge - it's load the cannon, too.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    murali thinks all Brexiteers are "right wing".
    he must be a Londoner
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    A bill to take the US out of the United Nations has been introduced to Congress by a former member of Trump's transition team...

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/193/all-info
  • I don't understand the big hoo-har over this Trident thing? What relevence does a recent missile test problem have in a debate for/against a replacement of Trident?

    It doesn't.

    But the media, being comprised of utter thickos, think that they're onto something HUGE. I mean, really HUGE.

    (lol)
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited January 2017

    We were told that leaving the EU would be painless. No-one said anything about a trade war. Saying that we need to follow the rules to enjoy the benefits of club membership is not a declaration of war, it is a statement of the bleeding obvious. The EU cannot be blamed if Tory Leavers lied to the British people. And, as you know, the EU is our single biggest export market, by a country mile.



    The Leave vote won and on a platform of controlling free movement which all the polls show Leave voters put above full single market access on a forced choice. 56% of UK exports now go outside the EU



    SO said


    So what? Nearly half of all our exports go to somewhere you say we are about to have a trade war with. The British people were never at any stage told about that.



    You are still in denial about the nature of the internal market. It's protectionist
  • The UK government should be wary of being led up the garden path by Trump. He could just as easily turn his back, or use the US-UK trade talks as a pawn in discussions with a more important counterparty.

    I am sure that HMG will be aware of the pros and cons of our relationship with Trump and indeed I do not consider this meeting later in this week with Trump by Theresa May as a walk in the park.

    Sky reporting a state visit to UK for Trump later this year with an accompanied visit to the war rooms with Boris

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    Gove said 'it would be ridiculous' for the UK not to be allowed to remain in a 'free trade zone'. I think that's pretty close to saying that a painless transition will be easy.

    It is still not Surbiton's claim to have been told it would be painless.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    There is no question of Britain cheering it on. Did the Economist not hear Theresa May's speech?

    We want a trade deal, and also an opportunity to use our influence to moderate Trump and his team, forlorn though that may ultimately turn out to be.
    If even his own party cannot influence Trump, what chance of foreigners doing so?
  • A bill to take the US out of the United Nations has been introduced to Congress by a former member of Trump's transition team...

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/193/all-info

    And NATO.
  • A bill to take the US out of the United Nations has been introduced to Congress by a former member of Trump's transition team...

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/193/all-info

    USexit?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    MTimT said:

    It is still not Surbiton's claim to have been told it would be painless.
    https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/719185720968089600

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6266/why_germany_will_ensure_a_painless_brexit

    "Why Germany will ensure a painless Brexit"
  • @ReggieCidev- no, I am in denial about any notion that prior to the referendum voters were told that Brexit would entail a trade war with the EU. HYUFD seems to be implying that this was and is the natural consequence of our vote to Leave. I beg to differ.

    Yes, the single market is protectionist. Just like all other markets.
  • If even his own party cannot influence Trump, what chance of foreigners doing so?
    So we just accept what he says - this will be a big test for Theresa May and it is not just the UK who must hope she can have some influence but the EU as well
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ TimB Wishing your were an Atlanta fan now, rather than a 'Boy?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Being born within a turbine-blade's throw of Rolls Royce in Derby, we were always told that story, except with jet engines. The story is they fire a chicken into the engine to see how well it copes with bird strikes. Except someone once used a frozen one ...

    The first part is at least true:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSafRuLB0c0

    The chicken gun is, of course, a great British invention:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_gun
    It was the chicken ingestion test that definitively bankrupted rolls Royce in 1971 and almost did the same to their customer Lockheed. The RB211 engine had innovative carbon fibre fan blades, which shattered on contact with the chicken.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_RB211
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    John_M said:

    It's remarkable that having had two votes go against them, certain sections of the community now consider that we're living in an age of totalitarianism. The contempt for ordinary people is breathtaking.

    This from Newsnight shows there is nothing new under the sun, and written by none other than Plato and Socrates:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/822144209687875585
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/719185720968089600

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6266/why_germany_will_ensure_a_painless_brexit

    "Why Germany will ensure a painless Brexit"
    So, one news article on an obscure website claims that Germany will make it painless and Surbiton takes that to mean he has been promised it will be painless? Pathetic!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    edited January 2017
    MTimT said:

    So, one news article on an obscure website claims that Germany will make it painless and Surbiton takes that to mean he has been promised it will be painless? Pathetic!
    You were pedantic enough to insist on that precise word. This is clear enough though:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14571296.Boris_Johnson__EU_tariffs_would_be__insane__if_UK_backs_Brexit/

    Boris Johnson drew cheers from the crowd, saying: "I must say that I think that it was extraordinary to hear that we would have tariffs imposed on us because everybody knows that this country receives about a fifth of Germany's entire car manufacturing output - 820,000 vehicles a year.

    "Do you seriously suppose that they are going to be so insane as to allow tariffs to be imposed between Britain and Germany?"
  • USexit?
    Yanxit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    If that happens, a huge shout out should go to David Herdson for tipping Hamon at north of 120/1.

    I should make a nice little bit off that as a trading bet.

    I think a Le Pen v. Macron fight will be closer than Le Pen v. Fillion, so, if that starts to look likely, I won't be laying Le Pen much more at current odds, because I think they'll shorten.
    Latest polling has Fillon v Le Pen slightly tighter than Macron v Le Pen though not much in it
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    You were pedantic enough to insist on that precise word. This is clear enough though:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14571296.Boris_Johnson__EU_tariffs_would_be__insane__if_UK_backs_Brexit/

    Boris Johnson drew cheers from the crowd, saying: "I must say that I think that it was extraordinary to hear that we would have tariffs imposed on us because everybody knows that this country receives about a fifth of Germany's entire car manufacturing output - 820,000 vehicles a year.

    "Do you seriously suppose that they are going to be so insane as to allow tariffs to be imposed between Britain and Germany?"
    It still does not say it will be painless. You have to have been a half-wit to have been convinced by what was actually said that we were being told it would be painless. You had one side claiming immediate financial armageddon (now denied, or postponed) and the other countering those ridiculous claims, with some ridiculous arguments of their own. But no-one said it would be painless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,056

    So what? Nearly half of all our exports go to somewhere you say we are about to have a trade war with. The British people were never at any stage told about that.

    The majority of British people who voted Leave did so to control free movement if the EU refuses to compromise all the polls show a majority of Leave voters put controlling free movement first even if the EU force a trade war
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    LOL Schauble now saying the UK should seek a Swiss-style deal:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-latest-eu-germany-wolfgang-schaeuble-finance-minister-hard-brexit-immigration-switzerland-a7540506.html

    Summary:

    EU: You cannot have the Single Market without Freedom of Movement
    UK: Understood, so we won't seek the Single Market
    EU: You misunderstand. You must have a deal which includes Freedom of Movement.

    Coming to a theatre near you soon:

    UK: Read my lips.
  • MTimT said:

    It still does not say it will be painless. You have to have been a half-wit to have been convinced by what was actually said that we were being told it would be painless. You had one side claiming immediate financial armageddon (now denied, or postponed) and the other countering those ridiculous claims, with some ridiculous arguments of their own. But no-one said it would be painless.
    Would you say the phrase 'quick and easy' is a synonym for 'painless'?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    This from Newsnight shows there is nothing new under the sun, and written by none other than Plato and Socrates:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/822144209687875585
    More fool the people who preceded him for not realising where they were
  • Would you say the phrase 'quick and easy' is a synonym for 'painless'?
    Depends which STI you contract? :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    Would you say the phrase 'quick and easy' is a synonym for 'painless'?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/15051602.pdf

    Andrea Leadsom - "It will be as easy as we want it to be." "Totally, absolutely" a fast and easy negotiation.
  • Would you say the phrase 'quick and easy' is a synonym for 'painless'?
    After a few hospital stays I can think of serveral things that were quick and easy but by no means painless. You probably don't want details...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    More fool the people who preceded him for not realising where they were
    When Trump recited "the Snake" he appeared to be talking about migrants; but it seems to me that he was hiding in plain sight. The Snake that he refers to is himself, in the White House.

    https://youtu.be/tKJlhn_KQL0
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    MTimT said:


    UK: Read my lips.

    We know how that ended for Bush Sr.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Would you say the phrase 'quick and easy' is a synonym for 'painless'?
    No. The clear overall sense of the debate was one side shouting Armageddon and the other side either ignoring the pain side or, if pressed, saying that there would be short-term pain that would be more than offset in the longer-term.

    Surbiton is trying to create revisionist history, but it is still a crock of shit, even if Mr Glenn and you try to say it ain't so.

    It is quick and easy to perform certain types of surgery. They are not usually painless.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/15051602.pdf

    Andrea Leadsom - "It will be as easy as we want it to be." "Totally, absolutely" a fast and easy negotiation.

    Delivering the A50 notification with a note saying we would not be negotiating but instead immediately falling back on WTO rules would indeed be quick and easy. So to that extent, Leadsom was entirely right.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    How viable would California be as an independent country?

    Could Trump stop it?

    Would Trump stop it?

    Edit: lol someone's already polled it post election;

    https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/survey_usa_111616.pdf

    23% support
    57% oppose
  • MTimT said:

    No. The clear overall sense of the debate was one side shouting Armageddon and the other side either ignoring the pain side or, if pressed, saying that there would be short-term pain that would be more than offset in the longer-term.

    Surbiton is trying to create revisionist history, but it is still a crock of shit, even if Mr Glenn and you try to say it ain't so.

    It is quick and easy to perform certain types of surgery. They are not usually painless.
    I understand.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    Pong said:

    How viable would California be as an independent country?

    Could Trump stop it?

    Would Trump stop it?

    The Calexit campaign has offices in Moscow and has been seeking funding in Russia. It might be a potential source of disagreement between Trump and Putin.
  • Pong said:

    How viable would California be as an independent country?

    Could Trump stop it?

    Would Trump stop it?

    1) California has some very well documented budget deficit issues, and they are also one major earthquake away from an unsustainable budget

    2) Yes, there's a belief that no state can secede from the United States

    3) No, 50 odd electoral college votes lost for the Democrats would cheer up the GOP no end.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    1) California has some very well documented budget deficit issues, and they are also one major earthquake away from an unsustainable budget

    2) Yes, there's a belief that no state can secede from the United States

    3) No, 50 odd electoral college votes lost for the Democrats would cheer up the GOP no end.
    Sounds like Scotland.
  • tlg86 said:

    Sounds like Scotland.
    Except with less sun
This discussion has been closed.