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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Mrs May outdistancing Mrs Thatcher’s tenure as Prim

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    You do wonder what damage Trump is doing to the MSM with his disdain and active efforts to destabilise it. However, a large part of the MSM have reported their own agenda's for years with little effort to maintain balance and maybe this is pay back.

    He showed the press the envelope containing the letter from Obama left on his desk in the oval office, saying what a lovely letter it is, but then said but you will not see it.

    It is a worry as to who you can trust these days post the US Presidential election
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    I hope some of you jumped on the Hamon bandwagon when he was still at 250 on Betfair. I had him at 750.

    It seems impossible for him to lose next Sunday but the PS is in a very bad shape.

    All combined, the 7 candidates of the left got less votes than Fillon alone on the first round of the right wing primary.

    And Hamon, the clear winner today, got much less votes than Sarkozy who finished a distant third...
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    Hamon described tonight his models of success for the left: Sanders, Corbyn, Podemos !

    He and Corbyn share the same definition of success: total party control by the left-wing faction.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,796
    MTimT said:




    No. The clear overall sense of the debate was one side shouting Armageddon and the other side either ignoring the pain side or, if pressed, saying that there would be short-term pain that would be more than offset in the longer-term.

    Surbiton is trying to create revisionist history, but it is still a crock of shit, even if Mr Glenn and you try to say it ain't so.

    It is quick and easy to perform certain types of surgery. They are not usually painless.

    FWIW, I think you are over literal here. If someone says "sunlit uplands" that implies an absence of pain, even if they don't use the word itself. The same impression is implied if you retort "project fear" on every specific mention of a potential pain. This is political campaign, not a legal text or s compliance document. The Leave campaign intended their targets to think there would be no pain, just as the Remain campaign intended their targets to think there would an awful lot of pain
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,070
    @HYUFD:

    How are you feeling about our Socialist + 3 vs Macron bet?
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    After the second round of the primary and Hamon's expected victory, around 100 socialist MPs and senators (from the centrist wing) should join Macron.

    I'm sure it's good for them if they want to keem their constituencies in June, but I think it will be a problem for Macron: being identified as Hollande's candidate would kill his chances.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    Hamon described tonight his models of success for the left: Sanders, Corbyn, Podemos !

    He and Corbyn share the same definition of success: total party control by the left-wing faction.

    Well done on getting on Hamon, I suggest you don't lay that off at a suitable point!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,796
    FF43 said:

    MTimT said:




    No. The clear overall sense of the debate was one side shouting Armageddon and the other side either ignoring the pain side or, if pressed, saying that there would be short-term pain that would be more than offset in the longer-term.

    Surbiton is trying to create revisionist history, but it is still a crock of shit, even if Mr Glenn and you try to say it ain't so.

    It is quick and easy to perform certain types of surgery. They are not usually painless.

    FWIW, I think you are over literal here. If someone says "sunlit uplands" that implies an absence of pain, even if they don't use the word itself. The same impression is implied if you retort "project fear" on every specific mention of a potential pain. This is political campaign, not a legal text or s compliance document. The Leave campaign intended their targets to think there would be no pain, just as the Remain campaign intended their targets to think there would an awful lot of pain
    More on this. While Leave campaigners might privately accept there could be some short term pain, with the suggestion that long term benefits outweigh it, it doesn't do you any good to argue in those terms. As far as I recall they didn't do so. The problem is you get challenged, how much pain? How much gain? KISS. Don't accept the possibility of pain.
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    Scott_P said:
    Surprised he didn't then hire some ladies to do some unspeakable things to it...
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    The last general election polling with Hamon as candidate was Ipsos on Friday

    Le Pen 27 Fillon 26 Macron 20 Mélenchon 13 Hamon 8 all others 5.5


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    For all the negative coverage from Sky and BBC all day today on Trident only the Guardian have it on the front page. Even the Times which broke the story doesn't mention it.

    Another example of the MSM making a mountain out of a mole hill
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    The first 10 minutes of Sky's press review is the reviewers moaning about the way Trump is causing them confusion
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    rcs1000 said:

    @HYUFD:

    How are you feeling about our Socialist + 3 vs Macron bet?

    I can't remember what it was but it was basically based on Valls being nominee, if he isn't he isn't but Le Pen still looks set to win round 1 which was also part of the bet
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Pong said:

    How viable would California be as an independent country?

    Could Trump stop it?

    Would Trump stop it?

    Edit: lol someone's already polled it post election;

    https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/survey_usa_111616.pdf

    23% support
    57% oppose

    An independent California would be the sixth biggest economy in the world so very viable
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    MTimT said:

    LOL Schauble now saying the UK should seek a Swiss-style deal:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-latest-eu-germany-wolfgang-schaeuble-finance-minister-hard-brexit-immigration-switzerland-a7540506.html

    Summary:

    EU: You cannot have the Single Market without Freedom of Movement
    UK: Understood, so we won't seek the Single Market
    EU: You misunderstand. You must have a deal which includes Freedom of Movement.

    Coming to a theatre near you soon:

    UK: Read my lips.

    Switzerland is not in the Single Market but has access through bilateral trade deals
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    NEW THREAD

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    £35 of free money on Betfair in my opinion: back Hamon to win the second round of the French socialidst primary. He's ahead on 35-31, and the thitrd placed candidate with 18 has endorsed him, and he has the memotum. He's still 1.16 on Betfair (I've just snaffled what there was at 1.19).
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    @Pulpstar and others

    I have decided to level my book - effectively making it a simple lay of Le Pen, at basically 0 value (+250, -910)

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    £35 of free money on Betfair in my opinion: back Hamon to win the second round of the French socialidst primary. He's ahead on 35-31, and the thitrd placed candidate with 18 has endorsed him, and he has the memotum. He's still 1.16 on Betfair (I've just snaffled what there was at 1.19).

    Valls managed what Juppé didn't, we won plenty of areas.

    This one ain't over, not sure I'd lay 7/1 or more. Though I have written off my £10 on Valls.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:



    Gove said 'it would be ridiculous' for the UK not to be allowed to remain in a 'free trade zone'. I think that's pretty close to saying that a painless transition will be easy.

    It is still not Surbiton's claim to have been told it would be painless.
    https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/719185720968089600

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6266/why_germany_will_ensure_a_painless_brexit

    "Why Germany will ensure a painless Brexit"
    So, one news article on an obscure website claims that Germany will make it painless and Surbiton takes that to mean he has been promised it will be painless? Pathetic!
    Me ? When ? I work with Germans. It will never be painless. They will not go out to be painful but they are sticklers for rules.
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