politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Mrs May outdistancing Mrs Thatcher’s tenure as Prim

Second like Hillary.

From the last thread :

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We discussed this a few weeks ago, but there's an update, Cowley Tech further confirms its status as a dump

Oxford University faces a landmark trial over a claim for $1.6 million compensation from a student who alleges “boring” and “appallingly bad” tuition cost him a first-class degree and robbed him of the high-flying legal career he coveted.

The university had applied to the High Court to strike out the claim for damages by Faiz Siddiqui, who studied modern history at Brasenose College more than 16 years ago, arguing it was “hopelessly bad” and “time barred”.

However, in an 18-page judgment, Mr Justice Kerr refused to do so and instead ruled that Oxford “has a case to answer” and that the arguments should be heard in a trial “as soon as possible”.

To be honest if I was Hizzoner Kerr, I'd have thrown the case out saying Siddiqui should have been aware that it is common knowledge for centuries that Oxford is hopelessly bad.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/oxford-university-ordered-to-face-trial-over-bad-teaching/news-story/16608fda7aeafb11c902dd15f38166ee

What has a history dehree got to do with a legal career anyway?

If he had gone to Fenland Poly, he could have become a KGB agent. Think of the career advantages...

Agree she will probably be there until 2024 and then hand over, maybe to Hammond. So she will be there longer than Major, Brown and Cameron but not as long as Thatcher and Blair

Rubbish bet, but an interesting question.
Given her age and potential health problems, I would guess that her stepping down before the 2025 election (assuming, of course, that a snap election in the next twelve months doesn't muck up the electoral timeframe) is the most likely outcome.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Not a market I like. The long odds take a damned long time to collect, and the odds aren't worth it. The short odds are likelier but could take a decade to come in and the return is very low.

Better to take the (no longer available) 26 for Bottas to win the title this year (each way).

Malmesbury said:

From the last thread :

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We discussed this a few weeks ago, but there's an update, Cowley Tech further confirms its status as a dump

Oxford University faces a landmark trial over a claim for $1.6 million compensation from a student who alleges “boring” and “appallingly bad” tuition cost him a first-class degree and robbed him of the high-flying legal career he coveted.

The university had applied to the High Court to strike out the claim for damages by Faiz Siddiqui, who studied modern history at Brasenose College more than 16 years ago, arguing it was “hopelessly bad” and “time barred”.

However, in an 18-page judgment, Mr Justice Kerr refused to do so and instead ruled that Oxford “has a case to answer” and that the arguments should be heard in a trial “as soon as possible”.

To be honest if I was Hizzoner Kerr, I'd have thrown the case out saying Siddiqui should have been aware that it is common knowledge for centuries that Oxford is hopelessly bad.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/oxford-university-ordered-to-face-trial-over-bad-teaching/news-story/16608fda7aeafb11c902dd15f38166ee

What has a history dehree got to do with a legal career anyway?

If he had gone to Fenland Poly, he could have become a KGB agent. Think of the career advantages...

Don't forget the Oxford University Russian spy ring that was hushed up.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/kgbs-oxford-spy-recruiter-unmasked/news-story/eab1d3dd134f2528b036dff98da1f4a3

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Agree she will probably be there until 2024 and then hand over, maybe to Hammond. So she will be there longer than Major, Brown and Cameron but not as long as Thatcher and Blair

When was the last time that the successor as Prime Minister was the expected one? Brown?

Eden and Callaghan were not that unexpected and Major only got it after being made Chancellor

CornishBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

Just for @SouthamObserver

@nytpolitics CNN just contradicted you with this picture...looks like more people for Trump than you show? https://t.co/DemnUhiFch

Cheers - much smaller crowds than Obama got.

Why does Trump even care about this? And why on earth does he care to the extent of lying about it? Just bizarre.

See: https://twitter.com/rascouet/status/823035518313267202

I agree with basically this analysis other than I don't think it is about laying down the law now, trump has been playing the lying media angle for 18 months. And what allows him to get away with it is the media lost any sense of balance and have spun every little thing as negatively about him to the extent that they have lied about him, which opens the door for people doubting the media...

it's kind like the daily mail and immigration stories here eg the adults as kids, set off a load of fake news on Twitter about was the daily mail photographing an interpreter (when it was Getty and one of the "child" migrants)...but people were willing to believe Twitter vs mail.

Also this latest outburst has buried the Obama care repel stuff.

Exactly. The media, celebrities, etc, have only themselves to blame.

They don't help themselves when they start saying stuff like blow up the white house. It just plays into Trumps hands.

MarkHopkins said:

First.

- Sean Spicer

Like

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Agree she will probably be there until 2024 and then hand over, maybe to Hammond. So she will be there longer than Major, Brown and Cameron but not as long as Thatcher and Blair

When was the last time that the successor as Prime Minister was the expected one? Brown?

Eden and Callaghan were not that unexpected and Major only got it after being made Chancellor

True on Eden - the anointed successor indeed. Callaghan... yes.

Major was the quiet, dark horse candidate. I got 20-1 on him - it was back when I allowed myself to bet.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Malmesbury said:

From the last thread :

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We discussed this a few weeks ago, but there's an update, Cowley Tech further confirms its status as a dump

Oxford University faces a landmark trial over a claim for $1.6 million compensation from a student who alleges “boring” and “appallingly bad” tuition cost him a first-class degree and robbed him of the high-flying legal career he coveted.

The university had applied to the High Court to strike out the claim for damages by Faiz Siddiqui, who studied modern history at Brasenose College more than 16 years ago, arguing it was “hopelessly bad” and “time barred”.

However, in an 18-page judgment, Mr Justice Kerr refused to do so and instead ruled that Oxford “has a case to answer” and that the arguments should be heard in a trial “as soon as possible”.

To be honest if I was Hizzoner Kerr, I'd have thrown the case out saying Siddiqui should have been aware that it is common knowledge for centuries that Oxford is hopelessly bad.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/oxford-university-ordered-to-face-trial-over-bad-teaching/news-story/16608fda7aeafb11c902dd15f38166ee

What has a history dehree got to do with a legal career anyway?

If he had gone to Fenland Poly, he could have become a KGB agent. Think of the career advantages...

Don't forget the Oxford University Russian spy ring that was hushed up.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/kgbs-oxford-spy-recruiter-unmasked/news-story/eab1d3dd134f2528b036dff98da1f4a3

True - but they were far better spies than the Cambridge lot. :-)

A more gracious Trump.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/823174199036542980

Never thought I'd be retweeting Bill Kristol approvingly; strange times.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/823169825577037826

MarkHopkins said:

CornishBlue said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

Just for @SouthamObserver

@nytpolitics CNN just contradicted you with this picture...looks like more people for Trump than you show? https://t.co/DemnUhiFch

Cheers - much smaller crowds than Obama got.

Why does Trump even care about this? And why on earth does he care to the extent of lying about it? Just bizarre.

See: https://twitter.com/rascouet/status/823035518313267202

I agree with basically this analysis other than I don't think it is about laying down the law now, trump has been playing the lying media angle for 18 months. And what allows him to get away with it is the media lost any sense of balance and have spun every little thing as negatively about him to the extent that they have lied about him, which opens the door for people doubting the media...

it's kind like the daily mail and immigration stories here eg the adults as kids, set off a load of fake news on Twitter about was the daily mail photographing an interpreter (when it was Getty and one of the "child" migrants)...but people were willing to believe Twitter vs mail.

Also this latest outburst has buried the Obama care repel stuff.

Exactly. The media, celebrities, etc, have only themselves to blame.

Every time Trump pretends he's a snowflake and "upset" over something, the reporters fall in glee over it and make fun of him. Meanwhile real scrutiny doesn't happen.

So are you saying this behaviour is a signal that there's something happening he wants to obscure? Seems like a fairly simple heads-up rule to twig for observers.

Good afternoon, everybody.

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

Agree she will probably be there until 2024 and then hand over, maybe to Hammond. So she will be there longer than Major, Brown and Cameron but not as long as Thatcher and Blair

When was the last time that the successor as Prime Minister was the expected one? Brown?

Eden and Callaghan were not that unexpected and Major only got it after being made Chancellor

True on Eden - the anointed successor indeed. Callaghan... yes.

Major was the quiet, dark horse candidate. I got 20-1 on him - it was back when I allowed myself to bet.

Indeed a good bet then but now you would need to bet on someone replacing Hammond as Chancellor, until then Hammond is frontrunner

Theuniondivvie said:

Never thought I'd be retweeting Bill Kristol approvingly; strange times.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/823169825577037826

Well really it's Vaclav Havel you're quoting with approval - which is the only way of quoting him, of course.

williamglenn said:

A more gracious Trump.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/823174199036542980

Gracious? Check.

Tolerant of opposing views? Check.

Reasonably clearly & elegantly expressed? Check

No spelling mistakes? Check.

Written by Trump? Hmm.

ThomasNashe said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Never thought I'd be retweeting Bill Kristol approvingly; strange times.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/823169825577037826

Well really it's Vaclav Havel you're quoting with approval - which is the only way of quoting him, of course.

I'd love to be rt-ing Vaclav but that option is unfortunately unavailable!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, that is the question. Consensus at this early stage is, alas, yes.

Also, it's each way, so Bottas only needs to be top 3.

Each way was excellent value - what are the current odds ?

Probably events, dear girl, events. I have a suspicion we may see an uptick in events in the current environment.

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'd be more interested in the odds on her not seeing the year out.

Shadsy has it 5/2 that Mrs May is replaced as PM in 2017

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/specials/theresa-may-specials/222643274/

That's not the bargain of the century either.

Indeed.

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

KNIFE IN THE HEART OF TSE, PTII
====================
I am not locking money up for over 11 yrs to get 10/1, and 1/25 is too short for the alternative.

That's not a knife in the heart, because I've said both bets are unappealing so no bets for me.

Wasn't it Spooner who wrote a note which at the bottom had a postscript saying "ignore this note"?

Freudian slip of the day?

https://twitter.com/ClaireHammond/status/823100058304397312?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email&iid=6800828b63e84791ae8915f52c0838d7&uid=1476790076&nid=244+272699392

Apologies if this has already appeared on a prev. thread.

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/alastairjam/status/823171893901611008

there's spin then there's selling your soul to the devil.......

MTimT said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

KNIFE IN THE HEART OF TSE, PTII
====================
I am not locking money up for over 11 yrs to get 10/1, and 1/25 is too short for the alternative.

That's not a knife in the heart, because I've said both bets are unappealing so no bets for me.

Wasn't it Spooner who wrote a note which at the bottom had a postscript saying "ignore this note"?

My favorite is signs that say "Don't read this sign"

My favourite sign was at Blakeney on the North Norfolk coast. There was a collection box on a wall by the quay, with a sign saying "Please give generously to feed the wild birds".

They had to put a further sign on it saying "Please do not put bread in the above slot."

An American tweets

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/823170241442226176

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

Is he talking about the Brexit vote?

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

Is he talking about the Brexit vote?

Trident misfire

'Twas a joke.

BudG said:

MTimT said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

KNIFE IN THE HEART OF TSE, PTII
====================
I am not locking money up for over 11 yrs to get 10/1, and 1/25 is too short for the alternative.

That's not a knife in the heart, because I've said both bets are unappealing so no bets for me.

Wasn't it Spooner who wrote a note which at the bottom had a postscript saying "ignore this note"?

My favorite is signs that say "Don't read this sign"

My favourite sign was at Blakeney on the North Norfolk coast. There was a collection box on a wall by the quay, with a sign saying "Please give generously to feed the wild birds".

They had to put a further sign on it saying "Please do not put bread in the above slot."

Very good. My favorite explanation of vote at the UN was when the Canadians were due to not participate (a step further than abstaining) on a roll-call vote, where all the West refused to participate while in the room, to make a point. However, the Canadian chair was empty when their name was called. So later they had to explain "Due to circumstances beyond our control, we were not here when the vote was called, but if we had been, we would not have participated in the vote."

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

Is he talking about the Brexit vote?

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/823169418767241216

If the sub was off florida and it was apparently aiming in the general direction of the Canaries that’s fairly severely off course!

The US is huge. Would they mind losing Florida?

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

Is he talking about the Brexit vote?

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/823169418767241216

If the sub was off florida and it was apparently aiming in the general direction of the Canaries that’s fairly severely off course!

Am I the only person who thinks this is utterly risible? The first thing you do when a weapons system doesn't work is not to make a song and dance about it and tell the enemy. You keep quiet about it and fix the problem.

A spoof, but this guy makes a lot of pertinent points (again)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RMwjaZouNY

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A spoof, but this guy makes a lot of pertinent points (again)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RMwjaZouNY

I do love Jon Pye. He has a brilliant way of expressing home truths about all sides of the argument.

I am surprised he hasn't been picked up by a tv network / show to do weekly 5 mins rants with this character.

perdix said:

MyBurningEars said:

Trident issues could have implications within Labour too. Brings the issue into the spotlight again, so can't bury it. And a big shot in the arm for the abolitionists. Harder to get them to keep their traps shut.

Not good news for May either, but I wonder how much will ultimately come out about all this.

All complex weapons systems have to undergo regular testing. There will occasionally be bugs which need sorting. It appears that the sub and the crew were certified as having passed the test. Perhaps the US designed missile had the bug. Nothing will come of this non story.

From the last thread....

At the risk of introducing facts.. as far as I can tell, since the beginning of the TRident II program, there have been 157 successful flight tests and 6 failures (including partial successes).

The classic method for estimating the maximum probability of failure is a very simple equation :

failures / total flights

See https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120013705.pdf

which gives us :

6/163 = 0.0368 = 3.6% maximum chance of failure.

This is considered a harsh maximum estimate, since most of the failures occurred in the early days of the program - which then conformed to the classic "bathtub" curve of early failures followed by massive increase in reliability.

This enables us to say that Trident II is reliable at delivering it's warheads to target as a *lower bound* (i.e. it is almost certainly better than this) of 96.3%

Which in historical terms makes it one of the most reliable weapons in human history....

Malmesbury said:

perdix said:

MyBurningEars said:

Trident issues could have implications within Labour too. Brings the issue into the spotlight again, so can't bury it. And a big shot in the arm for the abolitionists. Harder to get them to keep their traps shut.

Not good news for May either, but I wonder how much will ultimately come out about all this.

All complex weapons systems have to undergo regular testing. There will occasionally be bugs which need sorting. It appears that the sub and the crew were certified as having passed the test. Perhaps the US designed missile had the bug. Nothing will come of this non story.

From the last thread....

At the risk of introducing facts.. as far as I can tell, since the beginning of the TRident II program, there have been 157 successful flight tests and 6 failures (including partial successes).

The classic method for estimating the maximum probability of failure is a very simple equation :

failures / total flights

See https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20120013705.pdf

which gives us :

6/163 = 0.0368 = 3.6% maximum chance of failure.

This is considered a harsh maximum estimate, since most of the failures occurred in the early days of the program - which then conformed to the classic "bathtub" curve of early failures followed by massive increase in reliability.

This enables us to say that Trident II is reliable at delivering it's warheads to target as a *lower bound* (i.e. it is almost certainly better than this) of 96.3%

Which in historical terms makes it one of the most reliable weapons in human history....

Haven't you heard we are now in the post-truth / post-fact era....

Mr. G, happy birthday

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A spoof, but this guy makes a lot of pertinent points (again)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RMwjaZouNY

I do love Jon Pye. He has a brilliant way of expressing home truths about all sides of the argument.

I am surprised he hasn't been picked up by a tv network / show to do weekly 5 mins rants with this character.

He was - by Russia Today! Which I think has somewhat undermined his reputation. But I agree, he's a verbally dextrous, originally talent - who should now be given an opportunity by BBC2 or Channel 4.

malcolmg said:

FPT, Cheers to MBE, GIN and Simon for your good wishes. I do indeed have a little left Simon but very depleted now.

Ois Guade zu Deim Geburdstog!

AnneJGP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/823170241442226176

It's frequently claimed they can't be used without the knowledge of the US, so someone somewhere in the US must have known.

Knowledge is certainly true, the US spends a lot of money to detect missile launches. That's an entirely different matter from requiring US authority, which is claimed sometimes but almost certainly false.

MonikerDiCanio said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

A spoof, but this guy makes a lot of pertinent points (again)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RMwjaZouNY

Painfully unfunny and tired. Crap.

But he did make some good points.
Why has Trump such a thin skin, why does he lie when it's obvious he's lying?

JohnLilburne said:

OldKingCole said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

An American tweets

Is he talking about the Brexit vote?

https://twitter.com/fordm/status/823169418767241216

If the sub was off florida and it was apparently aiming in the general direction of the Canaries that’s fairly severely off course!

Am I the only person who thinks this is utterly risible? The first thing you do when a weapons system doesn't work is not to make a song and dance about it and tell the enemy. You keep quiet about it and fix the problem.

It would probably have helped if the MoD hadn't been in the habit of releasing little propaganda puff videos after previous successful firings but unaccountably forgot to this time; this might have provided even the crappiest intelligence services with a lightbulb moment. Still, the MoD have said 'We have absolute confidence in our independent nuclear deterrent' which will reassure everyone.

MikeK said:

malcolmg said:

FPT, Cheers to MBE, GIN and Simon for your good wishes. I do indeed have a little left Simon but very depleted now.

Oho! It's your birthday. Have a happy one and good luck for the year ahead.

cheers Mike

MTimT said:

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

KNIFE IN THE HEART OF TSE, PTII
====================
I am not locking money up for over 11 yrs to get 10/1, and 1/25 is too short for the alternative.

That's not a knife in the heart, because I've said both bets are unappealing so no bets for me.

Wasn't it Spooner who wrote a note which at the bottom had a postscript saying "ignore this note"?

My favorite is signs that say "Don't read this sign"

There was a "Please don't throw stones at this sign".

MarkHopkins said:

Presumably they would have warned the US, Russia, and China. Wouldn't want to have started WW3 by mistake.

For sure, and the US was likely doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the testing anyway as they have the kit.

Cartoon from Finland:
https://twitter.com/s2gray/status/823162258154995712

I don't see May lasting beyond 2025. I think she will be forced out even if she wins a majority in a general election by somebody more charismatic.

I have wondered about an early general election, I think spring 2019 is the likely date. My reasoning is several important factors come into play. First of all the boundary changes should have been implemented. Secondly and most importantly A50 will be running up toward it's expiry. Thirdly, austerity should give way to a more generous budget / giveaway, which means social security claimants/ public sector employees and the like experience growth in their income. Indeed I do wonder if the Tories have stalled on Brexit and A50 so they can get a mandate at the end of the two years after A50 has been triggered for the above reasons.